10 COLLEGE FOOTBALL COACHES FEELING THE HEAT IN 2019

Looking ahead to the 2019 college football season, these 10 head coaches will be on the hot seat.

We’re roughly seven months from the first games of the 2019 college football season, but it’s never too early to begin speculation on certain big topics. Early Heisman Trophy candidates are an easy one, but alongside that are coaches who will enter next season on the hot seat. A few surprisingly survived last season, and without better results next season a change will almost surely be made.

10. WILLIE TAGGART, FLORIDA STATE

After just one season, it’s hard to say Taggart will enter his second season in Tallahassee with real questions about his job security. But the Seminoles were just 5-7 last year, and they barely (and really shouldn’t have, with only five FBS wins) made a bowl game in Jimbo Fisher’s last season as head coach in 2017. For a football program that went bowling for 36 years straight, and popped up in the national title conversation at times, better results are expected.

If Florida State doesn’t show some progress next season, ideally into the seven or eight-win range heading into a bowl, speculation will come regarding Taggart’s status. He would ideally get more time to implement his systems and get the right players, but another dismal season would bring at least a coin flip’s chance Taggart is two-and-done.

9. MIKE BOBO, COLORADO STATE

Bobo started his tenure at Colorado State with seven wins and a bowl appearance in each of his first three seasons. But a 3-9 record last season, and a five-game losing streak to end the season has turned up the temperature on his seat looking toward next season.

On the heels of that disappointing season, Bobo declined the $100,000 raise he was due for 2019. He’s hardly headed for the poor house, as he’ll make $1.8 million next season. But Bobo cited the importance of showing players that accountability starts with him.

This is an administration that stood behind me, and I felt like we didn’t live up to our end of the deal,” Bobo told ESPN. “I wanted to make a statement to our players that we’re in this together and you’ve got be accountable, starting with me.

An extension a little over a year ago put Bobo under contract through the 2022 season. But those kind of announcements are mostly procedural or cosmetic, and wouldn’t prevent a firing or Bobo leaving before the deal expires.

Toward the end of last season, a website calling for Bobo to be fired (BoboHas2GoGo.com) was launched. Whatever shine that was attached to his coming to Fort Collins with SEC roots (at Georgia), if not already gone, has clearly faded outside the athletic department at Colorado State.

Getting the Rams back over .500 in the Mountain West, and getting back to a bowl game, should be enough for Bobo to keep his job. But anything short of that will invite a change, and a midseason firing can’t be ruled out if things go badly early.

8. TROY CALHOUN, AIR FORCE

Calhoun has a solid 87-67 record over 12 seasons at Air Force, with nine bowl appearances and eight winning seasons. But two of those seasons without a bowl bid and/or a winning record have been the last two, with matching 5-7 records. A 2-10 mark in 2013 still stands as a notable downward blip, but the Falcons have had a losing record four times in the last seven seasons.

Air Force improved some defensively last year, into the top-60 in the country in total and scoring defense, while maintaining things from the previous year offensively (third in the country in rushing offense). But their four FBS wins in 2018 came against teams that combined for a 13-35 record (Navy, UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State), and over the aforementioned seven seasons the Falcons are below .500 (45-48) against FBS opponents.

Calhoun deserves credit for bringing his alma mater back to a solid level of success over a decade-plus as head coach. But there’s no denying the results have been diminished lately, and another sub-.500 record in 2019 will be a sign a fresh voice is needed along with serving as a further sign it might be time for both sides to move on.

7. LOVIE SMITH, ILLINOIS

The move for a big-name head coach has not worked out thus far in Champaign, as the Illini are 9-27 in three seasons under Smith. A 4-8 record last year, which was an improvement from a 2-10 mark in 2017, was enough to get the former Chicago Bears’ head coach a two-year contract extension.

No one realistically expects 10-win seasons at Illinois. But competing in the weaker Big Ten West makes a 4-23 record in conference play under Smith a disappointment, while also creating the idea the Illini can rise up quickly and compete for a spot in the conference title game.

Athletic director Josh Whitman’s first big decision on the job was hiring Smith, in a transparent pursuit of publicity and NFL acumen. Smith was the 13th-highest paid coach in college football last year, under his original six-year, $21 million contract, and as the Chicago Tribune laid out after it was announced the only move for Illinois may have been to extend him with a $12 million buyout if he was fired after last season.

