Wednesday, February 20, 2019

GM FOR A DAY


MAKING EACH NFL TEAM'S BIGGEST FREE-AGENT DECISION
Will the Super Bowl champs bring back Trey Flowers? How should the Steelers handle Le'Veon Bell? Which players could get the franchise tag? Every team is facing some tough questions.
Today I play general manager for each team, deciding whether teams should pay or pass with these decisions, factoring in player performance and impact, team depth, financial implications and more.
Some decisions involved the franchise tag. Some were big-money, long-term deals. Others were about upgrading in the draft. Here's what I would do with the top significant free-agent decisions this offseason.
AFC NORTH
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
RB Le'Veon Bell: The seemingly never-ending saga surrounding Bell might soon, well, end. The Steelers could pursue options that would give them opportunities to either trade Bell or match another offer extended to him (a use of the franchise or transition tag), but as the team prepares for what might be an offseason of change (notably a possible trade of Antonio Brown), there's merit to simply moving on. The team has an excellent track record of talent evaluation, saw the emergence of James Conner and Jaylen Samuels in 2018 and has enough needs to use that money elsewhere.
Verdict: Let Bell walk.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
LB C.J. Mosley: New Ravens GM Eric DeCosta faces a situation similar to the one Green Bay counterpart Brian Gutekunst dealt with last year: Would Gutekunst, in his first few months on the job, really play hardball and let negotiations with Aaron Rodgers linger when it was clear that both sides had interest? The answer, of course, was no. DeCosta has been with the Ravens for a long time and is no stranger to the players, but as the man now calling the shots, keeping a leader, a stalwart and a linebacker in his prime is a slam dunk. It's just a matter of finding the cost.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
TE Tyler Eifert: Unfortunately, the Bengals have extensive experience with what the offense looks like without Eifert, who's missed 53 of 96 career regular-season games. When healthy, Eifert provides size and athleticism that is useful in the red zone, though that is an uncommon occurrence of late. This really comes down to a matter of patience: The Bengals are a team that likes to draft, develop and reinvest; keeping Eifert would fit that bill. But as the team pivots to a new head coach and perhaps a youth infusion, moving forward might be the better course of action rather than making what would likely be a one-year investment in Eifert again.
Verdict: Let Eifert walk.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
QB Tyrod Taylor: The quarterback carousel spins rapidly in the NFL, as Taylor has shown in a career that has included stops as a backup in Baltimore, a starter in Buffalo and then stints as both in Cleveland. While Taylor is an imperfect option as a starter, he still has enough traits that NFL teams looking for a starter will consider him this March. Which likely means that Cleveland, which already has Drew Stanton under contract for 2019, would be priced out on a deal for Taylor.
Verdict: Let Taylor walk.
AFC EAST
BUFFALO BILLS
OG John Miller: When head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane were hired, the vision for the Bills' future called for a roster build. A surprise run to the playoffs in 2017 was exhilarating, but also ahead of schedule. The Bills now enter an offseason in the healthiest place during the McDermott/Beane tenure: equipped with cap space (estimated around $82 million), a young quarterback and a rock-solid defense. Miller is a fine player; he showed strides in 2018 and can be a starter. Ideally, however, he'd be a depth-level player along your line who can start in a pinch.
Verdict: Re-sign Miller to a modest deal.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
OT Ja'Wuan James: As new head coach Brian Flores embarks upon his first offseason, the Dolphins need to honestly evaluate where they are in the roster-building process. James is a stud right tackle, and those get paid handsomely on the open market. James is worth the payday for someone -- the Dolphins just need to decide how aggressive they want to be in retaining him. He's only 26, and as the Dolphins begin a likely search for a long-term quarterback solution, fortifying the offensive line should be a priority. Keeping James won't come cheap but is a reasonable first step.
Verdict: Re-sign James.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
DE Trey Flowers: The numbers don't paint the full story on Flowers, but he's a terrific edge player with pass-rush juice to disrupt a game. The predicament for the Patriots likely starts with this: to tag or not to tag? The tag projects to cost north of $16 million for one season, which is too steep if a long-term deal feels out of reach. The Patriots would seem to be interested in reaching a long-term deal at a lower number with Flowers prior to the start of free agency. But would Flowers have any interest in securing an extension before reaching the open market?
