AMERICAN LEAGUE 2019 SEASON PREVIEW

HOUSTON ASTROS 

2018 Record: 103-59 (1st in AL West)

2018: Payroll: $163,524,216 (9th in MLB)

Projected 2019 Lineup

1. OF George Springer, .263/.354/.460, 3.9 fWAR
2. 3B Alex Bregman, .279/.370/.494, 5.4 fWAR
3. 2B Jose Altuve, .303/.368/.460, 4.6 fWAR
4. SS Carlos Correa, .262/.352/.466, 4.3 fWAR
5. OF Michael Brantley, .282/.344/.445, 2.2 fWAR
6. 1B Yulieski Gurriel, .283/.320/.437, 0.7 fWAR
7. OF Josh Reddick, .262/.330/.424, 1.3 fWAR
8. DH Tyler White, .249/.329/.436, 1.1 fWAR
9. C Robinson Chirinos, .201/.297/.380 1.1 fWAR

Projected 2019 Rotation

1. Justin Verlander, 202 IP/3.37 ERA/1.07 WHIP, 5.0 fWAR
2. Gerrit Cole, 196 IP/3.49 ERA/1.13 WHIP, 4.5 fWAR
3. Collin McHugh, 151 IP/4.29 ERA/1.29 WHIP, 1.7 fWAR
4. Wade Miley, 105 IP/4.54 ERA/1.45 WHIP, 0.7 fWAR
5. Brad Peacock, 77 IP/3.79 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 0.8 fWAR
6. Forrest Whitley, 46 IP/4.59 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

The 2017 World Champions did not make any big splashes this winter, but coming off 101 and 103-win seasons the last two years, they didn’t really need any major upgrades. The rotation has the familiar dominant duo at the top of Verlander and Cole, but there are question marks beyond them. They signed Wade Miley to a 1 year/4.5 million dollar deal. He pitched to a seemingly excellent 2.57 ERA but had an xFIP nearly 2 runs higher at 4.30. It still led to an fWAR of 1.5 in just 80 innings, but Miley has yet to prove to be a consistently reliable pitcher since his excellent rookie year way back in 2012. Catcher had been a bit of a weakness in this loaded lineup the last few seasons, but Robinson Chirinos was signed to a 1 year/5.75 million dollar contract. He is turning 35 this year, but he’ll give Houston some competence at a very weak offensive position in baseball. Dallas Keuchel is still a free agent and a mutual reunion may make sense for both sides. Aledmys Díaz was an All-Star his rookie season in 2016 and has been an above average offensive player when given substantial playing time. He should provide solid infield depth with a career 109 OPS+, particularly with José Altuve and Carlos Correa coming off less than healthy seasons. By far their biggest move of the winter, and one of my personal favorite moves by any team, was their signing of Michael Brantley to a 2 year/32 million dollar deal. Brantley missed essentially all of 2016 and half of 2017, but he bounced back in a big way in 2018 to post a 124 WRC+ and 3.5 fWAR. Brantley is one of the best hitters for average in the game and one of the most fundamentally sound player in the league when he’s on the field. While not a huge part of his game, he has stolen 62 bases in the roughly 3.5 seasons worth of game he’s played since 2014. This amounts to about 18 a year at an astonishing 91% success rate. Brantley can also make contact: in his last 3 healthy seasons he has had a single digit strikeout percentage to go along with his solid walk rate.

SEASON PREVIEW

When taking into account their additions and subtractions this offseason, I’d say the Astros got very slightly worse. In their case, this “regression” would mean not passing the 100 wins benchmark they’ve hit the past two years. The lineup is what makes the Astros the Astros, as they have 3 guys who have MVP potential in Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. George Springer and Michael Brantley can easily make the All-Star team, and Tyler White didn’t make the team last year, he sure played like one down the stretch in 2018. When Josh Reddick and Yulieski Gurriel are your 7th and 8th best hitters, you have a pretty good offense. The Astros led the league in runs scored in 2017 and with injuries last year they went all the way back to the 5th best offense in baseball. Even when Correa, Springer, and Altuve weren’t playing at 100%, the Astros still had a very good offense. With some slightly improved health, along with a healthy Michael Brantley and a full year of Tyler White, this group should return to its 2017 dominance.

