NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST 2019 SEASON PREVIEW

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2018 Record: 80-82 (3rd NL East)

2018 Payroll: $104,297,471 (23rd)

2019 Projected Lineup:

1. LF Andrew McCutchen, .263 AVG/.362 OBP/.474 SLG, 2.8 WAR
2. SS Jean Segura, .284 AVG/.330 OBP/.415 SLG, 2.5 WAR
3. Bryce Harper, .260 AVG/.395 OBP/.530 SLG, 4.6 WAR
4. C J.T. Realmuto, .269 AVG/.325 OBP/.457 SLG, 3.9 WAR
5. 1B Rhys Hoskins, .249 AVG/.351 OBP/.500 SLG, 3.5 WAR
6. 3B Maikel Franco, .263 AVG/.318 OBP/.473 SLG, 2.1 WAR
7. CF Odubel Herrera, .267 AVG/.327 OBP/.426 SLG, 2.0 WAR
8. 2B Cesar Hernadez, .256 AVG/.350 OBP/.365 SLG, 2.0 WAR

2019 Projected Rotation:

1. Aaron Nola, 194 IP/3.56 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 4.1 WAR
2. Jake Arrieta, 181 IP/4.24 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 2.3 WAR
3. Vince Velasquez, 137 IP/4.40 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 1.4 WAR
4. Nick Pivetta, 160 IP/4.00 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 2.0 WAR
5. Zach Eflin, 145 IP/4.61 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.2 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

The Phillies made the moves they needed to do to become contenders. We all heard the recent news about the most expensive free agent deal in baseball history. We will be seeing Bryce Harper in a number 3 jersey for a long time. After the Harper signing, according to Vegas, the Phillies have the 5th best odds to win the World Series, tied with Cubs at 10/1 odds. From trades to free agent signings, the Phillies put in major work this offseason to revamp their lineup into a World Series contending team.

SEASON PREVIEW

The Phillies are coming off a very average season, finishing two games under .500. They did make some significant moves over this offseason to hopefully set them up for an NL East title and maybe even World Series contention. On December 3rd, they finished a blockbuster deal with the Seattle Mariners. The Phillies gave away first baseman Carlos Santana and their young shortstop, J.P. Crawford. In return, they managed to obtain two-time All-Star shortstop Jean Segura, and two relievers, right-hander Juan Nicasio and left-hander James Pazos. The Phillies said goodbye to an overpaid and aging Santana and welcomed a 28-year-old Segura who almost won the All-Star Game MVP and finished the 2018 season hitting .304 with a solid 4.3 WAR. In 2016, the Mariners called him the team’s future, but here he is a Philly. This trade was very controversial about whether the Mariners got enough in return (Editor’s note: THEY DIDN’T), but they said that Segura’s value wasn’t as high as most people think he is worth. Nevertheless, Segura will be an excellent addition to a rebuilding Phillies team full of young talent. As for the pitchers, Nicasio is coming off a poor season with a 1-6 record, a 6.00 ERA, and -1.1 bWAR. One thing to point out is how low his FIP is compared to his ERA. His FIP totaled 2.99, a shocking 3.01 lower than his ERA, and actually led him to post a positive fWAR. This can show that maybe he got unlucky with a lot of the hits and runs he gave up. Pazos had a much better season, posting a 0.8 bWAR with a 2.88 ERA. To just put the FIP and ERA difference into perspective, Pazos posted a 3.60 FIP which is .072 higher than his ERA. This actually shows that Pazos was more on the lucky end with regards to hits dropping and runs scoring off them.

Another trade involved the acquisition of LHP Jose Alvarez for RHP Luis Garcia. Alvarez is coming off an impressive 1.4 WAR season, posting a 2.71 ERA in 63 IP. It is evident that the Phillies feel a need to strengthen their bullpen that overall struggled to put up quality numbers last season. Also, David Robertson was a later free agent signing to continue adding to the bullpen. Robertson was the setup man for the Yankees, getting 145 holds in 8.5 seasons, one of which where he replaced Mariano Rivera as closer and saved 39 games. He also tallied 84 saves in 2.5 seasons with the White Sox. Robertson will be a valuable asset late in games for the Phillies coming out of the bullpen.

Another big trade brought in the top catcher in the league, J.T. Realmuto, from the Miami Marlins. It cost them their starting catcher, Jorge Alfaro, RHP Sixto Sanchez, LHP Will Stewart, and future considerations. Realmuto finished 2018 as an All-Star and the NL Silver Slugger at catcher, posting a 4.3 WAR and an OPS+ of 131. There’s not too much to be said here. Realmuto will produce some monster numbers both offensively and defensively for the Phillies in 2019.

A great free agent signing was 5-time All-Star Andrew McCutchen (It seems to me that the Phillies like their All-Stars). A 3-year $50 million deal is great for the Phillies. The addition of McCutchen in the outfield greatly strengthens their already growing team. While McCutchen is a 5-time All-Star, those days are mostly passed him. Over the past couple of years, he has become a .250 average hitter with decent power, hitting 20 home runs with the Giants and Yankees last year. Regardless, he is a solid addition to the Phillies stellar outfield and will be a great hitter at the top of the lineup with his .368 OBP last season.

I’ll finally get to the largest contract in MLB history. Many people have different viewpoints over whether the Phillies overpaid Harper or not. In my personal opinion, this is worth it at the current moment. We will ultimately judge this deal by how many World Series the Phillies win with Harper, but I think this sets them up very well for the future. Like I said earlier, the Phillies are now 5th in odds to win the World Series, up from 11th before the offseason. 13 years is a long time, but Harper is 26. He probably won’t play through his age-40 season, but nonetheless, you have one of the best players in the league secured on your team for the remainder of his career. If $330 million for 13 years was what it was going to take to get Harper to choose Philly over San Fransisco, then I believe that it’s worth it. I think we saw the bottom level of Harper last season. He hit .249, yet he still had 34 HR and 100 RBI. Most impressively, he had a .393 OBP despite his mediocre batting average. He led the league with 130. His “bad” season still got him an All-Star Game appearance and a Home Run Derby trophy. Harper’s talent isn’t going anywhere for around the next 8 years. With contracts continuing to rise in value due to inflation, this deal won’t seem as extreme as it does now after those 8 years are up. By then, Harper will have lived up to his value when he’s playing in his prime. At the end of the day, this is a great player to build around and puts them in a great place moving forward.

Lastly, I feel the need as a Tigers fan to point out the best signing of the year done by the Phillies: Andrew Romine. That’s right, the player who played all nine positions in one game. Best utility player to ever play the game of baseball. Bring him up Phillies. Bring him up.

