MY 2019 RANKING OF ALL 30 MLB FARM SYSTEMS

While these rankings are ultimately subjective -- this is, after all, my opinion of each system's relative merits -- I base them on as broad a collection of information as I can. I've seen many of these prospects, I've talked to many scouts and executives about prospects, and I've talked to team officials about their own systems.

Within each system, I'll rank at least 10 prospects, but these rankings consider everything in each system. Most teams have more than 10 players within their minor leagues who project to be better than replacement-level big leaguers, and all of those guys count. Players who have lost Rookie of the Year eligibility (more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings or 45 days on the active 25-man roster) do not count toward these rankings.

I'd rather have potential stars, even if there's some risk involved, but there's also real value in being able to provide your own fifth starters or utility players without having to pay for them on the open market. That means some teams here toward the top of the list got "credit" for 20 or more players in their systems, whereas those in the bottom third top out around 15 names.

I do favor prospects with higher upsides (or "ceilings") over those with less potential to become stars but higher probability of reaching the majors in some role. Few clubs are able to afford stars on the open market, so developing your own is critical for half or even two-thirds of the franchises in baseball. And if you have a prospect who projects as a star, you have the currency to acquire almost any major leaguer you want. The teams in the top 10 have potential stars and a lot of second-tier prospects with future big league value, while the teams in the bottom 10 don't have much of either, with two clubs lacking any top-100 prospects at all.

I'm most surprised by how unbalanced the farm systems across the game are right now. The top four were easy for me to choose, and the bottom six were too, but there are gulfs between them. To some extent, this is a natural outcome of the process of building a good system, contending, and then graduating or trading off your best prospects to enhance or extend your window of success.

We're also seeing more teams concentrate wholeheartedly on their farm systems, however, to the detriment of the big league club -- it's not "tanking" the way it exists in the NBA, but it is the baseball equivalent. A strong farm system is good only to the extent that it leads to major league wins.

1. San Diego Padres
2018 rank: 3

The Padres are poised to sit at or near the top of these rankings for quite some time, even though they'll likely lose at least three top-100 prospects to graduations this year (Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Luis Urias and maybe Logan Allen), with the 2016 international class still just barely getting to full-season ball, another solid draft class last year and the sixth overall pick this year. The system remains deep in shortstops and power arms, with guys like Luis Patiño emerging from nowhere -- he's gained about 12 mph in two years -- while many of those 2016 signees haven't even begun to fill out physically. The Padres are going to start winning more games in 2019 and especially 2020, so there will soon come a point where all this prospect depth could fuel major league trades rather than boosting their farm system rankings.

2. Tampa Bay Rays
2018 rank: 7

This happened rather quickly, so much so that the Rays were even able to trade away some prospect depth (including Brock Burke) this offseason and could continue to do so as they try to compete in the AL East this year. Wander Franco went from interesting July 2 signee to No. 3 overall prospect in the game; they took the third-best player on my board (Matthew Liberatore) with the 16th overall pick last June; they traded Chris Archer and picked up a top-100 prospect in Shane Baz; and they've continued to add under-the-radar talent in smaller deals. This ranking even comes in spite of a terrible year for the Rays on the player health front, with Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon, Anthony Banda, Drew Strotman and Austin Franklin all undergoing Tommy John surgery while former first-rounder Garrett Whitley dislocated his shoulder and missed the entire season.

3. Atlanta Braves
2018 rank: 1

The pitching depth acquired under former GM John Coppolella reached the majors last year, and there's still another tier to come with the return of Patrick Weigel and slower but steady progress from their first three picks in the 2016 draft class. The system's overall depth has started to thin out with minor trades and promotions, but it should be productive for several more years, boosted this year by the compensation pick (ninth overall) the team received for failing to come to terms with its 2018 first-rounder, Carter Stewart.

