With the 2018-19 NFL playoffs finally upon us, I used my computer to
predict the winners of Wild Card weekend, starting with Saturday’s games.
The NFL’s Wild Card weekend kicks off today with a pair of
intriguing Saturday matchups.
In the AFC, the Andrew Luck-led Indianapolis Colts travel to
Houston where they will take on a Texans team that has been red-hot after a 0-3
start to the season. For the night game, we shift over to the NFC where Russell
Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks head to Jerry’s World and play America’s Team,
the Dallas Cowboys.
I have been surprisingly accurate in predicting the winners
and losers of each week during the regular season; but, the playoffs are a
completely different beast. Anything can happen in January, as evidenced by the
last time two of these teams – the Cowboys and Seahawks – met in the playoffs
all the way back in 2006.
In the AFC, we have an intriguing match-up between the
Indianapolis Colts who, with the return of Andrew Luck under center, have
returned to the playoffs. Still an incredibly young team, I don’t think anyone
expected the Colts to be in the playoffs this season, but here they are about
to face a very talented Houston Texans team, led by the surging Deshaun Watson
and a dominant defense.
The NFC game will presumably be an even bigger defensive
struggle. Both the Cowboys and Seahawks feature top-10 defenses and both teams
have struggled with inconsistency on offense. Both teams are also carried by a
physical run game, so which team’s defense will break first?
Check out who I think will emerge from Saturday’s NFL Wild
Card games with a “W”.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
(10-6) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (11-5)
Prior to the season, did anyone have the AFC South sending
two teams to the playoffs? What about after week three when the Colts
were 1-2 and the Texans were 0-3? Thankfully, both of these teams play in a
division with the Jacksonville Jaguars who, despite a stellar defense, have an
offense led by Blake Bortles and, therefore, have no offense.
In any case, the Texans rattled off nine straight following
their atrocious start to the season. Deshaun Watson has really come into his
own as quarterback of this team. The second-year quarterback threw for over
4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns this season.
Of course, it helps when you have DeAndre Hopkins at wide
receiver. The 26-year-old was by far the best receiver for the Texans with 115
receptions, 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns on the season. If the Colts are to
win this game, they will have to find a way to stop him.
If they can’t contain the Texans’ offense, Andrew Luck will
just have to outperform it. Luck has been tremendous this season, his first
since missing an entire year due to injury. And it’s amazing what he’s been
able to bring out of this young Colts team who many thought were a few years
away from actually competing.
The Colts barely snuck in as the final Wild Card team,
defeating a Tennessee Titans team that was missing its starting quarterback.
Still, it’s hard to say they lucked into the playoffs when they boast a top
five offense (27.7 points per game). This offense will face a stiff test
against a No. 4-ranked Texans defense that has allowed just 19.8 points per
game all season.
Will the Colts magical season end on Saturday or will Andrew
Luck find a way to continue this Cinderella run? If history tells us anything,
it’s that this will be a close game. As I points out, nine of the last 10
meetings between these two teams have been decided by just one score.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
27, HOUSTON TEXANS 23
Things didn’t start off well for the Colts offense. On the
Colts very first possession of the game, Andrew Luck was intercepted by Kareem
Jackson. That helped set up a 53-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn to give
the Texans an early 3-0. Those would be the only points scored in an otherwise
quiet first quarter.
The excitement picked up in the second quarter as Luck led
the Colts a touchdown on a two-yard pass to Mo Alie-Cox. After trading punts,
the Texans drove down to the Colts’ 18-yard-line but were held to another field
goal.
Here’s where things got ugly for the Texans. A five-yard
rush by Nyheim Hines gave the Colts a 14-6 lead. A quick three-and-out by the
Texans gave the Colts the ball back with 57 seconds left in the half. Luck made
the most of the opportunity, connected on three straight passes. With 27
seconds and the ball on Houston’s 23-yard line, Luck completed three more
passes, one of which was a five-yard touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton with just
10-seconds remaining. The touchdown gave the Colts a commanding 21-6 lead at
halftime.
Houston responded on the opening drive of the second half
but was again held to a field goal at the Colts’ nine-yard-line. The Colts
answered with a field goal of their own on their very next possession and
that’s all the teams would muster in the third quarter.
Down 24-9, Houston finally scored their first touchdown of
the game in the fourth quarter when Deshaun Watson connected with Keke Coutee
for a 24-yard touchdown. Indianapolis managed another field goal to slightly
extend their lead.
With time running out, Houston managed just one more
touchdown in the game to make the score a bit closer. And with the score 27-23,
Colts, the trend of one-score games between these two teams continues.
KEY PERFORMERS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS:
ANDREW LUCK: 29-36,
302 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int
MARLON MACK: 12
carries, 52 yards
NYHEIM HINES: 11
carries, 43 yards, 2 TDs
T.Y. HILTON: 6
receptions, 61 yards, 1 TD
HOUSTON TEXANS:
DESHAUN WATSON:
26-38, 283 yards, 1 TD
LAMAR MILLER: 15
carries, 64 yards
DEANDRE HOPKINS: 10
receptions, 101 yards
KEKE COUTEE: 8
receptions, 101 yards, 1 TD
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
(10-6) AT DALLAS COWBOYS (10-6)
I have to admit, even as a Cowboys fan, I never expected
this team to make the playoffs. The offense has been wildly inconsistent;
though admittedly much better with the arrival of wide receiver Amari Cooper.
