NFC SOUTH MIDSEASON REVISTED

ATLANTA FALCONS

The Atlanta Falcons finished the first half of the season with 4-4 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

Here's how I see the rest of the Atlanta Falcons season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 11	at Browns	W
Nov. 18	vs. Cowboys	W
Nov. 22	at Saints	L
Dec. 2	vs. Ravens	W
Dec. 9	at Packers	L
Dec. 16	vs. Cardinals	W
Dec. 23	at Panthers	L
Dec. 30	at Bucs	W

Final season record 9-7

First-half rewind: In all fairness, the Falcons' first half could be viewed as "incomplete" based on how injuries set them back. Six starters were placed on injured reserve, including Pro Bowlers Devonta Freeman, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Playing without Neal, Jones and Ricardo Allen, not to mention without star defensive tackle Grady Jarrett for a couple games, left a gaping hole in the defense. And not having a healthy Freeman obviously impacted the running game. Still, quarterback Matt Ryan managed to put up great numbers and keep the Falcons afloat. Grade: Average

What has to happen for the Falcons to make the playoffs? The Falcons need to play flawless football, at least on the offensive side, to contend for a wild-card berth. They have the weapons to outscore any team, despite elite receiver Julio Jones scoring just one TD thus far. There seems to be better chemistry between the offensive players and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. But the Falcons need to play as well offensively on the road as they do at home, with five of the final eight games in opposing stadiums. Plus they need the other leading NFC teams to trip up along the way.

MVP: Ryan. No doubt. He's playing at an MVP level and is on pace for more than 5,000 passing yards. In his first 301 pass attempts this season; Ryan threw 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He completed more than 74 percent of his passes in five of the first eight games. And he's continued to show the ability to make plays out of the pocket for those who question his athleticism.

Biggest surprise: Maybe this wasn't so much of a surprise, but rookie Calvin Ridley came out of the gates on fire with six touchdowns in his first four NFL games and a team-leading seven touchdown receptions through eight games. Yes, some of that can be attributed to the added defensive attention drawn by his teammate Jones, but no one can deny just how fluid a route runner Ridley is and how he already looks mature beyond his years. And he's only going to get better the more comfortable he gets with the offense, so watch out. Also, fellow rookie Ito Smith has been a pleasant surprise with his team-leading four rushing touchdowns.

Hurdle to overcome: The depleted defense has shown improvement in recent weeks with the steady play of Jarrett and the emergence of guys such as Damontae Kazee, Foye Oluokun, and Jack Crawford, but the Falcons still surrender 412.8 yards and 28.25 points per game. The good news is the Falcons are expected to get the Pro Bowl middle linebacker Jones back from foot surgery by the Dallas game (Nov. 18), which should provide a significant boost. The defense really needs one-time sack champ Vic Beasley Jr. to be a dominant force again as a pass-rusher. The Falcons are adding some pass-rush help by signing Bruce Irvin to a one-year deal, per Adam Schefter.

CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Carolina Panthers finished the first half of the season with a 6-2 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

Here's how I see the rest of the Carolina Panthers season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 8	at Steelers	L
Nov. 18	at Lions	W
Nov. 25	vs. Seahawks	W
Dec. 2	at Bucs	W
Dec. 9	at Browns	W
Dec. 17	vs. Saints	W
Dec. 23	vs. Falcons	W
Dec. 30	at Saints	L

Final season record 12-4

First-half rewind: Carolina had quality wins against Dallas, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Overcoming a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit against the Eagles will be the turning point if this season continues to go well. Carolina protected its home turf, going 5-0. Quarterback Newton adjusted smoothly to new coordinator Norv Turner's offense and had the best first eight games of his career, with 15 touchdown passes and only four interceptions. A rebuilt offensive line held up better than expected, and left tackle Matt Kalil will be available the final eight games, though that will be a tough call given how well Chris Clark is playing. The defense is starting to play at a top-10 level, maybe top five. Grade: Above average

What's the biggest factor in the Panthers' making a deep playoff run? Getting past the Saints twice and winning on the road. That's what made the win at Philadelphia huge. Five of the final eight games are away from Bank of America Stadium, including the finale in New Orleans. Carolina was 0-3 against the Saints last season, including a first-round playoff loss in New Orleans. If the Panthers prove that they can beat Drew Brees & Co., they can beat any team.

