TRACKING EVERY BIG
SIGNING AND MOVE
Welcome to 2019 NFL free agency. I'm grading the most notable offseason
moves -- signings and trades -- below, so come back throughout the month for
updates as deals are completed.
The most recent grades and write-ups are at the top, and the
first grade goes all the way back to Feb. 7, when the Cardinals added cornerback Robert Alford.
Keep in mind that I'm not grading deals until we get a
clearer picture of the money involved. So if you don't see a grade for a deal
that has been reported, check back later.
FRIDAY, MARCH 15
RONALD DARBY,
CB, PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
The deal: One year, $8.5 million
Grade: C
Arguably the top cornerback available on the market, Darby's
two-year run with the Eagles has been uneven, thanks mostly to injuries. The
former Bills second-round pick suffered a dislocated ankle in his first game
with the team and missed the first half of the 2017 season, then went down with
a torn ACL in Philly's 27-20 loss to the Cowboys and missed the second half of
the 2018 season. Darby has played just 17 games over two seasons, and while
Eagles fans will have positive memories of Darby matching up against Julio Jones near
the goal line in that playoff win against the Falcons, he has been a liability
for stretches of his run.
The Eagles have generally been cheap with their cornerback
decisions, which is why a one-year, $8.5 million contract doesn't seem to solve
any matter. It's not cheap, especially for a player coming off an ACL tear.
It's a one-year deal, so even if Darby does have a Pro Bowl-caliber season, he
can go somewhere else in 2020. And given the injury concerns, the Eagles will
lose more if he gets hurt this year as opposed to when he was making less than
a million dollars this past season.
Darby still has breakout potential, and the 25-year-old
could suddenly morph into a shutdown corner, but in a division with Eli Manning and Colt McCoy as
two of the three other quarterbacks, the Eagles might have been smart to play
it cheap at corner in the first place.
MIA TRADES QB RYAN TANNEHILL TO TEN
Tennessee
Titans get: QB Ryan
Tannehill, 2019 sixth-round pick
Miami
Dolphins get: 2019 seventh-round pick, 2020
fourth-round pick
Titans grade: C+
Dolphins grade: C+
If you have aspirations of playing quarterback in the NFL,
now might be a good time to get to Miami. Days after the Dolphins missed out on
signing free agent Teddy Bridgewater to presumably replace Tannehill, Miami
decided to respond by getting rid of its starting signal-caller anyway.
Tannehill's seven-year run as Dolphins QB1 ended with Friday's trade, as he'll
now become the backup to Marcus Mariota in
Tennessee.
This is a very similar swap to the Case Keenum trade
from earlier this offseason. Like Keenum, Tannehill was on an untenable base
salary ($18.7 million) which held no trade value. The Dolphins would have been
forced to cut Tannehill, but to facilitate a deal; he was willing to take a pay
cut down to a $7 million base salary with incentives. The Broncos were forced
to chip in $3.5 million of base salary for Keenum because they owed him
guaranteed money, but while the Dolphins didn't owe Tannehill any more money,
they paid $5 million of the $7 million in what likely amounted to buying a
better draft pick.
Tannehill saw the writing on the wall and took the sort of
pay cut he would have been forced to make in free agency anyway, but in doing
so, he got to ensure he would be in a promising situation. The Titans have been
playoff contenders or participants three years running, and they might have
made it into January with a better backup last season.
After seeing Blaine
Gabbert implode during the Week 17
play-in loss to the Colts, the Titans couldn't let him return as
Mariota's backup for 2019. Tennessee should have prioritized the backup
position earlier, of course, given how frequently Mariota gets injured.
Tannehill was never stunning as Miami's starter, and he has his own ugly injury
history, but his mobility and comfort booting off play-action make him a good
fit for what this Titans scheme is likely to look like under Arthur Smith, the
team's latest offensive coordinator.
There might even be a bit of a quarterback controversy if
Mariota gets hurt and Tannehill plays well in the starter's absence. Over the
past four seasons, Tannehill has posted a 91.1 passer rating to Mariota's 89.4
mark. Mariota's Total QBR is
much better, owing in part to his superiority as a runner, but both Mariota and
Tannehill are in the final years of their respective deals. The Titans
organization is making this move for its own peace of mind, not Mariota's.
I would grade this higher for Tennessee's side if the Titans
had managed to swap late-round picks and paid the extra cash for Tannehill's
base salary. The Dolphins had no leverage here; because Tannehill needed to
take a pay cut to make any sort of trade palatable, the former first-round pick
essentially had a no-trade clause. Given that there weren't any starting jobs
out there, it's hard to imagine that he would have preferred any situation to
the one behind Mariota in Tennessee.
From the Dolphins' side, it seems clear they're going to
make a move for a quarterback this offseason, given that the only passers left
on their roster are Jake Rudock and Luke Falk.
They struck out on Bridgewater, and while there were rumors linking the
Dolphins to Kyler Murray in the beginning of the draft process, the
Heisman Trophy winner's meteoric rise up the charts means he might come off the
board to the Cardinals at pick No. 1.
Independent of the Dolphins' landing Murray, Dwayne Haskins or another young quarterback in the draft,
Miami probably needs to add at least one competent veteran for 2019. It's slim
pickings in the free-agent market; the most plausible addition is
Floridian Blake Bortles, who was cut by the Jaguars this week.
I don't need to tell you Bortles has warts, and the Dolphins
wouldn't make a long-term commitment to the former third overall pick, but it's
at least worth remembering that Bortles threw for four touchdowns in Week 2
against the Patriots, who were coordinated by new Dolphins coach Brian Flores.
You can understand why the Dolphins would have preferred Bridgewater, but
unless they want to bring back Brock
Osweiler or take a flyer on AJ McCarron or Sam Bradford,
Bortles is actually the best option available.
HA HA CLINTON-DIX, S, CHICAGO BEARS
The deal: One year, $3.5 million
Grade: A
In the game of free safety musical chairs, the odd man out
was Clinton-Dix, who neither Green Bay nor Washington seemed particularly
impressed with during an uneven 2018 season. I suspect Clinton-Dix could have
found a multiyear deal on the market if he really wanted one, but when he saw what
guys like Landon
Collins and Tyrann
Mathieu were getting in free agency, you might imagine the idea of
putting a better year on tape before heading back into free agency in 2020
would be appealing.
It's difficult to think of a better landing spot than
Chicago, where the Bears will be able to surround him with one of the best
defenses in football. New defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano and Clinton-Dix
could take the blame if an otherwise-returning Bears defense declines in 2019
when the real causes are more likely to be regression toward the mean in terms
of takeaway rates and health, but that's no reason not to make
this signing. The Bears might still want to draft a safety to play in 2020,
since they won't likely have the space to re-sign Clinton-Dix if he returns to
form, but this is about as team-friendly of a deal as you'll see for a young
player with Pro Bowl upside.
ALEX OKAFOR,
DE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The deal: Three years, $24 million
Grade: C-
Okafor is a useful defensive end. He hasn't quite achieved
the heights of his eight-sack campaign with the Cardinals in 2014, but the
Texas product can be a useful contributor as a rotation end. The Saints traded
up to grab Marcus Davenport after Okafor tore his Achilles in
November of 2017, but the veteran held onto his starting job for all 16 games.
The Chiefs are paying Okafor $8 million per year in a year
in which the draft is full of edge rushers for a player who hasn't moved the
needle as a pro. It feels like Kansas City either needed to be more ambitious
as its tries to replace Dee Ford and Justin
Houston and go after a star, or go cheaper and try to just
flood its roster with depth. Okafor is somewhere in the middle.
BRIAN POOLE,
CB, NEW YORK JETS
The deal: One year, $3.5 million
Grade: B
Through the end of 2017, it looked like Poole was a
candidate for an extension with the Falcons. In 2018, things went so far south
that the Falcons decided against even tendering their nickel corner as a
restricted free agent when an original-rounder tender would have only cost $2
million. The Jets found Poole to be worth something more and gave the
26-year-old a one-year deal for nearly twice that figure. When nickel corners
like Justin Coleman are going for $9 million per season in
free agency, I'd rather take my chances with Poole and hope that 2018 was just
a poor season.
THURSDAY, MARCH 14
TEDDY BRIDGEWATER, QB, NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
The deal: One year, $7.25 million fully guaranteed with $5 million in incentives
Grade: C+
Bridgewater wants to play quarterback. Over the past three
seasons, he has thrown 25 regular-season passes while recovering from the
catastrophic knee injury that cost him his starting job in Minnesota. The
former Louisville star signed with the Jets last offseason, was waylaid when
they drafted Sam Darnold,
and then impressed enough in preseason to get sent to the Saints, where he sat
behind Drew Brees all season short a Week 17 start.
At the moment, there is technically one starting job open,
and it's with the Miami
Dolphins. The Dolphins haven't officially cut Ryan
Tannehill, and they might keep him around given that nobody seems to
want their quarterback spot, but if Bridgewater wanted the No. 1 job in Miami,
it could have been his. It's possible he was afraid that the Dolphins were
going to sign him and then draft a quarterback, which would have meant a
lame-duck job.
You might argue that a lame-duck spot in Miami is better
than sitting behind Brees in New Orleans, but there's something interesting to
look at when you check out how Brees performed in 2018.
SPLIT
|
CMP
|
ATT
|
CMP%
|
YDS
|
Y/ATT
|
TD
|
INT
|
RATING
|
QBR
|
Games
1-11 |
272
|
356
|
76.4%
|
3135
|
8.8
|
29
|
2
|
127.3
|
88.2
|
Games
12-17 |
146
|
211
|
69.2%
|
1407
|
6.7
|
7
|
5
|
88.7
|
55.4
|
From the prime-time loss to the Cowboys on, Brees went from
playing like a MVP to playing like a McCown. Brees was poor in the playoffs,
missing open receivers and even at times struggling to pull the trigger on his successful throws.
Could it just be randomness over what amounts to a six-game
sample? Of course. Would I worry about a middling end to the season if Brees
was 28? Not at all. He's 40, though, and when great quarterbacks get to this
point of their careers, they don't often decline gradually. They're incredible
for a long time and they suddenly lose it without regaining their old form.
Peyton Manning, as an example, posted a 107.8 passer rating
with 36 touchdowns and nine picks through the first 12 games of 2014. Over the
next month, he posted a passer rating of 76.8, with three touchdowns against
six picks, then posted a 75.5 rating in a playoff loss to the Colts. Manning
was a replacement-level passer the following season, and while the Broncos won
the Super Bowl, he was benched for Brock
Osweiler along the way and was a passenger even after he
returned to the lineup.
I'm not saying Brees is done. (I'm tempted to shout that
louder for posterity's sake.) I'll believe Brees is done if I see him play
that way for another six or eight games to start 2019. What I would say,
though, is that there's at least something to be worried about with
Brees' play for the first time in years. The chances that he's not going to
play like the Hall of Famer we all know are higher in 2019 than they were in
2018 or 2017. And if you're the Saints, well, you might be willing to pay a
premium to make sure that you have a starting-caliber backup to fill in if
Brees isn't his usual self.
The other interesting thing here is that
the Saints have Bridgewater signed to only a one-year deal, so if Brees returns
to form and stays healthy, Bridgewater will just collect his $7.5 million and
head to free agency again next year, with another year of his prime spent on
the sidelines. I'm surprised both sides couldn't come to terms on a longer-term
deal, perhaps one that would void if Bridgewater hit certain escalators. The
Saints might view Bridgewater as their long-term replacement for Brees, but
right now, he's back to biding his time.
GOLDEN TATE,
WR, NEW YORK GIANTS
The deal: Four years, $37 million with $23.5 million guaranteed
Grade: D+
Do you remember "Memento," the movie in which Guy
Pearce's short-term memory was destroyed and he lost the ability to remember
anything in the recent past? Is it possible the Giants are struggling with the
same condition? Days after trading Odell Beckham Jr. to signal that they were going to build
around Saquon Barkley and the running game, the Giants reversed
course and gave Tate a four-year deal with $23.5 million fully guaranteed at
signing.
It's bizarre for many reasons. To start, while the franchise
buried Beckham on his way out of town and called him a distraction, the Giants responded by signing a wideout who
was cited while with the Seahawks for breaking into a doughnut store and who
reportedly got into a fistfight with Percy Harvin the week before the Super Bowl.
(To be clear, I don't think those are actual character concerns, but they're
more meaningful than, say, getting into
a fight with a kicking net or simulating urination during a touchdown celebration.)
Tate is a strange fit for a team in the middle of a rebuild,
even if the Giants want to pretend otherwise. He's a tough receiver and a
willing blocker, but his best spot in the lineup is in the slot, where he
caught 150 passes from 2015-17. That was the sixth-highest total in the NFL
over that time frame. The Giants already have a slot receiver in Sterling Shepard, who is far cheaper than Tate; the Oklahoma
product has 149 receptions in the slot over his first three
seasons in the league, which is third in the NFL. We already saw what happened
last season in Philadelphia when the Eagles traded for Tate and were stuck
trying to fit Tate, Nelson
Agholor, Jordan
Matthews, and Zach Ertz in
the slot for targets. Tate got lost in the shuffle.
Furthermore, Tate turns 31 in August. He's smart enough to
get by without every ounce of athleticism, but the Giants guaranteed him enough
money to make this a very expensive two-year deal or a reasonably expensive three-year
pact. The Giants are blindly backing Eli Manning,
who will receive a $5 million bonus Saturday, for 2019; even if we
assume that they'll have a new quarterback in 2020, Tate is not going to be a
long-term solution for a team that needs to be looking for long-term solutions
right now. General manager Dave Gettleman is papering over the holes in this
offense with trades and free-agent signings, just as Jerry Reese did with the
defense years ago.
In addition, by signing Tate, the Giants are going to lose
the fifth-round compensatory pick they got when the Falcons signed Jamon Brown.
(A previous version of this section incorrectly stated that they would lose the
third-round pick they'll receive for Landon Collins.) They need to be targeting young talent and
draft picks to build around Barkley. While Tate is a talented player, this
isn't the right move for Big Blue.
JASON VERRETT,
CB, SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
The deal: One year, $3.6 million
Grade: B-
Everyone wants to see Verrett succeed, and with good reason.
The TCU product impressed as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl in 2015, but
injuries have ground his career to a halt. In 2014, he tore his labrum and
missed 10 games. In 2015, he missed two games with foot and groin ailments. In
2016, he tore his ACL after four games, and knee pain limited him to one game
in 2017 before he underwent another surgery. Last year, Verrett tore his
Achilles during the Chargers' conditioning test. He missed 43 of the Chargers'
past 48 games.
I'm surprised the 49ers would look toward the 5-foot-10
Verrett, if only because they tend to prefer taller cornerbacks, although K'Waun
Williams is 5-foot-9. This is obviously a lottery ticket on a
player who is years removed from playing regular football, although it's an
expensive one given the circumstances. If this is a one-year deal for less
money with a maximum of $3.6 million, it would make more sense, but if the
49ers are paying $3.6 million, they should have been able to get a second year
in the case that Verrett does stay healthy. It's a high-upside move by the
Niners.
ADRIAN
PETERSON, RB, WASHINGTON
The deal: Two years, $8 million
Grade: C
Left with nowhere to turn after Derrius Guice went
down with a torn ACL over the summer; Washington signed Peterson off the street
and got totally reasonable production. The 33-year-old finished 28th in Success Rate and
fumbled only three times on 271 touches, which had been a huge problem for the
future Hall of Famer; since his 15-game sabbatical in 2014, Peterson had
fumbled 11 times on just 564 touches.
Peterson has earned another job, and he's not a terrible fit
for Washington's scheme. At the same time, though, what are we really doing
here? Guice is back, and Washington used a second-round pick on him in the 2018
draft, suggesting it saw the LSU standout as a likely starter. Washington's
starting quarterbacks are Case Keenum and Colt McCoy.
The team is probably not going anywhere.
Isn't this time to go see if you can develop your next young
running back? Peterson has gotten cranky when he hasn't been getting regular
carries in years past, and he doesn't offer much value as a receiver or play
special teams. The best-case scenario is that we get another 2018 season out of
him, but even if that happens, it doesn't move the needle for this team.
DARYL WILLIAMS, OT, CAROLINA
PANTHERS
The deal: One year, up to $6 million
Grade: A
Williams is coming off of a serious knee injury that cost
the 26-year-old virtually the entire 2018 season, but he was a second-team
All-Pro in 2017. Given the thirst for useful tackles gripping most NFL teams
these days and the presence of former Panthers executives with subpar offensive
lines in Buffalo and New York, I figured he would have a nice market and end up
getting a multiyear deal, even with the knee injury.
Instead, Williams will be going back to Carolina on a
one-year deal that maxes out around $6 million. You can understand why he would
want to bet on himself and try to hit the market after a healthy season, since
he probably would be looking at a four-year deal in the $52 million range if he
were healthy.
It's an easy victory for the Panthers, whose offensive line
concerns look a lot better after re-signing Williams and adding Matt Paradis. This move likely displaces Taylor Moton,
who impressed in his first season as a starter while filling in for Williams at
right tackle. Where Moton goes next will be telling.
Then-GM Dave Gettleman made a huge mistake two years ago in
signing left tackle Matt Kalil to
a five-year, $55.5 million deal that was unsupported by tape, statistics or
medicine. Kalil's $7 million base salary guarantees on Friday, and while you
might think the Panthers would cut the former Vikings draftee, they also would
owe $14.7 million in dead money on their 2019 cap if they did so. Oops.
If they keep Kalil, you would figure that the Panthers will
give him one more shot at left tackle after he missed the entirety of the 2018
season. Moton would likely kick inside to play left guard, which would
push Greg Van Roten into a reserve role. I think their best
five-man line, though, is probably with Moton at left tackle, Van Roten at
guard, and Kalil on the bench. It will be interesting to see if Carolina feels
the same way.
EAGLES TRADE FOR DESEAN JACKSON
Philadelphia
Eagles get: WR DeSean
Jackson, 2020 seventh-round pick
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers get: 2019 sixth-round pick
Eagles grade: B- B
Bucs grade: C
UPDATE: As part of the trade for Jackson, the Eagles
restructured his deal and paid him a $3 million bonus while handing him a three-year, $27 million contract. Jackson was set to have a
$10 million base salary in 2019, but this deal should lower his cap hit, which
will help Philadelphia if it wants to add a veteran or two on defense.
Even after trading for Jackson, the Eagles interestingly
decided to hold onto Nelson
Agholor, whose $9.4 million base salary is now guaranteed. Agholor
might have a small amount of trade value, but it looks like the Eagles will
move forward with Agholor, Jackson and Alshon
Jeffery as their three wideouts in 2019. Philly will likely
have more than $30 million in cap space devoted to their three receivers, which
is a lot for a team whose best formation in 2019 might be with Zach Ertz and Dallas
Goedert on the field together. Strictly looking at the Jackson
deal, though, this is a good move for the Eagles.
Original write-up: Four-plus years after being
ignominiously released by the Eagles in May 2014, Jackson's returning home to
Philly. By trading for the player on whom they once used a second-round pick,
the Eagles fill a hole they've struggled to nail down since Carson Wentz arrived
in town in 2016. While Wentz ranks eighth in Total QBR since the start of 2016
on throws within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, the fourth-year passer is
22nd in the same category on throws 16-plus yards downfield. The Eagles have
tried to create downfield opportunities by adding options such as Torrey Smith and Mike Wallace,
and Mack Hollins showed
some promise during his rookie campaign before getting hurt last year, but none
of them can compare to Jackson as a deep weapon.
The on-field fit is perfect. With Alshon
Jeffery, Zach Ertz and
Jackson, the Eagles have a classic X-Y-Z receiving corps. There isn't the
overlap in skill set and desired role there was last season with Ertz, Golden Tate and Nelson
Agholor. There also doesn't appear to be a long-term investment,
given that Jackson was entering the final year of his deal at $10
million. Chris
Mortensen tweeted that Jackson would take home $13 million in
2019 as part of a restructure, but it's unclear whether the Eagles added more
years to the deal to lower the cap hit in 2019 or simply gave Jackson a raise
to stay out of free agency.
The big concerns for Jackson are age and injury, but one
seems more worrisome than the other. Jackson led the league with 18.9 yards per
reception last season, marking the fourth time in 11 years that the 32-year-old
managed to pull off that feat. Jackson's average pass attempt traveled 19.1
yards in the air, which was the highest figure in the league by 2.5 yards for
someone with 50 targets or more. He still stretches the field just fine. Unless
he falls off a cliff during the offseason, Jackson should be a vertical threat for
the Eagles in 2019.
Injuries seem like a bigger cause for worry. Jackson hasn't
completed a 16-game season since he left Philadelphia, as he has missed 14
games the past five seasons with various ailments. There's no single body part
ailing Jackson, either -- he has missed time with everything from shoulder and
hamstring issues to a thumb injury, which cost the former Cal star multiple
weeks last season. If Jackson's price tag for 2019 is $13 million, he needs to
stay healthy to return excess value on that deal.
I'm not really enthused by this move
for the Bucs, who just hired a head coach who loves to throw the ball
downfield, in Bruce Arians. If you're gonna play "no risk it, no
biscuit" offense, who represents a better fit than DeSean Jackson? The Bucs
desperately tried to manufacture a trade market for Jackson and failed before
basically trading him for the smallest possible compensation. They'll move
forward with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as
their top two wideouts, though I still think they could look to make a move for
former Arians pupil John Brown as
their deep threat.
KWON
ALEXANDER, LB, SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
The deal: Four years, $54 million with $27 million semi-guaranteed
Grade: D+
UPDATE: This is similar to the Jerick
McKinnon contract from last season, where it's really a
one-year pact with options. The 49ers will pay Alexander $14.5 million for the
2019 season, which is still way too much given that the franchise tag for
linebackers is $15.5 million and that's mostly based on pass-rushers. After
that, the 49ers can go year to year with cap figures of $13.1 million, $14.4
million and $14.5 million.
Original write-up: The 49ers have a habit of
making signings like this under general manager John Lynch. They fall in love
with a player and pay him like the player they imagine him being as opposed to
the player the rest of the market is negotiating against. These moves generally
don't work out. In 2017, it was Malcolm Smith and Kyle Juszczyk.
