We can argue about whether it's overrated, but there's
little doubt that it often helps teams and hurts others. And now that all but
two NFL franchises have reached
the offseason, it's time to look ahead to the one of the earliest, most
entertaining and important stretches on the NFL calendar, which begins March
13.
Now, the word "bold" can be vague, which is
convenient because by the time franchise tags and re-signings water down the
free-agent pool, there won't be room for 32 audacious and/or eye-catching moves
during free agency.
So not all of these 32 predictions were created equal in
terms of boldness, but none would be cheap, all would impact starting-caliber
players and all would create plenty of local buzz.
With that in mind, here's one bold free agency-related
prediction per franchise. As always I start with the team that I covered
the Pittsburgh Steelers.
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS SIGN BLAKE BORTLES
The Pittsburgh Steelers often operate as though they're
allergic to free agency. But if they dip a toe into those waters this March, it
just might be for a poor man's Ben Roethlisberger.
The similarities between Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles
are undeniable, and it wouldn't be far-fetched for the two to join forces.
Pittsburgh, after all, lacks experience behind Big Ben, and Bortles—who
according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport will probably
be released with a post-June 1 designation—has plenty of big-game
experience.
His performances in those big games explain why he's
unlikely to find a starting job this offseason, but Bortles did help the
Jaguars beat the Steelers in a road playoff contest just a year ago, and he
possesses many of Big Ben's qualities (including size, mobility and arm
strength).
The 6'5", 236-pound Bortles would probably make a
decent spot starter if the soon-to-be 37-year-old Roethlisberger (6'5",
240 lbs) were to go down at any point, but at age 26, it's also still possible
Bortles could emerge as an heir apparent in a new environment (and with a hell
of a lot more support).
ARIZONA
CARDINALS SIGN TYRELL WILLIAMS
New offensive-minded Arizona Cardinals head
coach Kliff Kingsbury will likely push general manager Steve Keim to get
young quarterback Josh Rosen more support, and impending Los Angeles Chargers
free-agent wide receiver Tyrell Williams makes a lot of sense.
Williams is an ideal complement to veteran Larry Fitzgerald, who generally lines
up in the slot. In Los Angeles, the 6'4", 205-pound Williams usually
leveraged size and speed advantages as an X or Y receiver, and he's got
tremendous playmaking ability.
The Cards could also use a stud offensive tackle to help
protect the 21-year-old Rosen, but the free-agent market is comically
thin at
that position. So instead, look for them to make a minor
splash on an outside threat like Williams.
And considering that the well-accomplished
undrafted Western Oregon product is only 26, he and second-year
second-round pick Christian Kirk would leave the receiving corps in good hands
regardless of how much longer Fitzgerald sticks around.
ATLANTA
FALCONS SIGN EZEKIEL ANSAH
Atlanta Falcons edge-rusher Vic Beasley Jr. was
superb as a sophomore in 2016, but each of his three other NFL seasons indicate
he might be a bust. And with Takkarist McKinley yet to emerge up front and
impending free agent Grady Jarrett lacking support across the defensive
line, the Falcons will probably enter the offseason desperate for defensive end
help.
Enter Detroit Lions impending free-agent
pass-rusher Ezekiel Ansah, who has two 12-plus-sack seasons in his last
four but struggled with injuries (including a dislocated shoulder) under the
franchise tag in 2018 and thus is likely to hit the open market in March.
The fifth overall pick of the 2013 draft won't be cheap,
and his lack of consistency is a potential red flag, but he appears to be a
good fit in a low-pressure situation that would include surrounding talent. And
besides, the Falcons have few other glaring holes and enough money to bring
back Jarrett and acquire a player of Ansah's ilk.
This is a crucial year for defense-oriented Falcons head
coach Dan Quinn, who is trying to prove his 2016 Super Bowl campaign wasn't a
fluke. He'll likely lobby general manager Thomas Dimitroff for veteran
help on his side of the ball, and Ansah could be the answer.
BALTIMORE
RAVENS SIGN MARK INGRAM
It appears the Baltimore Ravens are moving all of their
chips to the center of Lamar Jackson's table, which means they'll likely employ
a uniquely run-heavy attack in 2019 and beyond. That could put them in the
market for an interior offensive lineman to team with—and eventually
replace—stalwart guard Marshal Yanda, but it might also mean bringing in
more talent in the offensive backfield.
