THE NUMBERS SAY PREPARE
FOR A 2017 REPEAT
This year’s October brackets are very different. On the AL
side: the 108-win Boston Red Sox, the 103-win defending champion Houston
Astros, 197 more wins worth of wild-card entries, and a sneaky Cleveland
Indians team a year removed from 101 wins.
Meanwhile, the NL story is one of parity, as evidenced by
the need for two Game 163s to settle seedings. Even after the extra games, the
five NL entries are bunched between 90 and 96 wins.
HOW WILL THE MONTH PLAY OUT? HERE IS MY TAKE:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Colorado enters the wildcard game with the Coors Field
question. Despite finishing third in runs, the Rockies offense was just 21st in
scoring on the road — and will be lacking home-field advantage in every round.
No surprise: the Rockies own the worst ERA among NL postseason clubs.
A solid Chicago Cubs pitching staff is neutralized a tad by
an offense that has been nothing special, particularly since the All-Star break
(771 OPS in first half, 709 in second half). Despite the late-August Daniel
Murphy acquisition, Chicago hitters have slid dramatically in most offensive
categories, including strikeouts, walks, batting average, homers and slugging.
The wild-card winner will face the Milwaukee Brewers, who
roared down the stretch, winning nine of their last 10. They’ve hit the
fourth-most homers in the majors, headlined by peaking MVP candidate Christian
Yelich.
The Brewers’ soft spot is a pedestrian five-inning-a-night
rotation, but a lethal bullpen keeps them dangerous. Josh Hader (15.9 K/9, 2.50
ERA), Jeremy Jeffress (1.29 ERA) and a resurgent Corey Knebel (no runs, 32/3
K/BB over his last 15 innings) can eat four innings in any close contest.
Milwaukee should advance against either the Cubs or Rockies.
The Atlanta Braves rode youth, a fast start and weak
competition to their NL East title. They struck out fewer times than any of
their NL postseason competitors, finishing seventh in overall contact and fifth
in batting average. But they also finished 19th in both walks and homers,
suggesting that they’ll need good luck on balls in play to keep up with the NL
West champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Braves rotation outpitched its peripheral numbers all
season, feasting on three bottom- 10 offenses in the NL East. Atlanta lost five
of seven to L.A. during the regular season and will suffer a similar fate
without a home-field advantage.
The July acquisition of Manny Machado paid big dividends
down the stretch for the Dodgers, who led the majors in scoring in September.
They ranked second overall in home runs and first in walks.
Just as important, their pitchers topped the NL in
strikeouts and limiting walks, thanks to a rotation that finished with the
NL’s best ERA.
Clayton Kershaw, fast-rising Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu
and Rich Hill match up very well with their postseason competition on paper.
Though a volatile bullpen suggests the Dodgers may need to lean more heavily on
their starters in October, they should have enough to get past the Braves and
then the Brewers in the NLCS. Barely.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The Astros’ title defense starts on the mound.
Aces Justin Verlander (2.52 ERA, 12.2 K/9) and Gerrit Cole (2.88
ERA, 12.4 K/9) form the best 1-2 punch in the AL. Houston
aggressively retooled its bullpen in-season, adding
closer Roberto Osuna (1.99 ERA with Houston) and Ryan Pressly
(0.77 ERA with Houston) to an already deep group. As their league
leading 3.11 team ERA (half a run better than the next team) shows, the
Astros’ run prevention is elite.
Offensively, Alex Bregman (31 HRs, .926 OPS) has graduated
from supporting actor to stardom. He augments the returning heart of 2017’s
championship core — George Springer, Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve — all of
whom spent time on the disabled list in the second half but are now healthy.
Houston will face the Indians, who feature their own pair of
aces in Corey Kluber (2.89 ERA, 9.3 K/9) and Carlos Carrasco (3.38 ERA, 10.8
K/9). The key for them is the next man up, whom they hope will be Trevor Bauer
(2.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9), as he is just returning from a late-season leg injury.
The Indians bullpen is headlined by the three-headed
monster: midseason acquisition Brad Hand (32 saves, 2.89 ERA, 13.3 K/9), last
year’s closer Cody Allen (27 saves, 4.70 ERA, 10.7 k/9), and dinged-up super
weapon Andrew Miller (only 34 innings, 4.24 ERA, 11.9 K/9), all of whom figure
to be deployed aggressively by manager Terry Francona.
The Indians lineup finished third in the AL in runs scored,
keyed by the dynamic infield duo of Francisco Lindor (.277, 38 HRs, 129 runs,
25 SB) and Jose Ramirez (.272, 39 HRs, 106 RBI, 34 SB). But late-August pickup
Josh Donaldson is a potential game-changer. He spent September shaking off a
summer’s worth of rust, and it seemed to work: his 1.00 Eye ratio (10 walks/10
strikeouts) with the Indians suggest he’s ready for October.
Cleveland is formidable, but I’ll favor the Astros in this
ALDS matchup.
The wild-card showdown between the Oakland Athletics
and New York Yankees features two teams with similar profiles: relatively thin
starting rotations, backed by deep and versatile bullpens, and the two top
homer-producing offenses in the circuit.
Awaiting the wild-card survivor will be a stacked Red Sox
team that has a surprising number of questions entering October.
Chief among them is the status of ace starter Chris Sale
(2.11 ERA, 13.5 K/9), who threw only 42 second-half innings, in between two DL
stints for shoulder inflammation. Behind him, David Price (3.58 ERA, 9.1 K/9)
had a strong rebound year but was repeatedly shelled by the Yankees (10.34 ERA
in 16 IP).
Rookie manager Alex Cora spent September holding open
auditions for bullpen slots in front of closer Craig Kimbrel (42 saves, 2.74
ERA, 13.9 K/9), without finding clear answers.
Previously unknown Ryan Brasier (1.60 ERA, 7.8 K/9 in just
34 IP) seemed to step into the eighth-inning role as Matt Barnes (3.65 ERA,
14.0 K/9) missed much of September to injury.
What the Astros are to run prevention, the Red Sox are to
run scoring. Boston’s 876 runs scored were 50 more than any team except the
Yankees. With their Fenway Park home-field advantage locked in, they have the
potential to simply slug their way through any series — even if Sale isn’t at
his best, or the bad version of Price shows up, or the setup relief crumbles in
front of Kimbrel.
In a titanic ALCS matchup between the Red Sox and Astros, I
favor Houston’s elite run prevention, plenty of offensive firepower in their
own right, and fewer question marks overall. Look for the Astros to make a
return trip to the World Series ... and once again edge out the Dodgers in a
seven game rematch.
No comments:
Post a Comment