Monday, April 1, 2019

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL 2019 SEASON PREVIEW


CHICAGO CUBS
2018 Record: 95-68 (2nd in NL Central)
2018 Payroll: $194,259,933 (4th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
  1. CF Albert Almora Jr, .272/.314/.399, 1.3 WAR
  2. 3B Kris Bryant, .275/.382/.504, 5.5 WAR
  3. 1B Anthony Rizzo, .281/.385/.511, 4.3 WAR
  4. 2B Ben Zobrist, .268/.351/.406, 1.5 WAR
  5. SS Javier Baez, .269/.313/.488, 3.4 WAR
  6. LF Kyle Schwarber, .241/.354/.478, 2.9 WAR
  7. C Willson Contreras, .257/.340/.427, 2.8 WAR
  8. RF Jason Heyward, .269/.341/.405, 2.1 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
  1. Jon Lester, 192.0 IP/4.35 ERA/1.34 WHIP/1.9 WAR
  2. Cole Hamels, 172.0 IP/3.96 ERA/1.29 WHIP/2.4 WAR
  3. Kyle Hendricks, 194.0 IP/4.04 ERA/1.28 WHIP/2.6 WAR
  4. Yu Darvish, 139.0 IP/3.76 ERA/1.21 WHIP/2.6 WAR
  5. Jose Quintana, 186.0 IP/3.88 ERA/1.29 ERA/2.6 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
Well, depending on who you talk to, the Cubs offseason reactions range from terrible to exactly what they needed. Theo, Jed and Co. would describe it as a handicapped, but productive offseason. On the other hand, if you talk to Cubs fans, nobody is happy. But honestly, I’m not one of those fans.
Look, the reality is, the Cubs were never going to get Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. That chance went out the window when someone decided to give Jason Heyward $184 million dollars. And while that contract may never pay off on the field, let’s not forget one Jason Heyward rain delay speech in a game near the end of 2016. I think we can all agree we’d pay $184 million for a .230 average, Gold Glove right-field defense, and one 108-year-drought-snapping World Series title. Maybe they win without him, maybe they don’t. I wouldn’t take that chance, though.
Anyways, back to the point. The Cubs didn’t do much this offseason. They signed Daniel Descalso, and… that’s it. An uncharacteristically quiet offseason resulted in a lot of upset fans, but maybe a more motivated team than ever. And that brings us to the cusp of the 2019 season.
SEASON PREVIEW
The Cubs have been on top of the world the last four seasons. After bursting onto the scene in 2015, they’ve averaged 97 wins a season the last four seasons including a World Series win in 2016. Yet, in 2018 Epstein called the Cubs offense “broken,” and the pitching staff included walk-machine Tyler Chatwood and an injured Yu Darvish. That doesn’t sound like a team that will win 79 games this year and place last in the NL Central (I’m looking at you PECOTA projections). Seriously, though, even if you dislike the Cubs or just like a different team better, you cannot objectively say it is likely for the Cubs to win 79 games this year. To win 95 games and then return Kris Bryant, Yu Darvish, and motivation to the Cubs lineup… 79 games—I mean, c’mon.
I won’t make this too long—I just want to point out some other things about the 2018 Cubs. First, Willson Contreras just never hit his stride, offensively, at any point in the season. He slashed .249/.339/.390 a year removed from .276/.356/.499. Even if he truly is closer to his 2018 line than his 2017 line, you’d still expect a little regression to the mean upwards in 2019. And even without a potent offensive year like 2017, the cannon arm and smart catching skills still makes him one of the more valuable catchers in all of the MLB. Secondly, Kris Bryant was on the disabled (now, injured) list half the season and the other half was still injured but playing through it. He had a red-hot April with an OPS well north of 1.000 and then that headfirst slide ruined it all. Watch for him to come back with a renewed motivation this season. More on that in a bit.
What I’m really trying to say about the 2019 Cubs is yes, the NL Central will be hard to win (the only division in baseball where all five teams are competing) but the Cubs are still in pole position in my book—especially the way Milwaukee’s rotation seems to be shaky by the end of the season. The Reds made a bunch of moves, Milwaukee got Moustakas and Jimmy Nelson back, the Cardinals got Goldschmidt, and yet—none of that discourages me from believing the Cubs can win the NL Central. It will be harder than any other year of the last four, but it must be those 108 years of losing that gives me blind faith that the Cubs will be good this year.
Predicted Record: 97-65
Player to Watch: 3B Kris Bryant
Is it possible for a Rookie of the Year and then sophomore NL MVP to be underrated? Because everyone has been talking far too much about Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, and Anthony Rendon. Kris Bryant will bounce back in a huge way this year. Remember how I said he had a red-hot start in April? Imagine if he doesn’t injure his shoulder on that headfirst slide? That was the best start he had had since breaking into the league in 2015. He has another gear that we haven’t even seen yet, and he was already the NL MVP (the World Series bid may have had a little something to do with that, though.) Either way, watch out—Bryzzo is back.
Player to Watch: SP Yu Darvish
I’m going to seem pretty stupid referencing this article here, but I have to share it again. If Yu Darvish can remain healthy, he is one of the filthiest pitchers in baseball. And he slots in fourth in the Cubs rotation right now. If he can perform in Chicago (which is a big “if” still) the Cubs could have one of the best rotations in all of baseball. And I honestly believe it will depend on his first two starts. There are three possibilities I see happening: one, he has a decent first start and gets a little confidence and the second start is lights out—has a solid rest of the year. Two, he has a fantastic first start and gets a little confidence and the second start is lights out—has a solid rest of the year. Third, he has a middling first start and gets a little more unsure of himself, the second start is worse and we’ve time traveled back to 2018. In all seriousness, if Yu can pull himself back together, this rotation is scary.
Manager to Watch: Joe Maddon
After last season’s epic fail down the stretch, Maddon and the rest of the coaching staff came under a lot of criticism, including some fans calling for his firing. While I don’t think he should be fired, I think it will be interesting to watch Maddon in “desperation mode” (well, maybe not desperation, but urgency mode?) for the first time in his Cubs tenure. In Theo’s own words, this is a year of reckoning for the Cubs. Will this team be the dynasty that they looked like in 2016? Or the team that never did put it together again like 2017 and 2018?
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
2018 Record: 88-74 (3rd in NL Central)
2018 Payroll: $163,784,311 (8th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
  1. 3B Matt Carpenter, .251/.373/.459, 3.6 WAR
  2. SS Paul DeJong, .254/.311/.449, 3.1 WAR
  3. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, .277/.385/.489, 4.3 WAR
  4. LF Marcell Ozuna. .289/.346/.492, 3.6 WAR
  5. C Yadier Molina, .267/.317/.415, 2.8 WAR
  6. CF Harrison Bader, .246/.308/.399, 2.1 WAR
  7. RF Dexter Fowler, .239/.341/.390, 0.7 WAR
  8. 2B Kolten Wong, .262/.342/.406, 2.0 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
  1. Miles Mikolas, 198 IP/4.04 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 2.7 WAR
  2. Jack Flaherty, 164 IP/3.69 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 2.8 WAR
  3. Michael Wacha, 100 IP/4.20 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
  4. Adam Wainwright, 110 IP/4.20 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 1.3 WAR
  5. Austin Gomber, 27 IP/4.33 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
  6. Carlos Martinez, 139 IP/3.92 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
After finishing 3rd in the NL Central in 2018 and missing the postseason for the third consecutive season, the Cardinals looked to make major improvements to their roster for 2019. St. Louis moved quickly to acquire six-time All Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, sending reliever Luke Weaver, backup catcher Carson Kelly, prospect Andy Young, and a Compensation Round B pick in the 2019 draft to Arizona in exchange. This package sacrifices some roster depth, but is a small price to pay for a franchise player who has finished top 3 in NL MVP voting in three of the last six seasons. Goldschmidt is also a three-time Gold Glove winner, and while first base is not a premier defensive position, it will at least slightly improve a Cardinals defense that committed more errors than any other team in the Majors last year.