Undrafted rookie running back Gus Edwards averaged a
strong 5.2 yards per carry in limited action, but Edwards wouldn't be the first
obscure young back to flash once in the pan and then disappear. Heck, the
Ravens saw a similar flash from Alex Collins in 2017 before he became
practically useless in 2018.
Look for Baltimore to partner Edwards with a consistent,
steady and well-accomplished veteran such as Mark Ingram, who has averaged at
least 4.5 yards per carry on at least 125 (but no more than 250) attempts in
each of his last four seasons.
Ingram will turn 30 in December, but he hasn't been
overworked in New Orleans and would bring a nice veteran presence to an offense
that will likely say goodbye to quarterback Joe Flacco in the coming
weeks.
BUFFALO
BILLS SIGN GOLDEN TATE
It was tempting to go overly bold with the Buffalo Bills
and prognosticate the signing of Le'Veon Bell in Orchard Park, but Buffalo
still owes big
money to LeSean McCoy, and you'd imagine general manager
Brandon Beane, head coach Sean McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian
Daboll realize they're in bigger need of either a franchise left tackle or a
steady pass-catcher for 22-year-old quarterback Josh Allen.
With no top-notch offensive linemen slated to hit the
open market, Buffalo's splash is more likely to come on a player such as Golden
Tate, who would immediately become the top target in that offense.
It's sickening that Zay Jones and Robert Foster are
probably the best two wide receivers in an attack that lacks depth and
experience at the position, but the 30-year-old Tate is a consistent veteran
with a Super Bowl ring and a Pro Bowl nod on his resume.
No other receiver scheduled to hit free agency has a
track record like Tate's, and the Bills are expected to have enough salary-cap space to
outspend most teams.
CAROLINA
PANTHERS SIGN COLIN KAEPERNICK
The Carolina Panthers could get bold in a multitude of
ways this offseason. They could sign a top-tier center to replace the retiring
Ryan Kalil; they could upgrade on highly
paid and
even more highly disappointing left tackle Matt Kalil; they could bring in a
big-money pass-rusher to help and eventually replace the ancient Julius Peppers
(39); they could start rebuilding the secondary with a star defensive back; or
they could sign a free-agent quarterback by the name of Colin Rand
Kaepernick.
It's possible the ship has sailed on Kaepernick's NFL
career. It's easy to argue he's been blackballed because he's the founding
father of NFL protests during the national anthem, and he brought a case
against the league for
collusion. But so did Eric Reid, who is the Robin to Kap's Batman
regarding NFL player protests against racial injustice and systematic
oppression, and he was signed in the fall by—you guessed it—the Panthers.
New owner David Tepper took a chance on Reid because
he's a good player and Carolina needed a safety. Kaepernick is undoubtedly a
good player, too, and now it's beginning to look as though Tepper's team may
need a quarterback.
Cam Newton's
injured throwing shoulder continues to be concerning and earlier this month
Tepper wouldn't
rule out the possibility that Newton could pull an Andrew Luck and take a season off
to heal.
With that in mind, why wouldn't the Panthers bring
Kaepernick on board alongside Reid? Reid has already served as a guinea pig,
and it's possible the upside will outweigh the downside—especially if Newton's
bad shoulder continues to hold him back.
CHICAGO
BEARS SIGN DEE FORD
Don't look for the Chicago Bears to drop cannonballs all
over the free-agent pool this March. Last offseason was about splashes in
Chicago, and now a well-rounded, emerging roster should generally be left to
jell.
Still, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Bears invest
in another pass-rusher to complement Khalil Mack—somebody who could rotate with
Leonard Floyd or even replace Roquan Smith or Danny Trevathan on passing
downs.
That man could be impending Kansas City Chiefs free-agent
edge-rusher Dee Ford, who doesn't do anything particularly well except harass
quarterbacks—but wouldn't be asked to do much else within a highly supportive
Chicago defense.
