PREDICTIONS, KEY
MATCHUPS, MORE
SATURDAY'S GAMES
(6) COLTS AT
(3) TEXANS
TIME: 4:35 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN/ABC/ESPN App
POINT SPREAD: HOU -1
MATCHUP QUALITY: 68.4 (of 100)
How close is this matchup? These teams played each other
twice this season and the combined score of the games was 58-58. One area where
these teams are very different is in how they protect their quarterbacks.
Indy's Luck was sacked just 18 times this season, and Houston's Deshaun
Watson was sacked 62 times. If Houston can solve the Colts'
offensive line, or if the Colts struggle to get to Watson, the game could swing
hard in the Texans' favor.
MY WIN PROJECTION: HOU, 61.3 percent. The
first-ever playoff matchup between AFC South teams features two of the hottest
teams in the league. Since Week 7, the Colts have gone 9-1 and the Texans are
8-2, and both teams rank in the top five in offensive efficiency and the top 10
in defensive efficiency in that span, according to FPI.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Luck vs. Texans' two-deep
coverage. In the two regular-season meetings, the Texans rolled to Cover 2 out
of their dime personnel in third-down situations. Look for Colts coach Frank
Reich to dial up some zone-beaters for his quarterback. The idea here is to
occupy defenders and create open windows for Luck to target T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron on
middle-of-the-field throws to move the sticks and extend drives. -- Bowen
BETTING NUGGETS: The Colts are 5-0-1 against the spread and 5-1 straight up in the past
six meetings in Houston. This includes a 24-21 win over the Texans as 4.5-point
underdogs in Week 14. -- Nelson
OFFICIATING SCOUTING REPORT: Referee Bill
Vinovich's regular-season crew threw the least flags (13.1 per game), including a league-low 27
offensive holding fouls. That's good news for the Colts. Their average of 8.8
flags per game was the league's third most, and the Colts' young offensive line
was vulnerable to holding fouls (33, fifth most). But Vinovich's crew was
notably vigilant about pre-snap fouls, and the Texans were flagged an NFL-high
36 times for false start or encroachment.
MY PICK The Colts will have their starting
offensive line together for the first time since the Nov. 18 game against
Tennessee. They'll need the continuity against Houston's pass rush, which had
43 sacks this season. The Colts accounted for 12 of Watson's 62 sacks this
season. I would give the Colts the edge if Hilton, who has 933 receiving yards
and seven touchdowns in seven career games in Houston, were healthy, but the
receiver reinjured an ankle against Tennessee in Week 17 and it's uncertain how
effective he'll be despite resting it and getting treatment all week. Texans
27, Colts 21
(5) SEAHAWKS
AT (4) COWBOYS
TIME: 8:15 p.m. ET,
TV: Fox
Point spread: DAL -2.5
Matchup quality: 68.9 (of 100)
Everybody knows the Cowboys like to run the ball, but the
Seahawks really like to run the ball. Seattle's 2,560
regular-season rushing yards led the NFL and made the Cowboys' 1,963 (still a
top-10 number) look pedestrian. Seattle is even averaging 2.77 rushing yards
per carry before first contact, which is better than the 2.65 Dallas and its
vaunted offensive line put up. Ezekiel
Elliott comes in rested, though, and the Cowboys were 7-1 at
home this season while Seattle was 4-4 on the road.
MY WIN PROJECTION: DAL, 57.3 percent. The
Cowboys are the favorites in this game, according to FPI, and their play at
home this season has something to do with it. Dallas ranked in the top 10 in
both offensive (ninth) and defensive (seventh) efficiency in home games this
season. The Cowboys also ranked in the top 10 in opponent Total QBR at home
this season (50.3), though Russell
Wilson actually had a higher QBR on the road (67.4) than at home
(63.7).
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Dak Prescott
vs. Seattle's third-down pass rush. The Seahawks registered the lowest blitz
rate of any defense in the league this season, but this unit led the NFL with
27 third-down sacks. This is a combination of an athletic defensive front and a
physical back seven who play with technique in the Seahawks' core coverages.
Watch for Seattle to stick in its single-high safety looks while utilizing
twist stunts on the defensive line to create pressure on Prescott. -- Bowen
BETTING NUGGETS: The Seahawks are 5-0 ATS with three outright wins in their past five games
as an underdog. They face a Cowboys team that is 0-2 ATS in two home playoff
games under Jason Garrett. -- Nelson
OFFICIATING SCOUTING REPORT: Referee Walt
Anderson's regular-season crew threw the second-most flags (17.7 per game), but
penalties were not a problem for either team this season. However, Anderson did
throw 10 flags for roughing the passer -- tied for third most in the league -- and the Cowboys were
flagged five times for it during the regular season, tied for the third
most.
MY PICK: In two career games against the
Seahawks (both losses), Prescott has thrown one touchdown pass to four
interceptions, and his 52.9 passer rating is his worst against any opponent.