Losing coordinator Hardy Nickerson to a midseason resignation for health reasons was not ideal, but defense is supposed to be Smith’s things and Illinois allowed 63 points three times last season. A marked improvement on that side of the ball next season feels mandatory.

Smith’s original contract calls for a slight decline in his total buyout if he were fired in-season next season. As long as the extension doesn’t carry a huge buyout, a move to fire him after next season has to be on the radar if the team falls short again. No matter what, leaving the extension aside, Smith should have to reach bowl eligibility to secure his future at Illinois beyond next season.

6. CHRIS ASH, RUTGERS

As last season approached, Rutgers athletic director Pat Hobbs scoffed at Ash ranking highly on a hot seat list from Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports. But after whatever perceived progress there was in 2017 (4-8, 3-6 in the Big Ten), the Scarlet Knights took a step back and went 1-11 last season with zero conference wins for the second time in Ash’s three seasons as head coach.

Before last year was even over, it was reported Ash would return for a fourth season at Rutgers. A university official went a bit further, telling NJ Advanced Media Ash is not now and has never been, on the hot seat. But the time might be approaching where that will change.

Had he been fired after last season, Ash would have been owed a $9.8 million buyout. After the 2019 season, that drops to $8 million. At that point, as cited by Forbes, Rutgers would be close to the start of the 2020-21 academic year and finally getting a full revenue share from the Big Ten. A buyout for a coach, significant or otherwise, will instantly feel more palatable with an influx of money coming in.

There can’t be great expectations for Rutgers football, with everything outside of Greg Schiano’s tenure as head coach as proof. But Ash has to show some progress in the win column next season, or he will be gone.

5. RANDY EDSALL, UCONN

Edsall’s second run as head coach at UConn (4-20 over two seasons) has not gone nearly as well as the first (eight or more wins six times, five bowl appearances). His contract contains some of the most ridiculous bonus structure you’ll ever see too, for things like when the Huskies score first, lead at halftime, tackles for loss margin defensively and points per possession allowed. A better team would help Edsall collect more money, but as it is he earned $56,000 extra for delivering a 1-11 record last season. Former defensive coordinator Bill Crocker, who led a unit that set single-season FBS records for points and yards allowed per game in 2018, collected $14,500 in bonuses and offensive coordinator John Dunn got an extra $13,500 for parallel or similarly trivial incentives.

Edsall’s agent deserves credit for convincing UConn’s administration to agree to such odd bonuses on top of his base pay of $1.1 million, which ranked him 80th out of 123 FBS head coaches in 2018 (via USA TODAY). None of how he’s compensated is the coach’s fault since we’d all agree if some is good more is better and there’s never really such thing as too much money.

Edsall agreed to a five-year deal when he came back to Storrs, with a $3 million buyout that was set to decrease by $1 million annually over the first three years of the contract. Next season will be Edsall’s third back at UConn, so basic math suggests the buyout goes away completely after that.

Suffice to say, Edsall needs at least a handful of wins in 2019 to keep his job. And even that might not be, and maybe shouldn’t be, enough.

4. MIKE GUNDY, OKLAHOMA STATE

After three straight 10-win seasons, the Cowboys went 7-6 last year with plenty of ups (wins over Boise State, Texas, West Virginia and Missouri, a narrow loss to Oklahoma) and downs (losses to Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU). Breaking in a new quarterback and replacing a lot of other talent offers an explanation for that inconsistency, but Gundy will surely have to foster some sort of rebound next season.

Oklahoma State also went 7-6 in 2014, before starting that streak of 10-win seasons. Gundy and noted booster T. Boone Pickens have long had a rocky relationship, which has at times made the head coach a candidate to jump ship for another job despite his deep ties to the school going back to his days as a Cowboys’ quarterback. Things have seemingly cooled between the two recently, but just last summer Pickens (however casually) laid national title expectations at Gundy’s feet via a statement on his website.

I’m in this to win a national championship,” he wrote. “Turning 90 as I did last May only fuels that fire. Time for me is winding down, but I remain an optimist that Mike Gundy can and will deliver on a national championship. The sooner the better. At 90, I don’t buy green bananas.

It’s probably not playoff or bust (or even Big 12 title or bust) for Gundy and Oklahoma State next season, and there’s still some chance he’ll decide to leave on his own at some point. But another down campaign stands to bring speculation on his status, with the deep pockets of Pickens to pay whatever buyout would be required on the five-year, $22.5 million extension (with automatic annual rollovers Oklahoma State controls and an increase in what Gundy would owe the school if he left on his own) the two sides agreed to in June of 2017.