The biggest problem for St. Louis following the 2018 campaign was undoubtedly their bullpen: the team’s relievers finished 22nd in K/9 (8.31) and 24th in LOB% (71.1), and had the second-highest BB/9 (4.34) as well as the eleventh-highest ERA (4.38). The bullpen posted a measly 0.5 combined fWAR in 2018, good for 25th in the league and more than two wins behind any NL team that made the playoffs in 2018. As such, the team made a productive move in signing lefty reliever Andrew Miller to a two-year deal. Coming off of a down year plagued by injuries, Miller will look to return to the dominant form he showed in 2016 and 2017, earning All Star honors in each and finishing both seasons with his FIP under 2.00 and ERA under 3.5.
The Cardinals also made moves in an attempt to secure their starting rotation, such as tying down surprise star Miles Mikolas on a four-year extension and resigning longtime Cardinal Adam Wainwright to a one-year deal. However, injury concerns will warrant doubt for this rotation going into the season (more on this later), and with names like Gio Gonzalez still on the free agent market at the time of this article’s writing, this rotation might not even be fully set yet.
SEASON PREVIEW
The NL Central will be one of the more competitive divisions in baseball this year: between the moves made by St. Louis, Cincinnati’s blockbuster trade with the Dodgers, and the various improvements made by playoff incumbents Milwaukee and Chicago, the fight for the top spot will be fierce. Despite a few question marks heading into the season, the St. Louis Cardinals will have a more legitimate shot at winning the division than they have the past three years.
The first issue the Cardinals will face will be the health and durability of their starting pitchers. The team will most likely be without two-time All Star Carlos Martinez to begin the season, as he has been dealing with injuries dating back to last May. Former top prospect Alex Reyes is currently in the process of returning from surgery, and whether or not he will even be on the Major League roster for opening day is still uncertain, let alone if manager Mike Shildt will use him as a rotation or bullpen piece. Without Martinez or Reyes as options, the Cardinals will likely have the inexperienced Austin Gomber slot in as their fifth starter. The injury woes do not end there: 2013 NLCS MVP Michael Wacha was sidelined in late June, and Adam Wainwright spent significant time on the DL.
However, in spite of three of their established starters and their top pitching prospect combining for just 42 total appearances in 2018, the Cards still managed to get good production out of their rotation. The team’s starters finished 2018 with the 5th-lowest ERA (3.52) and 7th-lowest FIP (3.78) in the league, astounding numbers for a team that started Luke Weaver in 25 games. Miles Mikolas earned every penny of the $68 million extension he signed in February, throwing just over 200 IP with a 2.83 ERA, and rookie Jack Flaherty showed promise with a 10.85 K/9. If those two can build upon their success in 2018, and injuries are not a concern down the stretch, the Cardinals rotation will be formidable; otherwise, starting pitching will be a priority for St. Louis at the trade deadline.
The next problem St. Louis must resolve in 2019 is how effective the bullpen will be, and how Andrew Miller will be used. With his injuries firmly in the rear-view mirror and a more pitcher-friendly home stadium than he’s ever had, Miller is poised for a comeback in 2019. The lefty will synergize well with right-handed reliever Jordan Hicks, who will look to improve on his productive rookie season. If Reyes returns and is used out of the bullpen, he will provide another effective righty option later in games. The rest of the Cardinals bullpen is patchwork at best: names such as Chasen Shreve and Brett Cecil do not exactly strike fear into the hearts of opposing batters. Mike Shildt will have quite the task in managing this bullpen, especially if the starters break down early in games.
The last major question mark for the Cardinals in 2019 surrounds one player: right fielder Dexter Fowler. After the 2016 season, the Cards inked Fowler to a five-year deal worth $82.5 million hoping he would continue the All Star-caliber production he displayed as a member of the 2016 World Series-winning Cubs. His first year was decent, but he completely fell off in 2018, slashing .180/.278/.298 and posting -1.4 fWAR with poor defensive numbers. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak called into question his effort level during the season, but Fowler still recorded 334 plate appearances in 2018 and projects to be the team’s starting right fielder for opening day. Hopefully Fowler can shake off the down year, but if he hits below the Mendoza line and plays subpar defense for so much as the first month or two, do not be surprised if he is benched in favor of another outfielder like Tyler O’Neill.
With that being said, it must be noted that the lineup is now one of the best in the NL, arguably in all of baseball. The Cards have added the best first baseman and one of the top hitters in baseball by acquiring Paul Goldschmidt, who has recorded over 5 fWAR in five of the last six seasons. St. Louis’s key acquisition from last offseason, left fielder Marcell Ozuna, regressed in 2018 from the previous season, but has already demonstrated his upside at the plate in his monster 2017 season. Third baseman Matt Carpenter can be streaky, but has yet to post an OBP below .365 in his career, making him effective as a leadoff hitter. Veteran catcher Yadier Molina will continue to defy age, and second baseman Kolten Wong should improve after a middling 2018. With big names on the roster as well as young talent, such as skilled defender Harrison Bader and 2017 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Paul DeJong, the Cards will boast a very formidable lineup going into the 2019 season.
A final thought about the Cardinals heading into the 2019 season is that they will have a full season with Mike Shildt as their manager. Rephrased, the Cardinals will no longer have to suffer through Mike Matheny managing the team in 2019. At the All Star break last season, the Cards were on pace for an 82-80 record and fired Matheny, naming Shildt as the interim manager. After the break, the Cardinals were one of the hottest teams in baseball, going 40-28 to close out the season; a full season at that pace would lead to a 95-66 finish. The numbers speak for themselves here. Matheny was cited as a poor tactician with no concept of how to manage his bullpen, and also had a poor rapport with some of the younger members of the team. A full season with a significantly better manager at the helm is certainly something to look forward to for Cardinals fans.
The St. Louis Cardinals have made a concerted effort to improve after a disappointing finish to the 2018 season, and appear ready to do serious damage in the NL Central. FanGraphs projects that the Cards will nab one of the highly-coveted, hotly-contested Wild Card spots, beating out teams that made the playoffs in 2018 like the Braves, Brewers, and Rockies. Whether or not they do remains to be determined, but one thing is for certain: watching the Redbirds vie for a return to the postseason in 2019 should be even more entertaining than it has been in recent years.
Record Prediction: 90-72
Player to Watch #1: 1B Paul Goldschmidt
The trade may have garnered less attention than it deserved in the shadow of the Machado-Harper sweepstakes, but it cannot be overstated how significant of an addition Goldschmidt is, as he steps right into a role as the team’s superstar. For perspective, the four-time Silver Slugger had a higher OPS (.922), wRC+ (145), and fWAR (5.1) than any qualified Cardinals hitter in 2018. Scarily, last season was only a decent one by Goldy’s standards, whose career highs in the previously-specified categories are 1.005, 163, and 7.2 respectively. It is worth noting that Busch Stadium is much less hitter-friendly than is Chase Field, and seeing how Goldschmidt will adjust should be interesting. The 31-year-old has one year left on his contract, and watching how the extension talks between him and the Cardinals progress will also be interesting.
