Saturday, October 6, 2018

MLB THE SHOW 18


MY MLB PLAYOFFS 2018 SIM RESULTS
With the Wild Card games settled, I used MLB the Show 18 to simulate the results for the remainder of the 2018 MLB Playoffs.
The 2018 Major League Baseball playoffs are officially underway. With the two Wild Card play-in games settled (our Sim correctly predicted one of the games), the MLB playoff brackets are set.
The Colorado Rockies topped the Chicago Cubs in extra innings, while the New York Yankees blasted the Oakland Athletics. This sets up Divisional Series matchups between the Atlanta Braves vs L.A. Dodgers, Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Indians vs Houston Astros and, lastly, New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox.
Because my initial season Sim was so incredibly wrong – picking the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series – I’m gone ahead and re-simmed the MLB playoffs using the teams that are actually in it.
Obviously, pitching matchups are so unpredictable in the playoffs, so I just did a standard playoff sim using the team’s top four starters. Aside from determining the starter, I had zero input on how the games unfolded. I simmed back-to-back games until one team won the required amount, and then that team moved on.
With all of that set, let’s see who MLB The Show 18 predicts to win the 2018 World Series.
NLDS: COLORADO ROCKIES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS
This sim is actually being posted after the results of the first game. The Brewers also decided to go with a “bullpen” staff to pitch the first game, which is obviously hard to do with a simulation, so I picked their No. 1 starter in the game Zach Davies. The Rockies’ real-life game one starter, Antonio Senzatela, also wasn’t featured on the in-game roster, so I went with their No. 1 starter, Jon Gray.
GAME 1: BREWERS 5, ROCKIES 4
The Brewers offense got to Gray early, scoring one run in each of the first three innings. However, the Rockies tied it up in the top of the fifth with a two-RBI double by Charlie Blackmon (2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, R), who was then driven in by DJ LeMaheiu on a single. The Brewers responded in the bottom half of the inning with a solo shot by Lorenzo Cain (3-3, HR, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 R). An insurance run in the bottom of the seventh gave the Brewers all they needed to hold the lead for game one.
GAME 2: BREWERS 3, ROCKIES 0
Brewers starter Chase Anderson absolutely dominated this one, tossing eight innings of shutout ball. The Brewers did just enough offensively, led by Ryan Braun who went 3 for 4 with a home run and two RBIs.
GAME 3: BREWERS 4, ROCKIES 1
Bust out the brooms because the Brewers sweep the Rockies after another pitching gem. Jhoulys Chacin went six innings and gave up only one earned run. Meanwhile, a three-run blast by Eric Thames in the fourth was all the Brewers needed to take the series.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS WIN 3-0
NLDS: ATLANTA BRAVES VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS
This sim was also conducted after the conclusion of game one of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers. However, the starters for the game were both announced beforehand and available in the game.
GAME 1: DODGERS 5, BRAVES 3
Some late-game heroics by Chris Taylor gave the Dodgers a game one win. Heading into the bottom of the ninth inning all tied-up at three, Taylor crushed a two-run home run to center field off Braves relief pitcher A.J. Minter
GAME 2: DODGERS 9, BRAVES 1
Veteran Clayton Kershaw overcame a shaky first inning in which he loaded the bases with only one out. He escaped the jam with limited damage, only giving up an RBI single to Johan Camargo. From there, he cruised through seven innings, earning a game two win with the help of a potent offense that saw home runs by Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig. Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger also recorded two RBIs each.
GAME 3: BRAVES 5, DODGERS 2
With Sean Newcomb getting the start at home, the Braves battled to a five to two win. The Braves young offense got to Rich Hill early, forcing him to exit after just 4.2 IP (5 ER, 4 BB). Second-baseman Ozzie Albies (1-4, HR, RBI, R) and right fielder Nick Markakis (2-2, 2B, RBI, R) led the offense.
GAME 4: BRAVES 3, DODGERS 1
Game four was pretty quiet offensively, with the only runs coming in the seventh inning. Logan Forsythe got the Dodgers on the board in the top of the seventh with an RBI double, but the Braves responded with a rally in the bottom half of the inning. With Johan Camargo and Danny Santana on, Dansby Swanson grounded to right for an RBI single. He was then driven in by a double by Kurt Suzuki. The win forced a game five.