MVP: You've heard it here on multiple occasions: As Newton goes, so go the Panthers. Newton is off to a better start than in the 2015 season, when he won the NFL MVP Award. He has bought into Turner's system, and his completion percentage, which was 58.5 his first seven seasons, is 67.3 -- right in the 65-to-70 percent range Turner wanted. To win big games on the road, Newton will have to come up big, as he did in Philadelphia, where he engineered three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 21-17 victory.

Biggest surprise: The offensive line. This looked like a disaster heading into the season, with injuries to right tackle Daryl Williams, left guard Amini Silatolu and left tackle Matt Kalil. At one point, when right guard Trai Turner was out with a concussion, only center Ryan Kalil was at the position at which he opened camp. Tackle Taylor Moton has come up huge, and the play of the veteran Clark, a late addition, will make it interesting to see how Matt Kalil is used when he returns. He is not expected to be activated this week.

Hurdle to overcome: As mentioned above, the Saints. Carolina had no answer for Brees last season, giving up an average of 32 points in three losses. Brees threw six touchdowns with only one interception in those games. If the Saints win the two games against the Panthers in the final three weeks, the NFC South and home-field advantage for at least one playoff game should be theirs. If not, a lot will be riding on the season finale in New Orleans.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The New Orleans Saints finished the first half of the season with a 7-1 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

Here's how I see the rest of the New Orleans Saints season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 11	at Bengals	W
Nov. 18	vs. Eagles	L
Nov. 22	vs. Falcons	W
Nov. 29	at Cowboys	W
Dec. 9	at Bucs	W
Dec. 17	at Panthers	L
Dec. 23	vs. Steelers	W
Dec. 30	vs. Panthers	W

Final season record 13-3

First-half rewind: Is there a more battle-tested team in the NFL? New Orleans has won seven straight, including a brutal stretch over the past three weeks (at Baltimore, at Minnesota, vs. the previously undefeated Los Angeles Rams). They have proven they can win in a variety of ways, whether Drew Brees, 39, is still out there acting like Superman or whether they have to patiently survive a slugfest. Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas have been two of the NFL's best playmakers, and the offensive line is among the game's best. The pass defense remains a concern, but the Saints have shown gradual improvement in that department -- and they even stepped up with three game-changing takeaways to fuel the wins against the Vikings and Rams. Grade: Near-perfection

What's the biggest factor in the Saints making a deep playoff run? The secondary has to hold up. Although they've improved a bit in recent weeks and made a midseason trade for cornerback Eli Apple, the Saints still rank among the NFL's bottom four pass defenses in several categories -- including big plays allowed. No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore is an asset, but quarterbacks have had too much success throwing away from him and picking on the No. 2 and 3 corners -- especially since veteran Patrick Robinson went on injured reserve in late September.

MVP: Not only is Brees the answer here, but he has a great chance to finally win the first NFL regular-season MVP award of his 18-year career if he can keep this up and hold off Kansas City's wunderkind quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, among others. Brees, who turns 40 in January, has the highest passer rating of his career (120.6) with 292 yards per game, 18 touchdown passes, just one interception and a ridiculous completion percentage of 76.3. Oh, and he became the NFL's all-time leader in passing yards in Week 5. Kamara and Thomas could make compelling cases, too, and both of them were huge contributors in the Week 9 win against the Rams (Kamara had his third three-TD game of the season, while Thomas had a franchise-record 211 yards and an unforgettable cellphone celebration). But Brees had a monster game himself, with four TD passes -- and sometimes Hall of Fame quarterbacks get extra credit.

