WHAT HAS HAPPENED
TO MICHIGAN STATE?
In the span of 10 days, Michigan State has gone from
arguably the hottest team in the country to the biggest fall in the power
rankings. The Spartans lost their third game in a row on Tuesday night, this
time to an Illinois team that was 7-15 entering the night. That loss comes on
the heels of Saturday's home defeat to Indiana, which had lost seven games in a
row before facing the Spartans.
Michigan State has gone from squarely in the top tier of
national championship contenders to third place in the Big Ten and a long
distance from the 1-seed conversation.
So what's wrong? Most will point to the loss of Joshua
Langford, but that requires a deeper look. The numbers don't
necessarily back up that assertion. According to Bart Torvik's adjusted
efficiency ratings, Michigan State was +26.3 with Langford in the lineup and
+27.4 since Langford's injury. Here's the thing, though. When Langford first
got hurt, Kyle Ahrens stepped
into the lineup and performed admirably. Then freshman Aaron Henry did
the same when Ahrens missed time with an injury. Moreover, Nick Ward was
dominating on the inside, pushing for double-doubles on a nightly basis.
The supporting cast for Cassius
Winston has really struggled lately, though. Ahrens was 2-for-7
against Illinois and Henry played just 14 minutes. Ward didn't start Tuesday
and is now averaging just 10.3 points and 3.3 rebounds in his past three games.
Winston is therefore being forced to do too much, and he turned it over nine
times against the Illini.
The offense stagnated late in the game when they needed a
basket, and the defense didn't get stops either. In fact, the Spartans have now
allowed well more than one point per possession in three straight games --
after allowing just one opponent to reach that threshold since Dec. 3.
Tom Izzo has some things to work out if Michigan State is
going to get back in the title hunt.
For the most part, there has been a clear group of six teams
at the top of college basketball, and then everyone else. With Michigan and
Michigan State slipping, though, and Kentucky and North Carolina hitting their
stride, there now seems to be two groups of four at the top.
And it's that second group of four that has sparked the most
debate following the weekend. After Saturday's games, we went with Michigan
State at No. 5, followed by Michigan, Kentucky and then North Carolina. Let's
parse through the four teams and see if that needs changing moving forward.
Michigan State doesn't have the marquee wins of its fellow
contenders, especially outside the conference, but the Spartans do own a
handful of solid Big Ten wins -- including ones over Purdue and Maryland, and a
pair over Iowa. Their NET ranking dropped to 8 following Saturday, but they're
still in the top four at KenPom, BPI and Sagarin. Michigan State also has the
most Quadrant 1 wins of any team in the country, tied with Kansas at eight. The
Spartans are 12-4 against Quadrants 1 and 2. The loss Saturday at home to
Indiana drags them down a bit, though.
Michigan has three very good wins, having blown out North Carolina,
Purdue and Villanova in the first few weeks of the season. The Wolverines have
only two losses, and both came on the road against top-25 NET teams. Their
nonconference SOS is by far the worst of the quartet, though, and they rank No.
8 and No. 9 in Sagarin and BPI, respectively. That said, Michigan is an
impressive 11-2 against Quadrants 1 and 2 -- and the Wolverines have the
highest strength of record (SOR) and KPI of the four -- but they are also tied
with North Carolina for fewest Quadrant 1 wins (five) of the four teams.
Kentucky is on fire right now: The Wildcats have won eight
in a row, including a comeback victory at Florida on Saturday night. The
Wildcats have a host of impressive wins, including ones over North Carolina,
Louisville and Kansas, as well as a road victory at Auburn, and solid Strength
of Schedule (SOS) numbers. They do have a Quadrant 2 loss to Seton Hall on a
neutral court, and they're ranked between Nos. 7 and 9 in KenPom, Sagarin and
BPI. Kentucky has six Quadrant 1 wins and a 9-3 record against Quadrants 1 and
2.
North Carolina rounds out the group, and the Tar Heels are
in the same boat as Kentucky in terms of playing perhaps their best basketball
of the season right now. They've won five in a row and nine of their past 10.
Their NET is the lowest of the four teams, but they're in the top five in
Sagarin and ahead of Kentucky and Michigan in the BPI. Carolina has the best
schedule numbers of the four teams, and all four of the Heels' losses have come
against Quadrant 1 teams. However, they're just 5-4 against Quadrant 1
opponents. Their win over Gonzaga is their best, but they've also lost to two
of the other three teams in the discussion here.
After taking a closer look, we still feel pretty good about
the order coming out of Saturday night.
1. TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERS (21-1)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: Beat Missouri 72-60 on Tuesday, vs. Florida (Saturday, 4
p.m. ET)
It wasn't Tennessee's best performance of the season, but
the Volunteers still cruised to victory over Missouri. One noteworthy aspect of
the game was Admiral
Schofield going 3-for-5 from 3-point range. The powerful
forward had been in a slump from the perimeter lately, shooting just 3-for-22
from behind the arc over his past five games. It will be a boost if he can get
his shot back.
2. DUKE BLUE
DEVILS (20-2)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: Beat Boston College 80-55 on Tuesday, at Virginia
(Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Coming Saturday: Duke vs. Virginia, Round 2. This time
around, the Blue Devils will have Tre Jones,
who had one of the best individual defensive performances of the season over
the weekend against St. John's guard Shamorie
Ponds. Jones shut out Ponds in the first half and limited him to 11
points on 11 shots, along with five turnovers.
3. VIRGINIA
CAVALIERS (19-1)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: vs. Duke (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Tony Bennett's team now gets a full week to rest before
hosting Duke and then traveling to North Carolina two days later. Those games
will shape the ACC race. In the first meeting against Duke, the Cavaliers had
their second-worst defensive effort of the season and shot just 3-for-17 from
3-point range -- their worst shooting performance.
