CONTENDERS CLASH
IN CLIMB TOWARD NO. 1
As we count down the hours until the non-waiver trade
deadline on Tuesday afternoon, we're finding out just how big a move some teams
can make in our Power Rankings. This week, the Diamondbacks made the biggest
jump, moving up five spots to return to the top 10. Will they cement that
status with a big trade while trying to keep up with the Dodgers, holding
steady at No. 5 now that they have Manny Machado in the fold? And similarly, two
teams took especially big tumbles, with the Braves falling from the top 10 with
their four-spot decline and the Giants almost leaving the top 20 as their
playoff hopes dry up.
Perhaps even larger questions loom for two teams that have
an opportunity in the week to come to break away from their closest rivals. The
Red Sox continue to get support among our voters, but even more important than
gaining another first-place vote or two to displace the Astros at No. 1, the
Red Sox have an opportunity to put the American League East race away and
separate themselves from a Yankees team already hampered by Aaron Judge's
absence. But standing in their way at the start of this week is a Phillies team
that has its own major opportunity to try to build a bigger lead in its race
to win the National League East.
With those two teams going head-to-head to open the week,
they both can't simultaneously achieve their objectives. Will one of them break
away and force the other back into a tighter race in its own division? As we
head into August's dog days and then the stretch run, every series has added
importance.
1. Houston
Astros
Record: 67-40
Week 16 ranking: 1
After seeing the Yankees acquire Zach Britton and J.A. Happ,
the Red Sox trade for Nathan
Eovaldi and the Indians get Brad Hand and Adam Cimber,
will the Astros make a major move to match? Though Houston has a great offense
and pitching staff and sits atop the AL West, the Astros might need to do
something with their tough schedule ahead. Eighteen of their next 20 games
between now and Labor Day are against teams at .500 or better.
2. Boston Red
Sox
Record: 74-33
Week 16 ranking: 2
Through the end of July last season, Chris Sale had
a 2.37 ERA and 211 strikeouts over 21 starts. He was a front-runner for the
American League Cy Young Award, but he tired down the stretch, posting a 4.64
ERA over his past 13 outings including the playoffs. Sale capped off July this
season with six scoreless innings over Minnesota, lowering his AL-best ERA to
2.04. He has thrown seven fewer innings over one more start compared to last
year, and Boston hopes its ace has a lot more left in the tank down the
stretch.
3. New York
Yankees
Record: 67-37
Week 16 ranking: 3
The Yankees took a tough blow last week as they lost Aaron Judge,
their most productive hitter with a team-best .947 OPS, for at least three
weeks with a fracture in his right wrist. Judge had rounded into form in July,
hitting .329 with a .964 OPS. New York could look internally to fill the
offensive gap, or it could turn to the trade market to rent another bat.
Whatever path New York chooses, it has a key test ahead with a three-game
series at Fenway Park this week.
4. Chicago Cubs
Record: 61-44
Week 16 ranking: 4
Jose Quintana lasted
just three innings Saturday after allowing six runs, including a grand slam, on
51 pitches in the first inning. The start continued a trend for the Cubs, who
got just 27 innings from their starters in six games between Monday and
Saturday. The acquisition of Cole Hamels
couldn't come at a better time for a team that ranks 22nd in MLB in innings per
start.
5. Los Angeles
Dodgers
Record: 59-47
Week 16 ranking: 5
The Dodgers keep marching to their own beat, using a six-man
rotation with so many of their pitchers on the mend and back in action, while
juggling four different starting second basemen, using pairings like corner
infielder Max Muncy at
the keystone when contact killer Clayton
Kershaw starts. But beyond the daily lineup mayhem, Matt Kemp is
continuing to prove his comeback is no fluke; he's having his best season at
the plate since 2012 thanks in part to an MLB-best 1.234 OPS against
fastballs.
6. Cleveland
Indians
Record: 57-47
Week 16 ranking: 6
With Lonnie
Chisenhall and now Tyler Naquin out
while Michael
Brantley has put up just a .722 OPS the past two months, the
Indians' need for help in the outfield has gotten dire at the deadline,
because Rajai Davis
in center and a Melky Cabrera/Brandon Guyer platoon
in right might only cut it if their objective is winning the AL Central instead
of challenging for a pennant. Look for the Tribe to add a rental bat between
now and Sept. 1.
7. Oakland
Athletics
Record: 61-46
Week 16 ranking: 8
The A's run of exciting comebacks and walk-off wins last
week ended abruptly when the Rockies held them to just four runs in three games
in Coors Field, a reminder that even with a bullpen reinforced by Jeurys
Familia, you can't protect leads you don't have, especially with a
rotation that's still light on steady contributors to keep the A's close in
games against opposing aces. Will they find a starting pitcher they can afford
to add at the deadline?
8. Arizona
Diamondbacks
Record: 59-48
Week 16 ranking: 13
The Snakes' offense has started to sizzle in the second
half, scoring five or more runs in nine of their first 10 games since the
break. Adding infielder Eduardo
Escobar should help them keep that up -- he's hitting line
drives at a career-best rate while joining the "launch angle
revolution" by hitting more fly balls than ever, fueling his first season
slugging above .500 and an MLB-leading 38 doubles.
