Saturday, October 6, 2018

MY NFL WEEK 5 PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS


FALCONS (1-3) AT STEELERS (1-2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
TV: Fox 
Falcons’ keys to victory: If the Falcons want to get out of their 1-3 holes, they must get WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley involved against a struggling Pittsburgh defense that has given up 449, 455 and 451 yards in its last three games. Atlanta has plenty of weapons, but the game could come down to sustaining drives with RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman and keeping the Steelers offense off the field. The Atlanta defense has to find a way to slow down the Steelers passing offense and not let this game turn into a shootout.
Steelers’ keys to victory: Pittsburgh should have no problem putting points on the board, but will it be able to slow down the Falcons? This defense is littered with top draft picks, but guys like LBs T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree, DT Cam Heyward and CB Artie Burns aren’t playing like it. The best weapon for a struggling defense is a consistent run game, but Pittsburgh seems to have given up on RB James Conner as a featured back in this offense.
Matchup to watch: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Two of the best quarterbacks in the league will square off, and the one who can throw his team on his back is going to win. Both have elite weapons and will be going against a secondary that has raised more questions than answers thus far this season.
Who wins? Both of these teams are reeling, but Pittsburgh seems to be coming unglued. I think Coach Mike Tomlin is starting to slowly lose control of this team. Defensibly, the Steelers seem like they can’t stop anyone. I’m a huge Steelers fan and I cover the Steelers as a reporter for 33 years. However, I think the Falcons will find a way to outscore the Steelers. Falcons, 35-28
TITANS (3-1) AT BILLS (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, New Era Field, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS 
Titans’ keys to victory: QB Marcus Mariota must have time to pick apart a suspect Bills defense through the air. Buffalo’s only win this season came when its defensive line got into the backfield against the Minnesota Vikings and hurried quarterback Kirk Cousins constantly. Outside of that performance in Week 3, the defense has been shaky. OTs Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan will be big factors against DEs Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy. Defensively, the Titans have to put pressure on QB Josh Allen. The rookie’s offensive line allowed him to get sacked seven times in Week 4 against the Green Bay Packers. When hurried, Allen made the big mistakes, too. He’s fresh off a three-turnover game (two interceptions, one fumble).
Bills’ keys to victory: The offensive line has to play better in front of QB Josh Allen, but the wide receivers have been an issue, too — they haven’t found a way to get separation through the first quarter of the season. Kelvin Benjamin hasn’t looked like a No. 1 wideout, and Zay Jones has only been involved in the offensive game plan only when the Bills have trailed late. RB LeSean McCoy has yet to rush for more than 39 yards in a game this season.
Matchup to watch: Titans LT Taylor Lewan vs. Bills DE Jerry Hughes. In Week 3, Hughes had the best game of his career. In Week 4 against the Packers, David Bakhtiari shut him down. How will Lewan fare?
Who wins? The Bills returned to reality against the Packers and will stay there against the Titans. Titans, 24-10
BRONCOS (2-2) AT JETS (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: CBS 
Jets’ keys to victory: “Play a clean game that’s competently coached” seems a little too on the nose, so let’s stick with protecting QB Sam Darnold. It seems as if the rookie is always on the run thanks to an offensive line made of Swiss cheese. While Darnold is mobile and can make plays with his feet, he surely would benefit from more time in the pocket. That will be hard to come by against Denver, though, especially with Von Miller rushing the inexperienced quarterback. New York really needs its line to step up in Week 5 if the team hopes to end its losing streak.
Broncos’ keys to victory: Denver’s key is pretty much the opposite of New York’s. If the Broncos can bring the heat, which should be easy against the Jets’ line, then they’re in business. Pressuring Darnold has worked wonders for the Jets’ previous opponents — the rookie can only run for his life so many times in a game before he starts to get flustered. Another way to make life tough on Darnold is to stifle New York’s running game.
Matchup to watch: Jets CB Trumaine Johnson vs. Broncos WR Demaryius Thomas. Johnson hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations thus far. He has a chance to turn the tide on his first year in New York with a shutdown performance against Thomas. Both are physical, so this should be a fun matchup.