Player to Watch #2: SP Jack Flaherty
After picking up stray votes for Rookie of the Year in 2018, the young righty will serve as a formidable second starter behind Mikolas. The 2019 season will be Flaherty’s first full season in the Majors, after being optioned back to AAA multiple times early last year. He showed flashes of excellence throughout the 2018 season, picking up 182 SO in 151 IP and finishing with a solid 3.34 ERA and 3.86 FIP. Flaherty will be relied on heavily to perform well in 2019, given all the concerns surrounding the Cardinals starters. Flaherty also was not perfect in 2018: he had a rather high HR/FB% at 15.2, as well as a high 3.52 BB/9. If he can resolve his issues with the long ball and keep his walk rate down, Flaherty will earn the notion of a high-end starter.
Player to Watch #3: 3B Matt Carpenter
Carpenter has shown great fluctuation in his numbers from season-to-season, but 2018 was a breakout year for him specifically in terms of his power numbers. A mechanical change along with some magic salsa led him to career highs in HR (36) and SLG (.532), while still keeping his OBP (.374) and walks (102) numbers on par with his career averages. If Carpenter can carry this power surge into 2019, he will be a force to be reckoned with in the leadoff spot. The acquisition of Goldschmidt will force Carpenter to play more third base than any other position. Carpenter’s -2 DRS at third is at least comparable to his 1 DRS at first, but his -12.0 UZR is noticeably worse than his -0.1 UZR at first. In a Cardinals defense that was quite poor in 2018, hopefully Carpenter can hold his own in the hot corner.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2018 Record: 82-79 (4th in NL Central)
2018 Payroll: $91,025,861 (27th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
  1. 2B Adam Frazier, .273/.339/.397, 2.0 WAR
  2. CF Starling Marte, .282/.334/.441, 3.3 WAR
  3. LF Corey Dickerson, .275/.317/.466, 1.5 WAR
  4. 1B Josh Bell, .271/.359/.445, 1.8 WAR
  5. C Francisco Cervelli, .256/.357/.382, 2.0 WAR
  6. 3B Colin Moran, .265/.328/.407, 1.0 WAR
  7. SS Erik Gonzalez, .257/.292/.379, 0.3 WAR
  8. RF Lonnie Chisenhall, .259/.321/.413, 0.4 WAR
RF returning in May: Gregory Polanco, .259/.335/.454, 1.4 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
  1. Jameson Taillon, 190 IP/3.91 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 3.3 WAR
  2. Chris Archer, 191 IP/3.66 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 3.7 WAR
  3. Trevor Williams, 145 IP/4.72 ERA/1.44 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
  4. Joe Musgrove, 162 IP/4.03 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 2.4 WAR
  5. Nick Kingham, 113 IP/4.51 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 0.8 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
Once again, the Pirates had a very quiet offseason. While every other team in the NL Central has been making moves, the Pirates have done the bare minimum. On offense, they replaced shortstop Jordy Mercer by trading bench players Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff to the Indians for Erik Gonzalez, a mediocre infielder blocked by the Indians infield. To replace the injured Gregory Polanco, the Pirates signed free agents Lonnie Chisenhall and Melky Cabrera to battle for the starting right field job. Other than stealing the Indians’ leftovers, the Pirates did nothing to help their mediocre offense.
On the pitching side, the Pirates have been slightly more involved than they were on offense. They traded starter Ivan Nova to the White Sox to save money, because the Pirates definitely couldn’t afford to pay $9,000,000 for one more year of a decent 5th starter. To replace Nova, they signed Jordan Lyles, who struggled as a starter last season but was solid as a reliever. Reuniting with Francisco Liriano and signing Tyler Lyons should help bolster the bullpen, but other than a couple mediocre signings, the Pirates had yet another quiet offseason.
SEASON PREVIEW
After a surprisingly successful season, many Pirates fans hoped that the team would spend money to improve the offense, but, as usual, the front office did nothing. While this normally would not disqualify a team from making the playoffs, the rest of the NL Central has significantly bulked up over the offseason. Even the Reds, who lost 95 games last year, made big trades and spent money on free agents. All these moves makes the NL Central one of the best divisions in baseball; and leaves the Pirates behind.
By far the best part of the Pirates’ season last year was the rotation. Ace Jameson Taillon finally pitched to his full potential, finishing with a 3.20 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. After starting slow, Taillon finished the second half with a 2.33 ERA, basically the opposite of his 2017 season. His emergence as a true top-of-the-rotation arm is one of the biggest reasons why the Pirates were better than expected last year. Another big surprise last season was when the Pirates traded Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz for Chris Archer at the trade deadline. While the price was very high for a pitcher who has had his ups and downs, the Buccos will have one of the best 1-2 punches in the majors if Archer can return to prior form.
Trevor Williams was one of the biggest surprises in the majors last season. With a low K% and a higher-than-average BB%, he was expected to be a serviceable #4 starter. However, after a mediocre first half, he ended the season with a 1.38 ERA in 72 IP, finishing behind only AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell for lowest second-half ERA. His style of inducing contact makes his performance volatile, and a 3.11 ERA isn’t likely to be repeated, but stranger things have happened. Another pitcher who took a step forward was Joe Musgrove, acquired in the Gerrit Cole trade before the season. After missing time due to injuries, Musgrove started out hot before fading over the last two months. With a fully healthy season, Musgrove should be an above-average arm in the middle of the rotation. The back end of the rotation is much more questionable than the rest. Jordan Lyles and Nick Kingham figure to get most of the starts, with Mitch Keller waiting in the wings. Lyles pitched well out of the bullpen for the Padres last season but was roughed up as a starter, and Kingham struggled in the rotation after a historic first start. Neither of these options are ideal, but even with a weak #5 starter, the Pirates’ rotation should rank among the best in the majors.
In the bullpen, closer Felipe Vazquez changed his last name and proved that he is one of the top closers in the game. With a strikeout rate of 11.44 K/9 and a 2.43 FIP, Vazquez should be a top-10 closer in baseball, if not better. In the setup role, Kyle Crick, acquired in the McCutchen trade, and Keone Kela, acquired from the Rangers, provides solid support for Vazquez. Michael Feliz struggled mightily last season, but should get a second chance, and Richard Rodriguez, who had a breakout campaign, should be a very good middle reliever. The rest of the bullpen should be composed of some combination of Francisco Liriano, Tyler Lyons, Steven Brault, and one of Jordan Lyles/Nick Kingham.
On the offensive side of the ball, Starling Marte returns as the star of the team. He proved he could play even without steroids, hitting 20 homers and stealing 33 bases along with good defense in center field, compiling a 3.7 fWAR. He is projected to lead the Pirates’ offense again this year along with left fielder Corey Dickerson. Dickerson, who was considered a power hitter, ended up hitting .300 with only 13 home runs. His very low walk rate is a concern, but he dropped his strikeout rate by almost 10%. The biggest surprise from Dickerson, however, was his Gold Glove winning defense. Before last season, Dickerson was seen as a defensive liability in the outfield, but in 2018 he put in the work in the offseason and won a Gold Glove.
In right field, Gregory Polanco had a semi-breakout campaign before forgetting how to slide in September. His batting average is still low, but he almost doubled his walk rate and set a career high in home runs. His injury will cause him to miss at least the first month of the season, but his return should provide a boost to the offense. While Polanco is out, right field will be manned by Lonnie Chisenhall, the oft-injured Indians’ utility man. Chisenhall has showed promise over the last two seasons, but he has only played 110 games in that time. If he can stay healthy, Chisenhall should help fill the void until Polanco returns.
