AFC SOUTH MIDSEASON REVISITED

HOUSTON TEXANS

The Houston Texans finished the first half of the season with a 6-3 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

First-half rewind: Houston dug itself into a hole with an 0-3 start, quickly falling into last place in the AFC South. But thanks to an improved offense and a much easier schedule, the Texans have gone from worst to first. Deshaun Watson, who was on a historic pace in his abbreviated rookie season, didn't pick up where he left off. However, after some early struggles, he appears to have gotten this offense into a rhythm. Houston has ripped off six consecutive victories and put itself in a good position for the final seven games of the season. 

Grade: A

Here's how I see the rest of the Houston Texans season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 18	at Redskins	L
Nov. 26	vs. Titans	W
Dec. 2	vs. Browns	W
Dec. 9	vs. Colts	W
Dec. 15	at Jets	W
Dec. 23	at Eagles	L
Dec. 30	vs. Jaguars	W

Final Season Record 11-5

What's the biggest factor in the Texans making a deep playoff run? The Texans have had a defense this good before -- they were ranked No. 1 in the NFL in 2016 -- but now they feel they finally have their franchise quarterback. Watson hasn't been consistent -- in part due to an offensive line that has struggled to keep him upright -- but he has shown improvement as the season has progressed. If the Texans are to stay at the top of the AFC South and make a playoff run, Watson will need to quickly develop chemistry with new receiver Demaryius Thomas, acquired in a trade with Denver to replace Will Fuller, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL in his right knee.

MVP: Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is the difference-maker for the offense. The sixth-year receiver is averaging 99.3 receiving yards per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL. His seven receiving touchdowns are tied for second. Having Thomas starting opposite him should keep defenses from focusing on Hopkins, who will be leaned on in the final seven games.

Biggest surprise: During the offseason, Texans coach Bill O'Brien said he never would bet against star pass-rusher J.J. Watt coming back and playing at a high level. But in the first half of the season, Watt likely exceeded even O'Brien's loftiest expectations. Despite missing the majority of the past two seasons with injuries, Watt has nine sacks in the first nine games, putting himself in position to win a record fourth NFL Defensive Player of the Year award.

Hurdle to overcome: Losing Fuller will be a big blow to the offense, because he really helped stretch the field for Hopkins. Thomas is a proven producer and rookie Keke Coutee has looked promising even though he has missed time with a hamstring injury, but he's primarily a slot receiver. It will be interesting to see how defenses approach the Texans without Fuller's speed in the lineup.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Indianapolis Colts finished the first half of the season with a 3-5 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

First-half rewind: Nobody knew what to expect from the Colts heading into the season. In the midst of a rebuild, they had a new head coach and a quarterback who hadn't played a regular-season game in 19 months. Andrew Luck completely silenced any doubts about his surgically repaired right shoulder when he attempted 121 passes in a four-day span over Weeks 3 and 4. Frank Reich has made most forget about the debacle of the Josh McDaniels coaching situation with an aggressive style that has put an emphasis on quick throws mixed in with the running game while being tough on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. 

Grade: C

Here's how I see the rest of the Indianapolis Colts season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 11	vs. Jaguars	L
Nov. 18	vs. Titans	W
Nov. 25	vs. Dolphins	W
Dec. 2	at Jaguars	L
Dec. 9	at Texans	L
Dec. 16	vs. Cowboys	W
Dec. 23	vs. Giants	W
Dec. 30	at Titans	W

Final Season Record 8-8

What has to happen for the Colts to make the playoffs? The Colts have to learn how to close out games. They could be sitting on top of the AFC South if they were able to do that in the first half of the season. All five of their losses came with them in position to win the game in the fourth quarter, including four in the final two minutes. The schedule shifts in the Colts' favor in the second half of the season, because they face only one team -- Houston (6-3) -- that currently has a winning record, and five of their final eight are at home.

MVP: Luck will have a chance to jump in the league MVP race if he's able to get the Colts out of their 3-5 hole and make a push for the playoffs. He has thrown for more touchdowns (23) than every quarterback in the NFL not named Patrick Mahomes. Luck has not missed the playoffs in any season in which he's played in all 16 games. His 65.8 completion percentage, which is currently a career high, should remain steady or improve with receiver T.Y. Hilton (missed two games) and tight end Jack Doyle (missed five) back in the lineup.

Biggest surprise: There's a two-way tie in this category between the offensive line play and the emergence of rookie linebacker Darius Leonard. Led by center Ryan Kelly, guard Quenton Nelson and left tackle Anthony Castonzo; the Colts have had one of the better offensive lines this season. Luck closed the first half of the season having not been sacked in the final three games. The Colts raised some eyebrows in the second round of the draft when they selected Leonard out of South Carolina State, a Football Championship Subdivision school. All Leonard has done is become the anchor of the rebuilding defense and a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate while leading the NFL in tackles for most of the season.