Who wins? The Jets will squeak by, but not without Darnold getting knocked down a few times. New York’s secondary will make life tough for Broncos QB Case Keenum. Jets, 21-17
JAGUARS (3-1) AT CHIEFS (4-0)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: CBS 
Jaguars’ keys to victory: QB Blake Bortles, coming off a big day against the New York Jets (29for-38 for 388 yards), needs to help the Jacksonville defense. In Bortles’ last 13 road games (including playoffs), he has completed more than 20 passes only twice, and both times the Jaguars still lost. The bread and butter of this Jaguars team is running the ball and playing good defense, but activating those two strengths still might not be enough to pull out a win at Arrowhead. Bortles will have to fight through the crowd noise and help put together long and successful scoring drives to keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
Chiefs’ keys to victory: Stop the run. Jaguars RBs Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon are a big threat in this game — if they get rolling, it helps keep Kansas City’s high-scoring offense off the field. The Chiefs defense needs to prove it can stop them. General manager Brett Veach spent money and draft capital during the 2018 offseason to improve the run defense for exactly this reason. If the Chiefs can stop Fournette and Yeldon, it will force Bortles to beat them on third down.
Matchup to watch: Jaguars CB Jalen Ramsey vs. Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. The most elusive receiver in the NFL takes on the best cover corner in the NFL. Both players are famed for their speed and technical skills at their respective positions. This matchup feels like one that could shift the outcome of the game.
Who wins? This is chance for the Jaguars to make a real statement with a win over the Chiefs. Beating the Patriots and the Chiefs would tell the AFC that the Jaguars are for real and hungry. However, Kansas City finds a way to grind out a tough win in the comforts of Arrowhead. Chiefs, 28-20
PACKERS (2-1-1) AT LIONS (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit
TV: Fox 
Packers’ keys to victory: Winning the battles on both the offensive and defensive lines is critical. QB Aaron Rodgers needs time to survey the defense and not have to worry about his gimpy left knee when passing. Detroit’s pass rush comes from all angles. Getting Rodgers in rhythm and establishing some offensive balance will soften the defense and allow shots down the field. The Packers’ defensive front must snuff out the improved Lions run game and disrupt the timing in the passing game.
Lions’ keys to victory: Detroit must improve in the red zone, where the Lions rank dead last in converting possessions into touchdowns. QB Matthew Stafford has struggled to throw strikes in the short-field situations. Detroit needs more touchdowns and fewer PK Matt Prater 35-yard field goals. Impressive rookie RB Kerryon Johnson needs more touches, and the Lions offense must take more advantage of speedy WR Golden Tate in the middle of the field. The Lions’ run defense remains vulnerable to big plays. LB Jarrad Davis and the defensive linemen need to stay responsible to their gap assignments and make sure they don’t leave the back door open for cutbacks.
Matchup to watch: Packers WR Davante Adams vs. Lions CB Darius Slay. Adams is one of the most prolific wideouts and a big play threat, but Big Play Slay has earned his All-Pro status as a shutdown cover man.
Who wins? The visiting Packers have more ways to win and more margin for error than the sputtering Lions. Packers, 30-20
RAVENS (3-1) AT BROWNS (1-2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
TV: CBS 
Ravens’ keys to victory: Baltimore has newfound speed at the offensive skill positions with WRs Michael Crabtree, John Brown and Willie Snead, who can take advantage of the gambling nature of the Cleveland defense. The line will need to protect QB Joe Flacco from the pass rush and create some running room for RB Alex Collins to provide balance. Mixing in first-round rookie weapon Lamar Jackson can provide more firepower. The run defense needs to be ready for a diverse Browns backfield that can grind out tough yards but also break free for long runs.
Browns’ keys to victory: The offensive formula of QB Baker Mayfield as the master distributor of a balanced and skilled attack is working well. Mayfield makes great decisions with the ball for a rookie, throwing crisp and accurate passes all over the field. He’ll need to identify favorable matchups against an aggressive and deep Ravens defense. RBs Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb can offer big-play punch and red-zone proficiency. The blocking on the return units is unimpressive, and the coverage assignment responsibilities continue to be a work in progress.
