MY NFL WEEK 4 PREVIEW

Early division races and Mayfield’s debut as a starter headline week 4 storylines

Through three weeks, the NFL has achieved some balance. Pittsburgh's Monday night win over Tampa Bay, it's first of the year, left the league with three unbeaten teams and three winless teams. So while they're crowing over fast starts in Miami, Los Angeles and Kansas City, fans in Houston, Oakland and Arizona are wondering what happened to their teams. Week 4 brings with it some traditionally fierce intradivision matchups as well as some games with extremely interesting subplots — looking at you, Baker Mayfield. Let's take a look at the games, as teams start to try and separate and one team in particular tries to avoid what would be a shocking 1-3 start.

CINCINNATI AT ATLANTA

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)

As a team, the Bengals came back to earth against Carolina, losing 31-21 last week. As a player, Andy Dalton reconnected with the earth's surface so violently that he left an impact crater. Three of Dalton's four interceptions were of major consequence to the outcome, as they either stalled out promising Cincinnati drives, set up the Panthers with great field position, or both. Cam Newton didn't do much, but he didn't have to, as Christian McCaffrey shredded Cincy's defense for 184 yards rushing. The Bengals also may be without A.J. Green in this one, as he left the Carolina game with a groin injury. This is all good news for Atlanta, a team that needs a win after getting strafed by Drew Brees in its own building while also losing Ricardo Allen for the year in the process. The game itself was back and forth, and Matt Ryan put up huge numbers. But a loss is a loss, and 1-2 doesn't look good, while 1-3 would look even worse in the competitive NFC South. Calvin Ridley had a breakout game last week, and while it would be tempting to say that the Falcons should run the ball, given what McCaffrey did to the Bengals, letting Matt Ryan cook is probably a good plan.

TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)

FitzMagic left the building, at least for the first half, against Pittsburgh. It returned with a vengeance in the second half, but it was too little, too late. Does a loss lead to Tampa coming back with Jameis Winston against the Bears, or do the Bucs let Ryan Fitzpatrick try to catch lightning in a bottle at least one more time? Neither man is particularly mobile, which may be the most important factor in this game, with Khalil Mack making the Bears' pass rush a much more fearsome outfit. Mitchell Trubisky still hasn't gotten going the way Bears fans want him to, and if the Mack-led pass rush doesn't get home early and often and force whoever is quarterbacking Tampa into turnovers, Chicago might need some serious points to win this game. Whichever team wins moves to a surprising 3-1 on the season, though looking at either squad, you might say that 2-2 is a much more appropriate record for both.

DETROIT AT DALLAS

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)

But for the Browns' stunning comeback and the Bills' demolition of Minnesota, the Lions authored the league's most surprising result of Week 3, with Matt Patricia's team thoroughly outplaying the Patriots, possessing the ball for nearly 40 minutes and notching their first individual 100-yard rushing performance since Thanksgiving 2013. No coach in the league may have needed a win more than Patricia, who suddenly won't hear nearly as many whispers about losing his locker room after thumping his mentor's team on national television. Dallas didn't have much to offer against Seattle, and Earl Thomas, whose stated desire is to play for the Cowboys, picked off Dak Prescott twice en route to a 24-13 win. Dallas might want to think about handing it off more to Ezekiel Elliott, who gashed Seattle for 127 yards on only 16 carries, particularly because the Lions have the league's worst rush defense.

BUFFALO AT GREEN BAY

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)

In terms of pure shock value, no team's win in Week 3 surpassed Buffalo's rout of Minnesota. The Bills got two rushing touchdowns from Josh Allen, whose three fumbles were all recovered by Buffalo, and dominated the Vikings from start to finish. Minnesota only attempted four non-quarterback runs in the game; six in total. Those six runs represent the fewest since the merger. The Bills will have a tougher task this week, as they go up against a better quarterback in the form of Aaron Rodgers, though truth be told, the Packers might not try to run the ball much more than Minnesota did. Green Bay got drilled by Washington, shredded by Adrian Peterson and was never really competitive in the game. Mike McCarthy's team has been only middle of the pack offensively and has scuffled on the defensive side, particularly against the run. Buffalo is still not a very good football team, and the Packers need this win as they try to climb to the top of a somewhat muddled NFC North.

