PATS DOWN BUT NOT OUT; PLUS,
TOP FIVE MVP CANDIDATES
Here’s where I catch you up on everything you need to know as we turn
from Week 10 to Week 11.
The Patriots'
thorough beatdown at the hands of the Titans on Sunday has sparked
another round of Football America's favorite game: Is the decline of
the empire finally here?
While the handwringing in Boston
feels especially overwrought with New England at 7-3 just one week after the
city was celebrating a great win over Green Bay, Bill Belichick has a lot to
work on during the team's bye week.
It's remarkable how similar Tom Brady's
struggles were against
Detroit in Week 3 and Tennessee on Sunday, perhaps his two
worst games of an uneven season that has included precious little continuity in
terms of the offensive personnel. The Titans'
front seven and secondary worked so well in tandem. Tennessee pressured with
blitzes and stunts that remained unpredictable throughout the game. Mike
Vrabel's team won up front. The Patriots missed
guard Shaq Mason and
tackle Trent Brown,
with Brady clearly uncomfortable and sometimes expecting pressure before it
arrived. More importantly, the secondary did a great job changing assignments
before the snap and disguising coverages to force Brady into being indecisive.
That's easier to say than
accomplish, but the Titans and Lions did
a fantastic job of maintaining mental pressure on Brady throughout their
respective games. Including the Week 2
defeat in Jacksonville, it's notable that the Patriots never
problem-solved in their three losses this season. They went down hard early and
never recovered. More than usual, the Patriots have
relied on their scheme and play calls winning, rather than their players.
The Titans were
uniquely suited to execute this game plan because of a talented, deep veteran
secondary that could handle all the various assignments without a breakdown in
communication. The familiarity with the New England offense shared by
former Patriots Malcolm and Logan Ryan surely
didn't hurt, but Adoree'
Jackson's coverage on Josh Gordon was
even more crucial.
After two years as the best QB in
football, Tom Brady is
hovering around No. 12 in my season-long QB Index grades. He's seventh in PFF's
grades and 11th in QBR for this season. The sky is hardly falling, but
the Patriots'
passing game clearly isn't at the same level as it has been in previous years.
There is certainly room for improvement as New England heads into its bye.
Brady's timing with Julian
Edelman and Gordon needs to improve. The offensive line should
get healthier, and the expected return of Rob Gronkowski (who
has missed three of the
last four games) will make everyone better, especially when the team
goes up-tempo. Getting Gronk, Sony Michel,
Edelman, Gordon and James White playing
at the same time should help bolster an offense that is thinner than
usual. Rex Burkhead might also return.
At this stage of Brady's career,
the regular season has essentially become a 17-week training ground building to
the part of the season that matters. The Patriots'
level traditionally raises in November, which is why the loss to the Titans sticks
out so much.
Tests remain against
Minnesota and
Pittsburgh, but anything less than 11 wins would be a surprise, with
so many soft AFC East games left. One problem for the Patriots is
that they might not be done facing Belichick disciples. Vrabel's Titans and
Romeo Crennel's Texans defense
loom as potential playoff opponents, and the rest of the AFC can just turn on
the Week 10 game film to see one way to scramble the hardwiring in Brady's
mainframe.
THINGS WE KNOW AFTER WEEK 10
WEEKLY PROCLAMATIONS ABOUT THE STATE OF THE NFC EAST ARE USELESS.
Last week, the Redskins suffered the most
devastating loss of the season, the Jason Garrett era was all
but over in Dallas and the Eagles had
the best bye week in NFL history. Now the Redskins
are two games up again in the division and Cowboys fans
are wondering if the team can run the table after Dallas beat
Philadelphia. The Eagles and Cowboys
have played consistently mediocre football all season. The Redskins have
proven more resourceful, but they are punching above their weight at 6-3. It
will probably take until Week 17 on "Sunday Night Football" to sort
out which 9-7 squad gets a home playoff game.
THE EAGLES' OFFENSIVE LINE IS HOLDING THEM BACK.
The Eagles'
offense doesn't create explosive plays and struggles in short-yardage
situations -- that's a killer combination for a team that always seems to be on
third down.