Verdict: Aim for a long-term extension before free agency.
NEW YORK JETS
DE Henry Anderson: The Jets have the resources (a projected $95 million in cap space) to be as aggressive as any team, and many in league circles view GM Mike Maccagnan as likely to be just that. That doesn't mean merely big-game hunting to help surround quarterback Sam Darnold with support -- it also includes retaining players who have shown promise. Anderson fired off 4.5 sacks in the final three games this past season and is a player Maccagnan traded a seventh-round pick for in the 2018 draft. While some wonder exactly where he fits within a new 4-3 scheme for the Jets, he's a dependable player with an improving skill set and a positive locker room presence. He'll find his spot.
Verdict: Re-sign Anderson.
AFC SOUTH
HOUSTON TEXANS
Tyrann Mathieu: When a player signs a one-year deal, it offsets the risk for the team and also gives the player a chance to re-establish his value. Mathieu accomplished the latter, as he was a near every-down player for the Texans and a wonderful addition to the defense. He's versatile, an excellent communicator, plays with passion and is just 26 years old. The Texans have another important decision to make on Jadeveon Clowney (a franchise tag could be in play there). Mathieu deserves a new deal.
Verdict: Re-sign Mathieu to a multiyear deal.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
DE Margus Hunt: The beauty of the Colts' defense last season was that it maximized players who were scheme fits. Hunt had his best season in 2018, showing the versatility to slide to defensive tackle and capably handle duties there. The Colts are about as cap-flush as any team in the NFL (projected cap space of $105 million) and can get in the mix on almost any free agent they want, in-house options included. There are other defensive reinforcements that will be made, but keeping the guys who fit is a nice start. That said Hunt earned a solid deal, so this won't be a bargain-basement buy.
Verdict: Re-sign Hunt to a multiyear deal.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
CB Tyler Patmon: With key cog Josh Lambo already signed up for four more seasons, the Jaguars turn toward a piece of roster depth, as Patmon -- who started two of the 12 games he played in last season -- has been a steady contributor to a secondary that is still as talent-laden as nearly any in football. Yes, the Jaguars will be fine in the back end as long as Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are around, but depth surrounding them matters in a league where offenses are more multiple than ever.
Verdict: Re-sign Patmon.
TENNESSEE TITANS
Kenny Vaccaro: In a league where offenses are seemingly more prolific than ever, Super Bowl LIII proved that defense ain't dead. The Titans profile as a team that wants to impose its will physically on both sides of the ball, with Vaccaro possessing the requisite traits to do just that. He jelled with the locker room after a long wait to find a team last offseason, with signs pointing toward Tennessee wanting to keep him around. Even with Johnathan Cyprien set to return to the lineup, there's plenty of value in secondary depth.
Verdict: Re-sign Vaccaro.
AFC WEST
DENVER BRONCOS
Matt Paradis: There are a lot of traits that coaches want in an offensive lineman, and reliability is typically near the top. Paradis had personified reliability before suffering a season-ending broken leg, playing every snap in his 56-game career prior to that. He's tough, he's smart, he competes, and the Broncos need their offensive line to be a strength for whoever starts under center next season. Paradis is worth big bucks.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
LB Dee Ford: The Chiefs are a year away from perhaps paying Patrick Mahomes record-setting money, something that will alter the way the team constructs its roster. Ford was the Chiefs' second-best defensive player this past season. The Chiefs could see many pass-heavy opponents next season as they try to play catch-up with Kansas City's offense, so having effective edge rushers to combat that is important. He's a home-grown talent the Chiefs should find a way to retain.
Verdict: Use franchise tag on Ford.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
WR Tyrell Williams: In what profiles as a thin wide receiver class for free agents, Williams might be the best on the market. He has outstanding vertical presence but finds himself among a logjam of wideouts in Los Angeles, with Keenan Allen leading the way and Mike Williams ascending. GM Tom Telesco has built one of the league's most balanced and competitive rosters, and while Tyrell Williams is a solid player, the money needed to retain him would be better served at other positions to fortify the few spots where Los Angeles is not as deep.