4. Minnesota Twins
2018 rank: 10

A sneaky-good system, one that I think is underrated within the industry. The Twins have two elite prospects at the top (Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff) whom everybody knows, then two arms below that, one of whom (Brusdar Graterol) is well-known and one of whom (Jordan Balazovic) isn't, and beyond that they have a parade of unfamous names who project to at least some tangible big league value. Their greatest depth is in power arms -- yes, the Twins now have guys who throw hard -- and outfielders, while they're weaker on the infield and have very little catching.

5. Los Angeles Dodgers
2018 rank: 9

The Dodgers just boosted their system in the trade that sent Alex Wood, Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp's contract to the Reds, bringing back two prospects who were high draft picks in the past two years and have performed well since signing, adding to a system that saw upticks from several prospects already in-house, including Will Smith and Tony Gonsolin. They didn't sign first-rounder J.T. Ginn, but may have unearthed gems in a couple of later rounds who will make up for what they lost.

6. Cincinnati Reds
2018 rank: 6

This could change, as the Reds already have dealt two prospects from their top 10 in the big Dodgers deal and a prospect from their top 20-25 in the Sonny Gray deal, and I've heard they've made other prospects beyond their top three available, including 2018 first-rounder Jonathan India. But for now, the Reds are in good shape, thanks to years of productive drafts that have given them a strong cluster of prospects who look like they'll hit the majors in the next two years, along with long-term high-upside play Hunter Greene.

7. Los Angeles Angels
2018 rank: 19

Remember when the Angels had the worst farm system? They've come a long way in a fairly short period of time under GM Billy Eppler, and have been more productive in the draft, on the international front and in trades, landing one of their top 10 prospects in a minor deal for CJ Cron. There's depth in lesser-known names here, especially international signings from Latin America and the Bahamas, where they've been much more aggressive in the past three years.

8. Arizona Diamondbacks
2018 rank: 26

Another system that has bounced back quickly after bottoming out a few years ago, the Diamondbacks have rebuilt with two very strong drafts (despite whiffing twice on first-rounders), a couple of productive trades and the signings of the two best Bahamian prospects in baseball. The news gets even better: In this June's draft, Arizona will pick 16th, 26th, twice in the comp A round, once in the second round and twice more in the competitive balance B round, giving it seven picks in the top 80.

9. Toronto Blue Jays
2018 rank: 17

The Jays' system is topped with two elite prospects and might have a third depending on how 2019 plays out for Nate Pearson, whose 2018 was ruined by freak injuries. But after about a half-dozen names, it drops off very quickly, boosted by some college draftees who have been old for their levels. The Jays also have an intriguing group of teenage prospects who spent last year in short-season leagues, along with their 2018 first-rounder Jordan Groshans, who could help the team stay in this range on the rankings even after it loses Vlad Guerrero Jr. and possibly Bo Bichette to the majors.

10. Philadelphia Phillies
2018 rank: 5

The Phillies' system had a down year by all accounts, with many of their most vaunted players coming into 2018 struggling with performance and/or injuries, and both scouts and execs reporting back that the Phillies' biggest names had lost value in their eyes. They had two big breakouts from Spencer Howard and Luis Garcia (the shortstop), but their track record of poor results on high first-round selections -- they've hit on just one first-round pick, Aaron Nola, since taking Cole Hamels in 2002 -- has absolutely hurt their system's value as a whole.

11. Cleveland Indians
2018 rank: 16

The most underrated system in baseball? Cleveland's Arizona League team had an embarrassment of prospect riches, even after the Indians traded Jhon Torres to St. Louis in the deal for Oscar Mercado (also a solid prospect). They had five of the 20 names on my friend Bill Mitchell's list for Baseball America of the top prospects in the AZL, and a sixth, right-hander Lenny Torres, didn't play enough to qualify. And that's before I mention the two elite prospects atop the system and the couple of mid-tier position players who established greater value for themselves last year. If Cleveland does trade Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer for a huge haul, it could end up with a top-tier system, but the Indians also have the prospect capital to use to trade and get another player (an outfielder?) to help them contend again in 2019.