Ford, 27, will be expensive, but Chicago is set in so
many other spots that it might outbid cap-richer counterparts for his
services.
It sure would be fun to see him there, and you know new
defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano will lobby hard for at least one
additional piece with Ford-like abilities.
CINCINNATI
BENGALS LET ANDY DALTON GO
This probably won't happen because the Cincinnati Bengals
are stubborn, and there are no signs they're prepared to give up on the
painfully mediocre Andy Dalton at
quarterback. So consider it more of a bold suggestion than a bold prediction.
And don't complain, because the alternative—considering Cincinnati's
free-agency track record—is for me to predict that its boldest move will be
signing a backup safety.
And that's why it's odd the Bengals are hanging on to
Dalton. They're notoriously frugal, Dalton is scheduled to cost them $16.3
million in salary-cap
space in 2019, he can be cut free of charge, and he isn't
very good.
His numbers have regressed since he posted a triple-digit
passer rating in 2015, and that isn't likely to change now that he's 31 years
old.
To the Bengals' credit, they finally moved on from stale
head coach Marvin Lewis earlier this offseason. Next, they should consider
cutting bait on Dalton and giving their new head coach (rumored
to be quarterback-minded Rams assistant Zac Taylor) a
fresh start with a new signal-caller.
CLEVELAND
BROWNS SIGN JOHN BROWN
The Cleveland Browns are also probably out of splashes
following about a half-decade in the NFL wave pool. They've got their franchise
quarterback in Baker Mayfield, their franchise running back in Nick Chubb, an
elite receiver in Jarvis Landry and several defensive players worth building
around.
But since Landry spends most of his time in the slot,
Mayfield could use another speedy target out wide.
Cue John Brown's jump from one AFC North squad to
another.
The Browns can afford to
overpay Brown, who isn't a superstar but is coming off a season with the Ravens
in which he tied for fourth in the league (alongside Tyreek Hill) in yards per
catch (17.0).
Still only 28, the experienced former Cardinal also has a
1,000-yard season and 22 career touchdowns under his belt. He'd be an immediate
upgrade over Rashard Higgins opposite Antonio Callaway.
DALLAS
COWBOYS SIGN EARL THOMAS
Bold can be surprising, and surprising can be bold, but
there's no rule that bold must be surprising, which is why the
Dallas Cowboys would still be performing an act of boldness by signing
superstar safety Earl Thomas—even if the whole Milky Way has been predicting
said development for well over a year.
Thirteen months to be exact. That's how long ago Thomas
visited the Cowboys locker room following a game between Seattle and Dallas at
AT&T Stadium and told the most popular team from his home state to "come
get me."
It's rare, but the Cowboys have a bunch of money to spend
this offseason—more than $48 million, per Spotrac—and
with Amari Cooper on board and the offensive line still jacked, they'll
probably spend that cash on the defense.
Look for them to lock up impending free-agent defensive
end Demarcus Lawrence before they make it happen with Thomas.
DENVER
BRONCOS RELEASE CASE KEENUM, SIGN JOE FLACCO
John Elway appears low on patience.
In his season-closing press conference, the Denver
Broncos general manager would only say that
Case Keenum remains the team's quarterback "right now." And that
tepid endorsement stems from the fact that the 2017 breakout Minnesota Vikings
star did his best pumpkin impression with a dud showing in Denver in
2018.
Elway could save $11 million in cap
space by releasing Keenum "right now," and that
just might happen if he realizes he has a shot at a Super Bowl-winning
quarterback like Flacco or Nick Foles.
Foles, 30, is probably the better option because he's
done more lately and is younger, but that's exactly why we'll peg the
34-year-old Flacco for Denver. Every time Elway has to make a decision on a
quarterback, he makes
the wrong one.
DETROIT
LIONS MOVE ON FROM EZEKIEL ANSAH
While the Falcons might be willing to gamble on Ansah,
the Detroit Lions might have had enough. Detroit general manager Bob Quinn
didn't draft him, he isn't necessarily a Matt Patricia guy, and a second
franchise tag is probably off the table following an injury-derailed sixth
season for Ansah.
Somebody else will likely be happy to pay him a lot more
money than the Lions, who are scheduled to rank below the league median with
less than $30 million in salary-cap space,
and a fresh start might be better for both parties anyway.
