DECEMBER LIES
EXPOSED IN DIVISIONAL ROUND
December lied. After the best teams in the NFL stumbled down
the stretch in the regular season, this playoff field was advertised as one of
the most evenly matched, balanced tournaments in memory, especially in the AFC.
Smash cut to the Divisional Round, where the Chiefs put up 24 points before
the Colts had
a first down and where the Patriots scored
four touchdowns in their
first four drives on the way to a 35-7 halftime lead over
the Chargers,
conjuring memories of their beatdown over the Tim Tebow-led Denver
Broncos in January
2012.
At least the Eagles and Cowboys made
their opponents sweat. The tensest moments of the weekend came during the
crucial fourth-down
plays in Los Angeles and when the No. 1-seeded Saints
were forced to overcome a 14-point
deficit.
Nick Foles'
hold on the NFL is over -- at least until the
offseason -- but the pattern of top seeds holding form in the
NFL playoffs is nothing new. This will be the sixth straight season in which
all eight teams that played on Wild Card Weekend failed to reach the Super Bowl. It shouldn't be that
surprising to see home teams with superior records and a week of rest usually
win, yet it's somehow fitting this weekend went so chalk in
the year we believed was wide open. Even when the NFL goes as expected, it's
somehow busting a narrative. Before looking ahead, let's break down some other
shattered storylines.
BUSTED NARRATIVES
OF DIVISIONAL ROUND
TOP DEFENSES ADJUSTED LATE IN THE SEASON: When
scoring went down in December, the members of the Defense Wins
Championships camp trotted out the usual party lines, getting
downright gleeful in noting that the Rams-Chiefs Game
That Changed Football Forever hot takes didn't age well. The entire
argument is tiring, as if there's ever going to be one way to win football
games, as if the evolution of the sport is infinite and as if we need to divide
into pass-first or defense-first camps to analyze the game.
Saying something doesn't age well inevitably doesn't age
well. The two best defenses in the playoffs -- Chicago and Baltimore -- didn't
make it out of the first round. The team with the higher-ranked defense
according to Football Outsiders' DVOA lost three of the four games in
the Divisional Round, with the Saints being
the exception. The Chiefs, Saints, Rams and Patriots comprise
the NFL's four highest-scoring teams this season and were four of the top five
teams in offensive DVOA (which gives more credence to late-season games), with
the Saints and Patriots finishing
behind the Chargers.
Of course there were excellent defensive
performances, but perhaps the biggest commonality in the four teams remaining
is excellent offensive line play. The Rams ran
roughshod over the Cowboys'
young linebackers. The Patriots kept
the Chargers off
balance with heavy fronts. The Chiefs' Damien
Williams and the Rams' C.J. Anderson showed
that quality running backs can be found cheaply, but diverse offenses that can
challenge every aspect of a defense are the stuff of champions. Whatever
"adjustments" that defenses made in December were countered by
January, when everything sets up for a high-scoring Championship Sunday.
THE COLTS WERE
BUILT FOR COLD WEATHER: This take gained
steam late last week as it became clear how chilly it would be
in Kansas City. Colts general
manager Chris Ballard did impressive work improving Indy's overall toughness,
but the team's improved offensive line was out of sorts in K.C. Dee Ford and Justin
Houston blew up plays from the back side before they got
started. Colts right
tackle Braden Smith couldn't
handle Ford in the passing game.
As impressive as the Chiefs'
defensive line was, the Kansas City offensive line dominated even more. This
game should be a wake-up call for Ballard in how he attacks the offseason.
The Colts'
talent base on the defensive line and at the skill positions still needs
serious upgrades.
NICK FOLES IS AN INFALLIBLE DEITY WHO WILL ONE DAY RULE US ALL: Foles
would have never bought into this narrative. He's the one, at the very moment
of his greatest triumph, who came up with a defining quote about failure.
It was still jarring to see Foles play a significant role in
the Eagles'
letdown in the Superdome. Foles played brilliantly in the first quarter, but
his heat-check interception
in Saints territory to start the second quarter helped turn the
game around. Perhaps Foles would have written another surprising comeback
had Alshon
Jeffery caught his
fourth-quarter pass, but that play was part of a sustained run of
unforced errors that the 2017 Eagles didn't
make. Foles occasionally looked rattled by pressure and made a few off-target
third-down throws. It happens.
Now Foles enters an offseason where he holds all the cards.
Barring the Eagles making
a shocking, shortsighted choice to trade Carson Wentz and
give Foles the guaranteed money worthy of a starting quarterback, Foles seems
likely to buy back his freedom with a mutual option in his contract, or just
head straight for the market if the Eagles don't
pick up the option. It's almost better this way because Eagles
fans don't handle failure with as much grace as Foles. They can remember him in
all his glory.
CHARGERS DEFENSIVE
COORDINATOR GUS BRADLEY HAS UNCOVERED A NEW WAY TO PLAY DEFENSE: The Patriots saw
Bradley's defensive-back heavy, zone-dependent scheme and ran right through it.
