HANDING OUT 2018 NFL FIRST-QUARTER AWARDS
I catch you up on everything you need to know as we turn
from Week 4 to Week 5.
Offense sells. The first quarter of the 2018 season has been
defined by galactic passing numbers, exploding scoreboards and precarious
leads. No one complained Thursday
night in Los Angeles when Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins matched
each other dime for dime. No one complained Sunday when quarterback showdowns
like Wentz vs.
Mariota, Carr vs.
Mayfield, Ryan vs.
Dalton and Watson vs.
Luck all ended in fireworks.
No one complained Monday night as the early MVP candidate Patrick
Mahomes tested the limits (again) of what a quarterback can
accomplish outside the pocket.
The Chiefs and Rams bookending
Week 4 with prime-time thrillers was fitting because they are the league's
standard bearers this season. They are the last two undefeated teams and are
leading the way in an NFL where offensive creativity is contagious. NFL
Research confirmed that passing records have been set through four weeks in
completions, completion percentage, passing touchdowns and passing yards.
Scoring has never been higher through four weeks. Passer rating is at 94.7,
more than three points higher than the previous record, which was set in 2013.
Joe Montana once owned the highest passer rating of all time; now his career
mark (92.3) would be lower than the league average.
It's uncomfortable to watch offense win all the
time. But there is also something intoxicating about watching so many of the
schematic innovations arriving from the college game, scrambling the collective
brains of NFL defensive coordinators. Six years after read-option plays during
the rookie seasons of Robert
Griffin III, Russell
Wilson and Ryan
Tannehill were viewed as a passing fad, teams like
the Chiefs and Bears are
making far more heretical spread concepts staples of their offense. Hiring an
Andy Reid disciple (or someone who worked for one) is the quickest route to
upping your team's entertainment value, as fans of the Eagles, Bears and Colts now
know.
Chase Stuart of Football Perspective made a compelling case that Week 2 was the top passing week
statistically in NFL history, and Week 4 has
passed it. The average Week 4 quarterback topped
300 yards in his game, and many teams, like the Bears, Vikings and Colts,
scored by the truckload without much help from the running game.
So many long-held precepts of "winning football"
are being questioned in this pass-happy era, and the teams that fail to
innovate with the times are being left behind.
The explosion in passing production would win my award as
the most delightful trend of 2018. With that in mind, let's hand out some other
awards at the quarter mark of the season.
MOST WATCHABLE
TEAM: CLEVELAND
BROWNS.
The Cleveland
Browns are a handful of plays away from being 4-0. Or 0-4. Or
1-1-2. You get the idea.
After a quarter of the season that didn't settle much of
anything, the endlessly fascinating Browns are
the perfect avatar for a league with little separation in the standings or on
the scoreboard. Cleveland's
45-42 loss in Oakland on Sunday had all the earmarks of a
typical 2018 banger: crooked passing numbers where all roads lead to overtime.
There's no telling where the Browns go
from here, but they are utterly incapable of playing a boring game. That's
progress. The Chiefs, Rams, Colts, Bears, Titans, Saints and Falcons all
deserve honorable mention for consistently spicing up Sundays, a long list
of watchability all-stars that speaks to how engrossing the
first quarter of the season has been overall.
THE LEAST
WATCHABLE TEAM: BUFFALO BILLS.
While the winless Cardinals got
some consideration for this award, at least they've played nail-biters in
back-to-back weeks. The average margin of victory in Buffalo's games this year
is 24.5. The second half in all of four of their games has amounted to extended
garbage time, even during the team's shocking
trouncing of the Vikings in Week 3.
BEST NON-QB MVP
CANDIDATE: ALVIN KAMARA.
Alvin Kamara is
an alien. He proved over the last four weeks that he doesn't really need a
tag-team partner at running back like Mark Ingram,
because there's no one else who can do what Kamara does. (Not that the Saints won't
love to have Ingram back from suspension this week.)
