Sunday, September 30, 2018

EIGHT QUESTIONS I HAVE FOR NFL WEEK 4


WILL TOM BRADY, PATRIOTS BOUNCE BACK AGAINST DOLPHINS?
By this time next week, one quarter of the 2018 NFL season will be complete (with the exception of the Panthers and Redskins, who drew a bye that's not only annoyingly early, but impedes momentum for a pair of 2-1 teams).
Elsewhere, some clubs are facing dire circumstances, while others are already setting new courses.
HERE ARE EIGHT BIG QUESTIONS ENTERING WEEK 4
1. ARE THE DOLPHINS REALLY THIS GOOD? No matter what happens this weekend, Miami, one of the league's three remaining unbeatens (Rams, Chiefs), will be alone atop the AFC East on Monday morning.
But the Dolphins have a chance to make a major statement against the faltering Patriots in Gillette Stadium, Miami's house of horrors. The Fins' lone victory over a Tom Brady-led team in Foxborough came during the 2005 season, and it was a Week 17 game when TB12 played sparingly. 
Resurgent Ryan Tannehill and Co. have come virtually out of nowhere, though naysayers will point to their opponents' combined 3-6 record. Still, the Dolphins have good team speed — especially at receiver, including ex-Pat Danny Amendola — and Tannehill's efficiency under Adam
2. ARE THE PATRIOTS REALLY THIS BAD? On the flip side, the reigning AFC champs have been wholly unimpressive, surviving the winless Texans in the opener before getting whipped by the Jags and Lions
New England appears slow and out of sync and is struggling in every phase while being particularly futile defending the run — so expect a heavy dose of Miami's Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore.
Though the Patriots are staring at their first 1-3 start since 2001 — ironically, Brady's first season as starter during a dynastic genesis — they're also 52-3 at home against AFC opponents since 2009, including 9-0 against the Dolphins.
3. HOW WILL THE ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS FARE? Cleveland's Baker Mayfield and Arizona's Josh Rosen will be NFL starters for the first time Sunday, joining 2018 first-round draft mates Sam Darnold and Josh Allen in savior roles.
Yet none face especially good odds this week. The Jets' Darnold must overcome Jacksonville's loaded (and probably ornery) defense to avert a third straight defeat. Allen is taking the Bills into Lambeau Field, where the Packers surely won't take Buffalo as lightly as the Vikings did in Week 3. Rosen is being asked to revive the league's least effective offense as the Cardinals host the division rival Seahawks.
And Mayfield doesn't have history on his side. He'll become the Browns' 30th starting QB since the franchise's rebirth in 1999. The others own a 2-26-1 mark in their maiden Cleveland starts. Mayfield provided a palpable spark while leading a comeback against the Jets in his Week 3 debut. Now he'll head to Oakland to face the wounded Raiders, who have been competitive in every game even though they have yet to win.
4. HOW WILL THE DALLAS OFFENSE LOOK? Jerry Jones isn't ready to push the panic button, but that could change if the Cowboys (1-2) lose to the steadily improving Lions (1-2). 
My preseason positional analysis rated Dallas' group of receivers as the NFL's worst. That's played out as predicted with none of Dak Prescott's targets averaging more than 44 receiving yards per game. Yet — fairly inexplicably — the Cowboys are throwing 60% of the time ... even though their 30th-ranked offense averages a league-best 6 yards per rushing attempt ... and even though they've trailed by more than two scores for less than six minutes this season.
Sure seems to make more sense for Prescott to drop back less — especially when facing Detroit's top-ranked pass defense — and hand off more to Ezekiel Elliott, who hasn't had more than 17 carries in a game this season.
5. WHAT WILL PATRICK MAHOMES DO FOR AN ENCORE? We know you're curious — Kansas City's 23-year-old wunderkind will need four touchdown passes Monday night to wrest Peyton Manning's record for the most (16 in 2013) through a season's first four games. To accomplish this, coincidentally, Mahomes will have to light up a Denver defense that once carried Manning to a Super Bowl win.
Granted these aren't the 2015 Broncos, but this should still be an interesting test for Mahomes given it's the first time he'll face a group he's essentially already seen and vice versa. He made his NFL debut in last year's regular-season finale at Denver, passing for 284 yards and throwing his only career interception (so far) in a 27-24 Chiefs win. Be interesting to see what Von Miller, Chris Harris and Co. have in store for the league's newest superstar given they'll have more than game film to rely upon.
6. WILL JAMEIS WINSTON PLAY? The once (and future?) face of the Buccaneers is back from his three-game personal conduct suspension. He returns to a surprising team that shares the NFC South lead, thanks largely to a record performance by stand-in quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the first player in NFL history to post three straight 400-yard passing days.
Tampa Bay coach Dirk Koetter won't say who's starting Sunday in Chicago, but all signs point to Fitzpatrick as the choice given his hot hand and Winston's rust. But what if Fitzpatrick struggles against Khalil Mack and a stout Bears defense? Will Koetter have a quick hook? And what about the fact the Bucs head into their bye following the game?
Fitzpatrick, 35, is a nice story, but he's not going to command a $100 million deal when his contract expires in a few months. Winston might be in line for that kind of payday, but the Buccaneers need to determine that quickly or otherwise adapt to the realization they'll likely need to reset the position entirely next spring.
7. WILL CLAY MATTHEWS GET FLAGGED AGAIN? If the Packers linebacker is called for roughing the passer a fourth consecutive week, he'll match the number of times he was penalized for that infraction over the first nine seasons of his career.
Matthews' frustration continues to mount. His, um, illegal hit on Kirk Cousins in Week 2negated what would've been a game-sealing interception for Green Bay. Last Sunday's collision wasn't as pivotal, but Matthews seemed to make a good-faith effort to avoid any kind of violation as he took Alex Smith to the turf. He called the league "soft" afterward.
Matthews isn't alone. Aside from him, 31 other roughing penalties on quarterbacks have been called league-wide so far. Matthews will likely be in position to add to that total given no team has allowed more sacks than Buffalo's 14.
The league announced Thursday afternoon that, after an internal conference call by the competition committee, the roughing rule will not be officiated any differently going forward.
8. WHITHER THE 49ERS? With Jimmy Garoppolo joining Jerick McKinnon with a season-ending knee injury, where does this team go?
Second-year quarterback C.J. Beathard earned locker room respect last year, toiling for an undermanned and underwhelming team before Garoppolo arrived. Now he'll have to prove he's a viable NFL starter over the balance of a long season. If he's lucky, NFL co-rushing leader Matt Breida and second-year tight end George Kittle will continue to flourish. 
On the defensive side, lineman DeForest Buckner is having a breakout September with 3½ sacks (more than he had last year). He needs 2017 first rounders Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster to also find an upward trajectory.
But barring a remarkable recovery, San Francisco will likely spend this season assessing its roster — kicker Robbie Gould and defensive back Jimmie Ward are the most notable names in the final year of their deals — with an eye toward what should be an active approach to free agency in 2019.


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