Record Prediction: 91-72

The Phillies won 80 games last season. They now have added not one, not two, not three, but four All-Stars to their lineup, one of them being Bryce Harper. It will be a good contest between them and the Braves this year for first place in the NL East, but I think the Phillies will come out on top. They are actual World Series contenders this year, and I think 91 wins is well within reach for them this year.

Player to Watch: Jean Segura

It would be easy to pick Bryce Harper as the star of the team, but I think Segura will be a stand out star this year. Segura is an excellent contact hitter with only a 10.9 K% which is the 4th lowest among qualified hitters. I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues his streak of hitting above .300 and scores over 100 runs this season with Harper, Realmuto, and Hoskins batting behind him. While he doesn’t hit for power, if he manages to get on base in any way, his teammates behind him will no doubt be able to drive him in. His success at the plate will reflect the success of the Phillies as a whole.

Player to Watch: Adonis Medina

Medina started one game for the Phillies so far in Spring Training and threw for 2.2 innings. He did give up 2 runs, but this doesn’t tell his whole story. The Phillies currently have a 32-year-old Jake Arrieta as their number 2 in the rotation. That probably won’t cut it for long. They need some young talent at pitching to give them the boost they need to win a championship. Medina could be that player. He averages less than one home run against him per 9 and holds a career ERA at 3.21. Over the past 2 seasons, he has averaged 10 K/9. He has been in the organization for 5 years and is only 22 years old. He has plenty of time to break out and become a strong part of the rotation for the near future.

Player to Watch:  Alec Bohm

Alec is currently the #2 prospect in the Phillies farm system and 66th in the MLB. The Phillies drafted him 3rd overall as a 3rd baseman in the 2018 MLB draft. Alec spent the 2018 season in rookie ball but was quickly called up to Williamsport. After getting hit by a pitch in the knee, he was sent to the DL because of a nerve issue. He spent most of the season on a rehab assignment in rookie ball. He hit .391 with the GCL Phillies West, .222 with the GCL Phillies East, and .224 at Williamsport (.252 cumulative). Like Medina, he is also 22 years old with great potential. As the number 3 pick, there is some pressure on him to live up to the standards of a top pick, but if he can stay healthy, his hitting will only get better. With more experience, his fielding will get better as well, and he could play a major role for the team, either as a replacement for Maikel Franco or as a potential trade target.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2018 Record: 82-80 (2nd in NL East)

2018 Payroll: $181,382,609 (5th)

Projected 2019 Lineup:

1. OF Adam Eaton, .283 AVG/.366 OBP/.412 SLG, 2.2 WAR
2. SS Trea Turner, .287 AVG/.350 OBP/.447 SLG, 4.5 WAR
3. 3B Anthony Rendon, .287 AVG/.373 OBP/.487 SLG, 5.0 WAR
4. OF Juan Soto, .292 AVG/.393 OBP/.517 SLG, 4.3 WAR
5. 2B Brian Dozier, .242 AVG/.327 OBP/.433 SLG, 2.1 WAR
6. 1B Ryan Zimmerman, .263 AVG/.328 OBP/.476 SLG, 1.1 WAR
7. OF Victor Robles, .274 AVG/.335 OBP/.417 SLG, 2.1 WAR
8. C Yan Gomes, .241 AVG/.295 OBP/.408 SLG, 1.0 WAR

Projected 2019 Rotation:

1. Max Scherzer, 208.0 IP/3.14 ERA/1.04 WHIP, 5.7 WAR
2. Stephen Strasburg, 177.0 IP/3.67 ERA/1.19 WHIP, 3.1 WAR
3. Patrick Corbin, 182.0 IP/3.44 ERA/1.21 WHIP, 3.5 WAR
4. Anibal Sanchez, 144.0 IP/4.30 ERA/1.31 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
5. Joe Ross, 55.0 IP/4.59 ERA/1.35 WHIP, 0.4 WAR
6. Jeremy Hellickson, 106.0 IP/4.84 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 0.6 WAR

It is year 1 A.B.—after Bryce—in our nation’s capital, and the NL East is shaping up to be a slugfest of the highest order. How will the Nationals shape up? Let’s find out:

OFFSEASON RECAP

At the end of another ultimately disappointing season in Washington that saw a very talented Nats roster finish only a win above .500, the first order of business was putting an offer on the table for Bryce Harper. The 10-year, 300 million dollar contract offer felt at the time more like a market setting bid than a serious attempt at retaining their homegrown superstar. However, when Harper ultimately settled for a lower annual average value on his 13-year, 330 million dollar deal with the Phillies, it appeared the Nationals had already removed themselves from negotiations and that the initial offer consisted of significant deferred money—something that has become commonplace with long term contracts under the Lerner ownership.

Fortunately, Harper moving down I-95 to Philly did not make this a disappointing winter for GM Mike Rizzo and the Nats. Yes, losing a player of Harper’s ability hurts, but when he was one of the main consistencies on a series of teams that either fell off entirely the second the playoffs began or worse yet underperformed their way to missing the playoffs altogether, somewhat of a fresh start might not hurt. Moreover, with an abundance of outfield options remaining and other key holes being amongst the real reasons for a disappointing 2018 (looking at my two Gallardo Award winners Pedro Severino and Wilmer Difo), Washington focused on plugging those holes effectively rather than putting all its eggs in the Bryce basket.

Instead, Rizzo looked at last year’s glaring weaknesses—second base (Washington placed dead last in MLB in WAR from its second basemen), catcher (here Washington only placed dead last in the NL), and rotation depth—and addressed them aptly.

While the predominant free agency story league-wide has been how long teams are holding off from signing players, Washington wasted no time acquiring both Kurt Suzuki via free agency and Yan Gomes via trade within two months of Pedro Severino’s last disappointing strikeout.

One month later, in January, the Nats took a chance on former Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, who finished top-15 in back to back AL MVP votings in 2016 and 2017, before a down year in 2018 that still featured 21 home runs and a World Series run after a midseason trade to the Dodgers. At 1-year, 9 million dollar, Dozier should represent a low-risk gamble with 30 home run upside at the position at which the team was weakest last year.

Finally, in February, the big move was made. The Nationals love a big contract free agent pitcher, and the 6-year, 140 million dollar contract given to former Diamondback Patrick Corbin, makes Corbin just that. His track record might not be as long as the money suggests, but pairing a 29-year old coming off of a phenomenal 2018 in which he posted a 2.47 FIP, 11.07 K/9, 6.3 WAR and a top-5 finish in NL Cy Young voting with Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg has scintillating potential.

