STANLEY CUP OR BUST
And so it begins. The Pittsburgh Penguins quest to win
their fourth Stanley Cup since 2009, third in four years and achieve dynastic
status begins Thursday against their most immediate obstacle, the defending
Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals. The 2018-19 Penguins are the best
team in the Eastern Conference and the most battle-tested in the NHL, but they
will be the best team for only one more year.
Derick Brassard, the most talented third-line center in
the NHL, and 30-point fourth-liner Matt Cullen who provide the Penguins with
nearly unparalled depth are signed for this season, only. For this Penguins
team, it is Stanley Cup or bust.
Write it down. Speed, extraordinary skill, newfound depth,
and physicality will make the Penguins the 2019 Stanley Cup champions. They
will win the Metro Division with 106 points and score 290 goals.
After a season filled with excuses and malaise, the
Penguins organization moved swiftly and effectively this offseason. The
Penguins added the locker-room leader Cullen and retained Riley Sheahan while
creating a third line which includes speedy, gritty wingers Bryan Rust and
Dominik Simon beside Brassard. The Penguins were perilously thin a season ago.
Now, they boast one of the most skilled and dangerous bottom-six forward crews
in the league.
Brassard and Cullen especially appear to have recaptured
their difference-maker form. Cullen looked even faster in training camp than he
did in his previous stint with the Penguins and his enthusiasm to return to his
hockey home has been evident. Brassard has been dynamic. His creativity and
skating ability were evident in the preseason. He looked like the 60-point
pivot he was with the New York Rangers in 2015 before being swallowed whole by
the Ottawa darkness and an unspecified injury last season.
However, the Penguins will have Brassard for only this
season as he will be a highly sought free agent worth big money next summer.
And Cullen has heavily considered retirement after each of the past three
seasons. Presuming the Penguins can find enough ice time for Brassard, he told
coaches after last season he had trouble adjusting to the reduced role, he
should produce offense on par with most second lines across the NHL.
ECONOMIC PRODUCTION
With a little help from his friends Rust and Simon,
Brassard is more than capable of 50 points. And beneath the waves of the
Penguins top-nine attack, Cullen could post 12 goals and 30 points, again.
Both are stark improvements from the Penguins stale
lineup last season which scored at historically low levels at 5v5 until the
coaches waved the white flag on a four-line approach and began double shifting
Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in place of third and fourth line centers Riley
Sheahan and Carter Rowney.
The Penguins should also experience an uptick on top-line
offense, too. Jake Guentzel had a bad case of the sophomore slump. Last season,
he rallied to score 48 points (22g, 26a) with nearly half of those points (22)
coming in February and March. He and Crosby torched the playoffs with 20 and 21
points. There is reason to believe Guentzel can maintain his elevated play,
especially beside Crosby.
GUENTZEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLEAR 60 POINTS
WITH EASE.
Hornqvist on the top line, second line with Malkin or
even on the third line with Brassard is an automatic 20 goals. He’s not failed
to reach that plateau in four seasons with the Penguins, and only injury can
derail him this season.
Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel, however, are the only
question mark. Like best friends sitting in the back of science class who get
carried away, the question remains if the pair can successfully play together.
Will they maximize their talents or will the temptation to make one more pass
or to forget defense be too great? Malkin admitted head coach Mike Sullivan,
“wasn’t happy” with them, last season.
Look for the coaches to first offer a warning then
quickly break them up if they don’t produce. The only prediction for that line
is they will get the warning before U.S. Thanksgiving. Fortunately for the
Penguins, their forward depth affords them several options beside Malkin and
Crosby. So, if one of them is forced to sit in the front row, the Penguins will
quickly adjust.
THE BLUE LINE
Kris Letang, 31, is healthy and eager to outrun the dark
clouds which followed him last season. Last season, Letang never got on a roll.
He zigged when he should have zagged, and the lamps lit against him more than
for him. He was frustrated. The coaches exercised patience even as they grimaced,
too.
