We finally made it. After 4½ months of basketball, the field
of potential net-cutters will be whittled to 68 teams Sunday night and the
brackets can officially be released.
Here's your updated source for all of the latest on the NCAA
tournament bubble.
There are still plenty of questions, both at the top and
bottom of the bracket. Fortunately for bubble teams and the committee, all of
the potential bid-stealer situations have been resolved, so the group of 10
committee members in New York City can spend the entire day finalizing the
bracket without worrying about available spots shrinking.
But that doesn't mean they won't face some difficult
questions. Here are some of the biggest:
1. HOW MUCH WILL
NET BE A FACTOR?
This one will dictate every decision the committee makes. If
it's used like the RPI, it will be purely a sorting tool and not used as a
tiebreaker or given heavy weight in the selection or seeding process. But this
is the NCAA's baby, its new toy. So will they use it heavily throughout the
bracket? I spoke on Saturday with two coaches whose teams are on the bubble and
that was the biggest question they had -- and the answer is simply, nobody
knows. Nobody knows the formula and nobody knows how important it will be
Sunday.
Among bubble teams, NC State and Clemson have the best NET
(NCAA Evaluation Tool) and Arizona State and St. John's have the worst.
2. WILL THE ACC
REALLY GET THREE 1-SEEDS?
The answer to this question will also help resolve the next
one on the list, but this might be the most important question heading into
Sunday.
Virginia came into Champ Week as the favorite to be the
overall 1-seed in the bracket, but the Cavaliers were bounced in the ACC
semifinals by Florida State. North Carolina was also in position to land a
1-seed, but the Tar Heels fell to a full-strength Duke team in the semis. Duke
had dropped off the 1-seed in many projected brackets heading into the ACC
tournament because of the uncertainty surrounding Zion
Williamson -- but the star freshman has returned and been the
same dominant force he was before his injury. Had the Blue Devils stumbled upon
his return, the biggest question might have been how much the committee would
factor in his injury. Now, there's a good chance Duke is the overall 1-seed in
the bracket.
Virginia should keep its 1-seed, based on its share of the
regular-season title and owning the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country (with
Michigan State). Virginia beat North Carolina in Chapel Hill, and two of their
three losses came to Duke. North Carolina has a strong case to stay on the top
line, too. The Tar Heels also own a split of the ACC regular-season title and
own two wins over Duke and a victory over Gonzaga. They also played a top-five
schedule and don't have losses outside Quadrant 1 territory. In a vacuum, all
three are deserving of a 1-seed. But the last time one league received three 1-seeds
was the Big East in 2009 -- and teams aren't seeded in a vacuum. This brings us
to.
3. DID GONZAGA'S
LOSS TO SAINT MARY'S OPEN A SPOT ON THE TOP LINE -- AND CAN MICHIGAN, MICHIGAN
STATE OR TENNESSEE JUMP GONZAGA WITH A WIN SUNDAY?
Going into Champ Week, Virginia and Gonzaga seemed assured
of 1-seeds. And then Gonzaga went out and lost to Saint Mary's -- the same team
it beat 10 days earlier on the road by 14 -- in the WCC title game by 13
points. It wasn't the worst loss in the world, but it gave people a chance to
take a closer look at the Zags' profile. And well, it's not great. The Bulldogs
are just 4-3 against Quadrant 1 teams; at least five Q1 wins fewer than each of
the other 1-seed contenders. They beat Duke back in November, and their best wins
since then came over Saint Mary's, Washington and Creighton. Not exactly early
1990s UNLV on that list. As a result, there could be at least one 1-seed up for
grabs.
Kentucky would have slotted in had it won the SEC
tournament, but the Wildcats fell to Tennessee on Saturday. Now the Volunteers
have two wins over Kentucky, a win over Gonzaga and a chance to win the SEC
tournament. If they beat Auburn on Sunday, they can make a case. Then there's
the winner of Michigan vs. Michigan State in the Big Ten. Michigan State has a
better résumé entering the game, given the Spartans' 12 Quadrant 1 wins,
regular-season sweep of Michigan and share of the Big Ten regular-season title.
It's also worth noting the Big Ten title game often ends too late to make major
changes to the bracket, but the committee will certainly have contingency
plans.
For those wondering if Kentucky can still get a 1-seed, I
leave you with this stat: Only twice in the past nine years has a 1-seed been
given to a team that didn't win either its regular-season or conference
tournament title.
4. HOW WILL THE
COMMITTEE HANDLE GAUDY MID-MAJOR RÉSUMÉS VS. MIDDLING POWER-CONFERENCE TEAMS?
