AFC WILD CARD PLAYOFF PREVIEW

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (11-5)

IN A NUTSHELL

It's an AFC South battle, which means zzzzzzzzzz...

Wake up! (Applies smelling salts.) Look, we know you read "AFC South battle" and think either, "Oh look, the Belk Bowl," or, "Chum chewing each other up so the Patriots can feast on the entrails."

But this year could be different. The Colts are playing great football now, and the Texans...have...four really great players!

Yeah, this feels a little like a "happy to be here" undercard. But hey, the  feed will probably cook up something good about this game. That's something to look forward to, right? STAY AWAKE FOR HEAVEN'S SAKE.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

The Colts started out 1-5. Then Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton and Dontrelle Inman finally all got healthy at the same time, the top rookies all took a simultaneous step forward, Frank Reich settled in as head coach, and Andrew Luck shook the rust off. The Colts went 9-1 down the stretch, capping the season with a 33-17 win over the Titans (though that was shakier than the final score suggests).

The Texans feasted on middleweight competition all year, clinching the AFC South on Sunday by beating the Jaguars 20-3 in the most Texans way possible: DeAndre Hopkins caught 12 passes for 147 yards, J.J. Watt had 1.5 sacks, Deshaun Watson threw for 234 yards and added 66 rushing yards and a touchdown—and everyone else stood around wondering if they were supposed to block or catch a pass or something. 

KEY FOR THE TEXANS

The Texans' playoff hopes ride on someone besides Hopkins, Watkins, Watson, Jadeveon Clowney and one or two other semi-regular suspects (like Whitney Mercilus) stepping up.

The problem is particularly acute on offense, where Demaryius Thomas' injury leaves the Texans without a second receiving threat: Hopkins has 115 receptions this season; no other Texans player has more than 32.

Lamar Miller returned from injury to play well against the Jaguars on Sunday, and the Texans' best bet to diversify their offense and take pressure off Watson and Hopkins is to get both Miller and Alfred Blue more involved in the running and passing game. But the pair is averaging just 7.0 yards per catch this season, and even Adrian Peterson in his prime would struggle to rush consistently behind the pitiful Texans offensive line.

KEY FOR THE COLTS

The Colts went five weeks without allowing a sack in the middle of the season. They gave up four in their early-season loss to the Texans but just two in their Week 14 win. Stopping Watt, Clowney and Mercilus is the best way to beat the Texans. With Anthony Castonzo, Quenton Nelson and others having fine years on the Colts line and Reich designing plays that make life hard for opposing pass-rushers, the Colts are well-equipped to do it.

PRIOR MEETINGS

The Texans held off a Colts comeback from a 28-10 deficit to win a wild 37-34 overtime game in Week 4. Perennial Texans killer T.Y. Hilton caught nine passes for 199 yards as the Colts won the Week 14 rematch 24-21.

Come to think of it, stopping Hilton is a "key for the Texans," too; it's just not clear that they'll ever be able to do it.

BOTTOM LINE

The Colts have much more talent once you get past the Texans Big Four, are better-coached, are better-balanced and are playing better football right now. But none of that ever seems to matter during AFC South matchups.