GAME 5: DODGERS 9, BRAVES 5
I went back to the game one pitching matchup for the series finale. It was a back-and-forth slugfest between the two teams. The Dodgers scored early on a three-run home run by Justin Turner in the bottom of the first. Seager would carry the offense the rest of the way, going 3-4 with two home runs, four RBIs, and three runs scored. Mike Foltynewicz lasted only four innings while giving up six earned runs. His struggles could be attributed to a lack of control as he walked six batters.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS WIN 3-2
ALDS: CLEVELAND INDIANS VS HOUSTON ASTROS
The 2017 World Series champs meet the 2016 World Series runner-up. With both teams featuring strong offenses and dominating pitching staffs, this is a fantastic matchup on paper. With the probable starters already revealed at the time of the sim, I was able to get the pitching matchups accurate for at least the first three games.
GAME 1: INDIANS 5, ASTROS 2
Game one featured two superstar pitchers in Corey Kluber for the Indians and Justin Verlander for the Astros. But Verlander struggled early and was forced to leave after just five innings (5 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO). Kluber, on the other hand, coasted through seven innings, giving up two earned runs while striking out 10. While the Astros managed to get on base, they failed to drive in runs during key moments of the game.
GAME 2: ASTROS 14, INDIANS 2
What a walloping this one was. After a three-run fourth, the Astros exploded in the seventh inning, scoring seven runs on seven hits. Marwin Gonzalez finished the game 2-4 with a home run and five RBIs, while Josh Reddick and Carlos Correa each added two RBIs. Despite the score, it was actually close until the seventh, with Carrasco only giving up four runs on six innings. The bulk of the damage was done on Tyler Olson (0.2 IP, 6 H, 7 ER).
GAME 3: INDIANS 9, ASTROS 2
This time, it was the Indians turn to come alive at the plate. Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez led the charge with three RBIs each. That was all Trevor Bauer (7.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 5 SO) would need to get the Indians back on top.
GAME 4: ASTROS 9, INDIANS 5
The Indians jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning and looked to cruise to game-four win; however, an eight-run sixth inning by the Astros kept the series alive. Charlie Morton overcame his first inning struggles and ended up with a decent game (5 IP, 3 ER, 6 BB, 7 SO). He was aided by an offense that included Evan Gattis (2-3, HR, 3 RBI), Alex Bregman (2-5, 2B, 2RBI), and Marwin Gonzalez (1-4, 2RBI).
GAME 5: INDIANS 6, ASTROS 1
A rematch of game one almost went exactly the same way. Verlander, once again struggled (5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO), while the offense failed to muster any runs. The Indians couldn’t have asked for a better start from ace Corey Kluber who pitched a complete game (9 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 SO).
CLEVELAND INDIANS WIN 3-2
ALDS: NEW YORK YANKEES VS BOSTON RED SOX
Baseball fans couldn’t have asked for a better ALDS matchup than between AL East divisional rivals the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. The Yankees are powered by a high octane offense, while the Red Sox boast both an incredibly dominant pitching staff and a solid offense of their own. In a clash of titans, who will come out on top?
GAME 1: RED SOX 9, YANKEES 8
Game one certainly lived up to the hype. A back-and-forth slugfest ended in the bottom of the ninth inning with a solo home run by Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers. Both pitchers struggled mightily, which was kind of unexpected when you have Chris Sale on the mound (5.2 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 6 SO). But an offense with J.D. Martinez (2-3, HR, 2B, 3 RBI), Xander Bogaerts (2-4, HR, 5 RBI) and Mookie Betts (2-4, 2 2B, 2 R), can help.
GAME 2: YANKEES 2, RED SOX 1
Game two couldn’t have been more opposite as both offenses were held in check the entire game. Masahiro Tanaka was brilliant, pitching 6.2 innings and holding the Red Sox to just one earned run. Aaron Hicks was the savior for the Yankees, driving in two RBIs on a triple in the top of the sixth.
GAME 3: YANKEES 1, RED SOX 0
They say pitching reigns supreme in the postseason and that looks to be the case in this series as both offenses were shut down for the second straight game. Luis Severino pitched a gem for the Yankees going eight strong innings and striking out 12. Gary Sanchez was responsible for all of the game’s offense, hitting a solo home run in the bottom of the fifth.