Verdict: Let Williams walk.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
RB Marshawn Lynch: Ultimately the Raiders must zero in on players who can be building blocks for them going forward, but Lynch is a unique case. While the team seeks a home for the 2019 season, Lynch would not only bring value to the backfield but would also be a player whom fans -- if the Raiders stay in Oakland -- could rally around considering his roots and connection with the city. Given that Lynch has seemingly no interest in playing elsewhere, a deal with the Raiders could come in a straightforward manner: a one-year, moderately priced agreement.
Verdict: Re-sign Lynch for one year.
NFC EAST
DALLAS COWBOYS
DE DeMarcus Lawrence: The Cowboys will face this situation a lot in the near future: an awesome player is set to hit the open market or is eligible for an extension. Lawrence is the first one up, and while the franchise tag looms, it would behoove Dallas to hammer out a deal now. It will be incredibly expensive ... and worth it. He's one of the game's premier players. Locking up Lawrence also allows Dallas to operate with a clearer financial picture as it pertains to its other soon-to-be free agents.
Verdict: Re-sign Lawrence to a multiyear deal.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Landon Collins: No need to overthink it: Collins is one of the Giants' very best and most impactful defensive players. When you get the chance to take care of your own with a 25-year-old leader, it shouldn't require much deliberation. The only question is how much do the Giants have to offer for Collins to accept before he's potentially franchise-tagged?
Verdict: Re-sign Collins long-term.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
DE Brandon Graham: If the Eagles are going to use the franchise tag on Nick Foles, they'll need to create some cap room first (even if a player has not signed his franchise-tag tender, he still counts against the cap for the amount of the tag). Philly has invested a lot to build a really good roster, meaning it's hard to find wiggle room. Ideally, Graham sticks around; but at a position that is compensated well on the open market, he figures to see offers north of what the Eagles can present.
Verdict: Let Graham walk.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
LB Preston Smith: Free agency is about paying for traits, not past production. While Smith didn't fill up the stat sheet in 2018, he's a player who will be attractive to teams around the league. So if I'm Washington, I work hard to secure a deal with Smith before the market opens. Are there some questions about how exactly he fits into a defense that looks likely to evolve this offseason? Perhaps. But the tools are there for him to be a productive pass-rusher, and that is simply too important to quality defensive play in today's NFL.
Verdict: Re-sign Smith.
NFC NORTH
CHICAGO BEARS
Adrian Amos: The task at hand for GM Ryan Pace is an enviable one: managing how to pay all of his talented players. The Bears are light on cap space (projected around $5.4 million), but that's OK given so much of their core is already locked in for at least three more seasons. And Pace has to keep future deals for safety Eddie Jackson and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky in mind. Amos is a really solid player -- a key starter for the Bears -- but if his asking price is a top-of-the-market deal, Chicago might have to exercise some caution.
Verdict: Allow Amos to test the market, re-sign if at a reasonable price tag.
DETROIT LIONS
DE Romeo Okwara: The Lions will almost assuredly tender Okwara, but not at the original round level. Okwara entered the league as an undrafted free agent, meaning tendering him at that level would allow a team to sign him to a deal and if Detroit were to decline to match it, the Lions would receive nothing. While the specific value of a first-, second- or original-round tender is not yet known, we can project a second-round tender to be north of $3 million for 2019. That would be a raise for Okwara and also a deterrent for other teams to offer him a contract; he's a solid player, but acquiring him via a new deal and sending a second-round pick is too steep.
Verdict: Tender him at the second-round level.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
OLB Clay Matthews: Colleague Rob Demovsky noted that Matthews might be best suited to work as an inside linebacker for Green Bay, a role he's played previously. Matthews doesn't project to see a robust market for his services if he reaches free agency, and he has been an influential part of the franchise since being drafted 10 years ago. While Green Bay might opt to start fresh in many ways after a stale 2018 and the hiring of head coach Matt LaFleur, a modest money deal might be enough to entice Matthews to stay put.
Verdict: Retain Matthews on a short-term deal.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
LB Anthony Barr: Amid an offseason when several key players (including Stefon DiggsDanielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks) received new deals, it was notable that Barr did not. Head coach Mike Zimmer is a defensive mastermind who certainly wouldn't want to surrender a player like Barr who has flashed skill throughout his career, but the Vikings are a team with enough talent that difficult decisions are going to be a norm in choosing whom to extend and whom to replace. With a strong need to fortify the offensive line, the Vikings might use their assets there while allowing Barr to test the market.
