Every year, the NCAA
tournament bracket is revealed while all of us bloviating
gasbags are on the Bracketology set and, having been on the air when the
bracket is revealed, we are handed the matchups and asked to analyze them with
very little advance notice.
Truthfully, we have no advance notice. We are being asked to
talk intelligently about snubs, seedings and matchups for the bracket-filling
public to analyze and enjoy, while at the same time our great crew and
unreasonable bosses are asking us to fill out a makeshift bracket so our
"picks" can be revealed before the end of the Bracketology show. We
do this because our bosses believe that you, the unwashed masses, hang on our
every ego-filled assessment of the teams and matchups to fill out your brackets
and win countless dollars in your illegal, yet glorious, office pool.
That got me thinking ... which is a dangerous thing. What if
I was allowed more than five minutes to make these decisions and could actually
think about it? How brilliant would my picks be? The answer is below, and it is
quite impressive, indeed. In fact, it is spectacular. This is your ticket to
winning every office pool and bracket challenge known to humankind. Or you can
let your 6-year-old child make your picks. Same difference. As always, you're
welcome.
EAST
REGION (WASHINGTON)
FIRST ROUND
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 16 North Carolina Central: No
16-seed is beating Zion
Williamson. No way. Let's move on. Duke should be in the next round
in every bracket sheet in the country.
No. 8 VCU vs. No. 9 UCF: UCF is one of the most
intriguing teams in the country. With outstanding guards B.J. Taylor,
who lives at the foul line, and Aubrey
Dawkins, the Knights play excellent defense, get to the foul line
and knock in free throws at a high rate, attempting 25 per game, ninth in
Division I. The difference-maker is 7-foot-6 center Tacko Fall,
a defensive nightmare who can dunk without jumping. Fall has been more
aggressive in the latter half of the season, and has been difficult to deal
with for opponents looking to attack the paint. UCF holds opponents to 45
percent effective field goal percentage, 13th in Division I. VCU is a great
defensive team that will press, run and jump, and created chaos in the manner
that was more prevalent under Shaka Smart. VCU forces a turnover on 23 percent
of its defensive possessions, 11th in Division I. Mike Rhoades will play
pack-line defense in the half court but get after you in the full court. VCU is
led by Marcus Evans,
the Rice transfer, Marcus
Santos-Silva, a 6-7 sophomore who has a high motor, runs the floor,
rebounds and can score at the rim. Santos-Silva is a junkyard dog. This game is
a coin flip, and UCF should win by slowing the game down and making it a
slugfest.
No. 5 Mississippi State vs. No. 12 Liberty: Liberty beat UCLA
earlier this season, along with Kent State and Lipscomb. The Flames are solid
on the offensive end and play a pack-line defense that limits transition,
allowing less than 10 transition points again. Liberty can struggle on the
glass, but the Flames control tempo, shot-makers and playmakers. Mississippi
State is probably seeded a bit too high, but the Bulldogs have a real
chance. Quinndary
Weatherspoon, who averages 18.6 points per game, and Lamar Peters form
one of the school's best backcourts. Mississippi State is one of the premier
offensive rebounding teams in the SEC. Expect the Bulldogs to prevail and move
on after beating Liberty.
No. 4 Virginia Tech vs. No. 13 Saint Louis: The Hokies are an
excellent offensive team and a vastly improved defensive team. With Justin
Robinson back, there is now a distributor to get the ball to Ty Outlaw, Ahmed Hill, Nickeil
Alexander-Walker and Kerry
Blackshear. The first three are shooters and scorers, but Blackshear
is one of the best big men in the ACC and one of the best interior passers in
the nation. Saint Louis was a surprise winner in the Atlantic 10 tournament,
and is led by former Michigan State star Javon Bess.
Virginia Tech was a top-10 team with Robinson, and beat a Zion-less Duke without
him. Virginia Tech should beat Saint Louis and move forward to face Mississippi
State.
No. 6 Maryland vs. No. 11 Belmont: Maryland has had a
really good year, and Anthony Cowan is
a super quick point guard who has been a reliable scorer. Bruno
Fernando helps Cowan form a formidable inside-out combination.
But Maryland is going up against Belmont, one of the controversial at-large selections.
Belmont is a great passing team led by Dylan Windler,
a future pro. Belmont leads the nation in assists and runs great offensive
actions that Maryland will find hard to guard. Belmont will pull the upset and
move forward.