Last year, it was Jerick
McKinnon, who missed all of his debut season with the team because
of a torn ACL.
The closest example of this for the 49ers in the draft was
with now-departed inside linebacker Reuben Foster.
After the 2017 draft, when the Niners traded down one spot with the Bears and
drafted pass-rusher Solomon
Thomas, Lynch traded back into the bottom of the first round to
draft Foster. Afterward, Lynch suggested that Foster was the third-highest
player on their draft board and that if the Bears had taken Thomas with the
second overall pick, he would have chosen Foster third.
In the end, the rest of the league let Foster fall to 31,
where the 49ers grabbed him for an ill-fated run at inside linebacker. The
Niners cut Foster in November after multiple incidents of domestic
abuse, and while the 49ers had some success with Fred Warner in
the middle last season, it's not a surprise that they wanted to go after a
long-term solution at middle linebacker this offseason.
For a linebacker with one Pro Bowl appearance (as an injury
replacement) coming off a torn ACL, though, this price tag has to be considered
exorbitant. Alexander now has the largest annual average salary for any
off-ball linebacker in the league at $13.5 million, although C.J. Mosley will
likely top that figure when he signs a free-agent deal later this week. It's
difficult to believe the 49ers couldn't have found similar production at a much
cheaper cost, especially as veterans such as Zach Brown and Brandon
Marshall are expected to hit the market.
It's tough to judge Alexander's production in Tampa, in part
because the defense around him was so bad. He missed 18 games over his four
seasons with injuries and a four-game PED suspension, and while that's not
ideal, it gives us a reasonable sample to see how the Bucs' defense performed
with and without him on the field.
The Bucs were unquestionably better with Alexander around,
but they weren't great in any scenario. Tampa's run defense allowed 4.3 yards
per carry and first downs on 25.3 percent of rushing attempts without Alexander
on the field. With him around, the Bucs gave up 4.1 yards per carry and allowed
24.1 percent of rushing attempts to turn into first downs. The league averages
over that time frame were for 4.2 yards per carry and a 22.5 percent first-down
rate on running plays.
Alexander was similarly helpful against the pass, although
again, it wasn't enough to push Tampa into competency. The Bucs allowed a 108.3
passer rating and a 75.5 Total QBR with Alexander off the field, which is like
turning every opposing offense into Drew Brees.
With Alexander, their numbers were still not great, but certainly better: Tampa
gave up a passer rating of 95.3 and a Total QBR of 62.9 with him on the field.
The evidence suggests Alexander is a good linebacker. The
49ers are paying him like he's a threat to be a first-team All-Pro linebacker
every season, and that just isn't borne out by Alexander's career. A torn ACL
is hardly a death knell for careers in the modern NFL, but it wouldn't be
shocking if he got off to a slow start next season, given that he tore up his
knee in October. The 49ers will likely have a team-friendly structure on this
deal, and I suspect that Alexander's $27 million in guarantees aren't fully
locked in at the time he signs his deal, but this deal is solving a problem
most teams address for far less.
WEDNESDAY, MARCH
13
TEVIN COLEMAN,
RB, SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
The deal: Two years, $10 million
Grade: B+
This is a good price for the 49ers, given that Coleman was
probably expecting a longer contract with more than $10 million in guarantees
when the free-agent period started. San Francisco was also reportedly in with a
serious bid on Le'Veon Bell, but the former Steelers back chose to join the
Jets instead.
I still think the 49ers could have gotten by just fine
with Matt Breida
and a draft pick at halfback, but they continue to invest in running backs with
pass-catching ability in free agency. Last year's McKinnon deal saw the
49ers pay $12 million in one year for a back who had been one of the worst
runners in football the previous two seasons. This signing is far more
palatable, especially if it's a guarantee in the $5-6 million range.
Will the 49ers carry Coleman, McKinnon and Breida? I'm
skeptical, in part because the 49ers almost surely would have cut McKinnon if
they had signed Bell. Most teams want their third back to play special teams,
which could be insightful. Coleman doesn't play special teams, but he's
guaranteed a roster spot this season. McKinnon wasn't a regular special-teamer
in Minnesota, as he suited up regularly in 2015 and was there occasionally in
2017 but didn't play in 2016. Breida suited up on special teams in 2017 for the
49ers but mostly sat them out in 2018, as he started at halfback and played
through an ankle injury. The 49ers wouldn't realize any cap savings from
cutting McKinnon, but they would save $3.7 million in cash. Breida will make
$645,000 in the third year of his rookie deals, and I suspect he would have
some trade market if the 49ers want to keep Coleman and McKinnon.
TYRELL
WILLIAMS, WR, OAKLAND
RAIDERS
The deal: Four years, $44 million, $22 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
Williams looked to be the top wideout on the market heading
into free agency, but in a market in which teams seemed desperate to add
talent, the slot receivers came off the board first. It looked like Williams
might head east for one of the rookie quarterbacks, but in the end, he stays in
California for one more season by signing a four-year deal with the Raiders.
Derek Carr won't
be able to say the Raiders haven't rebuilt his receiving corps. After heading
into the offseason with Jordy Nelson and Marcell
Ateman as his wideouts, Carr will be able to boast an
above-average deep threat in Williams and an all-around star in Antonio Brown.
Nelson should move into the slot as the third wideout, though there's a chance
the Raiders move on from the 33-year-old former Packers star after an
indifferent first season in Oakland.
Williams might get a slight upgrade in going from Philip Rivers to
Carr. Over the past four seasons, Carr has a better QBR, passer rating and
completion percentage on passes 16 or more yards downfield than his divisional
rival. The Raiders don't appear very interested in re-signing Jared Cook, but
they're a tight end away from an imposing receiving corps.
JASON MYERS,
K, SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS
The deal: Four years, $15-16 million
Grade: D+
Myers spent two-plus years as the Jaguars' kicker between
2015 and 2017 and hit on 81.0 percent of his field goals. The Seahawks had
Myers in camp last summer and cut him in favor of Sebastian Janikowski, who was
inconsistent in his first season outside of Oakland. Myers caught on with the
Jets and produced a career season, hitting 33 of his 36 field goal tries.
The chances are far greater that Myers's true field goal
rate is closer to his career average of 84.3 percent than his 2018 rate of 91.7
percent, and if the former is accurate, then Myers isn't worth this sort of
commitment.
CORDARRELLE
PATTERSON, WR, CHICAGO BEARS
The deal: Two years, $10 million
Grade: C
I'm intrigued by the fit here, given all that Bill Belichick
managed to get out of Patterson last season. On offense, I think Patterson is
more of a backup at multiple positions than anything else. He isn't going to
start ahead of Tarik Cohen or Mike Davis at
halfback or for Taylor
Gabriel at wideout. But he could see 10-15 snaps across those
positions per game when everyone's healthy and fill in when someone goes down.
Patterson's also an excellent return man, and while Cohen
was a very good punt returner last season, Patterson should step in as
Chicago's primary kick returner. This is a lot to pay for a player who
unquestionably got the Belichick Bump last season, but I would imagine that
Matt Nagy will be able to carve out some semblance of an offensive role from
week to week for Patterson
STEVEN NELSON,
CB, PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
The deal: Three years, $25.5 million
Grade: C-
Do you remember watching the Chiefs on defense the past
couple of seasons and remarking that one of their cornerbacks not named Marcus Peters was
worth more than $8 million per season? The Steelers thought otherwise, and
while they have a desperate need for help at cornerback across from Joe Haden,
paying Nelson this sort of money leaves the Steelers with hope as opposed to a
solution.
Nelson was Kansas City's best cornerback in 2018, and you
might argue that Bob Sutton didn't do a great job of developing his young
talent, but Nelson isn't the sort of cornerback whom I'd be comfortable paying
this much money. Nelson was a weird fit with the Chiefs, given his 5-foot-11,
194-pound frame and Kansas City's propensity for man coverage under Sutton. The
Steelers will have to hope that the 26-year-old is better when given the chance
to play zone more frequently.
With Nelson, Haden and slot corner Mike Hilton all
under contract; it looks like the Steelers are giving up on Artie Burns for
the foreseeable future. The 2016 first-round pick was being pegged for stardom
as recently as last offseason, and the Steelers might have to consider trading
Burns while he still has some value as a reclamation project. This deal also
cancels out the comp pick the Steelers were going to earn for Jesse James;
though it's not a big enough contract to wipe away the pick Pittsburgh should
get for Le'Veon Bell.
PIERRE DESIR,
CB, INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
The deal: Three years, $25 million with $12 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
The Colts are retaining one of the biggest breakouts from
their impressive season, and they're doing so at a relatively modest price.
Desir struggled in Cleveland and bounced around the league before ending up in
Indy, but his size and ability to play the sideline in Indy's Cover-2 last
season made the Linden wood product a valuable corner. At 28, he should still
have plenty of football left to go.
You might compare this deal to Justin
Coleman's contract in Detroit, given that Coleman also bounced around
the league before finding a home. Coleman has two years of above-average play
to Desir's one, and he's three years younger. Those are advantages. Coleman
also seems likely limited to the slot, while Desir can play outside, which is
generally a more valuable deal. Desir's deal also guarantees him $12 million,
whereas Coleman's contract has $18 million in practical guarantees through two
seasons.
HENRY ANDERSON, DL, NEW YORK JETS
The deal: Three years, $25.2 million
Grade: C+
The Jets were excited to bring back Anderson, who has
flashed with stretches of great play during his career and racked up seven
sacks on 668 defensive snaps during his first season in New York. The former
Colts draftee also produced 16 knockdowns last season, so there's nothing
particularly fluky about that sack total. I'm not sure I would call him a great
pure pass-rusher from watching him on tape, but the 6-foot-6 Stanford product
has a good motor. Most of his sacks were second efforts or came on plays where
he recognized that a quarterback was about to try to leave the pocket.
The worry with Anderson has been health, as 2018's 16-game
season marked the first time Anderson has been able to make it past 11 games in
a campaign. He suffered a torn ACL in 2015, and while he made it back for 2016,
he struggled with the injury and was never 100 percent. In 2017, Anderson went
down in midseason with a fractured larynx, which is about as freakish as freak
injuries get. The Jets might run the risk of paying for an outlier season of
health, but I like his fit as a 3-4 end in New York.
CAMERON WAKE,
OLB/DE, TENNESSEE TITANS
The deal: Three years, $23 million with $10 million guaranteed
Grade: C+
In the absence of a Patriots player to sign, the Titans
instead opted for someone who has gone up against the Patriots for a decade.
The seemingly ageless Wake left the Dolphins amid their rebuilding project, and
while I thought he might look for a perennial playoff contender to join on a
one-year deal, he will end up joining a Tennessee team which came one win away
from back-to-back playoff appearances.
Because Wake spent years in the CFL before making his move
to Miami, he's older than might you think; the Penn State product turned 37 in
January. It seemed reasonable to count him out after he tore his Achilles in
2015, but Wake responded with a Pro Bowl 11.5-sack season in 2016 and a
10.5-sack season the following season.
Was 2018 the year Wake finally slowed down? Early on, it
seemed likely, given that the onetime BC Lions star racked up just one sack and
three quarterback hits in his first four games before missing two weeks with a
knee scope. He wasn't his usual self in his first two games back, but over the
final half of the year, Classic Wake returned. The five-time Pro Bowler
generated five sacks and 14 knockdowns over the final eight games of the
season, with the latter figure ranking 14th in the NFL.
I'm not sure we can count on the
second-half version of Wake showing up, although it's also fair to say he's
defied expectations before. In a draft full of edge rushing talent, too, I
think I'd rather see the Titans go after a linebacker in the first round to
play across from Harold Landry and
go after more of a rotational rusher in reserve. It would be a better deal if
the guarantee was more in the $6-7 million range.
EARL THOMAS,
S, BALTIMORE RAVENS
The deal: Four years, $55 million with $32 million fully guaranteed
Grade: B
Well, if the Ravens wanted to help fans get over the losses
of Eric Weddle and C.J. Mosley;
this is a step in the right direction. Baltimore is replacing a very good
veteran safety with arguably the best safety of his generation in Thomas, who
is likely to end up in Canton one day. It's not quite as sure of a bet as it
once was when Thomas was a perennial first-team All-Pro pick from 2012-14, but
Thomas has been a game-changer when healthy.
Over the past three seasons, even as his influence has
conceivably waned because of injuries, the Seahawks have been a much better
defense with their star safety on the field:
FILTER
|
CMP
|
ATT
|
CMP%
|
PSYDS
|
Y/ATT
|
TD
|
INT
|
RATING
|
TOTAL
QBR |
Thomas
on field |
563
|
936
|
60.1%
|
5,799
|
6.7
|
30
|
30
|
77.2
|
46.6
|
Thomas
off field |
448
|
699
|
64.1%
|
5,002
|
7.7
|
31
|
7
|
98.2
|
52.1
|
That interception split is stunning. Thomas is a ball hawk
-- the Texas product had three in what amounts to three-plus games last season
before breaking his leg in Week 4 -- but his presence in the deep middle of the
field also allowed his teammates to be more aggressive attacking underneath
routes, knowing that they had a monster lurking over the top.
If the Ravens get the healthy Thomas of old, this is an easy
win. There's no guarantee Thomas will be that guy over the length of this deal.
He turns 30 in May and is coming off two different broken legs in the past
three seasons. The Seahawks clearly didn't think he was going to age well,
which was one of the reasons they didn't re-sign him.
This is also a big investment when you see
the guaranteed figure. Almost 60 percent (58.1) of the total money is
guaranteed, which is the largest percentage for a veteran safety with a deal of
$20 million or more on an active deal. Most four-year free-agent deals are
really two-year pacts. This is more likely to be a three-year contract. If any
veteran's upside is worth betting on, though, it's Thomas.
MARK INGRAM,
RB, BALTIMORE RAVENS
The deal: Three years, $15 million
Grade: C
I'm less enthused about Baltimore's second move of the
afternoon, which saw the team invest in a running back by signing Ingram to a
three-year deal. The guarantee could end up pushing this grade in either
direction; it's not as bad of a contract if it's a $5-6 million guarantee on a
one-year pact, but if it's closer to $10 million guaranteed, this would be even
worse.
After struggling throughout most of his rookie deal, Ingram
rounded into form and emerged as a valuable rotation back in New Orleans. He
has worked hard to improve as a receiver, and while he's not going to be
mistaken for Alvin Kamara,
he is a viable screen-and-safety valve option out of the backfield.
I don't love the fit with Ingram and the Ravens. For one, Baltimore
is going to cancel out one of its compensatory picks by signing Ingram, who
wasn't cut by the Saints. It's true that Thomas' contract will cancel out a
higher compensatory selection, but the chances of finding a safety like Thomas
after June 1 or in the draft are slim to none. It's far easier to find running
backs, and there will be useful veterans at the position who get cut in the
weeks to come. The Ravens have found effective running backs for nothing in
recent years by signing the likes of Justin Forsett, Alex Collins and Gus Edwards for
peanuts.
It's true that the Ravens are going to a run-heavy offense
with Lamar Jackson as their quarterback, and having a veteran
back like Ingram will help. Given that Jackson spent the vast majority of his
time in the pistol last season, though, I would at least be a little anxious to
see how Ingram adjusts. Over the past five seasons, more than 85 percent of
Ingram's carries have come from under center. He has averaged 4.8 yards per
attempt on those runs, a figure that dropped to 4.4 when Drew Brees was
in the shotgun or pistol. Ingram has had a higher EPA+ percentage when Brees
hasn't been under center, so it might not be a big concern, but taking a rare
carry out of the shotgun and getting virtually every run out of the pistol is a
different ballgame.
Ingram turns 30 in December, and while he hasn't had a huge
workload as a pro, multiyear deals for backs around this age rarely work out. I
can see why the Ravens wanted to add a back, and Ingram might very well be able
to translate his success in New Orleans to Baltimore, but the Ravens probably
would have been better off using this $5 million to help re-sign future free
agents such as Matt Judon and Patrick Onwuasor, or by going after Justin
Houston to help their edge rush.
TASHAUN
GIPSON, S, HOUSTON
TEXANS
The deal: Three years, $22.5 million with $11.3 million guaranteed at signing
Grade: B
If the Texans were going to lose Tyrann
Mathieu, Gipson at nearly half of the price is a good fallback plan.
It was a bit of a surprise when the Jaguars cut the 28-year-old safety,
especially because they cut fellow starter Barry Church in
midseason from what had been the league's most dominant secondary the previous
season.
Gipson made his name in Cleveland as a ball hawk after
intercepting 11 passes in 27 games from 2013-14, but even given legitimate ball
skills, he hasn't been able to keep up that interception rate. He has just
eight picks over the ensuing 61 games, although he did knock away seven passes
in each of the past two seasons. He also didn't miss a game during his three
years in Jacksonville, so for a sturdy, above-average veteran safety, the
Texans came away with a good price given the rest of the market. If Gipson can
spike a five-interception season during the deal, even better.
KC TRADES OLB/DE DEE FORD TO SF
49ers get: OLB/DE Dee Ford
Chiefs get: 2020 second-round pick
49ers grade: B-
Chiefs grade: D+
I don't want to make this grade a referendum on the hiring
of new Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, but it's hard to separate
the hire from what happened here. Ford, coming off a 13-sack season, was
reportedly dealt to the 49ers because he didn't fit into Spagnuolo's 4-3
scheme. With the news that the Chiefs were cutting Justin
Houston for cap reasons earlier this week, a team whose
secondary would politely be characterized as a moving sidewalk to the end zone
last season is now suddenly down its top two edge rushers from a year ago.
It would be foolish, to some extent, to hire a defensive
coordinator whose scheme doesn't fit the personnel you spent years trying to
acquire for a 3-4. It would be really foolish, though, to hire a defensive
coordinator who hasn't been good for a long stretch of time and then mold your
new defense to his scheme. Since Spagnuolo left the Giants after the 2008
season, he has produced
exactly one defense with an above-average DVOA in seven tries
as a defensive coordinator or head coach.
That season came in 2016, when the Giants loaded up on free
agents and just about everyone on their defense stayed healthy. They finished
second in defensive DVOA. Otherwise, Spagnuolo's defenses have ranked no better
than 19th, with three bottom-three finishes and an average rank of worse than
26th in those six other seasons. He has pieced together one good season, and
that was when the defense was full of big-money additions. The Chiefs just
traded away their two best pass-rushers, though they added safety Tyrann
Mathieu.
What's really interesting, then, is that the 49ers are
trading for Ford, given that they play a 4-3 base defense under Robert Saleh.
In a league in which teams are in their nickel package more often than not,
anyway, the difference between 3-4 and 4-3 for edge rushers has meant less than
ever before. The Chiefs, notably, were in sub-packages with five or more
defensive backs on more than 75 percent of their defensive snaps last season.
The interesting thing is figuring out where the 49ers plan
on using Ford, because it could reveal their plans for the second overall pick in
the draft. They have an excellent interior disruptor in DeForest Buckner, but they haven't gotten much from their edge
rushers. In 2017, their leading sack total was six, from now-retired veteran
Elvis Dumervil. Last season, Cassius Marsh picked
up 5.5 sacks as the weakside pass-rusher, in what Saleh and other veterans of
the Seattle defensive scheme refer to as the Leo role.
In one scenario, the 49ers could use Ford as a strong-side
linebacker on early downs before moving him into a pure pass-rushing role as a
defensive end in obvious passing situations, similar to how the Seahawks
used Bruce Irvin during most of his time in Seattle. The 252-pound
Ford is similarly sized to the 250-pound Irvin, and while the Chiefs were
concerned about his ability to hold up against the run as a 4-3 end, getting
him off of the line of scrimmage and behind former first-round pick Arik Armstead would
make his life easier.
Given that the 49ers acquired Ford and then gave him a
five-year, $87.5 million extension to stick around in San Francisco, it's
hardly out of the question that they see him as their pass-rush solution at the
Leo spot. Its way easier to find a strongside linebacker who can occasionally
rush the quarterback than it is to find a pure pass-rusher; this would be an
absolutely enormous amount of money to pay for Ford if he lines up off of the
line of scrimmage most first downs.
Ford, out of Auburn, has been productive enough as a pass-rusher
to justify the role. He had a 10-sack season in his first year as a full-time
starter in 2016, and while injuries held him to two sacks in six games the
following season, he posted a career season with 13 sacks and 29 knockdowns
last season. The Chiefs faced a league-high 684 pass plays, 14 more than any
other team and 92 more than the league average, but those are excellent numbers
regardless.
The price tag suggests the 49ers are trading for Ford to be
their Leo. If that's the case, they might be open for business with the second
overall pick. The Cardinals have the top pick and appear to be actively making
eyes at Kyler Murray. If they do go for the Oklahoma quarterback, the
49ers would theoretically have their choice of star edge rushers between Nick Bosa and Josh Allen, each of whom would figure as a possible Leo. If
the Cardinals go for Bosa or Allen, the 49ers would still have a shot at one of
the two options, but if they're paying Ford to be the Leo, they're most likely
out of the edge-rushing market.
That leaves San Francisco in an interesting spot with its
pick. It doesn't need a quarterback, which would rule it out on Murray or
Haskins. The Niners probably don't want to take a tackle in the first round for
the second consecutive year after drafting Mike
McGlinchey in 2018, even with Joe Staley's
advancing age, so that would wipe Jonah Williams off the board. They could target Alabama
defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, who might be the best player at any position
in this draft, but his role in the lineup presumably would come at the expense
of Solomon Thomas, whom Lynch took with the third overall pick
two years ago. Thomas has struggled, but the 49ers are unlikely to give up on a
player they drafted that high.
We're left with one other scenario: Trade down, presumably
to a team which wants to grab either Haskins, Quinnen Williams or their pick of
the edge rushers. That would be an ideal move for the 49ers, especially given
that cornerbacks like Greedy Williams and Deandre Baker should be on the board after the top six
picks come off.