Up the middle, the Pirates let both Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison walk away in free agency. Replacing Harrison at second base is Adam Frazier, a utility player who makes a lot of contact but has little power. There is a chance that he can reach double digits in home runs and stolen bases, as well as hitting around .300. At shortstop, the tandem of Erik Gonzalez and one-half of the Seinfeld duo Kevin Newman should see most of the AB’s. Gonzalez projects as a glove-first player with little offensive output, while Newman should fare a little better on offense while sacrificing some defensive ability. Both have very little power, but Newman has potential to steal 20 bases after stealing 28 in AAA last season. While neither position will be a game-changer, they should both provide an upgrade over Mercer and Harrison.
The corner infield is very difficult to predict for this season. While Josh Bell and Colin Moran should start at first and third, respectively, that may change during the season. Bell had a great rookie season, but lost all of his power last year. His high walk rate will keep his value, but he needs to find his home run swing if he wants job security. Moran makes a decent amount of contact, but also has little power and walks a below-average amount. To make matters worse, both Bell and Moran are bad defenders at their position, with Bell ranking second-to-last in defensive WAR at first base. Waiting in the wings is Jung-Ho Kang, who returns after missing the last two seasons with a visa issue. Kang was a good player when he played, but nobody knows how he will do after two years away. If Moran struggles, Kang will almost certainly take over the starting third base job.
One of the best positions on the Pirates last season was catcher, with Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz both having breakout offensive seasons. Cervelli set a career high in home runs and increased his walk rate to 12.6%, but also missed time with several different injuries. Despite Cervelli’s injuries, the catcher position was taken care of thanks to Elias Diaz’s breakout. Diaz hit .288 with 10 home runs in only 277 at bats along with providing above-average defense. With Cervelli fully healthy, the catcher position should be all set for the upcoming season.
Down on the farm, the Pirates farm system is more depleted than usual after trading Glasnow, Meadows, and Baz for Chris Archer. However, Mitch Keller is still very highly regarded and should be fighting for a rotation spot by the end of the season. On the offensive side of the ball, third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes had a big breakout season, becoming a top-50 prospect. Next year, he will likely push Colin Moran for the starting third base job, if not by the end of the season. Draft pick Travis Swaggerty has not just a fantastic last name but also the potential to be a future All-Star and 6’6” shortstop Oneil Cruz has a lot of power. Both are still a couple of seasons away, but show that the Pirates farm system still has some strength.
Overall, the Pirates definitely have the potential to be Wild Card contenders. A full season of Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove will help the rotation, and some of the young players have the potential to break out. However, it will be very difficult to compete with the rest of the NL Central, seeing how every other team has made impactful moves this offseason. If the Pirates stay healthy and have a couple more breakout performances, they definitely have a shot at the playoffs, but they’ll have a hard time getting there.
Projected Record: 87-75
Player to Watch: Chris Archer, SP
Chris Archer is somewhat of an enigma. His stats suggest that he should be a very good pitcher, striking out a lot of hitters without walking too many. He hasn’t had an ERA under 4.00 since 2015, but in each of the last two seasons his FIP has been over 50 points lower than his ERA. Unfortunately, also over the last two seasons, his hard-hit rate has skyrocketed to almost 40% and his HR/9 is slightly above league average. After coming over to the Pirates at the trade deadline last season, he pitched badly in August but had a strong September. If Archer can regain the ability that made him one of the best pitchers from 2013-2015, then he will provide a huge boost to the Pirates rotation. If not, then the Pirates paid too much for an average starter.
Player to Watch: Mitch Keller, SP
As the Pirates top prospect and a top 20 prospect in MLB, the expectations for Keller are pretty high. After starting the season in Double-A and dominating the competition, Keller was moved up to AAA at the end of June. While he struggled at first in AAA, he ended up with a 3.22 FIP and started the All-Star Futures Game. His fastball is widely regarded as one of the best in the minors, and his curveball is a good strikeout pitch. While Keller is going to start the season in AAA, he will be the next man up in case of an injury or bad pitching. It would not be surprising to see him make a couple of starts by the end of the season, and then taking a starting job for good next season.
Player to Watch: Josh Bell, 1B
After a solid rookie season where he finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, expectations were high for Bell last season. While he did raise his walk rate and lower his strikeout rate, Bell’s power essentially disappeared. His home run total dropped from 26 in 2017 to 12 in 2018, and his SLG dropped from .466 to .411. What’s worrying about the drop in power is that it may not be a fluke. Bell’s HR/FB% dropped from 19.1% to 9.2% in 2018, which is right around league average. In addition to his drop in power, Bell is one of the worst defensive first basemen in the league. Despite this, he definitely has the potential to hit .275 with 25+ homers every season. His walk rate and solid contact ability, along with his potential of power, will keep him in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future. If he can’t improve, though, the Pirates should probably start looking for a replacement.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
2018 Record: 96-67 (1st in NL Central)
2018 Payroll: $108,982,016 (22nd in MLB)
2019 Projected Lineup
  1. CF Lorenzo Cain, .284 AVG/.356 OBP/.422 SLG, 3.7 WAR
  2. RF Christian Yelich, .297 AVG/.381 OBP/.515 SLG, 5.0 WAR
  3. 1B Jesus Aguilar, .242 AVG/.317 OBP/.454 SLG, 1.1 WAR
  4. 3B Travis Shaw, .249 AVG/.334 OBP/.457 SLG, 2.7 WAR
  5. LF Ryan Braun, .265 AVG/.330 OBP/.476 SLG, 1.6 WAR
  6. 2B Mike Moustakas, .261 AVG/.321 OBP/.489 SLG, 2.4 WAR
  7. C Yasmani Grandal, .237 AVG/.344 OBP/.453 SLG, 5.2 WAR
  8. SS Orlando Arcia, .253 AVG/.302 OBP/.377 SLG, 1.1 WAR
2019 Projected Rotation:
  1. Jhoulys Chacin, 187.0 IP/4.65 ERA/1.41 WHIP, 1.3 WAR
  2. Chase Anderson, 145.0 IP/4.93 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 0.9 WAR
  3. Zach Davies, 161.0 IP/4.59 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 1.3 WAR
  4. Jimmy Nelson, 112.0 IP/4.13 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
  5. Brandon Woodruff, 134.0 IP/4.39 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 1.3 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
The Brewers knocked it out of the park last offseason, trading for 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich, signing star center fielder Lorenzo Cain, and making several under-the-radar pitching acquisitions, including starter Wade Miley. After falling one game short of a World Series berth, the team had a much quieter offseason in 2019.
Their biggest addition was catcher Yasmani Grandal, who signed a 1 year/$18.25 million deal with the team despite receiving several multi-year offers from other teams. While he posted a fantastic regular season for the Dodgers, he slumped badly in the postseason. Facing his future team in Game 1 of the NLCS, he became the first catcher in postseason history to allow two passed balls and two errors in the same game, and he eventually found himself riding the bench. The Brewers certainly hope he can put his poor October in the past and once again post top-flight catcher numbers. Regardless, he should be an upgrade over last year’s catcher tandem of Manny Pina and Erik Kratz.
The Brewers also notably non-tendered Jonathan Schoop. Acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline for Jonathan Villar and two prospects, he was expected to provide a stabilizing presence in the middle infield. Instead, he posted a disappointing .202/.246/.331 batting line in 46 games for the Brewers and never seemed to really fit in. To replace Schoop at second base, the Brewers are turning to fellow trade deadline acquisition Mike Moustakas. Moustakas, who re-signed with the Brewers on a 1-year contract, has never played an inning at second base in his career, but the team believes he can make the switch and provide adequate defense at the position next season. If the Moustakas at second base experiment fails, the team has a plethora of options, including moving Travis Shaw back to the keystone (where he spent time after the team acquired Moustakas last season) or plugging top prospect Keston Hiura into the infield. The Brewers also signed utility man Cory Spangenberg to a major league pact, who will provide depth at second base and elsewhere around the diamond. 