12. Houston Astros
2018 rank: 13

It feels like this system should be worse, given all the trades the Astros have made and their drop to drafting at the end of each round rather than the top, yet they're still here, and they even added a few prospects to their top 20 in a recent trade with the Mets for players they didn't need. The system has thinned out beyond the top 10-12 prospects compared with where it was three years ago, but the major league core is still young and the gap before the next wave of prospects arrives after Forrest Whitley and Kyle Tucker shouldn't affect the big league club too much.

13. Chicago White Sox
2018 rank: 4

Still the most top-heavy system among the top half of organizations, although a couple of years of college-oriented drafts have provided depth in players who should at least be big leaguers, albeit with limited ceilings. The emergence this year of Micker Adolfo, who had the best year of his career before the White Sox shut him down to get his elbow fixed, was the nicest surprise, but the system could still use more starters who project as more than No. 5s. I found it harder to get to 20 names I felt strongly about than I do for most systems above the median.

14. New York Mets
2018 rank: 21

The Mets would easily have had a top-10 system had they not traded away their top two prospects, Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, as well as other valuable prospects such as Luis Santana, in a bid to make the 2019 team a contender -- a bid that might very well work if their starters are healthy enough, but that could just as easily lead to a fourth-place finish. Despite the trades, it's still no worse than an average system thanks to a lot of hits on draft picks beyond the first round and some successes in the international market over the past two years.

15. Pittsburgh Pirates
2018 rank: 15

The Pirates seem to have a lot of underperformers in their system, players who would grade out well on tools but haven't converted them into production, especially when it comes to position players who show power but don't hit for power in games. That also means there's a lot of untapped potential here that could emerge in the future, or perhaps after a trade. Or maybe I'm just being obstinate about players I like.

16. Colorado Rockies
2018 rank: 11

The Rockies surprised me as I started to compare their system to others in this range to try to slot them, as I would have guessed they'd be in or closer to the top 10, but they've received virtually nothing out of Latin America in the past five years, so even some strong draft classes (notably 2018, which looks very promising right now) couldn't keep them above the median.

17. St. Louis Cardinals
2018 rank: 12

The Cardinals' system took a hit with the trade for Paul Goldschmidt and some brutal years for top prospects -- Alex Reyes got hurt yet again, first-rounder Delvin Perez looks like a nonprospect -- as well as a few graduations. But they also restocked a little with the trades of Tommy Pham and Oscar Mercado, so there's still some depth here in outfielders and back-end pitching.

18. Detroit Tigers
2018 rank: 20

Getting better but not there yet, the Tigers have been hurt a bit more than most rebuilding teams by the lack of tradable assets (speaking of contracts rather than just players) on the major league club, although Nick Castellanos and a healthy Michael Fulmer could help them make another leap. They picked first last year and landed the best player in the draft class, Casey Mize, but then chose to put most of their remaining bonus pool in two high-risk prep hitters with question marks, which could work out spectacularly but carries a high probability of zero return.

19. New York Yankees
2018 rank: 2

The Yankees' top end has thinned out significantly, but from low-A down they at least have a strong collection of guys who show enough to grab your attention -- elite speed or power, big velocity, huge spin rates -- and create some potential trade value. Other than their top prospect, Deivi Garcia, however, just about all of their starter prospects were either hurt last year or struggled to throw strikes, and three of their best position player prospects had injury troubles too.

20. Texas Rangers
2018 rank: 22

The Rangers lack much in the way of near-term help in the system, but from high-A down they had a lot of high-upside prospects who haven't quite clicked yet or who still have some remaining questions around their ultimate ceilings. They're still one of the most high school-focused teams in the draft, although their recent drafts have shifted toward picks with more polish rather than just grabbing the best athletes and hoping for the best, with Cole Ragans and Cole Winn two great, recent examples of their new philosophy.

21. Kansas City Royals
2018 rank: 27

The Royals' farm system is last year's low-A Lexington lineup plus their 2018 draft class and Khalil Lee. They won't have as many picks this June, since they had extra selections for losing free agents last year, but their draft strategy seemed like a change in direction and the early results have been very promising, including lefty Daniel Lynch, taken 34th overall but probably a top-10 pick if we redid the draft today. The flaw here is how little there is from their draft classes prior to 2017, when they bet big on some high school arms who haven't panned out at all.

22. Seattle Mariners
2018 rank: 30

They're not the worst! They're not even second-worst! The Mariners kept trading prospect after prospect until this winter's 180-degree turn that saw them ship out James Paxton, Edwin Diaz and the bad half of Robinson Cano's contract for prospects, giving them more top-100 prospects this winter than they have had in the past three winters combined.

23. Washington Nationals
2018 rank: 18

Team president/GM Mike Rizzo usually identifies two or three prospects at the top of the system he won't trade and then makes everyone else available, so their system is, once again, strong at the top and lacks much depth anywhere on the field. They have some promising Latin American prospects who just started to see full-season ball and took a few gambles in last year's draft that don't have much value right now but will have huge payoffs if they hit, especially pitchers Reid Schaller and Chandler Day.

24. Boston Red Sox
2018 rank: 24

The Red Sox's system had a brutal 2018, with Jay Groome going down with Tommy John surgery, Michael Chavis suspended 80 games for a positive drug test, Alex Scherff missing time with an oblique strain, and more injuries to top guys, while several years of drafting near the end of the first round also caught up to them. Their 2017-18 draft and international classes look strong, however, giving the system more breakout candidates than most orgs down here in the 20s have.

25. Milwaukee Brewers
2018 rank: 8

The Brewers traded away several prospects to boost the major league roster in the past 13 months and promoted several more, which got them within a game of the World Series. As much as some fans like to dismiss prospects as "just prospects" or some sort of unknown quantity, a strong farm system has real value, and the Brewers used their farm system last year in the two best ways you can. The result, of course, is a system that's as thin as it's been in several years, with a few former top prospects still here but losing value quickly due to nonperformance.

26. San Francisco Giants
2018 rank: 29

The Giants' system had been trending down for years and finally bottomed out last season, with almost every significant prospect already in the system taking a step back. There is some hope here that their big international class from 2018 can boost the system over the next few summers, and the Giants had the second overall pick last year, Joey Bart, whom they appear to have valued more highly than I did.

27. Oakland Athletics
2018 rank: 14

They might be a spot higher if I were confident Kyler Murray planned to play baseball, but he's not their No. 1 prospect anyway and for all the talk about his decision, he is a long way from the majors. Their bigger concern has to be the nonperformance of so many important position-player prospects last year -- their top two picks from 2017, the two main hitting prospects they acquired in trades that same summer -- and the injuries to nearly all of their top pitching prospects, with two of them, Daulton Jefferies and James Kaprielian, struggling to get back to full strength after Tommy John surgeries.

28. Miami Marlins
2018 rank: 28

The Marlins traded away several high-value major leaguers and got relatively little to show for it on the prospect side, so their system remains thin, exacerbated by a rash of injuries to first-round picks. They did splurge on Cuban outfielder Victor Mesa, whose ceiling is very much up for debate if you ask scouts, and their new player development and scouting staffs are going to focus more on the kinds of players and development techniques that helped the Yankees build a strong farm system over the past five years.

29. Chicago Cubs
2018 rank: 25

The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.

30. Baltimore Orioles
2018 rank: 23

The O's pick first in this year's draft and they need it, as the system has fallen apart, which is how they ended up with the worst record in baseball and in need of a change to their entire baseball ops department. The failure to sign international free agents before this year was a huge part of it, dictated by ownership, but the Orioles also have been unable to develop talented players brought into the system from the draft or trades. Their pitchers have gotten hurt or failed to develop with alarming frequency, and even performing players such as Austin Hays and Ryan McKenna were rewarded with unwarranted swing changes. The system is a mess, and it will take years to overhaul it. Fortunately the Orioles hired the right people for the job.