Matchup to watch: Ravens LB Terrell Suggs vs. Browns LT Desmond Harrison. The savvy Suggs remains one of the most productive pass rushers in the league and gets to match up with Cleveland's undrafted rookie starter, who has had positive moments but needs to be more consistent.
Who wins? The Browns are still figuring out how to win. Baltimore knows already. Ravens, 31-23
GIANTS (1-3) AT PANTHERS (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: Fox
Giants’ keys to victory: It has been a long time since QB Eli Manning won his Super Bowls, and his game has fallen off over the years. Manning can’t lead an offense the way he used to, but if he can avoid throwing interceptions, New York can at least keep it competitive. Coach Pat Shurmur can help him out by hiding RT Ereck Flowers, the weak link in the offensive line. On defense, the Giants will have to do a better job tackling Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey than they did Saints RB Alvin Kamara last week.
Panthers’ keys to victory: The Panthers should have fresh legs coming off their early bye week. Look for them to re-establish their dominance as a run-first team. Going into Week 4, Carolina led the NFL in rushing yards per game and total rushing yards before contact. C Ryan Kalil deserves great credit for keeping the offensive line intact despite several injuries to starters. LT Chris Clark is playing well, but RT Taylor Moto appears to be a revelation. If the offensive line can open lanes for RB Christian McCaffrey and keep QB Cam Newton clean in the pocket, the Panthers should score.
Matchup to watch: Panthers LB Luke Kuechly vs. Giants RB Saquon Barkley. Kuechly might be the best linebacker in football, but he has a difficult matchup against this year’s No. 2 overall draft pick. Newly signed SS Eric Reid has to be prepared to help contain Barkley.
Who wins? The Giants need this win more than the Panthers. So far thru 4 weeks the NFC East looks up for grabs. A win by the Giants would put in the thick of things. However, in a battle of two teams that like to run the ball, the Panthers have a little more oomph. Panthers, 27-21
DOLPHINS (3-1) AT BENGALS (3-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati
TV: CBS 
Dolphins’ keys to victory: QB Ryan Tannehill’s offense loves to dink and dunk with various weapons, which is the perfect recipe to beating a Bengals defense that struggles to defend intermediate routes. Through three games, five targets had eight or more catches, a trend the Dolphins should be able to lean on, especially if their receivers can create big plays after the catch. They need to erase the memory of their Week 4 debacle against the New England Patriots, who held them to only 116 yards passing and 172 total.
Bengals’ keys to victory: Respecting the run is critical. On paper, the Cincinnati pass rush has a chance of disrupting QB Ryan Tannehill's timing, mainly thanks to DT Geno Atkins. But the Bengals got torched by Carolina because Cam Newton was a threat to take off and go. Tannehill is underrated in this regard, so the return of LB Vontaze Burfict and continued strong play from LB Preston Brown in defending the run could decide the game outright.
Matchup to watch: Bengals WR Tyler Boyd vs. Dolphins LB Jerome Baker. Cincinnati will look to move its X-factor around and exploit a rookie linebacker while the rest of the Miami defense focuses on WRA.J. Green and the speed of WR John Ross. Boyd has had at least 100 yards in receptions each of the last two games and was targeted 15 times last week.
Who wins? Who would have predicted that after 4 weeks the Dolphins and Bengals would be leading their divisions. Miami got exposed on the road at New England in Week 4, and the Bengals have the right blend of pass rush and big play ability offensively to pull away in a game likely lacking in defense. Bengals, 35-28
RAIDERS (1-3) AT CHARGERS (2-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Stub-Hub Center, Carson, California
TV: CBS 
Raiders’ keys to victory: The Raiders need to eliminate the major mistakes they make a couple of times a game. They routinely shoot themselves in the foot. Against the Cleveland Browns in Week 4, QB Derek Carr threw another one of his boneheaded interceptions, but his receivers did him zero favors. One had a pass turn into an interception when it went off his pads; the other dropped a wide-open touchdown pass. On defense, they have to force turnovers. The Raiders made the Browns and a rookie quarterback look like juggernauts, but they've struggled to stop anyone all year.