In the outfield, the Brewers traded away two intriguing young talents whose path was blocked in the majors – Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton. Santana was sent to the Mariners for Ben Gamel, who the team believes is a better fit as their fourth outfielder, as well as pitching prospect Noah Zavalos. Broxton, meanwhile, was sent to the New York Mets for pitcher Bobby Wahl and two prospects. The team is very high on Wahl’s potential as a reliever; however, they will have to wait until the 2020 season after Wahl was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. 
Beyond Wahl, the Brewers made two other moves to augment the bullpen this offseason, trading for Alex Claudio and signing Jake Petricka. Claudio, who the team acquired from the Rangers, gives the Brewers another left-handed option behind 2018 breakout star Josh Hader. Petricka is coming off of a down year with the Toronto Blue Jays, posting a 4.53 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in 41 games, and the team certainly hopes he can rebound to his 2014-2015 peaks when he was one of the best relievers on the White Sox.
In the rotation, the Brewers took a couple hits after losing Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez, who was acquired at the now-extinct August trade deadline from the Nationals, was great down the stretch for the team, posting a 2.13 ERA in 5 September starts. While he is still a free agent as spring training winds down, there has been little indication that the Brewers are seriously interested in a reunion. Miley, meanwhile, will not be a Brewer in 2019 after signing a 1 year/$4.5 million deal with the Astros. His presence will certainly be missed in the rotation, as he had a fantastic comeback season in 2018 following two subpar seasons. While these losses are less than ideal, the Brewers have a lot of candidates to step into the rotation.
SEASON PREVIEW
There is a lot to be excited about for Milwaukee Brewers fans. Falling just one game short of the World Series last season, expectations are sky high. The team will once again be led by MVP outfielder (and my personal man crush) Christian Yelich, who single-handedly propelled the Brewers to a division title with a monster second half. 
How good was Yelich’s second half? I’m glad you asked. In 256 at-bats, he posted a triple-slash of .367/.449/.770 to go with 25 home runs, 67 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases. You read that right. Not only did Yelich average a home run for every 10 at-bats in the second half, the 25 home runs were higher than any of his previous single-season totals. He fell just short of becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner since 1920, falling just two homers and an RBI behind the leaders. And he did all of this at the ripe age of 26. He is just entering his prime, and he should be one of the most entertaining players to watch in Major League Baseball next season. 
In case you aren’t convinced that Christian Yelich is amazing, here is more proof of how doggone special he is:
Beyond Yelich, the Brewers boast one of the deepest lineups in all of baseball. Lorenzo Cain was one of the most dynamic leadoff hitters in the league last season and will anchor the center field position for the Brewers again. Ryan Braun returns to round out the outfield, and while his 2018 numbers don’t pop out at you, he finished hot to the end the season and will provide a stabilizing veteran presence. Jesus Aguilar broke out in a big way in 2018, clubbing 35 home runs in 492 at-bats and will give opposing pitchers fits in the middle of the lineup. He will be joined in the infield by Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas, two of the league’s more underappreciated players. They both played integral roles in the team’s playoff run last season, and are forces to be reckoned with in the middle of the Brewers lineup. The previously mentioned Yasmani Grandal will slot in at catcher, while Orlando Arcia returns at shortstop. After struggling to the tune of a 54 wRC+ during the regular season, Arcia turned it up in the postseason, slugging three home runs in 33 at-bats. The Brewers certainly hope he can build upon that performance and establish himself as an above-average shortstop in 2019. 
While the Brewers boast an elite offense, their bullpen might be even better. Josh Hader is arguably the best left-handed reliever in baseball, posting a whopping 15.82 K/9 ratio in 2018 to go with a strong 2.43 ERA. His teammate Jeremy Jeffress was just as effective in 2018, posting a minuscule 1.29 ERA while taking over the closer role in the middle of the season. Fellow reliever Corey Knebel rebounded from a rough mid-season stretch by throwing 16 1/3 scoreless innings in September. If these three relievers are on their A-game in 2019, the Brewers could easily lead the league in bullpen ERA. Behind their top three bullpen arms, the Brewers also possess many quality options, including Taylor Williams, Jacob Barnes, and Junior Guerra.
The deep bullpen should help overcome their shortcomings in the rotation. Jhoulys Chacin returns to front the Brewers. His 3.50 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 116 ERA+ are not elite numbers, but Chacin should provide a stabilizing presence for the rotation and give the team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. Chase Anderson took a step back last season, as his ERA was nearly a run higher than his breakout 2017 season (2.74 to 3.93). Perhaps more alarming, his FIP was a mediocre 5.22 and his strikeout rate dropped in 2018. Anderson has continuously outperformed his FIP, so perhaps he can do so again in 2019; however, it is definitely something for the Brewers to keep an eye on. Zach Davies has exhibited the potential to become a reliable mid-rotation arm in 2016 and 2017, posting sub-4 ERAs in both seasons. However, he struggled badly in 2018, posting a 4.77 ERA in 13 starts and never regained form after suffering a shoulder injury. A bounce-back season would go a long way for the Brewers in 2019.
Jimmy Nelson is projected to return to the rotation after missing the entire 2018 season. He broke out in a big way in 2017, posting a solid 3.49 ERA and 3.05 FIP. If he can effectively shake off the rust after such a long layoff, he could easily emerge as the Brewers best starter in 2019. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes both received the opportunity for their first extended major league run in 2018, posting solid seasons, primarily out of the bullpen. Both came up as starters through the minor leagues, and both should be given a chance to see if they can be effective major league starters. Overall, while the Brewers lack a true world beater and have many questions throughout their rotation, they possess a number of intriguing talents that should make them a formidable unit in 2019.
Record Prediction: 86-76
A lot of my fellow writers in M-SABR will disagree with this prediction. The Brewers might not have had the flashy offseason that the Cardinals or Reds had, and they certainly don’t boast an expensive, big-name rotation like the Cubs. However, let’s not forget they won the division, had the most wins in the entire National League, and came very close to a World Series berth last season. The Brewers have a lot of talent offensively and on their pitching staff, and there is no reason to believe they cannot win the division again in 2019.
Player to Watch #1: 3B Travis Shaw
I already devoted an entire paragraph to Christian Yelich, so I am going to turn my attention to an underrated cog in the Brewers lineup, Travis Shaw. Shaw followed up a breakout 2017 season with a fantastic effort in 2018, posting a .241/.345/.480 triple slash to go with 32 HRs and a 119 wRC+. He impressively maintained his strong performance while transitioning to second base after the Brewers acquired Moustakas at the trade deadline. Shaw will move back to third base for the 2019 season, and with on-base machines Yelich and Cain batting ahead of him in the lineup, he is in a prime position to drive in 100+ runs in 2019.
Player to Watch #2: SP Jimmy Nelson
2018 was a rough year for Jimmy Nelson. Following a breakout 2017 season, it appeared that he would anchor the Brewers rotation in 2018. Unfortunately, elbow surgery derailed his season before he could even get started. After a rough Spring Training debut, he threw three solid innings in his second appearance against the White Sox. While Nelson still has a lot of work to do to recapture his 2017 form, the early returns are promising for a Brewers team that is in desperate need of an ace. 
