AFC EAST MIDSEASON REVISITED

BUFFALO BILLS

The Buffalo Bills finished the first half of the season with a 2-7 record. Here’s a look at how they have fared and what’s ahead:

First-half rewind: Coach Sean McDermott said last month he entered the season with realistic expectations for the season given where his team was "in the process," which was McDermott-speak for his team being in rebuilding mode. Quarterback was a glaring problem spot all offseason, which tempered expectations, yet there was a sense AJ McCarron could keep the position steady until first-round pick Josh Allen was ready. Instead, Peterman outperformed McCarron in the preseason, leading to McCarron being traded and Peterman starting the opener. Peterman flopped, Allen was forced into action before he was ready, and aside from a shocking, upset win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3, the Bills have generally been in a tailspin since. They enter Week 10 with less than a 0.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to ESPN Football Power Index.

Grade: D

Here's how I see the Buffalo Bills season playing out.

DATE	OPPONENT	W-L
Nov. 11	at Jets	L
Nov. 25	vs. Jaguars	L
Dec. 2	at Dolphins	L
Dec. 9	vs. Jets	W
Dec. 16	vs. Lions	W
Dec. 23	at Patriots	L
Dec. 30	vs. Dolphins	W

Final Season Record 5-11

What is your team’s biggest hole to fill? Despite the Bills scoring a franchise-low 87 points through their first eight games, they kept their offense intact through last month's trade deadline -- and even added free-agent wide receiver Terrelle Pryor. Chances are the group will not rebound in the season's second half, leading to an offseason in which all positions on offense -- including backup quarterback -- should be under consideration for upgrade. Wide receiver tops that list, as Kelvin Benjamin and Pryor will become unrestricted free agents. The Bills have in excess of $80 million in projected 2019 salary-cap space, so expect them to spend big on wide receivers, the offensive line and potentially at tight end.

MVP: LB Lorenzo Alexander. At 35, Alexander is the oldest player in the Bills' locker room and enters Week 10 tied for the team lead with 4.5 sacks. The other candidates for MVP, cornerback Tre'Davious White and defensive end Jerry Hughes, both would be deserving, but Alexander is an unquestioned leader who is playing his best football late in his career. His voice has helped prevent division among a team in which one side of the ball, the defense, is being consistently let down by the other side.

Biggest surprise: Buffalo was expected to lean on its running game, but entering Week 10, the Bills are 23rd in rushing yards per game (97.2) and 30th in yards per rush (3.7) this season. The problems cannot be pinned simply on Bills falling behind in games and becoming pass-heavy in second halves; they enter Week 10 ranked 31st in first-half rushing yards per game this season (37.2) and 32nd in first-half yards per rush (3.1). Some blame should fall on a deficient offensive line, but there should also be questions about the Bills’ pair of 30-year old runners, LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory. Among 52 running backs with 50 carries through Week 9, McCoy ranks 51st in yards per carry and Ivory is tied for 43rd.

Hurdle to overcome: Injuries at quarterback. Allen was knocked out of the Bills' Week 6 loss to at Houston because of a right elbow injury he suffered when he was sandwiched between two Texans defenders. That forced Derek Anderson, signed less than two weeks earlier after being out of football, into the lineup. Anderson suffered a concussion after back-to-back New England Patriots sacks late in a Week 8 loss. The Bills were trying to avoid starting the an interception-prone Peterman, but the injuries left them with no other choice in Week 9 against the Chicago Bears. Health at the position, which has been put at risk because of the offensive line, is hampering development of other players and stunting the progress of McDermott's rebuild.

MIAMI DOLPHINS

The Miami Dolphins finished the first half of the season with a 5-4 record. Here’s a look at how they have fared and what’s ahead:

First-half rewind: The Dolphins were hopeful that a healthy year of Ryan Tannehill with Coach Adam Gase would yield results similar to 2016, when they went 10-6 and made the playoffs. It started well, with a 3-0 record behind a ballhawk defense and an efficient Tannehill. A blowout loss at New England, followed by a collapse in Cincinnati, took the wind out of their sails, and then Tannehill was injured in Week 5. Brock Osweiler stepped in, giving a hint of hope after an upset win over Chicago, but he has fallen back to earth in recent weeks. Both sides of the ball have been inconsistent, but the Dolphins' league-leading 15 interceptions are keeping them in the playoff mix. 

