PLENTY AT STAKE
FOR DUKE, NORTH CAROLINA
It is annually one of the most hyped games of the regular
season, and this season's Duke vs. North Carolina game at Cameron Indoor
Stadium is no different. Plus, this time, it's a lot more
expensive, too.
There has been a significant difference in the attention
given to both teams this season. Duke has been on the national radar since the
preseason, as the Blue Devils have Zion
Williamson, RJ Barrett and
a couple more first-round picks surrounding them. They also beat Kentucky by 34
points on the opening night of the season. North Carolina isn't exactly flying
under the radar since, you know, it's North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are
clearly playing second fiddle to Duke on Tobacco Road this season.
So what's at stake on Wednesday (9 p.m. ET on ESPN)?
First, let's look at the ACC title race. North Carolina can
forge a three-way tie at the top of the standings with a win in Durham.
Virginia's win at Virginia Tech on Monday moved the Cavaliers to 11-2 in the
league, and both of these teams would be the same if Carolina wins on Tuesday.
Duke likely stays at No. 1 in the 1-seed pecking order
regardless of the result Wednesday. The Blue Devils clearly have the best NCAA
tournament résumé in the country, and the team behind them is Virginia, which
Duke already beat twice this season.
North Carolina is squarely in the mix for a 2-seed at this
point, and a win in Cameron would be a huge boost to the Tar Heels' profile.
They've already beaten Gonzaga, but the next-best wins on their ledger are over
Louisville and Virginia Tech.
Both teams love to push the pace, both teams love to crash
the glass -- Carolina a little bit more on the defensive end -- and the game
will likely come down to individual matchups. Coby White has
been one of the more underrated freshman stars in the country this season, but
Duke's Tre Jones will
look to shut him down. Will Carolina go big and try to put Luke Maye on
Williamson or Barrett? Will the Heels go small and play Nassir Little for
extended minutes -- and is Little fully healthy?
Is it time to expand the elite group to five teams and
include Kentucky?
The temptation is there after the Wildcats obliterated Tennessee in
the second half of Saturday's 17-point win in Lexington, but remember we've
gone down this path with the Wildcats a few times this season.
Obviously, we did it at the start of the season before they
lost by 34 to Duke.
Then we did it after they handled North
Carolina in Chicago and won at Louisville by
13 -- but then lost at Alabama by
two points. The bandwagon got full again after the 10-game win streak in
January and February, prior to the home defeat to LSU.
And now, we try it again after a win over Tennessee.
Take the entire season into account, though, and it's pretty
clear that Kentucky is among the five best teams in the country right now. The
Wildcats have lost three games since Nov. 6 by a combined five points. They're
No. 5 at KenPom
and No. 6 in the NET, BPI and
Sagarin rankings. They've beaten Tennessee, North Carolina, Kansas and
Louisville, and they have eight Quadrant 1 wins -- third-most of anyone in the
country.
They have an elite defense, one that has improved
considerably since Ashton Hagans took
over the starting point guard duties. It's currently ranked No. 8 in adjusted
defensive efficiency at KenPom, but if you take into account just the games
since Hagans moved into the starting lineup, BartTorvik.com has
the Wildcats with the No. 4-ranked defense.
Offensively, they still have some issues shooting the ball,
making 10 or more 3-pointers just three times all season, but they're one of
the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and get to the free throw
line at a high rate. More importantly, they finally found a consistent go-to
guy: PJ Washington.
Washington has played as well as anyone in the country over the past month,
making a push for All-American honors. He has scored 20 or more points in seven
of his past eight games.
We're not saying John Calipari has a perfect team or is even
a Final Four favorite, but the Wildcats have steadily improved since the
opening night embarrassment and are hitting their stride according to the
typical Calipari timeline.
The Tennessee rematch on March 2 in Knoxville is going to be
a true litmus test for the young Wildcats away from home -- and will go a long
way toward determining the SEC regular-season champion -- but right now,
Kentucky has a strong case as being a solidly top-five team.
1. DUKE BLUE
DEVILS (23-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2
THIS WEEK: vs. North Carolina (Wednesday), at Syracuse (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2
THIS WEEK: vs. North Carolina (Wednesday), at Syracuse (Saturday)
The first of two Duke-North Carolina games comes up on
Wednesday, and the Blue Devils can begin to get some separation in the ACC race
with a win in Durham. RJ Barrett's recent play is cause for optimism for Mike
Krzyzewski, as the freshman star is coming off just the fourth triple-double in
Duke program history -- in a game in which Barrett had zero turnovers.