Player to Watch #3: 2B Keston Hiura
The Brewers have traded many prospects over the past year to improve their major league team. Through all of the trades, they have held onto Keston Hiura, and for good reason. Hiura is one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues, hitting for a high average while racking up 13 home runs and 15 stolen bases in 123 games between High-A and Double-A. Hiura is projected to begin 2019 in Triple-A, but it should not be too long before he is knocking down the door for the Major Leagues. While the Brewers appear to have second base locked down with Mike Moustakas, Hiura could easily force a mid-season promotion if he continues to progress with his bat.
CINCINNATI REDS
2018 Record: 67-95 (5th NL Central)
2018 Payroll: 100,365,708 (25th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
  1. LF Jesse Winker, .284/.377/.439, 1.9 WAR
  2. CF Nick Senzel, .276/.339/.448, 1.6 WAR
  3. 1B Joey Votto, .278/.409/.464, 3.4 WAR
  4. 3B Eugenio Suarez, .257/.348/.466, 3.4 WAR
  5. 2B Scooter Gennett, .262/.313/.427, 1.3 WAR
  6. RF Yasiel Puig, .276/.351/.501, 3.1 WAR
  7. SS Jose Peraza, .281/.322/.398, 2.0 WAR
  8. C Tucker Barnhart, .247/.323/.373, 2.0 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
  1. Sonny Gray, 154.0 IP/3.89 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 2.5 WAR
  2. Alex Wood, 137.0 IP/4.00 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.9 WAR
  3. Luis Castillo, 173.0 IP/4.00 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 2.6 WAR
  4. Tanner Roark, 143.0 IP/4.56 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 1.4 WAR
  5. Anthony DeSclafani, 153.0 IP/4.34 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 1.8 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
After an active, hectic, and overall exciting offseason, the Reds come into 2019 with an overhauled rotation and a brand new outlook. They began this offseason by addressing the coaching staff. Only Freddie Benavides remains from the disappointing 2018 season. While the team did look a little better under interim manager Jim “I Like Big Bunts and I Cannot Lie” Riggleman, it was clear that they needed to bring in a new, younger, more analytically-driven leader. Enter David Bell.
If you were to rank the David B’s of the world (as one does), Coach Bell doesn’t quite live up to the immortal Byrne. But while Bell doesn’t have something like “Once in a Lifetime” or even “Slippery People” on his résumé, he still is the clear man for the job. The Cincinnati native emerged victorious from a lengthy list of qualified candidates that included new Twins manager Rocco Baldelli, Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo, and a mysterious mustachioed fellow named “Pryan Brice.” Bell has spent the last six seasons with the Cubs, Cardinals, and Giants. During this time, he has become acclimated to analytics, the likes of which have never been seen in the home dugout at Great American Ballpark. In his own words, Bell plans to use all the information available to him in order to make managerial decisions.
In addition to a new manager, the Reds will have new hitting and pitching coaches this season as well, both of whom come highly acclaimed. New pitching coach Derek Johnson is credited for turning the Brewers’ ragtag rotation into one that nearly got them to the World Series. And Milwaukee did not give him up without a fight. The same is true of hitting coach Turner Ward, whom the Reds lured away from the Dodgers. In Cincinnati, Ward will get to work with exciting hitters such as Joey Votto, Nick Senzel, and a certain friend of his.
At the beginning of the offseason, GM Dick Williams declared that the Reds would be active this winter. And that they were. From Keuchel to Kluber, the Reds publicly declared their interest in every starting pitcher who was even remotely available. In the end, they made three big moves to acquire players, all through trades. The first such move came in early December when they acquired Tanner Roark from the Nationals, who instantly became the team’s second-best starter. All they had to give up was reliever Tanner Rainey, who somehow was worth -1.0 bWAR in just 7 innings.
The biggest and most surprising trade came just weeks later when the Reds traded Homer Bailey and two low-level prospects to the Dodgers for Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Matt Kemp, and Kyle Farmer. The Dodgers immediately cut Bailey, who is on the books for two more years. Meanwhile, Puig, Wood, and Kemp are all free agents after this season. While the Toms Verducci of the world questioned the Reds’ motives in making this deal, I love it for several reasons.
First and foremost, the Reds found a taker for the albatross that is Homer Bailey. Not to beat a dead horse, but Bailey has been really, really, really bad for four years now, and the fact that the Reds won’t have to pay him $28 million over the next two seasons is huge. With cash considerations coming back the Reds’ way, the deal is fairly even financially, with Cincinnati taking on just a bit more salary. But in essence, the Reds traded millions of dollars that wouldn’t have helped the team, in exchange for a similar amount of money that will. Alex Wood may be the team’s best starter, and our new friend Puig will slot into the middle of the lineup as the Reds’ starting right fielder. Kemp is probably the team’s fourth or fifth best outfielder, but his bat can still be valuable off the bench. The team is clearly better in 2019 with these players on it.
With Wood, Puig, Kemp, and Roark all free agents after the 2019 season, the Reds are put in an interesting position. The team should be just entering its competitive window, and with a sudden influx of money coming off the books, they could make a big splash next offseason. One name stands out: Chris Sale. Now, do I really think the Reds will throw a bunch of money at Sale? Maybe, but it sure feels a whole lot more likely than it did six months ago.
The third and final major deal the Reds made was acquiring and extending starting pitcher Sonny Gray from the Yankees. They gave up second base prospect Shed Long, who somehow ended up on the Mariners after Jerry Dipoto swooped in at the 11th hour. Long is a promising young player, but his path to the majors was blocked by Senzel and recent first-rounder Jonathan India.
Other moves the Reds made include the additions of Derek Dietrich, Zach Duke, and Jose Iglesias, and the subtraction of Billy Hamilton, who had a career OBP of .298 with the Reds. The team also gave minor league deals to semi-familiar names Buddy Boshers, Odrisamer Despaigne, and Ian Krol, but it would require one or multiple horrible tragedies for any these guys to get regular innings in the Reds bullpen. In summary, the Reds filled their biggest need by acquiring three capable starting pitchers without giving up any of their top 6 prospects, while also cutting ties with their two largest negative contributors. Sounds like quite the successful offseason to me.
SEASON PREVIEW
To understand the 2019 Reds, it’s important to first talk about the Reds from 2015-2018. Like many other teams, the Reds entered a rebuild, bottoming out for a few years in hopes of winning down the line. And they really bottomed out. During this time frame, their 267-381 record was worst in the majors, and their 19.3 WAR as a pitching staff was barely half as much as the 29th place Marlins (although the hitting was league average and trending upward.) After trading away their entire rotation save for the injured Bailey, the Reds set a record by using rookie pitchers to start their final 64 games in 2015, a season in which they went 64-98. (That list of rookies does not include William “Rookie” Davis, who posted an 8.63 ERA with the 2017 Reds.) From 2015-2018, the Reds used 85 different pitchers. From Axelrod to Weiss, Quackenbush to Shackelford, nearly all of them were terrible. Only eleven members of this group, which I have dubbed the “egregious eighty-five,” were worth 1.0 WAR or more. And that includes Cueto, Leake, and Chapman, who were all gone after 2015. 36 of the 85 had ERAs above 6.00, and 30 walked at least 5 batters per 9 innings.
It was the Reds’ worst 4-year stretch since the 1930s. And to an outside observer, it would appear that things are getting worse. After all, the Reds won one fewer game in 2018 than the year prior. However, the team’s poor record is largely due to their 3-18 start and historically unlucky 10-29 record in one-run games. It was the worst record in such games since the St. Louis Browns in 1937. As a matter of fact, I would say that the Reds took a major step forward in 2018. For the first time since 2015, their pitching staff was outside the bottom three in fWAR, and the bullpen was downright adequate. They saw young players thrive at the major league level, with many more yet to arrive. The Reds are ready to turn the corner.
