While the playoff has taken a
predictable path this fall, consider just how rare it is that No. 1 Alabama,
No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Notre Dame are entering rivalry week undefeated: It's
only the fourth time in the past 20 years that three Power 5 teams (or BCS
automatic qualifiers) have started 11-0.
Since the BCS was created in
1998, it has happened three other times, according to ESPN Stats &
Information research: in 2013 (Alabama, Florida State and Ohio State), 2009
(Alabama, Florida and Texas) and 2004 (Auburn, Oklahoma and USC).
That's it.
So here we are, with three
undefeated teams holding strong in the top four and only two weeks remaining
before the College
Football Playoff selection committee announces its final
rankings on Dec. 2. Can they all stay undefeated, and if not, then what?
Here's a look at the rivalry
games that will mean the most to the College Football Playoff, listed in order
of greatest potential impact to the committee's final rankings:
1. MICHIGAN AT OHIO STATE (SATURDAY, NOON ET, FOX)
If Michigan wins: It
would be the best result for the Big Ten, as the league's top-ranked team would
maintain its hold on the No. 4 spot heading into the conference championship
game against Northwestern. If the Wolverines win out, it would be much easier
for the selection committee to justify the Big Ten champion's spot in the
playoff because they have played better than Ohio State more consistently all
season. Michigan would have the edge over a one-loss Oklahoma team that wins
the Big 12 title and a one-loss Washington State, should the Cougars win the
Pac-12. Michigan might even be chosen over a one-loss Alabama team that loses
to Georgia in the SEC championship, though that would be an extremely difficult
decision.
Find out how every Power 5 team
stacks up against conference foes after 12 weeks of competition.
If Ohio State wins: There
are no guarantees, other than clinching the East Division title. It's possible
the Big Ten champion could be left out of the playoff a third straight year if
Ohio State wins, but the committee would have a difficult decision between the
Buckeyes and a one-loss Oklahoma team for the fourth spot. Both have struggled
defensively this year (OU is No. 95 in defensive efficiency, Ohio State is No. 46),
and yet both keep finding ways to win with talented quarterbacks. If Ohio State
beats Michigan, though, the committee would have to weigh that victory against
an Oklahoma win over West Virginia in Morgantown on Friday night. Ohio State
would probably have the edge, as the Mountaineers are now a two-loss team and
Michigan is a top-four, one-loss opponent. An Ohio State win could also impact
the SEC. Should Alabama lose to Georgia in the SEC championship, an Ohio State
win could increase the chances that both Alabama and Georgia finish in the top
four (again) at the expense of the Big Ten champion.
Rooting interests: If
you're an OU, SEC or Washington State fan, cheer for Ohio State to win ugly.
Notre Dame Fans, cheer for Michigan (the win that just keeps on giving).
2. OKLAHOMA AT WEST VIRGINIA (FRIDAY,
8 P.M. ET, ESPN)
If Oklahoma wins: The
Sooners would clinch a spot in the Big 12 conference championship and remain in
contention for a top-four finish. If they win on Friday night and Texas
beats Kansas, the Longhorns would clinch the other spot in the title game. The
Sooners would then have a chance to avenge their regular-season loss to the
Longhorns, which would be a strong statement to the selection committee. The
question is whether it would be enough to unseat the Big Ten champ for the
fourth spot.
If West Virginia wins: The
Mountaineers clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game, which means the league's
playoff hopes are likely over. A West Virginia win would guarantee the Big 12
champion has at least two losses -- maybe three, if Texas wins the title. Even
if Texas loses Saturday, if WVU loses and Iowa State wins, it will create a
three-way tie in the standings, and the Longhorns would win the tiebreaker and
clinch a spot in the title game.
Rooting interests: Washington
State fans should be cheering for the Mountaineers, as the Sooners are still
standing in their way in the CFP Top 25 heading into tonight's rankings. UCF
fans should be cheering for WVU, too, as it's another bit of chaos that could
work in their favor.
3. NOTRE DAME AT USC (SATURDAY,
8 P.M. ET, ABC)
If Notre Dame wins: The
Irish finish undefeated and lock up a spot in the top four, where they can sit comfortably
and watch how the conference championship games might change the rest of the
playoff picture. With Notre Dame in, at least two Power 5 conference champions
will be left out.
If USC wins: While it
would be an embarrassing loss for Notre Dame, don't discount a one-loss Irish
team until the rest of the conference championship games play out. If the Big
12 produces a two-loss champion, or there is an upset in the Big Ten or Pac-12
title games, a one-loss Notre Dame is certainly still in the mix. The Irish are
currently No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which means they have
played the most difficult schedule to date, knocking off two division champs in
Northwestern and Pitt and possibly a third if Michigan wins the Big Ten East.
If Northwestern and Michigan end up playing for the Big Ten championship, Notre
Dame would have defeated the league champ regardless.
Rooting interests: UCF
fans should cheer for USC (at the very least the Irish need to crash to start a
wave of chaos for the Knights to move up into consideration). Washington State
should cheer for USC because it needs as many dominoes to fall above it as
possible.
4. WASHINGTON AT WASHINGTON
STATE (FRIDAY, 8:30 P.M. ET, FOX)
If Washington wins: The
Huskies will win the Pac-12 North, but the conference will lose in the big
picture because the league is guaranteed to have a conference champion with
three losses. Utah and Washington have three losses each, so the winner of the
Pac-12 title would be eliminated.