9. Milwaukee
Brewers
Record: 61-47
Week 16 ranking: 10
The Brewers acquired Joakim Soria,
who posted a 2.56 ERA for the White Sox this season, including a 0.89 ERA for
them since June 1, to add to an already loaded bullpen. The Brewers' bullpen
ranks third in the NL in ERA (3.34) and leads the NL in strikeout percentage
(27 percent). But their trade for third baseman Mike
Moustakas will put pressure on their defense down the stretch,
since it forces Travis Shaw from
the hot corner to play second base for the first time in his career at any
level -- unless the Brewers are not yet done making moves.
10. Philadelphia
Phillies
Record: 58-47
Week 16 ranking: 9
The addition of Asdrubal
Cabrera helps the Phillies' infield, which has struggled
offensively. But shortstop continues to be a weakness. Phillies shortstops have
a .613 OPS, which ranks 28th in the majors. They're hitting just .228 and have
a 25 percent strikeout rate. The bullpen remains an area that can certainly be
improved as well. Their relievers' 3.91 ERA ranks 13th in the majors
11. Atlanta
Braves
Record: 55-47
Week 16 ranking: 7
Friday night's contest between the Braves and Dodgers served
as a look forward for the Braves, as staff ace Mike
Foltynewicz faced off against Clayton
Kershaw. Unfortunately for the Braves, Kershaw dominated. It's
entirely possible these teams meet in the NL wild-card game in just a couple
months, so this is a matchup we may see again.
12. Colorado
Rockies
Record: 57-47
Week 16 ranking: 12
Colorado has been the NL's best team in the past month or
so, going 19-6 since June 27. The Rockies have done it with pitching, as they
lead the majors with a 3.04 ERA in that span. Tyler
Anderson has posted a 1.02 ERA in his five starts over the past
month, and opponents are hitting just .144 against Anderson in that span,
lowest in the majors among qualified starting pitchers
13. Washington
Nationals
Record: 52-53
Week 16 ranking: 15
As the postseason becomes more of a distant goal for the
Nationals, the question arises as to whether they might sell. The Harper
discussion notwithstanding, there are plenty of other intriguing pieces on the
Nationals. Daniel Murphy has
dealt with injury issues, but he'll be a free agent after the season. So
will Ryan Madson and
recently acquired Kelvin
Herrera. Anthony Rendon has one more year of arbitration eligibility
before being a free agent for 2020, so he could be a notable name on the market
as well.
14. Seattle
Mariners
Record: 62-43
Week 16 ranking: 11
It wouldn't be a trade deadline if Jerry Dipoto didn't make
a move. So far, it has been a minor move, acquiring Sam
Tuivailala. One of the darker storylines of the Mariners' season is
the continued decline of Felix
Hernandez. His 5.58 ERA and 1.41 WHIP would be the worsts of his
career. And of course, this may be the first year that the Mariners make the
postseason in his tenure with the team.
15. Los Angeles
Angels
Record: 54-53
Week 16 ranking: 18
While it seems at times that Mike Trout can
do everything on his own, the fact is he can't. Since Shohei Ohtani returned
to the lineup on July 3, the Angels are averaging 4.7 runs per game, up from
4.0 during his month-long absence. If he qualified for the batting title,
Ohtani would be just the third player besides Mike Trout and Justin Upton with
at least an .800 OPS in the Angels' lineup. The Angels have to find a way to
get Trout some extra support in the lineup.
16. Pittsburgh
Pirates
Record: 55-52
Week 16 ranking: 17
The Pirates have stormed their way back to relevance after
it appeared their season was over in June. The Pirates won 11 straight games,
their first double-digit win streak since winning 10 straight in June-July of
2004. Outfielders Starling
Marte (1.055 OPS) and Gregory Polanco (.948)
have been swinging especially hot bats in July, as well as Josh Bell before
his landing on the DL over the weekend.
17. St. Louis
Cardinals
Record: 53-52
Week 16 ranking: 14
Matt
Carpenter continues to tear it up in the second half. He has a
1.303 OPS since the All-Star break, which is seventh highest in the majors and
third highest in the National League. All this for a player who was hitting
.155 with a .579 OPS at the end of April. He now sits at .272 and .948 on the
year.
18. Tampa Bay
Rays
Record: 53-53
Week 16 ranking: 19
This season, the Rays have started a pitcher who has thrown
fewer than four innings 43 times. The next closest team in baseball in that
regards is the Padres with 18. Tampa Bay's strategy of going with a bullpen
starter every fifth day quickly expanded due to necessity, as injury and
availability hampered the team. Last week's trade of Nathan
Eovaldi to Boston means the bullpen will continue to shoulder
the load multiple times through the rotation.
19. Minnesota
Twins
Record: 48-56
Week 16 ranking: 20
Minnesota made the first of what could be many moves at this
year's deadline, shipping reliever Ryan Pressly to
the Astros and infielder Eduardo Escobar to
the D-backs. Perhaps even more importantly, the team recalled third
baseman Miguel Sano after
a long stint in the minors. If the Twins want to contend anytime soon, Sano
will need to get back to his old slugging ways.