Justin Verlander continues to defy the odds and remains a Cy Young candidate going into his age 36 season. Gerrit Cole is much younger and almost as good, as he is one of the best number 2 starters in baseball. Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock were effective as starters in the past for the Astros and were quality relievers in 2018. They return to the rotation in 2019 and there is no reason to believe they will not continue to be effective. Miley concerns me as he has not posted quality numbers in a full season since 2014 but he should be fine as a No. 5 with an offense this good. Keep an eye on Forrest Whitley as a potential wildcard (more on him later). The Astros had the best starting rotation in baseball last year, and though they might take a slight step back this year Cole and Verlander alone make this a very formidable unit.

The Astros arguably had the best bullpen in 2018, and the group is mostly the same. They do not have a huge name like an Aroldis Chapman or Josh Hader. Instead, they boast a collection of very good guys who do their jobs led by Will Harris, Héctor Rondón, and Roberto Osuna. Osuna figures to be the closer again, and from a talent-only perspective he is a very valuable asset to this group. McHugh and Peacock leaving the bullpen hurts, but they are both more valuable in the rotation without Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers.

As a whole, the Astros pitching is likely to regress, mostly because there is nowhere to go but down. The offense should counter this by regaining their 2017 form if they get 600 plate appearances apiece from their 4 homegrown stars in Correa, Altuve, Springer, and Bregman. Really, the Astros’ biggest mistake last year was being good at the same time as the historically great Boston Red Sox. While the Red Sox are not going anywhere, some regression is expected of them since almost everything went right for them in 2018. The Astros had a decent number of things go wrong last year, but their talent is so overwhelming that they still won 100 games and made the ALCS. The American League is a 3 team heavyweight race of the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros (sorry Cleveland, you don’t make this group). While Oakland yet posted a magical season in 2018, 97 wins is unlikely for them to replicate. The division should be the Astros’ to lose for the 3rd straight year, and this year should be even easier than last. I hate the expression “championship or bust,” especially in baseball, but it does feel like that is the case while these young talented position players are still under team-friendly deals.

Predicted Record: 99-63

Player to Watch: George Springer

Is George Springer the best player on the Astros? Not a chance. He is probably not even in the top 5 if we’re including pitchers, but that says much more about this team than Springer because he oozes talent. The 2017 World Series MVP seems to get lost in the shuffle amongst his teammates. Springer had 2 excellent seasons in 2016 and 2017, but was just pretty good in 2018 with a 2.9 fWAR. He’ll be forced to play centerfield almost exclusively this year with Reddick and Brantley penciled in the corners. He is better in right field but he can hold his own in center. He has done a nice job reducing his strikeout rate the last couple years after that being a clear problem. I would not be surprised if Springer gets a bit luckier this year after posting a relatively low BABIP, and if that’s the case he could propel himself into the elite group his 3 teammates are already in.    

Player to Watch: Collin McHugh

McHugh looks to rejoin the rotation after spending 2018 in the bullpen. Now with Charlie Morton in Tampa Bay and Lance McCullers slated to miss the whole year, McHugh is probably the No. 3 starter on this team right now. McHugh had established himself as a solid middle-rotation guy with 3 consecutive 3+ fWAR seasons from 2014-2016. After getting hurt in 2017, he was the odd man out in 2018. “Demoted” to the bullpen, he pitched to a sub-2 ERA and was one of the better relievers in baseball. Don’t be surprised if McHugh picks up right where he left off in 2016, and produces another 3-4 fWAR season.