Grade: B

Here's How I See The Miami Dolphins Season Playing Out.

DATE	OPPONENT	W-L
Nov. 11	at Green Bay	L
Nov. 25	at Indianapolis	L
Dec. 2	vs. Buffalo	W
Dec. 9	vs. New England	L
Dec. 16	at Minnesota	L
Dec. 23	vs. Jacksonville	W
Dec. 30	at Buffalo	W

Final Season Record 8-8

What has to happen for the Dolphins to make the playoffs? First, they need to get Tannehill back after the bye. Second, they need to plug their suspect run defense, which gave up an average of 200 rushing yards in a three-game stretch before getting back on track against the Jets. They need to continue to find ways to be creative and feed their explosive playmakers, such as Kenyan Drake and Jakeem Grant. And finally, they need to stay healthy. As far as their upcoming schedule, they have to take advantage of their two December games against the Bills and steal a game or two on the road.

MVP: Xavien Howard has been the Dolphins' best player, locking down one side of the field for much of the season. He has three interceptions and is emerging as the Dolphins' closest thing to a star. Howard held his own -- winning the first-half battle, losing the second half -- against DeAndre Hopkins in his marquee matchup of the season. He's a building block for Miami's defense, and his playmaking ability will be on notice for every quarterback he faces in the second half of the season.

Biggest surprise: Drake's smaller-than-expected role in the offense. Frank Gore has been the lead rusher, and Drake's role has been as a receiver. In Sunday's win over the Jets, Gore had 20 carries to Drake's three. The expectation coming into the year was that Drake would get the chance to be the featured back and Gore would supplement him on short yardage and goal-line situations. But Gase loves Gore's ability to keep the offense on track, so Drake, arguably Miami's best playmaker, has yet to get anything close to a full-time role.

Hurdle to overcome: Miami has placed 11 players on injured reserve, nine on the season-ending IR, since the start of the regular season. Most of those players were set to play a huge role in Miami's season, such as receiver Albert Wilson, guard Josh Sitton and defensive end William Hayes. Gase has said repeatedly that his team can't afford any more season-ending injuries. Laremy Tunsil and Ja'Wuan James are banged up headed into Week 10, but they'll need to find a way to overcome those injuries because that can't be an excuse.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The New England Patriots finished the first half of the season with a 7-2 record. Here’s a look at how they have fared, and what’s ahead.

First-half rewind: After a 1-2 start, the Patriots have won six in a row and are well positioned to make their annual charge at what they hope will be a deep run into January. It was almost like watching two different teams between the first three games and the past six. A big part of that was the return of receiver Julian Edelman from a four-game NFL suspension and integration of trade acquisition Josh Gordon into the offensive attack. The defense has been up and down, but is trending in the right direction after its best performance of the season against the Packers. 

Grade: A

What’s the biggest factor for the Patriots to make a deep playoff run? Keeping quarterback Tom Brady out of harm’s way. The Patriots have generally done a good job of that (No. 5 ranking in fewest sacks per pass play), with Brady also protecting himself at times by getting rid of the football. At 41, he remains one of the best in the game and is the one player who, if injured, would alter the team’s outlook in the most dramatic way.

MVP: James White, step right up. The ever-reliable running back is second in the AFC with 61 receptions, and when the Patriots faced a shortage of players at the position in Weeks 7-9, it was impressive to watch him morph from “passing back” to between-the-tackles grinder and still find success. He is one of the most underrated players in the NFL, shining in his first year as a Patriots captain.

Here's how I see the rest of the New England Patriots season playing out.