As for the Chiefs, a team which should be
stockpiling talent around Patrick
Mahomes while the MVP is on a rookie deal has mostly been
shedding pieces this offseason. Kansas City's top edge rusher as of now is 2018
second-rounder Breeland
Speaks, who had 1.5 sacks and eight knockdowns as a rookie. He might
turn into a great player, but it would be lunacy to head into the season with Speaks
as the top defensive end. The Chiefs can use the draft to go after one of the
many edge rushers available, but this trade would have made more sense if they
had been able to extract San Francisco's second-rounder in the 2019 draft as
opposed to next year's second-rounder. Could they use the money earmarked for
Ford to get more defensive help? There is no player as promising as Ford left
in the free-agent pool.
LE'VEON BELL, RB, NEW YORK JETS
The deal: Four years, $52.5 million with $35 million guaranteed
Grade: C-
If you could go back to the summer of 2018 and tell Bell
that his holdout would net an offer with an average annual salary just north of
$13 million in free agency, would he be excited? My suspicion is no. I don't
think his gambit to pass on signing a $14.5 million franchise tag from the
Steelers and sit out the 2018 season worked for a number of reasons.
Bell's new deal comes in lower than most observers would
have expected by just about every measure. He got $5 million less in his
extension than Todd Gurley picked up from the Rams, and that was a deal
signed with two years of cost control left before L.A. even got to the
possibility of a franchise tag. Even more surprising, though, is that Bell's
deal averages just $125,000 per year more than the three-year, $39 million
extension David Johnson signed
with the Cardinals before last season. Johnson had one year left on his rookie
contract, had just one year with elite production, and was coming off of a
season in which he went down with a dislocated wrist in Week 1.
If you slice the $14.5 million Bell left on the table out of
the contract, you might instead call this a four-year, $38 million deal. That
would still make Bell the leagues third-highest paid back behind Gurley and
Johnson, but it would leave him closer to the likes of Devonta
Freeman than it would to Gurley. Bell's deal can reportedly hit
$61 million with incentives, which would get him over the $15 million per year
number that was commonly thrown around before this free-agent period, but it's
unclear how likely those incentives are to be hit.
As CBS Sports' Joel Corry noted in February, given the five-year,
$70 million deal Bell reportedly turned down from the Steelers, he didn't make
this new contract work. Since he was already in line to make $14.5 million on
the tag, he rejected an offer that would have paid him an additional $55.5
million over four seasons. Not only did Bell pass up the $14.5 million from the
tag, but the offer he ended up getting on the market didn't even hit what the
remainder of Pittsburgh's offer would have been on a long-term deal.
Bell might respond by pointing out that Pittsburgh's deal
didn't have the sort of guaranteed money he was hoping for. As I mentioned when
breaking down the Antonio Brown contract, Pittsburgh traditionally
guarantees only signing bonuses in their deals. Bell would likely have had a first-year roster bonus in his deal, which would have added
extra guarantees, but the Steelers would not have come up with an
offer that would have actually guaranteed the $35 million he will get from the
Jets without totally breaking away from their typical contractual structure. As
we saw with Brown, that wasn't going to happen.
While Bell took a year off and was able to rest his body
from the wear and tear of football, Corry makes a good point about the aging
rate of halfbacks. Bell essentially traded his age-26 season, where he was
guaranteed $14.5 million, for a shot at adding time to his career and having a
fresher season after his contract is up. Veteran backs on the wrong side of 30
rarely get meaningful money in their deals, and it would be tough to imagine a
scenario in which Bell ends up getting $14.5 million for his age-31 campaign
after this deal is up.
Corry suggests in his piece that Bell would have needed to
come away with a four-year, $72.5 million offer in free agency to make his
decision to pass up Pittsburgh's offer worth it. Bell came up $20 million
short. He will sleep just fine at night with this offer from the Jets, and it's
going to be an afterthought when we talk about Bell's career a decade from now,
but if you're wondering why his market wasn't as robust as he expected, let's
run down the reasons:
1. The Steelers rushing' attack was just fine without
him. The best thing for the 27-year-old's market value would have been
if Pittsburgh's offense had collapsed in his absence. That didn't happen.
Pittsburgh's offense averaged 25.2 points per game, up from its 24.4 points per
contest in 2017. It declined in offensive
DVOA, but only from third in the league to sixth.
The Steelers inserted James Conner and
then Jaylen Samuels into the breach, and the duo outperformed
the Bell we saw play out the franchise tag in 2017:
- Bell
in 2017: 4.0 yards per carry, with a first-down percentage of
23.1 and an EPA+ percentage of 40.5.
- Conner/Samuels
in 2018: 4.5 yards per carry, with a first-down percentage of
25.5 and an EPA+ percentage of 44.6.
EPA+ percentage is the percentage of carries each back had
that added to the expected points the Steelers were likely to score on their
respective drives.
Pittsburgh did have to change its offense to account for
Bell being gone. It threw the ball more frequently, calling for passes on 67.4
percent of its snaps last season as opposed to 58.4 percent of the offensive
plays in 2017. The Steelers also missed Bell as a receiver, although Conner
caught 55 passes for 497 yards and averaged 7.0 yards per target, which was
better than the 6.2 yards per target Bell averaged in 2017.
At the same time, if we can even make a credible case that
the Steelers got similar production from two backs who made a combined $1.1
million in 2018 as Pittsburgh received from a franchise-tagged Bell in 2017,
there's no reason to split hairs. There's no question the smarter teams in the
league looked at how Pittsburgh operated without Bell and thought that he was
less impactful after looking at the offense in his absence. (The same might
very well be true for Gurley in Los Angeles after C.J. Anderson's
late-season run.)
2. Big running back contracts typically don't work out. Too
often, teams that sign backs to hefty contracts end up regretting the deal
and/or get similar production from another back on a much cheaper deal when
their star is unavailable. The Rams enjoyed an excellent half-season from Gurley
to start his new extension, but once the former first-rounder missed time with
ankle and knee injuries, Los Angeles signed Anderson off the free-agent wire
and saw him post similar production for a fraction of the cost. The Rams are
going to be in the Gurley deal for a while, and he's unquestionably a great
player, but they didn't really suffer in his absence.
Johnson averaged 3.6 yards per carry for the Cardinals last
season. Freeman played in two games for the Falcons. LeSean McCoy averaged
3.2 yards per rush with Buffalo. Jerick
McKinnon, who took home $12 million in the first year of his deal
with the 49ers, never suited up for the team after tearing his ACL. Undrafted
free agent Matt Breida averaged
5.3 yards per carry while battling injuries in McKinnon's place.
It's hard to find a big running back contract in recent
years that worked well. The Vikings got an MVP season from Adrian
Peterson's deal, but he missed nearly two full seasons with injuries
and a suspension and had a third hampered by an ankle injury and a torn
ACL. Arian Foster missed 23 games due to injuries over three
years during his extension with the Texans. Chris Johnson averaged 5.0 yards per carry in the three
years before his extension and 4.1 yards per carry in the three years after. DeMarco
Murray lasted one year in Philadelphia before turning into a
salary dump. Doug Martin was
one of the league's worst running backs after signing his extension with the
Bucs. DeAngelo Williams never topped 1,000 yards after signing
a massive deal to stay in Carolina.
Marshawn Lynch is probably the best-case scenario for a
contract extension after this current collective bargaining agreement was
signed, but he's the exception to the rule.
3. Availability is a concern. Paying something
in the range of $15 million per year to a great running back is one thing.
Paying that much to a back who isn't on the field is lighting money on fire,
and there are legitimate concerns about the new Jet's ability to line up for 16
games. He has done that only once in his pro career, although Bell would have
made it twice in five tries if Mike Tomlin hadn't sat him for a meaningless
Week 17 game in 2017 against the Browns.
Excluding that rest game, Bell has missed 16 games over five
NFL seasons with various injuries, most notably a torn MCL. The ailments also
prevented him from contributing to Pittsburgh's playoff runs in 2014 and 2015.
He also has been suspended twice by the NFL, first for a DUI arrest, and then
for missing multiple drug tests. He had the latter suspension knocked down from
four games to three, which would then mean that a subsequent suspension would
only count as a four-game penalty as opposed to a 10-game ban, but any team
acquiring Bell would be worried about the possibility of another suspension.
4. There aren't many teams that need running back help
right now. When you consider that Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman and Jay Ajayi are all still free agents, the running back
market is flooded with supply against limited demand. How many teams really
have a hole?
I saw only four teams that could justify making a serious
play for Bell because they need a starting running back: the Jets, Raiders,
Buccaneers and Washington, who don't really have the cap space to add Bell
after giving Landon Collins a deal with significant money in Years 2
and 3. The Raiders spent their cash on hand on Antonio Brown, Lamarcus
Joyner and Trent Brown.
The Bucs might still believe in 2018 second-rounder Ronald Jones,
just as Washington will likely try to turn things over to Derrius Guice.
There were other teams that might have been willing to cut
their incumbent starter and replace them with Bell, and according to ESPN's
Adam Schefter, one nearly did. The 49ers went after Bell in a move that would
have seen them theoretically cut McKinnon before ever playing a game with the
team. Bell is a better back than the former Vikings backup, and the Niners
would have had the money to make the move, but Kyle Shanahan's offense simply
does not require an expensive running back to succeed, and we have more than
two decades of history as proof.
Other teams that were rumored to be involved didn't make
sense. The Ravens are too smart to pay an enormous premium for a running back.
The Eagles have repeatedly saved money at the halfback position under GM Howie
Roseman in recent years to invest elsewhere. I'm a little surprised that teams
such as the Bills and Texans didn't make a run at Bell to try to replace McCoy
or Lamar Miller, respectively, but by Tuesday afternoon, it felt
like the Jets were mostly negotiating against themselves.
They always made the most sense as the likeliest suitor for
Bell. They had a ton of cap space and a general manager who was desperate to
spend it to keep his job. Mike Maccagnan has a history of paying running backs,
although those signings generally haven't moved the needle. New York needed to
upgrade with Bilal Powell hitting
free agency and Isaiah
Crowell finishing 46th out of 47 backs by Football Outsiders' measure of success
rate.
The Jets' goal this offseason was to build a better
infrastructure around Sam Darnold,
and Bell was the natural final piece. They hired an offensive head coach in
Adam Gase, signed slot receiver Jamison
Crowder, and traded for Raiders guard Kelechi
Osemele. They probably need to add a center after missing out
on Matt Paradis, and tight end is still a question mark, but in
the Jets' efforts to find weapons for Darnold, Bell is a considerable upgrade
on the backs they have.
These moves will take a lot of pressure off Darnold to make
plays downfield. When healthy, Crowder is a valuable slot receiver and a source
of relatively easy yardage. Bell's utility as a receiver is well-known; while
the claims that he amounts to a No. 2 wideout were overblown at the time in 2017, he's certainly one of the
most effective receiving backs in football.
Gase struggled to figure out his running back situation in
Miami, repeatedly stumbling between options. He started his tenure by trying to
sign Anderson to an offer sheet that the Broncos matched. The Dolphins then
signed Foster and built a four-back rotation before turning things over to
Ajayi, who broke out in a massive way. One year later, the Dolphins grew
frustrated with their culture and traded Ajayi to the Eagles to try to fix it.
Ajayi was such a problem there that he won a Super Bowl.
Next, Gase turned the job over to a timeshare between Kenyan Drake and Damien
Williams before eventually giving the full-time gig to Drake,
who carried the ball 91 times for 444 yards over the final five games of the
2017 season. Dolphins fans were excited about the idea of a full season from
Drake as the starter, only for Miami to sign Frank Gore and
give him 156 carries to Drake's 120.
Now, though, the story is set in stone before the opener
even begins. Gase will plug in Bell and worry about the rest of his roster. I
would be worried about possible friction down the line if Bell struggles and
Gase is still coach, but the Jets didn't shell out this sort of money to have
their star sit on the sidelines. He's going to get a heavy workload, with
occasional rest provided from third-year back Elijah
McGuire.
There will naturally be speculation that the Jets did this
for promotional purposes. They might have upped their offer after the
embarrassment of losing Anthony Barr back
to the Vikings because he "felt sick" about joining the Jets. They might
have wanted to win the war in the New York papers against the Giants, although
they couldn't have known that the Giants would cede competitiveness to them by
trading away Odell Beckham Jr. hours before Bell announced his pact.
I don't think those factors ended up mattering all that
much. The Giants ran themselves into the ground without the Jets' help. The
Jets shouldn't spend money on a running back because a would-be edge rusher
didn't end up taking their cash after all. New York can now go into the draft
with a reasonable shot of coming away with Nick Bosa, given that the Cardinals appear to be looking
at Kyler Murray with the No. 1 overall pick, while the 49ers
just signed their Leo rusher by trading for Dee Ford.
Adding Bosa or Josh Allen would
plug the team's biggest remaining hole on defense.
In the end, Bell and the Jets are a marriage of convenience.
Maccagnan needed to add weapons for his young quarterback, but there weren't
exciting-enough wideouts on the market for the Jets to displace Robby
Anderson. A running back will do. Bell unquestionably wanted more
money than this, but in the absence of a massive deal, he'll come away with
merely life-changing money. Amid a two-day frenzy in which players such
as Billy Turner and Justin
Coleman were coming away with stunningly large deals, Bell's
contract is one of the first in this free-agent period to come in short of
expectations. He will have to defy history to do the same in New York.
NYG TRADES WR BECKHAM JR. TO CLE
Browns get: WR Odell Beckham Jr.
Giants get: 2019 first- and third-round picks and S Jabrill Peppers
Browns grade: A
Giants grade: D+
I went longer on the OBJ trade -- and why the Browns won --
so read the full analysis here.
TUESDAY, MARCH 12
RODGER
SAFFOLD, G, TENNESSEE
TITANS
The deal: Four years, $44 million with $22.5 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
Once a frustrating left tackle and very nearly a Raider, Saffold finishes his nine-year stint
with the Rams as one of the best guards in football. Although the 30-year-old
hasn't made it to the Pro Bowl, he probably deserved to make it to at least one
of the two most recent events, even if the Super Bowl would have precluded him
from playing in this past year's gala. Saffold struggled to stay healthy
earlier in his career, but the former second-round pick has missed only one
game due to injury the past three seasons.
There's always going to be danger of a free agent leaving
the protective cocoon of Sean McVay and the Rams and looking worse in the
process, but Saffold was effective even before McVay arrived in L.A. In joining
the Titans, Saffold will become part of what will be one of the most
expensively assembled lines in the league. Taylor Lewan is
on a five-year, $80 million deal. Josh Kline re-signed
last year for four years and $26 million. Center Ben Jones is
in the final year of a four-year, $17.5 million pact. Right tackle Jack Conklin is
still on a rookie deal, but he was drafted with the eighth overall selection.
The Titans still might add another guard to push Kline, who struggled in 2018,
to the bench or off the roster. Marcus
Mariota can't claim that the Titans haven't gifted him with
offensive line help.
BRADLEY ROBY,
CB, HOUSTON TEXANS
The deal: One year, $10 million
Grade: B
With the Texans losing Kareem
Jackson to free agency and Johnathan
Joseph turning 35 next month, Houston needed to address its
cornerback situation. In part, that's because it doesn't trust the cornerback
it invested in last offseason, since Aaron Colvin ended
the season as a healthy scratch in the playoff loss to the Colts. You have to
figure the Texans will try to restore Colvin to the slot corner role in 2019,
but they needed to find at least one cornerback this offseason.
I like the addition of Roby, who looked to be one of the
league's most promising young cornerbacks before a frustrating 2018. I would
have preferred the Texans to come away with at least an option year to go with
this one-year pact, but the $10 million price tag is reasonable for a
26-year-old cornerback who has missed just one game in five seasons and looked
to be ascending for most of his career.
DEVANTE
PARKER, WR, MIAMI
DOLPHINS
The deal: Two years, up to $13 million
Grade: B-
Have you ever watched a sitcom play the "will they or
won't they?" game with a would-be couple for so long that you get sick of
waiting to find out what will happen? That's where I am with Parker and the
Dolphins, who have seemingly spent the past two seasons about to
move on from their frustrating-yet-talented former first-round pick.
When teams change personnel departments, they make a habit
of moving on from the old regime's difficult draft picks, to whom they have no
attachment. Somehow, in this case, the arrival of coach Brian Flores & Co.
has strangely managed to get Parker an extra life. Parker wasn't going to be
worth his fifth-year option, but the Dolphins restructured the contract into a
two-year deal, which gives him a chance to prove himself with the team that
drafted him one last time.
LAMARCUS
JOYNER, S, OAKLAND
RAIDERS
The deal: Four years, $42 million with $16.7 million guaranteed at signing
Grade: B
The longtime Rams safety will stay in California for one
more year before moving to Nevada, as Joyner was able to stay within a short
flight of Los Angeles by signing with the Raiders. It was clear that the Rams
were going to move on from their most recent franchise-tagged player this
offseason for cap reasons after signing Eric Weddle,
and though the market was flush with free safeties, Joyner was able to quickly
find a new home.
Given what other safeties are getting, this is a reasonable
deal for Oakland. The most similar safety to Joyner in this pool is Tyrann
Mathieu, who has a more significant injury history. Mathieu got a
maximum of $42 million over three years from the Chiefs, and Joyner got $42
million over four from the Raiders. The guaranteed figure suggests that this is
a two-year pact, which is just fine for a player who turns 29 in November.
With that said it's worth remembering that Joyner struggled
to find an effective home in the Rams' defense for the first three seasons of
his career before Wade Phillips marched into town and kept him at free safety.
The Raiders will have to be similarly disciplined with the 5-foot-8 Joyner, who
is useful as a center fielder and as an occasional slot corner against certain
matchups. In a division with Patrick
Mahomes and Philip Rivers,
you can understand why they might want to try to protect against slot receivers
and deep passes.
MATT PARADIS, C, CAROLINA
PANTHERS
The deal: Three years, $27 million
Grade: B+
Panthers fans might have been worried about the pivot after
longtime starter Ryan Kalil retired
this offseason, but the Panthers should be in excellent shape with Paradis, who
quietly matured into one of the league's best centers in Denver. The former
sixth-round pick won a Super Bowl with the Broncos in 2015 and played under
three offensive coordinators during his four years as a starter, so he should be
able to get with coordinator Norv Turner's offense quickly.
From the Panthers' perspective, this deal has to be
considered a victory at a position of need. Paradis is older than most
first-time free agents and turns 30 in October, so it's good that Carolina was
able to keep this to a three-year pact. In a market in which Mitch Morse's four-year deal averaged $11.1 million per
season, the Panthers managed to keep Paradis below the top free agents from
last year's center class at $9 million per season.
Paradis is still recovering from the
fractured fibula that ended his 2018 season, but unless there's something
sneaky about this deal, it looks like an excellent move for general manager
Marty Hurney and Carolina.
ANTHONY BARR,
LB, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The deal: Five years, $67.5 million with $33 million guaranteed
Grade: C-
Few star players seem to oscillate more from week to week
and season to season than Barr, who has made the Pro Bowl four consecutive
times despite seemingly failing to win over Vikings fans and even his own
coaching staff for stretches of time. He was downright bad for stretches in
2016, which ended with Coach Mike Zimmer criticizing his star linebacker
for coasting in games. Barr had a huge bounce-back season in 2017,
which led to Zimmer calling Barr "my guy" and a target for an extension in
August 2018, but Barr was brutally exposed during the nationally televised loss
to the Rams in Week 4 last season. He allowed three of Jared Goff's
five touchdowns that day, two of which came with him isolated against Rams wide
receivers.
It isn't Barr's fault that he wasn't able to cover Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods
in space, but it's a reminder of how difficult it can be to carve out the right
role for the linebacker, who was a fullback at UCLA before converting to
defense. He's such an incredible athlete that you might be able to get by with
him covering a wideout in an emergency. Few defenders have the size and
strength to hold up as a strong-side linebacker and the silky fluidity to
challenge left tackles as a pass-rusher.
At the same time, though, the Vikings haven't used Barr as
an edge rusher frequently. Blessed with Everson
Griffen, Brian Robison and
later Danielle Hunter on the edge, most of Barr's 13.5 sacks
have come off the line of scrimmage. Zimmer has been able to turn Barr loose
with the threat of overload blitzes and terrified opposing quarterbacks with
double A-gap pressure. He has picked up at least one sack as a spy and has been
used as a "green dog" blitzer, coming in late when Barr sees that his
man is staying in as a pass-blocker.
The numbers suggest that Barr is an effective pass-rusher in
his current role, surely owing to that athleticism. There have been 326 players
who have rushed the quarterback 400 or more times since Barr entered the league
in 2014. He has 499 pass-rush attempts, while stars such as Von Miller and Chandler
Jones have more than 2,200. He has taken down opposing quarterbacks
once every 37 pass-rush tries, which is the 15th-best rate in football in that
time.
It's very good, but it's in line with the rates posted by
less athletic linebackers such as Demario Davis (33.4
attempts per sack), Avery
Williamson (36.4) and Jamie Collins (a league-best 28.5), none of whom was paid
on his pass-rushing potential. Barr reportedly has significant sack incentives
built into the contract he is expected to sign to stay with the Vikings, so
it's clear that he's hoping to rush the passer more frequently on this new
deal.
The Vikings probably had to hand him those incentives to
lure him back from the Jets, given that he reportedly agreed to a deal with New
York before changing his mind Tuesday and agreeing to terms with the Vikings.
Minnesota is set on paper with Griffen and Hunter on the edges, but there's at
least a theoretical chance that it could cut Griffen and move Barr into a role
as a regular edge rusher.
If the Vikings don't turn Barr into a regularly impactful
pass-rusher, though, it's hard to see him returning significant excess value on
this deal as an off-ball linebacker. Those players get paid less than edge
rushers, and the Vikings were forced to value Barr like an edge rusher to keep
him around. Given that they are already under cap constraints after
signing Kirk Cousins and are reportedly about to hand Adam Thielen a
well-deserved raise, they're going to have to cut players who might be more
impactful to get their roster settled for 2019.
JORDAN HICKS,
LB, ARIZONA CARDINALS
The deal: Four years, $36 million with $20 million guaranteed
Grade: C-
Hicks has a $12 million signing bonus, so the $9 million in
dead money that would come after releasing him in Year 1 suggests that this is
at least a two-year pact. He should take home something in the $18-$20 million
range in the first two years of that deal, and while he can be a talented
player, injuries are an enormous concern for the former Eagles starter. Hicks
has missed 19 games in four seasons and completed just one 16-game season
(2016).