Kamara leads the NFL with 611 yards from scrimmage, somehow
ranking third in receptions and seventh in rushing yards. He can line up wide
as a wide receiver and destroy a linebacker in coverage, and he can run over a
defensive tackle near the goal line when he needs to. As dynamic as Todd Gurley is
or as much potential as Saquon
Barkley has, there isn't a running back in football I'd take
over Kamara. Although, as non-QB MVP candidates go, Chicago has one, too, which
brings me to my next category...
BEST LAST-MINUTE
ADDITION: KHALIL MACK.
It's not too early to say Bears general
manager Ryan Pace hit home runs with his two biggest acquisitions this
offseason. First-year coach Matt Nagy has modernized the Bears'
offense enough to make George Halas' tombstone blush. And the aggressive price
to acquire
former Raiders pass rusher Khalil Mack on Sept. 2 looks like a
bargain in retrospect. Mack is the first player since Robert Mathis in 2005 to
have a sack and a forced fumble in four straight games. Mack provides stout run
support, and his 17 hurries lead the NFL, an example of how his relentless
effort doesn't always show up in the stat sheet.
On Sunday, Mack helped extinguish Fitzmagic with a forced
fumble, and he later caused Winston to throw an interception by hitting his
arm as the Bucs quarterback threw. Mack is able to shine in part
because he has so much help around him, with defensive tackle Akiem Hicks and
safety Jackson playing at a Pro Bowl level.
The Bears learned
what it was like to play with a lead on Sunday after Nagy's creative attack
helped Mitchell
Trubisky locate wide-open receivers on the way to six touchdown
passes against Tampa.
In a league dominated by offense, the 3-1 Bears possess
one of the only difference-making defenses. Pace's one-year makeover with his
hand-picked coach looks more and more like the job Rams GM
Les Snead did last season.
BEST STORY THAT'S
ALREADY OVER: FITZMAGIC.
This edition of Fitzmagic was too beautiful to last. The
Bucs had four first downs in six first-half drives on Sunday, ending with Ryan
Fitzpatrick's fifth interception of the season. Coach Dirk Koetter
had seen enough, wanting to get Jameis
Winston some game snaps as the team headed into a Week 5 bye.
This came a week after the Bears drove Sam Bradford to
the bench by picking him off twice and recovering one of his two fumbles in
what could be an ignominious end to the former No. 1 overall pick's career as a
QB1.
Fitzpatrick may get another chance eventually, but Koetter
said Monday that Winston will be the starter for the Week 6
showdown with the Falcons following
the bye.
Koetter was elevated to the head-coaching job in Tampa to
develop Winston. Koetter knows he's running out of time, and it doesn't make a
difference who is at quarterback if defensive coordinator Mike Smith's group
plays at this level. The Bucs sat Brent Grimes in
the second half of the game, a reminder that there are plenty of fine names on
the unit: Jason
Pierre-Paul, Gerald McCoy, Vinny Curry, Lavonte David
and Kwon
Alexander among them. It doesn't compute that Tampa's defense
is this woeful, even with such a young secondary.
There is enough talent here, especially on offense, for the
2-2 Bucs to rally. Assuming that this team is done would be just as foolish as
assuming they were going to stay atop the league when they were 2-0. Winston
needs to cut down on his mistakes and play less like a rich man's Fitzpatrick,
or the rest of the season could be similarly messy.
BEST JOB BY A
COACHING STAFF: TENNESSEE
TITANS.
Mike Vrabel's group has managed to
win a game started by Blaine
Gabbert with a heavy dosage of Derrick Henry running
the wildcat and a cornerback named Dane Cruikshank finishing
as their leading receiver. They won a game in
Jacksonville without scoring a touchdown and beat the
defending Super Bowl champions on Sunday after trailing 17-3
midway through the third quarter.
Sunday's victory should convince the rest of the AFC of
Tennessee's upside. Finally healthy and looking comfortable in new coordinator
Matt LaFleur's system, Marcus
Mariota recorded the second-highest graded game of his career on
Sunday, according to Pro Football Focus, an assessment that sounds about right.
On a day that saw Dion Lewis and
Henry combine for 24 rushing yards, the Titans attacked
Philadelphia's sneaky bad secondary all afternoon. Mariota threw for 344 yards
despite at least four dropped passes. Mariota also led the team with 46 yards
rushing, including a 17-yard run that set up the game's
decisive moment in overtime.