2. VIRGINIA
CAVALIERS (23-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 3
THIS WEEK: Beat Virginia Tech 64-58 on Monday, at Louisville (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 3
THIS WEEK: Beat Virginia Tech 64-58 on Monday, at Louisville (Saturday)
Virginia has only the two losses to Duke on its ledger, but
the Cavaliers have looked off the pace a little bit in recent weeks. They went
to Virginia Tech and beat the Hokies on Monday, but turnovers were once again
an issue. It was the fourth time in the past six games that Virginia turned it
over on at least 20 percent of its possessions -- a number the Cavaliers hit
just four times all of last season. Tony Bennett will hope to see his team
tighten up its passing and decision-making moving forward.
3. TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERS (24-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2
THIS WEEK: Beat Vanderbilt 58-46 on Tuesday, at LSU (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2
THIS WEEK: Beat Vanderbilt 58-46 on Tuesday, at LSU (Saturday)
Tennessee bounced back from its first loss in two months
with a win on Tuesday, but the Volunteers had their worst offensive performance
of the season against a team that's winless in the SEC. Tennessee has shot just
13-for-46 from 3-point range in the past two games, and the Volunteers rely on
that perimeter balance to open the lane for Grant
Williams & Co. up front. Tennessee did have its best
defensive performance of the SEC campaign on Tuesday, though.
4. GONZAGA
BULLDOGS (25-2)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 4
THIS WEEK: vs. Pepperdine (Thursday), vs. BYU (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 4
THIS WEEK: vs. Pepperdine (Thursday), vs. BYU (Saturday)
Josh Perkins played
his best game in weeks on Saturday, finishing with 15 points, nine assists and
just one turnover. Perkins is still the biggest key to Gonzaga's hopes of
winning a national championship, and more performances like his on Saturday
will go a long way. He's a four-year starter with plenty of big-game
experience, and he has had his best season in a Gonzaga uniform in 2018-19.
5. KENTUCKY
WILDCATS (22-4)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6
THIS WEEK: Beat Missouri 66-58 on Tuesday, vs. Auburn (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6
THIS WEEK: Beat Missouri 66-58 on Tuesday, vs. Auburn (Saturday)
Kentucky won at Missouri on Tuesday, but John Calipari will
have a big concern moving forward: Senior forward Reid Travis left
the game in the second half, and the school announced that he has a sprained
right knee. We will have to wait to see the extent of the injury, but if Travis
is out for an extended period, backup EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards will
need to play bigger roles. Travis gives the Wildcats experience and toughness
down low.
6. MICHIGAN
WOLVERINES (23-3)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 5
THIS WEEK: at Minnesota (Thursday), vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 5
THIS WEEK: at Minnesota (Thursday), vs. Michigan State (Sunday)
The first of two Michigan-Michigan State showdowns takes
place on Sunday, but the Wolverines must first travel to Minnesota to play a
Golden Gophers team that could use another marquee win for their tournament
hopes. The first time around, Michigan needed some last-second help to beat
Minnesota by two -- and Zavier
Simpson and Charles
Matthews really struggled offensively. It can't be a game the Wolverines
overlook.
7. HOUSTON
COUGARS (25-1)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 7
THIS WEEK: vs. South Florida (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 7
THIS WEEK: vs. South Florida (Saturday)
Houston caught fire in the second half against Tulane -- including
a 35-5 run that spanned just about 10 minutes and featured nine Houston
3-pointers -- for the Cougars' 25th win of the season. Armoni Brooks and Corey Davis Jr. have been the stars for Kelvin Sampson
all season, and Sunday was no different. The two combined for 14 3-pointers and
50 points. Houston's résumé continues to improve, and the December win over LSU
looks better and better.
8. NORTH
CAROLINA TAR HEELS (20-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 8
THIS WEEK: at Duke (Wednesday), vs. Florida State (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 8
THIS WEEK: at Duke (Wednesday), vs. Florida State (Saturday)
One thing to monitor in the days leading up to the Duke
showdown on Wednesday will be the status of Nassir Little.
He played 11 minutes in the first half against Wake Forest despite suffering an
ankle injury against Virginia last week -- but then didn't play in the second
half after getting hit in the chest. Roy Williams told reporters after the game
that Little was "OK," but given the important role Little could play
in terms of matching up with Zion
Williamson and RJ Barrett, it's worth watching.
9. MICHIGAN
STATE SPARTANS (21-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 9
THIS WEEK: vs. Rutgers (Wednesday), at Michigan (Sunday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 9
THIS WEEK: vs. Rutgers (Wednesday), at Michigan (Sunday)
How will Tom Izzo adjust to life without Nick Ward?
