We’re slowly beginning to whittle
down the list of NFL playoff contenders as teams begin to fade and fall out of
the race. That still leaves us with plenty of potential entrants, though, some
much more likely than others.
Even the best of these teams have
weak spots; there are, after all, no unbeatens in the NFL anymore. There’s
going to be a lot of game-planning for these weaknesses, and a lot of efforts
to exploit them. Some of them will likely cost their teams a playoff game.
Here’s a look at the glaring flaw
for each of the NFL’s major playoff contenders.
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS (7-4-1) — TURNOVERS
Turnover ratio has been a problem
for the Steelers all year, but it’s really been exacerbated lately. The warning
signs are everywhere, in fact. Only six teams have given the ball away more
than Pittsburgh has in 2018, and none of them are playoff contenders. Their turnover
differential is minus-8, which is the worst of any current playoff team. Ben
Roethlisberger, with 13 interceptions in 12 games, has particularly been prone
to this. These are the sort of mistakes he and his team can’t make in the
playoffs.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
(11-1) — RUN DEFENSE
For a team with such a talented
defensive front, the Rams actually sit just below the average among run
defenses this season. They’ve allowed about 118 yards per game this season,
good for a modest 18th in the NFL. The worrisome performances are there; both
Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson went for over 100 yards against them for the
Seattle Seahawks this season, and it would probably be worse if teams could
afford to run more against them. Even the team’s own players have highlighted their run defense
as a weak spot.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
(10-2) — PROTECTING DREW BREES
It only took Terron Armstead’s
removal to demonstrate just how fragile the New Orleans offensive line can be.
Drew Brees was limited against the Dallas Cowboys as a makeshift offensive line
left him under a lot of pressure for much of the game. Armstead should be back
by the playoffs, but Dallas demonstrated that a talented pass rush can get at
Brees and disrupt the entire New Orleans offense. That’s a real danger in the
playoffs.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
(10-2) — PASS DEFENSE
The Kansas City run defense isn’t
airtight, but it’s really rather remarkable to see a 10-2 team’s defense
posting the worst set of passing numbers in the NFL. The Chiefs are permitting
295 yards per game through the air, a full 15 yards worse than the Cincinnati
Bengals, who are second-worst. They have an incredible offense, but if they
keep getting stuck in shootouts, it’s entirely possible that something bad
could happen to them in the playoffs.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS (9-3) — PASS DEFENSE
From a pure numbers standpoint,
the Patriots are very nearly a bottom-10 passing defense. A lot of those numbers
were inflated in some early-season defeats where the team really struggled, and
they have improved lately — see their excellent handling of the Minnesota
Vikings’ passing attack on Sunday. However, there is a unit here to be taken
advantage of by some of the league’s best passing attacks — attacks whom New
England will likely have to go through to win a Super Bowl.
HOUSTON TEXANS
(9-3) — OFFENSIVE LINE
The Houston offensive line isn’t
elite and can really be overwhelmed by a solid pass rush. The Texans have
fallen victim to 41 sacks this season, with only two teams surrendering more.
Part of this is the fact that Deshaun Watson can run and extend plays, but the
Texans are also vulnerable to a heavy, committed pass rush. The good news is
they don’t share a conference with the Aaron Donald-led Rams, but it’s an issue
that is going to come up at some point.
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS (9-3) — KICKER
Doesn’t this always seem to be
their problem? The Chargers have settled on a kicker for now after releasing
the struggling Caleb Sturgis and looking elsewhere. It’s led them to rookie
Mike Badgley, who has only missed one field goal and extra point so far but
remains an untested commodity on the biggest stage. Special teams has been a problem for the Chargers before. In the playoffs,
one bad kicking game can end a season. This is a good team with a defense
that’s getting healthy at the right time. They just have to avoid a letdown
here.