GAME 4: YANKEES 15, RED SOX 0
Holy cow! I don’t think anyone expects to see this coming. Chris Sale, pitching on short rest, struggles once again, giving up 6 ER in five innings. Meanwhile, the Yankees, led by C.C. Sabathia (7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 SO), exploded on offense. Gary Sanchez remained hot, going 3-5 with two home runs and six RBIs.
NEW YORK YANKEES WIN 3-1
NLCS: LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS
After sweeping the Rockies, the Brewers enter the National League Championship Series rested and ready to go. The Dodgers, meanwhile, were pushed to the brink but they’ve got the playoff experience. At this point, it’s nearly impossible to predict pitching matchups, so I went down the in-game staff order for the best possible matchups.
GAME 1: DODGERS 11, BREWERS 0
The Dodgers, who came up just short last year, looked like a team on a mission. They were led by starter Clayton Kershaw who went all nine innings and struck out 11 while giving up zero runs. The offense was carried by Yasiel Puig (2 HR, 4 RBIs), Chris Taylor (3-4, HR, 3B, 2 RBI, 3 R) and Corey Seager (2-4, 2 2B, 3 RBIs, 2 R).
GAME 2: BREWERS 4, DODGERS 1
The Brewers rebounded in game two thanks to a solid pitching performance by ace Chase Anderson (6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 SO). The Dodgers struck first in the fourth on a Justin Turner RBI double, but the Brewers’ bats found life in the seventh inning. Manny Pina jump-started things with a two-run RBI double.
GAME 3: BREWERS 3, DODGERS 1
Another dominant pitching performance held the Dodgers offense in check. A normally potent offense, Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin went five innings, giving up just one earned run while striking out seven. The Brewers scored all three of their runs in the third on home runs by Lorenzo Cain (2 RBI) and Travis Shaw (1 RBI).
GAME 4: BREWERS 5, DODGERS 4
The Brewers stayed hot and got one game closer to punching their ticket to the World Series. Travis Shaw was, once again, the hero, driving in three runs on a home run. The Brewers jumped out to a five-run lead and held on, despite a valiant comeback attempt that saw the Dodgers score three runs combined in the eighth and ninth innings.
GAME 5: DODGERS 4, BREWERS 3
On the brink of elimination, the Dodgers turned to ace Clayton Kershaw. The Brewers got to him early, jumping out to an early three-run lead. The Dodgers clawed their way back, though, and a ninth-inning RBI from Corey Seager forced extra innings. Patience at the plate would pay off for the Dodgers as Jacob Barnes walked three batters in the top of the 11th, including walking in the game-winning run (Turner walked, bringing in Logan Forsythe).
GAME 6: BREWERS 11, DODGERS 1
The Brewers jumped out to a three-run lead and made sure not to look back. Keeping their foot on the pedal, they scored six runs in the fifth, extending their lead 9-1. Insurance runs in the sixth and ninth innings were unnecessary, but more of a statement rather.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS WIN 4-2
ALCS: CLEVELAND INDIANS VS NEW YORK YANKEES
After a heartbreaking loss to the Chicago Cubs in the 2016 World Series, the Indians are looking to return to the spotlight. But in their way are the Bronx Bombers who smashed the MLB leader in wins, the Boston Red Sox. The Indians managed to knock off last year’s defending champs, but do they have the pitching to stop the Yankees high-powered offense?
GAME 1: YANKEES 4, INDIANS 2
Well, Corey Kluber managed to slow the Yankees offense down, but it wasn’t enough as the Yankees stole a win in extras. Kluber held the Yankees in check for seven innings, giving up only one earned run on a Giancarlo Stanton single that brought in Aaron Judge. The Yankees took the lead on a Bradon Drury single, but the Indians tied in the bottom of the ninth on a Francisco Lindor sacrifice fly. The teams would battle for four more innings until Giancarlo Stanton would launch a two-run home run in the top of the 13th inning.
