QB BATTLES YOUNG AND OLD, AND OF COURSE, NICK FOLES
The wild-card round provided football fans with an
interesting mix of games. Indianapolis was dominant, the Cowboys outslugged the
Seahawks in a battle of mirror-image teams, the Chargers utilized a unique
defensive game plan to befuddle Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and Nick Foles
did it again — albeit with an “assist” from Cody Parkey, whose name is now
etched next to Blair Walsh and Scott Norwood in an unfortunate pantheon.
The divisional round promises several intriguing matchups,
including some potentially explosive quarterback duels. Andrew Luck takes on
Patrick Mahomes in a battle of young(er) guns, Philip Rivers faces off against
Tom Brady in a duel of aging stars, Dak Prescott tries to get the Cowboys back
within a win of the Super Bowl, while Jared Goff and the Rams try to get right,
and the reigning Super Bowl MVP, Nick Foles, takes on Drew Brees, arguably the
league's best quarterback this season. Oh, and Indianapolis and Philadelphia
are both bidding to become the first No. 6 seeds to make it to the conference
title game since the Jets and Packers did it in 2010.
Many call it the best weekend the NFL has to offer, and for
good reason. Let's take a look at the games.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT
LOS ANGELES RAMS, SATURDAY, 8:15 P.M. ET (FOX)
No one felt sympathy for Dallas or its fans when the team was 3-5 and Jason
Garrett was possibly one loss from the unemployment line —that’s just one of
the consequences of being America’s Team. Similarly no one outside the Cowboys
fan base is probably too happy to see them in this position: two wins from a
Super Bowl appearance. What has gone right in big D? Mostly, the team has
started winning close games, and Amari Cooper’s presence has allowed the
passing game to come up to a much more respectable standard, if not outright
flourish. The Cowboys stifled Seattle’s vaunted running game in the wild-card
round, and now their challenge will be slowing down a high-flying, multifaceted
Rams attack. Dallas must force Los Angeles to go up and down the field and not
take yards in chunks, and being sure with tackling is one way to help that
cause. In that sense, inside linebacker Leighton Vander Esch might be the most
important player on the field for the Cowboys.
The Rams need to figure out which team they are. Are they
the group that went toe-to-toe with the Chiefs in the NFL’s game of the year?
Or are they the group that has looked human at times over the last month or so?
Todd Gurley hasn’t played in about a month, so his knee should be as right as
it can possibly be. L.A. will need all of his versatility to combat Dallas’
stout defense. Speaking of defense, Los Angeles’ is not the greatest group, at
least statistically, but it does have Aaron Donald, and that might be enough.
Donald has been a machine, registering 20.5 sacks on the season despite not
picking up his first until Week 4. Despite his brilliance, the Rams rank only
20th in points allowed per game. That said, they’re as healthy
as they can possibly be, and if Donald can disrupt Dak Prescott and force some
uncomfortable throws, there is a good chance L.A. can generate turnovers — and
with them a victory.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, SATURDAY, 4:35 P.M. ET (NBC)
Andrew Luck took no prisoners against the Texans, who had no answers for
Indy's fast start. Luck was sharp, in command and efficient in a first half
that saw the Colts build a 21-0 lead after 30 minutes. He will need to be even
better against the Chiefs because they will not be stifled offensively the way
Houston was. Marlon Mack was the other story for the Colts against the Texans,
and perhaps the bigger one. He shredded Houston's defense for 148 yards on 24
carries and provided the Colts with much-needed balance. Against a Kansas City
defense that wants to come after the quarterback, that kind of balance can be a
lethal counterpunch. Luck, Mack and the entire offense will need to be great,
but so will Darius Leonard, Kenny Moore and the Colts defense, which was
particularly stingy against the pass this season, ranking third in the league
in passing touchdowns allowed.
Kansas City could be the boogeyman of the AFC playoffs, if
it can simply take care of the football and find a little bit of defense along
the way. A 9-1 start gave way to a 3-3 finish, with one particularly troubling
trend: The Chiefs kept losing to good teams and beating bad ones. Unfortunately
for them, the playoffs, by definition, are filled with the former and absent
the latter. Kansas City's defense has been largely awful, despite racking up 52
sacks on the season. It might be better off hanging back and forcing Andrew
Luck to sustain long drives as opposed to coming after him, given Indy's
success at preventing sacks. The Chiefs need two things to secure a victory: no
playoff jitters for Patrick Mahomes and the legitimate threat of a running game
from Damien Williams.
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS, SUNDAY, 1:05 P.M. ET (CBS)
No team was more impressive last week, at least for 52
minutes or so, than the Chargers. Los Angeles went “small” at linebacker to
solve Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ run-heavy attack, and the Chargers
dominated until they relaxed things late in the game. Philip Rivers and the
offense weren’t as outwardly impressive, but they wore down the league’s best
scoring defense, and their playmakers showed up when it counted. The Chargers
have some of their swagger back and look more like the team that was talked
about as arguably the AFC’s most complete during the latter portion of the
season. Los Angeles has the star power on both sides of the ball to defeat New
England. Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen
are better than any quintet New England can muster. The only defined advantage
that the Pats have is at quarterback, and that is based more on reputation than
actual production this year. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: If the
Chargers play to their potential, they’ll find themselves in the AFC
championship game. That’s the scary part.
Rumors of New England’s demise were greatly exaggerated, and
they were entirely based on the Pats’ play away from Foxborough. Tom Brady and
Co. are a different team at home, where they’ve won 15 straight. That alone
makes things a tall order for the Chargers. The running game is a good
barometer for New England’s fortunes. If the Pats crack triple digits on the
ground, they’re unbeaten this year. All five of their losses have seen them
fail to run the ball effectively and become one-dimensional. Part of that is a
function of playing from ahead, but part of it is also a philosophical
commitment to that aspect of the game. The more the Pats can be two-dimensional
on offense, the better chance they have of making it 16 in a row at home. Oh,
and there’s also the matter of them having Brady. With all the talk about the
new kids on the block at the position and aging veterans having great years,
like Rivers and Drew Brees, and Nick Foles just, well, existing, it’s worth
remembering that there’s only one Tom Brady, and he’s still going to have his
say.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, SUNDAY, 4:40 P.M. ET (FOX)
Does Nick Foles have some sort of special power? Is he the ultimate
playoff/big-game quarterback? Is there a Nick Foles Effect, wherein he starts to
play very well, and the Eagles’ opponents crumble? The only thing we know about
him is that the Eagles don’t lose in the post-season when he is under center,
and he’s the most interesting player left in these playoffs. The question of
whether or not he can do the seemingly impossible and lead Philly to
back-to-back titles will go a long way toward being answered in this game. New
Orleans is the best team left of the final eight, and the Saints pummeled the
Eagles 48-7 in Week 11. But those were the Carson Wentz Eagles, and while Wentz
is an objectively better player than Foles — I think — there’s something
different about this Philadelphia team. Alshon Jeffery is more dangerous,
Fletcher Cox is a force on the inside, and chances are that even if New Orleans
wins, it won’t be easy.
If the Saints run the ball the way they’re capable, are
opportunistic in the passing game and basically play like the team they’ve been
all year, they’ll punch their ticket to the NFC championship game. It’s pretty
simple, really. The only area where the Saints have been vulnerable is in the
defensive secondary, which happens to be the one place where the Eagles are
best positioned to hurt them. Cameron Jordan will be key to making Foles’ life
difficult, and if the Saints can stop the Eagles from running the football —
very possible, given their second-ranked rush defense — they should be able to
score enough that the Eagles simply can’t keep up. The one thing that New
Orleans doesn’t want this game to be when the fourth quarter starts is one
score or less. Even if the Saints are up, there will be the creeping feeling
that Philadelphia will pull out a win, somehow, some way. The Saints should
win, and comfortably. All they have to do is play their game.
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