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 14 Yale: LSU is an athletic and
talented group that has been through a lot of uncertainty over the past
year. Tremont
Waters is one of the best smaller guards in the country,
and Naz Reid is
an outstanding freshman big guy who was the only real offensive production
against Florida in the SEC tournament. LSU is a good offensive rebounding team
that scores in the paint at a clip of 38.6 points per game. Yale is a fine
basketball team that is led by Miye Oni,
a future NBA pro, and Alex Copeland.
Despite the fact that Yale beat Baylor a few years ago, LSU should win this
one.
No. 7 Louisville vs. No. 10 Minnesota: The Committee has a
sense of humor, but should have found a way to avoid this. Chris Mack has done
a nice job at Louisville and didn't deserve this, nor did Richard Pitino.
Louisville is led by Jordan Nwora,
a 6-7 wing who leads the Cardinals in scoring, rebounding and steals. Samford
transfer point guard Christen
Cunningham led the ACC in assists in conference play. Minnesota
has been inconsistent, but Amir Coffey
and Jordan Murphy are
very good, and Murphy is one of the best rebounders I have ever seen. (He is
the school's all-time rebounding leader.) Louisville will win this game and
move forward to the second round.
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Bradley: The Spartans have had
injuries and difficulties throughout the season, yet Tom Izzo guided this team
to a Big Ten title and a Big Ten Tournament title. The reward for that? Being
in the same bracket as the No. 1 overall seed, Duke. That was a selection
committee screw-up, plain and simple. Michigan State is led by conference
Player of the Year Cassius
Winston; his backcourt partner, Matt McQuaid,
scored 27 points against Michigan in the Big Ten final. Bradley is a good
defensive team that can struggle to score. The Braves are in the bottom third
of Division I in offensive efficiency and have a 19 percent turnover
rate. Darrell Brown is
a good passer and has hit 43 percent of his 3-point shots. Michigan State is
primed for a run in the NCAA tournament. Take the Spartans to move on.
SECOND ROUND
Duke vs. UCF: Coach K and Johnny Dawkins going
head-to-head in the tournament is another quirk of the committee and shows it
has a sense of humor. Without Dawkins, there may be no Coach K at Duke:
Dawkins' first trip to the NCAA tournament as a player was Krzyzewski's first
as a coach. It should be fun to watch Zion go up against Fall. Duke will win
the game and move on to the Sweet 16.
Mississippi State vs. Virginia Tech: The Hokies
are a far better offensive team, and with a healthy Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech
will move forward, beating Mississippi State to reach the Sweet 16.
LSU vs. Belmont: The skill and passing of
Belmont will overtake the athleticism and talent of LSU. The Bruins move
forward to the Sweet 16.
Michigan State vs. Louisville: These two teams
played in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, and Louisville won. In the rematch,
Michigan State will get on the glass, keep Nwora in check and move on into the
Sweet 16.
SWEET 16
Duke vs. Virginia Tech: In a rematch of a game
Virginia Tech won in February, Duke will run past the Hokies. With
Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones,
Duke has the most accomplished freshman class in ACC history. Duke wins and
moves on to the Elite Eight.
Michigan State vs. Belmont: This is where it
ends for Belmont. Michigan State wins, although Belmont will make it close.
ELITE EIGHT
Duke vs. Michigan State: The Spartans can beat
Duke, but unless the Blue Devils have a horrible shooting night, Zion and
Barrett bring home a Final Four.
WEST
REGION (ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA)
FIRST ROUND
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson: Let's
dispense with this quickly. Since 1985, only one 16-seed has ever beaten a
1-seed. Granted, it was last year, but it is unlikely to ever happen again.
Plus, even if the unthinkable happens, the 16-seed is even more unlikely to
follow up that upset and win again. Therefore, it is folly to select this game
as an upset pick. Take Gonzaga and move on. The Bulldogs are better, by far.
You can take the under, but take Gonzaga to win.
No. 8 Syracuse vs. No. 9 Baylor: The Orange have a
defense that is among the top 25 in the nation in adjusted efficiency, which
means Syracuse is difficult to score on. Syracuse holds opponents to 39 percent
from the floor. This is a difficult team to prepare for: In a tournament, the
Orange are usually tougher to handle than in the regular season, when you have
more time. Syracuse is always playing against your second-best offense -- its
opponents practice far less against the zone than they do their man-to-man
offenses. Tyus Battle is
the leading scorer and is coming back from an injury that caused him to miss
the ACC tournament. Battle averages more than 17 points per game and makes more
tough shots than any player in the ACC. Baylor has exceeded expectations all
season, led by former Yale star Makai Mason.
