While a lot of baseball remains to be played in the
2018 MLB season, we’re at a point where we can start looking forward to the
playoffs. Every team wants to win the World Series, of course. But obviously,
some teams are much better positioned to do so than others.
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees have been
battling it out for American League East supremacy all year. Both are certainly
World Series favorites. Still, we can’t call either our top World Series
favorite. Another team with a potentially historic rotation takes that crown.
The National League playoff race remains pretty wide
open. Even still, it’s fairly easy to separate the Senior Circuit’s great teams
from its good ones.
While we’ve seen adequate separation in some races,
we’re still willing to say that any MLB team with a winning record has a
chance. Some need to make a real run soon. But at this point, any team with
more wins than losses can be called a contender.
This is how we rank the 18 current contenders as it
relates to their chances of winning the World Series.
18. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Even if the Rays somehow find their way into the
playoffs, we don’t like their chances. Tampa’s pitching could probably hold up
reasonably, and All-Star or not, Blake Snell takes a backseat
to nobody. The problem is the team’s offense. The Rays are the fifth-worst team
in home runs per game and the second worst at extra-base hits per game. Making
matters worse, Tampa hitters have MLB’s eighth-highest strikeout percentage.
That’s not a recipe for success.
17. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Ultimately, one problem is hard to get past with the
Halos. This team’s bread and butter is Mike Trout. Now, as far as bread and
butter goes, it doesn’t get any better. But if the Angels reached the playoffs,
we’re also guessing that opponents would go into “make anyone but him beat us”
mode. We just don’t trust the rest of the offense. Even with a healthy Shohei
Ohtani, we
also don’t trust the starting rotation. The only bullpen in the league that
allows more home runs per game is the New York Mets. The Halos are a postseason
longshot. But even if the playoffs happen, it’s hard to foresee a long run.
16. COLORADO ROCKIES
To win in the playoffs, you have to pitch. The Rockies
have a staff ERA of 4.77. The only teams worse are the Kansas City Royals,
Chicago White Sox, Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles, who have the four worst
records in baseball. Colorado starters have a 4.55 ERA, the 10th worst in the
game and the worst of any contending team. The Rockies’ bullpen, meanwhile, has
a 5.32 ERA, MLB’s worst. We have to grade on something of a curve for Coors
Field. But even with that in mind, we just don’t trust this team’s pitching.
15. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
The Cardinals don’t have many glaring weaknesses.
Unfortunately, they don’t have much strength, either. In most major categories,
St. Louis is just a middle-of-the-road team. That’s not all bad. But it’s hard
to imagine any team without a real strength going toe-to-toe with the league’s
best in October. Even if those teams have greater weaknesses than the
Cardinals, St. Louis doesn’t have the strengths needed to really exploit them.
14. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
In a way, Oakland is the American League’s version of
Colorado. The offense is championship worthy. We just don’t trust the pitching.
The A’s get a slight nod over Colorado because we like the bullpen a lot more.
Additionally, Sean Manaea has shown that he at least has the potential to be an
ace, even if he struggles with consistency at times. But ultimately, it’s hard
to see Oakland fighting through such a top-heavy AL to even make the playoffs.
Even if that happens, the road through October would be quite bumpy.
13. SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTS
Ultimately, the Giants feel a lot like the
aforementioned Cardinals. The glaring weaknesses aren’t there. Unfortunately,
the clear strengths aren’t, either. We give San Francisco a nod for two
reasons. One, over the last 10 years, the Giants are the only team with
multiple championships — and they have three. Two, when healthy, a rotation
fronted by Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija is dangerous.
That’s enough to give San Francisco some deference. But in reality, this team
going on another deep run through October is quite a longshot.
12. SEATTLE MARINERS
Seattle is a very good team. But in the American
League this year, very good isn’t good enough. This offense will have a hard
time matching up with the Yankees, Red Sox, Houston Astros or Cleveland
Indians. To get to the World Series, the Mariners would need to beat at least
two and probably three of those teams. In terms of pitching, as good as James
Paxton is,
he’s doesn’t match up favorably to Luis Severino, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander
or Corey Kluber. It may seem odd to put a team on pace to win 101 games this
low. But breaking things down, we just can’t go any higher.
11. ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKS
Arizona’s pitching has been fantastic in 2018. The
D-Backs have the third-best staff ERA in the league and the best bullpen ERA.
The starting pitching isn’t always terribly deep. But that’s not always a big
issue in the playoffs. What keeps us from putting Arizona any higher is the
offense. Things are better now than they were in the season’s early weeks. But
much like the Angels with Trout, if opponents focus on avoiding Paul Goldschmidt, we don’t have a ton
of confidence in this offense. In time, that could change. But presently, the offense
is too shaky for us to feel great about the current roster.
10. CLEVELAND INDIANS
The positives with the Indians are that we love the
offense and the top of the starting rotation is solid. But when the game gets
into the bullpen, Cleveland gets a lot shakier. In fact, only the Rockies and
Royals have a higher bullpen ERA than the Indians. Cleveland relievers have
struck out only 8.7 hitters per nine innings, the 18th-best total in baseball.