But make no mistake, this is a team that has been carried by its defense, which
ranked sixth in the league in points allowed (20.2). If they are to win this
game, it will have to be on the defense’s shoulders.
The last time these two teams met was the 2006 Wild
Card round. That game ended in bitter disappointment for the Cowboys who looked
to tie the game late in the fourth quarter, only to see their dreams crushed on
a botched extra point snap. It was a play that would follow Tony Romo the rest
of his career.
The Cowboys will look to exact revenge on the Seahawks but
it won’t come easy. The Seahawks defense is also in the top half of the league,
ranked 11th in points allowed (21.7). And for as much credit as Ezekiel Elliott
and the Cowboys get for their running game, the Seahawks are actually the No. 1
rushing team in the league with over 2,500 yards on the season and a 4.8
average yards-per-carry. The Cowboys actually rank 10th in the league with
1,963 yards total and a 4.5 average yards-per-carry.
Surprisingly, the Cowboys defense actually ranks a little
better in stopping the run (No. 5) with just 94.6 rushing yards allowed per
game. The Seahawks at No. 13 with 113.2.
This is a game that will be won at the trenches with both
teams looking to establish the run early in hopes of opening up the passing
game. Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in passing yards per game
but have also shown flashes of brilliance at times.
Dak is coming off a game in which he seemed to have
established a rhythm with Cole Beasley, and Amari Cooper has proven to be a
game-changer. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, is one of the most clutch quarterbacks
in the league and has developed a connection with Doug Baldwin.
AN INTERESTING STAT
THAT I ACTUALLY POINT OUT IN-GAME: the Seahawks have suffered just 11
turnovers in 2018 – second-best all-time. Dallas, meanwhile, has only forced 12
turnovers at home all year.
So who do I think will win?
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
31, DALLAS COWBOYS 28
The Seahawks got things going early and jumped out to a 7-0
lead on their first possession of the game.
Setting the tone for a physical game early-on, the Seahawks
leaned heavily on their No. 1-ranked rushing attack. Chris Carson, who at one point
carried the ball eight straight times, helped set up a four-yard touchdown pass
from Russell Wilson to Ed Dickson.
The Cowboys attempted to respond on their next possession
with a balanced dose of running and passing. They managed to get to Seattle’s
37-yard-line, but a 53-yard Brett Maher field goal was blocked.
The Seahawks expanded on their lead early in the second
quarter with another touchdown pass from Russell Wilson to Ed Dickson.
Down 14-0 with just 58 seconds left in the half, the Cowboys
were in desperate need of some points. Dak Prescott delivered. Aided by a short
field, Prescott connected on passes of 14 (M. Gallup), 6 (E. Elliott) and 22
(A. Cooper) yards. Facing third and eight on Seattle’s 13-yard line, Prescott
delivered a touchdown strike to Michael Gallup to pull the Cowboys within seven
at halftime.
The Cowboys received the ball to start the second half and
opened the third quarter with a 47-yard field goal. After the defense forced a
quick Seattle punt, the Cowboys once again drove down the field but were forced
to settle for a field goal again.
Up by just one, Seattle’s offense found the end zone late in
the third quarter. Russell Wilson connected with Doug Baldwin for a 34-yard
touchdown to extend Seattle’s lead 21-13.
The Cowboys responded on their first drive of the fourth
quarter with a one-yard touchdown run by Ezekiel Elliot. A successful two-point
conversion tied the game at 21.
However, it didn’t last long as Seattle drove down the field
on their next possession and Russell Wilson threw his fourth touchdown pass of
the game. The Cowboys answered on their very next drive with an 80-yard screen
pass to Elliott for a touchdown.
With the game all knotted up at 28, Seattle received the
ball with 2:18 remaining in the game. Russell Wilson once again put the team on
his shoulders and drove the Seahawks to within field goal range; Sebastian
Janikowski drilled a 41-yard field goal to take a 31-28 lead.
The Cowboys had a shot at the end, receiving the ball with
46 seconds remaining in the game. They managed to make it to midfield but ran
out of time.
The victory propels Seattle to the NFC Divisional round
where they will likely face the New Orleans Saints. For the Cowboys, it’s
another early playoff exit and yet another heartbreaker. I don’t mind losing in
the playoffs, but this is another tough one to swallow, especially after 2016’s
loss to the Packers.
KEY PERFORMERS
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS:
RUSSELL WILSON:
21-29, 199 yards, 4 TDs
CHRIS CARSON: 28
carries, 133 yards (4.6)
ED DICKSON: 5 receptions,
38 yards, 2 TDs
DOUG BALDWIN: 5
receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD
DALLAS COWBOYS:
DAK PRESCOTT:
23-35, 349 yards, 2 TDs
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT:
19 carries, 74 yards (3.8), 1 TD
AMARI COOPER: 6
receptions, 92 yards
MICHAEL GALLUP: 6
receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD
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