Bringing last year’s surprisingly solid Matt Adams, and relievers Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough put the finishing touches on an excellent all-around offseason.

SEASON PREVIEW

As mentioned initially, the NL East—Marlins aside—should be a clash of the very good teams aiming for wins in the high 80’s, low 90’s while hoping to beat up on each other and once again the Marlins. The good news is that Nationals look like they should be able to hang, and offer a little more experience than their counterparts in Atlanta and Philadelphia, and a little less Mets-iness than their rivals in New York.

It all starts with the front of the rotation, where Max Scherzer will look to continue one of the most dominant multi-year stretches in recent history, Patrick Corbin will try to keep his 2018 form going, and Stephen Strasburg will aim to hopefully, please, knock on wood, stay healthy.

Now Scherzer should not be a wild card in that equation, as his past season was even better than his two previous Cy Young winning seasons, as he posted career bests in K/9, FIP, and WAR. Strasburg meanwhile faces the same questions as always, alternating between stretches as dominant as his 2.52, third place NL Cy Young 2017 and seasons like his 130.0 IP, 3.74 ERA 2018 seemingly every other year. But if Strasburg and Corbin both deliver alongside Scherzer’s inevitability, D.C. might just have the best three-headed monster in baseball.

Less stability and upside arise on days 4 and 5 of the rotation, as Joe Ross, Anibal Sanchez and Jeremy Hellickson will battle for the final two spots. Don’t count out disappointing former first-rounder Erick Fedde throwing his hat in the ring, but a career 6.44 ERA hardly evokes much confidence. Look out for Hellickson though, who turned some unexpected heads in Washington last year to the tune of 3.45 ERA in 19 starts, even if the 4.22 FIP points to some regression.

A serious NL East challenge might come down to how the relievers following some of those excellent starters fare. It feels like each of the past 5 years the Nats have been clamoring for bullpen help at the trade deadline, but this year they might have made some of those moves ahead of time. Sean Doolittle has been flat out elite since coming to D.C. and should lock down ninth innings with his 12.00 K/9 and 1.60 ERA from 2018. Granted, he might be pushed to the eighth should the Nationals make a surprise run at the still unsigned Craig Kimbrel, but with the Braves and Phillies also in the mix that seems like more of a pipe dream than a serious possibility. Yet if Rosenthal and Barraclough reward the Nationals for the faith they put in them this winter, the bullpen should be much less iffy than in years past either way.

On the other side of the diamond the Nationals boast an impressive offense. Led by the perennially underrated but consistently excellent Anthony Rendon at the hot corner, the lineup features a bevy of above-average or better contributors. And while Tony Two Bags has become a near lock for 40ish doubles, 20+ home runs and 5.0 fWAR, he might not even be the best hitter on the team.

While the price point might be atop the list of reasons for not retaining Bryce Harper, having the greatest teenage hitter of all time ready to take his spot in the lineup was not far behind. In 2018, rookie Juan Soto did his best Bryce Harper impression and then some—obviously not peak power, world beating 197 wRC+ MVP Bryce Harper, but the Bryce Harper with excellent plate discipline, power, and a .280ish batting average with upside. His .923 OPS barely bested Mel Otts long standing .921 mark for the best ever by a teen. Not only is Soto’s walk rate of 16.0 % above Harper’s 14.8% career total, but it also does not fall far below his 20.0% strikeout rate, painting the picture of a hitter that is poised beyond his years. He might not have won Rookie of the Year or offer the same flash as his cross-division counterpart Ronald Acuña Jr., but watching their respective careers unfold should be one of the most exciting subplots in all of baseball.

Joining Childish Bambino in the DC outfield will be Adam Eaton and long-time top 5 prospect Victor Robles. While the 30-year old Eaton might not ever reach the heights of his final 5.8 fWAR season in Chicago, injuries aside, he has been a great hitter since joining the Nationals, putting up a 125 and 123 wRC+ respectively in two shortened seasons in DC. The defense is not quite there anymore, but the man they call Mighty Mouse is about as pesky of a leadoff hitter as you’ll find and should be an excellent asset at the top of Davey Martinez’s lineup if he can reach his .301 batting average from 2018. Robles meanwhile is expected to break camp as the team’s everyday center fielder after impressing enough in his first two brief MLB stints to make the Nats’ 2017 playoff roster. In 2018, the 21-year old Dominican outfielder produced a 131 wRC+ in a small 66 PA sample, but slugged his way to 3 home runs, 3 doubles, and a .525 slugging percentage. All things considered, the outfield should be a team strength Harper or no Harper.

Meanwhile, rounding out the infield alongside Rendon are Trea Turner at short, Brian Dozier at second, and National for life Ryan Zimmerman.

Let’s start with Zimmerman, who following a couple of up and down seasons might be the biggest question mark of the bunch heading into his age 34 season. While he slugged 36 home runs and 108 RBIs with a .303 batting average back in 2017, his 2015, 2016 and 2018 raise some doubts both health and production-wise. Granted the .218, 66 wRC+, -1.4 fWAR production from three seasons ago looks like a clear outlier, but with only 85 games played last year and a .108 drop in OPS the decision to bring back Matt Adams to back Zimm up seems like a smart hedge by Rizzo. Before he was traded back to St. Louis at the trade deadline, Adams had produced 18 home runs and a 123 wRC+ for the Nats, including some impressive hot stretches. Best case scenario, Zimmerman builds off his MLB 5th best 9.9 Barrels/Plate Appearance % from 2018 though, and Adams remains a useful backup when called upon.

Over at shortstop, Trea Turner is right up there on the list of young Nationals with the most tantalizing upside, along with Soto and Robles. If the 146 wRC+, .342 batting average hitter is still to be found somewhere inside his speedy, 6’2 body, the sky’s the limit for Turner. His 4.8 fWAR 2018 already was a vast improvement from a disappointing sophomore season in 2017, as he played in every game and nearly broke the 20 home run mark. While the .271 average is not what DC was hoping for, a significant improvement in walk rate helped him once again steal 40 bases. Let’s hope he puts it all together because if he does, he can be one of the more exciting players in baseball.

At second base, new addition Brian Dozier and the returning Howie Kendrick will have to do almost nothing to exceed Wilmer Difo’s production from 2018. While Dozier offers the 20 home run and previous MVP conversation caliber upside, Kendrick has been instrumental since his 2017 arrival in Washington, reaching base at a .331 clip last year, and is a beloved figure in the clubhouse.