The Bears can give you multiple defensive looks, they are tough to prepare for
and they rebound very well on offense. If Baylor is to win, the offensive glass
will be the difference: The Bears grab over 38 percent of their own misses,
fourth in Division I, and scored 14 points per game off those offensive
rebounds. That can be a debilitating thing for the Syracuse zone. Syracuse
wins, but it will be close.
No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Murray State: Marquette has three scorers
who are absolutely fearless. Markus Howard is
the 2019 equivalent of Trae Young and
can get you 50 in a game. Sam Hauser and
younger brother Joey Hauser also
are fearless scorers and shooters who helped Marquette hit more than 39 percent
of its 3-point attempts, ninth in Division I. The only problem for Marquette,
an improved defensive team, is turnovers. But if Howard is healthy, he can
carry a team to a win against almost anybody. Yet Howard will not be the most
electric player on the floor: That honor goes to Murray State's Ja Morant,
the Russell
Westbrook of the college game. This dude is beyond legit. He is
breathtaking in his ability to score and levitate around the rim. Morant led
the nation in assists and scores with ease over people. Murray State scores 24
points per game in transition, which is third in Division I. Plus; the Racers
defend the 3-point line very well, which is a must against Marquette. Morant
averages 24 points and 10 assists, but he is not alone. Shaq Buchanan is
the second-leading scorer on the roster, and Tevin Brown has
made more than 80 3-point field goals. It is hard to bet a lottery pick, but
Marquette should do it. The only caveat is the health of Howard's wrist. If
it's good, Marquette ends Morant's ride. Take Marquette in this one.
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 13 Vermont: The Seminoles are big, athletic
and deep. If Florida State had a new nickname, it would be the "No Name
Offense." No Seminoles made the All-ACC team, even though this is the winningest
team in school history. Florida State has been stifling on the defensive end,
to the point of dominating. Mfiondu
Kabengele is the sixth man and best player, and Terance Mann is
among the winningest players in Florida State history. The Seminoles turn the
ball over too much but won 13 ACC games and have victories over Virginia,
Purdue, LSU and Florida. Vermont is athletic and physical, and can hang with
the big shots. Anthony Lamb is
a big-time scorer who can post or play on the perimeter, and he averages 22
points per game. Lamb is a complete player who has played and thrived in tough
environments. If Florida State does not show up for a fight, Vermont can win --
but I think Florida State will show up for a fight and win.
No. 6 Buffalo vs. No. 11 Arizona State: Buffalo is legit. Nate Oats
was hired by Bobby Hurley after being a high school coach and math teacher in
Michigan and Oats has taken Buffalo to even greater heights. The truth is
Buffalo is better than Arizona State. The Bulls have a great culture and tough players.
Buffalo has blue-collar points, and the prize is a construction helmet. Oats
often asks his players: Which teams ranked above Buffalo recruited them or even
gave them a look? Buffalo gives maximum effort and shows tremendous
fight. CJ Massinburg has
had a triple-double, 43 points against West Virginia and 25 points against
Syracuse. He is an excellent 3-point shooter and a really good guard rebounder.
His running mate is Jeremy Harris,
a terrific lefty who went to Page High School in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Harris had 23 points against Arizona last season. Nick Perkins is
the sixth man and is an absolute load who provides firepower off the pine.
Perkins played for Oats in high school. Arizona State is athletic and a good
offensive-rebounding team led by a freshman from Canada, Luguentz Dort,
and San Diego State transfer Zylan
Cheatham, who had a triple-double earlier this season. Arizona State
has terrific athleticism, and Remy Martin is
the heart and soul of the team. The Sun Devils are good and will beat St.
John's in Dayton. But Buffalo is better and will move forward.
No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 14 Northern Kentucky: Northern Kentucky is
from the Horizon League and is a very good 3-point-shooting team. Drew McDonald averages
19 points per game and is a difficult matchup for anyone. The Norse look to
push the ball up court and get a good, open 3-point shot. But Northern Kentucky
will get one of the best defensive teams in the country in Texas Tech. The Red
Raiders are led by a truly great player, Jarrett
Culver, who is an excellent athlete and very skilled. Texas Tech
allows only 21 paint points per game, second-fewest in Division I. And the Red
Raiders force a turnover on 23 percent of their defensive possessions, 15th in
Division I. Offense has been a problem for Texas Tech, but the development of Davide
Moretti has been an important factor in generating points, and
his improvement has made the team much better. Expect Texas Tech to win and
move on.
