MY 7 KEY STORYLINES FOR WEEK 5 OF THE 2018 NFL SEASON

The first month of the season is in the books and divisional races are shaping up. Week 5 of the 2018 NFL season has seven key storylines that can swing how the rest of the year goes.

The quarter-mark of the 2018 NFL season has passed by already, and it’s shaping up to be a furious dash the rest of the way if the season continues the way it’s been going. Results have been unpredictable, and injuries have already started to affect team outlooks. Another wave of adjustments is coming as bye weeks began last week.

There’s still time for middling teams to find their stride and create a winning streak. But the NFC East is the only division that doesn’t have a 3-1 or 4-0 division leader, so falling behind now is costly.

There are seven key storylines this week based on the matchups and possible implications. Some are going to have a significant swing in the playoff race, while others could determine job status in the near future.

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT THE STORYLINES AND GIVE SOME PREDICTIONS.

7. THE STEELERS ARE IN A MUST-WIN GAME

It’s been a nightmarish start to the year for the Steelers. They’ve slipped to 1-2-1 with an uneven offensive and terrible defense, and the schedule doesn’t ease up at any point this season. Hosting Atlanta this week, the Steelers are in a must-win situation.

Last year’s defensive improvement was short-lived, as the Steelers are hovering near the bottom of the league in major statistical benchmarks and 19th in DVOA. The secondary has been a major source of mistakes and disappointment despite continued resources and youth being allocated into the group. And the pass-rush has manufactured just six sacks since obliterating Tyrod Taylor seven times in the opener.

But it’s not like prior years where the offense picked up the slack. They’ve missed Le’Veon Bell’s ability to draw defenders’ attention in key situations, and their pathetic 15/49 third-down conversion rate reflects some of the difference between him and James Conner.

Their matchup with Atlanta is likely to be an offensive struggle. The Falcons can’t get stops as the middle of their defense has been decimated by season-ending injuries, meaning the Steelers need to utilize Conner, Vance McDonald, and Antonio Brown between the hashes as much as possible.

Atlanta will put up points with ease unless the Steelers suddenly figure out that having Artie Burns play press-man and replacing Joe Haden with Cameron Sutton would help a little bit. It may not be enough even with that.

Still, Atlanta’s lacking the defensive presence they were built for, so Pittsburgh should get enough on the board to earn the win.

PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH 38-35

6. THE REDSKINS CAN TAKE EARLY CONTROL OF THE NFC EAST

At 2-1 and in way-too-early possession of first place in the NFC East, the Washington Redskins have been a decent surprise. Predictably, their blend of offensive playmakers with Jay Gruden has been up-and-down, but most would be happy that they entered their early Week 4 bye with a winning record.

The Redskins need to stack wins while the rest of the division tries to find their footing. Both the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles have been inconsistent and struggling at 2-2 and with tough matchups this week. Washington travels to New Orleans this week, and it’s a great opportunity to prove themselves.

Specifically, we need to see what this defense is all about. They rank in the top-three in points, yards, and passing yards per-game. But they’ve also played Sam Bradford, a rusty Andrew Luck, and hobbled Aaron Rodgers. Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara bring a completely different caliber of offense.

There’s no question the front seven has been bolstered to be effective against the pass and run. They’re deeper than they’ve been in years and able to play a variety of looks. The secondary has played well, too, although it’s appeared shakier on film without Bashaud Breeland and Kendall Fuller.

Football Outsiders has New Orleans nine spots higher in DVOA, and that feels right. I think Washington drops this one despite their need to create distance from divisional foes.

Prediction: New Orleans 31-20

5. CAN THE NFL’S BEST DEFENSE SLOW THE CHIEFS OFFENSE?

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in what should be the game of the week. The Denver Broncos showed that getting the Chiefs off their script with four pass rushers can at least make Patrick Mahomes work. The Jaguars can do the same thing and have an even better secondary than Denver.

The Chiefs will stretch the Jaguars vertically and horizontally in an effort to find weaknesses. They haven’t had to rely on Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt on a weekly basis, which speaks to their insane talent. But those two will be key this game based on the weaker spots of the Jaguars.

The Tyreek Hill-Jalen Ramsey matchup will be of note due to their trash talk, but in reality, they’ll likely see little of each other even if Ramsey travels to cover him. Ramsey is great at press but struggles to recover when he loses at the line, so they’ll have to give Ramsey help over the top.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville is who we thought they were. Their defense is elite, and the offense is mediocre overall. The offensive line has been great when A.J. Cann has played and they’ll find success against the Chiefs’ soft linebacker and safety corps.

PREDICTION: JAGUARS 20-17

4. DOES BAKER HAVE ENOUGH MAGIC TO BEAT THE RAVENS?

Some have argued that the Cleveland Browns could be 4-0, but there’s a reason they’re 1-2-1. It’s a young team that doesn’t know how to win yet, and the head coach continually puts them into situations to blow leads and lose games they shouldn’t.

There’s also no question that the Browns are a talented, improved team that can win most weeks. The insertion of Baker Mayfield has boosted the offense as they’ve spread the field with more receivers, and now it’s time for his receivers to step up and stop dropping the ball.