DATE	OPPONENT	W-L
Nov. 11	at Titans	W
Nov. 25	at Jets	W
Dec. 2	Vikings	W
Dec. 9	at Dolphins	W
Dec. 16	at Steelers	L
Dec. 23	Bills	W
Dec. 30	Jets	W
Final Season Record 13-3

Biggest surprise: Jason McCourty's emergence as the No. 2 cornerback. When the likable, 10-year veteran was playing deep into the fourth preseason game, it sparked media-based questions as to whether he would even make the team. Then he played six snaps in the season opener, which came after the club reduced his salary to reflect his place as the No. 4 option on the depth chart. But when Eric Rowe was benched two series into Week 2, McCourty stepped in and he’s been the starter opposite Gilmore since.

Hurdle to overcome: Getting Rob Gronkowski back to being Rob Gronkowski. The All-Pro tight end has 29 receptions for 448 yards and one touchdown, which is well off his pace from past seasons. He has missed two games and has been listed on the injury report with two different ailments -- back and ankle. The Patriots have a solid arsenal of weapons without him, but when Gronkowski is on his game, he is one of the hardest players to defend and opens things up for others. So which Gronkowski will the Patriots get in the final seven games of the season?

NEW YORK JETS

The New York Jets reached the NFL's midpoint with a 3-6 record. Here’s a look at how they have fared and what’s ahead:

First-half rewind: So predictable. The Jets have been impressive at times, scoring at least 34 points in each of their three wins. Other times it has been ugly, as they failed to crack 17 points in any of their six losses. Such is life with a rookie quarterback. They signed up for this when they decided to start Sam Darnold, who is gaining valuable experience and will benefit in the long run. Darnold has special traits and a high ceiling, but he's still learning the nuances of the position. (He leads the league with 14 interceptions.) When he sputters, the rest of the offense isn't good enough to pick him up -- the sign of an incomplete team not ready to contend. 

Grade: C

Here's how I see the rest of the New York Jets season playing out.

DATE	OPPONENT	W-L
Nov. 11	vs. Bills	W
Nov. 25	vs. Patriots	L
Dec. 2	at Titans	W
Dec. 9	at Bills	W
Dec. 15	vs. Texans	L
Dec. 23	vs. Packers	L
Dec. 30	at Patriots	L

Final Season Record 6-10

What needs the most improvement? Let's start with the roster. The Jets are in Year 2 of a massive rebuild, expecting to make big moves in 2019. The plan was to get Darnold acclimated to the NFL and develop the young players this season and then add to the foundation next offseason. With close to $100 million in projected cap room, the Jets should be able to plug a few holes. The offense, hurt by spotty drafting in recent years, could use an extreme makeover. They need a couple of wide receivers, a breakaway running back and help on the line. The biggest need? No doubt, it's an edge rusher. General manager Mike Maccagnan hasn't been able to solve that riddle.

MVP: Not a lot of strong candidates here, but let's go with safety Jamal Adams, who has emerged as the defensive leader in his second season. He's the primary energy source, flying around like a Tasmanian tackling machine. He's a force as a "box" safety, with seven tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a sack. When opposing coaches are asked about the Jets' defense, the first name they mention is Adams. With the season going south, he will be looked upon to carry the team through the adversity.

Biggest surprise: The pass rush doesn’t stink. Despite the absence of a quality edge rusher, the Jets have produced 21 sacks (18th in the NFL) so far, only seven shy of last season’s total. Outside linebacker Jordan Jenkins leads with 4.5 sacks, a career high. Brandon Copeland, a bargain-basement free agent, has surprised with three sacks. But do not believe for one second that the problem is solved. This is smoke-and-mirrors stuff more than anything.

Hurdle to overcome: They have no identity on offense. Oh, sure, they say they want to be a run-oriented, ball-control team, but there are too many weeks when they fail because of personnel deficiencies or a pass-happy game plan. Either way, it puts too much pressure on Darnold, who is 0-5 when he attempts more than 30 passes. This is a transition year on offense -- new coordinator, new quarterback, and new system -- so growing pains were inevitable. But 33 points in the past three games? That’s unacceptable. If Bowles and offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates don’t get Darnold fixed, they will be out of jobs, with an offensive-minded head coach coming in.