He was able to replace some of Joshua Langford's production with Kyle Ahrens and
an increased role for Aaron Henry,
but there are fewer options up front. Xavier
Tillman fits the Michigan State mold, and Thomas
Kithier will provide depth. But more than ever, this is going
to be Cassius Winston's team moving forward. The Spartans will go as
far as Winston can take them.
10. NEVADA WOLF
PACK (24-1)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 10
THIS WEEK: at San Diego State (Wednesday), vs. Fresno State (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 10
THIS WEEK: at San Diego State (Wednesday), vs. Fresno State (Saturday)
Although Eric Musselman has preached for much of his Nevada
career that depth isn't really needed in college basketball, he played three
bench players for 20-plus minutes apiece on Saturday. One of those was Jordan Brown,
who has played at least 13 minutes in five of his past six games -- after
hitting that number just seven times all season. Is that a product of Nevada
blowouts, Musselman saving some legs for March or really extending the
rotation?
11. KANSAS
JAYHAWKS (20-6)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 11
THIS WEEK: at Texas Tech (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 11
THIS WEEK: at Texas Tech (Saturday)
Well, look at the Big 12 standings now. Kansas is just a
half-game back of Kansas State, tied with Texas Tech for second place. Can the
Jayhawks win the Big 12 yet again? They have a week off before heading to
Lubbock for their toughest remaining game on the schedule: at Texas Tech. The
Red Raiders have won four in a row, but Kansas blew them out by 16 earlier this
month in Lawrence.
12. MARQUETTE
GOLDEN EAGLES (21-4)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 12
THIS WEEK: vs. Butler (Wednesday), at Providence (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 12
THIS WEEK: vs. Butler (Wednesday), at Providence (Saturday)
Theo John has
picked up at least four fouls in seven of his past eight games, limiting his
minutes on the court. He's averaging 7.4 fouls committed per 40 minutes on the
season, and Marquette's defense suffers when he isn't in the game as a result.
He's one of the nation's best shot-blockers and is the team's best defensive
rebounder in conference play. The Golden Eagles need him on the court come
March.
13. PURDUE
BOILERMAKERS (19-7)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 13
THIS WEEK: Beat Indiana 48-46 on Tuesday, at Nebraska (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 13
THIS WEEK: Beat Indiana 48-46 on Tuesday, at Nebraska (Saturday)
Purdue isn't going to win too many games with Carsen
Edwards shooting 4-for-24 from the field, but the Boilermakers
got a tip-in from Matt Haarms with
3.2 seconds left to beat Indiana in Bloomington. They are now in a dead heat
with Michigan and Michigan State for first place in the Big Ten -- and they
have the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams.
14. LSU TIGERS (21-4)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 15
THIS WEEK: vs. Florida (Wednesday), vs. Tennessee (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 15
THIS WEEK: vs. Florida (Wednesday), vs. Tennessee (Saturday)
With Tennessee losing at Kentucky on Saturday, the Tigers
are in a tie for first in the SEC with the Volunteers. And look at the
schedule: This Saturday, Tennessee visits Baton Rouge. LSU just has to get
through Florida first. Will Wade has done a tremendous job with this team in
SEC play, losing just one game by one point since Dec. 12. One thing to watch:
The Tigers have allowed at least one point per possession in five straight
games and just allowed Georgia to score 1.23 points per possession.
15. LOUISVILLE
CARDINALS (18-8)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 14
THIS WEEK: at Syracuse (Wednesday), vs. Virginia (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: 14
THIS WEEK: at Syracuse (Wednesday), vs. Virginia (Saturday)
Louisville nearly had a disastrous week but ended up with a
key split to keep the damage to a minimum. Had the Cardinals lost to Clemson on
Saturday, they would have been on a three-game losing streak heading into games
at Syracuse and vs. Virginia. On the other hand, they need to take care of the
ball far better. In the past three games, the Cardinals have 37 assists and 52
turnovers.
16. TEXAS TECH RED
RAIDERS (21-5)
PREVIOUS RANKING: Unranked
THIS WEEK: vs. Kansas (Saturday)
PREVIOUS RANKING: Unranked
THIS WEEK: vs. Kansas (Saturday)
Texas Tech replaces Iowa State after the Cyclones lost to
Baylor at home on Tuesday. Chris Beard and the Red Raiders are right in the
thick of the Big 12 hunt after winning four in a row -- and they have a real
opportunity this weekend, when Kansas comes to Lubbock. After a couple slip-ups
in mid-January, Tech is back playing defense at an elite level. Its past four
opponents have scored a combined 0.80 points per possession.
DROPPED OUT: Iowa State (No. 16)
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