In the first edition of this series, I wondered when the
rising crop of stars at quarterback over for the QBs who created a golden
age for the position, maintaining a standard of excellence that never seemed to
end. That was five and a half years ago. It's a theme I've
revisited again and again, slow to realize that players like Tom Brady and Drew Brees were
in the midst of rewriting expectations about athletic primes, not unlike other
athletes throughout the sports world. Just as Brady has created a career arc
never seen before in the NFL, LeBron James, Roger Federer and many others are
creating new barriers for future generations to reach.
Which brings us to this weekend's conference championship games. It is too
simple, too easy, to position the weekend as the young guns, Patrick
Mahomes and Jared Goff (combined
age: 47) against two G.O.A.T.s, Brady and Brees, refusing to go out to pasture.
So many other factors besides the quarterbacks will determine who wins on
Sunday, yet there's no denying how different Super Bowl week could feel depending
on the winners. It could be two veteran quarterbacks who are locks for
the Hall of Fame battling
for another shot at glory, possibly their last. Or it could be something
totally fresh, like when Kurt Warner first brought the Rams or
Brady first brought the Patriots.
If the last six seasons have taught us anything, it's that the old guard will
not exit the stage without a fight.
For this week's QB
Index, I asked one big question of each of the four remaining passers.
CAN THE CHIEFS
INTERRUPT TOM BRADY'S ZEN-LIKE STATE?
The most untold story of Tom Brady's
2018 season was how many open receivers he never saw. Greg Bedard of the Boston Sports
Journal, who has been charting Brady for years, detailed weekly the
times where Brady didn't see the field clearly. Brady's arm and accuracy have
been fine overall. His pocket presence and movement declined, especially after
suffering a knee injury in
Week 10, but the lack of clarity in reading defenses was the most
uncharacteristic flaw in an uneven campaign.
That intermittent fogginess was cleared away in the brisk
Foxborough air during the
Divisional Round. Perhaps it was the week off for Brady's knee to
improve. Perhaps it was a matchup against a zone-based Gus Bradley defense that
Brady knows inside and out. Maybe it takes the playoffs for Brady to truly feel
alive inside again, like some spoiled Patriots fans
that view the regular season as an extended warm-up.
Whatever the reason, Brady attacked the Chargers'
defense with a Zen-like calm of a master craftsman doing what he knows best. He
knew which receivers would be open before the play started and got rid of the
ball exceptionally fast. On the rare plays where his offensive line struggled,
like when Joey Bosa beat Trent Brown to
the inside on the game's first drive, Brady calmly hopped inside the pocket
before finding his checkdown receiver. It was a test where Brady had all the
answers.
If Brady's confidence ever flagged this season, it should be
sky high now. His tag-team partner, Julian
Edelman, has rounded into peak form. The offensive line and running
game are among the better groups the Patriots have
had this decade. Brady also played superb football in Week 17
against the Jets and his best game of the season, based on my
grading system, came against the Chiefs in Week 6.
Kansas City plays a high amount of man coverage, which traditionally has given
the Patriots'
offenses more problems. Dee Ford, Justin
Houston and Chris Jones all
figure to make Brady less comfortable than he looked against the Chargers,
yet cold-weather January football is where he's done so much of his best work.
There has been a lot of attention paid this week to Brady's
postgame comments playing up
disrespect, but I'm more interested in the mindset he's displayed
during his midweek press conferences.
"It's just naturally a level of intensity you can't
really emulate at any other point in the season and really, for us, any other
point in our life," Brady said about the playoffs earlier this month.
"We all work hard to get to this point. To have an opportunity like we
have, I don't think you take it for granted."
These are the weeks Brady lives for. The clear-headed calm
and evident joy he took while doing his job last week should give Chiefs fans
pause.
WHAT'LL PATRICK MAHOMES
DO AFTER MOVING PAST ANDY REID'S SCRIPTED PLAYS?
Andy Reid's teams start fast. This is true when looking at
the NFL season as a whole, as his Chiefs squads of the last couple years
have raced off to early undefeated records while the rest of the league
studies, copies and tries to slow down what MasterChef Reid has cooked up.
However, unlike in past years, Kansas City never really hit an extended cold
streak this season, ranking as one of the great units of the last decade.