In 2016, the Indians rode a great bullpen to within a game of a World Series
championship. In 2018, the bullpen has been mediocre to bad. Unless that
changes, it’s hard to take this team too seriously as a World Series threat.
9. PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIES
Aaron Nola has become an ace in
2018. With
him as a Game 1 starter, we’d give the Phillies a chance against anyone. The
rest of the pitching staff, though, gives us some concern. The bigger concern
lies with the offense. Philadelphia hitters strike out in 28.8 percent of their
at-bats. That’s the highest total in the league. Baseball has changed
in recent years, but this has remained consistent. To win in October, you have to put
the bat on the ball. Recent champs like the Astros and Chicago Cubs didn’t
become champs until they learned to do that. That’s a sizable obstacle for the
Phillies to overcome.
8. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
The championship outlook in Los Angeles looks better than it
did earlier in the year. Los Angeles weathered Clayton Kershaw’s injuries and now
sits as a true contender. That’s the good news. The bad news is that we don’t
trust this bullpen. Offensively, the Dodgers have the power to match anyone.
The drawback there is that Los Angeles struggles to score when it doesn’t hit
home runs and still strikes out a bit too much. It’s not hard to imagine the
Dodgers winning a championship. But there are definitely parts of this team’s
game that must be cleaned up.
7. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
The Washington offense is a little hit-or-miss. But as
far as playoff starting rotations go, it doesn’t get much better than Max
Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg (assuming the latter
is healthy).
Gio Gonzalez and Jeremy Hellickson are more than adequate in the No. 3 and No.
4 roles. We know that cruising through the regular season hasn’t helped this
team much in the playoffs. Maybe a bumpy regular season is just what the doctor
ordered for October success. Time will tell on that. If they qualify, the
Nats should be lined up well for a good postseason.
6. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The combination of playing in a smaller market,
sharing a division with the Chicago Cubs, and not having done anything for a
while has caused Milwaukee to get overlooked. But the Brewers not only lead the
NL Central, but actually have the NL’s best record. Certainly, there are some
concerns with Milwaukee. The Brewers do strike out a lot and the starting
rotation isn’t wonderful. But the Brewers have a very deep lineup. Additionally
the Josh Hader-led
bullpen is
absolutely fantastic. October opponents would have to get to that starting
rotation because leads given to that bullpen would not likely be lost.
5. ATLANTA BRAVES
A potential drawback is that the Braves lack a true
ace. Conversely, though, the starting rotation is quite deep. Offensively,
Atlanta can hit home runs if need be. But with hitters like Ozzie Albies and
Ronald Acuna Jr. getting on base and MVP candidate Freddie
Freeman behind
them, the Braves can score without putting the ball over the fence.
Despite a recent rough
series in Milwaukee, we like Atlanta’s World Series viability more than nearly
any other NL teams.
4. NEW YORK YANKEES
It might seem like we’ve underrated the Yankees a bit
here. New York hits for power and has a strong bullpen. Those ingredients tend
to work in the postseason. With that in mind, we wouldn’t be surprised if the
Yanks won. But they also strike out a ton. Furthermore, the discrepancy between
New York’s batting average and batting average if we remove home runs is the
greatest in the league. That does point to a slightly one-dimensional offense.
Finally, outside of Luis Severino, we don’t completely trust this rotation.
Certainly, the Yankees are good. We just like other team’s World Series chances
better.
3. CHICAGO CUBS
While Milwaukee leads the NL Central, we’re giving
we’re giving Chicago a slight edge over its division rival here. The Cubs have
a good offense that doesn’t strike a lot. They also have a bullpen that can
hold leads. There’s no question that the starting rotation needs some work.
It’s a problem the Cubs seem well
aware of.
But Jon Lester gives Chicago a real battle-tested ace who’s been a part of
three World Series champs in his career. We expect a spirited race in the
Senior Circuit. But right now, the Cubs are our favorite to win the pennant.
2. BOSTON RED SOX
The 2017 Red Sox could pitch with anyone. The problem
was that Boston just didn’t
have the offense to hang with a team like Houston. Thanks to the addition
of J.D. Martinez, fantastic play from Mookie Betts, and a lineup that’s
improved nearly everywhere else, that’s different. The Red Sox lead the league
in runs and extra-base hits per game, are second in home runs per game, and
strike out at a lower rate than any team in baseball. This team is well built
for the playoffs in the modern game.
1. HOUSTON ASTROS
Offensively, the Astros can hang with anyone. This is
the same group that won the most offensive World Series ever played. But its Houston’s pitching
that sets it apart. No team comes close to the 3.05 ERA that the Astros
starters have accrued. We can try to nitpick the bullpen, but Houston’s
relievers have the second best ERA in the league. Also consider that, in
addition to possible trades, someone like Lance McCullers (3.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP,
and 9.8 K/9) could get moved to the bullpen for the playoffs. The rotation is
that good. To beat the Astros, opponents will need to be perfect nearly everywhere
else.
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