Finally, catcher is a similar story. Pedro Severino could not hit to save his life, and the Matt Wieters experiment failed, with Washington catchers producing a combined -2.2 WAR per Baseball Reference. With Yan Gomes and the return of Kurt Suzuki Washington fans will be hoping that there will just have to be more output from behind the dish. Fortunately, each of them broke 2.0 fWAR in 2018 and with 28 home runs between them they should present the team with a much better catching situation.

All things considered, this Nationals team has a high floor and an even higher ceiling on paper. On paper remains the key phrase, just as it has every year since the first NL East title in 2012. And while the 6 seasons since have produced inevitable disappointment, whether a first-round playoff exit or no playoffs at all, never has DC gone two years in a row without winning the division or at least 95 wins. So after 82 wins in 2018, the feeling within the team is much more positive this year, and the Nats have the roster to bear that out. If they can go 15-4 against the Marlins—as every NL East team will be hoping to do—and hang tough against their direct competition, there is no reason 92 wins and a fifth division title is out of the picture. No matter what though, keep your eyes on the NL East.

Predicted Record: 92-70

Player to Watch: SP Max Scherzer

He might be 34, but the man they lovingly call Mad Max keeps getting better. His aforementioned 2018 featured not only career highs in various categories and an incredible 300 strikeouts but also the addition of a brand new cutter. His dominant fastball remains his best pitch as he threw it 50.3% of the time and consistently for first strikes, but the confidence he displayed in his newest pitch—throwing it 9.8% of the time—was the sign of a pitcher who remains hungry and willing to improve no matter how accomplished he is. Can he make it three Cy Youngs in four years in 2019? That remains to be seen, but tuning in to Mad Max starts every fifth day remains the most fun thing a Washington, or any fan can do.

Player to Watch: 3B Anthony Rendon

From the leader of the rotation to the leader of the lineup. Coming off two straight years as a top-two player in the National League by fWAR (6.7 in 2017, 6.3 in 2018), Rendon is another one of the reasons many Nationals fans were okay with letting Harper leave. Why pay 30 million dollars a year for flash and not always consistent production, when your quietly best hitter might hit the market only a year later and potentially present an even more promising future? Granted, Rendon is another on the long list of Scott Boras that ply or have plied their trade in DC, so an extension is far from guaranteed or even probable, but if Stephen Strasburg’s pre-Free Agency extension from 2017 is any indicator, a new contract for Rendon ahead of him hitting the open market is not off the table. As such, contract year production with a massive eventual extension could be a best case scenario for both the Nationals and Boras alike because if Rendon walks next winter as well, DC fans might not be quite as understanding.

Player to Watch: OF Victor Robles

Picking three players to watch on the Nationals is tough, and Juan Soto and Trea Turner are indeed good options, and even MLB’s number 18 prospect Carter Kieboom almost made the cut, but ultimately Victor Robles could be one of the make or break players on a hopeful division champion team. With aforementioned previous production in short stints and 70-grade scouting ratings in speed, fielding and throwing per Fangraphs, Washington might be looking at its center fielder for years to come, and 2019 could be his breakout. Only 21 games in 2018 or not, a .873 OPS from a 20-year old is nothing to scoff at, and his blazing speed should allow him to be productive on the basepaths no matter what. Power might never be his calling card, but if the .288 average was a sign of things to come, the young Robles could be a luxury hitting out of the lowered pressure eight hole this season. Come for Soto and Eaton, stay for Victor Robles, who has the potential to be the calling card for the Nationals outfield in 2019.

NEW YORK METS

2018 Record: 77-85 (4th NL East)

2018 Payroll: $150,187,987 (12th)

Projected 2019 Lineup:

1. RF Brandon Nimmo, .240/.353/.398, 2.4 WAR

2. 2B Jed Lowrie, .243/.327/.393, 2.0 WAR

3. 1B Robinson Cano, .278/.339/.457, 3.3 WAR

4. LF Michael Conforto, .244/.345/.454, 3.0 WAR

5. 3B Todd Frazier, .218/.310/.410, 0.8 WAR

6. C Wilson Ramos, .261/.312/.439, 2.3 WAR

7. SS Amed Rosario, .262/.304/.391, 2.0 WAR

8. CF Juan Lagares, .253/.300/.369, 0.7 WAR

Projected Starting Rotation

1. Jacob deGrom, 208 IP/2.93 ERA/1.06 WHIP, 5.8 WAR

2. Noah Syndergaard, 176 IP/3.51 ERA/1.17 WHIP, 3.6 WAR

3. Zack Wheeler, 171 IP/3.85 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 2.7 WAR

4. Steven Matz, 162 IP/4.04 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 1.9 WAR

5. Jason Vargas, 105 IP/4.37 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.8 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

The Mets may have done the most of any team this past offseason. The first and perhaps most important, move they made was hiring a new general manager: Brodie Van Wagenen. Mr. Van Wagenen is a former player agent straight from the sports division of the Creative Artists Agency, one of the most robust talent agencies in the world.

BVW made a splash with his first major move, acquiring eight-time All-Star Robinson Cano and young flamethrower Edwin Diaz from the Mariners in exchange for prospects Justin Dunn and Jared Kelenic and some salary relief. The improvements didn’t stop there, though; Brodie signed Wilson Ramos, Jeurys Familia, Jed Lowrie, and a handful of others to MLB contracts so that the Mets might be able to make another playoff push before their loaded rotation hits free agency. Sure, they have like twenty second basemen now, but you can never have enough infielders, right?

SEASON PREVIEW

No longer are the days of the “NL Easy.” The NL East projects to be a dogfight from top to bottom, save, of course, for the Marlins, who own a roster on which 60% of the players have fewer than two years of MLB service time. The Marlins are also the only team in the NL East projected to finish under .500 this season. You can read more about the Marlins upcoming sadfest here, if you must.

The Mets return three of their top four WAR-getters from last season in Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler. Somehow, deGrom didn’t win the Cy Young award unanimously last season despite doing all of the following things:

• Putting together the longest string of starts allowing three or fewer earned runs.
• Compiling an ERA that was 10th-lowest all-time among any qualified starter since WWII.
• Striking out 5.85 batters for every batter he walked while also striking out 32.2% of opposing hitters. There are only six pitchers ever to compile a higher K/BB ratio and K% in the same season: Pedro Martinez in 2000 (8.88, 34.8%) and 1999 (8.46, 37.5%), Justin Verlander in 2018 (7.84, 34.8%), Corey Kluber in 2017 (7.36, 34.1%), Clayton Kershaw in 2015 (7.17, 33.8%), Chris Sale in 2017 (7.16, 36.2%), and Max Scherzer in 2018 (5.88, 34.6).