Mariota was allowed to be the hero on Sunday because his
coaching staff trusted him. Vrabel passed on a potential 49-yard field goal to
tie the game in overtime in favor of going for it on fourth-and-2. Mariota
rewarded that trust. It was the third fourth down Mariota picked up that drive,
including a bullet on fourth-and-15 to Taywan Taylor.
Veteran Rishard
Matthews begging off the team
last week could prove to be a blessing in disguise. Corey Davis looked
every bit like a true No. 1 receiver on the way to 161 yards and the leaping,
game-winning touchdown. Taylor needs to be a big part of the weekly
game plan, too. The Titans'
defense is undeniably playing tougher under Vrabel, led by stalwart defensive
tackle Jurrell Casey.
If Mariota can play anywhere close to this level moving forward, Tennessee is
ready to become an AFC contender. Speaking of which...
THE BEST TEAM IN
THE AFC AWARD: BALTIMORE
RAVENS.
Style points are silly to argue about at this time of
season. A case could be made for the Chiefs, Jaguars, Titans or
even the Bengals as
the AFC's best thus far, but the Ravens are
the most complete team. The defense is greater than the sum of its parts, with
second-year cornerback Marlon
Humphrey making the leap backed by a terrific safety tandem
in Eric Weddle and Tony
Jefferson. They may be the toughest team
to pass on in football, and that was before cornerback Jimmy Smith returns
from suspension this week.
The offense is versatile, with Joe Flacco playing
better than he has in at least four years. The expected return of first-round
tight end Hayden Hurst next
week adds to the number of weapons Flacco can dial up on any given play.
The Saints could
really use slot receiver Willie Snead.
The Cardinals could
really use deep threat John Brown.
The Raiders could
use Michael
Crabtree. It appears that outgoing general manager Ozzie Newsome
finally found the right mix of pass catchers, just in time to ensure that Coach
John Harbaugh gets off the hot seat.
WORST LUCK: ATLANTA
FALCONS.
Not only have the Falcons lost
linebacker Deion Jones and
safeties Neal and Ricardo Allen to
injured reserve, they have lost three games in the most excruciating fashion
possible. The Week 1 loss
in Philadelphia was a sequel to the horror movie that ended last
season. Back-to-back last-second losses at home to the Saints and Bengals revealed
that coach Dan Quinn has no answers presently on defense.
Since 1940, teams scoring 36-plus points at home with no
turnovers were 402-2 before the last two weeks. After the Falcons'
misadventures in Weeks 3 and 4, those teams are 402-4.
WORST TREND:
SETTING UP FOR LONG FIELD GOALS.
In his final two drives of Sunday's loss
to the Seahawks, Cardinals rookie
quarterback Rosen completed seven of nine passes for 122 yards and his
first NFL touchdown. Those totals included three certified dimes, a stretch
that assuredly had Cardinals fans
dreaming off a last-second win and plenty of fun years ahead. However, after
putting his team in position at the Seahawks'
33-yard line with 3:45 left in the fourth quarter on Sunday, Rosen's coaching
staff stopped trying to win. Cardinals coach
Steve Wilks called for three straight runs up the middle, and Phil Dawson pushed
a 45-yard field-goal try to the right, just like he pushed a 50-yard attempt to
the right to close out the first half.
Wilks took the air out of the ball and the stadium. He
trusted a 43-year-old kicker instead of his new franchise quarterback, who was
doing everything possible to have his new-franchise-quarterback moment. By
playing so conservatively, Wilks allowed plenty of time for the Seahawks to
drive for a game-winning field goal of their own.
The Seahawks similarly
went out of their way to make it harder on their kicker, running only two plays
for 6 yards in the final minute before lining up for Sebastian
Janikowski's 52-yarder. Seabass bailed head coach Pete Carroll out
by making the kick, but that doesn't mean the strategy makes any more sense.
Setting up for long field goals when there is plenty of time to get closer or
(gasp) try to score a touchdown has been a curious strategy since Carroll's
coordinator Brian Schottenheimer's father Marty was coaching in the league. It
makes less sense now than ever, when the array of "safe" passing
plays available to a coach are vast. The teams that continue to run three times
up the middle instead of trusting their quarterbacks are playing a style of
football stuck in the past, one that could eventually drive its practitioners
to extinction.