Hurdle to overcome: The Colts have 60 penalties, 10th most overall and fourth among teams that have played eight games. They aren't good enough to continually overcome their own errors by giving away free yards, especially with a defense that has a bend-but-don't-break philosophy. They're 23rd in the league in pass defense after failing to add a No. 1 cornerback. The Colts won't face a Tom Brady or Carson Wentz in the second half of the season, but that's still an area of concern no matter which quarterback they face.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jacksonville Jaguars finished the first half of the season with a 3-5 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

First-half rewind: Injuries have decimated the offense. Running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) has missed six games, the Jaguars are on their third-string left tackle (who is a guard), and tight ends Austin Seferian-Jenkins(core muscle) and Niles Paul (knee) are on injured reserve. Plus, the remaining four offensive line starters have battled nagging injuries at various points. However, quarterback Blake Bortles has struggled (11 turnovers in eight games), the offensive line hasn't played well even when healthy (Coach Doug Marrone said he had no confidence in its ability to create space in Jacksonville's last game), and there are no consistent outside playmakers. Despite all that, the Jaguars are still alive in a jumbled AFC South, and the season is not lost -- yet. 

Grade: D

Jaguars' revised game-by game prediction

Here's how Jacksonville reporter Michael DiRocco sees the season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 11	at Colts	L
Nov. 18	vs. Steelers	L
Nov. 25	at Bills	W
Dec. 2	vs. Colts	W
Dec. 6	at Titans	L
Dec. 16	vs. Redskins	L
Dec. 23	at Dolphins	W
Dec. 30	at Texans	L
Final Season Record 6-10

What needs the most improvement? Two things, really. The offensive line has to play better or it won't matter when Fournette returns. Marrone's comments last Sunday were harsh, but true: The Jaguars want to be a power-run offense -- they built their identity around that -- but can't because they have no confidence in the guys up front, especially in short-yardage situations. Bortles has to be better, too. He is a streaky player, and when he's in a funk it can be really bad. He needs to consistently avoid turnovers, not miss open guys, hit a few big plays and generally play like an above-average quarterback.

MVP: There's been only one player who has consistently made a difference when it comes to scoring points. Kicker Josh Lambo has made all 12 of his field goal attempts this season, and that includes a 4-for-4 performance against Philadelphia last Sunday (including a 57-yarder), which extended his streak of consecutive field goals made to 23. That is a franchise record. Since signing with the Jaguars in October 2017, Lambo has made 31 of 32 field goal attempts. If the offense's struggles of the past month continue (11.5 points per game), Lambo is the Jaguars' best shot at scoring points in the second half of the season.

Biggest surprise: The defense hasn't created many big plays. Jalen Ramsey picked off Carson Wentz in the end zone and Marcell Dareus forced Wentz to fumble last Sunday, but those were only the sixth and seventh turnovers the Jaguars have forced this season. They finished second in the NFL last season with 33, and 12 of the top 14 players returned from that unit. Big plays usually go hand in hand with pressure on the quarterback, and though the Jaguars aren't on the same pace for sacks as last season, they do rank second in the NFL in pressure percentage on opposing quarterbacks. Too many dropped interceptions and a few unlucky bounces have kept the defense from making the impact plays it did last season.

Hurdle to overcome: Bortles has to stop being a Jekyll-and-Hyde quarterback. No fluctuations between the way he played against New England or the New York Jets and the way he played against Dallas and Houston. Find a middle ground and stick there. If Fournette comes back and the Jaguars can run the ball, they can win with an average Bortles. They nearly made the Super Bowl last season doing just that.

TENNESSEE TITIANS

The Tennessee Titans finished the first half of the season with a 4-4 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

Here's how I see the rest of the Tennessee Titians season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 11	vs. Patriots	L
Nov. 18	at Colts	W
Nov. 26	at Texans	L
Dec. 2	vs. Jets	W
Dec. 6	vs. Jaguars	W
Dec. 16	at Giants	W
Dec. 23	vs. Redskins	L
Dec. 30	at Colts	W

Final Season Record 9-7

First-half rewind: Despite suffering nerve damage in his throwing hand in the season opener, quarterback Marcus Mariota showed glimpses of how well he can play in coordinator Matt LaFleur's offense -- especially when Tennessee broke loose for 28 points against Dallas in Week 9. However, before that game, the offense really struggled to find the end zone. Losing tight end Delanie Walker was a major blow to the passing game, but the Titans are still in contention, thanks to a defense that manages to always keep them in games.

 Grade: B

What has to happen for the Titans to make the playoffs? Thanks to a pass from safety Kevin Byard on a fake punt, fellow safety Dane Cruikshank is tied for the team lead with one receiving touchdown. But Tennessee's receivers have only contributed two 100-yard receiving games. For the Titans to make the playoffs, the offense -- especially the wideouts -- must produce more explosive plays. It's also important to get running back Derrick Henry on track. And the defense must avoid yielding quick-strike touchdowns that demoralize the team's confidence.

MVP: Mariota said he is fully recovered from his Week 1 injury. As he continues to build chemistry with the receivers and gets more comfortable in the offense, the passing game will improve. He has made an effort to take games over with his legs, which has resulted in some key first downs in third-and-long situations. Look for the Titans to amp up running game, which should open things up for Mariota and the passing game.

Biggest surprise: Henry seemed to be an excellent fit in the zone rushing scheme. For whatever reason, he seems timid on the field and isn't lowering the boom on defenders. He is averaging 3.3 yards per carry and has scored two rushing touchdowns.

Hurdle to overcome: The lack of playmakers on offense has been an issue. LaFleur has to scheme up more ways to get the pass-catchers open and in situations that allow them to make plays. Opposing defenses are not afraid to stack the box and condense the field against the Titans, because they don't respect the vertical passing game.