PHILADELPHIA AT TENNESSEE

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)

The Eagles gutted out a win in Carson Wentz's return to the lineup, and Wentz was fine — not too good, not too bad. That owes both to some rust on his part but also to an Indianapolis defense that appears to be considerably better than those of recent vintage. Philly is 2-1 but hasn't looked much like a defending Super Bowl champion yet this season. Perhaps that is due to change now that Wentz has a full week of game prep and action under his belt. The Titans and Jags played the league's ugliest game so far this season last week, unless you like field goals. Both Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert are questionable at this point, and if for some reason neither man can go, the Titans would be in quite a predicament. The Titans are somehow 2-1, though that record doesn't seem to fit them, at least in terms of the eye test, But if Wentz is back and humming, Philly may help them find their level sooner rather than later.

HOUSTON AT INDIANAPOLIS

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)

The Texans are winless, Deshaun Watson is under pressure on almost half of his dropbacks, and even three J.J. Watt sacks couldn't change their fortunes. Things aren't exactly great in southeast Texas these days. Houston hasn't been too good against the pass and isn't cashing in drives with points, ranking eighth in offensive yards but only 22nd in points. Indy might be able to exploit that weakness in pass defense, and its own defenders appear considerably improved from last year. An 0-4 start would just about doom the Texans, who, I must remind you, were a trendy Super Bowl pick in the AFC. Really, both teams are desperate here — the Texans for previously stated reasons and the Colts because they have to have seen what happened in the Jacksonville-Tennessee game, and they figure that the AFC South might be up for grabs, after all. Either Watson has a big game and gets things humming, or it's going to be the start of a long, ugly autumn in Houston.

MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)

New England is 1-2 but gets Julian Edelman back after this game, and Josh Gordon figures to get up to speed sooner rather than later. Those two elements would address the Pats' biggest problem, which has been the fact that their pass catchers haven't generated nearly enough separation, thus allowing Rob Gronkowski to be blanketed by double coverage. The Pats' defense has been uncharacteristically bad as well, but most people who know Bill Belichick know that he'll get that figured out soon enough. The point here is that the undefeated Dolphins need to strike while the iron is hot and try to get to 4-0, three games up on the Pats, with a head-to-head win in hand. Miami's defense hasn't been good in the traditional sense, but it has been opportunistic, which has created some short fields for Ryan Tannehill and the offense. The Dolphins will need to keep both of those trends going this week if they want to spring what would still very much be an upset over New England.

NEW YORK JETS AT JACKSONVILLE

SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)

The Jets' mantra heading into last Thursday's game with Cleveland was, "Don't be the team that loses to the Browns." Well, they lost to the Browns, Sam Darnold looked overwhelmed in the face of a pretty good Cleveland defense, and now they're the answer to a trivia question. Things actually get more difficult for New York, as it has to face an angry Jacksonville team coming off an ugly loss against Tennessee. The Jags have some injury concerns, particularly with Leonard Fournette, T.J. Yeldon and Calais Campbell, but if any or all of those guys play, they'll be in good shape. Jacksonville was primed for a letdown in Week 3 after demolishing New England a week prior, and a letdown is exactly what happened. The Jags will be licking their chops to face a Jets team whose season highlight film might end up being nothing more than a replay of Week 1's win over the Lions.

CLEVELAND AT OAKLAND

SUNDAY, 4:05 P.M. ET (FOX)

Baker Mayfield was the story of Week 3, and now he's the Cleveland Browns' starting quarterback. Cleveland's rally, driven almost entirely by Mayfield's sharp work, felt like something out of a movie. Now Browns fans, unburdened by a crushing losing streak, can focus on things like winning a game on Sunday, something they haven't done since 2015, and possibly inserting themselves into the conversation as an early AFC North contender. Mayfield will doubtless have some growing pains, but he'll be bolstered by a defense that looks better by the week, led by Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, as well as a running game that looked solid against the Jets. Oakland is winless and can't get after the quarterback, which should be the primary way any team tries to rattle a rookie QB. But hey, there's nothing the Raiders could have done about that. It isn't like they had the league's pre-eminent edge rusher and traded him because they didn't want to give him a long-term deal or anything. Anyway, a loss to Cleveland would be another tough pill to swallow for Raiders fans.

