With only six weeks remaining of the 2018 NFL season, the playoff
picture is becoming clearer. Week 11 is loaded with key matchups, and we’re
going to break down the implications of each important game.
The NFL playoff picture can change quickly, and Week 11
brings an important slate of games that can greatly impact how the rest of the
season plays out. Both the AFC and the NFC have an open competition for a Wild
Card spot in addition to an unsettled divisional race.
We’re going to break down the five matchups that will
directly affect the playoff race. That’s not even counting what could be a
Super Bowl preview in Kansas City Chiefs at the Los Angeles Rams. Since both
are all but locked into a top-two seed, we’ll just be highlighting what to look
forward to with the Monday Night Football contest.
Thursday night’s Green Bay at Seattle slugfest was a big one
for both teams. Neither is in a position to directly takeover in their
respective division but have a shot at making a Wild Card seed if things break
the right way. It was a good tone-setter for what’ll be an emotionally charged
weekend.
TENNESSEE TITANS
AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
With both the Titans and Colts trailing the 6-3 Houston
Texans, this has to be treated as a must-win game for each. Only one-game is
separating each team from each other, but Houston’s six-game win streak has
made their own win streaks a moot point. Falling behind any more is a death
sentence.
It’s not surprising the Titans are competitive in the
division, but how they’ve gotten to their 5-4 mark is. The offense is still
finding itself, but at least offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur has correctly
identified Corey Davis and Dion Lewis as his two best playmakers. Quarterback
Marcus Mariota and the offensive line have been inconsistent though for a
variety of reasons.
LaFluer hasn’t been able to get Mariota as much protection
as last year as he tries to spread defenses out with more receivers. In turn,
those receivers have struggled with drops and separation. Mariota has played
better in recent weeks, but he’s also prone to going several games without
difference-making plays.
On the other hand, the Colts have vastly exceeded
expectations in Frank Reich’s first year as the head coach. It’s clear how much
he meant to the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense now that we’re seeing how both are
doing this year.
The Colts boast one of the top offensive lines in the
league, if not the best, after being putrid for years. The offense has certainly
benefitted from a healthy Andrew Luck, who has shouldered a ridiculous load
after coming back from injury. He’s only responded with career-best numbers.
Their defense is mediocre, but that’s better than what the
on-paper talent said they’d be. This is a well-coached team. They have an
uphill battle for the Wild Card, but they’re going to give the Titans all they
can handle.
Prediction: Colts 31-28
CINCINNATI BENGALS
AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
After jumping out to encouraging starts to the season, both
the Bengals and Ravens have crashed recently due to a slew of injuries and
limitations. It also hasn’t helped that the Steelers have won five straight to
come back from the dead, and the incumbents now look like the prohibitive
favorite in the division again.
But both of these teams are still in the playoff race. The
Bengals own the sixth seed and their own destiny. With the Titans, Dolphins,
Ravens, and Colts lurking behind them, they must strive to win no less than
nine games to secure the playoff spot.
Cincinnati’s reliance on talent over a diverse scheme has
led to uneven results. They’ve alternated wins and losses since Week 3, with
their defense noticeably unable to find a groove. Quality offenses aren’t
having enough trouble dissecting their zone-heavy coverage, prompting Marvin
Lewis to take over the defensive duties this past week.
Losing A.J. Green for a few weeks will likely cost the
offense dearly too. Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has done little besides
heavily targeting his best talents, so he’ll have to dial up more combination
routes to maximize Tyler Boyd’s and John Ross’ unique skills. This should be a
good-enough group to win games, but it’s also unfair to ask them to score 40
every week.
The Ravens are also in a tough slump, dropping three-in-a-row
and having uncertainty at quarterback. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported
that Lamar Jackson missed Thursday’s practice due to a stomach illness, and Joe
Flacco is still questionable to play. It’s possible Robert Griffin III starts.
Flacco’s play dipped back into an unacceptable range after a
hot start, so it’s time for them to start transitioning to Jackson regardless
of their playoff status. Jackson may not be better this year, or ever, but he
offers a higher upside and dynamic for this unit that lacks consistent
playmaking. He could bring a needed spark to this 4-5 team.
I’ll take the Bengals due to the uncertainty of the
quarterback situation for Baltimore.
Prediction: Bengals 20-17
HOUSTON TEXANS AT
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The AFC’s and NFC’s fourth seed collide this week and the
Houston Texans and Washington Redskins share quite a bit in common. Both are
6-3 and lead their divisions, somewhat surprisingly. Neither seems to have the
confidence of the public as favorites to close out the season as divisional
winners.
Houston doesn’t have a good team, but rather extreme
strengths they’ve been able to ride for six straight wins. Their offensive
play-calling from Bill O’Brien is repetitive and predictable. The blocking is
poor on top of it. And the secondary is severely lacking talent.
Yet, the passing game thrives due to Deshaun Watson’s
ability to extend plays, and the defensive front seven carries the defense.
They’ve beat a bunch of bad teams, and each of their wins looks nearly
identical as they have to open up the offense in the second half to finally
score points.
This will likely be a good enough strategy to win the South
as long as they win their head-to-head game next week. They have somewhat
favorable games against Cleveland, Indianapolis, New York Jets, and
Jacksonville left on the schedule. It’s possible they hit 10 wins.
Due to their two-game lead, this game isn’t quite as
critical for Washington, but it does represent a significant win if they can
pull it off. As the Eagles play the Saints, the Redskins could jump to
three-games up on the incumbent champions with a win and Eagles loss.
What the Redskins are doing is not a fluke. They’re an
average but veteran team with a reliable quarterback and quality defensive
front seven. Even in a pass-dominated league, that’s a recipe that’s allowed
them to win games they should, even if it means also consistently losing when
they’re the lesser team.