This is a debate every single March, but it's more
heightened this season for several reasons: the quadrant system; the number of
below-.500 power-conference teams; and a clear quartet of potentially deserving
mid-major teams. On one hand, you have the likes of Belmont (25-5), Lipscomb
(23-7), UNC Greensboro (26-6) and Furman (22-7). On the other, you have NC
State and Clemson (9-9 in the ACC), Oklahoma and TCU (7-11 in the Big 12), Ohio
State and Indiana (8-12 in the Big Ten), and St. John's (8-10 in the Big East).
Mid-major supporters point to the sheer number of losses the
power-conference teams took over the course of the season, and the number of
chances they had to pick up Quadrant 1 and 2 victories. On the flip side,
there's a glaring lack of impressive victories among the mid-majors. Belmont's
best wins are over Lipscomb; Lipscomb beat TCU and Liberty; UNCG defeated
Furman; and Furman beat Villanova but finished tied for third in the Southern
Conference.
In the past, the committee has generally sided with the
power-conference teams, but we will see if that holds this season.
5. WILL NC STATE'S
NONCONFERENCE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE KEEP THE WOLFPACK OUT?
Perhaps the most striking part of any bubble team's résumé
this season is NC State and its No. 353-ranked nonconference strength of
schedule (SOS) -- as in, the worst in Division I men's college basketball. Poor
nonconference slates have at times been a death sentence for a team's at-large
hopes, and coach Kevin Keatts and the Wolfpack are hoping that's not the case
this season. NC State didn't just sit at home and play nobodies all November
and December, of course. It beat Auburn and Penn State, and lost to Wisconsin.
Vanderbilt didn't turn out the way it hoped, but the bottom part of the
nonconference schedule was a complete joke. And even factoring all that in,
it's still No. 353 in the country. If NC State misses out on Sunday, it won't
be hard to figure out the reason.
6. CAN TEXAS GET
IN WITH A .500 RECORD?
Texas has a very good résumé, and one that might be better
than some bubble teams on the surface. The Longhorns have a top-10 SOS, won
nine games against Quadrant 1 and 2 teams, have a great average NET win and
beat North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State. But it would
be a historical accomplishment if Shaka Smart's team were to end up in the NCAA
tournament.
Why? Texas is 16-16 on the season. No team with that record
or number of losses has been given an at-large bid. Georgia went 16-14 in 2001
and heard its name called, but the Bulldogs also played one of the toughest
schedules of all time. Alabama lost 15 games last season and made it, but the Crimson
Tide had 19 wins. And neither of those teams were .500. Even 17-16 might have
gotten it done for the Longhorns. Will the committee set the precedent of a
.500 team making the NCAA tournament?
7. HOW WILL THE
COMMITTEE ACCOUNT FOR INJURIES AND SUSPENSIONS ON THE BUBBLE?
There's no Bonzie Colson-like situation to discuss entering
Selection Sunday, unlike last season, but there were a slew of minor injuries
or suspensions.
Ohio State lost three in a row to end the regular season,
but leading scorer and rebounder Kaleb Wesson was
suspended for all three games. He returned and the Buckeyes beat Indiana before
losing to Michigan State.
Belmont was missing starting center Nick
Muszynski for the Ohio Valley title game.
For Texas, Kerwin Roach
II sat out seven games -- and the Longhorns went 2-5 in those
games.
Indiana was without some combination of De'Ron Davis, Devonte Green and Rob Phinisee for
several games during its 1-12 midseason stretch. NC State went 1-2
without Markell
Johnson, and Creighton was 0-3 without Marcus
Zegarowski. Shamorie
Ponds missed a home loss to DePaul for St. John's, and Mustapha
Heron missed three late-season games.
Which team will receive the biggest break for its key
personnel absence?
8. WHOSE SPOTS DID
OREGON AND THE ATLANTIC 10 WINNER TAKE?
Saturday went about as perfectly as possible for bubble
teams. The early morning hours of Sunday (on the East Coast) did not.
Potential AAC bid-stealers Memphis and Wichita State were
dispatched in the final minute by Houston and Cincinnati, respectively; Utah
State beat San Diego State in the Mountain West title game; Buffalo held off
Bowling Green to win the MAC; but Oregon blew out Washington in the Pac-12
title game and shrunk the field.
Prior to Oregon winning, there was only one other
bid-stealer during the latter portion of Champ Week, and that came in the Atlantic
10. Top-seeded and lone lock VCU lost to Rhode Island in the quarterfinals
Friday, and St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis will face off for the automatic
bid. Expect Oregon to find its way onto the 12-line, and the winner of the A-10
to land as a 13- or 14-seed.
Who will be the two teams impacted? NC State and Temple?
Belmont and St. John's? We wait and see.
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