4. GONZAGA
BULLDOGS (21-2)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: vs. San Francisco (Thursday, 9 p.m. ET), vs. Saint
Mary's (Saturday, 10 p.m. ET)
This is arguably Gonzaga's most difficult week of their West
Coast Conference schedule, as the Bulldogs host both San Francisco and Saint
Mary's. The Dons gave the Bulldogs a run in the first meeting between the two
teams, but they have now lost two in a row. The Gaels aren't their usual
selves, but they have victories over San Francisco and New Mexico State this
season.
5. MICHIGAN
WOLVERINES (21-2)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: Beat Rutgers 77-65 on Tuesday, vs. Wisconsin (Saturday,
noon ET on Fox)
6. KENTUCKY
WILDCATS (19-3)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: Beat South Carolina 76-48 on Tuesday, at Mississippi
State (Saturday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS)
7. NORTH
CAROLINA TAR HEELS (18-4)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: vs. Beat NC State 113-96 on Tuesday, vs. Miami
(Saturday, noon ET on ACC Network/WatchESPN)
North Carolina went out and dropped 113 points against NC
State on Tuesday night, hitting triple digits for the second time in four
games. The Tar Heels got 31 points and 12 rebounds from Luke Maye to
lead the way and were able to get out in transition for several easy baskets.
Giving up 96 points won't look good on paper, but Roy Williams will take the
17-point win.
8. NEVADA WOLF
PACK (21-1)
Previous ranking: 9
This week: at Colorado State (Wednesday, 10 p.m. ET on CBSSN), vs.
New Mexico (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET on CBSSN)
9. HOUSTON
COUGARS (21-1)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: at UCF (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET on CBSSN), vs. Cincinnati
(Sunday, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Houston has just one blemish so far, but the Cougars now
begin their toughest week of the season. They have to travel to UCF on
Thursday, followed by a home game against Cincinnati. UCF was the preseason
favorite in the AAC but hasn't quite lived up to that expectation. Cincinnati
has won seven in a row and has shown some of the best offense we've seen under
Mick Cronin.
10. MICHIGAN
STATE SPARTANS (18-5)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: Lost to Illinois 79-74 on Tuesday, vs. Minnesota
(Saturday, 2 p.m. ET)
That's now three losses in a row for the Spartans, and they
have dropped to third in the Big Ten standings. They do return home for three
of their next four games, but there's a road trip to Wisconsin next week.
Without Joshua
Langford to provide consistent scoring on the wing, though, the
Spartans might not have enough punch on the offensive end.
11. LOUISVILLE
CARDINALS (17-6)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Beat Virginia Tech 72-64 on Monday, at Florida State
(Saturday, 4 p.m. ET)
Louisville is going to have a heck of a profile on Selection
Sunday. The Cardinals now own road wins over North Carolina and Virginia Tech
and a home victory over Michigan State. They were excellent offensively Monday
against the Hokies, making 13 3-pointers -- their third game in a row knocking
down double-digit triples -- and getting double digits off the bench from Steven Enochand Ryan McMahon.
12. KANSAS
JAYHAWKS (17-6)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: Lost to Kansas State 74-67 on Tuesday, vs. Oklahoma
State (Saturday, noon ET)
So this Big 12 race might actually be a thing. After Kansas
lost the Sunflower Showdown on Tuesday night, Kansas State is now atop the Big
12 standings by itself -- and Kansas sits in fourth place. It seemed like the
Jayhawks might have solved their scoring issues against Texas Tech on Saturday,
but they went 7-for-20 from 3-point range against Kansas State and Dedric Lawson once
again didn't get enough help. By the way, Kansas is now 1-6 in true road games.
13. MARQUETTE
GOLDEN EAGLES (19-4)
Previous ranking: 12 This week: Lost to St. John's 70-69 on Tuesday, vs. Villanova (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET on Fox)
Previous ranking: 12 This week: Lost to St. John's 70-69 on Tuesday, vs. Villanova (Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET on Fox)
This week could have been the chance for Marquette to
solidify its standing in the bracket and also take over the top of the Big East
standings, but the Golden Eagles saw their eight-game winning streak end with
another loss to St. John's. Marquette has now lost two games since Nov. 21,
with both coming to the Red Storm. Villanova comes to town Saturday.
14. PURDUE
BOILERMAKERS (15-6)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: vs. Nebraska (Saturday, 8:30 p.m. ET on BTN)
Purdue needed another comeback Sunday to win, but the
Boilermakers have now rattled off seven consecutive victories following a 9-6
start to the season. Freshman Trevion
Williams has added a nice dimension down low for Purdue, hitting
double figures in four of his past six games after not playing much of a role
for the first half of the season. Williams had 16 points and four boards
Sunday.
15. IOWA STATE
CYCLONES (17-5)
Previous ranking: 16
This week: Beat Oklahoma 75-74 on Monday, vs. TCU (Saturday, 2 p.m.
ET)
16. VIRGINIA TECH
HOKIES (18-4)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: Lost to Louisville 72-64 on Monday, at Clemson
(Saturday, noon ET)
The Hokies' inability to limit teams from the perimeter has
been costly multiple times in the past few weeks, with Virginia, North Carolina
and Louisville all hitting at least 13 3-pointers in their respective victories
over Tech. The Hokies are ranked No. 18 nationally in adjusted defensive
efficiency, but that number has fallen off a cliff in conference play. They're
just ninth in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference games.
Dropped out: None
No comments:
Post a Comment