Player to Watch: Forrest Whitley

Rated as the number 4 prospect in all of baseball and the number 1 pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley has the chance to make a huge impact for this Astros team. The team will be great without him, so there is not nearly as much pressure on Whitley when compared to a Vlad Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. He has very few professional innings to his credit, and if guys like Miley and Peacock perform he may not pitch for the Astros at all this year. However, if he excels in the minors and a guy like Miley struggles, then the 21-year-old could come up and make a big impact as its obvious he has a way higher ceiling than the back end of the current rotation. He sits in the mid-90s and at 6 feet 7 inches, Whitley carves an imposing figure on the mound.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

2018 Record: 97-65 (2nd in AL West)

2018 Payroll: $80,315,288 (28th)

Projected 2019 Lineup:

1. 2B Jurickson Profar, .259 AVG/.336 OBP/.420 SLG, 3.1 WAR

2. LF Nick Martini, .245 AVG/.330 OBP/.350 SLG, 0.3 WAR

3. 3B Matt Chapman, .249 AVG/.326 OBP/.470 SLG, 4.4 WAR

4. DH Khris Davis, .240 AVG/.323 OBP/.500 SLG, 2.0 WAR

5. 1B Matt Olson, .244 AVG/.337 OBP/.478 SLG, 3.1 WAR

6. SS Marcus Semien, .251 AVG/.319 OBP/.410 SLG, 2.4 WAR

7. RF Stephen Piscotty, .261 AVG/.339 OBP/.448 SLG, 2.3 WAR

8. CF Ramon Laureano, .252 AVG/.322 OBP/.415 SLG, 2.8 WAR

9. C Josh Phegley, .228 AVG/.289 OBP/.381 SLG, 1.0 WAR

Projected 2019 Rotation:

1. Mike Fiers, 152.0 IP/4.70 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 1.1 WAR

2. Daniel Mengden, 83.0 IP/4.88 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.4 WAR

3. Frankie Montas, 124.0 IP/4.67 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 0.6 WAR

4. Chris Bassitt, 89.0 IP/4.56 ERA/1.39 WHIP, 0.4 WAR

5. Marco Estrada, 130.0 IP/5.26 ERA/1.41 WHIP, 0.2 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

The biggest Oakland Athletics news this offseason was centered around their first-round pick, Kyler Murray. Unfortunately, he chose to pursue a career in the NFL instead of honoring his contract with the A’s. Since he signed a contract, the A’s will not get a compensation draft pick in this upcoming draft.

In more positive news, the A’s received second baseman Jurickson Profar in a three-team trade with the Rangers and Rays. The former MLB.com number one overall prospect had a breakthrough year last season, posting a slash line of .254/.335/.458 and an fWAR of 2.9. Other new faces include starting pitcher Marco Estrada and relief pitcher Joakim Soria.

On the flip side, the A’s lost a few key players from last year’s team. Long-time second baseman Jed Lowrie signed a two-year deal with the Mets after posting fWAR seasons of 3.6 and 4.9 in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Relief pitcher Jeurys Familia re-signed with the Mets after they traded him to Oakland last season, starting pitcher Trevor Cahill signed with the Angels, and reliever Shawn Kelly signed with the Rangers.

SEASON PREVIEW

The Athletics were on fire late last season, going 42-23 in the second half. They finished with the 4th best record in the league despite having the 3rd lowest payroll. They got the last wildcard spot, but they lost to the Yankees 7-2. Assuming one of Boston or New York gets the first wildcard spot this season, the A’s will most likely be competing with the Rays for the second spot.

The A’s have a great infield. Every baseball fan knows Matt Chapman is one of the best defensive players in the game. He won the AL Gold Glove last year for third basemen, and he also won the AL Platinum Glove. Look for him to win many more in his career. Chapman also broke out offensively last season, with a WRC+ of 137. All in all, Chapman posted an fWAR of 6.5, 10th highest in the majors, and finished 7th in AL MVP voting. The other Matt across the diamond, Matt Olson, also won a Gold Glove. Olson went on a tear in his first season in the majors, hitting 24 homers in 59 games, with a WRC+ of 163. This past season, he cooled off a bit, but still had a WRC+ of 117, meaning that he was 17 percent better than league average. If he can improve his hitting, he could become a star. The middle infielders are solid as well: Marcus Semien was a finalist for the AL Gold Glove at shortstop, and Jurickson Profar broke out last year with the Rangers. Prospect Jorge Mateo will likely be called up at some point this season as well. He received an 80 run grade, but he had a .280 on-base percentage last season in AAA. He will need to improve on that if he wants to make an impact in the majors.