SEATTLE AT ARIZONA

SUNDAY, 4:05 P.M. ET (FOX)

Seattle desperately needed a win, and it got one over Dallas, thanks in large part to solid work from Russell Wilson, a strong ground game and two interceptions from Earl Thomas. The reward is a floundering Cardinals team that just handed the reins of the offense, and by extension the franchise, to Josh Rosen. Rosen will make his first career start, and while it will be at home and against a Seahawks defense that is a far cry from the Legion of Boom, one finds it hard to imagine Rosen lighting it up. That having been said, perhaps his taking over under center creates a spark similar to what Baker Mayfield has brought to the Browns. In any event, the Cardinals need something or else they'll be 0-4, having firmly established themselves as the cellar of the NFC West. A Seahawks win won't have anyone putting them up there with the Rams, but it will allow them to lurk, especially given Arizona's struggles and San Francisco's sudden, severe issues at quarterback.

NEW ORLEANS AT NEW YORK GIANTS

SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (CBS)

New Orleans' offense? Fantastic, as per usual. New Orleans' defense? Dreadful, as per usual. Any gains the Saints made last year in terms of their pass defense appear to have vanished, as they've been lit up two out of three games and nearly lost to Tyrod Taylor in the other one. That they're 2-1 and not 0-3 is a testament to bad Cleveland field-goal kicking and the greatness of Drew Brees. Brees is playing like a man in his late 20s, not his late 30s, and even in his first outdoor game of the year, he should be a safe bet to put up big numbers, especially to Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. The Giants finally got a win, besting Houston, but there are still major questions for New York, primarily on offense. Eli Manning and Co. have topped 20 points only once so far this season and figure to need plenty more than that to keep pace with Brees and the Saints. Better play from the offensive line would be a start, but that might be too much to ask.

SAN FRANCISCO AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (CBS)

Jimmy Garoppolo's season is over, and with him gone, you could say the same for San Francisco as a team. C.J. Beathard will step into the starting lineup, but nothing about him suggests that the Niners will be able to compete on a regular basis. The Chargers had the misfortune of running into Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff within the first three weeks of the season, so their test will be considerably easier this week, something that will likely reflect on the scoreboard. Philip Rivers has been very good thus far, and the Chargers have displayed some nice balance on offense in the form of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler's ground game contributions. This is the classic game that the Chargers should win handily but manage to screw up, but this time it would seem that the deck is stacked too heavily against their opponent. I wouldn't start any Niners players in fantasy football, if I were you.

BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH

SUNDAY, 8:20 P.M. ET (NBC)

I don’t like the Steelers chances in this matchup Here’s why! This game is always one of major interest, even if the violence of the rivalry has diminished over time. Are the Ravens the team that cruised past the Broncos and battered the Bills, or are they the team that looked hapless, helpless and clueless against the Bengals? For that matter, are the Steelers really going to be able to stop anyone on defense this year? Keith Butler's charges nearly gave away a 20-point halftime lead to Tampa Bay despite having notched three interceptions and a fumble recovery in the first 30 minutes. It feels like this is a game that comes down to which quarterback performs better, and if that's the case, it's hard not to give a clear edge to the Steelers, who saw Ben Roethlisberger make some excellent throws, especially late, to seal the win in Tampa. Baltimore's defense has been stingy against the pass, but Andy Dalton is the best quarterback that it's faced to this point, and he shredded it. Oh, and the Ravens don't have Jimmy Smith for one more game. If Pittsburgh gives Roethlisberger time to throw, he'll do what Dalton did — and then some. 

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER

MONDAY, 8:15 P.M. ET (ESPN)

Patrick Mahomes, as you've doubtless heard by now, established a new NFL record with 13 touchdown passes in the season's first three games, breaking Peyton Manning's old mark of 12. Mahomes is the real deal, which is more than you can say for Kansas City's defense, which is worst in the league in yards allowed, at 474 per game, and third worst in points allowed, with 92 total through three games. That said, Mahomes has been so good that K.C.'s awful defense simply hasn't mattered. Denver will try to harass and pressure Mahomes into mistakes, and the crowd will no doubt be loud, but it might not matter. The NFL is a league of adjustments, but there aren't many adjustments to make when a player has Mahomes' physical skills, arm strength and smarts. Denver fans might not have many chances to do their famed "incomplete" chant in this one. Their best defense might be a Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay-based offense that tries to possess the ball and keep it away from the Chiefs.