He did other cool stuff too, like throw eight shutout innings with 10 strikeouts and just two hits in his final start of the year. Bottom line: he was good and should have won the Cy Young unanimously. Thank that writer in San Diego if you think Scherzer, or anybody else for that matter, should have won. You’re wrong but you’re entitled to your opinion. But to be clear, you’re wrong. Moving on.

Noah Syndergaard is also still a god. He missed parts of 2018 with a finger injury and hand, foot, and mouth disease (yeah, seriously) but was pretty excellent when he was healthy, throwing 154.1 innings of 3.03 ERA ball. Thor led the league in complete games and shutouts (with two and one respectively—welcome to 2018!) despite starting just 25 games. He’ll be firing on all cylinders for the Mets in 2019 as the #2 in what is sure to be the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball.

Zack Wheeler will join the above two studs in a fearsome top half of the rotation for the Amazins. Wheeler’s 1.68 second half ERA last season was the second-lowest among all qualified starters, one spot ahead of his teammate Jacob deGrom and one spot behind Pirates starter Trevor Williams. Trevor Williams has no business being at the top of that list, but Wheeler certainly does thanks to his 4.87 K/BB ratio and 2.53 FIP. Obviously, there is a little bit of luck involved in compiling an ERA under 2 in a half, but Wheeler’s peripherals indicate that his performance was not terribly fluke.

Steven Matz and Jason Vargas figure to round out the Mets rotation. I’d like to see them give Kyle Dowdy, a Rule Five pick from the Indians, a shot at starting regularly. Dowdy, a 12th round pick of the Tigers in 2015, sat in the low-to-mid 90s before he started working with a weighted ball and added about five miles per hour to his fastball. He can regularly touch 99 now and fanned almost one batter per inning in work across double- and triple-A in 2018. As of now, Dowdy will likely be on mop-up duty in the bullpen, but the Mets could call on him if they need a spot starter.

The newly-acquired Edwin Diaz is likely to slot into the closer role. Jeurys Familia, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Justin Wilson will join him in what will be a much-improved bullpen from last season.

The pitching staff is not the only intriguing part of this roster, though. The lineup will feature young outfielders Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo, the former of whom is looking to return to his 2017 form and the latter of whom is looking to continue his 2018 success. These two first rounders are likely to appear towards the top of the Mets’ lineup this upcoming season.

They’ll also have a slew of fresh faces in the lineup, including aforementioned new acquisitions Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, and Jed Lowrie. Despite what Rotochamp says, I find it hard to believe that the Mets would start Cano at first base; especially with stud prospect Pete Alonso waiting in the wings. I think that their infield, when everyone is fully healthy, will shake out something like this:

• 1B: Pete Alonso
• 2B: Robinson Cano
• SS: Amed Rosario
• 3B: Jed Lowrie

Jeff McNeil, who hit .329 in his rookie season last year, will slot in around the infield and should also see some work in the outfield. As of right now, the Mets project to start the season with Todd Frazier and Jed Lowrie both on the injured list, so McNeil will probably start at third until one of those two gets back to full health.

The tough news for this team is that although the roster looks as good as it has on paper in a long time, the Mets have to compete with the Bryce Harper-led Phillies, the Harper-less Nationals who signed Patrick Corbin to bolster the rotation, and the Braves with a new third baseman: Josh Donaldson. They’re going to have to stay healthy and play well from April to September in order to win what figures to be the toughest division in baseball this year.

Projected Record: 84-78

Player to Watch: Michael Conforto, OF

I already sang deGrom’s praises earlier in the article so I figured I’d give Michael Conforto some love. Most people think that Conforto, a former first-round pick out of Oregon State, had a down year and, on the surface, he did. His OPS dropped by 140 points and he hit just one more homer than in 2017 despite playing 44 more games.

The good news for Conforto is that his issues are very fixable. He actually struck out less in 2018 than 2017, walked more, and made more contact on pitches in the zone and overall. The largest obstacle he faced in 2018 was that he stopped hitting the ball in the air, and part of that can likely be traced to the shoulder injury that cut his 2017 short. With his shoulder surgery over a year in the past, Conforto should be able to find the stroke that brought him so much success in 2017.

Player to Watch: Pete Alonso, 1B

If not for the MLB’s rules about service time and free agency eligibility, Alonso may have made his big league debut in the middle of last season. He didn’t, though, and instead triple-slashed a light .285/.395/.579 with 36 homers in 132 minor league games across double- and triple-A. Alonso will be in Queens sooner rather than later, and when he does, he should immediately slot into Rookie of the Year discussions.

Player to Watch: Eric Hanhold, RP

Yes, I know you don’t know who Eric Hanhold is. Here’s a quick summary: 6’5″, high 90s fastball, high 80s slider. Sounds similar to Noah Syndergaard, right? Hanhold isn’t the next Thor, but he’s big and throws hard. Hanhold will get an opportunity for some big league relief work this season after spending most of 2018 in the minors and with his stuff, should work his way into meaningful bullpen work sooner rather than later.

ATLANTA BRAVES

2018 Record: 90-72 (1st in NL East) 

2018 Payroll: $106,675,000 (20th)

Projected 2019 Lineup:

1. LF Ronald Acuna Jr., .279/.347/.491, 3.2 WAR
2. 3B Josh Donaldson, .257/.364/.479, 4.1 WAR
3. 1B Freddie Freeman, .286/.379/.506, 4.2 WAR
4. RF Nick Markakis, .274/.350/.402, 0.9 WAR
5. 2B Ozzie Albies, .273/.324/.449, 3.4 WAR
6. CF Ender Inciarte, .274/.331/.385, 2.2 WAR
7. SS Dansby Swanson, .249/.322/.390, 1.5 WAR
8. C Tyler Flowers, .248/.335/.398, 1.3 WAR

Projected 2019 Rotation:

1. Mike Foltynewicz, 192 IP/4.02 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 2.6 WAR
2. Kevin Gausman, 170 IP/4.16 ERA/1.30 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
3. Sean Newcomb, 177 IP/4.22 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
4. Julio Teheran, 159 IP/4.85 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 0.6 WAR
5. Touki Toussaint, 83 IP/4.45 ERA/1.44 WHIP, 0.5 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

Well, that wasn’t Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. But Josh Donaldson is not a terrible participation trophy. When I previewed the Braves this time last year, I thought they would be a team to watch for a major splash this offseason. Instead, their division rivals — namely the Philadelphia Phillies and the New York Mets, but even the Washington Nationals to a certain extent — all had massive offseasons while the Braves signed two key players: Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann. The Donaldson signing is particularly impressive, as the team was able to secure an aging player projected to produce over 4 fWAR in 2019 per Steamer on a one-year contract.