Josh Phegley and Nick Hundley will split time behind the plate this season for the A’s. Both are in their 30’s and have career OBP’s of under .300, but A’s fans have the call-up of top catching prospect Sean Murphy to look forward to this season. The A’s also have the most consistent player in baseball at the designated hitter position in Khris Davis, who hit .247 four years in a row. He also led the majors in home runs last season with 48 and finished 8th in AL MVP voting.

The A’s outfield is solid as well. Center fielder Ramon Laureano was called up last year and played 48 games in the majors. He had a great performance, compiling a 2.1 fWAR in that short amount of time. Only 16 center fielders had an fWAR of over 2.1 last year, and that’s over a whole season. Left fielder Nick Martini also got called up late last season and had a stellar .397 on-base percentage in 55 games in the majors, and right fielder Stephen Piscotty had a bounce-back year in his first season in Oakland. Look for all three of them to be solid contributors this season.

As for the pitching staff, the relievers are a strength for the A’s. Closer Blake Treinen had an amazing season in 2018. He even had a lower ERA (0.78) than WHIP (0.83)! Lou Trivino, Joakim Soria, and Yusmeiro Petit each had good seasons last year as well and will be key for Oakland in having one of the best bullpens again in 2019. Last year’s bullpen had the 3 lowest ERA in the MLB with 3.37.

In contrast, the starting rotation is not the strength of this A’s team, but it also shouldn’t hold them back from being one of the top teams in the MLB again this season. The top 5 projected starters according to RotoChamp are Mike Fiers, Daniel Mengden, Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt, and Marco Estrada. Fiers had a 3.56 ERA last year with the Tigers and A’s but had a FIP of 4.75 and only a 7.3 K/9 rate so there will be some regression for him. Mengden has a K/9 rate of only 6.7 in 230.2 major league innings but had a 4.05 ERA last year, three percent better than league average, so he should be a decent option for this season. Montas is another young starter that will be respectable if he can perform similarly to last year, where he put up an ERA and FIP of slightly under 4.00. Bassitt is in the same boat, having a career ERA and FIP of slightly under 4.00, but is 30 years old and has only pitched 191.1 innings in the majors so far. Estrada is a wildcard, having posted 2.5+ fWAR seasons recently but was terrible in 2018. The A’s top prospect, Jesus Luzardo, is expected to be up in the majors at some point this season. He is currently MLB.com’s #12 overall prospect.

Record Prediction: 87-75

Player to Watch: 3B Matt Chapman

Chapman is the best player on the A’s and should be for many years to come. With the combination of his standout defense and his improving offense, he is capable of being a perennial all-star and winning many more Gold and Platinum Gloves.

Player to Watch: SP Jesus Luzardo

A’s fans won’t have to wait long to see their top prospect in action this summer. He rose quickly through the minors last season, having pitched in A+, AA, and AAA. In spring training thus far in 2019, he has pitched 5.2 innings and struck out 10 batters. He will likely be called up early this season, and if he lives up to the hype, A’s fans should be in for a treat. 