He recorded seven interceptions in his first 24 games, and a
Cardinals team that picked off seven passes all season in 2018 might look at
his past tape and hope to come away with a linebacker who can drop into
coverage and steal a couple passes per season. Hicks has no interceptions in
the ensuing 19 games, but on those seven picks, he showed great ball skills.
Look at this diving pick against Eli Manning!
If he can force a few takeaways per season and stay healthy, the Cardinals will
be happy with how this turns out. I understand that upside exists, but Hicks'
history suggests that it's unlikely to show itself for long stretches of time
in Arizona.
TY NSEKHE,
OT, BUFFALO BILLS
The deal: Two years, $14.5 million with $7.7 million guaranteed
Grade: B+
There's a lot to like with Buffalo signing Nsekhe, who was
the swing tackle on an injury-hit Washington line last season. The Bills aren't
making an enormous commitment to the 33-year-old tackle, given his age, but
they did get what amounts to a second-year option if the former Arena League
lineman doesn't impress in a starting role. The Bills have a need at tackle,
and while I thought general manager Brandon Beane might target former Panthers
tackle Daryl Williams, Nsekhe should immediately step in as a starter
at one of the two tackle spots.
Dion Dawkins struggled
in 2018, his first full season as the starter on the left side, while Nsekhe
was impressive when filling in for the injured Trent
Williams at left tackle. During his four seasons in Washington,
Nsekhe started 16 games and allowed just five sacks, per Stats LLC.
He notably handled Jadeveon
Clowney when Washington faced the Texans last season.
There are two concerns keeping this from being an A grade.
One is Nsekhe's propensity for penalties. He recorded seven on just 377 snaps a
year ago and has 15 across 1,226 offensive snaps from his four seasons in
Washington. I would be worried about the penalties popping up in Buffalo,
especially given how frequently Josh Allen
is inclined to scramble out of the pocket to try to make plays.
As Damien
Woody noted on Twitter, Nsekhe's offensive line coach in Washington
was Bill Callahan, who might very well be the best in football. The Bills just
hired new offensive line coach Bobby Johnson, who has been an assistant offensive
line coach and a tight ends coach in years past but will be running an
offensive line room himself for the first time as an NFL coach.
LATAVIUS
MURRAY, RB, NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
The deal: Four years, $14.4 million
Grade: D
Murray's deal has been seen as proof that Mark Ingram's
time with the Saints is coming to a close, and given that the former
first-rounder is coming off of a PED suspension and turns 30 in December, I can
understand why the Saints would move on. I'm not quite as clear as to why the
Saints feel the need to continue paying a premium for the guy who will serve as
their secondary back behind Alvin Kamara.
In four years as a regular with the Raiders and Vikings,
Murray has been an adequate back, if a below-average starter. While his most
memorable play is still the 90-yard run he put on the Chiefs in a 24-20 Raiders
win on national television during his rookie season, Murray hasn't been a
big-play back. He has one run of more than 50 yards and three of more than 40
yards in the past four seasons.
Great! The Saints don't need a big-play back with Kamara
around. They just need someone who can run between the tackles and keep the
offense on schedule, right? Well, Murray hasn't been exciting there, either. In
his career, just 34.6 percent of his rushes have increased his team's chances
of scoring points on their respective drives by ESPN's expected points model.
There are 33 backs with 500 carries or more in that time, and the only ones
worse than Murray by this metric are Alfred Blue and Isaiah
Crowell.
The Saints once got excellent production out of players such
as Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas, each of whom was signed as an undrafted free
agent. Kamara was a third-round pick. It's extremely likely that they would be
able to find a useful power back for close to the minimum in free agency or in
the later rounds of the draft, especially given how deadly their passing game
has been for a decade. New Orleans isn't going to be paying a huge amount for
Murray, but it could easily save a couple million dollars here and apply it to
a position at which it can't feel as confident about finding useful
contributors for cheap.
JOHN BROWN,
WR, BUFFALO BILLS
The deal: Three years, $27 million
Grade: B
Josh Allen has
his deep threat. Brown impressed in the first half of a one-year, $5 million
deal with the Ravens last season, as the former Cardinals standout racked up
558 yards and four touchdowns through the first seven games. Brown went quiet
for the final three weeks of Joe Flacco's
run with the Ravens, though, and once Lamar Jackson entered
the lineup, he disappeared. The 28-year-old caught just eight passes for 114
yards on 30 pass attempts from Jackson.
Jackson was 30th in the league on deep passes (16-plus yards
downfield), posting a 56.7 QBR. Flacco was 31st. Cam Newton,
who had a shoulder injury preventing him from throwing downfield for the second
half of the season, was 32nd. Allen was 33rd, as the highly touted Wyoming
product posted a 26.6 Total QBR and a 45.1 passer rating on deep attempts. He
did eventually find a bit of a connection with undrafted free agent Robert Foster,
though Brown would presumably end up taking away snaps from Foster in the
lineup.
Brown was also healthy after shuffling in and out of the
lineup for two years with a cyst on his spine and injuries to his hamstring,
quadriceps, and toe. He was diagnosed with the sickle-cell trait during his
time in Arizona, which might impact how quickly he heals from injuries. In a
market in which slot receivers are getting $9 million per season, though, his
deal is reasonable. It's also one where the grade would shift based on the
guarantee.
If the Bills only guaranteed $9 million or so of this
contract, this would be a B+ deal. If the Bills guaranteed $16 million and
basically made this a two-year pact, I would lean more toward a B-. Either way,
this is a high-upside signing for a Bills team that needed one for Allen's
sake.
COLE BEASLEY,
WR, BUFFALO BILLS
The deal: Four years, $29 million with $14 million guaranteed
Grade: C
I'm not as enthused about the addition of Beasley, who is
signed to what appears to be more realistically a two-year deal with an annual
average salary of about $7 million per season. The former undrafted free agent
wasn't particularly effective during his most recent contract extension with
the Cowboys. He ranked fifth in the league in receiving DVOA during Dak Prescott's
rookie season in 2016, but he didn't post impressive efficiency numbers in
2015, 2017 or 2018.
Individual DVOA can be a flawed statistic, but Beasley has
to walk a tightrope to stay valuable given that he naturally doesn't offer much
as a downfield threat. If he posts a catch rate of 57 percent, as he did in
2017, it's impossible to play him. In the mid-70s -- where Beasley was in 2016
and 2018 -- is far more palatable.
I'd be a little worried about aging, since the research I've
done on defensive backs suggests that smaller players struggle more frequently
after turning 30 than larger defenders, and it wouldn't shock me if the same
thing were true for shorter wideouts. The 5-foot-8 Beasley can't afford to lose
a step of agility. He'll be a useful safety valve for Allen, but better
franchises develop slot receivers from picks late in the draft or out of
undrafted free agency. Beasley has not been a difference-maker in the same way
that Brown has been when healthy.
ZA'DARIUS SMITH, LB, GREEN BAY
PACKERS
The deal: Four years, $66 million with a $20 million signing bonus
Grade: D+
Smith was a minor breakout candidate going into 2017. He
racked up 16 quarterback knockdowns to go with a mere 3.5 sacks that season,
which usually hints at an increase the following year. Indeed, in a bigger
role, Smith pieced together an impressive contract year with 8.5 sacks and 25
knockdowns, leading him to this big deal with Green Bay.
This isn't the first time the Ravens have had a backup break
out with a big sack total in the fourth year of his career. In 2012, Paul
Kruger had nine sacks and then signed a big contract with the Browns. Kruger
did put together an 11-sack season, but he recorded a total of 8.5 sacks in his
three other post-Ravens campaigns. In 2014, Pernell
McPhee impressed with 7.5 sacks and 26 knockdowns, leading him
to sign a multiyear deal with the Bears. Injuries sapped McPhee's
effectiveness, and he has generated 14 sacks in four subsequent seasons.
Smith is closer to McPhee than he is to Kruger, which is
good. I also like his upside more than Preston Smith's.
The Packers also just paid Za'Darius $16.5 million per season, which is a
staggering amount of money for a player who has one year of notable production
as a pass-rusher. Trey Flowers,
who has been a far more productive player, just took home something in the
ballpark of $17 million per season. Chandler
Jones and Melvin Ingram average
$16.5 million on their extensions.
If the average annual salary here is
true -- and that's always a dangerous assumption before the specific contract
details are out -- this is simply too much money. Smith's representation tweeted that Smith
will take home $34.5 million over two seasons, though, which is
probably close to what the practical guarantee will be on this contract. Smith
needs to produce 25 sacks over those two seasons to make the math work on this
for the Packers, and he hasn't yet been at that level as a pro.
SHELDON RICHARDSON, DT, CLEVELAND
BROWNS
The deal: Three years, $39 million with $21.5 million guaranteed
Grade: B+
When I previewed the Browns' offseason last month, two of my
five moves were to upgrade the defensive line by adding an edge rusher and an
interior disruptor to complement Myles Garrett and Larry
Ogunjobi. I suggested that the Browns look at a duo of Justin
Houston and Ndamukong Suh,
but general manager John Dorsey did just fine with his own additions and went
younger. After trading for Giants edge rusher Olivier
Vernon, Dorsey filled out his defensive line by signing Richardson
to a three-year deal.
This is a huge upgrade on Trevon Coley,
who started for the Browns at defensive tackle in each of the past two seasons
and will now likely move into a reserve role. Richardson has been routinely
productive as an interior rusher and in 2018 recorded his third season with 15
or more quarterback knockdowns in six tries. He has underperformed his
knockdown totals a bit, with 23.5 career sacks to show for his 76 hits, but
Richardson is a very good interior pass-rusher, if not a top-tier option
like Fletcher Cox or Aaron Donald.
There's too much talent involved here to really dislike this
move much. The only complaints I can muster are minor. You might have hoped for
a more stout run defender at the point of attack to play next to Ogunjobi, who
is probably best as a Geno Atkins-style
penetrating tackle. Richardson might not be asked to try to get into the
backfield quite as frequently during this deal, which is a place where he
excels, but I'm confident the Browns will find pass-rushing opportunities for
both of their interior linemen. Richardson also had significant off-field
issues earlier in his career, although that hasn't been an issue in recent
years. This is realistically a two-year deal, so the Browns don't even have
significant exposure if things go south.
ADRIAN AMOS,
S, GREEN BAY PACKERS
The deal: Four years, $37 million
Grade: B-
After attempting to sign away cornerback Kyle Fuller from
the Bears last offseason, the Packers finally stole a piece of the secondary
from their divisional rivals. They traded Ha Ha
Clinton-Dix in October and moved longtime cornerback Tramon
Williams into the free safety spot, where the 35-year-old did
surprisingly well for a veteran moved into a new role out of desperation in
midseason. A rash of injuries in the secondary left the Packers starting street
free agents Eddie Pleasant and Ibraheim Campbell in games during the second half. It was
a mess.
While Amos can play either safety spot, my suspicion is that
he'll primarily end up playing free safety for the Packers, who have Kentrell
Brice and Josh Jones
to compete for the strong safety spot. There's always a risk of adding one
piece from a great defense and hoping he'll be the same player in a lesser
unit, but the Packers might not be far off from above-average cornerback play
if Jaire Alexander continues to improve after an impressive
rookie season across from Josh Jackson and Kevin King.
(Amos also helps give Green Bay the most alliterative defensive backfield in
football.)
Amos hasn't had the sort of breakout, takeaway-laden season
that ex-teammates Fuller and Eddie Jackson had
in 2018. He hasn't deflected a million passes or forced a bunch of fumbles.
It's a bit of a surprise to see him earn north of $9 million per year, but he's
a solid, versatile safety who will allow the Packers to disguise more of what
they want to do before the snap and give them the flexibility to bring in a
more specific sort of free or strong safety if they choose to upgrade at the
other spot in the draft. He also doesn't turn 26 until April, so Green Bay
should be getting his peak seasons.
BILLY TURNER,
G, GREEN BAY PACKERS
The deal: Four years, $28 million
The grade: D
A penny for Ted Thompson's thoughts. The longtime Packers
general manager famously avoided free agency to the chagrin of some Packers
fans, with the David Byrne lookalike preferring to build through the
draft and rack up compensatory picks. The Packers tiptoed in the other
direction last offseason under new GM Brian Gutekunst by signing Jimmy Graham and Muhammad Wilkerson, but after sprinting into free agency on
Tuesday with four signings, the game has officially changed.
In the case of Turner, that's not for the better. It's difficult
to see Thompson making this sort of move. Turner was a project coming out of
North Dakota State when the Dolphins took him in the third round of the 2014
draft, and he struggled in a season starting at right guard before Miami
released him in 2016. Turner caught on with the Ravens practice squad and then
made his way to Denver, where he spent two years as a reserve or on injured
reserve before being forced into the lineup in 2018.
With the help of a highly regarded offensive line coach in
Sean Kugler, who is now in Arizona, Turner looked well in his return to the lineup?
He filled in at both right tackle and left guard while starting 11 games, and
Stats LLC credited him
as responsible for 3.5 sacks. Turner committed only two penalties in
those 11 starts, which is reasonably impressive, too. The Broncos were hit by
injuries along their line and still managed to run the ball effectively,
finishing fifth in rush offense DVOA.
Before the 2018 season, Turner looked like a
replacement-level lineman. Now, the 27-year-old looks like he might be a useful
utility lineman, although you wouldn't really want to plug Turner in and count
on him as a starter. The Packers are giving Turner $11 million in the first
year of this deal, which values Turner as a surefire starter, likely at guard.
Green Bay needed to upgrade on Justin McCray,
but it's unclear whether Turner's lone competent season as a pro will translate
without Kugler in the mix. It's also a change from a Packers organization that
has been drafting and developing guards effectively for seemingly decades.
Would a reunion with T.J. Lang (if healthy) at a much lower price point have
made more sense?
Given that the Packers have four top-75 picks and just spent
heavily on their biggest defensive weaknesses, could they have found a similarly
promising prospect in the draft for far less? Turner is too expensive of a
lottery ticket.
PRESTON SMITH,
OLB, GREEN BAY PACKERS
The deal: Four years, $52 million with $16 million guaranteed at signing
Grade: C-
One of two pass-rushers named Smith to sign with the Packers
on Tuesday; Preston has had an interesting four-year career across from Ryan Kerrigan in
Washington. He produced eight sacks on 305 pass-rushing opportunities as a
rookie, which seemed to hint that the second-round pick held serious potential
as a breakout star.
Since then, Smith has been closer to good than great. He has
stayed healthy and started 48 games, but he has racked up only 16.5 sacks in
the ensuing three seasons across 1,130 pass rushes, which means he has
generated sacks nearly half as frequently as he did during that rookie
campaign. Smith's 49 knockdowns over that time suggest a slightly more
optimistic approach, given that they would predict a 22-sack total, but Smith's
cumulative three-year production is in the same ballpark with guys like Chris Long, Lorenzo
Alexander and longtime Packers stalwart Clay Matthews.
Matthews is a free agent, and the Packers made it clear he
won't be coming back as an edge rusher with their signings on Tuesday. Along
with the Za'Darius Smith signing, the Packers will be using their
two Smiths to replace Matthews and soon-to-be free agent Nick Perry.
I understand the desire to move on from disappointing
veterans and upgrade the edge rush, and there's certainly upside here, given
that both Smiths are 26. At the same time, though, the Packers are paying
something north of $20 million per season to two players who haven't produced a
single nine-sack season in eight tries. They both benefited from playing
alongside excellent talent and rarely saw double-teams.
Most importantly, the Packers are making
these moves in a year in which they have two first-round picks in a draft full
of edge-rushing talent. Its possible Green Bay looked at the draft crop and
didn't see impactful players falling to them at picks 12 or 30, but most other
organizations don't seem to feel that way about this year's class. It's not an
optimal use of resources to take expensive swings at young contributors with
upside when the Packers already were well-positioned to take much cheaper
swings at promising players. Adding one edge rusher in free agency made sense,
but two is probably overkill.
C.J. MOSLEY,
LB, NEW YORK JETS
The deal: Five years, $85 million with $51 million in guarantees
Grade: C-
I didn't think Mosley would actually leave Baltimore. The
Ravens have lost players they wanted to keep such as Dannell Ellerbe and Kelechi
Osemele, but Mosley was the successor to Ray Lewis! He's a
26-year-old linebacker with four Pro Bowl appearances in his first five
seasons. Those guys turn into Hall of Famers at a scary pace. Even if you don't
think Mosley is necessarily on that track, this is the most damaging free agent
the Ravens have lost in a while.
It's an enormous decision from new general manager Eric
DeCosta, in his first offseason running things after Ozzie Newsome retired, to
drop out of the bidding for Mosley. Good organizations generally set a price
tag on players or positions, though, and this is an absolutely astronomical
deal for an interior linebacker. We're still waiting on the specifics, but
Mosley will have a $17 million average annual salary at a position in which
nobody else was even topping $12.5 million before Kwon
Alexander hit $13.5 million yesterday.
To put this in context, consider that the two biggest
signings at inside linebacker during the last free-agent period were Anthony
Hitchens and Demario Davis,
who left for the Chiefs and Saints, respectively. Mosley is a better player
than either, though Davis had a good debut season in New Orleans. Mosley's $17
million average annual salary is equal to what Hitchens ($9 million) and Davis
($8 million) are getting on their respective deals combined.
The third-highest-paid free-agent addition at inside
linebacker a year ago was Avery
Williamson, which is one of the reasons why I find the fit curious
here. The Jets weren't great on defense last season, but they were functional
at inside linebacker, where Williamson held up as a solid run defender and
former first-round pick Darron Lee finally
took a step forward and improved as a cover linebacker and communicator. They
then hired defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, who has spent most of his
career working out of a 4-3 base.
Adding a third inside linebacker who makes record-setting
money, then, doesn't really seem to make sense. If the Jets line up in a 4-3,
they would have Lee as the weakside linebacker, Mosley in the middle, and
Williamson in an unfamiliar role as the strongside option in a year where the Jets
owe him $6 million guaranteed. I don't love that fit.
Let's say they stay in the 3-4, where they would run out
Mosley and Williamson as inside linebackers and keep Jordan
Jenkins, who had seven sacks last season, in his established role as
a 3-4 outside linebacker. The Jets have been linked to edge rushers like Josh Allen in the first round of this year's draft, and
if they grab one, Lee won't have a place to play and would become late-round
trade bait.
With $17 million per year, the Jets could theoretically have
waited a day or two and added multiple starters to their roster, which is
hardly deep with talent. I can understand wanting to add a star like Mosley and
figuring out the fit later, but I don't think this is the best use of the Jets'
resources, especially in a year where the draft holds a ton of front-seven
talent.
I would suspect the Ravens will survive
losing Mosley, although they'll unquestionably take a hit. They'll likely
recoup a third-round compensatory pick for losing the Alabama product, and they
could use the money they saved to re-sign both Matt Judon and Patrick Onwuasor, who are free agents next offseason. They've
also lost a pair of outside linebackers in Terrell Suggs and Za'Darius Smith to go along with free safety Eric Weddle,
and it wouldn't shock me to see them enter into the cut market to go after
someone like Justin
Houston to help cover some of their losses.
DANTE FOWLER
JR., DE/OLB, LOS ANGELES
RAMS
The deal: One year, $12 million with $2 million in possible incentives
Grade: C-
When the Rams created cap space by moving on from John Sullivan and Mark Barron,
it seemed it might be in part to retain one of their defensive linemen. They
badly needed edge-rushing help after their offseason spending spree, and after
trading for Fowler in midseason, the Rams decided to keep him and not Ndamukong Suh.
Fowler's one-year, $12 million deal will give the former third overall pick a
chance to prove himself in advance of free agency.
I'm not sure this contract really does the Rams a ton of
favors, though. One-year deals with significant money for younger players who
haven't yet broken out aren't my favorite. If he fails, you've spent money on a
player who didn't live up to your expectations. (Donte
Moncrief's 2018 deal with the Jags is a good example of this
conundrum.) If the player finally has his standout season, though, you're stuck
either using the franchise tag or letting him walk. Given that future seasons
of NFL contracts aren't necessarily guaranteed, it's always good to try to get
at least a second season on a deal for a young player.
In this case, the Rams probably didn't have that option if
they wanted to bring back Fowler, who would have attracted long-term interest
on the open market. I'm just not sure he was quite as impactful as it seemed a
year ago. Fowler had all of two sacks and five quarterback hits in 220
pass-rushing opportunities with the Rams last season, which isn't impressive
for a player whose team was often ahead and who got to rush alongside Suh and Aaron Donald.
Fowler then added 1.5 sacks and three quarterback hits in
Los Angeles' three-game run to Super Bowl LIII, with the latter figure
including his hit on Drew Brees that
forced a critical interception in overtime of the NFC
Championship Game. That's an absolutely enormous play, of course,
but Fowler had 3.5 sacks and eight hits in 11 games with the Rams. From the
moment he joined the team, L.A. produced a 5.4 percent sack rate and a 28.1
percent pressure rate with him on the field and a 5.7 percent sack rate with a
30.2 pressure percentage with him off of it.
And really, he hasn't been a great pass-rusher at any point
in his career. He was drafted as an athletic freak who the Jags hoped would
eventually turn into their Leo edge rusher, but he had 14.5 sacks in three
years while bouncing around different positions at Florida. After missing his
entire rookie season with a torn ACL, Fowler had only four sacks and 11
knockdowns in his debut campaign in 2016. He did produce a career-high eight
sacks as a rotation rusher on that dominant Jags line in 2017, but it came on
just 10 knockdowns, a rate he wasn't going to be able to keep up. The Jaguars
weren't impressed enough by that total to pick up Fowler's fifth-year option
for 2019, and after generating two sacks in seven games, they dealt him to Los
Angeles.
Everyone sees that Fowler looks like a star, and with a full
training camp under Wade Phillips' tutelage, he might very well fulfill his
potential. Up to this point, though, he hasn't been an impactful NFL player, and
the Rams are paying him close to what they paid Suh -- who had perennially been
impactful -- last season.