20. San Francisco
Giants
Record: 53-54
Week 16 ranking: 16
It's worth evaluating what the Giants could do at the
deadline if they decided to become sellers. Aging outfielders Hunter Pence and Andrew
McCutchen are both in the final years of their deals. Joe Panik is
controllable through 2020, so they'd likely require a decent amount back for
him, but he could be a helpful piece for a team looking to shore up its
infield. And of course, there's the Madison
Bumgarner question. He has a club option for next season and is
not under contract beyond that. There aren't a lot of pitchers with a career
3.01 ERA on the market.
21. Cincinnati
Reds
Record: 48-58
Week 16 ranking: 22
Eugenio
Suarez had a huge week, including tying the Reds' franchise
record with a home run in five straight games. Suarez is making a name for
himself as an elite offensive third baseman. The only third basemen who have a
higher OPS than he does this season are Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado,
who are MVP candidates in their respective leagues.
22. Toronto Blue
Jays
Record: 48-56
Week 16 ranking: 21
Since July 1, Toronto's .409 winning percentage ranks 22nd
in baseball, consistent with where they're ranked. One person who has done his
best to push the team to wins is Lourdes
Gurriel Jr. His .423 batting average in July is the best in
baseball. He has turned a corner since his first few months of the season, when
he hit .222 over 21 games. He has had some exceptional success against
fastballs this month, hitting .556 with a 1.523 OPS in plate appearances to end
in the pitch.
23. Detroit
Tigers
Record: 45-62
Week 16 ranking: 24
While the Tigers determine which players to trade before
Tuesday's deadline and look ahead to the future, they can look at one bright
spot with the pro debut of No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize. Pitching for the
Tigers' Gulf Coast League affiliate on Thursday, Mize threw two scoreless
innings and recorded four strikeouts. His next outing will be in A-ball with
Lakeland on Tuesday.
24. Texas Rangers
Record: 45-62
Week 16 ranking: 23
The Rangers already have been active at the deadline,
sending Cole Hamels to
the Cubs. Adrian Beltre's
name has been tossed around a fair amount, and he is in a contract year. If
they wanted to get in on the bullpen market as sellers, Keone Kela could
be an attractive addition for contenders if the Rangers wanted to go that
route.
25. New York Mets
Record: 44-59
Week 16 ranking: 25
The Mets continue to be sellers, trading Asdrubal
Cabrera to the Phillies for a prospect. It was amusing that of
all teams to land with, Cabrera ended up with the Phillies, given that a home
run he hit off Philadelphia may go down as his most memorable moment with the
Mets. On Sept. 22, 2016, he hit a walk-off three-run homer in the bottom of the
11th off Edubray Ramos,
as the Mets worked toward earning the first wild card that year. The question
remains if Noah
Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom will
now also be on the move; Zack Wheeler's
name has been floated a lot lately.
26. San Diego
Padres
Record: 42-66
Week 16 ranking: 27
Though the Padres have sold off some assets, two of their
core players who are not going anywhere have had very different
months. Myers has hit well since coming off the DL in June, and since the
calendar turned to July he ranks in the top 10 in the NL in both slugging and
OPS. Eric Hosmer,
on the other hand, is hitting .168 this month, fourth-worst in the majors among
186 qualified hitters; his .423 OPS ranks dead last.
27. Miami Marlins
Record: 46-61
Week 16 ranking: 26
Rookie Trevor
Richards rattled off his third straight quality start for the
Marlins, lowering his ERA more than a full run, down to 4.06. Perhaps even more
notable, he notched five swinging strikeouts -- all with his changeup -- in
each of the past two turns. Not too shabby for an undrafted free agent who
spent parts of two seasons in the independent leagues before signing with the
Marlins organization in July 2016.
28. Chicago White
Sox
Record: 37-68
Week 16 ranking: 28
Just five seasons into his major league career, Jose Abreu has
made his mark on White Sox history. He's tied for 10th in franchise history in
home runs (with Ron Kittle), and he ranks 10th in career OPS among players
who've played more than one season with the team (putting him between Magglio
Ordonez and Jermaine Dye). If he's the last big piece moved for the franchise's
rebuild, he's also the latest Cuban great to have had a remarkable run on
Chicago's South Side.
29. Kansas City
Royals
Record: 32-73
Week 16 ranking: 29
Trading Mike
Moustakas to Milwaukee ends his long reign at the hot corner in
Kansas City, marking another move away from the Royals' World Series-winning
lineup of 2015. Since making his debut on June 10, 2011, Moustakas played 885
games at third base, which ranks third all-time in Royals history, behind Hall
of Famer George Brett (1692) and Joe Randa (940).
30. Baltimore
Orioles
Record: 32-74
Week 16 ranking: 30
After dealing away Zach Britton and Manny Machado,
the Orioles are in full rebuild mode. One player who has significantly improved
over the past few weeks is Jonathan
Schoop. Through his first 55 games, Schoop struggled to a .208
average, but he has hit .309 since, including 10 of his 17 home runs on the
season. The Orioles will need his bat if they want to finish with a win
percentage over .300. -- McCarthy
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