The playoff field is finally set. Here's your guide to
everything you need to know about the 12 teams vying to win Super Bowl LIII.
The Minnesota
Vikings, Pittsburgh
Steelers and Tennessee
Titans just barely missed the playoffs. That's what actually
happened. But had this one little thing gone a different way, it might have won
one more game. And had it gone that alternative route, you might be preparing
for next weekend's watch party right now. If only.
Each of those three teams that came up just shy of the
postseason has at least one of those plays it wants to take back. These are the
moments fans try hard to forget but always remember.
Let's take a look bad at the season-altering plays from
weeks earlier.
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS (9-6-1)
THE PLAY: Fourth-down touchdown allowed at Oakland
Raiders(Week 14)
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-68 percent
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-68 percent
Any loss at the hands of the 2018 Raiders hurts quite a bit.
But when a team was just one play away from avoiding disaster at Oakland and
ended up as close to the playoffs as the Steelers did, there's an extra sting.
The Steelers took a four-point lead over Oakland with just
under 3 minutes to go. But that put the ball in Derek Carr's
hands, and the Raiders quarterback marched his team down the field and deep
inside Pittsburgh territory. Pittsburgh forced a fourth-and-goal from the
6-yard line with 25 seconds to go, but Carr hit an open Derek Carrier on
the goal line for what ended up being the winning score.
Ben
Roethlisberger did lead the Steelers down the field and set
up Chris Boswellfor
a 40-yard field goal try in the game's final seconds, but the kick was no good.
At the time it didn't seem quite the problem it ultimately
became. Even following the loss, the Steelers still had a 73 percent chance to
reach the postseason. But then again, a victory that Sunday and the Steelers
are looking ahead to a January matchup.
TENNESSEE TITANS
(9-7)
THE PLAY: Failed two-point conversion vs. Los Angeles
Chargers(Week 7)
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-50 percent
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-50 percent
Of course we can look at the Week 17 win-and-in matchup with
the Colts as a whole here, but if one play had broken right for Tennessee weeks
earlier, perhaps it wouldn't have mattered.
Down by seven over in London, Marcus
Mariota led the Titans on a 13-play, 89-yard drive before
throwing a 1-yard touchdown to Luke Stocker to
bring Tennessee within one. With only 31 seconds left in regulation, coach Mike
Vrabel, hoping to wrap up a victory and fly back across the pond with a winning
record, elected to try to take care of the game in a single play.
Taywan Taylor ran
an in-breaking route on the two-point try, but cornerback Michael Davis was
on his tail and there was a safety in zone coverage underneath. So Mariota had
to fit the ball through a tiny window. But ultimately, there actually was no
window at all. Davis closed the gap and positioned himself between Taylor and
the ball, and Mariota's pass ended up high and incomplete. Here's a look at the
play from NFL Next Gen Stats animation:
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
(8-7-1)
The Vikings led the Saints by three points with 1:11
remaining in the first half of a Week 8 contest when an ordinary quick pass
to Adam Thielen proved
costly. The star receiver caught the ball and got to New Orleans' 14-yard line
before he fumbled on a hit by Saints linebacker Alex Anzalone.
It was recovered by Marshon
Lattimore, who ran back 54 yards to the Vikings' 33-yard line.
Vikings receiver Laquon
Treadwell made the situation worse by throwing his helmet,
prompting a 15-yard flag after the play and putting Drew Brees'
offense on the Minnesota 18-yard line with almost a minute to play in the half.
The Saints scored a touchdown two plays later and went on to win the game
30-20.
Entering that week, the Vikings had a 68 percent chance to
reach the playoffs; that number dropped to 46 percent following the loss.
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