THINGS WE DON'T KNOW AFTER
WEEK 10
HOW COOPER KUPP'S INJURY WILL IMPACT THE RAMS.
Rams coach
Sean McVay confirmed Monday that he won't be dialing up plays on "Third-and-Kupp" any more this season. Cooper Kupp's torn ACL is
a massive loss for a Rams offense
that uses the same personnel on nearly every play.
Kupp already missed two games
this season and most of a third, so there is a blueprint for what the Rams will
do. Josh Reynolds played
over 85 percent of the team's snaps in the two games Kupp missed, only catching
four passes for 62 yards combined in those two games. Jared Goff's
numbers dipped significantly during the three games in which Kupp missed
serious time, although that was partly because he barely needed to throw in an
easy win over the 49ers and
a run-heavy victory in Denver.
It's a shame that we won't see
the Chiefs'
and Rams'
offenses face each other at full strength next Monday,
but this time of year isn't about full strength. Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods have
both played like top-20 receivers this season, and the Rams'
offense should have more than enough left to keep playing at a high level.
Kupp's injury just reduces the team's margin for error and increases the need
for the inconsistent Rams defense
to pick up the slack.
IF THE AFC SOUTH CAN GET TWO TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFFS AGAIN.
The odds are increasing.
The Titans played their second straight complete game, with their young
playmakers all making a difference. Davis dominated his matchup
with Patriots cornerback Stephon
Gilmore, and Marcus
Mariota has played three consecutive clean games at
quarterback, stepping up well in the pocket and using his threat to run
efficiently.
The Colts have
transformed from the best 1-5 team in football to the best 4-5 team in
football. They won their
"loser goes home" matchup with the Jaguars on Sunday
by boat-racing the disorganized Jaguars in
the first half and then holding on for dear life. The Colts have
a similarly important home test against
Tennessee this week. The winner of that game could have the inside
track on the No. 6 seed in the AFC, because the schedule favors that spot
coming out of the AFC South rather than the AFC North.
MVP WATCH
One of my pet peeves in NFL
broadcasts happens when analysts suggest that some player having a great year
that clearly isn't going to win the MVP should at least "be part of the
MVP conversation." This isn't the NBA, where every voter puts five players
on the ballot. There's only one vote on every ballot, and I suspect nearly all
50 voters would currently be choosing between Drew Brees and Patrick
Mahomes.
That said ... For the purpose of
this exercise, I'm going to list my top five MVP candidates every week. But
yeah, it should probably just be two players at this stage, because Brees and
Mahomes have been the best two players by a wide margin this season, and I'd be
stunned if one of those two wasn't accepting the award by season's end. Both
players just hope to be accepting it via awkward video submission during the
NFL Honors awards because they'll have better things to do the night before
the Super Bowl.
1) Drew Brees,
QB, New Orleans Saints: Brees gets the slight edge over Mahomes
because of the variety of different ways he's had to win. Despite Mahomes'
superhuman athleticism, Brees has made more plays on his own.
2) Patrick
Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: Next Monday
night's matchup in Mexico between the Rams and Chiefs could go a
long way toward determining Mahomes' MVP chances. I'm sure you won't hear this
trenchant analysis any other time before game time.
3) Jared Goff,
QB, Los Angeles Rams: Trying to separate Goff's value from his coach
is missing the point. Goff makes nearly as many wow throws as
any quarterback, with the Rams'
repetitive precision on offense resembling the Peyton Manning-era Colts.
4) Aaron Rodgers,
QB, Green Bay Packers: I know I'm supposed to put a running back (Todd Gurley? Alvin Kamara?)
or a wideout here, but does anyone really think those players
are more valuable than Rodgers playing close to the peak of his powers? Maybe
I'll bend to populist whims next week and throw Michael
Thomas a bone, but just know it will be half-hearted.
5) Aaron Donald,
DT, Los Angeles Rams: If there were a stat for drive-stopping plays,
Donald would surely have the league lead. If feels like the Rams only get
stops if Donald is the one who
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