This is bold because it leaves the pass rush in dire
straits, but giving big bucks to a soon-to-be 30-year-old Ansah wouldn't be
very Patriot-like for two former New England employees in Quinn and
Patricia.
Look for them to instead use that No. 8 overall pick on a
potential cornerstone edge-rusher.
GREEN
BAY PACKERS RELEASE JIMMY GRAHAM
Less than a year ago, the Green Bay Packers committed an
uncharacteristically bold act by pursuing and handsomely paying veteran tight
end Jimmy Graham.
This year, their only bold act should be to admit they
erred in giving the now-32-year-old a three-year, $30 million contract with $11
million guaranteed.
They should release him.
Swallowing a $7.3 million cap hit won't be easy for
general manager Brian Gutekunst, even if they can spread that expense over
two seasons if they designate the move as a post-June 1 cut. But at the
nine-year mark of his career, the five-time Pro Bowler just isn't worth the
roster spot at $10 million a year. His touchdown total plummeted from 10 with
the Seattle Seahawks in 2017 to just two in 16 games with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in
2018.
The Packers can afford to cut bait, and Gutekunst's
best approach would be to consult with new head coach Matt LaFleur on
which free-agent or draft-bound tight ends would work best in an offense that
is expected to undergo major changes.
HOUSTON
TEXANS SIGN TRENT BROWN
The Houston Texans offensive line has been an easy target
to mock for much of the franchise's 17 years of existence, and there are
excuses to neglect the unit that is in charge of protecting franchise
quarterback Deshaun Watson.
The Texans have to concern themselves with the statuses
of impending free-agent defenders Jadeveon Clowney and Tyrann
Mathieu. But they've got $59 million in cap space,
and they need more proven talent at the tackle positions.
Watson was one of the most frequently pressured NFL
quarterbacks in 2018. Thanks at least partly to horrendous blocking from
disappointing left tackle Julie'n Davenport, the second-year No. 12 overall
pick was sacked a league-high 62 times.
Even if they re-sign Clowney and Mathieu and draft an
offensive lineman early, they should look to add an established blindside protector
with upside and the ability to physically dominate.
That just might be the 6'8", 380-pound, 25-year-old
Trent Brown, who has done a fantastic job of keeping Tom Brady upright during
the New England Patriots' Super Bowl run.
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS SIGN TREY FLOWERS
The Indianapolis Colts have the cap space to
outbid anybody—even the New York Jets—for anybody. Naturally, that has led
to speculation that
they could be in on Le'Veon Bell. But the Colts seemed to realize late last
season that their running game is just fine in the hands of 2017 fourth-round
pick Marlon Mack, especially with Mack and Co. running behind Indy's in vogue
offensive line.
Instead, look for the Colts to make their big splash on
defense.
Coordinator Matt Eberflus' unit was greater than the sum
of its parts in 2018, but it's time for general manager Chris Ballard to
provide Eberflus with even stronger parts. With Jabaal Sheard and several
relatively unknown players leading the charge from the edge, Indy ranked below
the league median in terms of sack rate and total sacks and 29th in adjusted
sack rate at Football
Outsiders.
That's why Ballard could out pay the rest of the league
to steal Trey Flowers from the rival New England Patriots.
The underrated 25-year-old would be a perfect fit for
Indy's defense, and his versatility makes him special. He's a consistently
strong run defender, and his modest sack numbers don't do justice to his
ability to bring pressure.
This makes too much sense.
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS SIGN NICK FOLES
Few would be floored by news that the Jacksonville
Jaguars were giving up on Blake Bortles in favor of Foles, but a major
quarterback swap always requires some bravery and boldness.
That's especially the case because Foles hasn't experienced
success outside Philadelphia. He won a Super Bowl MVP with the Eagles, and he
made a Pro Bowl and a playoff run there in 2013. But he was far from impressive
as a backup with the St. Louis Rams in 2015, and it's fair to point out that
he's never experienced sustained NFL success—even in Philly.
But that shouldn't and won't stop the Jags from throwing
large wads of cash at the 30-year-old, simply because it's time to give up on
Bortles and they need some of that Foles magic dust.