What type of Reds preview would this be if it didn’t begin with Joey Votto? Votto wasn’t quite himself at the plate in 2018. For the first time in his career, he played a full season and did not lead Reds hitters in WAR. Though his .417 OBP led the league, it was his lowest in 7 years. And he hit just 12 home runs. However, his power numbers should bounce back this season. His HR/FB rate was just 9.5%, roughly half his career average. His average exit velocity actually rose from 87.5 MPH to 88.1 MPH. His plate discipline remained Votto-esque as he was one of just four hitters who walked more than he struck out. The 35-year-old Votto may no longer be the best hitter on the Reds, but I have no worries about him going forward.
If Votto isn’t the Reds’ best hitter, that title almost certainly belongs to third baseman Eugenio Suarez. After a breakout 2017, Suarez was rewarded with a 6-year extension. He was even better in 2018. His 135 wRC+ was behind only Anthony Rendon among NL third basemen, and his 34 homers and .366 OBP were behind only Rendon and Arenado. And his 91.2 MPH average exit velocity was 29th in all of baseball, just ahead of Mike Trout. Just 27 years old, Suarez should be the team’s cornerstone for years to come.
At shortstop for the Reds is Jose Peraza, whom I was ready to declare the worst player in the league early last season. But suddenly, something changed. From June to the end of the season, Peraza slashed .305/.344/.465 with a 114 wRC+. Though his walk rate is still lower than I’d like it, Peraza has shown that he can be capable of being a solid major league contributor for nearly a full season. He pairs his newfound hitting ability with great speed (23 SB) and adequate but improving defense (-2 DRS.) Peraza’s 2.7 fWAR from 2018 ranks him ahead of notable names such as Miguel Andujar, AJ Pollock, and Jose Martinez. And Peraza is younger than all three players, even the rookie Andujar. If Peraza can be a 3-win player at the bottom of the lineup, this team will be hard to beat.
To Peraza’s left is perhaps the league’s most surprising superstar. Scooter Gennett came over to the Reds as a waiver claim just shy of Opening Day 2017. After a magical season in which he became the first Reds player ever to hit 4 home runs in a game, many thought Scooter was a fluke. He silenced the doubters by improving even more in 2018, hitting .310 with a 4.5 fWAR that slotted him just outside the top 10 in the National League. Now, does his .350 BABIP from the past two seasons mean he is an aberration? Perhaps, but Gennett saw his hard contact rate increase from 28.9% in his final season with Milwaukee to 34.4% and 38.8% in his first two with Cincinnati. His future with the Reds is up in the air, as the team has a glut of infield prospects to sort through, and Gennett is a free agent following the 2019 season. Perhaps trading him at the deadline would be the best move, but Scooter keeps on rolling like some sort of man-powered vehicle. Who knows when his meteoric rise will stop?
Just a couple of months ago, it seemed the Reds’ catcher in 2019 would be JT Realmuto. Cincinnati was briefly the frontrunner in the race for the Marlins’ star backstop, who ended up going to Philadelphia. In the end, the front office decided to roll with fan favorite Tucker Barnhart. Barnhart’s .328 OBP and 89 wRC+ don’t inspire a lot of confidence, but they weren’t that far from league average at the position. The 2017 Gold Glover is mainly known for his defense, but that wasn’t quite up to his standard last year. Backing Barnhart up will be Curt Casali, who had an .805 OPS last year.
In left field, the Reds have perhaps the closest thing to Joey Votto since Votto himself. Rookie Jesse Winker reached base at a .405 clip, including a .517 OBP in July. His 1.07 BB/K was 5th among players with at least 300 plate appearances, tied with Votto. The reason I use such a low threshold, unfortunately, is that Winker injured his shoulder in July, causing him to miss the remainder of the season. But assuming he’s healthy, Winker is the archetypical leadoff hitter in the age of sabermetrics, despite his lack of speed (his 26.0 ft/s sprint speed puts him squarely in Mike Zunino territory.) Winker does have a major shortcoming, however: his defense. And without Billy Hamilton next to him, it may be exposed even more in 2019.
The Reds enter the post-Billy era without an experienced center fielder. But there is a clear favorite to win the job. Top prospect Nick Senzel, a college third baseman and MLB second baseman, will likely start the majority of games in center for the Reds this year. Though Senzel is inexperienced in the outfield, he is a tremendous athlete, and coach Bell is confident that the 23-year-old can play there, at least for the time being. If Shin-Soo Choo was able to play 150 games in center field for the Reds, I don’t expect Senzel to have too many issues. When healthy, Senzel has hit at every level of the minors. With his vertigo issues seemingly behind him, Senzel will make a splash in 2019.
Starting in right field for the Reds is a familiar name to all baseball fans. Yasiel Puig instantly warmed himself up to Reds fans by declaring his love for the city, the team, and life in general. Last season, he had a 123 wRC+ and the highest hard hit percentage of his career. If he can play a full season, hitting 30 home runs isn’t out of the question at a park like Great American.
If the Reds could use a designated hitter, it would be Matt Kemp. Kemp bounced back in 2018 with a 122 wRC+ and an All-Star appearance, but his OPS dipped from .874 in the first half to .719 in the second half. His defense has also been notoriously awful for the entirety of his career. The team’s other utility outfielder is Scott Schebler, who has played all three outfield positions to some degree of success. Schebler was decent at the plate as the starting right fielder last year, but he will struggle to get plate appearances in a stacked lineup this year. Expect him to come in often as a marginally better defensive replacement for either Winker or Puig. Luckily, if there’s one ballpark where outfield defense doesn’t matter, it’s Great American Bandbox.
The Reds signed Derek Dietrich and Jose Iglesias to minor league deals to fill out the bench. Both players were extremely productive in 2018, and in entirely different ways. Dietrich played five positions for the Marlins last year and had a 109 wRC+, becoming the 10th Reds hitter who was at least league average at the plate in 2018 in 100 or more plate appearances. His .336 BABIP suggests he’s due to regress, and his defense was in Matt Kemp territory, but he still has an uncanny skill for being hit by pitches. Iglesias, on the other hand, is an all-glove, no-bat shortstop. He was worth 2.5 fWAR last season despite his .699 OPS, thanks to his 8.2 UZR. Neither player is particularly worthy of extended playing time this year, but they’re pretty solid as far as bench bats go. Other players competing for bench roles will be Alex Blandino and Phil “Phlervin” Ervin, neither of whom impressed in their 2018 rookie campaigns.
And now, for the pitching staff. The Reds don’t have a clear #1 starter at the moment. Rather, it seems they’ve assembled a group of 5 #3s. While that doesn’t sound flashy, it’s a whole lot better than anything the team has thrown out there in quite some time. The favorite to start on Opening Day is probably Sonny Gray. Gray came up in 2013 and quickly established himself as the ace of the Oakland A’s. After going to New York, however, he struggled, posting a 4.90 ERA and 3.94 BB/9 in 2018. Gray claims that overuse of his slider was the issue, but it was actually his most effective pitch last season. In Cincinnati, he will be reunited with his college pitching coach, Derek Johnson. Gray should bounce back to some extent in 2019, but Cincinnati is a hard place to do that for a pitcher.
The Reds pitcher with arguably the highest ceiling is Luis Castillo. He burst onto the scene in 2017 with a 3.12 ERA and 9.87 K/9 in 15 starts. 2018 was a little rougher, but he still posted a 3.69 xFIP and dramatically lowered his walk rate. After a difficult start to the season, Castillo was terrific down the stretch, allowing just 4 earned runs in the month of September. He has looked electric at times, but his inconsistency is worrying.