Player to Watch: C Sean Murphy

Murphy is the A’s other top prospect that should see time in the majors this season. He is MLB.com’s #45 overall prospect and has received a 70 Arm grade and a 65 Field grade. The Athletics’ lineup could be rock solid top to bottom if he can live up to his potential as well.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

2018 Record: 80-82 (4th in AL West)

2018 Payroll: $173,784,989 (7th in MLB)

Projected 2019 Lineup

1. OF Kole Calhoun, .243/.324/.410, 1.9 WAR
2. OF Mike Trout, .300/.441/.600, 8.4 WAR
3. OF Justin Upton, .243/.327/.453, 2.3 WAR
4. 1B Justin Bour, .246/.337/.446, 0.8 WAR
5. DH Albert Pujols, .249/.299/.422, -0.1
6. SS Andrelton Simmons, .277/.328/.399, 3.9 WAR
7. C Jonathan Lucroy, .254/.318/.381, 1.4 WAR
8. 3B Zack Cozart, .243/.315/.401, 2.9 WAR
9. 2B David Fletcher, .272/.312/.374, 1.6 WAR

DH Starting in May: Shohei Ohtani, .273/.354/.516, 2.5 WAR

Projected 2019 Rotation

1. Andrew Heaney, 178.0 IP/3.97 ERA/1.22 WHIP, 2.5 WAR
2. Tyler Skaggs, 157.0 IP/3.97 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
3. Matt Harvey, 153.0 IP/4.70 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
4. Jaime Barría, 105.0 IP/4.94 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.3 WAR
5. Trevor Cahill, 116.0 IP/4.11 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 1.3 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

It was a quiet offseason in sunny Anaheim, as last winter’s splashy moves of Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Zack Cozart were reinforced with a mixture of depth options and health-dependent long shot contributors. The biggest change of all occurred in the dugout, where former Tigers manager Brad Ausmus replaced Mike Scioscia, giving the Halos their first managerial change since the turn of the millennium. The Angels will hope that Ausmus, armed with a roster not headed for quite as steep of a decline as the Tigers’, provides better results.

On the offensive side, the main editions were Justin Bour, Tommy La Stella and Jonathan Lucroy. While Lucroy (as well as the teams that have taken a chance on him the past two years) is still looking for him to rediscover his pre-2017 form, the total disappearance of his 2016 power stroke has been holding the formerly elite catcher back. Bour and La Stella meanwhile will serve moreso as depth options, with Bour holding down first base until Shohei Ohtani’s return at DH in May moves the artist formerly known as Albert Pujols out of the DH role.

Pitching-wise, the Halos added some interesting names to a staff devoid of them. Yet names do not equal production, and in the cases of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill they do not equal health. It’s been a long time since Harvey’s days as the “Dark Knight of Gotham”, but he will be looking in Anaheim to salvage a career that once seemed so promising.

In the bullpen, long time Indians closer Cody Allen has come on board and will look to return to the form of his 5 straight sub-3.00 ERA seasons, rather than the 4.70 ERA of 2018. If his K/9 climbs back towards 12, and if his unusually high 4.43 walk rate goes back down, the Angels might have found themselves an above average closer.

2019 SEASON PREVIEW

The Angels 2019 mission will remain the same as last year’s: overcome a weak pitching staff and ride elite offensive star power to an admittedly unlikely on-paper Wild Card appearance in an Astros-dominated division and overall top-heavy American League.

In 2018 that did not work out, as the Halos finished third in the AL West and a win away from .500. Yet, it does not seem like the Athletics will repeat their miraculous 97 wins. If this is indeed the case, the door to the one-game playoff might be cracked open.

Let’s start with the bad, though. Should the Angels in fact make a Wild Card Game appearance, a key question arises: who takes the ball? Would it be Andrew Heaney? Tyler Skaggs? No matter who they start, the rotation is uninspiring and will hold this team back. No starter is projected to post an ERA below 3.97, and eating innings will be their main focus in a year without an ace. That ace would have been Shohei Ohtani, yet after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the offseason, he will not see any time on the mound until 2020. Beyond that, Cam Bedrosian and a hopefully resurgent Cody Allen anchor a bullpen that was 23rd in WAR in 2018.