It's possible the no-longer-cap-rich Jags
are outbid in the looming Foles sweepstakes, but the Miami Dolphins are more
likely to go the draft route and, if they don't do the same thing, the Broncos
could prefer a more established vet like Flacco. And beyond that, there aren't
any clear-cut quarterback-needy teams who might pay Foles now to capitalize on
a competitive window.
KANSAS
CITY CHIEFS LET DEE FORD WALK, SIGN RONALD DARBY
It's possible that new Kansas City Chiefs defensive
coordinator Steve Spagnuolo—known partly for his "four aces"
package that featured a quartet of strong pass-rushers with the 2007 New York
Giants—will lobby his new bosses to keep all three of Kansas City's elite defensive
linemen around.
But Justin Houston is already making a
lot of money, and Chris Jones will be due a large payday
after next year.
With that in mind, the Chiefs might want to avoid tagging
or getting into a bidding war to keep Ford, who would be worth more to richer,
more desperate counterparts.
Remember, even with Houston, Jones and Ford all clicking
in 2018, Kansas City's defense ranked 31st in football and couldn't get stops
when it mattered in the playoffs.
The Chiefs defense desperately needs more balance and
could use a top-notch outside cornerback to work next to slot specialist
Kendall Fuller. Impending free-agent Ronald Darby fits that mold, has plenty of
experience at age 25, might be the best corner on the market and would be a
heck of a lot cheaper than Ford.
LOS
ANGELES CHARGERS SIGN NDAMUKONG SUH
You heard it here first: Ndamukong Suh will remain
in Los Angeles in 2019.
But instead of suiting up for the L.A. Rams, Suh just
might wind up making the trek from the Rams' headquarters in Thousand Oaks to
the L.A. Chargers' facility in Costa Mesa.
Suh didn't live up to his $14 million salary with the
Rams in 2018, and the team has a lot of other key contracts to look at. While
the Chargers have less
cap space, they don't have as many pressing in-house concerns. And
considering how badly they could use a strong inside presence to complement
top-tier pass-rushers Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, paying up for Suh makes a
lot of sense.
The Bolts don't have many other holes, but defensive
tackles Brandon Mebane and Darius Philon are both impending free agents
and the team should still have the cap space to add a player like Suh.
LOS
ANGELES RAMS KEEP DANTE FOWLER JR. OVER NDAMUKONG SUH
The Rams could pay through the roof to keep Suh. But they
probably won't be able to retain both him and defensive end Dante Fowler
Jr. And Fowler fills more of a need, considering they've already got Aaron
Donald inside.
So look for the Rams to boldly pick the former over the
latter. After all, they gave up two middle-round draft
picks for Fowler on Oct. 30, and he was the team's best edge-rusher late in the
season and has been the same in the playoffs.
It's been a turbulent ride for the 2015 No. 3 overall
pick, but he's still just 24 years old, and it appears he's finding a groove as
a sack artist.
Suh has the more impressive resume, but Fowler could be
the future (alongside Donald).
MIAMI
DOLPHINS RELEASE RYAN TANNEHILL BUT DON'T SPEND TO REPLACE HIM
It appears the Miami Dolphins are ready to end the Ryan
Tannehill era.
Barry
Jackson of the Miami Herald reported last
month that "the Dolphins are prepared to move on from Tannehill after
seven seasons instead of paying him the $19 million he's owed each of the next
two seasons and carrying a $26.6 million cap hit next season."
None of that money is guaranteed, and Miami could use the
extra salary-cap space.
But don't be shocked if they dump Tannehill and use that
found money on other positions. The Dolphins roster requires a lot of work, and
paying somebody like Flacco or Foles would seem counterintuitive.
Heck, ESPN's Adam
Schefter reported earlier this month that the team is
already so locked into a rebuild that it is eyeing the quarterback class in the 2020 draft.
Canning Tannehill and neglecting to replace him could be
the first step in Miami's quest to tank the 2019 season.