PANICKING FAN BASE
THAT SHOULD RELAX: PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES.
No team is running away and hiding in the NFC East, so
the Eagles'
2-2 record isn't such a setback. More importantly, there are a lot of
indicators trending up. Carson Wentz looked
even more like himself in his second game back, and Alshon
Jeffery immediately changed the dynamic of the team's offense
on Sunday in his return from offseason shoulder surgery. The eventual returns
of Darren
Sproles (hamstring) and Corey Clement (quad)
will add versatility to the team's backfield. Jordan
Matthews could wind up being a key role player for the team
again. While the secondary is a concern, Fletcher Cox is
playing at a Defensive Player of the Year level on a defensive line that still
ranks among the league's best. Despite the two losses and sputtering start on
offense, I don't feel any differently about this team's long-term potential.
PANICKING FAN BASE
THAT SHOULD BE PANICKING: PITTSBURGH
STEELERS.
Something just isn't right. The defense is consistently
sloppy and can't rush the passer. Ben
Roethlisberger said after Sunday
night's loss that he's "not on the
same page with anybody" after the team ran 23 plays for 47
yards in the second half against Baltimore. Antonio Brown is
not making big plays and is becoming increasingly agitated. Next weekend's
matchup between the 1-2-1 Steelers and
the 1-3 Falcons has
to be the most compelling and meaningful October game between one-win teams in
a long time.
BEST REVIVAL ACT
THAT DESERVES MORE ATTENTION: MARSHAWN
LYNCH.
Lynch is on pace for 1,200 rushing yards after his 130-yard
breakout game against the Browns on
Sunday, but numbers don't tell the story of how hard Lynch has run every time
he's touched the ball this season. Lynch is a throwback, a bucking bronco who
improbably looks as good as he did in 2014. There's something so right about
watching Lynch run wild in a Raiders uniform
on the infield dirt in Oakland, a viewing pleasure that should not be taken for
granted.
MOST UNDERRATED
2017 RULE CHANGE: SHORTENING OVERTIME.
Shortening overtime from 15 minutes to 10 prior to last
season was an under-the-radar rule change that continues to provide major
benefits. For one, the Colts'
defense simply didn't need to be on the field for more than 90 snaps on Sunday.
That game needed an ending.
More importantly, the abbreviated period has led to a lot of
fascinating strategic decisions concerning clock management, fourth-down
attempts and the moral complications of playing for a tie. Making
overtime any shorter would be unfair to the team that loses the coin toss, but
having 15 minutes encouraged conservative groupthink and exposed players to
more hits. Ten minutes is just right -- and the new rule has been getting a
workout, with six overtime games in four weeks.
BEST WORST NFL
PROBLEM: ROUGHING-THE-PASSER PENALTY CONTROVERSY.
If the outcry regarding the uptick in roughing-the-passer
penalties is the worst issue the NFL had to deal with in September, well, that
doesn't sound so bad. After a tumultuous decade where one league controversy
has often replaced another, the hand-wringing about making the game too
safe feels manageable. The league certainly wants to officiate the
roughing-the-passer penalties more clearly, and the lack of such controversial
calls in Week 4 was probably not an accident. (NFL.com reporter Judy
Battista notes there were only five roughing calls this week
entering Monday night's game, less than half of the average in Weeks 1-3.)
But it's worth considering all the stories that aren't being
told. All's quiet on the catch-rule front. Ratings are holding steady in a
climate where that is increasingly rare. "Thursday Night Football"
has produced some of the best moments of the season. Football in Los Angeles is
beginning to take hold, at least for the Rams.
And after the NFL pressed pause on a potential National Anthem policy, there
has been greater focus on all the work players are doing in their communities.
This is not to suggest that the NFL doesn't face enormous
challenges, including the inevitable ones that are unforeseen. But the focus
over the first quarter of the season has largely been on the product on the
field, and the product has been compelling. Anyone denying that can't see nor
has an agenda.
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