Enough of the pitching though, time for the offense. You might think that a “stars and scrubs” approach was limited to fantasy baseball, and the Angels certainly hope that will be the case. But unless Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Jonathan Lucroy, Zack Cozart, and David Fletcher either rediscover production of old—or breakout, in Fletcher’s case—that’s exactly what the Angels might be looking at. Luckily, the Angels star power is quite bright and led by one Mr. Mike Trout. A third double digit fWAR season is not out of the question, and neither is a 40 HR/30 SB season.

With center field locked down by the Milville Meteor, let’s look at the other two positions at which the Angels placed top two in positional group WAR aside from their first place finish in center field: shortstop and DH. Andrelton Simmons’ evolution into a consistent 5 WAR player and .292/.337/.417 hitter with double digit home run power has been nothing short of impressive.

Meanwhile, the designated hitter position should only feature Albert Pujols until May, at which point Shohei Ohtani is projected to return to the lineup. That should inherently mean nothing but good things for the Angels, as Pujols is projected for negative WAR. Add in the potential of Justin Bour displaying the 25+ home run power he showed off in a few of his years in Miami, and the future Hall of Famer might be seeing out a lot of his remaining three years (and earning his remaining 87 million dollars) from the dugout.

Shifting away from the infield and DH positions, Justin Upton can be counted on for impressive power and strong all-around offense, which in addition to Trout makes the outfield a strength for the team. Kole Calhoun is unlikely to have another .241 BABIP season, making his 1.9 WAR projection seem far likelier than his baseline 2018 statistics and 0 fWAR suggest. Though far-fetched, a 2019 appearance from MLB’s #14 prospect Jo Adell cannot entirely be ruled out after a hot start to spring training and a hopefully better performance in Double A where he will start the season.

All things considered, the Angels seem closer to a .500 team than a playoff contender. As such, the most interesting non-Ohtani storyline out of Anaheim in 2019 might be whether to consider trading baseball’s best player ahead of his potential 2020 free agency and look to kickstart a rebuild should they be slow out of the gate.

Projected Record: 81-81

Players to Watch

Mike Trout

What is there left to say? The worst Mike Trout has ever been is still 67% better than league average, with 167 wRC+’s (we’re making it a plural!) in 2012 and 2014. Yet in those two seasons, the Milville Meteor posted 10.0 fWAR with 49 steals and 36 home runs with a career high 111 RBI in the Angels only AL West-winning season of Trout’s career. Does that mean Halos fans should be hoping for a “down” year from their star? Honestly, none of it matters, Trout is the best player in baseball and will perform as such. The only concern should be team success ahead of his potential free agency in 2020. So sit back, enjoy, and get your popcorn ready—no matter how the team’s season goes.

Shohei Ohtani

From the best player in baseball to the most fascinating. As mentioned previously, Ohtani, like so many other pitchers these days, needed Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL this winter. Unlike any other pitchers, Ohtani homered twice the night the initial recommendation was made.

Now, plenty has been written about the historic two-way success of the Japanese sensation as a rookie, but even baseball misses out on Ohtani the pitcher in 2019, watching him DH should still be a treat. With a gorgeous lefty power stroke and criminally underrated speed on the bases, Showtime will look to build off a 152 rookie year wRC+. 30 homers are not out of the question and neither are 20 stolen bases. If he improves against lefties (.222/.300/.354, 32% K% in 2018), he and Trout could make for one of the best two hitting combinations in the game.

Zack Cozart

On a roster with defensive wizard turned all-around star Andrelton Simmons, it is the other infielders who will need to pick up the slack. First and foremost, the Angels will be hoping that comes from a healthy Zack Cozart. After a 2017 career year and NL All-Star appearance, the now 33-year old third baseman played only 58 games in his first season with the Halos. Yet in those games, his walk percentage fell back in line with his career average, from 12.2% to 7.5%, leading to a 90 point drop in on-base percentage. Those disappointing trends basically occurred across the board, though, as Cozart’s 2017 began to look like a significant outlier. Yet, it is that production level that the Halos brought him in for, and were he to rediscover the All-Star form, it would go a long way towards an Anaheim Wild Card push. ocked0 L