Chargers’ keys to victory: The offense has been humming pretty much all year. If the Chargers take care of the ball, they shouldn’t have any issues scoring. They are getting contributions from everywhere, and QB Philip Rivers is doing a good job of spreading the ball out and not trying to do too much. RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler both should be heavy targets in the passing game. On defense, the Chargers have to find a way to get after the quarterback. They haven't stopped anyone this year, and the lack of pass rush is hurting them. The secondary is able to be more aggressive when the pass rush gets home.
Matchup to watch: Raiders OT Kolton Miller vs. Chargers DE Melvin Ingram. With Joey Bosa out, Ingram becomes the key to the Chargers’ pass rush. He has averaged 10 sacks a year over the last three seasons.
Who wins? This is a must win for both teams if they’re going to stay in the hunt for the AFC West Title. The Raiders need this win more than the Chargers because there 3 games behind the Chiefs. However, the Chargers will get off to a rare fast start and hold off Oakland’s strong comeback. Chargers, 33-27
CARDINALS (0-4) AT 49ERS (1-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Fox
Cardinals’ keys to victory: Arizona has to find ways to get the ball to RB David Johnson, and maybe Week 4 was a start (22 carries, four targets, three receptions, 112 total yards). It’s clear rookie QB Josh Rosen is still getting acclimated going into his second start, and the Cardinals can make life easier on him by getting Johnson the football to take advantage of a porous San Francisco defense. On defense, they have to stop the 49ers’ rushing attack. Nullifying their run game stops a lot of what they do in play action, which is one of the foundations of their offense.
49ers’ keys to victory: The 49ers have to protect QB C.J. Beathard. He did a nice job against the Chargers when he had protection, completing 23 of 37 passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns, but the pass blocking dissolved too often for him to be consistently effective. Their defense has to tackle. An inability to put ball carriers on the turf has been the demise of the 49ers’ defense this season. If they clean that up, they’ll clean up a lot of their woes on that side of the ball.
Matchup to watch: Cardinals RB David Johnson vs. 49ers LB Reuben Foster. Foster is the centerpiece of the 49ers’ front seven. If the 49ers are going to stop the Cardinals’ best offensive player, it’s going to start with him.
Who wins? The 49ers did just enough against the Los Angeles Chargers to instill some confidence that they can slow down the Cardinals. If the 49ers’ defense can get after Rosen and protect Beathard, they should come away with a victory. 49ers, 27-17
VIKINGS (1-2-1) AT EAGLES (2-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
TV: Fox 
Eagles’ keys to victory: Coming off a heartbreaking 26-23 overtime loss at Tennessee, the Eagles must slow down a Vikings offense that’s rolling. QB Carson Wentz has looked more than comfortable in his return from ACL surgery. The return of his top weapon, WR Alshon Jeffery, should enable the Eagles to score on the Vikings and often. The defense is a different story after the secondary’s embarrassing performance against the Titans. The Eagles will have to tackle, communicate in the secondary and get pressure up front.
Vikings’ keys to victory: QB Kirk Cousins and the Vikings find themselves in a bit of a hole after the Thursday Night loss to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4. But the franchise quarterback and the potent offense are not to blame for the Vikings’ slow start. A team that had minimal injuries last season is dealing with key losses on both sides of the ball. Minnesota will need to follow the recipe the Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers employed to beat the defending Super Bowl champions: Attacking the Eagles’ cornerbacks at every turn. The Vikings’ best chance for success is to turn this NFC Championship rematch into a shootout.
Matchup to watch: Vikings WRs Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles CBs Jalen Mills. Thielen has gotten off to a blistering start this season, hauling in 40 passes for 473 yards and one touchdown. Expect the Vikings to test Mills early and often.
Who wins? Who would have thought that the Eagles and the Vikings would be struggling going into week 5. Let its true! The Eagles play better defense at home. Look for a shootout early with the Philly defense clamping down late. Eagles, 35-31
RAMS (4-0) AT SEAHAWKS (2-2)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Century-Link Field, Seattle
TV: Fox 
Rams’ keys to victory: The Rams are on a roll and control not only the NFC West but also the NFC. While the Seahawks have been notoriously difficult to beat at home, this Rams team has the talent to do just that. QB Jared Goff has a firm command of L.A.’s offense, and RB Todd Gurley — on track for a monster season — needs to set the tone. If the Rams can master the run, their defense can help make it a repeat of their 42-7 victory at Seattle last year.