MONDAY, MARCH 11
JA'WUAN JAMES,
OT, DENVER BRONCOS
The deal: Four years, $51 million with $32 million guaranteed
Grade: D
This time last year, James' status with the Dolphins
appeared to be on shaky ground after he missed the second half of the 2017
season with a hamstring injury. One report suggested that the Dolphins were
going to release James from his fifth-year option, though that report
turned out to be inaccurate. Another rumor suggested that the Dolphins were
considering dealing James to the Broncos in a deal for running back C.J. Anderson,
whom the Dolphins had previously targeted as a restricted free agent.
James responded in 2018 with his best season. The former
first-round pick suited up for 15 games and committed seven penalties, which
seems like an unimpressive feat until you consider that he averaged 10.2
penalties per 15 games in his first four seasons. Per Stats LLC, James
allowed five sacks,
which is right in line with his career rate when he has played a full season
(or something close to it). I would give him extra credit, given that the Miami
quarterback for a good chunk of the season was Brock
Osweiler, who is not exactly a mobile weapon within the pocket.
There's nothing in James' track record, though, that
suggests he's worthy of this sort of deal. He is now comfortably the
highest-paid right tackle in football, with his $13 million average annual
salary placing him ahead of Lane Johnson ($11.3
million) and Rick Wagner ($9.5
million). Both Johnson and Wagner were far more effective and consistent on
their rookie deals than James was on his.
You almost wonder whether the Broncos are signing James to
play left tackle with the idea of moving Garett Bolles to
the right side given the price tag, but this still wouldn't make sense unless
there were other teams that valued James as a solution on the left side. Right
tackle has been a disaster for Denver under general manager John Elway, where
recent additions such as Donald Stephenson, Menelik Watson and Jared
Veldheer have failed to pan out.
This is paying way over the odds to fix the problem, and I'm
not sure it'll solve things. Given that the Broncos were able to hire legendary
offensive line coach Mike Munchak this offseason to run their offensive line,
it seems like they would have been better off with a cheaper veteran such
as Jermey Parnell and a rookie for Munchak to mold into a
starter.
DEVIN
FUNCHESS, WR, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The deal: One year, $10 million (with an additional $3 million in incentives)
Grade: D+
While some were suggesting that the Colts and their $100
million war chest were going to be big spenders in free agency, it was always
more likely that general manager Chris Ballard's organization would pick its
spots and wait for prices to go down. There are no discounts on day one of the
legal-tampering period. Although Indy did make a signing, it's going to raise
some eyebrows.
It seemed likely that Funchess would have to settle for a
one-year, prove-it deal after the Michigan product was excommunicated from the
Panthers' offense during the second half of 2018, but I didn't expect him to
get this sort of cash. If the Colts were willing to pay this much for a
one-year deal on a young player, they should have been able to toe the line and
get an option year to use if Funchess returned to form. There's always a middle
ground -- maybe the second year would void if Funchess had a 1,500-yard season
or something truly spectacular -- but speculative one-year deals for young
players just don't make a lot of sense.
The closest equivalent to this last offseason was the
one-year, $9.6 million deal Donte
Moncrief signed with the Jaguars. I gave that deal an F for
many of the same reasons. I'm a little more sanguine on Funchess' deal, if only
because Funchess was better at his pre-free-agency peak (in 2017) than Moncrief
was in his (2015). Funchess should take over the Dontrelle
Inman role in Indy's lineup, but I wonder if the Colts would've
been better off re-signing Inman at a lower rate.
KAREEM
JACKSON, DB, DENVER
BRONCOS
The deal: Three years, $33 million with $23 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
Where will Jackson line up for the Broncos? The Texans were
planning to move him to safety last season before moving the long-time
cornerback to his original position because of an injury crisis. The good news,
in a way, is that the Broncos need help at cornerback and safety with Bradley Roby a
free agent and Darian Stewart off the roster.
At this price, Jackson is making mid-tier free-agent money
at corner, which isn't bad for a player who has generally been an average-to-good
player on the outside as a pro. My guess is that the Broncos will start
Jackson, who turns 31 at the beginning of this deal, at cornerback before
moving him to safety by the end of this deal. In a thin cornerback market, even
given that Jackson is on the wrong side of 30, his prior level of play and
relative durability suggest that it wouldn't have been shocking if he had taken
home more than this.
KENNY VACCARO,
S, TENNESSEE TITANS
The deal: Four years, $26 million with $11.5 million guaranteed
Grade: B
Vaccaro had to wait until August to sign a deal with the
Titans last year, and that came only after starter Johnathan
Cyprien tore his ACL in camp. Vaccaro proceeded to steal
Cyprien's job with an impressive season, and the Titans decided to make the
arrangement permanent by giving him a long-term deal.
This contract should lock in Vaccaro as Tennessee's strong
safety through the 2020 season, and though he has his limitations as a player,
this deal should keep Vaccaro in beneficial situations. The Saints seemed to
have visions of Vaccaro using his athleticism to turn into Eric Berry,
but Vaccaro never took that leap into an all-purpose safety. He's best as a
strong safety with the occasional athleticism to jump into coverage on bigger
receivers, like a poor man's Landon
Collins. With Kevin Byard at
free safety, Vaccaro can play that exact role.
ADAM
HUMPHRIES, WR, TENNESSEE
TITANS
The deal: Four years, $36 million
Grade: C-
The Titans needed a slot receiver to play alongside Corey Davis,
but I didn't expect them to shell out $9 million per season for a player who
was possibly the fifth option when everybody was healthy in Tampa Bay.
Humphries is an undrafted free agent, which is the case for many slot
receivers, but the Titans are paying him like he's a precious asset instead of
trusting that they'll be able to find the next Humphries on a rookie deal,
which is what the big brother Patriots would generally do in the same
situation.
Over the past four years, Humphries has turned just 11
percent of the routes he has run in the slot into receptions, which is the
lowest rate in football among wideouts with 100 slot targets or more in that
time. There are things to like -- he has generally stayed healthy, which can be
a rare essence for slot guys -- but Humphries has fumbled six times on 376
touches. He has caught 191 of 270 passes the past three seasons, which is good
for a 70.7 percent catch rate, but the NFL's Next Gen Stats suggest that an
average receiver would have caught ... 190.7 of those passes. He's a decent
wideout, but he hasn't exhibited the sort of ceiling that would make this deal
more tantalizing.
MITCH MORSE,
C, BUFFALO BILLS
The deal: Four years, $44.5 million
Grade: B
The Bills were a mess at center last season, when they
turned to former Bengal Russell
Bodine and found that there was a reason Cincinnati didn't keep
him around. What's interesting is that general manager Brandon Beane presumably
addressed his hole at the pivot by signing Spencer Long to
a three-year, $12.6 million deal earlier this offseason, but he has made a far
larger investment by giving Morse a record annual average salary for a center,
topping the $10.5 million figure Ryan Jensen hit
last offseason.
Long has just $1.2 million in guarantees in his deal, so
it's entirely possible that the Bills plan to use him as a backup or utility
lineman. He has also spent time at guard and the Bills could very well move
Long off center and have him take over for free agent John Miller.
Morse was a tackle in college, and this sort of deal is more typically tackle
money, but it's rare for a team to hand out a deal such as this and expect a
player to change positions in the process.
Morse should be a huge aid for Josh Allen in
terms of helping to set protections in Brian Daboll's offense. The only real
concern with him is injuries, given that he missed nine games in 2017 with a
foot injury and five in 2018 with a concussion. If the Bills carved out
sufficient protections within the guarantees to protect against injuries, it'll
be an even better deal for Buffalo.
NICK FOLES,
QB, JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS
The deal: Four years, $88 million with $50.1 million guaranteed
Grade: C-
In the end, the Jaguars were the only viable landing spot
for the former Super Bowl MVP. In a different year, Foles might have had a bevy
of possible suitors, but five teams drafted quarterbacks in the first round of
last year's draft, and somewhere between two and four quarterbacks are going to
come off the board in Round 1 this April. When the Broncos traded for Joe Flacco and
the Giants dug their head further into the Meadowlands sod in support of Eli Manning,
the Jaguars were the only open chair left.
You would figure that this might have earned the Jaguars a
relative bargain, but despite seemingly negotiating against themselves and with
no other starting jobs currently available, Jacksonville needed to top $50
million in guarantees to reel Foles into their lineup. In a league in which
winning teams are generally built around two quarterback archetypes -- the
above-average passer on a rookie deal and the true superstar making big bucks
-- the Jags are one of the few teams trying to win with something in the
middle.
That hasn't been a winning formula; the only veteran to win
a Super Bowl in this range since the new collective bargaining agreement was
signed is Eli Manning in 2011. (I'm not counting Tom Brady,
who could clearly command far more on the free market than he's received from
the Patriots, if so inclined.) Before him, you have to go back to Brad Johnson
and the 2002 Buccaneers.
It's difficult to see a great fit between Foles and his new
offense, even given that former Eagles quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo will
be taking the reins as offensive coordinator in Jacksonville this season. Tom
Coughlin has wanted to build an offense around running the football, avoiding
giveaways and trusting his defense to make plays. DeFilippo, notably, was just
fired in the middle of his lone season with the Vikings for not running the
football frequently enough to satisfy Mike Zimmer.
Turnovers are going to be an issue. During his two seasons
in Philadelphia with Doug Pederson, Foles threw six interceptions on 296
attempts, which isn't a problem. His ability to protect the football wasn't
quite as impressive. Foles fumbled once every 33 touches during his two-year
return to Philly, which was behind only Lamar Jackson among
passers with 300 touches or more. His career rate is better, but is still below
average for a quarterback who rarely runs with the football. Few bosses are
more sensitive about fumbles than the guy running things in Jacksonville.
Foles also threw nearly 88 percent of his passes out of the
pistol or shotgun during his two seasons with the Eagles, one of the highest
rates in football. The former Air Raid quarterback can play under center, but
it doesn't work to his strengths. Are the Jags going to mold their offense to
Foles? If they do, will that further stifle the running game Coughlin wanted to
foster by using the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft on Leonard Fournette?
There might be a way to make this all work, but this is hardly a plug-and-play
solution in terms of scheme.
The other thing to worry about with Foles is health. The
30-year-old has fallen prey to injuries throughout his pro career. In 2012,
Foles broke his hand after six starts. In 2013, a concussion knocked Foles out
of his second start and cost him a week before the Arizona product returned for
a blistering-hot second half. The following year, Foles fractured his clavicle
in his eighth start of the season. The veteran was benched after nine games
with the Rams, his longest consecutive stretch of starts as a pro. The Jaguars
are paying Foles like he'll start all 16 games, but little evidence says the
former Andy Reid draft pick can pull that off.
The Jaguars can feel good about marking an end to the Blake Bortles era.
Foles is an unquestionable upgrade on the oft-frustrating Bortles, whom the
Jags spent years propping up before finally giving in to reality during the
2018 campaign. Most quarterbacks would have been, though, and they wouldn't
have cost anywhere near as much as Foles did.
Even if we assume that this is a two-year
deal in the $51 million range, which is usually how the Jags structure their
free-agent signings, Foles is going to be an expensive addition at a time when
Jacksonville will be trying to re-sign players like Yannick
Ngakoue and Jalen Ramsey to
extensions. Part of free agency is identifying the right talent to bring in,
but a huge component is identifying the possible market for those players and
bidding accordingly. The Jags didn't execute the latter with this Foles deal.
TYRANN
MATHIEU, S, KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
The deal: Three years, $42 million
Grade: C+
Given the soft safety market of 2018 and the sheer volume of
talented free safeties on the market, I figured we would see the market move
relatively slowly and some of the players would have to settle for one-year
deals. Mathieu had to take a one-year pact from the Texans last year at $7
million, but after a bounce-back season, he isn't settling for anything. We're
still waiting to see the specific guarantee structure of this deal, but it's
safe to assume that Mathieu came away with essentially two guaranteed years in
this contract, just as Sammy Watkins
did on his three-year, $48 million deal last offseason.
There's an interesting fit for Mathieu on the Chiefs roster,
and things could change based on the other moves Brett Veach makes this
offseason. At this point, we know the 26-year-old Mathieu is a player who is
going to be generally effective when healthy, even if he probably isn't going
to hit the lofty heights of that 2015 season. Mathieu still has very good
instincts as a safety, and though the two ACL tears have sapped a bit of his
athleticism, he's probably still good enough to fill in as a competent
cornerback in the slot, especially given how ineffective the Chiefs have been
at corner in recent seasons.
The only real concern with Mathieu is injury, given that the
LSU superstar has those two torn ACLs in his past. Mathieu also missed pro time
with thumb and shoulder injuries and wasn't able to make it through a complete
16-game season in any of his first four campaigns. Mathieu has subsequently run
off 32 consecutive games, which is certainly a promising sign, but the broader
history suggests that there's more risk here than there is for most other
safeties.
Simultaneously, the Chiefs traded for Kendall
Fuller last year in hopes of playing him as a cornerback across
the field, and a subpar season suggested that Fuller's best role might be as a
permanent slot corner. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has nothing in
the cupboard at corner with Steven Nelson and Orlando
Scandrick as free agents, and you might understand the logic of
signing a good safety as opposed to paying up for a mediocre cornerback in a
market that has plenty of the latter. While the Chiefs could very well have
waited out the market and seen which free safety was left standing, Mathieu
and Lamarcus
Joyner were the only two you would want to count on to also
fill in at cornerback on a regular basis.
This can all change if the Chiefs use the Mathieu signing as
a pretense to move on from Eric Berry,
who had the highest average annual salary for a safety in the NFL before
Monday. Berry played all of three regular-season games in the first two years
of his record deal, thanks to a torn Achilles tendon suffered in Week 1 of 2017
and heel pain that kept Berry sidelined for virtually all of the 2018 campaign.
The Chiefs already cut one stalwart in Justin
Houston, and they could move on from Berry this offseason, though it
wouldn't be pretty. Kansas City would likely designate Berry as a post-June 1
release, which would create $9.6 million in cap space while adding $8 million
in dead money to the Chiefs' 2020 cap.
With Berry and Mathieu in the lineup together, the Chiefs
have two safeties capable of playing in the box, the slot or the deep middle.
They also have the most expensive combo of safeties in NFL history on a defense
that has already invested meaningfully at inside linebacker in Anthony
Hitchens, who wasn't effective in his first season with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs cut Houston and are reportedly shopping franchised end Dee Ford because
he isn't a great fit for Spagnuolo's 4-3 defense. Their best defensive lineman
is Chris Jones,
who will move to defensive tackle in the 4-3. At some point, the Chiefs need to
do something about their lack of talent on the outside. You get the feeling
that another move might be coming here, and that should inform how the Mathieu
deal fits.
JUSTIN
COLEMAN, CB, DETROIT LIONS
The deal: Four years, $36 million
Grade: C-
We don't have the guarantees in for this deal, but assuming
that about 50 percent of the contract is guaranteed, this is one of the more
shocking contracts from day one of free agency. Both Bob Quinn and Matt
Patricia were in New England in 2015, when Coleman bounced to the Patriots
after being cut by the Vikings out of camp and played in 10 games. By 2017,
while Patricia was Pats defensive coordinator, he still couldn't keep the Pats
from trading Coleman at the end of camp to the Seahawks for a 2018
seventh-round pick. (Alternatively, he didn't think Coleman was worth keeping
on the roster.) Quinn, who has never plugged his hole at cornerback across
from Darius Slay,
apparently either didn't get a chance to top Seattle's offer or didn't think
Coleman was worth more than a seventh-round pick.
Now, two years later, the same two administrators think
Coleman is worth $9 million per season. To be fair, Coleman has emerged as a
good -- possibly even very good -- slot cornerback for the
Seahawks the past two seasons. The Lions have been an absolute disaster at
cornerback outside of Darius Slay, and the league's moving towards copious
usage of 11 personnel, which is one of the reasons the Ravens gave Tavon Young a
three-year, $25.8 million extension earlier this week. Coleman was a monster
athlete coming out of school, so there's upside here.
At the same time, after Coleman impressed in the slot in
2017, Pete Carroll kept him as the Seahawks' nickelback and preferred to start
rookie fifth-rounder Tre Flowers on
the edge. I'd be a little anxious about Coleman's ability to take regular snaps
as a sideline corner, and if he's exclusive to the slot, Coleman isn't worth $9
million per season. He also spent two seasons playing with Carroll, who might
be the best defensive backs coach in the league, and Coleman won't be able to
take Carroll with him to Detroit.
Again, I think about how the Patriots approach their cornerback
situation. How often has Bill Belichick paid two cornerbacks starting-level
money on multiyear deals over the past few seasons? The Lions unquestionably
hired Patricia and Quinn in the hope that they could mold the next Trey Flowers or
find the next Justin Coleman buried on someone's roster. This isn't that.
TYLER KROFT,
TE, BUFFALO BILLS
The deal: Three years, $18.8 million
Grade: C
The Bills needed a tight end to serve as a weapon for Josh Allen and
his generally bereft receiving corps. What they went for was Kroft, who has
primarily been a blocking tight end in his pro career. The 6-foot-6, 252-pound
Rutgers product did catch 42 passes for 404 yards and six touchdowns during the
2017 season, so there might be some untapped potential here, but nobody on the
planet who hasn't thrown a cruise for themselves is likely to
consistently catch a touchdown once every six receptions. Indeed, Kroft has one
touchdown across 25 other receptions in his three other pro campaigns.
This deal could swing in either direction based on the
guarantee. If Buffalo guaranteed Kroft $7 million or so and it's a one-year
deal to see what he might do in a larger role, it's a reasonable bet. If the
Bills guaranteed Kroft $14 million and plan on standing pat at the position
with him alongside Jason Croom,
they're not doing Allen any favors.
FRANK GORE,
RB, BUFFALO BILLS
The deal: One year, $2 million
Grade: C-
Frank Gore is 35 years old. You would figure we're at the
point where it's basically Super Bowl-or-bust for a guy who might very well end
up in Canton after he retires. Plenty of playoff contenders need a backup
running back who can hold his own in pass protection and provide a veteran
voice in the locker room. So, hours into the legal tampering period, Gore signs
a one-year, $2 million deal with ... the Bills?
It's possible that Gore didn't have much of a market and
simply took the best offer available, but you would figure he might be better
off going the C.J. Anderson route
and waiting for someone to get injured before landing a late-season job for a
contender. Instead, he's off to a Bills team in the middle of a rebuild and
coming off a 6-10 season. The Bills have also suggested that they expect to
keep LeSean McCoy for
another season, so it's not even as if Gore will have a path to a particularly
large role within the offense.
From the Bills' perspective, it's difficult to make sense of
this one as well. The 31-year-old McCoy will be a free agent after the season,
and last year's No. 2 back was Chris Ivory,
who will likely be released after Gore signs in Buffalo. Their starting
quarterback is 22-year-old Josh Allen,
and most of their current other offensive starters for 2019 are 25 or younger.
Why not go after a young back who might break out given a chance in a larger
role? The Bills can still draft a back, but they're not going to get many
touches behind Gore and McCoy. Gore was an effective player for the Dolphins
last season, and he would make sense on this deal for a likely playoff team,
but it's a very strange short-term addition for a Bills offense that needs to
think longer-term.
JAMISON
CROWDER, WR, NEW YORK JETS
The deal: Three years, $28.5 million with $17 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
I like this move for the Jets, who get a weapon at a
position of need for Sam Darnold.
The Jets are likely going to start 2019 with Robby
Anderson and Quincy Enunwa as
their two starting receivers, and while I would be concerned about each of
those guys for different reasons, the Jets needed a slot receiver to take over
for free agent Jermaine
Kearse. The Jets could have gone for a bigger wideout and moved
Enunwa into the slot on a full-time basis, but when I look at the guys who are
available on the outside in this free-agent class, I don't blame them for
taking their chances on an interior wideout.
Crowder can be a quarterback's best friend. As Washington's
slot receiver, he consistently managed to create easy throws for Kirk Cousins.
From 2015 to 2017, Crowder caught 131 passes for 1,615 yards out of the slot,
both of which ranked sixth in the NFL in that time frame. If anything, Washington
probably could have gone to Crowder more, given that he was targeted on just
18.2 percent of his routes out of the slot. Of the 27 wideouts who ran 100 or
more routes out of the slot, only six were targeted less frequently than
Crowder.
However, there are two very meaningful
concerns that might follow Crowder to New York. One is injury. Crowder has been
bothered in two different seasons by nagging hamstring injuries. Last year, he
suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 4, and missed two months of action. He had
an 87-yard game against the Giants in Week 14, but most of that came on a
79-yard touchdown off a drag route with some sloppy tackling while his team was
down 40-8 in the fourth quarter. 2018 was mostly a lost season.
The other issue is fumbling, and Crowder needs to fix it to
become an efficient player. The 25-year-old has fumbled 12 times on 323 pro
touches, which include 86 punt returns. That's one fumble every 26.9 touches,
which is the highest rate in the league among players with 300 touches or more
since 2015. Crowder didn't fumble once during his abbreviated 2018 campaign,
which was a promising start, but he has to keep that up to justify this deal.
TREY FLOWERS,
DE, DETROIT LIONS
The deal: Five years, $80-85 million
Grade: C+
Well, you can't call Flowers underrated anymore. After being
regarded as a quiet superstar around the NFL over the past couple of seasons,
he cashed in with a massive deal on Monday, signing a five-year deal with the
Lions in the ballpark of $17 million per year. We're still waiting on
guarantees, but the 25-year-old was the best pass-rusher left after four teams
used their respective franchise tags to take edge defenders off the market.
Even in an offseason with a draft class full of pass-rushing talent, Flowers
was going to get paid.
In reuniting Flowers with former Patriots defensive
coordinator Matt Patricia, the Lions are adding a pass-rusher who perpetually
looks to be on the cusp of a dominant campaign. After missing virtually all of
his rookie season, he racked up 21 sacks from 2016 to 2018, which is 35th in
the NFL. Over that same time frame, though, Flowers has knocked down opposing
passers 59 times, which is 20th and right in line with the
franchise-tagged DeMarcus
Lawrence (59) and Jadeveon
Clowney (55).