Firing Gundy would come with the follow-up question of who Oklahoma State would get to replace him, which there’s no easy answer to given his status as the winningest and longest-tenured coach in school history (121-59 over 14 seasons). But stranger things have happened, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the tension with Pickens ramp up again at some point during next season.

3. BOB DAVIE, NEW MEXICO

Davie seemed to finally have things on a good track in Albuquerque, with a 7-6 record in 2015 and a 9-4 mark with a bowl win in 2016. But if back-to-back 3-9 seasons isn’t enough to heat up his seat going into next season, then troubling allegations he assaulted players, obstructed a rape investigation and frequently used racist comments, resulting in a school investigation and an essentially meaningless 30-day suspension almost a year ago should do the trick.

Davie is now only 33-54 over seven seasons at New Mexico, so the winning seasons in 2015 and 2016 stand as the exception among a litany of three and four-win seasons. If his name sounds familiar it should since Davie succeeded Lou Holtz at Notre Dame and went 35-25 over five seasons (1997-2001) as head coach in South Bend. During that long stretch between coaching stints, Davie worked as an analyst for ESPN/ABC.

The integrity of it aside, good on-field results makes it easier to ignore a coach’s shortcomings in other areas (shy of criminal activity). Davie is toeing both lines right now, with a sub-.400 winning percentage at New Mexico and the off-field trouble that came to light lingering over him. A return to a bowl game feels like a minimum requirement for his continued employment beyond next season, and if things remain off the rails Davie could be fired in-season or it wouldn’t be a shock if he stepped down.

2. GUS MALZAHN, AUBURN

This list is not complete without Malzahn, as Auburn entered last season with fringe playoff aspirations but wound up 8-5 with a 3-5 record in SEC play. A 10-win season in 2017, even with losses in the SEC Championship Game and the Peach Bowl, got Malzahn a seven-year, $49 million contract extension.

But when the Tigers were 4-3 around mid-season last season, Brandon Marcello of 247 Sports spoke to Paul Finebaum and suggested a substantial buyout payout ($38 million) would not prevent a decision to fire Malzahn at the end of the season. Auburn won four of six games from that point on, including a 63-14 win over Purdue in the Music City Bowl to end the season on a high note, and Malzahn survived. The $38 million, or presumably a bit less after next season, may be of relatively minimal consequence for the eighth-most valuable college football program in the country (for the 2017-18 season, $112 million in revenue and $61 million in profit, according to Forbes).

Since leading Auburn to the national title game in his first season (2013), Malzahn has won 8, 7, 8, 10 and 8 games with a 2-3 record in bowl games. Reaching mid-tier bowls on a semi-regular basis is not the accepted standard at Auburn, and Malzahn is 0-2 in New Year’s Day games.

Malzahn is never far away from the hot seat, as he suffers for the out-sized expectations which are around him. Another season with less than 10 wins in 2019 stands to bring his dismissal, once and for all.

1. CLAY HELTON, USC

Helton somehow survived the worst season for USC football since 2000, matching the 5-7 record the Trojans posted under Paul Hackett before Peter Carroll arrived. The hiring of former Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinator felt like a move to help Helton succeed, while also creating an easy option to replace him if/when it came to that point.

But Helton dodged that potential high-level contingency plan to replace him. Kingsbury quickly left USC to take the head coaching job with the Arizona Cardinals, after athletic director Lynn Swann backed down from exercising his right to block interviews with NFL teams.

A 21-6 record over his first two full seasons as USC’s head coach, with a Rose Bowl win and an appearance in the Cotton Bowl, had Helton’s stock on an upswing. But that is looking like a great credit to former quarterback Sam Darnold, as Helton and since-fired offensive coordinator Tee Martin struggled to get the most out of highly touted recruit J.T. Daniels last season.

Helton seems like a genuinely nice guy, and he’s a solid football coach by most accounts. But nice and solid is not where USC expects to be on a national scale.

The mulligan Helton got after last year’s underachievement is definitely a one-time deal, so without a bowl bid next season the time to his dismissal after the regular season finale may be measured in hours. Even if the Trojans win seven or eight games, Swann could go after a big fish in an effort to bring the program back to real prominence.