MAKING EACH NFL
TEAM'S BIGGEST FREE-AGENT DECISION
Will the Super Bowl champs bring back Trey Flowers?
How should the Steelers handle Le'Veon Bell? Which players could get the
franchise tag? Every team is facing some tough questions.
Today I play general manager for each team, deciding whether
teams should pay or pass with these decisions, factoring in player performance
and impact, team depth, financial implications and more.
Some decisions involved the franchise tag. Some were
big-money, long-term deals. Others were about upgrading in the draft. Here's
what I would do with the top significant free-agent decisions this offseason.
AFC NORTH
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
RB Le'Veon Bell: The seemingly
never-ending saga surrounding Bell might soon, well, end. The Steelers could
pursue options that would give them opportunities to either trade Bell or match
another offer extended to him (a use of the franchise or transition tag), but
as the team prepares for what might be an offseason of change (notably a
possible trade of Antonio Brown),
there's merit to simply moving on. The team has an excellent track record of
talent evaluation, saw the emergence of James Conner and Jaylen
Samuels in 2018 and has enough needs to use that money
elsewhere.
Verdict: Let Bell walk.
BALTIMORE
RAVENS
LB C.J. Mosley: New
Ravens GM Eric DeCosta faces a situation similar to the one Green Bay
counterpart Brian Gutekunst dealt with last year: Would Gutekunst, in his first
few months on the job, really play hardball and let negotiations with Aaron Rodgers linger
when it was clear that both sides had interest? The answer, of course, was no.
DeCosta has been with the Ravens for a long time and is no stranger to the
players, but as the man now calling the shots, keeping a leader, a stalwart and
a linebacker in his prime is a slam dunk. It's just a matter of finding the
cost.
CINCINNATI
BENGALS
TE Tyler Eifert:
Unfortunately, the Bengals have extensive experience with what the offense
looks like without Eifert, who's missed 53 of 96 career regular-season games. When
healthy, Eifert provides size and athleticism that is useful in the red zone,
though that is an uncommon occurrence of late. This really comes down to a
matter of patience: The Bengals are a team that likes to draft, develop and
reinvest; keeping Eifert would fit that bill. But as the team pivots to a new
head coach and perhaps a youth infusion, moving forward might be the better
course of action rather than making what would likely be a one-year investment
in Eifert again.
Verdict: Let Eifert walk.
CLEVELAND
BROWNS
QB Tyrod Taylor: The
quarterback carousel spins rapidly in the NFL, as Taylor has shown in a career
that has included stops as a backup in Baltimore, a starter in Buffalo and then
stints as both in Cleveland. While Taylor is an imperfect option as a starter,
he still has enough traits that NFL teams looking for a starter will consider
him this March. Which likely means that Cleveland, which already has Drew Stanton under
contract for 2019, would be priced out on a deal for Taylor.
Verdict: Let Taylor walk.
AFC EAST
BUFFALO BILLS
OG John Miller: When
head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane were hired, the
vision for the Bills' future called for a roster build. A surprise run to the
playoffs in 2017 was exhilarating, but also ahead of schedule. The Bills now
enter an offseason in the healthiest place during the McDermott/Beane tenure:
equipped with cap space (estimated around $82 million), a young quarterback and
a rock-solid defense. Miller is a fine player; he showed strides in 2018 and
can be a starter. Ideally, however, he'd be a depth-level player along your
line who can start in a pinch.
Verdict: Re-sign Miller to a modest deal.
MIAMI
DOLPHINS
OT Ja'Wuan James: As
new head coach Brian Flores embarks upon his first offseason, the Dolphins need
to honestly evaluate where they are in the roster-building process. James is a
stud right tackle, and those get paid handsomely on the open market. James is
worth the payday for someone -- the Dolphins just need to decide how aggressive
they want to be in retaining him. He's only 26, and as the Dolphins begin a
likely search for a long-term quarterback solution, fortifying the offensive
line should be a priority. Keeping James won't come cheap but is a reasonable
first step.
Verdict: Re-sign James.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS
DE Trey Flowers: The
numbers don't paint the full story on Flowers, but he's a terrific edge player
with pass-rush juice to disrupt a game. The predicament for the Patriots likely
starts with this: to tag or not to tag? The tag projects to cost north of $16 million
for one season, which is too steep if a long-term deal feels out of reach. The
Patriots would seem to be interested in reaching a long-term deal at a lower
number with Flowers prior to the start of free agency. But would Flowers have
any interest in securing an extension before reaching the open market?