Washington is a high-floor, low-ceiling team due to their
offensive personnel. They can grind out a win this week by keeping Watson in
the pocket and forcing him to play within the structure. It’s easier said than
done, but defensive studs like Matt Ioannidis, Ryan Kerrigan, and Daron Payne
will help.
Prediction: Washington 24-23
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
AT CHICAGO BEARS
The Chicago Bears have found their offensive footing in
recent weeks, leaving them with the fourth-best point differential in the
league this season. Bet you wouldn’t have guessed that. And yet, at 6-3, the
Bears aren’t completely safe and can score a huge win this week.
They host the Vikings, a team that has won four of their
last five games but is still not doing as well as expected of them. Many
expected this team to be elite with the addition of Kirk Cousins, but a return
of their anemic running game and less consistency from the defense has left
them at a pedestrian 5-3-1 record.
I think both teams are better than their records despite
some turbulence in the first half of the season. Both are currently in the
playoff bracket, and the Packers don’t seem to be a major threat to breaking
into their two-team race. The Seahawks might be the biggest competition to
knock one of them out of a Wild Card spot.
Still, both of these teams are better than Seattle.
The Bears have a loaded team. They’ll go as far as rookie
head coach Matt Nagy and quarterback Mitch Trubisky will take them. I don’t
usually like to boil it down to that level, but those are their two biggest
question marks due to their inexperience and quality of their roster.
Watch for Nagy to attack the Vikings’ linebackers on
crossers and seam passes. The Vikings have a wonderful collection of talent but
they’ve played disjointed against pre-snap motion and combination routes.
Minnesota’s also a high-caliber team though, and have
already figured out how to solve some of their own issues. Whether they can
protect Cousins and Dalvin Cook enough to produce more than 20 points and put
strain on Trubisky is their top question this game.
If Minnesota can be disciplined against Nagy’s false motion
and give Cousins some time to find his tremendous receivers, they’ll earn a win
that’ll separate them from the pack by one game in the Wild Card race.
For Chicago, this game is about pressuring Cousins, and
getting Trubisky more easy yards. Their pathway to win is easier due to that,
but it’s easier to trust the veteran Vikings, who also need this game more.
Prediction: Vikings 24-21
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Eagles are in a position that few saw coming after they
won the Super Bowl and aggressively acquired Michael Bennett via trade: sitting
at a season’s crossroads at 4-5 down two games in the division. Unfortunately,
they have the ultimate test of traveling to New Orleans in what’s nearly a
must-win game.
Their potential saving grace is they still play the Redskins
twice this year. Win those and reaching eight or nine total victories could
steal the division. But this team is severely lacking the offensive consistency
and creativity they produced in 2017.
Losing Frank Reich and John DeFillippo has hurt, as has
dealing with injuries along the offensive line, running back position, and wide
receiver. Quarterback Carson Wentz has been solid but often what’s around him
has let him down in key situations.
The defense also hasn’t produced as many short fields for
Wentz as they did last year. The secondary has been reduced to playing random
street free agents due to injuries, and there’s little that defensive
coordinator Jim Schwartz can do to cover for their flaws. Their decision to not
invest more into the position for another legitimate starter across from Darby
and Sidney Jones has been a lingering issue all season.
It’ll all come to a head this week. I don’t see a pathway
for Philadelphia to win in New Orleans unless there are a few turnovers, or the
Eagles suddenly play like last year’s playoffs. They aren’t that same team and
they lack the ingredients to whip up a quick solution to their personnel
limitations.
The Saints will continue to heavily involve future All-Pro
receiver Michael Thomas, and the Eagles have no way to slow him outside of
committing three defenders his way. Even then, Drew Brees has been so good that
he’ll still likely find a small passing window to hit for completions.
Brees is absolutely an MVP candidate at 39 years old with
his absurd 77.3 completion rate and 22-1 touchdown to interception rate. He’s
not the consistently dynamic downfield passer he once was, but he doesn’t have
to be in this era and with these playmakers.
For the most part, the Saints defense has somewhat settled
over the last two months. The Eagles will find success with their tight ends
and likely slot receivers since the Saints continue to run Cover 4 looks often,
but as long as they don’t hemorrhage big plays, their offense will do plenty
against a beaten-up Eagles’ defense to get a statement win at home.
Prediction: New Orleans 45-27
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
Since this game doesn’t have much impact on the playoff
races, I’ll keep it short. This is expected to be the game of the year due to
the offensive talent on both sides of the ball. It should theoretically follow
the Saints-Rams path where both teams could score at-will outside of
self-inflicted mistakes.
Both teams have cutting-edge offensive coaches, elite young
quarterbacks, dynamic playmakers, and mediocre defenses. They’re leading title
contenders in the truest sense because of their explosiveness. It took other
elite coaches (Sean Payton and Bill Belichick) to defeat these two teams.
The Rams have the more star-studded defense, but Wade
Philips has been too aggressive at times with his coverages. It’s put pressure
onto his young safeties, and they’ve not been the playmakers he’s needed.
Cornerback Marcus Peters has been better than
advertised but is still out of position without Aqib Talib.
The Chiefs can take a slight advantage of the Rams’
secondary better than the Rams can over the Chiefs’ conservative defense.
Kansas City will try to bend but not break, which is tough against the Rams. If
Jared Goff is in rhythm against pressure, they’re almost impossible to
outscore.
Fairly or not, the league’s MVP decision may be heavily
swayed by this game. Both Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff should earn
consideration for their efforts. So should Aaron Donald, but he’ll likely
“settle” for Defensive Player of the Year.
Like against the Saints, I think the Rams’ defense has just
one too many holes without Talib, allowing the Chiefs to pull off a close,
high-scoring win.
Prediction: Kansas City 42-38
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