This wasn’t a team that was particularly desperate for a free agent signing. Many of the best players on the Braves, including Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Sean Newcomb, and A.J. Minter, are all on rookie contracts. The team also has a top-three farm system in baseball stocked with 10 prospects with 50 FV or better according to FanGraphs. One impact bat and one reliable backup catcher may be all that this team needs with multiple prospects on the verge of breaking into the big leagues.

SEASON PREVIEW

Another year, another young squad. The Atlanta Braves are in the midst of a youth movement. Can this young team make the postseason for a second straight year?

Let’s start with the bats. With Josh Donaldson entering the fold, the Braves now boast one of the finer infields in all of baseball. Donaldson will man third base, while perennial MVP candidate Freddie Freeman will play first. In the middle of the infield are 2018 breakout star Ozzie Albies and struggling former first overall draft pick Dansby Swanson. Should Swanson break out in 2019, this would probably be the best infield in all of baseball (don’t hold your breath, though). Whether Swanson is great in 2019 or not, however, this is a very strong unit, especially with 2018 standout Johan Camargo serving as the team’s super-utility player (fun fact: Camargo posted a 3.3 fWAR in 134 games last season).

The outfield is very solid, if not exceptional. National League rookie of the year and former number one prospect Ronald Acuna Jr. will look to follow up a sensational 2018 rookie campaign, while 2018 All-Star Nick Markakis will look to avoid the heavy regression that Steamer predicts is coming his way. Ender Inciarte will join the two once again, and supply plus value with his defense, speed, and ability to hit for average.

This rotation could go in many different directions. Mike Foltynewicz enjoyed a breakout 3.7 fWAR season in 2018 but will miss Opening Day with an elbow injury. Kevin Gausman, meanwhile, enjoyed his time in a Braves jersey in 2018, posting a 2.87 ERA in ten starts, but is only projected to be a league-average starter in 2019. Sean Newcomb, who posted a solid 1.9 fWAR last season, is expected to produce similar results in 2019, while the projections have zero faith in Julio Teheran and only expect a limited amount of work from top prospect Touki Toussaint. Things are up in the air.

The bullpen, meanwhile, is similarly confusing. A.J. Minter and Dan Winkler both posted successful 2018 campaigns, sitting in Atlanta’s top five leaderboards for 2018 pitcher fWAR, but Arodys Vizcaino missed significant time due to injury. Jesse Biddle, Shane Carle, and Sam Freeman could all provide a decent amount of solid innings, as could midseason trade acquisition and longtime veteran Darren O’Day, but things could very go well with the team’s overall lack of star power late in the game (phoning Craig Kimbrel).

At the end of the day, this should be a solid squad in 2018. Nevertheless, Mike Foltynewicz was the only pitcher currently on the roster to post an fWAR above 2.0 in 2018, and it’s hard to envision this team supplying six batters with an fWAR above 2.5 next year like they did in 2018. In a loaded National League East, we’re taking the under on the Braves due to their quiet offseason and their over-reliance on breakout performances in 2018.

Record Prediction: 83-79

Players to Watch

Player to Watch: 3B Josh Donaldson

Whoa, there! After posting a down year in 2018 in which he only posted, Josh Donaldson is projected to post a 4.1 fWAR in 2019. There isn’t a ton to say about Donaldson — he is an MVP candidate when healthy until he proves otherwise — but keep an eye on his performance this season.

Player to Watch: IF/OF Johan Camargo

Remember that fun fact a couple of paragraphs ago saying that Johan Camargo posted a 3.3 fWAR in 134 games last season? That’s why he is a player to watch. Camargo was simultaneously an impact bat and an impact glove in 2018, and with Josh Donaldson holding down third base in 2019, we’re likely to see Camargo play various different positions this season.

Player to Watch: RP A.J. Minter

When Arodys Vizcaino went down with an injury for large portions of last season, A.J. Minter stepped into the closer role. While he is no Craig Kimbrel, Minter posted a 1.4 fWAR and a 26.5% strikeout rate in 2018. With a fastball sitting around 96.5 miles per hour per PITCHf/x pitch velocity and a plus slider per Pitch Info Pitch Values (worth 6.3 runs compared to the average slider in 2018); Minter is a player to watch 2019 Season Preview: Miami Marlins

MIAMI MARLINS

2018 Record: 63-98 (5th in NL East)

2018 Payroll: $91,817,860 (26^th)

Projected 2019 Lineup:

1. OF Curtis Granderson: .222 AVG/.326 OBP/.381 SLG, 0.5 WAR
2. 2B Starlin Castro: .266 AVG/.313 OBP/.401 SLG, 1.6 WAR
3. OF Brian Anderson: .260 AVG/.334 OBP/.407 SLG, 2.1 WAR
4. 1B Neil Walker: .249 AVG/.329 OBP/.405 SLG, 0.8 WAR
5. 3B Martin Prado: .261 AVG/.312 OBP/.369 SLG, 0.1 WAR
6. SS JT Riddle: .248 AVG/.293 OBP/.370 SLG, 0.8 WAR
7. C Jorge Alfaro: .237 AVG/.288 OBP/.376 SLG, 1.0 WAR
8. OF Lewis Brinson: .234 AVG/.286 OBP/.396 SLG, 0.9 WAR

Projected 2019 Rotation:

1. Jose Urena: 162.0 IP/4.43 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
2. Dan Straily: 156.0 IP/4.86 ERA/1.40 WHIP, 0.5 WAR
3. Sandy Alcantara: 65.0 IP/4.64 ERA/1.49 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
4. Trevor Richards: 124.0 IP/4.12 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
5. Wei Yin Chen: 157.0 IP/4.36 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.4 WAR

The vibrant, colorful cultures that make up the city of Miami are what define this town. For a very long time, these unfortunately did not reflect the sentiment around the Marlins, Miami’s promising yet briefly successful baseball club. But the change has begun.