Don’t look for Letang to recapture his dynamic Norris
Trophy-caliber form of 2016. Part of the adjustment last season was learning to
keep himself away from harm. He still dished 109 hits last season which is a
testament to his ability to cover all 200 feet of the ice surface, but the
number also reflects the high amount of turnovers and being his own zone.
The most significant number for Letang will not be 5v5
points or even power play assists. The biggest indicator of his success will be
the plus/minus statistic. 5v5 play is more indicative of the overall game than
point totals. Since the Penguins will have a significant puck possession
advantage, and Letang is one of the dominant players, there isn’t a good reason
to be on the ice for more goals against than scored.
Letang will have some fun early in the season as he
spreads his wings again. He will be a fantasy hockey star. He will score 60
points and show enough improved defensive play to allow all but the most
hardened doubters happy. However, if Letang again fights the puck and the game,
all bets are off as to what happens next.
Justin Schultz has become a complete defenseman capable
of handling his own zone, leading the rush and getting a heavy shot from the
point on net. His decline from 51 points in 2016-17 to 27 points last season
may have frustrated him, but part of that equation includes less shelter from
defensive situations. He and 6-foot-7 blue line thumper Jamie Oleksiak are
paired to start the season. The pair showed good chemistry last season which
should allow Schultz to take a few more chances.
Schultz is a solid candidate for 35 points, maybe 40. His
51 point season included an incredible hot streak in November and December. It
was probably an outlier.
Jack Johnson, 31, inked a five-year deal at a discounted
rate ($3.25 million AAV). He had only 11 points (3g, 8a) in a disappointing
effort with Columbus last season. Piecing together hints from Columbus Blue
Jackets coach John Tortorella and news reports of Johnson’s family caused
financial troubles; it seems the issues got the better of Johnson. I will
attest from first-hand interactions, Johnson is immensely enjoying a fresh
start and the ability to play with old friend Sidney Crosby.
He probably won’t score 30 points but he will eat big
minutes which will allow Letang to play less but more meaningful minutes. Call
both of those situations a win. Johnson’s season Corsi rating and hit total
will be the barometers by which his season is measured. If he can produce
positive possession or close to it, and contribute jam from the blueline, the
Penguins coaches will be smiling like a butcher’s dog.
MURRAY, MURRAY, MURRAY
Most assume Penguins goalie Matt Murray will rebound and
get back to a .920 save percentage. The Penguins vastly improved defense will
aid in that pursuit. However, Murray would not be the first goalie to have a
great start to his career but fade as shooters adjusted. It is not a given that
Murray will again be a big-time goalie.
And the Penguins don’t have a ready backup plan. Tristan
Jarry needs more polish before he is prepared for a starter’s net on a regular
basis. If there is one phase of the game which could undo the Penguins
potential dominance, it is goaltending.
IT IS MURRAY OR BUST FOR THE PENGUINS.
The truth probably lies somewhere between his bedrock
.907 save percentage last season and his .923 mark in 2017. Above .918 and
Murray is a winner. Under that mark and the Penguins may be eyeing a seasoned
backup with playoff experience in February.
WE WANT THE CUP
Like the Tampa Bay Lightning a season ago who returned
from a disappointing season to dominate the NHL, the look for the Penguins
eagerness to return to June hockey to be present in October. Unlike last
season, the Penguins do not appear to be sleepwalking into the season like a
college student after an all-nighter.
Because the Penguins will lose Brassard and (maybe,
probably, possibly, potentially) Cullen, this is their moment. They will not
have a better chance to win the Stanley Cup again. Rested and ready. Angry and
aggressive. The Penguins are the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.
For the record, with great reservations of
overestimation, I predicted the Penguins would get bounced in the Eastern
Conference Final after squeaking past the Capitals. Oops. But I wasn’t that far
off.
And barring injury, we won’t be far off this season. It’s
the Penguins Cup to win or lose, though maybe an old Flower will weed them out.
I will look at the Penguins opponents and more individual predictions next.
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