The Chiefs also
start games like Tyreek Hill hitting
the open field. They outscored opponents 147-56 in the opening 15 minutes this
year, a ridiculous spread that shows how comfortable they are playing with the
lead. They did it again in the
Divisional Round, popping out to a 14-0 advantage in the first
quarter on the strength of Reid's play calls before the Colts caught
their breath. Patrick
Mahomes didn't have to do that much to jump
out to the lead, which was typical of how the Chiefs rolled
all year. Reid won the first quarter. Mahomes did the rest, often with the
skills you can't coach, including throwing passes that arrived at their
destination so fast that defenders found themselves out of position to make
tackles.
The Chiefs mostly
survived their offensive lulls during the season because of their big leads.
They had a stretch against the Colts where
they didn't score for five straight possessions, but it hardly mattered.
The Patriots'
offense figures to give Mahomes less of a margin for error once they make
defensive adjustments. While the expected frigid weather could hurt the passing
game of both teams, it should hurt the Chiefs more
because they are so reliant on the deep pass.
One overlooked aspect of Mahomes' performance against
the Colts was
his inaccuracy. He missed a number of midrange-to-deep throws after the first
two drives that were uncharacteristic of his season. A number of passes came
out of his hand off target. Whether that was just an example of a slightly off
day or Mahomes' struggles with the weather is hard to say. But it's a safe
assumption Bill Belichick will be happy if the Patriots survive
the Chiefs'
opening blitz with a lead or a tie game because it's a position Mahomes hasn't
had to deal with often, especially at home.
WILL DREW BREES
COMPLETE SOME PASSES HE SHOULDN'T?
Brees blasted past his own all-time completion percentage
record this season, finishing at 74.4. A number that preposterous
conjures images of bubble screens and dump-offs, but what set Brees' season
apart were all his completions that should have hit the
ground. Brees created as many plays on his own as Patrick
Mahomes during the first three-quarters of the season, often
throwing passes through holes in coverage that evaporated on sight. Whether it
was Brees escaping pressure to beat the perfect blitz call in Baltimore or
threading the needle on a number of third-and-long completions against the
Rams, everything Brees did was extra. Until December.
Four of Brees' lowest five grades of the season have come in
the previous five games. That includes a solid performance in the
Divisional Round that started with a few throws that were
uncharacteristically late and a few deep passes that came up short.
Buoyed by a strong running game and excellent protection
overall, Brees righted the ship. He moved Eagles defenders with his eyes
in some key long-yardage situations and got the Saints'
offense back to efficient when it mattered most. But the sizzle plays weren't
there. The receivers outside of Michael
Thomas and Ted Ginn were
quiet. It was a workmanlike performance in a season that inspired more
Brees appreciation, think pieces and fireworks than any in his
career. The sought-after MVP award isn't going to happen. But if Brees can show
the form on Sunday at 40 years old that he showed for so much of his age-39
season, he won't mind at all.
CAN JARED GOFF
CARRY HIS OFFENSE?
Criticism surrounding Goff's last three games is misplaced.
After a rough stretch of play from Weeks 13-15, Rams coach
Sean McVay notably took some responsibilities off of Goff's plate and centered
the Rams'
attack around their suddenly bruising running game. It played to the Rams'
strengths and was a quiet, subtle way to reset Goff's confidence after a slump.
The strategy has worked like a charm and Goff has done his part, making smart
decisions and pinpoint throws when called upon. His performance against the
Cowboys was nearly flawless, including a few third-down strikes
where he hit his receivers in such perfect stride that Bill Walsh would
approve.
Goff should be throwing strikes when his
protection is flawless. He faced pressure from Dallas on only one of 28
dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats, which is the second-lowest rate of
pressure any quarterback faced in a single game this season with a minimum of
20 attempts. He was similarly unbothered in Week 17.
Goff has done his job well over the last three weeks, yet
he's only been asked to attempt 26 passes per game. It's hard to imagine him
throwing the ball so infrequently in New Orleans when the Saints have
such a strong run defense and the game figures to be a shootout. It appeared
early this season that Goff had made the leap to
the type of top-five quarterback who can carry a team with dazzling throws.
That's probably what it will require for the Rams to
pull off a road upset because running for 273 yards, like they did against
Dallas, is unlikely to happen this week.
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