Soon after the conclusion of the 2017 season, former owner Jeffrey Loria sold the club for $1.2 billion to a group led by Bruce Sherman and former New York Yankee icon, Derek Jeter. For the Marlins, the Loria era was defined by outstanding players such as Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Fernandez, yet despite these elite players, the absence of winning baseball eluded Marlins fans. 2009 was the last season in which the Marlins were a winning team, and as a result, there have been numerous attempts at changing the negative perception clouding this franchise. The Marlins have gone through numerous “rebranding” experiments in addition to moving into their new stadium (which remains without a corporate partner for the naming rights), and plenty of talented players, but the results have simply not shown. Previous ownership undoubtedly drove fans away from Marlins Park as a result of negative perception to trades and financial commitments (or lack thereof) to the team on the field. Hope was on the horizon in 2013, as the likes of Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna made their debuts in addition to homegrown talent Giancarlo, back then Mike, Stanton blossoming into one of the bigger stars in the game. However, in what seems like a broken record for this franchise, trades and signings just did not pan out. Michael Morse, Wei Yin Chen, Edinson Volquez, and Matt Latos were just some of the reinforcements brought in to strengthen the core of this team, but they simply did not get the job done. The team lacked a strong farm system and depth, after trades to acquire these players essentially gutted the teams foundation, its youth in the minor leagues. Many say the Fish did not reach the playoffs due to injury bugs, but I’m sorry to tell you that’s not how it works. Injuries happen to every team, and the only way to get through those injuries is by having depth and young talent in the farm that can come up and contribute. The death of Jose Fernandez was also a critical turning point for the franchise. A Cuban pitcher, who represented the Hispanic community and strived to be the best, was gone after an unfortunate incident that cost the lives of two others. With the passing of Fernandez, Miami was stunned and shocked. From that day on, the franchise would never be the same, and Jeffrey Loria’s selling of the franchise in November of 2017 was the first of many moves to come for a critically damaged organization, both on and off the field.

The light at the end of the tunnel suddenly grew, and grew fast. Jeffrey Loria accepted the $1.2 billion offer to sell the Marlins to a group led by Bruce Sherman and former MLB superstar, Derek Jeter. People knew changes needed to be made. In his first season at the helm as President of Baseball Operations, Derek Jeter traded the likes of Adeiny Hechavarria, David Phelps, and AJ Ramos to bolster a depleted farm system. The rebuild was inevitable and in purchasing a franchise which was just treading water financially, cost-cutting options were seriously considered.

Derek Jeter’s second year with the organization will be substantial for the franchise. Now it is time to see how all of the acquired players develop. Let’s take a look at what the former New York Yankee icon has done in his second offseason with the Miami Marlins:

OFFSEASON RECAP

The Miami Marlins are the odd guy out in a stacked NL East. With every team in their division making big moves left and right, such as the Phillies acquiring Bryce Harper, the Mets getting Robinson Cano, and so on, the Marlins will try to survive with mostly internal options. 

One word to describe this upcoming season for the Marlins: opportunity. As any team in the midst of a rebuild, the Marlins are excited for their prospects to set foot in the majors. Sixto Sanchez, Victor Victor Mesa, and Monte Harrison are top prospects in the organization who will be with the big league team sooner rather than later. 

The Marlins made some acquisitions this offseason through the free-agent market including Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, and Sergio Romo. Curtis Granderson was signed to Minor League Contract with an invitation to the big league camp. Granderson posted.782 OPS for two teams in 2018. His signing is mostly to hold off the spot until players such as Monte Harrison and Victor Mesa arrive to the big leagues. Sergio Romo signed a one-year contract for $2.5M, and will help out the young back-end of the bullpen, composed of Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley. Don Mattingly has stated that there will be no designated closer, instead it will be based on certain match-ups. Sergio Romo was also the first reliever to bring “The Opener” to life, and the skipper has stated that that strategy will definitely be in play for the Marlins in 2019. Neil Walker also signed a one year contract for $2M, and after a rough, injury-plagued 2018 season, the second baseman is looking to bounce back. These one year deals are key for Miami, since if these players perform and look like they could help a contender, there will be no second thought of shipping them elsewhere. 

On February 7th, the Miami Marlins sent all-star catcher JT Realmuto within the division to the Philadelphia Phillies in a 4-player trade that brought the likes of C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Sixto Sanchez, and LHP Will Stewart to South Florida. Jorge Alfaro is a young a catcher who had 10 HR in 108 games, posted a 96 WRC+ and made hard contact 37.7% of the time in his first major league season. Average defensively, Alfaro is projected to be an above average offensive catcher who can reach 25 HR a season. The only problem with Alfaro is his lack of walks and excess of strikeouts. While still young, and five years under control, Alfaro will have the opportunity to fix those issues before highly regarded prospect Will Banfield starts knocking on the door. Sixto Sanchez, a young RHP from the Dominican Republic who many compare to Pedro Martinez, was the centerpiece of this trade. While throwing high 90’s and reaching triple digits at times, Sixto has also shown great command by posting a 2.12 BB/9. He has excelled in the lower minors by posting a FIP of 2.66 in A+ in 2018. The only problem has been his health, as Sanchez only pitched around 75 innings between 2017 and 2018. The Marlins are planning on keeping his innings under control while still being able to make up for the lost time. Will Stewart was the third and final piece in the trade, an interesting LHP who had a 2.06 ERA in 113.2 innings this past season. Not a hard thrower, he mainly stays within the 91-93 MPH range with his heavy sink fastball, which has produced a 2.4 groundout/flyout ratio, fifth in the minors last year. Besides the players, the Marlins also got around $250k of international signing money. 

SEASON PREVIEW

The Marlins have five players competing for two outfield spots. The only spot that is essentially secured is Sweet Lew in center field. Lewis Brinson, who was coveted as a top-30 prospect in the majors at the beginning of 2018, had a rough rookie year. A really low OBP, below average SLG, and a 30% strikeout ratio has led many fans to believe Lewis is a bust. The fanbase immediately looked back at the Yelich trade, where the Fish gave a to-be MVP for Brinson. One thing the fanbase must realize is that it has only been a year; from Statcast, Brinson made hard contact on 39% of balls he put in play in 2018, 5% more than the MLB average. Also, his BABIP was around 40 points lower than the average MLB player. That shows that Lewis just hasn’t had the best of luck. The one alarming issue with LB is the strikeouts. If Brinson doesn’t improve on them this season, which I highly believe he will, the organization will have some decisions to make. An article by Joe Frisaro early in Spring Training stated that manager Don Mattingly has seen several changes with Brinson’s approach and is optimistic on what Sweet Lew can bring to the team in 2019. 

The other two spots will be a battle between Peter O’Brien, Curtis Granderson, Austin Dean and Garrett Cooper. O’Brien, a 28-year-old 1B/OF, played 22 games with the Marlins at the end of the season. He posted a .530 SLG. Peter definitely has the talent to become a key part of this Marlins rebuild, but we first must see how he can endure throughout 162 games. Austin Dean won the Minor League Position Player of the Year for the Marlins in 2018, and will have every opportunity to win the starting job. Dean has a solid approach and great feel for the barrel so it will be interesting to see how it will all shape out. Garrett Cooper, off the field for almost all of the 2018 season with a right wrist sprain, will be in the outfield discussion, but I believe he will also be sharing time at first base. An interesting player with good power but still has some doubt surrounding him. He can definitely take his walks as well as hit for power, as he did in the minors, but it is still uncertain what he can bring to the big stage.