Verdict: Aim for a long-term extension before
free agency.
NEW YORK JETS
DE Henry
Anderson: The Jets have the resources (a projected
$95 million in cap space) to be as aggressive as any team, and many in league
circles view GM Mike Maccagnan as likely to be just that. That doesn't mean
merely big-game hunting to help surround quarterback Sam Darnold with
support -- it also includes retaining players who have shown promise. Anderson
fired off 4.5 sacks in the final three games this past season and is a player
Maccagnan traded a seventh-round pick for in the 2018 draft. While some wonder
exactly where he fits within a new 4-3 scheme for the Jets, he's a dependable
player with an improving skill set and a positive locker room presence. He'll
find his spot.
Verdict: Re-sign Anderson.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON
TEXANS
S Tyrann
Mathieu: When a player signs a one-year deal, it
offsets the risk for the team and also gives the player a chance to
re-establish his value. Mathieu accomplished the latter, as he was a near
every-down player for the Texans and a wonderful addition to the defense. He's
versatile, an excellent communicator, plays with passion and is just 26 years
old. The Texans have another important decision to make on Jadeveon
Clowney (a franchise tag could be in play there). Mathieu
deserves a new deal.
Verdict: Re-sign Mathieu to a multiyear deal.
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
DE Margus Hunt: The
beauty of the Colts' defense last season was that it maximized players who were
scheme fits. Hunt had his best season in 2018, showing the versatility to slide
to defensive tackle and capably handle duties there. The Colts are about as
cap-flush as any team in the NFL (projected cap space of $105 million) and can
get in the mix on almost any free agent they want, in-house options included.
There are other defensive reinforcements that will be made, but keeping the
guys who fit is a nice start. That said Hunt earned a solid deal, so this won't
be a bargain-basement buy.
Verdict: Re-sign Hunt to a multiyear deal.
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS
CB Tyler Patmon: With
key cog Josh Lambo already
signed up for four more seasons, the Jaguars turn toward a piece of roster
depth, as Patmon -- who started two of the 12 games he played in last season --
has been a steady contributor to a secondary that is still as talent-laden as
nearly any in football. Yes, the Jaguars will be fine in the back end as long
as Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are
around, but depth surrounding them matters in a league where offenses are more
multiple than ever.
Verdict: Re-sign Patmon.
TENNESSEE
TITANS
S Kenny Vaccaro: In
a league where offenses are seemingly more prolific than ever, Super Bowl LIII
proved that defense ain't dead. The Titans profile as a team that wants to
impose its will physically on both sides of the ball, with Vaccaro possessing
the requisite traits to do just that. He jelled with the locker room after a
long wait to find a team last offseason, with signs pointing toward Tennessee
wanting to keep him around. Even with Johnathan
Cyprien set to return to the lineup, there's plenty of value in
secondary depth.
Verdict: Re-sign Vaccaro.
AFC WEST
DENVER
BRONCOS
C Matt Paradis: There
are a lot of traits that coaches want in an offensive lineman, and reliability
is typically near the top. Paradis had personified reliability before suffering
a season-ending broken leg, playing every snap in his 56-game career prior to
that. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and the Broncos need their offensive
line to be a strength for whoever starts under center next season. Paradis is
worth big bucks.
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
LB Dee Ford: The
Chiefs are a year away
from perhaps paying Patrick
Mahomes record-setting money, something that will alter the way
the team constructs its roster. Ford was the Chiefs' second-best defensive
player this past season. The Chiefs could see many pass-heavy opponents next
season as they try to play catch-up with Kansas City's offense, so having
effective edge rushers to combat that is important. He's a home-grown talent
the Chiefs should find a way to retain.
Verdict: Use franchise tag on Ford.
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS
WR Tyrell
Williams: In what profiles as a thin wide receiver class
for free agents, Williams might be the best on the market. He has outstanding
vertical presence but finds himself among a logjam of wideouts in Los Angeles,
with Keenan Allen leading
the way and Mike Williams ascending.
GM Tom Telesco has built one of the league's most balanced and competitive
rosters, and while Tyrell Williams is a solid player, the money needed to
retain him would be better served at other positions to fortify the few spots
where Los Angeles is not as deep.
Verdict: Let Williams walk.