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS SIGN JA'WUAN JAMES AND MITCH MORSE
Bringing in offensive tackle Ja'Wuan James might not
qualify as bold and hiring center Mitch Morse isn't likely to generate
large-font headlines either. But considering the state of their offensive line,
the Minnesota Vikings would send a considerable message if they were to sign
two linemen like James and Morse in March.
I'd expect the Vikings to also be in on Trent Brown, but
because they need help across the line, the likely cheaper James would make a
lot of sense alongside an interior offensive lineman like Morse.
Both are 26 years old. James has generally been a
disappointment as a 2014 first-round pick but hasn't been a bad starter at
right tackle. Morse has been good of late when healthy, but the 2015
second-rounder has missed 14 games the last two seasons.
The potential scenario here is James comes on board to
play right tackle; second-year second-round pick Brian O'Neill competes with
Riley Reiff for the left tackle job; one settles for a swing tackle role; and
Morse battles for positioning inside with Tom Compton, Mike Remmers and Pat
Elflein.
That would give one of the least competent offensive
lines in football a significantly better chance at becoming somewhat reliable
in 2019.
NEW
ENGLAND PATRIOTS SIGN ADAM HUMPHRIES
Considering the state of their wide receivers and tight
ends, the New England Patriots will surely spend time cruising the free-agent
market in search of talent at those positions.
And while it's easy to envision wideouts like John Brown,
Tate and Donte Moncrief having success in New England, impending Tampa Bay
Buccaneers free-agent Adam Humphries feels like he was tailor-made
for Bill Belichick and
the Pats.
Humphries was inspired
by Wes Welker—the original shifty slot receiver the
Patriots stole from another Florida team over a decade ago. He's also shifty,
and he's got sure hands as well as strong route-running skills.
He probably wouldn't be as expensive as those listed
above, mainly because he's yet to put up big numbers while overshadowed in
Tampa. But his productivity has increased steadily during his first four NFL
seasons, and the 26-year-old looks to be on the verge of a breakout.
Would anybody be surprised if that breakout took place
under Belichick in Foxborough?
NEW
ORLEANS SAINTS RE-SIGN TEDDY BRIDGEWATER
Because Drew Brees and even Taysom Hill
get more attention than Teddy Bridgewater on the New Orleans Saints quarterback
depth chart, it's widely assumed that Bridgewater will join his fourth roster
in a 13-month span in March.
But Brees is on the wrong side of 40 and coming off a
poor finish to another non-championship season, while Hill is more of a
specialist who has passing ability. And those realities could be enough to
cause the Saints to pay up for Bridgewater.
New Orleans didn't just trade a third-round pick to the
New York Jets in exchange for Bridgewater and a sixth-rounder in August so the
26-year-old former Pro Bowler could collect dust on the sideline for a few
months and then hit the road. He was acquired as Brees insurance then, and that
shouldn't change merely based on a so-so 23-pass sample in Brees' stead.
Brees had a strong year but posted a mere 84.7 passer
rating during his final four regular-season games and struggled in a home
playoff loss to the Rams. When he went cold down the stretch, so did a Saints
offense that had been on fire. Meanwhile, despite a near-constant presence,
Hill completed just three passes on seven attempts all season.
The Saints are a deep, talented team with a limited
number of key players slated to hit free agency. They don't have much money to
spend, but they can and should devote a good chunk of their salary-cap space to
retaining Bridgewater for at least another year.
NEW
YORK GIANTS SIGN DEVIN FUNCHESS
The New York Giants have a strong connection to the
Carolina Panthers, thanks mainly to the fact Giants general manager Dave
Gettleman ran the Panthers front office from 2013 to 2016.
That means he drafted wide receiver Devin Funchess 41st
overall in 2015, and now the 6'4" receiver is scheduled to hit the open
market after he scored 21 touchdowns in four seasons with the Panthers.
Regardless of whether they keep Odell Beckham Jr., the
Giants could use another target for Eli Manning. And while Funchess might not
be a superstar, the Michigan product has a high ceiling and has yet to turn
25.
He'd immediately become a starter on the outside and
could make it easier for Gettleman to consider shopping Beckham on the trade
market. And the Giants have more money to spend than the Panthers, who might
not prioritize Funchess with DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel and Greg Olsen already
on board.