The other two guys who will be knocking on the door this season are Monte Harrison and Victor Mesa. Monte, acquired from the Yelich trade, is the Marlins #3 prospect. One of the most athletic prospects in the MLB, Monte Harrison has the speed and power to be the franchise player of this organization. His past season in the minors was not as great, as he struck out 215 times in 521 ABs, but in the AFL Harrison seemed to fix some of his issues at the plate by trying different stances and changing his approach. He batted .290 with an OBP of .383, while striking out way less than in the regular season (19 times in 69 ABs.)

Victor Mesa was the Marlins top target this offseason, since he was the #1 prospect in the international market. VVM was signed for $5.25M in October, and instantly became the Marlins top prospect. His speed and defense was something that caught the attention of Miami executives. He will most likely start off the year in A+, but he will surely move up the minors at a fairly fast pace. His ability to make contact with the ball is outstanding, but that leads to him not taking as many walks. His defense and speed are ready for the majors, but we will have to see how he can develop offensively.

Let’s start off with third base. The second-best player for the Marlins in 2018 will be back at his natural position. Brian Anderson was stellar for the Fish last year posting a 113 WRC+. Even though Anderson does hit his fair share of ground balls, 51% of balls in play, he has stated that he is trying to implement more launch angle into his swing. This will ultimately lead to more power from him, a department that indeed needs some help since he only had 11 home runs last year. Right behind him will be Martin Prado, a veteran presence in his contract year. Prado has played less than 100 games between 2017 and 2018, making him a player who can hit for average as long as he stays healthy. Due to his leadership and great clubhouse presence, he will be a key component to help out the younger players adapt to the big leagues more smoothly.

Former All Star Starlin Castro will be back at second base, while JT Riddle and Miguel Rojas split time at short. At first base, I believe that Garrett Cooper and Neil Walker will be splitting time as well. If Pedro Alvarez makes the team out of camp, he can also be an option at first. Behind the plate, recently acquired Jorge Alfaro will take over, with Chad Wallach as the backup.

The starting rotation is set at the top, with ace Jose Urena going on opening day. Urena has improved throughout the years based on FIP. In 2017, he posted a FIP of 5.20, while in 2018; he lowered that number by a whole, posting a 4.17 FIP. Not a strikeout pitcher, Jose Urena relies on his high-speed, heavy sink fastball to get hitters out. He posted a 49.6 GB%, which helped him for a 1.8 WAR.

From there on, the Marlins rotation has a lot of variables. This is a list of the pitchers fighting for a spot:

• Dan Straily
• Sandy Alcantara
• Trevor Richards
• Caleb Smith
• Pablo Lopez
• Wei Yin Chen

The top four on that will most likely get a spot in the starting rotation, from my point of view. Dan Straily has been a steady force for the Marlins, posting just above 4.00 ERA in the past two years. Sandy Alcantara is one of the Marlins top prospects, and he will get every opportunity to secure his job in the majors. With a high-90’s fastball, Sandy Alcantara posted a 3.40 ERA in six starts for the Marlins last year. The only thing Sandy must improve on is the walks. He gave up 23 walks in 34 IP, which translates to a 6.09 BB/9 and a 4.75 FIP. If he can lower the walks by at least half, he will be able to reach his ceiling and become a top of the rotation starter.

When you hear the name Trevor Richards, you hear “change-up.” His 80 grade changeup has opened up eyes all around the league. It was the seventh most chased pitch in the majors all of last season (chased 52.3% of the time), which led to a 9.26 K/9. I am expecting for Richard’s game to take the next step this season, since he had a 4.06 FIP, but a 4.42 ERA. One thing Trevor must do to improve his game is refine his other secondary pitches. His curveball is still well below average, but if he can better it for at least a league-average pitch, the MLB should watch out.

Caleb Smith was the Marlins best pitcher last year. Acquired from the Yankees, the lefty posted a 3.96 FIP in 77.1 IP with 88 strikeouts, but ended up the year in the disabled list with left shoulder tightness. His fastball stays within the 92-96 MPH range, while hitting 97 MPH at times. The Marlins are excited to see what Smith can do over the course of a whole season, as he might end up being a core player in their rotation.

Wei Yin Chen was the story of the year… at home. He posted a 1.62 ERA at Marlins park, but a 9.27 ERA when away. Based on those results, Chen might be have a couple of spot starts in Marlins park, but from my perception I think he will start off the season in the bullpen as a long reliever. Pablo Lopez will look from the outside in; he will be next man up in the rotation and will most likely start off the year in AAA.

Record Prediction: 61-101

Player to Watch #1: 3B Brian Anderson

Many people believed Brian Anderson should have obtained a higher positioning in the ROY votes. With his 113 WRC+ and a 3.4 WAR season, AB has settled himself as an above average third baseman. With slick glove work in the hot corner, and a new approach at the plate, Brian Anderson will take the next step this upcoming season. A guy who can get on base consistently, .357 OBP in 2018, with good barrel-to-ball skills will have a great impact in this young Marlins team. I predict him to hit .280/.360/.440 and produce a 3.7-4.3 fWAR.

Player to Watch #2: 1B/OF Peter O’Brien

The 27-year-old journeyman has seemed to settle in South Florida. Posting a 135 WRC+ last year, O’Brien is looking to go above that in 2019. In 2018, Peter hit a total of 34 HR between AA, AAA, and the majors. This guy has the potential to hit 25+ HRs a year and I believe this will be his breakout season. At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, O’Brien has the framework to be an impactful power hitter, and for the Marlins, an opportunity to have found a diamond in the rough. I predict him to hit .240/.320/.480 with 27 HRs.

Player to Watch #3: 2B Isan Diaz

A young second basemen acquired in the Yelich trade, Isan is regarded as one of the top prospects in the Marlins organization. Many people compare his swing to fellow in-division rival Robinson Cano. With natural power and outstanding plate discipline, Isan Diaz is the Marlins’ 2B of the future. One thing he must improve on before he gets to the majors is to cut down on the strikeouts and make more contact. Last year between AA and AAA he had 27.9 K% while only hitting .240, and surprisingly his OBP was not affected as it stayed above .350. Isan will come up to the majors later in the season, and I expect much to come from this young second baseman.