Seahawks’ keys to victory: Seattle has gotten off to a slow start and now has lost S Earl Thomas for the season to a leg injury, but rarely loses in front of its home crowd. WR Doug Baldwin is back from injury, but the Seahawks will need RB Chris Carson (hip) if they are to more consistently turn drives into points. Converting on third downs, which has been a struggle this season, will be critical for the Seahawks against a Rams defense that has been stifling opponents on game days. If Seattle can contain L.A.’s rushing attack and produce one of its own, it has a fighting chance.
Matchup to watch: Rams RB Todd Gurley vs. Seahawks defense.
Gurley has been virtually unstoppable this season and shows no signs of wearing down. Seattle’s banged-up defense must corral him, and not only on rushing plays— has he factored heavily into the Rams’ passing game as well.
Who wins? Coming off a long week following their Thursday night game, the Rams will be well rested and will ultimately prove too much for the Seahawks and the 12th Man at CenturyLink. Rams, 34-21
COWBOYS (2-2) AT TEXANS (1-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: NBC 
Cowboys’ keys to victory: Contrary to the trend in the modern NFL, the Cowboys’ offense is built around execution and not scheme. If Dallas gets behind the chains with penalties or sacks, it eliminates RB Ezekiel Elliott as an option and puts the game into the hands of QB Dak Prescott, who hadn’t passed for more than 170 yards this season before he threw for 255 in Week 4. The offense must eliminate negative plays and stay on schedule. The Cowboys’ pass rush, led by DE DeMarcus Lawrence and his 5.5 sacks, has to keep generating the pressure.
Texans’ keys to victory: Three of QB DeShaun Watson’s four interceptions have come inside enemy territory, costing the Texans nine to 21 points. Against the Colts, while still throwing a pick, Watson was effective on the Colts’ side of the field as Houston converted three of its six red zone trips into touchdowns. Watson has the arm to connect on big plays but is still working on the professional discernment to know when to live for another down. DE J.J. Watt has five sacks in the past two games.
Matchup to watch: Texans DE J.J. Watt vs. Cowboys LT Tyron Smith. Both were first-round picks in 2011. But while Watt has shown that his prime is no longer interrupted, Smith appears to be exiting his prime because of injuries.
Who wins? Both teams have disruptive defenses, but the Texans’ offense features downfield throws while the Cowboys do not. The only time Houston has beaten Dallas in the team’s four meetings was in its inaugural game on Sept. 8, 2002, also a Sunday night. However that’s going to change as the Texans win the battle of the Lone Star State. Texans, 27-13
REDSKINS (2-1) AT SAINTS (3-1)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Mercedes- Benz Superdome, New Orleans
TV: ESPN
Redskins’ keys to victory: Washington must bully the Saints’ defensive backs. Whoever matches up against Saints CB Ken Crawley is in for a treat; even No. 2 receivers, such as the New York Giants’ Sterling Shepard and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Chris Godwin, have caught 25 of 27 targets in Crawley’s coverage so far. But the Saints’ defense has not allowed a 100-yard rusher since RB Samaje Perine put up 117 yards on 23 attempts in Washington’s visit to New Orleans last November. How will RB Adrian Peterson do?
Saints’ keys to victory: The Saints must get RB Mark Ingram up to speed. RB Alvin Kamara has stepped up in Ingram’s absence, but they’re better together. Kamara has touched the ball 55 times the last two weeks, so the more Ingram can take on to keep Kamara fresh, the better. But all eyes will be on QB Drew Brees, who needs just 201 passing yards to break Peyton Manning’s all-time record.
Matchup to watch: Saints RBs. vs. Washington defense. Washington is allowing 90.1 rushing yards per game, and the Saints finally have all five offensive linemen and both Pro Bowl running backs together.
Who wins? The Saints turned a corner against the New York Giants, playing complementary football on offense and defense with some nice special teams work thrown in. They get a huge reinforcement in Ingram and just have to handle their business going into the bye week. There’s too much for New Orleans to buy into with another Brees record on the line. Saints, 30-20


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