TEXAS RANGERS

2018 Record: 67-95 (5th in AL West)

2018 Payroll: $140,625,018 (16th)

Projected 2019 Lineup:

1. DH Shin-Soo Choo .254 AVG/.356 OBP/.418 SLG, 0.8 WAR

2. 2B Rougned Odor .249 AVG/.307 OBP/.453 SLG, 2.1 WAR

3. SS Elvis Andrus .266 AVG/.322 OBP/.394 SLG, 1.3 WAR

4. OF Joey Gallo .225 AVG/.334 OBP/.507 SLG, 3.2 WAR

5. OF Nomar Mazara .271 AVG/.337 OBP/.463 SLG, 2.0 WAR

6. 3B Asdrubal Cabrera .271 AVG/.332 OBP/.445 SLG, 1.8 WAR

7. 1B Ronald Guzman .252 AVG/.321 OBP/.417 SLG, 0.4 WAR

8. OF Delino DeShields .239 AVG/.326 OBP/.339 SLG, 0.8 WAR

9. C Isiah Kiner-Falefa .263 AVG/.325 OBP/.362 SLG, 0.5 WAR

Projected 2019 Rotation:

1. Lance Lynn 138.0 IP/4.46 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 1.6 WAR

2. Mike Minor 175.0 IP/4.59 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 2.1 WAR

3. Shelby Miller 106.0 IP/4.86 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 0.9 WAR

4. Drew Smyly 130.0 IP/4.78 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.0 WAR

5. Edinson Volquez 128 IP/5.12 ERA/1.53 WHIP, 0.8 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

As is the case for many rebuilding teams, the Texas Rangers had a pretty quiet offseason, making only small transactions. The most notable roster change for the Rangers this offseason was the retirement of future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre. To replace him the Rangers brought in Asdrubal Cabrera, who spent last season with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. Cabrera will be an interesting player to watch for the Rangers, seeing which version of his 2018 self he brings to Arlington. If he can replicate his form with the Mets where he put up a 124 wRC+ and 18 home runs in 98 games leading to 2.2 fWAR, Cabrera becomes either a key contributor to a contending Rangers team or an intriguing trade piece for another team. If Cabrera plays for the Rangers with the same quality as he played with the Phillies, where he posted an 83 wRC+, he could find himself out of the lineup. The second most notable signing the Rangers made in terms of fielders was bringing in catcher Jeff Mathis after they declined Robinson Chirinos’ 4.5 million dollar option. Bringing in Mathis gives the Rangers a veteran presence behind the plate and in the clubhouse. However, Mathis does not bring a very good bat to the team as he hit .200 last year. With Mathis turning 36 at the end of this month there’s not much potential for growth this season. Lastly, the Rangers said goodbye to former number one prospect Jurickson Profar, trading him to the Oakland Athletics for prospects. Profar had his struggles with the Rangers but was productive in 2018, posting a 2.9 fWAR. Despite last years success, the Rangers felt that they didn’t have a spot for the 26-year-old. It will be interesting to see how this deal turns out for the Rangers because despite Profar’s struggles in the past he has shown signs of being able to at least partially match his very high potential.