Both Alex Wood and Tanner Roark come to the Reds with one year remaining on their contracts. Wood has at times looked like the best pitcher on the Dodgers, his defining moment coming with his win in Game 4 of the 2017 World Series. However, he simply didn’t have a spot in the stacked Los Angeles rotation anymore, despite his strong 2018 season. Wood excels at limiting walks, but a back injury he suffered early this spring could keep him out for a little while. The 32-year-old Roark will probably slide in toward the back of the rotation. He heavily relies on his sinker, which he throws 40% of the time, to limit hard contract. His 106 ERA- and 105 FIP- make him a league average pitcher, which the Reds desperately need.
Sliding in at the back of the rotation is the oft-injured Anthony DeSclafani. After looking like a future ace in 2016, Disco missed the entirety of 2017 with UCL damage and struggled through 21 starts in 2018. Though his strikeout and walk rates looked good, he surrendered 24 home runs in 115 innings, the sixth highest HR/9 in the league. Assuming a DeSclafani injury at some point, the next man up is the #8 pitcher on that list, Tyler Mahle. The 24-year-old Mahle gained notoriety for throwing two no-hitters in the minor leagues, including a perfect game for AA Pensacola in 2017. In his young career, however, he has walked 4.36 batters per 9 innings, despite his low walk rates at all levels of the minors. Mahle has the potential to be a solid starting pitcher, but he needs to get his control figured out unless he wants to become the next Brandon Finnegan.
Anchoring the Reds bullpen once again is Raisel Iglesias. In 2018, he set a career high with 30 saves and a career low with a 2.38 ERA, but his 4.23 FIP should be a cause for some concern. His tremendously low BABIP and tremendously high HR/FB rate led to a strange season in which he allowed nearly three times as many homers as the year prior but allowed fewer runs overall. Iglesias, whose fastball sits around 96 mph, isn’t one of the top closers in the league, but he isn’t far off.
The Reds were fairly dormant in the 2017-18 offseason. But they did make two moves that worked very well for them, signing relievers Jared Hughes and David Hernandez. Both pitchers spun ERAs under 2.60 in 2018, as the Reds’ bullpen jumped from 27th to 15th in ERA. Jared Hughes, who has a penchant for sprinting to the mound in his appearances, posted a career-best 1.94 ERA with the Reds last year. Though he doesn’t strike many hitters out, Hughes outperforms his FIP better than anyone. Literally. His -1.23 difference between his ERA and FIP is the largest of all time. He has done this with his high ground ball percentage and high-movement fastball, which had an average 7.2 inches of horizontal break in 2018. Hernandez, on the other hand, succeeds with more traditional peripherals. His ability to limit walks is something the Delabar-era Reds could have used. Both Hughes and Hernandez will be key pieces in the back end of the Reds’ bullpen.
Michael Lorenzen may be best known for his bat, but he is a solid reliever as well. His 3.11 ERA in 2018 was among the best on the team. However, his 6.00 K/9 and 3.78 BB/9 do not make me confident that he will be able to replicate his run prevention from last year. Steamer agrees, projecting him for a 4.45 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 2019. Lorenzen is a fun story, but if he wants to remain a successful bullpen piece, he needs to control his pitches better.
Amir Garrett and Sal Romano are both slated to eat up innings in the Reds bullpen as well. Both pitchers came up in 2017 as starters, but they proved much more effective as relievers. Garrett in particular was tremendous last year, specifically in the first half of the season. Though he struggled down the stretch, he still struck out over 10 batters per 9 last year. Romano was a starter for most of last season, but after switching to the bullpen, his ERA dropped from 5.48 to 3.77, and his hard contact rate dipped from 36.9% to 22.2%. It seems the Reds realized that Big Sally is best in small doses.
Though they were active on the trading block, the Reds only signed one free agent to a major league contract. That was reliever Zach Duke. Duke pitched well in a short stint for the Reds in 2014, and as one of just two left-handed relievers likely to make the team, he should get plenty of innings this year. At 35, he is the oldest player at camp. In 37.1 innings with the Twins last year, Duke didn’t allow a single home run. As the team’s elder statesman, Duke will probably be a specialist against left-handed hitters; he allowed just a .602 OPS last year against lefties.
The only other lefty in the Reds’ pen is Cody Reed, a former top prospect. He was the main piece in the Johnny Cueto deal that saw the Reds acquire three high-upside pitchers: Reed, John Lamb, and Brandon Finnegan. At various points over the past four years, all three have looked like they could be staples in the rotation (ok maybe not Lamb), and all three have looked like busts. Much like Finnegan, Reed’s main issue was his control. In 2017, he walked 19 batters in 17.1 innings, good for a 6.67 FIP. But last year, Reed bounced back. He posted a 3.98 ERA with a less-bad 3.14 BB/9. His 3.51 xFIP was actually 2nd best on the team, behind only Hughes. Much like Sal Romano and Amir Garrett, Reed seems to have found a place in the Reds bullpen.
So where does this leave us? The Reds come into 2019 with a much improved pitching staff and a still-great lineup. After a lengthy rebuild, the front office finally feels comfortable adding to the team again. With a talented major league roster and plenty of reinforcements on the way, it feels like the 2020s will be a great decade for Reds fans. If the 2020 Reds are the Talking Heads’ 1980 album ‘Remain in Light’, the 2019 Reds are ‘Fear of Music’: a bold step in an exciting new direction that will soon be followed by even better things. The NL Central is going to be tough this year, but the Reds have what it takes to make it interesting, at least for a little while.
Predicted Record: 82-80
Player to Watch: 3B Eugenio Suarez
Remember when I said that 2018 was the first full season of Joey Votto’s career in which he didn’t lead Reds hitters in bWAR? That’s because he was usurped by Suarez. After dying his hair blonde, Suarez emerged as one of the best hitters in the game, slugging .526 and making hard contact on nearly 50% of the balls he hit. It’s never a bad time to point out that the Reds acquired Suarez from the Tigers in the 2014-15 offseason for Alfredo Simon, who posted a 5.05 ERA in his season in Detroit. With 6 more years in Cincinnati, Suarez is shaping up to become a club legend.
Player to Watch: IF/OF Nick Senzel
After going #2 overall in the 2016 draft, Senzel has done nothing but rake in the Reds farm system. He comes into the 2019 season as MLB’s number 6 prospect after slashing .310/.378/.509 with AAA Louisville. He also comes in as the frontrunner to play center field for the Reds this year, a position he has never played professionally. It seems a little too easy of a solution to just stick their best remaining hitter at the team’s biggest position of need, but the coaching staff believes he is athletic enough to play there. And if everything goes according to plan, Senzel will only be in the outfield for one season. With Scooter Gennett becoming a free agent after this year, Senzel should slot in at second base in 2020. The Reds’ center fielder of the future is BP’s #11 prospect Taylor Trammell, who should be in the majors by the end of 2020. 50% of all Trammells in major league history are in the Hall of Fame, so take that for that it’s worth.
Player to Watch: RP/OF Michael Lorenzen
Mikey Biceps is the best two-way player in baseball. This past season, his 3.11 ERA and 169 OPS+ were better than Shohei Ohtani. It was a disgrace that German Marquez beat him out for the Silver Slugger. But now, Coach Bell wants to do whatever it takes to get Lorenzen into the lineup. A center fielder in college, Lorenzen played the position for two innings on Monday. In that same game, he pitched a scoreless inning and batted against Mike Clevinger. Lorenzen very well may be the best defensive outfielder on this team, and he has the chance to be a true two-way player in 2019.


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