I PROJECT THE WINNERS OF THE BIGGEST NBA PLAYOFF RACES

Which teams can we expect to prevail in the key races remaining for NBA playoff positioning?

The post-All-Star portion of the 2018-19 season tips off with seven games Thursday night, although the league is already well past the midway point. Teams have less than one-third of the schedule remaining to make up ground and put themselves in position to succeed in the postseason.

With the help of statistical projections, let's take a look at who has the edge in the biggest races, including who gets home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs and whether the Los Angeles Lakers and star LeBron James can reach the postseason at all.

WHO FINISHES FIRST IN THE EAST?

The Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors both hit the All-Star break with 43 wins, though the Bucks are a game up in the standings and two up in the loss column, having played two fewer games than the Raptors. Milwaukee also has a key advantage as the East's top two teams jockey for home court throughout the East playoffs (and possibly into the NBA Finals, since the Golden State Warriors are another full game back). The Bucks won the season series 3-1, giving them the head-to-head tiebreaker.

As a result, projections using ESPN's Basketball Power Index show Milwaukee claiming the top seed in the East some 88 percent of the time despite Toronto facing the second-easiest remaining schedule by BPI's calculations. Of course, that could be a dubious benefit depending on how the race for third through fifth in the East shakes out. About that ...

WHO FINISHES THIRD AND FOURTH IN THE EAST?

Though all the focus is on the four most talented teams in the East, the Indiana Pacers are still third as of the break, a game ahead of the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. If the Pacers could somehow hold off Boston and Philadelphia, a second-round matchup against Indiana would look much more favorable given their lack of star talent, making the No. 2 seed a pretty good place to be.

FiveThirtyEight's projections, which account for the injury to All-Star guard Victor Oladipo, show that outcome as a long shot. The 76ers win an average of 54 games in those projections, the Celtics 53 and the Pacers just 50 -- which would mean going .500 over the last 24 games.

Indiana does have the toughest remaining schedule of these teams (eighth hardest in the NBA, per BPI), but I think FiveThirtyEight's model might undersell the Pacers' chances of hanging on to third. Since Oladipo's injury, the Pacers have gone 6-5 with a plus-2.3 point differential adjusted for opponent and location. That would translate to a 14-10 finish against an average schedule, putting them right in the mix with Boston and Philadelphia.

Most likely, one of the Celtics and Sixers will be able to pass Indiana, avoiding a first-round playoff rematch with a crushing disappointment on the line for the loser. But the Pacers finishing third shouldn't be ruled out.

WHO MAKES THE PLAYOFFS IN THE EAST?

With the Brooklyn Nets having slightly separated themselves from the pack, four teams are jostling for the last two East playoff spots, and they are separated by just one game coming out of the break: Charlotte (27-30), Detroit (26-30), Miami (26-30) and Orlando (27-32). FiveThirtyEight puts all of their chances between one-third and two-thirds, with the Washington Wizards (24-34) also in the mix in that model. I'd consider a Washington run a long shot, but any combination of the other four teams is realistic.

FiveThirtyEight shows the Magic reaching the playoffs more than half the time, which owes largely to their favorable schedule -- easiest in the league the rest of the way, according to BPI. Orlando has two games apiece left against the Atlanta Hawks, Cleveland Cavaliers, Memphis Grizzlies and New York Knicks, all of them playing only for lottery position at this point. The Magic also went into the All-Star break on a roll, having won five in a row by an average of 22.8 points per game. So I'd bet on Orlando to make its first playoff appearance since 2012, with the Pistons most likely to claim the last spot.

WHO GETS THE FOURTH SEED IN THE WEST?

Though the Warriors have just a two-game lead over the Denver Nuggets, a relatively favorable schedule should help them pull away for the top seed in the West, with Denver and the Oklahoma City Thunder most likely being 2-3 in some order despite the two hardest remaining schedules, according to BPI. That would account for three of the four top seeds in the opening round, with a furious battle for the last spot.

The Portland Trail Blazers are fourth, a game ahead of the Houston Rockets and two up on the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz, but the schedule will work against them the rest of the way. Portland has a tough six-game road trip coming out of the break, including playing at Boston, Philadelphia and Toronto. Meanwhile, San Antonio and Utah are the lone West teams among the five easiest BPI remaining schedules.

Add in the Jazz's superior point differential (plus-3.2 PPG, fourth best in the West), and they should be considered narrow favorites for fourth. BPI projections show them getting home court more than 45 percent of the time, with nobody else above 30 percent, while FiveThirtyEight's projections also have Utah finishing with the fourth-most wins on average.

WHO GETS THE EIGHTH SPOT IN THE WEST?

Ordinarily, the likely Warriors opponent in the first round wouldn't draw much attention, but LeBron's team being outside of the playoff picture at the All-Star break is anything but ordinary. The Lakers are three games back of their Staples Center co-tenants, the Clippers, with 25 left to play.

It's unclear just how serious the Clippers are about making the playoffs after trading star Tobias Harris to Philadelphia just before the deadline. They keep their first-round pick if it falls in the lottery, so there's incentive for the Clippers to go south. However, after adding JaMychal Green and Garrett Temple in a deadline deal that rebuilt their depth, the Clippers still can be considered favorites to make the playoffs. They do so 60 percent of the time in FiveThirtyEight's projections, which reflect their current roster.

Besides the Clippers, the Lakers also will have to pass the Sacramento Kings, who are one game back of the Clippers and two ahead of the Lakers as they try to end a 13-year playoff drought that is the NBA's longest. Since the Kings can't keep their first-round pick no matter what, they're highly motivated to make the playoffs, and used their cap space to add Harrison Barnes for a deadline push rather than trying to replace their missing draft pick.

Nonetheless, I'm skeptical of Sacramento's playoff chances. The Kings' minus-1.2 point differential ranks 13th in the West, ahead of just Memphis and Phoenix. Worse yet, Sacramento's play has been trending downward. Since beating Dallas on Dec. 16, the Kings have a minus-2.4 differential over their past 28 games. We'll see how much Barnes helps, but this seems like a team regressing toward low preseason expectations. That explains why neither BPI nor FiveThirtyEight project Sacramento to reach .500 for the season on average.

In fact, FiveThirtyEight's projections give the Minnesota Timberwolves a better chance of making the playoffs by virtue of their superior point differential (plus-0.2 PPG) and the imminent return of backup point guard Tyus Jones to go with starter Jeff Teague, who came back just before the break.

That leaves the Lakers, who probably will need to go 15-10 or better after the break to make the playoffs. That's certainly realistic, even against the league's fourth-hardest schedule, according to BPI. The Lakers started the year 15-10, after all, and have a deeper roster now with the addition of Reggie Bullock at the trade deadline. Then there's the possibility of LeBron delivering the same kind of increased performance we've come to expect in the playoffs during a similar must-win situation. James indicated as much Thursday, when he answered a question about playoff intensity by saying, "It's been activated."

Because of that track record, I'm still hesitant to bet against the Lakers despite FiveThirtyEight -- which attempts to account for the time LeBron missed due to injury -- giving them just a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. (BPI, which makes no such adjustment, has them making the playoffs less than 6 percent of the time.) If I could take only one team to finish eighth in the West, I'd still go with the Lakers. Nonetheless, the results since James' return -- including a loss at Atlanta heading into the break -- have made it clear it's no longer unthinkable for LeBron's team to miss the playoffs.