Biggest surprise: The Saints have turned third-string quarterback Taysom Hill into a major part of their offense. Hill has played 17 offensive snaps per game over the past five games as a read-option QB/RB/TE/WR -- in addition to his duties as a kickoff returner and special-teams coverage specialist. He has completed a 44-yard pass, run for 133 yards and a touchdown, caught two passes for a total of 1 yard and successfully converted two fake punts (one throwing, one running). The physical and athletic 6-foot-2, 221-pounder has been a dream for innovative coach Sean Payton. Brees joked that Hill is "Sean's new toy."

Hurdle to overcome: Again, it's the pass defense. But to add another degree of difficulty, the Saints have to deal with the short-term absence of rookie edge rusher Marcus Davenport until he heals from a toe injury he suffered in Week 8. The Saints do have decent depth on their defensive line, and veteran Alex Okafor is a capable starter at right end. But they could use all the disruption they can get up front -- they didn't have a single sack against the Rams' Jared Goff while he threw for 391 yards. And Davenport was making a bigger impact by the week while playing about 50 percent of the defensive snaps, including two sacks on the night he got hurt.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the first half of the season with a 3-5 record. Here's a look at how they have fared and what's ahead:

Here's how I see the rest of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers season playing out.

DATE	OPP.	W-L
Nov. 11	vs. Redskins	L
Nov. 18	at Giants	W
Nov. 25	vs. 49ers	W
Dec. 2	vs. Panthers	L
Dec. 9	vs. Saints	L
Dec. 16	at Ravens	L
Dec. 23	at Cowboys	W
Dec. 30	vs. Falcons	W

Final season record 7-9

First-half rewind: No one expected the Bucs to start the season 2-1 with upsets against the New Orleans Saints and Philadelphia Eagles, and a narrow loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Nor did anyone expect backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 1,793 yards, 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions, completing 66.3 percent of his passes. Fitz magic’s stellar playmaking early on masked the Bucs' defensive deficiencies until a humiliating Week 4 loss at the Chicago Bears. Defensive coordinator Mike Smith was fired two weeks later. Starting quarterback Jameis Winston, who sat out the first three games because of suspension, struggled in his return, throwing eight interceptions in three starts. It prompted coach Dirk Koetter to go back to Fitzpatrick, creating a whirlwind of speculation about Winston's future -- a future that is tied to that of Koetter and general manager Jason Licht. Grade: Below average

What needs the most improvement? Defense and special teams. The Bucs are last in the NFL with a minus-15 turnover margin; opponents have scored 52 points off those turnovers. The defense has not been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks and cover downfield, and struggled against teams using pre-snap motions. The defense overall has been a huge disappointment considering the Bucs invested heavily in both the draft and free agency. Kicker Chandler Catanzaro is struggling with consistency. He has missed only two field goal attempts this season, but two of the Bucs' losses have been by three points, and he's gone 23-of-27 on extra point attempts (85.2 percent) -- 34th in the league among kickers with five or more starts this season.

MVP: Can a backup quarterback win it? Fitzpatrick is certainly deserving of it, as he became the first NFL quarterback to throw for 400 yards in three consecutive games and has led the Bucs to a top-ranked passing attack. He stepped in for Winston against the Bengals and threw two touchdowns, tying the game at 34 before the Bengals won with a last-second field goal. After a rough start against the Panthers, he rallied the Bucs back from a 35-7 deficit, accounting for all the Bucs' points with four touchdown passes. "He inspires a lot of confidence in everyone," tight end Cameron Brate said.

Biggest surprise: Winston's regression. The 2015 first-round pick closed out 2017 playing some of the best football of his career. Then this preseason, he threw three touchdowns, no interceptions and completed 73 percent of his passes. Koetter said at the time, "I don't think anybody in their right mind would say that wasn't an A performance on his part." Fast-forward to midseason, and Winston is struggling to see the field, his mechanics are off and he is forcing throws he shouldn't be making.

Hurdle to overcome: The NFC South. The playoffs aren't impossible, but the 7-1 Saints and 6-2 Panthers are running away with the division. The Bucs would need the type of finish they had in 2016 -- when they went 6-2 down the stretch -- and some outside help not only to make the playoffs but to finish with a winning season. The one place they can gain some ground is during the month of December, when they play host to the Panthers, Saints and Falcons to close out the season.