GAME 2: YANKEES 7, INDIANS 4
Up three to two in the top of the ninth inning, Gary Sanchez made sure the Indians would have no shot at coming back. The Yankees slugger launched a grand slam which proved to be the difference-maker as the Indians rally in the bottom of the ninth fell short this time.
GAME 3: INDIANS 5, YANKEES 3
Led by Trevor Bauer (7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 SO), the Indians got a much-needed win in Yankees stadium.  The offense came to life against J.A. Happ, with Michael Brantley (1-4, 2B) and Edwin Encarnacion (2-4, 2 RBI, R) each getting two RBIs.
GAME 4: YANKEES 9, INDIANS 4
With the win, the Yankees pulled within one game of returning to their first World Series since winning it in 2009. They got close to returning last year but fell just short. What a difference an offseason makes as newcomer Giancarlo Stanton (3-4, 2 HR, 2B, 4 RBI) was very much a factor in their game four win. Fellow slugger Aaron Judge also had a home run with two RBIs. C.C. Sabathia pitched eight strong innings, giving up four earned runs.
GAME 5: INDIANS 6, YANKEES 3
Facing elimination, the Indians turned to ace Corey Kluber, while the Yankees sent out their own ace in Luis Severino. Again, the result was extra innings but this time it was the Indians who won in 10 innings. A two-run RBI double by Francisco Lindor gave the Indians the lead, and Michael Brantley added an insurance run. Time to return to Cleveland!
GAME 6: YANKEES 7, INDIANS 3
The Yankees punched their World Series ticket in dramatic fashion. Down three to one, the Yankees rallied for four runs in the eighth inning. The charge was led by none other than Giancarlo Stanton who kicked things off with two-run double to left field. With the game tied at three, Greg Bird gave the Yankees the lead on a two-run home that scored Judge.
NEW YORK YANKEES WIN 4-2
WORLD SERIES: NEW YORK YANKEES VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS
The 2018 World Series features two teams with dramatically different pasts. The Brewers haven’t appeared in the World Series since 1982 when they were in the American League. They ultimately lost the World Series to the Cardinals. The Yankees, meanwhile, have a long history of winning but haven’t appeared in a World Series since their 2009 championship. They got close to returning last year but lost in seven games to the eventual champions Houston Astros.
GAME 1: YANKEES 8, BREWERS 7
The Brewers proved they can keep pace with the Yankees’ high-powered offense but it was the Yankees who came out on top in game one. The Bronx Bombers crushed three home runs (Greg Bird, Brandon Drury, Aaron Judge). But it was Bird’s home run in the top of the ninth on the normally dominant relief pitcher Josh Hader that proved to be the difference maker.
GAME 2: YANKEES 5, BREWERS 2
Both Masahiro Tanaka (6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER) and Jhoulys Chacin (6 IP, 7 H, 2 ER) had strong starts for their respective teams, but the Yankees bats came to life at the end of the game. The Yankees took the lead 2-1 in the top of the sixth before added three insurance runs in the eight.
GAME 3: YANKEES 6, BREWERS 5
The Brewers jumped out to a two-run lead in the first inning and entered the seventh inning ahead 5-2, but let’s face it; you can’t stop the Yankees offense. You can only try to contain it. And they failed to do so. When the Yankees front office put together a lineup that includes Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gary Sanchez, they had in mind innings like the seventh which saw the Yankees rally for four runs. Judge hit an RBI-scoring sac fly, while Stanton (2-4 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R) and Sanchez (3-4, HR, 2 RBI, R) both homered.
GAME 4: BREWERS 4, YANKEES 0
The Brewers somehow managed to shut out the Yankees offense and stave off a World Series Sweep. Christian Yelich set the tone early, hitting a solo home run in the first inning. Orlando Arcia would add a two-run double in the fifth. The biggest difference here was the Brewers ability to completely shut down the Yankees offense – something we had not seen all series.
GAME 5: YANKEES 4, BREWERS 1
Both Luis Severino and Chase Anderson had solid starts. Anderson held the Yankees to just two runs on six innings. The two runs were all the Yankees would need with Luis Severino on the mound (7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 11 SO).
And just like that, the New York Yankees are back on top of the MLB mountain. Sure, a lot of fans will be awfully angry to see them hoist another championship trophy, but I say it’s good to have the villains back.


No comments: