PREVIEWING THE
DIVISIONAL ROUND MATCHUPS
It's Nick Foles'
league until somebody beats him. Those are the rules and it's up to the Saints to
change them, less than two months after the Saints appeared
to end Philadelphia's season with a 48-7 blowout
back in Week 11.
Wild Card Weekend was full of winners, like Foles, who got
there the hard way. The Colts have
been in playoff mode for months, with one loss since mid-October. The Chargers are
8-1 on the road, although it feels like they've played all 17 games on the
road. The Cowboys have
won eight of nine games since talk of Jason Garrett's job security hit its
nadir at midseason, with all eight wins coming in one-score games. Who is to
say these teams can't continue to beat the odds?
More than any season in recent memory, all eight remaining
teams have a legitimate chance to win the Super Bowl. That should make the
Divisional Round delicious, so let's look at three things to watch in each
matchup before breaking down what we know and what we don't after the first
weekend of playoff football.
TV: NBC
(1) There will be a lot of talk about the last
time the AFC Andy’s, Reid and Luck, faced off in the playoffs. While
these Colts and Chiefs teams
bear little resemblance to the ones that met in the Wild Card Round five years
ago -- when Indy overcame a
28-point third quarter deficit -- the weight of Chiefs playoff
history looms over Arrowhead Stadium.
That loss to the Colts ended
Reid's first season in Kansas City, and the Chiefs have lost three more
painfully close playoff games in the four seasons since. The Chiefs have
improbably lost six straight home playoff games dating back to 1995, including
each of the last two seasons. This Chiefs squad
is unquestionably the best one yet with a historically good offense led by its 23-year-old
MVP-to-be Patrick
Mahomes. But the surface parallels between this team and Reid's 2013
and 2017 groups -- defined by scorching hot starts and sluggish finishes --
will be hard for worrying Chiefs fans
to ignore. The Colts are
10-1 over their last 11 games and the Chiefs are
7-4, so this isn't your average No. 6 seed vs. No. 1 seed matchup.
(2) Chiefs safety Eric Berry is
an X-factor on a defense that has struggled to find the right mix in the
secondary. Berry, who missed the first 13 games of the season, gave the team a
moderate boost after taking 99 snaps in Weeks 15-16, but missed the season
finale after a recurrence of his foot injury. Reid was still scrambling to
settle on a rotation at cornerback late in the season, inserting undrafted
rookie Charvarius
Ward into a starting role over Orlando
Scandrick in Week 16, where Ward figures to stay. The Colts'
creative scheme can test the depth of any secondary, as Houston learned in the Wild
Card Round. No one schemes receivers open right now like Colts coach
Frank Reich.
(3) Indianapolis' defense has been greater than
the sum of its parts all season. The Colts don't
have a natural pass rusher, so they need to blitz often to create pressure and
play excellent fundamental team defense. They also haven't faced any team
remotely like the Chiefs.
The Colts'
defense faced the easiest opposing slate of offenses according to
Football Outsiders, with the Giants being the toughest
matchup they've faced since they started winning in Week 7. To put it another
way: The Colts will
need to score more than 21 points in Kansas City.
TV: FOX
(1) Late during Dallas' impressive
slugfest against the
Seahawks on Saturday, FOX analyst Troy Aikman noted that the Cowboys were
ready to go into their "four-minute offense" to drain the clock. It
could be argued that's their only offense.
This is a matchup between two of the league's premier
running backs, who are utilized in very different ways. The Cowboys are
happy to run Ezekiel
Elliott to slow the pace of the game and limit possessions, while
the Rams love
to use tempo and will go away from Todd Gurley entirely
if they don't like the matchup. Gurley hasn't played since Week 15 because of a
knee injury and the matchup on Saturday night might dictate lower usage early
in the game. The Seahawks
repeatedly ran into the brick wall of Dallas' Jaylon Smith and Leighton
Vander Esch, something that Rams coach
Sean McVay will try to avoid.
(2) Jared Goff and
the Rams'
offensive line bounced back in the final two weeks of the season after a
mini-slump in the first half of December. While the team misses slot
receiver Cooper Kupp,
Goff's accuracy is the most obvious edge for the Rams in
this game when compared with his 2016 draft classmate, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.
The Rams will
want to force Prescott to beat them with his arm, while Los Angeles should
enter the game expecting to lean on Goff.
(3) I'm curious to see how many Cowboys fans
fill the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday. The Rams have
done a terrific job in a short time rebuilding their fanbase in Los Angeles,
but the Cowboys
should have plenty of support not far from where they pack crowds during
training camp in Oxnard, California. I also wonder if field conditions will be
a problem. Evening Rams games,
including last year's playoff loss
to the Falcons, have been marred by players slipping like crazy on
dewy Los Angeles nights. With all that being said, a game of this magnitude
being played in Los Angeles was exactly what the NFL was hoping for when
the Rams announced
their move west three years ago.
TV: CBS
(1) A lot has changed since Philip Rivers and
LaDainian Tomlinson brought a feisty, banged-up Chargers
squad to Foxborough for the AFC
Championship Game in 2008. This Chargers team
has a much better chance at winning. There are a lot of ways to analyze the
matchup, but the best way to beat the Patriots figures to be with vertical
passing and a strong pass rush. The Chargers have
assets that can dominate in both areas, even if Rivers hasn't been at his best
over the last three weeks. Los Angeles got incredible
penetration on Sunday against a strong Baltimore offensive line
without having to blitz, largely because Melvin Ingram dominated.
Ingram and Joey Bosa will
be difficult for the Patriots'
tackles, especially left tackle Trent Brown,
to handle.
(2) While the Chargers have
been road warriors all season -- beating the Seahawks, Steelers, Chiefs and Raven
sat their place -- the Patriots were
the NFL's only undefeated home team. It's where all the Patriots'
best performances came, especially on the ground, where they excel running
behind their interior linemen. The game plan figures to revolve more around
the Patriots'
running backs and occasional trick plays than usual, a sign that Tom Brady and
his receivers aren't playing at the same level.
(3) If the "Around the NFL Podcast"
and basically anyone I meet is any indication, America is over the Patriots.
It's hard to imagine many fans outside of New England rooting for an eighth
straight AFC Championship Game appearance, especially when Rivers has been to
only one. Rivers provides a perfect sentimental bandwagon to jump on. He
shouldn't need a win like this for people to recognize he's an all-time great,
but it sure wouldn't hurt.
TV: FOX
(1) Neither team has been the same since they
faced off in Week 11, when the Saints flexed
a little extra in a 48-7
victory. New Orleans hasn't topped 370 yards in the six games since,
getting out-gained in four of them, relying far more on its defense and situational
football to close out the season. The Eagles have
transformed since that game, too, and it's not just about the quarterback.
The Eagles'
defensive line closed out the season playing as well as any unit and the
offensive line has done a terrific job protecting Nick Foles.
(2) If the Eagles'
defense has a weakness on paper, its secondary depth. Rasul Douglas, Avonte Maddox,
Cre'Von LeBlanc and Tre Sullivan have
all stepped up, but a team with a surplus of receiving options should be able
to create mismatches against Philadelphia. The larger question is whether
the Saints are
that team. The return of Ted
Ginn helps, but receiving production outside of Thomas dried up
late in the year.
(3) Drew Brees turns
40 years old before the NFC Championship Game. After spending too much of this
decade mired in 7-9 mediocrity, no one needs to tell Brees and Coach Sean
Payton that opportunities like having home-field advantage may never come
around again. The Saints have
the best backfield combination of the Payton era and the best defense of the
Payton era. If not this season, then when?
What I know after Wild Card Weekend
(1) The Bears have
the right head coach: Matt Nagy's ability to coax terrific production
from Mitchell
Trubisky was highlighted even in the Bears'
loss. I was particularly impressed by the Bears staying
true to their principles and aggressive in their play-calling in the fourth
quarter, when Trubisky led them to nine points that should have
been 13 points. I also loved the mature way Nagy spoke about the
loss after the game, showing the kind of leadership that should earn him
loyalty in the Bears'
locker room.
(2) The Texans have
more offseason questions than any playoff team: With cornerback Kareem
Jackson and safety Tyrann
Mathieu headed for free agency, they have to rebuild their
entire, faulty secondary. Jackson enjoyed a great season but he's turning 31
years old this offseason. Longtime mainstay Johnathan
Joseph, who struggled Saturday, turns 35. Jadeveon
Clowney is due to hit the market (more on that later).
The Texans gave
up on the running game late in the first quarter against the Colts and
also need to fix their offensive line, an issue that has plagued the Bill
O'Brien administration. The franchise is in good hands with Deshaun
Watson, DeAndre
Hopkins and J.J. Watt,
but this was the most top-heavy team to make the tournament.
(3) Seahawks coach
Pete Carroll is not going to get rid of offensive coordinator Brian
Schottenheimer: No amount of angry Seahawks fans'
tweets is going to change this. The Seahawks'
approach of run-run-Russell against the Cowboys was
hardly out of step with the rest of the season. It didn't work because Seattle
incurred too many negative runs and Schottenheimer didn't adjust, calling run
after run on first down even in the second half.
This is the brand of football that Carroll appears to enjoy
best, even if it fails to take advantage of the offense's best players: Russell
Wilson, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett.
(4) The Seahawks'
front office will be busy: Schottenheimer should stay, but this will
be another offseason of transition in Seattle. I count at least seven starters
slated for free agency: safety Earl Thomas,
linebacker K.J. Wright,
defensive end Frank Clark,
defensive tackle Shamar
Stephen, cornerback Justin
Coleman and starting guards D.J. Fluker and J.R. Sweezy.
THINGS I DON'T KNOW AFTER WILD CARD WEEKEND
(1) How John Harbaugh's next week plays out: Harbaugh's
future should be in Baltimore. There is no other conclusion to
draw when the team itself announces he'll be there in 2019 and that the two
sides are working on a
contract extension. ProFootballTalk report of interest in Harbaugh from the Broncos and Dolphins,
however, reminds me of how Saints coach
Sean Payton parlayed similar interest into a contract extension. Following
the Ravens'
defeat Sunday, Harbaugh was asked if he expected to stay.
"There's a Bible verse that basically says, 'Make no
oath.' No one can say what tomorrow is going to bring, other than
God-willing," Harbaugh said. "... We'll see what God has in store but
I have every expectation, every plan to be here as long as the Ravens want
me here, and I believe they want me here."
So you're saying there's a chance?
(2) How Jadeveon
Clowney will react if he receives the franchise tag: Most
players don't like being hit with the franchise tag and that's probably Clowney's
fate this offseason. It's hard to imagine Houston coming up with the
requisite long-term contract to satisfy Clowney by early March, but the team
would be foolish to pass on one more year of Clowney and Watt together. Saturday's
no-show by the entire Texans squad would be too much of an anticlimax to
say goodbye on, right?
(3) Whether Bruce Arians and Jameis
Winston are the right match: All signs point to
Arians becoming the next head
coach of the Bucs, largely based on his relationship with Bucs GM
Jason Licht dating back to their days together in Arizona. Arians
"retired" from the Cardinals last
year before spending a season in a CBS broadcast booth with Greg Gumbel and
Trent Green.
From one angle, this looks like a desperate quick-fix effort
by Licht to save his job. With Winston on a one-year
contract and Arians possibly a short-term fit because of previous health issues, this is a regime that could be on the
hot seat from Day 1. From another angle, Arians' track record with quarterbacks
that can push the ball down the field is proven. After completing his third
season in the top 10 of yards per attempt and interceptions,
it's not like Winston needs to be told "No risk it, no biscuit."
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