No. 7 Nevada vs. No. 10 Florida: The seeds on this game
seem flipped. Nevada is the better, older team with an average age of 23.
Florida is the young, inconsistent team that has a freshman point guard and a
freshman wing who led the way in the SEC tournament. Florida forces a turnover
on 23 percent of opponents' possessions, 13th in Division I. The Gators also
defend the 3-point line very well. Jalen Hudson and KeVaughn
Allen need to take over in order for Florida to win. Nevada is
a terrific team that has experienced success in the NCAA tournament, beating
Cincinnati last season. Nevada has high-level transfers, led by Jordan
Caroline, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin and Jazz Johnson,
all of whom can really play. The Wolf Pack takes care of the ball and competes
on every play. Florida has been up and down, and Nevada expects to win. Nevada
winning this game is still an upset, even though it is the better seed. Take
the Wolf Pack to win this one.
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 15 Montana: The Wolverines are
among the best defensive teams in the nation and should get past Montana with
relative ease. Michigan is holding opponents to 44 percent effective field goal
percentage, ninth in Division I. Plus; Michigan only turns the ball over on 13
percent of its possessions and allows only 7.2 transition points per game. This
team is stingy on the defensive end. That will be enough to beat Montana, which
is also a very good defensive team, led by Ahmaad Rorie.
Take the Wolverines to move forward.
SECOND ROUND
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse: The Orange are difficult to
prepare for in a short window. But Josh Perkins and Zach Norvell
Jr. form a truly outstanding backcourt that can shoot; Corey Kispert and Killian
Tillie can knock in perimeter shots; and Brandon
Clarke and Rui Hachimura can
operate in the middle of the zone. This is a tough second-round game for any
No. 1 seed, but I expect Gonzaga to find a way to solve Jim Boeheim's puzzle
and win.
Marquette vs. Florida State: Marquette can score and
spread the floor like few other teams Florida State will play. But the
Seminoles are so big, athletic and defensively oriented that I believe Florida
State will squeak past the Big East's best-shooting team.
Buffalo vs. Texas Tech: Texas Tech is better
defensively and improved in the scoring department. But there is something
about this Buffalo team. The Bulls are tough, and I believe a worthwhile 6-seed
to take over a very capable 3-seed in Texas Tech. Take Buffalo to win.
Nevada vs. Michigan: Nevada is just as capable as
Buffalo, but has a tough draw. Michigan is so good defensively and has a
difficult big man to deal with, Jon Teske,
who can screen, roll hard and knock in the occasional 3, stretching the floor.
Michigan wins and will head to the Sweet 16 again in 2019.
SWEET 16
Gonzaga vs. Florida State: This is the type of
game that can cause Gonzaga trouble, going against the bigger, deeper and more
athletic major conference team. But since Gonzaga is the only team to beat Duke
at full strength, I favor Gonzaga to win this game and advance to the Elite
Eight.
Buffalo vs. Michigan: Michigan is too good
defensively to drop a game to Buffalo. The only way it happens is if Buffalo
goes crazy from the 3-point line and piles up a bunch of points before Michigan
can set its defense. I like the Wolverines to move on and reach the Elite
Eight.
ELITE EIGHT
Gonzaga vs. Michigan: A bit chalky, I admit. But the
Wolverines were among the favorites to win the whole thing. Gonzaga has proven
to be among the best offensive teams in the country. This will be a great game,
if it happens. And it will happen. Michigan will win and move on to the Final
Four.
SOUTH
REGION (LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY)
FIRST ROUND
No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 16 Gardner-Webb: Virginia has had
another fabulous season, losing only to Duke and Florida State. But the only
way for Virginia to shut up the naysayers is to reach a Final Four under Tony
Bennett. I think this could be the year. Virginia shoots the ball very well,
with Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, De'Andre
Hunter and Jay Huff all
shooting well over 40 percent from deep. As a team, the Cavaliers shoot over 41
percent from deep, which is third in Division I. Hunter is a lottery pick who
can guard anybody on the floor, and Guy and Jerome are fearless shooters.