OAKLAND
RAIDERS
RB Marshawn
Lynch: Ultimately the Raiders must zero in on
players who can be building blocks for them going forward, but Lynch is a
unique case. While the team seeks a home for the 2019 season, Lynch would not
only bring value to the backfield but would also be a player whom fans -- if
the Raiders stay in Oakland -- could rally around considering his roots and
connection with the city. Given that Lynch has seemingly no interest in playing
elsewhere, a deal with the Raiders could come in a straightforward manner: a
one-year, moderately priced agreement.
Verdict: Re-sign Lynch for one year.
NFC EAST
DALLAS
COWBOYS
DE DeMarcus
Lawrence: The Cowboys will face this situation a lot
in the near future: an awesome player is set to hit the open market or is
eligible for an extension. Lawrence is the first one up, and while the
franchise tag looms, it would behoove Dallas to hammer out a deal now. It will
be incredibly expensive ... and worth it. He's one of the game's premier
players. Locking up Lawrence also allows Dallas to operate with a clearer financial
picture as it pertains to its other soon-to-be free agents.
Verdict: Re-sign Lawrence to a multiyear deal.
NEW YORK
GIANTS
S Landon
Collins: No need to overthink it: Collins is one of
the Giants' very best and most impactful defensive players. When you get the
chance to take care of your own with a 25-year-old leader, it shouldn't require
much deliberation. The only question is how much do the Giants have to offer
for Collins to accept before he's potentially franchise-tagged?
Verdict: Re-sign Collins long-term.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
DE Brandon
Graham: If the Eagles are going to use the franchise
tag on Nick Foles,
they'll need to create some cap room first (even if a player has not signed his
franchise-tag tender, he still counts against the cap for the amount of the
tag). Philly has invested a lot to build a really good roster, meaning it's
hard to find wiggle room. Ideally, Graham sticks around; but at a position that
is compensated well on the open market, he figures to see offers north of what
the Eagles can present.
Verdict: Let Graham walk.
WASHINGTON
REDSKINS
LB Preston Smith: Free
agency is about paying for traits, not past production. While Smith didn't fill
up the stat sheet in 2018, he's a player who will be attractive to teams around
the league. So if I'm Washington, I work hard to secure a deal with Smith
before the market opens. Are there some questions about how exactly he fits
into a defense that looks likely to evolve this offseason? Perhaps. But the
tools are there for him to be a productive pass-rusher, and that is simply too
important to quality defensive play in today's NFL.
Verdict: Re-sign Smith.
NFC NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS
S Adrian Amos: The
task at hand for GM Ryan Pace is an enviable one: managing how to pay all of
his talented players. The Bears are light on cap space (projected around $5.4
million), but that's OK given so much of their core is already locked in for at
least three more seasons. And Pace has to keep future deals for safety Eddie Jackson and
quarterback Mitchell
Trubisky in mind. Amos is a really solid player -- a key
starter for the Bears -- but if his asking price is a top-of-the-market deal,
Chicago might have to exercise some caution.
Verdict: Allow Amos to test the market, re-sign
if at a reasonable price tag.
DETROIT LIONS
DE Romeo Okwara: The
Lions will almost assuredly tender Okwara, but not at the original round level.
Okwara entered the league as an undrafted free agent, meaning tendering him at
that level would allow a team to sign him to a deal and if Detroit were to
decline to match it, the Lions would receive nothing. While the specific value
of a first-, second- or original-round tender is not yet known, we can project
a second-round tender to be north of $3 million for 2019. That would be a raise
for Okwara and also a deterrent for other teams to offer him a contract; he's a
solid player, but acquiring him via a new deal and sending a second-round pick
is too steep.
Verdict: Tender him at the second-round level.
GREEN BAY
PACKERS
OLB Clay Matthews: Colleague
Rob Demovsky noted that Matthews might be best suited to work as an inside
linebacker for Green Bay, a role he's played previously. Matthews doesn't
project to see a robust market for his services if he reaches free agency, and
he has been an influential part of the franchise since being drafted 10 years
ago. While Green Bay might opt to start fresh in many ways after a stale 2018
and the hiring of head coach Matt LaFleur, a modest money deal might be enough
to entice Matthews to stay put.
Verdict: Retain Matthews on a short-term deal.
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS
LB Anthony Barr: Amid
an offseason when several key players (including Stefon Diggs, Danielle
Hunter and Eric
Kendricks) received new deals, it was notable that Barr did not.
Head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive mastermind who certainly wouldn't want to
surrender a player like Barr who has flashed skill throughout his career, but
the Vikings are a team with enough talent that difficult decisions are going to
be a norm in choosing whom to extend and whom to replace. With a strong need to
fortify the offensive line, the Vikings might use their assets there while
allowing Barr to test the market.