Verdict: Let Barr walk.
NFC SOUTH
ATLANTA FALCONS
DT Grady Jarrett: When a general manager addresses a contract situation publicly, he knows the reality: You need to follow through. Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff has made no mystery that he wants to extend superstar Jarrett, a player Dimitroff stole in the fifth round of the 2015 draft. It won't be cheap and it shouldn't be: Jarrett is outstanding. A deal will likely get done.
Verdict: Re-sign Jarrett to a multiyear deal.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
OT Chris Clark: After Eric Reid was signed to a deserved three-year extension, Clark became the free-agent focus. Clark earned his keep last season for Carolina, signing a deal after the beginning of the regular season and eventually starting 13 games at the crucial left tackle spot. Clark is not the long-term solution at left tackle and might not necessarily be the short-term solution -- Carolina would be wise to study tackles in this year's draft -- but as the team learned the hard way last year, offensive line depth is essential.
Verdict: Re-sign Clark to a short-term deal.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
QB Teddy Bridgewater: The move to acquire Bridgewater was a sensible insurance policy for the Saints, but it's logical to surmise that New Orleans envisioned it as a likely one-year proposition. Bridgewater should see interest to possibly start elsewhere, and while the idea of eventually taking over for Drew Brees might be alluring, there are two factors to consider: Can New Orleans afford to pay Bridgewater starter-level money until that time and, of course, how many years away is that? Bridgewater has a clearer path to start by moving on.
Verdict: Let Bridgewater walk.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
LB Kwon Alexander and OT Donovan Smith: A pair of decisions to make here, so let's break it down this way: Which player should be the priority? While Alexander has reached a higher level of performance at his position in his career, Smith plays a more indispensable spot at left tackle. He's never missed a game, and replacing a left tackle is a massive chore for any team in the offseason. In an ideal world, both players stick. But when in doubt, find a way to keep the offensive line intact.
Verdict: Prioritize Smith, angle to retain Alexander.
NFC WEST
ARIZONA CARDINALS
DE Markus Golden: Golden profiles as a natural candidate to take a one-year deal in hopes of regaining his form from 2016, when he had double-digit sacks. The Cardinals are in the early stages of what could be a meticulous rebuild. While there is minimal risk in a one-year deal from a team side, the Cardinals don't need to extend themselves financially to consummate such a deal. With Chandler Jones and the first overall draft pick, the Cardinals have the means to build a dynamic front seven.
Verdict: Let Golden walk.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
DT Ndamukong Suh: The Rams have a really good problem on their hands: GM Les Snead has built one of the best rosters in the NFL, and it's going to cost a lot of money to keep it together. Players due for a new deal soon include cornerback Marcus Peters and eventually the likes of quarterback Jared Goff and linebacker Cory Littleton (a restricted free agent this offseason). Suh had some dominant moments last season (he played well in the playoffs) and might want to take another bite at the free-agency apple with a team equipped to give him a multiyear deal.
Verdict: Let Suh walk.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Robbie Gould: Under GM John Lynch, the 49ers have been unafraid to spend aggressively on free agents, be it in-house options or those on the open market. The team handed fullback Kyle Juszczyk a record-setting deal and later did the same to retain Jimmy Garoppolo, proving a willingness to pay top dollar for players who are a part of their core going forward. Gould might be 36, but he remains one of the games very best at his position. Kickers have a longer window to succeed than those at most other positions; the 49ers have too much money to spend to miss out on retaining him.
Verdict: Sign Gould to a multiyear deal.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
DE Frank Clark: Clark and his agent had little interest in discussing an extension during the 2018 season, opting to play out the final year of Clark's rookie contract with the chance to take his value to the next level. Smart choice, as Clark registered another double-digit-sack season. He's a star player at 25 and would command an outstanding contract if he were available. The Seahawks are a year away from the expiration of Russell Wilson's contract, which makes using the franchise tag on Clark this season a tad more uncertain: Would you want to risk having both players scheduled to be free agents in 2020? A tag for Clark feels like Seattle's starting point.
Verdict: Use franchise tag on Clark.

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