While the Patriots'
coaching staff adjusted on both sides of the ball from drive to drive,
the Chargers stuck
too long on what wasn't working. Which reminds me...
THE PATRIOTS'
STRUGGLES WERE SO DIFFERENT THIS YEAR: This was a relative down year
for the Patriots'
offense, and the team as a whole was more of a top-five or top-six group all
season rather than a juggernaut. But that's exactly what makes the Patriots'
run under Tom Brady
and Bill Belichick so different: They are very, very good even in down years.
It's not like they are more short-handed than the 2011 squad that almost won
a Super Bowl with one
of the league's worst defenses. They aren't struggling offensively like the
2015 team that came a few plays away from the Super Bowl despite a poor offensive
line and inert running game led by Steven Jackson at the bitter end. Their
offensive and defensive rankings are very similar to the 2013 team that lost to
the Broncos in
the AFC Championship Game, which was around the time when some fatalistic Patriots fans
began to think they could no longer win the big one.
Probably the biggest departure for this team is the least
talked about. Belichick is coaching up a mediocre special-teams group for the
first time in a long time, so he had to be thrilled when it helped create a
turnover Sunday.
While Rob
Gronkowski is clearly not the player he once was, the
performances by Julian
Edelman, James White, Trey Flowers and
the interior offensive line felt very familiar. This is not the best Patriots
team Belichick has coached and they'll probably come up short like the editions
mentioned above, but this season never marked a big departure from the last
decade. No team in NFL history has put itself in position to win more, with
Belichick knowing better than anyone how often good fortune can decide whether
history remembers his team or not.
WHAT I KNOW AFTER
DIVISIONAL ROUND
(1) THE COWBOYS'
OFFENSIVE LINE IS NO LONGER SPECIAL. It has two future Hall of Fame candidates in Tyron Smith and Zack Martin,
but center Joe Looney and
left guard Connor Williams were
huge liabilities Saturday night in Los Angeles. Even Martin struggled to handle
the power of Ndamukong Suh, Aaron Donald and Michael
Brockers.
The Cowboys called
plays all season as if the team's old offensive line was still around.
The return of
center Travis Frederick -- who missed the season after being
diagnosed with Guillain-Barre syndrome, an autoimmune disease, in August --
would provide the team with a huge boost in 2019. Whether that happens or not,
the Cowboys staff
needs to do a better job of putting Dak Prescott
and Ezekiel
Elliott in a position to succeed. We do know coach Jason
Garrett will be there
to oversee it all, which doesn't make me more optimistic about an
offense still searching for its 2014 efficiency.
(2) ANYONE WHO THINKS DIFFERENTLY ABOUT ANDREW LUCK AFTER
ONE ROUGH PERFORMANCE IN KANSAS CITY NEEDS TO WATCH MORE COLTS GAMES. This
season was a massive victory for Luck and he was poignantly grateful for the
experience even after his bitter defeat. Luck showed enough under Frank Reich
to believe that Luck, like Tom Brady,
could be a better player in his 30s than he was in his 20s.
(3) RAMS COACH
SEAN MCVAY IS NOT AFRAID. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal
in the fourth quarter was not as bold as his decision to go for it on
fourth-and-1 from the Rams'
45-yard line in the first quarter. McVay also dialed up a Brandin Cooks end-around
on third down inside the 11-yard line and a Jared Goff keeper
on third-and-7 to close out the game when the outcome was still very much in
doubt.
WHAT I DON'T KNOW
AFTER DIVISIONAL ROUND
(1) WHAT EAGLES GENERAL
MANAGER HOWIE ROSEMAN WILL DO THIS OFFSEASON. Saying goodbye to Nick Foles may
be the simplest part of the Philadelphia offseason. Veterans like Jason Kelce, Timmy
Jernigan and Jason Peters could
be released. They also have free agents like Ronald Darby, Golden Tate, Brandon
Graham, Haloti Ngata, Darren
Sproles and Jordan Hicks.
(2) WHETHER DREW BREES NEEDS
TO REGAIN HIS MVP FORM FOR THE SAINTS TO
WIN THE SUPER BOWL. Despite
the Saints'
win, Brees made enough poor throws Sunday to spark concern that he's not quite
out of his late-season slide. New Orleans' offense has perhaps been too reliant
on Brees magic all year and many of his logic-defying completions haven't
worked since Week 12. The Saints'
defense, running game and the presence of Michael
Thomas, however, could make New Orleans the most well-rounded team
still playing. Brees and Jared Goff might
be more alike in their strengths and their roles heading into the NFC
Championship Game than most believe.
(3) HOW THE PATRIOTS'
SUCCESS WILL IMPACT A DIVISION RIVAL'S FUTURE. NFL Network Insider Ian
Rapoport broke the news that Patriots defensive
play-caller Brian Flores is expected to become the next
Dolphins head coach. It's uncertain how badly the timing will impact
Flores' ability to put a coaching staff together, especially if the Patriots make
the Super Bowl. Six teams have
already made their coaching hires official, so Flores could be playing catch-up
if he continues to demonstrate why the Dolphins picked
him in the first place.
No comments:
Post a Comment