Virginia is still very stingy on the defensive end. Gardner-Webb is not going
to pull a UMBC on Virginia -- the Cavaliers will play well in this game and
move forward.
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Oklahoma: Oklahoma is a solid
defensive team led by Christian
James and Brady Manek.
The Sooners play good defense without fouling. Ole Miss has excellent guards
who help force a turnover on 21 percent of opponents' possessions. Breein Tyree and Terence Davis lead
the way for Kermit Davis, and should lead the way to a first-round win over
Oklahoma. Move Ole Miss into the next round to meet Virginia.
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Oregon: Oregon was going to be
left out of the field before beating Washington in the Pac-12 tournament, yet
the Ducks are an excellent defensive team that can extend and guard out on the
floor and control the tempo of a game. Payton
Pritchard has been the team leader, while Louis King has
led the team in scoring. Wisconsin is another good defensive team, holding
opponents to a 44 effective field goal percentage (fifth in Division I). D'Mitrik
Trice is a former quarterback who has been a field general for
Greg Gard, and Ethan Happ is
a superstar with the best footwork of any big man in the country. Happ can do
it all except shoot. He is a winner. Boosted by their defense, the Ducks should
move forward to play Kansas State. To quote Bill Walton, "Quack,
quack."
No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 13 UC Irvine: UC Irvine is a good
team that has won a ton of games this year, due mostly to defense. The
Anteaters held opponents to just 43 percent shooting from the field this season
(fourth in Division I). Coach Russell Turner has done a fabulous job with this
program. Max Hazzard is
a very good guard who was a sixth man last season. Kansas State tied for the
Big 12 regular-season title with Texas Tech and has been one of the stingiest
defensive teams in the country. The Wildcats allowed only 7.2 second-chance
points per game, second fewest among major conference teams. Barry Brown takes
on the opposition's best wing and Dean Wade,
when healthy, is one of the best passing big guys in the country. UC Irvine can
beat Kansas State, but the Wildcats should move forward.
No. 6 Villanova vs. No. 11 Saint Mary's: Jay Wright has
done a great job with the Wildcats, continuing to teach the young guys
while Phil Booth, Eric Paschall and Collin
Gillespie lead the way. Jermaine
Samuels and Saddiq Bey
have come along, and were big parts of Villanova's Big East regular-season and
tournament titles. Saint Mary's plays a slow-tempo game, much like Villanova,
and is a good offensive team. The Gaels own a top-25 offense, but the Wildcats
are a better team and should move forward.
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Old Dominion: Purdue can score
efficiently and Matt Painter's team runs really good stuff. The Boilermakers
are efficient and do not turn the ball over. Old Dominion is a chest-to-chest
defensive team that is led by B.J. Stith and Ahmad Caver.
Stith transferred to Old Dominion from Virginia and Caver is one of the top
mid-major point guards, averaging 17 points and 6 assists. Caver is a very good
defender and leader, and Stith is a good shooter who is also an automatic free
throw shooter. As good as Old Dominion is on defense, Purdue is better on
offense. Carsen
Edwards, one of the nation's best scorers, will help Purdue reach
the second round.
No. 7 Cincinnati vs. No. 10 Iowa: Cincinnati defends and
rebounds on the offensive end, and Jarron
Cumberland is the top scorer, rebounder and leader on the
Bearcats' roster. Iowa has won some improbable games because of the heroics
of Jordan
Bohannon and Tyler Cook.
Iowa changes defenses and disrupts with different looks. Cincinnati could have
a problem with that, but Mick Cronin always seems to get his team playing well
in first-round games. The Bearcats should move forward.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Colgate: Colgate is a solid
offensive team that scores efficiently and shoots well but doesn't take care of
the ball as well as it needs to in order to beat a team like Tennessee. The
Vols are deep and tight, with the SEC Player of the Year in Grant
Williams, Admiral
Schofield and the best point guard in the SEC, Jordan Bone.
Tennessee is the best passing team in the SEC and scores 36 points per game in
the paint, (third among major conference teams). The Vols will move on.
SECOND ROUND
Virginia vs. Ole Miss: The Cavaliers are too good on
both ends. Virginia moves into the Sweet 16.
Oregon vs. Kansas State: The Ducks are a much better
team now than two months ago, but so is Kansas State. The Wildcats advance.
Villanova vs. Purdue: Purdue scores the ball easier
than Villanova, but the Wildcats are a better defensive team. Villanova moves
on.