Verdict: Let Barr walk.
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA
FALCONS
DT Grady Jarrett: When
a general manager addresses a contract situation publicly, he knows the
reality: You need to follow through. Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff has made no
mystery that he wants to extend superstar Jarrett, a player Dimitroff stole in
the fifth round of the 2015 draft. It won't be cheap and it shouldn't be:
Jarrett is outstanding. A deal will likely get done.
Verdict: Re-sign Jarrett to a multiyear deal.
CAROLINA
PANTHERS
OT Chris Clark: After Eric Reid was
signed to a deserved three-year extension, Clark became the free-agent focus.
Clark earned his keep last season for Carolina, signing a deal after the
beginning of the regular season and eventually starting 13 games at the crucial
left tackle spot. Clark is not the long-term solution at left tackle and might
not necessarily be the short-term solution -- Carolina would be wise to study
tackles in this year's draft -- but as the team learned the hard way last year,
offensive line depth is essential.
Verdict: Re-sign Clark to a short-term deal.
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
QB Teddy
Bridgewater: The move to acquire Bridgewater was a sensible
insurance policy for the Saints, but it's logical to surmise that New Orleans
envisioned it as a likely one-year proposition. Bridgewater should see interest
to possibly start elsewhere, and while the idea of eventually taking over
for Drew Brees might
be alluring, there are two factors to consider: Can New Orleans afford to pay
Bridgewater starter-level money until that time and, of course, how many years
away is that? Bridgewater has a clearer path to start by moving on.
Verdict: Let Bridgewater walk.
TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS
LB Kwon
Alexander and OT Donovan Smith: A
pair of decisions to make here, so let's break it down this way: Which player
should be the priority? While Alexander has reached a higher level of
performance at his position in his career, Smith plays a more indispensable
spot at left tackle. He's never missed a game, and replacing a left tackle is a
massive chore for any team in the offseason. In an ideal world, both players
stick. But when in doubt, find a way to keep the offensive line intact.
Verdict: Prioritize Smith, angle to retain
Alexander.
NFC WEST
ARIZONA
CARDINALS
DE Markus Golden: Golden
profiles as a natural candidate to take a one-year deal in hopes of regaining
his form from 2016, when he had double-digit sacks. The Cardinals are in the
early stages of what could be a meticulous rebuild. While there is minimal risk
in a one-year deal from a team side, the Cardinals don't need to extend
themselves financially to consummate such a deal. With Chandler
Jones and the first overall draft pick, the Cardinals have the
means to build a dynamic front seven.
Verdict: Let Golden walk.
LOS ANGELES
RAMS
DT Ndamukong Suh: The
Rams have a really good problem on their hands: GM Les Snead has built one of
the best rosters in the NFL, and it's going to cost a lot of money to keep it
together. Players due for a new deal soon include cornerback Marcus Peters and
eventually the likes of quarterback Jared Goff and
linebacker Cory
Littleton (a restricted free agent this offseason). Suh had
some dominant moments last season (he played well in the playoffs) and might
want to take another bite at the free-agency apple with a team equipped to give
him a multiyear deal.
Verdict: Let Suh walk.
SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
K Robbie Gould: Under
GM John Lynch, the 49ers have been unafraid to spend aggressively on free
agents, be it in-house options or those on the open market. The team handed
fullback Kyle Juszczyk a
record-setting deal and later did the same to retain Jimmy
Garoppolo, proving a willingness to pay top dollar for players who
are a part of their core going forward. Gould might be 36, but he remains one
of the games very best at his position. Kickers have a longer window to succeed
than those at most other positions; the 49ers have too much money to spend to
miss out on retaining him.
Verdict: Sign Gould to a multiyear deal.
SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS
DE Frank Clark: Clark
and his agent had little interest in discussing an extension during the 2018
season, opting to play out the final year of Clark's rookie contract with the
chance to take his value to the next level. Smart choice, as Clark registered
another double-digit-sack season. He's a star player at 25 and would command an
outstanding contract if he were available. The Seahawks are a year away from
the expiration of Russell
Wilson's contract, which makes using the franchise tag on Clark this
season a tad more uncertain: Would you want to risk having both players
scheduled to be free agents in 2020? A tag for Clark feels like Seattle's
starting point.
Verdict: Use franchise tag on Clark.
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