When you throw in the postseason, Flowers has generated 26.5
sacks on 81 knockdowns across 55 games. Historically, pass-rushers will convert
about 45 percent of their knockdowns into sacks, and if Flowers sacked
quarterbacks at that rate, he would have 36.5 sacks over that three-year span.
Edge rushers who underperform their knockdown totals typically regress toward
the mean, and we've seen Flowers come up short only twice in three years, but
the Lions are paying the former fourth-round pick like he's already the
superstar those knockdowns numbers hint he will become.
The Patriots will get by without Flowers, as we know from 18
years of seeing New England shed talented defenders under Bill Belichick, but
they probably need to add at least one more defensive lineman to their roster,
even after trading for Michael
Bennett. With five picks in the first three rounds, the Pats will
likely use at least one of those selections to address the edge. They'll hope
for more out of 2017 third-rounder Derek Rivers,
who was inactive during the Super Bowl win over the Rams.
Because the Patriots always manage to find a solution on
defense, there's a perception that targeting players the Pats let go in free
agency can be a fool's errand. In a vacuum, there's truth to this with any
young talent: If the Patriots really thought Flowers was irreplaceable, they
would franchise their edge rusher or sign him to an extension and push someone else
off the roster. The Patriots manage their cap as well as anyone else in the
league, so they could certainly find a way to afford Flowers if they felt he
was essential to their chances in 2019.
Is it true that teams that sign young starters away from the
Patriots at the end of their rookie deals are throwing their money at players
Belichick doesn't really want? Yes and no. The Cardinals have enjoyed
having Chandler Jones on their roster, although it's worth
noting the Patriots traded their star edge rusher to Arizona in lieu of losing
him in free agency. Asante Samuel went on to have a lengthy, successful second
act with the Eagles and Falcons. Logan Ryan has
been fine for the Titans.
On the other hand, there are plenty of Patriots who haven't
lived up to expectations elsewhere, including Malcolm
Butler, who is Ryan's teammate in Tennessee. Jamie Collins isn't an every-down linebacker for the
Browns. Patrick Chung only lasted one year in Philadelphia before
returning to the Patriots. Defensive backs like Eugene Wilson and Brandon
Meriweather didn't have the same sort of impact outside of Foxborough. Relying
on free agency to add talent to your roster is a risky decision in most cases.
It's no different when adding players from the Patriots.
As always, though, there appears to be a gap between what
Belichick does and what his subordinates do when they get jobs elsewhere.
Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn both come from New England, and
yet, as we suggested in previewing the offseason, here they are
paying top-of-the-market money for a pass-rusher Belichick doesn't feel to be
worth keeping around at that price tag. Flowers would have to turn into Khalil Mack or Von Miller to
provide excess value on this contract.
I don't think I can be too harsh on the Lions for making
this move, though. Flowers is still young and talented enough to justify the
expenditure, and the Lions absolutely, positively needed to add a top edge
rusher. Patricia's defense finished 29th in pass defense DVOA a year ago, and
there aren't any great cornerbacks on the market. Flowers probably won't live
up to this price tag, but he'll also probably be good enough that the Lions
won't regret paying a premium to bring him on board.
LANDON
COLLINS, S, WASHINGTON
The deal: Six years, $84 million with $45 million guaranteed
Grade: C+
Once Collins hit the free-agent market, it wasn't a shock to
think that he might end up staying in the NFC East and signing with Washington.
I picked it as my most plausible destination for Collins last week. The
organization has stockpiled an Alabama defenders, with Jonathan
Allen, Daron Payne, Ryan Anderson and Shaun Dion Hamilton all on the roster before Washington
traded for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix in midseason. The former Packers
defender didn't make much of a mark in Washington, and breakout safety D.J.
Swearinger was cut by the team for his comments on social media
in December, leaving Washington bereft at safety. Oh, and just for good
measure, Collins chose No. 21 in New York to honor his idol, former Washington safety Sean Taylor, who was tragically
killed at the age of 24.
What is shocking, though, is the money. Safety is the
deepest position in this free-agent market, and while most of the options
available are free safeties, box safeties typically don't get paid as much as
center fielders. Collins just blew that line of thinking to smithereens. His
$14 million average annual salary is now the highest for any safety in
football, topping Eric Berry's
$13 million. Among box safeties, while Kam
Chancellor's extension was for $12 million per season, the former
Seahawks star is now practically retired. Reshad Jones is
more of an interchangeable piece, but in terms of pure strong safeties, the
next-largest active deal is probably Tony
Jefferson, who is at $8.5 million per season. This is an enormous
leap for the position at first glance.
If you're going to make a huge bet in free agency, though,
you would want to target a young player with a steady track of record success.
Enter Collins, who only turned 25 in January and already has three Pro Bowls
and one first-team All-Pro nod in four NFL seasons. The 2016 season still
stands out as his best campaign by a comfortable margin, given that he produced
more interceptions, sacks and tackles for loss than Collins did over the
subsequent two seasons combined, but the former second-rounder was better in
2018 than he was in 2017.
Is Collins just a "box safety" in a league built
more and more around the pass? I don't think it's that simple. He isn't the
sort of Earl Thomas-esque player you can just stick into the deep
middle of the field to wipe away seam and post routes. He's not a Lamarcus
Joyner or Tyrann
Mathieu you'll want to line up in the slot against No. 3
wideouts on a regular basis. That's all true.
I also think he's something more than just an eighth man in
the box as a strong safety; Collins's 218-pound frame lets him run with tight
ends other safeties can't physically compete against. He's a sound tackler and
someone who limits completions and throws over the middle of the field. Teams
can stretch him with wheel routes out of the backfield and beat him when he's
isolated in the slot, but he has the playmaking ability to create takeaways
when quarterbacks and offensive weapons are careless with the football. He can
absolutely be a tone-setter. I don't know if that's worth $14 million per
season, but few players this accomplished hit the market at such a young age.
Collins made it here only because the Giants thought he
wasn't worth keeping around, which seems even more curious today. General Manager
Dave Gettleman could have franchised him for the 2019 season at $11.2 million,
and even if the team didn't think Collins was a long-term building block for
the defense, the Giants could have used the tag to explore the trade market for
their starting safety. Given that he will average more than the tag number on a
long-term deal, it's pretty clear he would have had some semblance of a market.
It's a little difficult to figure how a GM who thought a running back was worth
the second overall pick in a draft didn't simultaneously think a box safety was
worth paying a premium to keep around, but Collins will get to meet Saquon
Barkley and the rest of his old teammates twice per season for the
next few years.
BOBBY HART,
T, CINCINNATI
BENGALS
The deal: Three years, $21 million
Grade: D-
It's difficult to find a silver lining in Cincinnati's move
to re-sign Hart, who was cut by the Giants last year amid concerns that he had
quit on the team. (Hart would later deny those claims.) The 24-year-old cleared
waivers and went to injured reserve before signing a one-year deal during the
offseason with the Bengals, who eventually installed the Florida State product
as their starting right tackle.
Here's where would I normally say things went well and led
the Bengals to sign Hart to a long-term deal. That isn't really what happened.
Hart appears to have played pretty poorly in his debut season with the Bengals.
While he stayed healthy and started all 16 games for the first time in his pro
career, the former seventh-round pick allowed 11.5 sacks, per Stats LLC. Hart
also committed 14 penalties, which tied him for fourth in the league. Nine of
those penalties were false starts, which you can spin in either direction; a
Hart supporter could suggest that Hart will cut out the false starts with
experience, while a detractor might find it frustrating that Hart can't manage
to line up and get off the snap on time on a regular basis.
Either way, Hart hasn't shown much
suggesting he's even a competent NFL tackle. Incoming offensive line coach Jim
Turner hand-waved away the concerns about sacks and pressures by
talking about how Hart has played with passion, but the bottoms of NFL rosters
and practice squads are full of players who have passion. It's not hard to find
a player who cares. The Bengals are paying Hart to be an effective NFL lineman,
and he simply isn't one. I can't imagine that Cincinnati guaranteed more than
one season to Hart as part of this three-year pact. Since he is just 24, the
Bengals would be in position to keep Hart around if he does break out, but this
doesn't appear to solve Cincinnati's offensive line woes. If anything, the
signing solidifies them.
TRENT BROWN,
OT, OAKLAND RAIDERS
The deal: Four years, $66.8 million with $36.8 million guaranteed
Grade: C-
Patriots coach Bill Belichick owes Brown a solid for filling
in at left tackle when rookie first-round pick Isaiah Wynn went
down with a torn Achilles. Brown promptly played through injuries and excelled
en route to a Super Bowl title. Brown, in response, owes Belichick a few
million dollars. A year ago, he was an injured right tackle whom the 49ers sent
to the Patriots in the middle of the draft along with the 145th pick for the
95th selection.
Now, Brown has the highest average annual salary for an
offensive lineman in NFL history at $16.7 million, topping the $16 million
previous Patriots left tackle Nate Solder netted
from the Giants a year ago. Belichick will do just fine; the Patriots will get
back Wynn for 2019, and as CBS Sports' Will Brinson noted on Twitter, the Patriots
will likely net a compensatory pick in the 96-100 range for the
privilege of renting Brown for one season. Belichick is good at this, huh?
The 25-year-old Brown, who makes other NFL players look like
fans at 6-foot-8 and 380 pounds, was going to get paid. After Donovan Smith re-signed
with the Bucs before free agency began, Brown was the only viable left tackle
left on the market in a league in which 10 teams annually have left tackles who
keep their offensive coordinator up praying at night. It's a bit of a surprise
to see him get a record deal after just one season playing left tackle, though,
when you consider that the far more experienced Solder got a smaller deal and
then didn't impress in his debut season away from New England.
It's even more surprising to see Brown head to Oakland, if
only because the Raiders invested in tackles last offseason. In his first draft
with the Raiders, Jon Gruden surprisingly used the 15th pick on fellow 6-foot-8
tackle Kolton Miller, who started all 16 games at left tackle. Then,
with the first pick in the third round, Gruden drafted North Carolina A&T
product Brandon
Parker, who started 12 games and took over as the team's right
tackle.
Things didn't go great. According to Stats LLC, Miller allowed 13 sacks, which is one of the largest numbers I can
find for a tackle in recent memory by that company's analysis. He also committed
eight penalties, while Parker chipped in with 10 penalties and 8.5 sacks
allowed. They looked the way rookie tackles typically look.
Now, the plan has changed. Brown's salary dictates that the
Raiders see him as their left tackle, given that the only right tackle in the
league who makes more than $9.5 million per year is Lane Johnson,
whose deal has him on an average annual salary at $11.3 million. That would
seem to move Miller to the right side, where he spent his first two seasons at
UCLA. You don't typically want to draft right tackles in the middle of the
first round, so this move indirectly caps how valuable Miller can theoretically
be while also giving up on his development as a left tackle after one season.
Parker, who didn't win rave reviews from Raiders fans, will likely move to the
bench as the team's swing tackle.
One of the reasons those rookie tackles didn't develop well
is my biggest concern for Brown in Oakland. In New England, Brown's positional
coach was Dante Scarnecchia, who probably deserves to be in the Hall of Fame
for what he has accomplished. (As ESPN's Adam Schefter
pointed out, Scarnecchia probably deserves a cut of this deal, too.)
Scarnecchia is right up there with Bill Callahan of Washington among the best
offensive line coaches in football.
Brown's coach in Oakland is Tom Cable, who was a disaster
during his time in Seattle with everyone from veteran additions to high draft
picks to undrafted free agents. Cable might be one of the league's worst
offensive line coaches, to say nothing of his abhorrent
off-field behavior in years past. Given that Brown took a big leap
forward as a player once he hooked up with Scarnecchia in New England, it's
fair to wonder how he'll look after a year or two of working with Cable in
Oakland. The guy who excelled for the Patriots last season is worth this sort
of money, but I'm not sure the Raiders have the coaching staff to coax that
version of Brown out in Oakland and Las Vegas.
MALIK JACKSON,
DT, PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
The deal: Three years, $30 million with $10 million guaranteed
Grade: B
The Eagles found their replacement for Tim Jernigan by
signing Jackson, who went from making the Pro Bowl in 2017 to being benched in
2018 and eventually cut by the Jaguars this offseason. Jackson, who was a
standout during Denver's run to the Super Bowl in 2015, will hope to rekindle
his level of play alongside Fletcher Cox in
Philadelphia.
While Jackson is taking Jernigan's salary slot and place on
the roster, he might realistically also be part of the calculus in
replacing Michael
Bennett, who is an excellent interior pass-rusher. Jackson isn't
quite at Bennett's level, but the 29-year-old has consistently been effective
as a pro when allowed to penetrate and get after the quarterback. Cox is always
going to be the focal point of those pressures, but if Jackson plays well, it
will allow Cox to rest more often on passing downs than he did in 2018. Jackson
produced more quarterback knockdowns in 2018 (12) than in his more celebrated
2017 season (11), but he was unluckier; the 11-knockdown season produced eight
sacks, while the 12-knockdown campaign generated 3.5 sacks.
Jackson will need to keep up his strength as an interior
defender in a division in which he'll face the run-heavy attacks of the Cowboys
and Giants and a Washington team with Brandon
Scherff at right guard. The Jaguars got much better against the
run after trading for Marcell
Dareus during that 2017 campaign, and while Jackson isn't a minus
run defender; it's the weaker element to his game of the two.
Realistically, there's not a ton of risk here for the
Eagles, who will likely be able to get out of this contract after one season if
Jackson doesn't pan out. With three top-60 picks, they can address their
remaining points of relative weakness (running back, wideout, cornerback)
in the draft.
You would figure they don't have much more to do in unrestricted free agency,
but general manager Howie Roseman always seems to have a surprise for us.
DANNY AMENDOLA,
WR, DETROIT LIONS
The deal: One year, $4.5 million
Grade: C+
It's no surprise that a Lions organization run by
ex-Patriots such as Matt Patricia and Bob Quinn would go after the longtime New
England slot receiver, who was cut by the Dolphins last week. Amendola's deal didn't make
sense for a Dolphins team that was cap-strapped and simultaneously gave Albert Wilson a
longer deal, but the 33-year-old Amendola ended up staying relatively healthy
and played 654 offensive snaps in Miami. That's the most he has played in a
single season over the course of his 10-year career, and the first time he has
topped 600 snaps since the 2010 season, when he was still on the Rams.
The Lions do need help in the slot after trading Golden Tate to
the Eagles last year. After the trade, Detroit's leading slot receiver
was Bruce Ellington, who caught 15 passes out of the slot despite
not even being on the Lions roster until a couple of weeks after the Tate trade
took place. Amendola should fit right into that role, and Detroit won't need
him to be an every-down wideout with Kenny
Golladay and Marvin Jones on the roster.
On the other hand, the fact that the Lions already are
committed to Golladay and Jones means this is a lot to give a third wideout for
a team with holes all over its defense. This is a market deep with slot
receivers -- Amendola, Adam
Humphries, Cole Beasley and Jamison
Crowder are all out there -- and the slot is a position in
which teams have typically been able to find useful contributors in the draft
and even among undrafted free agents.
It's tough to count on Amendola to stay
healthy for any length of time, even given that he played 15 games in each of
the past two seasons. After replacing offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter with
Darrell Bevell, the Lions might not be in 11 personnel as frequently as they
were a year ago. I can see why the Lions made this move, but it's also a lot
easier to envision a scenario in which it doesn't go well than one in which it
wildly exceeds expectations.
SUNDAY, MARCH 10
OAK TRADES G KELECHI OSEMELE TO NYJ
Jets get: G Kelechi
Osemele, 2019 sixth-round pick
Raiders get: 2019 fifth-round pick
Jets grade: B+
Raiders grade: C
The Raiders got to bask in the glory of winning the Antonio Brown trade
for about 12 hours or so before making a curious decision by dealing Osemele to
the Jets. For a team with no cap concerns even after trading for Brown and giving him a new deal, it's
surprising to see them move on from a Pro Bowl-caliber guard with no obvious
replacement on the roster. Given the presence of Tom Cable as offensive line
coach, expect the Raiders to replace Osemele with a basketball player or a
defensive lineman. Jon Feliciano,
who filled in at guard this season, is a free agent.
To be fair, the Raiders might point out that the Osemele,
who was arguably the most physically dominant lineman in football in 2015 and
2016, hasn't been the same over the past two seasons. In 2017, new Raiders
offensive coordinator Todd Downing moved the team to a heavy dose of outside
zone, playing against his line's strengths. Last season, Osemele missed three
games with a knee injury, played through a reaggravation of that injury, and
then was out for two games in December with a toe ailment. He wasn't 100
percent for most of the campaign, and per STATS, LLC data, he allowed four sacks in
11 games.
If the Raiders think Osemele's injury issues are going to
continue to be a problem, they probably wouldn't be enthused to pay the two
years and $21 million left on his deal. Enter the Jets, who have more than $100
million in cap space and a dismal offensive line. There's very little risk here
for general manager Mike Maccagnan, who is moving down about one round in the
late rounds of the draft and adding a player with Pro Bowl upside and an
unguaranteed contract. The Jets suddenly have one of the better guard duos in
the league with Osemele and Brian Winters,
although they probably still need to add a right tackle.
My only issue from New York's perspective is figuring out
their scheme. Adam Gase's best offenses have come when his running game is
built around the outside zone. Granted, those teams included Peyton Manning at quarterback in Denver, but his best
stretch running the football in Miami was with Jay Ajayi
running heavy doses of wide zone. Osemele can block that just fine if he's
healthy, but it's like driving a bulldozer to the grocery store. The former
Ravens standout is always going to look best as a mauler in more physical run
schemes. New offensive line coach Frank Pollack spent years with the Cowboys
under Bill Callahan before spending the 2018 season under former Gase assistant
Bill Lazor in Cincinnati, where he installed plenty of outside zone looks
for Joe Mixon.
Gase built an effective rushing attack around Frank Gore a
year ago without relying as heavily upon outside zone, so it wouldn't shock me
if we saw the Jets running more duo after acquiring Osemele. In a thin market
for guards, even if the Jets don't play to Osemele's strengths, they've still
made a significant upgrade at one of the weakest positions on their roster.
PIT TRADES WR ANTONIO BROWN TO OAK
Raiders get: WR Antonio Brown
Steelers get: 2019 third- and fifth-round picks
Raiders grade: A-
Steelers grade: C-
The Antonio Brown trade,
at its core, is about money. It's about a lot of other things -- power,
respect, aging and double standards all come to mind -- but at the end of the
day, this is a trade about money, which is why I didn't think it was going to
happen. I'm not sure there has been a swap like this in recent memory, in which
a superstar player on a veteran deal was dealt away in the prime of his career
without offering his team any sort of salary-cap savings.
In making this trade now, the Steelers are passing up the
opportunity to keep one of the five best wideouts in football on their roster
for $22.2 million of cap space for the opportunity to eat $21.1 million in dead
money on their 2019 cap and let that guy play for somebody else. Organizations
only eat that sort of dead money when they have a player commit some serious
off-field indiscretion (Junior Galette, Ray Rice), or if they're rebuilding and
dumping underwater contracts from the previous regime (Marcell
Dareus), and that's usually over two seasons.
As a 30-year-old receiver who led the league in touchdown catches
last season, Brown is none of those things. For a team regularly in contention
with an aging quarterback to willingly turn 11 percent of its salary cap into
dead money requires a very specific, strange set of circumstances to go wrong.
To make that decision and net a pair of midround picks is potentially
unprecedented.
When it appeared the Steelers were only cranky about Brown,
I assumed both sides would eventually work toward a resolution, mostly because
it didn't make financial sense for the team to tie up its cap space to let
Brown go somewhere else. The point where things shifted was when Brown went onto social media and indicated that he also wanted
a change of scenery. It wasn't quite Terrell Owens doing sit-ups
in his driveway, but Brown's decision to go onto Twitter and call
out Ben Roethlisberger didn't do his situation any favors.
In the process of trying to push his way out of Pittsburgh,
Brown eroded the organization's leverage. The Steelers spent the past two
months publicly flailing, alternately leaking stories that suggested a trade
hinged on getting a first-round pick, then suggesting it wouldn't. They set a
final offer deadline for Friday and then let that deadline come and go. After
news conferences and statements from various levels of the organization
seemingly contradicting each other, they were forced to settle for third- and fifth-round picks from
the only team that seemed seriously interested in bidding for Brown throughout
the entire process.
Imagine going 12 months back in time to tell the biggest
Steelers fan you know that Pittsburgh traded Brown for two midround draft picks.
Heck, imagine going back six months ago and telling the biggest Steelers fan
you know that they would get worked in a deal by the Raiders.
THE MONEY PROBLEM
If you want to trace back to where everything went wrong in
the relationship between the Steelers and Brown, it starts with one of the best
contracts in modern league history. After Brown's second year in the league
yielded an 1,108-yard season, the team gave the 2010 sixth-round pick a
considerable raise by signing him to a five-year, $42 million extension with an
$8.5 million signing bonus. The Steelers were only able to sign Brown after two
seasons because he was drafted under the old CBA; had Brown been drafted after
the 2010 season, the Steelers would have needed to wait for a third year before
signing Brown to a deal.
In Year 4, Brown broke out as one of the top wideouts in the
league with a 1,499-yard campaign. From 2013 to '16, Brown averaged -- averaged --
120 catches, 1,578 yards and 11 touchdowns per season. Because he was under
contract through the end of the 2017 season, though, the Steelers were able to
pay Brown just $28.8 million over that four-year span, which is a little more
than the annual average salary guys such as Robert Meachem and Laurent Robinson
were getting in free agency. Former Steelers teammate Mike Wallace
hit free agency and netted a five-year, $60 million deal with the Dolphins that
paid him $36.9 million over three seasons before he was cut after 2015.
Brown was making less than half of his true market value,
and while most players deal with that during their rookie deals, he was
struggling with it on his second contract. With the Steelers' cap tied up thanks to years of subpar financial decisions, they repeatedly
restructured Brown's deal to create pockets of short-term cap room without
giving him any notable raise. (For those unfamiliar with how the cap works,
these restructures meant that Brown would receive most of his weekly base
salary as an upfront bonus in March; he would take home the same amount of cash
and get paid earlier, but the Steelers would be allowed to spread the cap hit for
the restructured bonus over several years, creating temporary room.)