Cincinnati vs. Tennessee: The Vols score easier than
Cincinnati. Jordan Bowden is
the best sixth man in the SEC, and Tennessee will move on a after a hell aqueously
tough game with the Bearcats.
Sweet 16
Tennessee vs. Villanova: Tennessee wins, moves to the
Elite Eight.
Virginia vs. Kansas State: Virginia is too good for
Kansas State and moves on.
ELITE EIGHT
Virginia vs. Tennessee: This is Virginia's year. All
of last season's demons are gone, and the Cavaliers are going to Minneapolis.
MIDWEST
REGION (KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI)
FIRST ROUND
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 16 Iona: The Tar Heels
will not be the second team to lose to a 16-seed. Iona, which has won the MAAC
tournament four straight years, is led by Ricky McGill and E.J. Crawford.
McGill has been to four straight NCAA tournaments at Iona. The Gaels run, but
they will be run over by North Carolina.
No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 Washington: Utah State is
one of the better passing teams in the nation but not one of the better
defensive teams. The Aggies will have to outscore Washington, which can be a
challenge against the zone. Sam Merrill is
a complete player who averages over 20 points per game, and Neemias Queta is
a long-armed and very talented young shot-blocker and rebounder. Add in Diogo Brito,
a versatile and tough wing who can shoot and defend multiple spots, and Quinn Taylor,
a skilled senior who knows how to play and is a very good passer, and you have
a legit team that can make plays against an unconventional defense. Utah State
beat Saint Mary's, UC Irvine and Nevada this season, and it is good on the
offensive glass but not great at shooting. Washington is an interesting group.
Talented, with a defender capable of being National Defensive Player of the
Year in Matisse
Thybulle, the Huskies will have to play their best game to win this
one. Take Utah State.
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State: This is a
great game. Auburn has excellent guards in Jared Harper and Bryce Brown,
and a corps of terrific perimeter shooters. The Tigers force a turnover on 25
percent of their opponents' possessions, third in Division I. New Mexico State
has won 30 games and has great depth. The Aggies outrebound opponents by more
than nine rebounds per game, third in Division I, and allow only 8.3 transition
points on average. New Mexico State plays 10 guys and leads the nation in bench
minutes. Still, as dangerous as the Aggies are, the Tigers should win and move
forward. Bruce Pearl will have Auburn prepared.
No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Northeastern: Kansas' résumé
has the Jayhawks among the top 16 teams in the country. I am not sure they will
be able to reach the destination of the Final Four, or even the second weekend.
Kansas defends well but does not score as easily as it has in the past. If KU
had Udoka
Azubuike and Lagerald Vick,
this would be a Final Four team. Without those guys, this team is young and
thin. Dedric Lawson is
one of the best and most efficient big men in the nation, and he will be on NBA
scouts' radar. Lawson knows how to play. Northeastern will be a handful. Bill
Coen has five starters back from a team that should have gotten to the NCAA
tournament last year but lost a big lead to Charleston. Vasa Pusica averages
17.8 points and is one of the most competitive guards in the country. Pusica
always seems to rise to the occasion, scoring 30 points in last year's Colonial
title game and 21 points in this year's title game. Northeastern is a terrific
offensive team with a dynamic backcourt of Pusica and Jordan Roland,
but Kansas should still win. Move the Jayhawks forward.
No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Ohio State: Ohio State is
healthy and at full strength now. The Buckeyes are a solid defensive team and
passing team, but can struggle to score at times, and struggle to protect the
rim. Kaleb Wesson is
a load in the paint, and C.J. Jackson handles
the ball and is the second-leading scorer. Iowa State is not stellar on
defense, but the Cyclones can score. Marial Shayok averaged
eight points per game at Virginia but averages almost 19 points at Iowa
State. Nick
Weiler-Babb is averaging over 13 points and is among a group of
playmaking guards who can be really hard to guard. Ohio State is formidable.
But the Cyclones move on.
No. 3 Houston vs. No. 14 Georgia State: Houston is an
amazing success story, and Kelvin Sampson has done a remarkable job with this
program, making it relevant again. Corey Davis
Jr. and Armoni Brooks constitute
an excellent backcourt, and Houston can defend and rebound with anybody. The
Cougars are undersized, but tough and gritty. Georgia State plays a matchup
zone defense, and it can change throughout a possession. It is tough to prepare
for the Panthers, and both of these teams make 3-point field goals at a high
rate. Georgia State struggles to rebound. The Cougars are the better team and
will advance.