Their matchup with Baltimore is an important one. It’s a home game against a surprisingly effective Ravens team, featuring a reenergized Joe Flacco-led passing game. Another loss and the season is all but over as far as the playoff-push, and the Hue Jackson days should be nearly over.

But if Baker can continue to spark the team and overcome the culture of losing? A 2-2-1 record would give them a fighting chance at a Wild Card bid despite a tough regular season schedule.

It’s tough for me to go against the more veteran team with the proven coaching staff, though I’d argue the Browns have as much talent as Baltimore.

Prediction: Ravens 24-21

3. BOTH JASON GARRETT AND BILL O’BRIEN NEED TO WIN

The 1-3 Houston Texans and 2-2 Dallas Cowboys have no love lost between their fan bases despite playing just a few hours apart, and both sides will be facing a critical juncture in their seasons this Sunday.

Dallas, forever stuck in mediocrity, hasn’t been able to manufacture a healthy passing ecosystem as they lack competent weapons for Dak Prescott. Not to mention that he’s had his own issues within Jason Garrett’s outdated offense and they’re relying on Ezekiel Elliott as if running the ball was in style like the early 2000s again.

Their defense is solid, though, boasting young stars all over the field. They’re going to be tested by Houston’s explosive passing game.

Deshaun Watson continues to thrive in the second half of games as he goes all-out behind a travesty of an offensive line. He’s on pace to be sacked 68 times despite the team having a decent running game to take pressure off him, but the defense has hemorrhaged points, forcing them to abandon the run early.

Dallas is more balanced but this isn’t an ideal matchup for them. They don’t have the outside playmakers to exploit a weak Texans’ secondary properly, and Texans will key in on the run game.

Prediction: Houston 30-21

2. CAN MIAMI BE TRUSTED?

The Miami Dolphins are a flawed and now battered team despite sitting at 3-1. Their start isn’t surprising if you’ve been reading my work every week.

Remember: they’ve had a soft schedule, and are good enough to pull out tight games due to their explosiveness. But their blowout loss against New England also exposed their lack of consistent game-breaking talent on both sides of the ball.

The running game hasn’t worked to this point in the season and is likely to get worse as Daniel Kilgore joined Josh Sitton on injured reserve. The defense is young and talented but also faces inconsistency across the board. Charles Harris hasn’t provided an impact yet, Kiko Alonso teeters between unplayable and solid, Xavien Howard is a playmaker but can be exposed more often than the numbers suggest, and now Bobby McCain is injured.

It’s also discouraging their point differential is eight points worse than the 1-3 Jets.

That all said, when things go well for Miami, they look like a playoff team. Cincinnati is more talented than they are thanks to their young stars on both sides of the ball. If Miami can win, they’ll earn respect and trust that they’ll be able to hold their own against non-bottom feeders.

The Bengals have been putting up points with relative ease this season thanks to their deep group of playmakers and former Dolphins offensive coordinator Bill Lazor taking the offense more vertical than last year. I just think they have a little too much star and firepower than Miami to lose at home.

Prediction: Cincinnati 24-17

1. WHICH NFC CONTENDER STARTS TO PLAY LIKE ONE IN PHILADELPHIA?

The NFC game of the week should be Minnesota at Philadelphia. The 4:25 p.m. E.T. kickoff will mean most of the country will be paying attention as the rest of the afternoon games have minor implications comparatively. But this one is massive as both have gone from NFC powerhouses to struggling quickly.

Minnesota is dealing with a subpar offensive line, a running game that’s disappeared, and a defense that cannot deal with play-action passes. It’s a completely different looking team compared to last year, and they’re in real trouble if they slip to 1-3-1. Unfortunately for them, this is a bad matchup.

The Eagles will rely heavily on their play-action game because Carson Wentz thrives off it. The Vikings have the personnel to be great, but they’ve yet to use George Iloka as expected, and there’s a general disjointedness that didn’t exist last season.

Philadelphia doesn’t have quite the same urgency yet, but their own malaise on defense has been surprising. Last year’s defensive front seven covered for Jalen Mills’ bad play and Ronald Darby’s occasional lapse, but this year’s group hasn’t had the luxury of Patrick Robinson balling out in the slot (though Sidney Jones has been impressive) and a full-year of safety Rodney McLeod.

The best solution for the Eagles is to move Mills to safety, Jones to outside corner, and play Avonte Maddox inside. Rasual Douglas is too similar to Mills as a hit-or-miss player, while Jones has the potential to be a great outsider playmaker.

The Eagles’ offense needs to open up and be more aggressive downfield as they continue to get their playmakers healthy. They’ll get there in time. The first few weeks have skewed their stats to make us forget they also run an elite scheme that mitigates the quarterback’s role whenever possible.

I have more faith that the Eagles will rattle Kirk Cousins when its crunch time than I do that Minnesota will fix all of their chemistry issues on both sides of the ball. If there was ever a time they needed to make a statement win, this is it. But I’m going with the defending champions.

Prediction: Eagles 34-31