The key for Seattle's defense against Prescott, according to Bobby Wagner,
has been the pressure they've put on him. Seattle sacked Prescott five times in
Week 3, and it had six sacks last week against Josh Rosen and
Arizona. The Seahawks have won at least one game in all six of their playoff
appearances under Pete Carroll. They'll make it 7-for-7 by getting to Prescott
and forcing him into a costly mistake. Seahawks 21, Cowboys 20
SUNDAY'S GAMES
(5) CHARGERS
AT (4) RAVENS
TIME: 1:05 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
POINT SPREAD: BAL -3
MATCHUP QUALITY: 81.0 (of 100)
These teams met just a couple of weeks ago, and Baltimore
got the better of the matchup in the Chargers' building. Now the Chargers,
being a 12-4 wild-card team, have to travel the length of the country for an
early-window Sunday start and try to solve a Ravens running game that baffled
them and everyone else over the second half of the season. Will it help the
Chargers that they're the first team to see this Lamar Jackson offense
up close twice? Perhaps, and the road hasn't bothered the Chargers, who posted
big conference wins in Pittsburgh and Kansas City en route to their second
playoff appearance in the past nine years
The playoff field is finally set. Here's your guide to
everything you need to know about the 12 teams vying to win Super Bowl LIII.
MY WIN PROJECTION: LAC, 50.8 percent. When these
two teams met in Los Angeles in Week 16, Philip Rivers had
his worst Total QBR in a game this season (30.0). However, Rivers has been much
better on the road this season, posting an 81.3 Total QBR (second best in the
league) compared with 58.9 at home. Though the Ravens' defense finished second
in points allowed and first in yards allowed this season, it actually ranked
seventh in defensive efficiency, according to FPI -- below the fifth-ranked
Chargers.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Rivers vs. Baltimore's
pressure packages. In the Ravens' Week 16 win over the Chargers, the Baltimore
defense racked up four sacks and eight quarterback hits on Rivers. And we know
Baltimore is going to dress up the defensive front to manipulate protection
schemes. It's on Rivers to identify blitz situations and find open windows on
second-level throws when Baltimore brings its five-man zone pressure. -- Bowen
BETTING NUGGETS: The Ravens have covered in
seven straight playoff games since the 2011 season. And the total has gone
under in all five of their home playoff games in Baltimore. -- Nelson
OFFICIATING SCOUTING REPORT: The Chargers (7.7
per game) and Ravens (8.3) ranked in the middle of the pack in total penalties,
and the Chargers were called for the second-fewest total of defensive pass
interference, illegal contact and defensive holding fouls (14) and the fewest
offensive pass interference penalties (one). The Ravens, on the other hand,
have been called for an NFL-high 10 offensive pass interference fouls. Referee
Clete Blakeman's crew threw eight offensive pass interference flags, tied for sixth
most.
MY PICK: The Chargers are 8-0 when boarding a
plane for a game this season, including wins at Kansas City, Pittsburgh and
Seattle, so they've played well on the road in hostile environments. The Bolts
also did a decent job of handling Baltimore's potent running game in the last
matchup, limiting Jackson to a season-low 39 rushing yards. They should
somewhat contain Baltimore's explosive running plays and will do a better job
protecting Rivers against a formidable Ravens defensive front. Also, Melvin Gordon is
healthier and should be more effective running the football in the
rematch. Chargers 24, Ravens 20
(6) Eagles at (3) Bears
TIME: 4:40 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Point spread: CHI -6
Matchup quality: 64.8 (of 100)
Opposing quarterbacks posted a league-low 50.8 Total QBR
against the Bears this season, but this is Nick Foles in
January, and a year ago that was pure magic. The defending Super Bowl champs
were left for dead six weeks ago, but they won five of their last six games to
snag the final NFC playoff spot. More than any team playing this weekend
(except certain pockets of Seattle's roster), the Eagles know how to win
playoff games. It will be a far tougher road from the No. 6 seed than the one
they took from the No. 1 spot a year ago, but everybody knows it's not easy to
knock out a champion.
MY WIN PROJECTION: CHI, 69.1 percent. The Bears
are FPI's biggest favorite of the weekend thanks mainly to the best defense in
the league this season, ranking first in defensive efficiency (77.9), according
to FPI, and first in opponent Total QBR allowed (50.5). But don't sleep on the
Bears' offense, either. Mitchell
Trubisky ranked third in the league in Total QBR (72.8), and
the Bears ranked 10th in offensive efficiency this season.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Vic Fangio's defense vs. Zach Ertz in
the red zone. The Eagles' tight end had 116 receptions this season, including
seven touchdowns inside the red zone. What's the answer for the Bears' No.
1-ranked defense? Based on past opponents, I anticipate the Bears using outside
linebackers Khalil Mack and Leonard Floyd to
disrupt the release of Ertz with a linebacker or safety catching over the top
to limit the tight end's production in scoring position.
BETTING NUGGETS: The Bears are a league-best
12-4 ATS this season, which is two games better than any other team. They face
an Eagles team that hasn't covered in consecutive games all season (covered
last week at Redskins).
OFFICIATING SCOUTING REPORT: Between referee
Tony Corrente's regular-season crew tying for the sixth-fewest flags (14.6 per game), the Eagles' average
of seven flags per game (No. 6) and the Bears' average of 7.1 (No. 9), you can
see a path toward a relatively flag-free game. The Bears and Eagles are tied
for the third-fewest total of defensive pass interference, illegal contact and
defensive holding calls (15). -- Seifert
MY PICK: The Bears' defense is a tough draw for
any team, but the Eagles match up pretty well. They are strong along the
offensive line, and Foles is getting the ball out about as quickly as anyone
over the past three games (2.46 seconds), which should help neutralize Mack and
that nasty Chicago pass rush. Philly's defense has been coming on strong of
late and will be eager to take advantage of any missteps Trubisky makes in his
postseason debut. Eagles 20, Bears 17
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