NEW
YORK JETS DON'T SIGN LE'VEON BELL
The New York Jets have for quite some time been
favored to land superstar running back Le'Veon Bell in free
agency. With that in mind, their bold move would be resisting the temptation to
send a Brinks truck to Bell's South Florida residence. And general
manager Mike Maccagnan will exercise that discipline.
It's not as though Maccagnan can't afford Bell, and
the three-time Pro Bowler would certainly bolster support for 21-year-old
signal-caller Sam Darnold. But new quarterback-oriented Jets head coach Adam
Gase will likely be more concerned with improving the protection and receiving
options for Darnold, who wasn't badly supported by backs Isaiah Crowell
and Bilal Powell as a rookie in 2018.
Instead, Darnold would benefit greatly from another
starting-caliber receiver opposite Robby Anderson, and the entire Jets
offensive line is in need of revamping following a brutal year for that
unit.
So look for the Jets to spend their money there and/or on
a defense that surrendered the fourth-worst points-per-game total in the NFL in
2018. And look for Bell to go elsewhere.
OAKLAND
RAIDERS SIGN LE'VEON BELL
Bell will go elsewhere, as in Oakland, where the Raiders
seem just dumb enough to overcommit to an aging player with baggage at a
non-premium position. Why will the Raiders pay the 26-year-old Bell?
2. Because Gruden might figure he can fill other holes
with his three first-round draft picks
3. Because Gruden is the same guy who figured Khalil Mack
was expendable but Doug Martin and Jordy Nelson were smart investments
beyond their primes
4. Because they're looking to make a splash before they
move to Las Vegas in 2020, and Bell is the biggest name on the free-agent
market
Of course, the Raiders also need help at running back.
And while there are more fiscally responsible ways to approach that problem,
this team has lost the benefit of the doubt.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES SIGN KAREEM HUNT
Kareem Hunt is a 23-year-old running back with strong
pass-catching skills and a Pro Bowl as well as a rushing crown on his resume.
So even though Hunt is likely
facing league-imposed discipline after TMZ released disturbing
video in late November that shows him shoving and
kicking Abigail Ottinger, the reality is he's likely to find an NFL job in
2019.
The Philadelphia Eagles happen to be in need of a
top-tier running back to better support Carson Wentz and the passing game, and
they've already been linked to Bell, per
Schefter (via NBC
Sports Philadelphia). But Hunt will probably be cheaper than
Bell as a result of those off-field concerns, which could cause the Eagles to
bite.
The Chiefs released Hunt as soon as the video emerged,
but its possible Kansas City head coach Andy Reid could endorse Hunt to former
colleagues Doug Pederson and Howie Roseman in Philadelphia.
Of course, it's also possible Reid could tell the Eagles
to stay away, or that he'll say nothing at all.
Regardless, there's a clear connection between the staffs
in Kansas City and Philly, and Pro Football Talk's Mike
Florio listed the Eagles as a candidate to claim Hunt off
waivers in December.
Until the team states it won't go there, this is a
potential bold move for the 2019 Eagles.
SAN
FRANCISCO 49ERS SIGN BRYCE CALLAHAN
Many of us spent the first wave of last year's free-agent
period waiting for the San Francisco 49ers to sign a big-time pass-catcher. And
while Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson, Paul Richardson and Taylor
Gabriel jumped to new teams with shiny new contracts in tow, the 49ers held
back.
Considering the way tight end George Kittle emerged in
2018, there's little reason to expect San Francisco to suddenly go that route
in 2019. And even if it does, it's possible that happens via trade (See: Brown,
Antonio and Beckham Jr., Odell).
Instead, look for the Niners to bolster the secondary
with a cornerback who can do a better job of handling opposing receivers in an
NFC West that is loaded with good ones. And while they'd probably prefer a
strong outside presence like Pierre Desir of the Colts, Indy has the money
to keep Desir, and the 49ers could probably save a few bucks with underrated
slot specialist Bryce Callahan.
"Slot cornerbacks rarely get paid in
free agency, but that doesn’t mean they’re not valuable. In fact, our data
found that targeting the slot was actually more valuable than receivers split
wide. Over the last two seasons, targeting Callahan in the slot has netted
opposing quarterbacks a passer rating of 74.3 (2017) and 78.9 (2018)—both
top-five figures each season."