CHICAGO BEARS
(8-4) — PASS OFFENSE
Mitchell Trubisky should be
healthy again soon enough, which will come as a big help to a Bears team that
surprisingly lost to the New York Giants last time out. Defensively, they’re
very sound, and they have quality offensive weapons. However, Trubisky is a
second-year pro prone to bouts of inconsistency, and the Chicago passing
offense is in the league’s bottom half in terms of yardage. If they fall behind
and have to push for a comeback, it could be bad news for them.
DALLAS COWBOYS
(7-5) — ROAD FORM
Can the Dallas Cowboys beat a
quality team away from home? They’ve lost just once in Arlington this season, a
surprising defeat to the Tennessee Titans. They’re just 2-4 on the road,
however, and have spent a lot of the season looking like an entirely different
team in that setting. The good news is they’ve won two straight on the road,
including one at Philadelphia. The bad news is the other was against a Falcons
team in freefall. At just 7-5, the Cowboys will almost certainly have to play
on the road in the playoffs. Whether they can win there remains an open
question.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
(7-5) — BEATING THE ELITE
The Seahawks appear to be the
definition of a team that’s good enough to beat bad teams but not good enough
to beat the really good ones. As it stands, the Seahawks are just 1-4 against
teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today, and 6-1 against
everyone else. That’s good enough to get them into the field, but losses
against the Bears, Chargers and twice to the Rams suggests that success is
unlikely once they get there.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
(7-5) — UNSETTLED QUARTERBACK SITUATION
It’s not often that you have a
potential playoff team with a muddled quarterback situation, but that’s where
the Ravens sit as they enter Week 14. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been lights-out, but
he’s won all three of his starts and brought a different dynamic to the
Baltimore offense. That doesn’t really settle the Joe Flacco situation. He’s
set to come back from a hip injury and may not get his job back. The decision will have ramifications
— the defense here is excellent, so much will come down to quarterback
performance.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
(6-5-1) — ONE-DIMENSIONAL OFFENSE
The Vikings have underachieved
for a lot of reasons — their secondary, for instance, hasn’t been as good as it
was advertised to be — but one major issue is how predictable and one-dimensional
they’ve become on offense. Their leading rusher, Latavius Murray, only has 466
rushing yards. It’s not a coincidence that they’ve already lost once to the
Bears, who are able to use their fearsome pass rush to get Kirk Cousins off his
game, pressure him, and not have to worry about being victimized by the run.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES (6-6) — LACK OF RUN GAME
The Eagles have the same problem
as the Vikings, except even more pronounced. Philadelphia’s leading rusher is
Josh Adams, who has only 376 rushing yards on the season. Not coincidentally,
when the Eagles rush for 100 yards as a team, they’re 6-1, with the lone defeat
coming in overtime. When it’s fewer than that, they’re 0-5. Adams has been
better in the last two games, both wins, and that has to remain the same if the
Eagles want to get back in the playoffs.
TENNESSEE TITANS
(6-6) — OFFENSIVE INCONSISTENCY
It’s incredibly difficult to nail
down the Titans, particularly on offense, which kind of sums up the biggest
problem. This is a team that has beaten the Patriots and the Cowboys, becoming
the only road team to win in Arlington this year. They’ve also lost to the
Buffalo Bills and turned in abject performances against the Colts and Texans.
Nobody knows which Titans team is going to turn up on a weekly basis, and
that’s not a recipe for long-term success.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
(6-6) — CAM NEWTON’S PLAY
Newton is fresh off a
four-interception game and was replaced on a Hail Mary attempt against Tampa Bay. He made
clear that his shoulder is an issue. Carolina’s current four-game losing
streak was preceded by three straight wins in which Newton was steady,
efficient and didn’t throw an interception. He’s been picked at least once in
each of the four losses since and was held below 300 yards in two of them.
Newton’s inconsistent play is a big reason Carolina keeps falling just short
and may miss the playoffs after looking like a sure thing not long ago.
Apologies to fans of the 6-6
Broncos, Dolphins and Redskins for not considering your teams playoff
contenders.
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