In part because of those cap concerns, Pittsburgh waited
five years and for the final year of Brown's extension to give its star
receiver an extension. Most teams will say that waiting until the final year of
a deal to hand out a new contract is organizational policy, with Pittsburgh among them, but the Steelers gave
Roethlisberger an extension with two years left to go on his rookie deal in
2008.
When they did give Brown his deal, they applied a cap
structure that is generally unique to the Steelers. Most teams hand out
extensions to star players by giving an upfront signing bonus and guaranteeing
at least two years of base salaries, which makes it extremely likely a player
will remain on the roster for those two seasons. For a star quarterback or a
transcendent player like Brown, a team will either explicitly guarantee three
seasons or structure the contract in a way that it would be virtually
impossible to cut a player for cap reasons.
Instead, the Steelers have a policy of guaranteeing only the
bonuses in the first year of their deals. Cameron
Heyward's deal has $15 million guaranteed, with a $12 million
signing bonus and a $3 million roster bonus paid in Year 1, but nothing else
afterward. Elite guard David
DeCastro has a $16 million guarantee, all of which is in his
signing bonus. Even Roethlisberger's most recent extension consists of a $31
million signing bonus with no other guarantees, although the veteran
quarterback did get partial guarantees for injury only in Years 2 and 3.
After waiting for years to get his contract, Brown got $19
million guaranteed when he signed his deal, all in the signing bonus. Throw in
a $910,000 base salary and Brown took home $19.9 million in 2017 as part of a
four-year, $68 million extension. That's good money, of course, but when DeAndre
Hopkins signed his extension six months later, he took home $24
million in 2017 and still had a $12.5 million guaranteed base salary for the
following season. Brandin Cooks'
extension paid $11 million in Year 1, but the structure of the deal basically
guarantees he'll take home $63.5 million over the next four seasons. Brown only
gets to that ballpark if he continues to be great.
The reason a player would be comfortable taking a deal with
that sort of structure is because the large signing bonus generally shields
them from being cut, even without a guaranteed salary. Heading into last
season, for example, the Steelers had to choose between keeping Brown on their
roster with a cap hit of $16.8 million or either cutting or trading him, which
would have incurred $15.2 million in dead money. In that scenario, they would
choose to keep Brown 999 times out of 1,000, but you also can imagine how that
one-in-a-thousand example might be enough to antagonize Brown, if only because
it just happened.
Pittsburgh's last mistake -- and a clear sign that it was
not expecting to move on from Brown anytime soon -- was when it restructured
his deal last offseason. The Steelers owed him a $7.9 million base salary and a
$6 million roster bonus, neither of which were guaranteed, but instead
converted $7 million in salary and the $6 million roster bonus into a signing
bonus. The move paid Brown that $13 million up front, with the remaining $915,000
coming during the season, and it cleared out $9.7 million in cap space in 2018.
It's the sort of thing you do only if you're absolutely sure you're not going
to need to part ways with that player the following season.
If the Steelers hadn't restructured Brown's deal, they could
have traded him and owed $11.4 million in dead money. The deal would have
represented a $7.5 million cap savings. Instead, because they used Brown's deal
to create more short-term cap space, they will owe $21.1 million in dead money
on their cap for Brown this year, which is believed to be the largest
single-season dead money total for a player in league history.
Given what has happened over the past decade, you might
understand why Brown would feel disrespected, even on a deal with an average
annual salary in new money of $17 million per season. There was no chance that
the Steelers, who exploited one of the best bargains in football for years, were
going to uproot their contract structure by giving Brown a new extension or
even guarantee a future season with three years left on his current deal.
Instead, they preferred to let someone else pay Brown.
It's one of the same reasons why they weren't able to come
to terms with Le'Veon Bell, who says the Steelers offered him only $17 million guaranteed as
part of a five-year, $70 million deal. That contractual policy is going to cost
the team both of its star weapons in the same offseason, and its cap philosophy
is going to make it feel the pain of that decision in one of the final seasons
of Roethlisberger's career.
Compare the Steelers to the team that has kept them from a
return trip to the Super Bowl over the past eight seasons. The Patriots rarely
restructure contracts, and when they do, it's not the sort of maxed-out move
the Steelers pulled with Brown. The only player on the Pats' roster with a
restructure cap hold of more than $1.3 million in 2018 or 2019 is Tom Brady.
The Pats also had a bargain of a deal similar to Brown's initial extension with
the six-year, $54 million extension they handed to Rob Gronkowski after
his second season in the league, but unlike the Steelers, the Patriots have sweetened Gronkowski's deal by adding incentives to
keep their star tight end happy.
OAKLAND GETS ITS
NO. 1 RECEIVER
Of course, it's tempting to lump the Amari Cooper trade
in with this deal and point out that the Raiders essentially traded Cooper and
two midround picks for Brown and a first-rounder. It turned out that way in the
long run, of course, but it's the wrong way to think about things. The Raiders
didn't make the Cooper trade knowing that Brown would come available for a
pittance. Comparing the relative merits of Brown and Cooper is irrelevant
because the Raiders never had a chance to choose between them.
Evaluating this trade in a vacuum, it's difficult to find an
argument against the Raiders making the move. The draft pick
compensation is a drop in the bucket for a team with three first-round picks,
as new general manager Mike Mayock did well to resist Pittsburgh's attempts to
negotiate for a first-round pick through the media. The 66th and 141st picks
are equivalent to the 41st pick in
a typical draft by the Chase Stuart draft chart, while the
traditional Jimmy Johnson chart has them add up as something closer to the 61st
selection. Either way, if you want to invoke a recent Raiders trade, this is
the same organization that used third- and fifth-round picks to trade for Martavis
Bryant and AJ McCarron under
Jon Gruden's watch.
Financially, the Raiders entered the offseason with more
than $60 million in cap room, so absorbing a new deal for Brown wasn't going to
be an issue. AB's new contract is reportedly a three-year pact worth $54.1
million with $30 million guaranteed, which is a far cry from the zero dollars
and zero cents that was remaining in guarantees on his Steelers deal.
In reality, it's not even as huge of a contract as it might
seem. Brown wasn't going to take a pay cut, so any team trading for him was
going to pay him a minimum of the $15.1 million he was due this season. We
don't yet know how his deal is structured, but with that $30 million number, it
seems likely that he got a second guaranteed year as part of this new deal,
which isn't crazy by any means. You would figure that a team trading for Brown
would expect to have him on its roster for at least two seasons.
The $54.1 million figure produces an annual average salary
of $18,033,333, which also isn't an accident, given that the largest annual
average salary for any wideout is Odell Beckham Jr.'s $18 million per year. Brown might have to
hit incentives to get to that mark, but it appears that the Raiders added about $3.75 million per year to Brown's existing contract. In
a league in which Sammy Watkins got
three years and $48 million in free agency last year -- a mark that would
translate to $51 million after a year of cap inflation -- is giving Brown $54
million over three years really unreasonable? I don't think so.
On the field, this move reminds me a lot of why the Cowboys
traded for Cooper, actually. When I analyzed that deal, I wrote that the Cowboys were acquiring
Cooper to help evaluate Dak Prescott in
anticipation of a possible extension this offseason. Trading for Cooper also
allowed the Cowboys to get ahead of a terrible wideout market, and while nobody
could have anticipated that the Cowboys would go on a 7-2 run with Cooper in
the lineup, there was logic to the move.
Here, Oakland has its own evaluation to conduct. Gruden
spent a year with Derek Carr,
and while the results were uneven at times, Carr didn't have a great receiving
corps. He did get to throw 101 passes to Jared Cook,
who had a career year, but Jordy Nelson looked
well past his prime at age 33. Seth Roberts
continued to lose the battle against drops. With Cook a free agent, Carr was
staring down at a Week 1 receiving corps of Nelson, Marcell
Ateman and Derek Carrier.
I don't need to tell you how Brown makes that better.
If the Raiders do decide to draft a quarterback in the first
round, getting to play with Brown makes it way easier for Kyler Murray or Dwayne Haskins to adjust to the pro game. Few receivers
in the league remain as skilled at getting themselves open against just about
any possible kind of coverage. With limited weapons elsewhere in the lineup and
a mediocre roster in the middle of a rebuild, Brown is well-positioned to get
all the targets he could desire. It would hardly be a surprise if he became the
first player to rack up 200 targets in a season since Julio Jones
did it in 2015.
There's also realistically a marketing element to this move.
When I wrote about the Cooper trade, I mentioned that the closest billboard in
Las Vegas to the Raiders' future stadium featured Gruden, and Gruden alone. After trading away Cooper
and Khalil Mack in
one season, it was a smart move to keep Gruden on the board, since he seemed to
be the only one sure to make it to Las Vegas for 2020. Trading for Brown gives
the Raiders a star to build around as they relocate to Sin City. People weren't
going to line up to buy Carrier or Ateman jerseys. Brown is a bona fide
superstar.
Is there a chance this all goes south? Of course, especially
in Year 2. Remember that Gruden inherited Keyshawn Johnson when he took over
the Bucs in 2002. The two won a Super Bowl together in Gruden's first season
with Tampa. Halfway during the subsequent campaign, Gruden's relationship with
Johnson became so toxic that the Bucs sent Johnson home and deactivated him for the final seven games of the
year.
Even if that happens, though, the Raiders will be out some money
and a pair of midround picks. There's nobody like Brown in this free-agent
class, and there's nobody who will move the needle more for their fan base who
also would have considered Oakland. There's risk involved here, but it's a risk
the Raiders had to take.
PITTSBURGH LOSES
ITS NO. 1 RECEIVER ... RIGHT?
One of the reasons the Steelers will be able to make this
trade and sleep at night is the presence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who doesn't turn 23 until November and
looks to be one of the most promising young wideouts in recent memory. Since
entering the starting lineup in Week 9 of his rookie season, Smith-Schuster has
averaged 91.8 receiving yards per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL behind
Hopkins, Jones and Brown.
Hopkins and Jones are clear No. 1 options in their own
offenses, while Smith-Schuster has had to cede massive amounts of touches to
Brown. Smith-Schuster has averaged 9.6 targets per game to Brown's 11.3, while
Hopkins has averaged 10.9 and Jones 10.3. Give Smith-Schuster a larger role,
hand over some targets to second-year wideout James Washington, and the Steelers should be fine. Right?
HOW DID BROWN TO
THE RAIDERS COME TOGETHER?
Adam Schefter details the process of how the Steelers and
Raiders agreed on an Antonio Brown trade and what it means for both teams.
It's not quite that simple. For one, plugging Washington in
as a guaranteed starting wide receiver is dangerous. The Steelers have hit in
the recent past on wideouts like Brown, Smith-Schuster, Wallace and Emmanuel
Sanders, but they've also used third-round picks on Dri Archer,
Sammie Coates and Markus Wheaton, none of whom developed into regulars.
Washington caught just 42.1 percent of the passes thrown to him as a rookie;
it's still way too early to judge him, of course, but it's not as if the 60th
overall pick has done something to make us think he's a plug-and-play starter.
Smith-Schuster and Brown aren't exactly the same sort of
receiver, either. Yahoo's Matt Harmon tracked both of their seasons and found that
Smith-Schuster lined up far more frequently in the slot, which resulted in way
less press coverage. Brown was double-teamed more than 10 times as frequently
as Smith-Schuster was. With Brown gone, the Steelers will likely continue to
let Smith-Schuster take more than half of his snaps in the slot, but the wildly
talented third-year wideout will undoubtedly see more attention. The Steelers
also will need to find someone capable of winning against press coverage on the
outside without Brown.
Pittsburgh probably has to find at least one veteran wide
receiver to chip in, which is going to be a pain given the aforementioned dead
cap hold on Brown. The team already has mooted the idea of restructuring
Roethlisberger's contract to create cap room, but with one year left on the
37-year-old's deal, any change is going to be an extension to keep
Roethlisberger around while creating short-term cap space. The Steelers
eventually will pay for their accounting, as they are with Brown here, but they
should be able to create $6-7 million or so in cap space with a Roethlisberger
extension, which could go toward a new wideout.
They'll also probably run the ball more frequently in 2019
with Brown on the Raiders. They threw the ball on 67.4 percent of their
offensive snaps last season, the second-highest rate in football behind the
Packers. A more successful Steelers team will run the ball with a lead more
frequently in the fourth quarter, but even after accounting for changes in game
script, the Steelers should trust James Conner more
than they did a year ago. Conner touched the ball 20.7 times per game last
season, down from Bell's 27.1 in 2017.
AB GETS AN A?
I normally consider these grades from the team's
perspective, in part because it's usually easier to understand how a team
functions and thinks over the course of dozens of acquisitions and releases
than it is to think about things from the perspective of a player who might
sign only one or two deals over the course of his career. Every player in the
NFL is vastly underpaid in a vacuum, but in the context of a league with a
salary cap, the money matters.
From my perspective, it sure looks like Antonio Brown battled
to get what he wanted and succeeded. He wanted to call out Roethlisberger for
disrespect and did so publicly, sparking an embarrassing comment from general manager Kevin Colbert about
the Steelers having 52 kids under Roethlisberger. Brown wanted guaranteed money
and a raise from an organization that regarded that as anathema, and he played
his cards right and ended up getting exactly that from another organization. He
wanted to be respected and appreciated for his work.
No, his chances of winning a Super Bowl aren't as high as
they were a month ago. After going underpaid for the better part of a decade,
though, you can understand why Brown would want to take advantage of what will
probably be his last chance to get top-wideout money. The Steelers will still
be good on offense in 2019, but without their star receiver and with Bell
following him out the door, they might have cost themselves one last chance to
win a Super Bowl with Roethlisberger at the helm.
SATURDAY, MARCH 9
DWAYNE ALLEN,
TE, MIAMI DOLPHINS
The deal: Two years, $7 million
Grade: B
Generally, a rebuilding Dolphins team should be going after
younger talent and avoiding free agency. This deal is an exception for a couple
of reasons. One is that Allen was cut by the Patriots, so he won't impact the
draft pick compensation the Dolphins might be in line to receive if Ja'Wuan James and Cameron Wake sign
elsewhere.
The other is that the Miami really isn't paying that much
for a block-first, low-end starting tight end, especially when you consider
that the Ravens paid Nick Boyle nearly
twice as much in terms of annual salary. Allen should be a bigger part of the
passing game after catching just 13 passes over two seasons in New England,
where new Dolphins coach Brian Flores and offensive coordinator Chad O'Shea saw
him in practice on a daily basis. He's also an excellent fit in terms of skill
set alongside Mike Gesicki,
who the team will hope breaks out as the teams move tight end in his second
season.
CARLOS HYDE,
RB, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The deal: One year, $2.8 million with $1.6 million guaranteed
Grade: C-
The Chiefs need a running back with Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware no
longer on the roster, and my guess is that Hyde will do just fine in Kansas
City if the Chiefs turn to him in a limited role. At the same time, though,
they have managed to rotate everyone from Hunt to Charcandrick
West to Jamaal
Charles to Damien
Williams as their primary running back during the Andy Reid era
without losing much efficiency. Hyde can succeed in Kansas City because just
about everybody the team lines up -- short of Knile Davis -- does well.
I'm not sure the Chiefs need to devote nearly $3 million to
Hyde to find a competent running back to either compete with Williams or take
over as the primary back. I also understand that they might want to add a
veteran to their backfield, but you would figure they would want someone with
above-average receiving ability given how frequently Reid likes to throw to his
backs. Hyde's only year with significant receiving production was with Kyle
Shanahan in 2017, but the former first-round pick was one of
the least efficient receiving backs in football that season for San Francisco.
Both Williams and Hyde are likely to make
the roster, and I would expect the Chiefs to go after a long-term solution
like Damien Harris in the middle rounds of this year's draft.
Williams can play special teams, but Hyde didn't take a single special-teams
snap in either of his stops last season. As ESPN's Matthew Berry pointed out on
Twitter, the second back in Reid's offense doesn't typically have
a big role from week to week. Hyde basically needs to make a significant
difference as a rusher to justify his roster spot here, and given Kansas City's
incredible passing attack and excellent offensive line, they could plug in
plenty of options to succeed in that role.
FRIDAY, MARCH 8
ERIC WEDDLE,
S, LOS ANGELES RAMS
The deal: Two years, $12.5 million with $5.25 million guaranteed
Grade: B
With the Rams unlikely to re-sign free agent Lamarcus
Joyner, their list of potential replacements at free safety was
vast, especially after Tashaun
Gipson hit the market earlier Friday. As a conference champion in a
desirable city with cap space, the Rams are going to have the lead on signing
just about any ring-chasing veteran who hits the market. It's no surprise they
ended up with Weddle, and he won't be the last solid over-30 player to join
their roster this offseason.
Off the field, Weddle makes plenty of sense for the Rams.
General manager Les Snead established a habit of using his own draft picks to
trade for talented players while recouping some of the missing selections by
letting his own veterans leave in free agency for compensatory picks. The Rams
could be in line for as many as four compensatory picks if Joyner, Ndamukong Suh, Rodger
Saffold, and Dante Fowler Jr. sign elsewhere.
Since Weddle was released by the Ravens, the 34-year-old
won't count against the compensatory formula, so he can't cancel out any of the
picks the Rams might gain for their four free agents if they move on. As the
elder statesman of the safety class, he was the guy most likely to take a
short-term deal, and this contact probably represents a one-year pact with an
unguaranteed second season. That's ideal for the Rams, too.
On the field, it's fair to say the Ravens thought Weddle
wasn't the player he was a couple of years ago, given that they turned down the
option to pay him $6.5 million for 2019. It has to be concerning that Weddle
failed to stuff the stat sheet the way he had in years past. The six-time Pro
Bowler failed to force a takeaway for only the second time in his 11 seasons as
a starter and defensed a mere three passes after racking up 21 defenses over
the previous two years. The Ravens ranked second in DVOA on
short throws but only 16th on deeper attempts, where you would figure Weddle
might have had more of an impact.
At the same time, though, Weddle was a starting safety on
the league's third-best defense by DVOA, and it wasn't as if he was an obvious
weakness. Weddle still has excellent instincts, and on a unit with starting
cornerbacks renowned for jumping routes or coming off their man to try to force
an interception, he is a solid last line of defense. Don Martindale had a
superb debut season as Ravens defensive coordinator in 2018, but Rams DC Wade
Phillips seems to make just about every player he gets better. The last time
Weddle failed to record a takeaway was during his final season with the
Chargers, and he promptly picked off 10 passes for the Ravens over the next two
years.
The only thing you might say is that the
Rams would occasionally slide Joyner down into the slot and play him as a
cornerback against wideouts, something they can't really ask Weddle to do at
this point of his career. There's always a chance that he returns from the
offseason and isn't the same guy -- remember that John Lynch made the Pro Bowl
for the Broncos at 36 in 2007 and wasn't able to make the Patriots' roster or
catch on anywhere else the following August -- but it's more likely that the
Rams get solid, smart safety play in their backfield next season.
PHI TRADES DE MICHAEL BENNETT TO NE
Patriots get: DE Michael
Bennett, 2020 seventh-round pick
Eagles get: 2020 fifth-round pick
Patriots grade: A
Eagles grade: B-
It seemed almost inevitable that Bennett would eventually
make his way to New England, and after Bill Belichick traded for one year
of Martellus Bennett in 2016 and promptly won a Super Bowl,
he'll hope to do the same with the tight end's older brother. To get a
pass-rusher as talented and flexible as Bennett for what amounts to a swap of
late-round picks in 2020 is a classic Belichick trade picking up a valuable
player for what amounts to pennies on the dollar. This is Belichick's 2019
equivalent of the Trent Brown trade,
when he swapped a fourth-round pick for a fifth-rounder and ended up with a
Super Bowl-winning left tackle.
Make no mistakes: Bennett is still an upper-echelon
pass-rusher. He finished the 2018 season with nine sacks, 15 tackles for loss,
and a whopping 30 quarterback knockdowns, with the latter coming fourth in the
NFL. The 33-year-old has typically underperformed his knockdown totals as a
pro, turning about 35 percent of his quarterback hits into sacks, but he is
quite clearly still a disruptive defender.
Bennett is far more productive than players like Jadeveon
Clowney and Olivier
Vernon, and with unguaranteed base salaries of $6.2 million and $7
million over the next two seasons, he'll make less than either of those guys
will bring home in 2019 alone. He's going to be a massive help for a Patriots
team that looked perilously thin at defensive end with Trey Flowers probably
leaving in free agency. Bennett is probably best as an interior rusher in
passing situations, but I suspect we'll see Belichick get creative to try and
create one-on-one matchups for the Texas A&M product.
The only concern is whether Bennett will butt heads again
with the ornery Greg Schiano, who wasn't impressed with Bennett's propensity for freelancing while he was
coach in Tampa Bay. Schiano valued Bennett only as a nickel
pass-rusher and let him leave for the Seahawks, where he promptly won a Super
Bowl. With the former Ohio State defensive coordinator joining Belichick's
staff this year, Schiano will need to let bygones be bygones and build his pass
rush around New England's new star end.
This move was perhaps inevitable for the Eagles after they
signed Brandon Graham to a three-year, $40 million deal. Philly
has about $26 million in cap space after making a series of moves this
offseason to clear out room, including trading Bennett, restructuring Lane Johnson's
deal, adding an extra year to Jason Kelce's
contract to reduce his 2019 cap number, and moving on from Tim Jernigan.
Philly was probably going to cut Bennett
if general manager Howie Roseman couldn't find a trade partner, so getting
something when the alternative is nothing is nice, but the vaunted Eagles
defensive line is thinner at the moment than it has been in years past.
Jernigan and Bennett are gone, Haloti Ngata is
unlikely to return (and wasn't effective last season), and Chris Long still
hasn't indicated whether he intends to return in 2019. This is a good draft for
defensive linemen, of course, and the Eagles should be able to restock with
younger talent, but it's tough to expect a rookie to come in and perform as
well as Bennett has.