Have fun with that, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Doug
Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Larry Fitzgerald.
SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS SIGN LANDON COLLINS
And there's your Earl Thomas replacement for the Seattle
Seahawks.
The Seahawks look as though they'll lose Thomas, as it's
clear they were never willing to pay up for an injury-prone safety approaching
his 30th birthday.
Landon Collins doesn't have the same resume and thus
won't be quite as expensive, but he's only 25 years old and missed just one
career game before a shoulder injury prematurely ended his fourth NFL season in
December.
The only teams with more cap space than
the Seahawks that might be in on Collins are the Bills and Raiders, but Seattle
is probably a more enticing landing spot for the three-time Pro Bowler. And you
know the Seahawks will be motivated to bring in an impact defensive back as
part of their attempt to rebuild the Legion of Boom.
If they swing and miss on Collins, expect them to make
runs at Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and/or Lamarcus Joyner.
TAMPA
BAY BUCCANEERS SIGN RODGER SAFFOLD
Contain yourself, Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans, because you
might get a new interior offensive lineman! He's 30, he almost made a Pro Bowl
once and PFF's
Michael Renner recently raved that he "may not be
an elite guard, but he’s been in the tier below for quite some time."
That's right, it's Rodger Saffold!
OK, so maybe this year's bold move for the Bucs will come
in the draft, or maybe it already came when they filled their head-coaching
vacancy with Bruce Arians. But this is as close as cap-strapped Tampa
Bay might come to making a splash in free agency, especially because the team's
core is already in place.
They've got supposed franchise quarterback Jameis
Winston, who's entering a make-or-break year; they've got several high-quality
young pass-catchers; and they've got a couple of talented offensive tackles, a
strong left guard in Ali Marpet and a highly-paid
center in Ryan Jensen. They spent a fortune on the defense
last offseason, and while there's still room for improvement there—especially
in the secondary—you'd think Arians would push for at least one bona fide
addition on his preferred side of the ball.
The versatile Saffold could be that guy. He's been
extremely reliable in Los Angeles and has performed well down the stretch
during the Rams' Super Bowl run. One more solid performance Sunday could make it
even tougher for the Rams to retain him, and the Bucs make a lot of sense as a
potential poacher.
TENNESSEE
TITANS SIGN BRANDON GRAHAM
When Brandon Graham was last a free agent in 2015, the
Tennessee Titans reportedly expressed
interest in him. A lot has changed since, but we're
expecting the Titans to once again chase Graham and land him this time
around.
In 2015, Graham was coming off a strong season in which
he established himself as an emerging pass-rusher at outside linebacker in Bill
Davis' 3-4 defense. He's been back on the line of late, but Titans defensive
coordinator Dean Pees would probably love to throw Graham into the mix with
Derrick Morgan, especially with running mate Brian Orakpo
retiring after 10 NFL seasons.
That is if they retain Morgan, who is 30 and set to hit
free agency after an abysmal season.
Regardless, Tennessee needs an established pass-rusher to
chase Luck and Watson (and Foles?) in the AFC South. He might not be a
big-number sack guy, but he's earned "a top-15 pass-rush grade among
qualifying edge defenders each of the last four seasons," according
to PFF.
He could be just what the doctor ordered, even if on a
four-year delay.
WASHINGTON
REDSKINS SIGN ANDY DALTON
We're boldly predicting that the Bengals will release
Dalton, and the Washington Redskins make a lot of sense as a bold landing spot
for the Red Rifle.
After all, the Redskins might need quarterback insurance.
Veteran starter Alex Smith suffered a gruesome leg injury in November,
which led to multiple
surgeries, a four-week hospital stay and plenty of justified doubt
about the 34-year-old's future.
And Dalton would be an ideal stopgap who would probably
be down with a short, prove-it contract in a new environment. He would suit the
Washington offense, and Redskins head coach Jay Gruden was Cincinnati's offensive
coordinator for the first three years of Dalton's career.
It's far-fetched considering that Dalton remains under
contract with the Bengals, but crazier developments have happened in the always
wild NFL offseason.
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