If Washington State wins: The
Pac-12 keeps its slim playoff hopes alive, but Washington State must win the conference
championship and get some help. Even if Alabama and Clemson lose to their
rivals but win their respective conference titles, they're likely in ahead of
Washington State. A Notre Dame loss would certainly open the door for debate,
but a one-loss Big 12 champ in Oklahoma is more likely than Washington State to
benefit from the Irish losing because it punctuated its résumé with wins at
West Virginia and then likely against Texas. Washington State's best-case
scenario would be for Northwestern to win the Big Ten and for a two-loss team
to win the Big 12. The good news for the Cougars is that Washington and Utah
have both entered the committee's top 25, which gives their résumé a
much-needed boost.
Rooting interests: UCF
needs as much help as it can get, so the Knights should cheer for Washington to
eliminate the Pac-12 with a win. Ohio State fans should also cheer for
Washington ... juuuust in case they've got some competition down the stretch,
as right now they're still trailing the Cougars in the top 25.
5. AUBURN AT ALABAMA (SATURDAY,
3:30 P.M. ET, CBS)
If Auburn wins: Alabama
should still have no problem finishing in the top four -- as long as it wins
the SEC. If the Tide lose this game, though, the SEC's chances of getting two
teams into the playoff are likely over because the committee wouldn't take a
two-loss team this year that didn't win its league, even if it's Alabama.
If Alabama wins: The
Tide roll into the SEC championship undefeated, in the top four and with a
cushion to lose in the title game and possibly still get in.
Rooting interests: UCF,
Washington State, Ohio State and Oklahoma should all be rooting for Auburn. If
anyone else is going to have a chance to finish in the top four, the last thing
it needs is two SEC teams and Notre Dame.
6. GEORGIA TECH AT GEORGIA (SATURDAY,
NOON ET, SEC NETWORK)
If Georgia wins: The
Bulldogs stay status quo on the bubble, unless there is some chaos above them
during rivalry week (Michigan losing to Ohio State; Notre Dame losing at USC)
or they cause the chaos by beating Alabama in the SEC title game.
If Georgia Tech wins: If
Georgia loses to Georgia Tech, but beats Alabama to win the SEC title, it could
become the first two-loss team to finish in the top four in the playoff era. Or
... the SEC could be left out in favor of Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan and
Oklahoma. A Georgia Tech win would also entirely change the perception of an
Alabama loss to Georgia in the SEC championship, decreasing the chances that
the Tide sneaks in as the SEC runner-up. Its one thing to lose a close game to
the No. 5 team in the country, but Georgia wouldn't be ranked No. 5 heading
into the SEC championship game if it lost to an unranked, four-loss Georgia
Tech team.
Rooting interests: Anyone
with SEC fatigue should cheer for the upset, as its ripple effect could be
significant.
7. SOUTH
CAROLINA AT CLEMSON (SATURDAY,
7 P.M. ET, ESPN)
If South Carolina wins: Clemson
could still finish in the top four if it beats Pitt to win the ACC. If Alabama,
Notre Dame and Michigan all win out, Clemson would probably still be chosen
ahead of a one-loss Oklahoma and a one-loss Washington State. What would happen
in this scenario, though, if Alabama lost to a one-loss Georgia team? Georgia,
Notre Dame and Michigan would be in, and the debate would then shift to
one-loss SEC runner-up Alabama or one-loss ACC champion Clemson.
If Clemson wins: The
undefeated Tigers would coast into the ACC championship game and be one win
away from finishing in the top four.
Rooting interests: Anyone
who needs some chaos (UCF, Oklahoma and Washington State) should cheer for
South Carolina, though a loss on Saturday wouldn't guarantee anything more than
a debate between one-loss Power 5 champs.
8. UCF AT SOUTH FLORIDA (FRIDAY,
4:15 P.M. ET, ESPN)
If UCF wins: The
Knights have already clinched a berth in the American Athletic Conference
championship game and should remain the committee's highest-ranked Group of 5
team, positioned for a bid to a New Year's Six bowl. With UCF's win on Saturday
and West Virginia's loss, the Knights should join the top 10 Tuesday night, and
even possibly leapfrog Ohio State. Regardless of where they land in the
committee's fourth rankings, the Knights still have to play the winner of
Houston-Memphis on Friday, and need to win their conference in order to get to
a New Year's Six bowl. Remember, it's the highest-ranked conference champion
from the Group of 5. Even with another undefeated season and a conference
title, UCF would still need utter meltdowns in the Power 5 conference
championship games to be seriously considered for a top-four finish.
If South Florida wins: UCF
would still head to the American title game and have a shot at a New Year's Six
bowl, but with one-loss Utah State now in the rankings (and two-loss Boise
State), the American front-runners could have a little bit of competition if
they stumble. Utah State and Boise State also play each other Saturday, and the
winner will claim the Mountain Division in the MWC.
Rooting interests: Mountain
West fans should cheer for South Florida, but it would just be a first step in
evening the playing field a bit. Group of 5 fans in general might want to keep
rooting for UCF, if only to see how high the Knights can climb this year as
their representative.
No comments:
Post a Comment