No. 7 Wofford vs. No. 10 Seton Hall: Wofford is
legit, and it earned the highest seed ever given to a Southern Conference team.
It did not lose a conference game this season and won at North Carolina last
season. Carolina returned the game this year and bested Wofford. The Terriers
are led by a truly great shooter and scorer in Fletcher
Magee, who is three 3-pointers from breaking the all-time 3-point
shooting record held by Travis Bader of Oakland. Magee is not Wofford's lone
threat, as Nathan Hoover and Storm Murphy can
connect from outside and Cameron
Jackson, a 6-foot-8 senior big man who was All-SoCon, can score,
rebound and block shots. Wofford is an outstanding shooting team that hits
almost 42 percent from behind the arc, and four Terriers have hit over 40
3-point shots on the season. Seton Hall has had a good season that is turning
into a great year because of the stellar play of Myles Powell,
who averages over 22 points per game. Myles Cale averages
10 points, and the Pirates attack the paint all game long, scoring almost 35
points on average in that area. This game is almost seeded backward, because it
is still an upset if Wofford wins it. Take the upset: Wofford will win.
No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 Abilene Christian: Abilene
Christian is good on defense, forcing turnovers and not allowing transition
opportunities. But these Wildcats have not played the Kentucky Wildcats. Jaren Lewis and Payten Ricks
lead the team in scoring, but you can expect Kentucky to overwhelm Abilene
Christian in its first game ever in the NCAA tournament.
SECOND ROUND
North Carolina vs. Utah State: The Tar Heels will
run, rebound and wear out the Aggies. Queta can hang with Carolina, but he
might be breathing hard at the end of the game after running so much. Expect
Carolina to move to the second weekend.
Auburn vs. Kansas: This is where it ends for a
depleted Kansas team. This group has worked hard for Bill Self and done some
amazing things. Still, the Jayhawks' roster was too thin to win the Big 12
title. Auburn will win this game.
Iowa State vs. Houston: The Cyclones can really
score. Behind Shayok and Lindell
Wigginton, Iowa State has offensive skill, talent and firepower.
Houston is the better defensive team and rebounding team. The question is which
team will dominate with its best attributes? My guess is that the Cyclones will
be able to score enough points to win but the Cougars can make it a slower,
half-court pace. I like Houston to win.
Wofford vs. Kentucky: Wofford can shoot it, but
Kentucky can guard well and should impose its will against a team that could be
the tournament darling .P.J. Washington has become one of the best and
most dynamic big men in the country since January. Ashton Hagans is
one of the best defenders in the country; Tyler Herro can
shoot it; and Keldon
Johnson is a lottery pick. Kentucky will end the Wofford ride.
SWEET 16
North Carolina vs. Auburn: This will be a fast-paced
game, even faster than the game Auburn won against Tennessee in the SEC
tournament. North Carolina thrives in a full-court transition game, and Coby White and Cameron
Johnson will score for the Tar Heels, while Kenny
Williams will likely guard Fletcher Magee. North Carolina will
win this one, but only if the Tar Heels guard the 3-point line.
Houston vs. Kentucky: Kentucky has too much talent
for Houston, and too much depth. I expect Kentucky to win this game and move on
to the Elite Eight.
ELITE EIGHT
North Carolina vs. Kentucky: These teams played
earlier this season, and Kentucky won. In the NCAA rematch, I favor the Tar
Heels, although the Wildcats have the better and bigger frontcourt. The key to
beating North Carolina is to make the Heels into a half-court team and take
away transition opportunities. Kentucky can do that. Still, Carolina will move
on to the Final Four.
FINAL
FOUR
Michigan vs. Duke: Duke has Zion Williamson.
Enough said.
Virginia vs. North Carolina: The Tar Heels will
even the score after losing to Virginia at the Dean Smith Center on Big Monday.
NATIONAL
CHAMPIONSHIP
Duke vs. North Carolina: These rivals meet in the
NCAA tournament for the first time ever. North Carolina had a shot in the air
to beat Duke in the ACC semifinals, but it didn't fall. If Coby White gets
another chance to win at the buzzer, he makes it this time. UNC wins.
MY CHAMPION IS NORTH
CAROLINA
No comments:
Post a Comment