Sunday, April 7, 2019

NBA AWARDS PREDICTIONS


WHO I THINK WILL AND SHOULD WIN?
Who should win the major NBA awards this season? And who will win? There's a tight race for MVP between Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden, and a deep list of candidates for each trophy.
With less than a week to go in the regular season, I offer my picks and predictions for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man and Most Improved Player.
The NBA will officially announce the winners June 24.
Rookie of the Year
Trae Young's incredible finish to the season isn't enough to supplant Luka Doncic, who is an overwhelming favorite, according to our panel.
All season long, Doncic has combined usage, efficiency and scoring in rare ways for a player his age.
Who Should Win?
PLAYER
POINTS
1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Luka Doncic | DAL
194
92.5
2. Trae Young | ATL
116
7.5
3. Deandre Ayton | PHX
29
0.0
Others receiving votes: Marvin Bagley IIIMikal BridgesShai Gilgeous-AlexanderJaren Jackson Jr.Mitchell RobinsonLandry Shamet and Collin Sexton
Who will win?
  • Luka Doncic: 98 percent
  • Trae Young: 2 percent
COACH OF THE YEAR
The most challenging leap to make in the NBA is going from good to great. The Milwaukee Bucks' ascendancy to best regular-season team -- with mostly the same pieces from last season -- is driving Mike Budenholzer's candidacy here. He has developed a system around Antetokounmpo that has made the Bucks top three in both offensive and defensive rating.
Budenholzer is joined by a deep list of strong candidates, but it looks like he has pulled away.
Who Should Win?
COACH
POINTS
1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Mike Budenholzer | MIL
136
52.5
2. Doc Rivers | LAC
89
25.0
3. Nate McMillan | IND
54
10.0
4. Michael Malone | DEN
29
5.0
Others receiving votes: Kenny Atkinson, Brett Brown, Steve Clifford, Gregg Popovich and Nick Nurse
Who will win?
  • Mike Budenholzer: 75 percent
  • Doc Rivers: 12 percent
  • Michael Malone: 8 percent
  • Nate McMillan: 5 percent
SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR
Lou Williams is on track to win his third Sixth Man award -- as long as he can hold off his own teammate. Williams and Montrezl Harrell have sparked a surprising LA Clippers' season as an unstoppable bench duo, with Williams collecting most of the first-place votes here.
Domantas Sabonis, who essentially could not miss to start the season for the Indiana Pacers, joins the Clips in the top three.
Who Should Win?
PLAYER
POINTS
1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Lou Williams | LAC
142
60.0
2. Montrezl Harrell | LAC
72
17.5
3. Domantas Sabonis | IND
63
12.5
4. Spencer Dinwiddie | BKN
17
2.5
5. Julius Randle | NOP
11
0.0
6. Bogdan Bogdanovic | SAC
10
2.5
Others receiving votes: Malik BeasleyDavis BertansJaylen BrownMonte MorrisLarry Nance Jr.Derrick RoseDennis Schroder and Dwyane Wade
Who will win?
  • Lou Williams: 90 percent
  • Domantas Sabonis: 8 percent
  • Montrezl Harrell: 2 percent
MOST IMPROVED PLAYER
Kawhi Leonard is on pace to miss more than 20 games, yet the Toronto Raptors will likely finish with the second-best record in the NBA. Pascal Siakam is a big reason why. Once a defensive role player and promising sixth man, Siakam has flourished into a real offensive threat -- creating looks in transition and becoming a capable shooter from deep.
Breakout guards D'Angelo Russell and De'Aaron Fox are his main competition here.
Who Should Win?
PLAYER
POINTS
1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Pascal Siakam | TOR
148
62.5
2. D'Angelo Russell | BKN
67
10.0
3. De'Aaron Fox | SAC
54
10.0
4. Nikola Vucevic | ORL
15
7.5
T5. Paul George | OKC
13
2.5
T5. Domantas Sabonis | IND
13
0.0
Others receiving votes: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, John Collins, Montrezl Harrell, Tobias HarrisBuddy HieldZach LaVine and Derrick Rose
Who will win?
  • Pascal Siakam: 55 percent
  • D'Angelo Russell: 23 percent
  • De'Aaron Fox: 7 percent
DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Rudy Gobert is on track to win his second DPOY award in a row if he can fend off Paul George and Antetokounmpo.
Defensive impact is maybe the hardest quality to quantify. Still, Gobert has a strong case. He is comfortably No. 1 in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus (4.50), ahead of George and Antetokounmpo (tied for 19th at 2.85).
Who Should Win?
PLAYER
POINTS
1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Rudy Gobert | UTA
108
42.5
2. Paul George | OKC
87
27.5
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL
63
17.5
4. Joel Embiid | PHI
23
0.0
5. Myles Turner | IND
22
7.5
Others receiving votes: Isaiah BriscoeRobert CovingtonDraymond GreenAl Horford, Kawhi Leonard and Jusuf Nurkic
Who will win?
  • Rudy Gobert: 50 percent
  • Paul George: 25 percent
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: 18 percent
MOST VALUABLE PLAYER
In a close vote, our panel is taking Antetokounmpo over Harden. Interestingly, Antetokounmpo has a much more clear advantage in our panel's pick for who will win the awards, rather than who should.
So how is anyone really supposed to decide between these two great seasons? Five of our experts weigh in here.
Who Should Win?
PLAYER
POINTS
1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL
158
50
2. James Harden | HOU
151
45
3. Paul George | OKC
19
2.5
4. Stephen Curry | GSW
12
2.5
5. Nikola Jokic | DEN
5
0
Others receiving votes: Joel EmbiidKevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard and Karl-Anthony Towns
Who will win?
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo: 68 percent
  • James Harden: 32 percent
MORE: Giannis or Harden? The MVP question that's dividing the NBA

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