CLE TRADES G KEVIN ZEITLER TO NYG FOR DE OLIVIER VERNON
Browns get: DE Olivier
Vernon, 4-132
Giants get: G Kevin Zeitler,
5-155
Browns grade: C
Giants grade: B-
It's difficult to judge this trade in a vacuum, in part
because each team made a decision before this swap that I wouldn't necessarily
agree with. If you accept that the Browns decided to deal Zeitler and the
Giants planned to trade Vernon, this swap makes a lot of sense for both
parties. If you question the broader logic, though, I might not be as enthused.
From Cleveland's perspective, general manager John Dorsey
has broken up a line that was very impressive during the second half of the
season for Baker
Mayfield. Zeitler was one of the league's highest-paid guards and
had a $12.4 million cap hold for 2019, but he also was an excellent two-way
interior lineman who hadn't missed a game in four years. The former Bengals
standout did commit a career-high six penalties last season, but ask Cincinnati
fans how much they miss the duo of Zeitler and Andrew
Whitworth since they left in the spring of 2017. The Bengals'
offense has ground to a halt thanks to offensive line woes (and injuries) over
the past two seasons.
Now, suddenly, Mayfield's line is a major question mark.
Starting left tackle Greg Robinson,
whose deal is farther down in this file, has an addiction to holding penalties.
The Browns will unquestionably replace Zeitler with 2018 second-rounder Austin
Corbett, who played 14 offensive snaps as a rookie. Could Corbett
turn out to be a useful player? Of course. Is it worth trading away an
excellent guard to find out? It seems like a risky proposition, especially
given that the Browns hardly need cap space. The idea of having Corbett as
depth for the inevitable offensive line injuries every team deals with during a
season seems more appealing than moving an upper-echelon lineman to get him
into the lineup.
Cleveland did need to add a second pass-rusher to pair
with Myles Garrett,
and trading for Vernon allows the former Dolphins standout to move back into a
4-3 base defense under new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Vernon hasn't
racked up gaudy sack numbers during his career, but his knockdown totals have
made him a bit of an analytics darling, including the 36-hit season in 2015
that helped get him a five-year, $85 million deal in free agency.
The 28-year-old Vernon went through a lost half-season in
2018 after suffering a high ankle sprain, which has sunk pass-rushers like Ezekiel Ansah for
months at a time in years past. He seemed like an obvious cap casualty at the
halfway point of the season, but Vernon played like a superstar over the final
six weeks of the season. The new Browns end generated six sacks and 15
knockdowns over the final six weeks, with the latter mark ranking fourth in the
NFL in that span.
If Cleveland gets that sort of production out of Vernon,
they'll win this deal. I wouldn't quite count on that, but a healthy Vernon
will see one-on-one matchups across from Garrett and should be good for a sack
every other week, which makes him an above-average edge rusher. He's not really
a consistently stout run defender, which could hurt a Browns team that ranked
25th in the league in run defense DVOA last season, but Vernon isn't a
liability in that role, either. His arrival also moves Emmanuel
Ogbah into a rotational role as the third defensive end, which
is probably a better fit for his level of ability. The Browns might rue moving
on from Carl Nassib,
who looked a lot better in Tampa than he did in Cleveland, but their defensive
line will be better once this trade is confirmed.
The issue here, though, is that we're entering an offseason
where the draft is full of edge-rushing talent. Even after the franchise tag
picked off a handful of talented defensive ends, there are going to be plenty
of options available to teams who want to add pass-rushers. Is Vernon at a base
salary of $15.5 million better than adding, say, Michael Bennett (who
is reportedly on the trade/release block) and Terrell Suggs for
the same price? Would the Browns have been better off trading for Justin
Houston, who wouldn't have cost anywhere near as much in terms of
compensation? I understand wanting to add an edge rusher and Vernon is a good
one, but I'm not sure I would have wanted to trade Zeitler to get one in this
market.
It should be no surprise, on the other hand, that Giants GM
Dave Gettleman made a move for an offensive lineman. There aren't any
plug-and-play starters in free agency at guard besides Rodger
Saffold, and if the Giants didn't think they were going to get the
Rams standout, pivoting to Zeitler makes a lot of sense. The cap is a far more
pressing concern for Big Blue, and Zeitler's $10 million base salary might
prevent them from paying a similar amount to former Gettleman draftee Daryl
Williams to come play right tackle, but Zeitler fills in a spot
that was occupied by Patrick
Omameh and Jamon Brown last
season.
It's a major upgrade, and while Gettleman's plan to
construct a 1970s-era offense around the running game while paying Eli Manning more
than 12 percent of his salary cap is brutally flawed, building around a great
offensive line is reasonable enough. I'm not sure the Giants get there by adding
Zeitler, especially given how badly Nate Solder regressed
in New York last season, but they're a much more talented line with Zeitler
than without him.
On the other hand, a defense that wasn't exactly crammed
with pass-rushing talent just lost its best edge defender. After Vernon, the
team's most productive pass-rushers were defensive tackle B.J. Hill and
second-year linebacker Lorenzo
Carter, who is now penciled in to take over as one of the starting
outside linebackers in James Bettcher's defense. The Giants ranked 31st
in adjusted sack rate last season, and they just traded away the
only thing protecting them from the 32nd-ranked Raiders.
The good news for the Giants is what I mentioned earlier:
They should be able to find pass-rushing help, either in free agency or with
one of their draft picks. If the Kyler Murray rumors
turn out to be true, they could suddenly be in great shape with the sixth pick.
The names who keep popping up at the top of the draft include two quarterbacks
(Murray and Dwayne
Haskins), a dominant defensive tackle (Quinnen
Williams), and three edge rushers (Nick Bosa, Josh Allen and Montez Sweat).
Todd McShay's most recent mock draft has offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor and
edge rusher Rashan Gary coming
off of the board at seven and eight after the Giants pick, too.
The Giants need players at all those positions, which means
that they should be in a great spot to add their quarterback of the future, an
impact defensive lineman or a right tackle at six. They had to trade down one
round in the middle of the draft to get this done, which is a slight demerit,
but they added a great player at a position of need by giving up a player at a
position where there will be options this offseason. It's easier to make sense
of their side on this one.
PIT TRADES OT MARCUS GILBERT TO ARI
Cardinals get: OT Marcus
Gilbert
Steelers get: 2019 sixth-round pick
Cardinals grade: B+
Steelers grade: C+
This trade will likely be for the Cardinals' compensatory
pick, which comes in at No. 207. The Steelers once drafted the immaculately
named Cap Boso with the 207th pick, but given that they were likely to release
Gilbert if a trade partner didn't arise, this is essentially a salary
dump. Matt Feiler, who started nine games at right tackle a year
ago, will likely compete with 2018 third-rounder Chukwuma Okorafor for the starting job in camp for a
Steelers team that lost legendary offensive line coach Mike Munchak to the
Broncos this offseason.
The Cardinals badly needed offensive line
help at just about every spot, and while Justin Pugh might
have been able to kick out and play right tackle, Arizona will pencil in
Gilbert as its starting right tackle for Week 1. The Cards won't be using a pen
here for injury reasons, as Gilbert has missed 23 games over the past four
seasons thanks to a suspension and injuries to his knee, ankle and hamstring.
Gilbert will make $4.9 million in the final year of his contract, which is a
risk worth taking for Arizona.
DEN TRADES QB CASE KEENUM TO WSH
Washington gets: QB Case Keenum (on
a restructured deal), 2020 seventh-round pick
Broncos get: 2020 sixth-round pick
Washington grade: C
Broncos grade: C+
Denver general manager John Elway had little leverage with
Keenum after trading for Joe Flacco last
month. The Broncos already had guaranteed $7 million of Keenum's $18 million
base salary in 2019, and while no team was going to take on that extra $11
million in a trade, moving on from their 2018 starter would have reduced
Denver's liability this upcoming season.
By trading Keenum in lieu of releasing him, the Broncos will
realize a small cash savings. The offsets on Keenum's deal mean the team would
only have realized a financial or cap savings if another team was willing to
offer the 31-year-old more than $7 million for 2019, which seems unlikely. If
we assume no team was willing to make that sort of offer, teams would instead
just offer the minimum and allow the Broncos to assume the majority of the
money owed Keenum, who would get the same amount of cash in his pocket either
way. The veteran minimum for Keenum would have been $800,000 or so, meaning the
Broncos would have been on the hook for $6.2 million if they had released
Keenum.
Instead, with Keenum's blessing, the Broncos restructured
his deal and paid their incumbent $500,000 to forgo the $11 million in
unguaranteed money for 2019. The Broncos will be on the hook for that $500,000
and $3.5 million of Keenum's $7 million base salary, while Washington will take
on the other $3.5 million. The pick swap of a sixth-round pick for a
seventh-rounder in 2020 is of little consequence. The Broncos were getting rid
of Keenum either way; making this move saves them about $2.2 million.
It's a more curious move for Washington, who theoretically
could have waited for the Broncos to cut Keenum and picked him up in the
free-agent market for the minimum. Instead, it paid a premium of $2.7 million
or so to acquire Keenum now, which suggests it was worried somebody else was
going to beat it to the punch and trade for Keenum, or that Keenum would have a
more attractive suitor in unrestricted free agency.
I'm not sure there was one, if only because Washington
represents Keenum's best chance at a starting job. If Nick Foles goes
to Jacksonville as expected when free agency begins, well, there
just aren't going to be any starting jobs open. Every other team either has a
veteran incumbent or a young player they're committed to starting, and that's
before we figure out where draft picks Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) and Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) are going to end up.
It's possible that a team such as the Dolphins or Giants
could cut their starting quarterback and go for Keenum as a bridge option, but
this was the best opportunity left as the market currently stands, which is why
Keenum was willing to forgo the open market and take that $10.5 million pay cut
to go to Washington.
Washington fans might not be particularly excited about the
idea of heading into 2019 with Keenum and Colt McCoy as
their options at starting quarterback, but I wouldn't be surprised if Jay
Gruden & Co. made another move at the position. They don't have the cap
space to add anyone with a significant salary, but I wouldn't count out a move
up for someone like Haskins if Gruden thinks he's a franchise passer.
Second-tier passers such as Drew Lock (Missouri) and Daniel Jones (Duke) also could be in the discussion. If
Washington drafts a passer in one of the first two rounds in April, Keenum and
McCoy could be competing for a roster spot as opposed to the starting
quarterback's job.
Keenum isn't going to excite a frustrated Washington fan
base, but he does raise the floor for a Washington team that was 6-3 last
season before Alex Smith broke his leg. McCoy made it through only one start
before fracturing his fibula against the Eagles, which ended up forcing
Washington to turn to replacement-level options Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson over
the remainder of the season. Keenum isn't going to be the passer we saw in
2017, but he's also not a replacement-level quarterback. Sixteen games from
Keenum and McCoy should be better than 16 games from McCoy, Sanchez and
Johnson.
NICK BOYLE,
TE, BALTIMORE RAVENS
The deal: Three years, $18 million
Grade: C
This is a curious move for a Ravens team that just invested
first- (Hayden Hurst) and third-round picks (Mark Andrews)
at tight end last year. Andrews was more productive in Year 1, racking up more
receiving yards (552) than Boyle (213) and Hurst (163) combined. It feels like
he has earned a starting role in the lineup as the move to tight end.
With Boyle now getting $6 million per season that suddenly
seems to leave Hurst as the odd man out, which doesn't make sense. The former
Pirates minor-leaguer was an over-aged draftee and will turn 26 in August, so
the Ravens can't exactly stash Hurst and wait for him to develop. Hurst
underwent foot surgery in August and had a screw in his foot for the entire
2018 season. John Harbaugh said he was
expecting big things from both his young tight ends at the
combine.
Boyle fits in as the best run blocker of the three, which is
going to matter in an offense built around Lamar Jackson.
His role didn't markedly increase once Jackson entered the lineup, though; he
played just less than 54 percent of the offensive snaps with Joe Flacco at
quarterback and a little more than 56 percent of the snaps with the rookie
under center.
Over that time frame, the Ravens came out with three or more
tight ends on 15.5 percent of their snaps, the third-highest rate in the
league, but they weren't very effective on those plays. Baltimore cost itself
an average of 0.3 expected points per snap with three tight ends once Jackson
took over, the fifth-worst offensive rate in the league.
Several Media Outlets pointed out on that Boyle was in
high demand from other teams as a blocking tight end. He's a useful
player. Blocking tight ends typically don't get this sort of money, though, and
there are other players in the market -- Michael Hoomanawanui comes to mind --
who offer above-average blocking ability at what will likely be a fraction of
the cost. It's difficult to see how the Ravens are going to parse out snaps at
tight end in a way that would make the investments they've made at this
position over the past 12 months make sense.
DONOVAN SMITH,
OT, TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS
The deal: Three years, $41.3 million with $27 million guaranteed
Grade: B-
Smith might have become the most anonymous member of the
NFL's eight-digit club, as Tampa Bay avoided a possible franchise tag by
signing their 2015 second-round pick. Given how Tampa structures its contracts,
we can say pretty confidently this is a two-year guaranteed pact with a team
option for 2021. Given that the franchise tag would have cost Tampa $14.1
million, the team is getting a slight discount by guaranteeing Smith a second
season in that same ballpark.
Does Smith belong alongside players such as Trent Williams and Russell Okung,
whose extensions all have a similar average annual salary? Depends on what you
value. Smith hasn't looked like a dominant left tackle, but on an offense that
has been wildly inconsistent, he has been stable.
According to STATS LLC tracking, Smith has given up either
five or 5.5 sacks in three of his four seasons as a pro, with a zero-sack
campaign in 2016 as the lone exception. Smith committed 13 penalties that
season, but he has brought down that total to eight in 2017 and six last
season. His best asset might simply be availability: Smith has played 4,142 of
Tampa's 4,171 offensive snaps since being drafted in 2015.
He doesn't turn 26 until June, and in a league in which
teams are starving for competent offensive line play, a young, league-average
left tackle was going to get paid if he hit the free market. This deal allows
Smith to avoid the franchise tag before hitting the free-agent market again at
age 29, which is a nice win for the Penn State product. Tampa gets security on
its quarterback's blindside for two years, regardless of whether it sticks
with Jameis Winston after 2019 or replaces him with a new
passer. Both parties can feel like they won a bit here.
MARGUS HUNT,
DT, INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
The deal: Two years, $9 million
Grade: C
Through the first quarter of the 2018 season, it looked like
the 31-year-old Hunt was embarking on a stunning career season for the Colts.
The Estonian racked up four sacks and nine tackles for loss through the first
four weeks of the season, at which point he missed a game with a knee injury.
After the Colts returned from their Week 6 bye, Hunt stopped stuffing the
scoresheet, with the Bengals draftee picking up just one sack and four tackles
for loss over the final nine games of the season.
Given that Hunt had shown no propensity
for morphing into the Eastern European J.J. Watt at
any point in his career before or after September 2018, it's fair to suggest
that the hottest month of his life was probably an outlier. You can understand
why the Colts would want to bring Hunt back for another year as part of their
defensive line rotation, but in a draft flush with defensive line talent, it's
fair to wonder whether Indy should have looked for a longer-term solution.
Hunt's $9 million deal isn't going to break the bank for a team with more than
$100 million in cap space, but it's also giving snaps to a player who isn't
likely to be a difference-maker.
BRANDON
GRAHAM, DE, PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
The deal: Three years, $40 million
Grade: C+
For the second straight offseason, the Eagles have managed
to keep a key defender who looked sure to leave town. It was linebacker Nigel Bradham last
year. When a huge market didn't develop for the former Bills linebacker, Philly
swooped in and re-signed Bradham to a five-year, $40 million deal. Bradham's
deal was more realistically a one-year, $5.9 million pact with a series of team
options, but general manager Howie Roseman found a way to retain a key part of
Jim Schwartz's defense.
It's even more impressive that they've managed to keep
around Graham, who comes at a much larger price. The former first-round pick
signed a three-year, $40 million deal, a comfortable raise on the four-year,
$26 million pact he signed before the 2015 season. Keeping Graham around
ensures that the Eagles can build their defensive end rotation around the
Michigan product, Michael
Bennett, and 2017 first-rounder Derek Barnett,
with Chris Long's future still unclear.
The difference between these two pacts is that Bradham's
contract came days into the free agent negotiating period, when the Eagles had
a good idea of who they were and were not going to be able to keep. Graham's
contract comes two weeks before free agency, and by making this move now, the
Eagles are probably going to be forced to make moves to create more cap room
for their defensive end. Tim Jernigan has
already been released. Nelson
Agholor is at risk.
As for Graham, this deal might represent an overpay. The
30-year-old was long underrated around the league, including by this very
organization, which only pushed him into the starting lineup on a regular basis
during his sixth season in the league. He is a stout run defender on the edge,
but he hasn't been the sort of pass-rusher who would typically come away with
this sort of contract. Over his four years as a starter, Graham has averaged
6.4 sacks and 14.3 knockdowns per season, which is right in line with guys such
as Preston Smith and Clay Matthews,
who probably aren't getting this sort of deal in free agency.
Eagles fans might rightfully point out that Graham is part
of a rotation that might prevent him from racking up better numbers, and
there's some truth to that. He has played 68.6 percent of Philadelphia's snaps
over the past two seasons. It's also an issue, though, when you're paying a
player who isn't on the field every down the sort of money he is getting from
the Eagles on this deal. Graham would have found a contract like on this on the
free market, but it might not be the right deal for the Eagles given how they
use defensive ends and their needs elsewhere on the roster.
GREG ROBINSON,
LT, CLEVELAND BROWNS
The deal: One year, $7 million
Grade: D+
On its face, you might see a great deal here. Robinson, who
hadn't lived up to expectations since being drafted with the second overall
pick by the Rams in 2014, unquestionably had the best half-season of his career
with the Browns. After undrafted rookie Desmond Harrison struggled and missed the Week 9 game
against the Chiefs with an illness, Robinson took over at left tackle and
stabilized the weakest point on Cleveland's line. According to Stats LLC
tracking, Robinson didn't allow a single sack across eight starts
and 463 offensive snaps. That's exciting.
The problem, on the other hand, is that Robinson kept seeing
yellow. He wasn't flagged in his debut start against the Chiefs, but the Auburn
product was penalized 10 times over the final seven games of the season. Does
that sound like a lot? It's a lot.
To put that in context, nobody else in the NFL had more
penalties from Weeks 10-17 than Robinson. Over that time period, Robinson
committed nine holding penalties and nobody else in the league
picked up more than five. On a per-snap basis over the entire season, Robinson
was the most-penalized offensive player in football with 400 snaps from
scrimmage or more, racking up penalties once every 46.3 snaps. The second-most
penalized offensive player was Harrison.
I wonder if the Browns are setting the bar a little low
here. Yes, Robinson is better than Harrison. It's true that you would generally
rather take a holding penalty than a sack, since a hold at least allows you to
replay the down, but that doesn't make a hold a meaningless play. One of
Robinson's holding calls wiped away a 76-yard touchdown pass to Antonio Callaway. Another took a 35-yard Nick Chubb run
off of the books. The bar for left tackles is high, but nobody in the modern
NFL has been able to sustain a steady run of success at tackle while averaging
what amounts to more than one holding penalty per week.
Could the holding penalties regress toward the mean? It's
possible, but I wouldn't hold out much significant hope. Robinson racked up a
league-high 31 holding calls from 2014-17, 10 more than any other offensive
lineman, despite playing only 51 games. He was penalized once every 60
offensive snaps, which is a little better than his rate in 2018, but not by
much.
On the other hand, again per STATS LLC tracking, Robinson
allowed 23 sacks over that same four-year span. You would also count on that to
regress toward the mean in 2019, too, and if Robinson doesn't simultaneously
cut his penalties way below his career rate, he's a problem, not a solution.
Compounding all of this is that the Browns are reportedly
paying Robinson a base salary of $7 million in 2019. The money isn't critical
to the Browns, given that they entered the offseason with more than $75 million
in cap space, but the opportunity cost is. Relying on Robinson as their left
tackle without pursuing a better long-term option is likely to slow the
franchise's development. Unless he takes a huge step forward and starts
avoiding penalties, the Browns are going to be back in the market for a left
tackle next offseason. Bringing back Robinson as a swing tackle and an option
is one thing, but passing on a tackle who would have solved their problems
in this year's
draft in order to go for another go-round with Robinson is a
step backward.
If Robinson does take that step forward,
this contract doesn't offer the Browns any protection. A one-year deal means
Robinson would be allowed to hit the market next offseason or require a
lucrative franchise tag to stick around in Cleveland. If the Browns really
thought he was their guy on the blindside, general manager John Dorsey needed
to get extra unguaranteed years onto this deal to give the team the flexibility
to keep Robinson around if he does have that breakout season. Instead, Robinson
is a short-term stopgap being paid a premium in the hopes he turns into a
long-term solution. There's not much available on the market at left tackle,
but this deal didn't solve much for Cleveland.
ROBERT ALFORD,
CB, ARIZONA CARDINALS
The deal: Three years, $22.5 million with $9 million guaranteed
Grade: D+
The Cardinals made a series of signings before the
free-agent period began. While adding Charles Clay and Brooks Reed on
one-year deals were relatively low-risk acquisitions, Cardinals general manager
Steve Keim took a much bigger swing at corner to try to find a partner
for Patrick Peterson. With a thin cornerback market waiting in
free agency, Arizona might have rationalized to itself that it needed to act
immediately by adding Alford.
The problem, though, is that Alford was one of the worst
starting cornerbacks in the NFL last season. He allowed eight touchdowns as
Atlanta's primary defender in coverage, on plays both short and long.
The Falcons gave up 11 pass plays of 35 yards or more and Alford was in
coverage on six of them, including four in one game against the Giants, who
weren't exactly the Greatest Show on Turf. Those four plays alone amounted to
200 passing yards for Eli Manning.
Alford had holding penalties declined on two of those four catches and was
flagged 12 times during the season, the seventh-highest total in the league.
Undersized corners tend to not age well, and with Alford
turning 30 in November, it's tough to count on much of resurgence. The
Cardinals clearly expect one, giving that they're paying Alford $9 million for
the 2019 season, with $13.5 million in unguaranteed salaries in 2020 and 2021
waiting if he returns to form. The Cards needed cornerback help, but after
signing Alford, they might still need it, too.
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