The major focus of the Rangers’ offseason was retooling their pitching staff. Last season after they traded Cole Hamels to the Cubs, the Rangers rotation was quite poor. The quintet of Mike Minor, Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Martin Perez, and Doug Fister isn’t the best rotation a team can put out. Of those five only Minor remains with the team. Perez was able to find a contract with the Twins, but Fister, Colon, and Gallardo are all without a job. The biggest move the Rangers made to shore up their rotation was signing Lance Lynn to a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal. Last year with the Twins and Yankees he had an ERA of 4.77. While on the surface that doesn’t seem like a very good signing, in his 11 games with the Yankees Lynn had 2.17 FIP and 3.03 xFIP, indicating that Lynn has the potential for a major rebound. Anyways, Lynn has been a solid pitcher throughout his career. He will bring a productive option for the Rangers at the front of their rotation. The second starter the Rangers brought in was Shelby Miller. Miller only played in 5 games last season for the Diamondbacks and wasn’t effective in those games with an ERA of 10.69. Miller has had issues with injuries over the past few years, and the Rangers hope that he can stay healthy and provide some value to the team. Drew Smyly was the third player the Rangers brought in to shore up the rotation. Smyly has not played in the majors since 2016 and has struggled with durability, reaching 100 innings only twice in his career. When healthy, Smyly has been an effective pitcher, with a career ERA+ of 107. He could provide the Rangers with a solid mid-rotation starter if he stays healthy. Edinson Volquez was the last starter the Rangers brought in to patch up the rotation. Volquez missed the 2018 season with elbow surgery, and in his last season in 2017, he had a 4.19 ERA and a 1.0 fWAR. Throughout the majority of his career, Volquez has been pretty average, but he should be a reliable arm at the end of the rotation nonetheless.

2019 SEASON PREVIEW

Coming off a 67 win season nobody really expects the Rangers to be a contender this year. In a division with the Houston Astros, it would take a shocking turn around for the Rangers to make it to October. I do think the Rangers are not a cellar dweller this year. They should have a strong enough team to keep things interesting into at least August.

The lineup has a mix of young players and veterans that should be at least somewhat productive this year. One of those veterans, 36-year-old Shin-Soo Choo is coming off a season where he rebounded after having a few down years. Last year, Choo put up a very respectable .377 OBP. With that walk rate, Choo managed to put together a 52 game on-base streak last year, which is a Texas Rangers franchise record. Choo ended up with a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than a league average hitter. Last season’s resurgence was not just a lucky season, proven by Choo’s BABIP, which was .330, slightly below his career average of .337. With that being said, Choo has a good chance to have another productive season, partially because he is very good at drawing walks. Choo’s 13.8% walk rate placed him 14th in the majors last season, and even if his bat starts to decline due to age, Choo should get on base enough to be productive. I see Choo as a veteran who can provide stability at the top of the order.

The middle infield combo of Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus both have been mainstays with the Rangers for a while and are solid players who will be key players for the team this season. Odor will be looking to replicate his 2018 form, where he posted a career-high walk rate (8%) and raised his batting average by .049. If Odor can combine his 2018 plate approach with his 2017 power, he could be a very dangerous batter. A season like that would look around .250/.330/.450 with 30 home runs, which is really good for a second baseman. Unlike Odor, Elvis Andrus would like to put 2018 behind him. Andrus played in 97 games last season and put up his lowest fWAR in his career at 1.2. The Rangers hope that Andrus’ struggles last season were due to injuries and he can play in 2019 as he did in 2017. The 2017 version of Andrus showed a potential for power, as he hit a career high in home runs with 20. If both Odor and Andrus play up to their potential this season, the Rangers could have a really good middle infield over the next few years, with Odor being 25 and Andrus 30. Both players also bring an element of speed to the team, with Odor averaging 12 steals per 162 games and Andrus averaging 30.

On the topic of speed, center fielder Delino DeShields is one of the fastest players in baseball. DeShields had a down year last season, hitting only .216 for a wRC+ of 61. I think that DeShields should be able to bounce back from last year’s disappointment in part because his BABIP was around .040 lower than his career average. If DeShields can raise his batting average to around .250 and combine that with his career 10.1 % walk rate, he will be able to consistently get on base and be a terror on the base paths. Deshields should be able to surpass his career high of steals of 29 this year and be a decent option for the Rangers in center field.

The biggest power threat the Rangers have this season is Joey Gallo, who is coming off back to back 40 home run seasons, and it is certainly possible that he could reach that mark again. Gallo is the perfect representative of three true outcomes baseball. In his career, Gallo has a walk rate of 13.4%, a strikeout rate of 38%, and 12.3 AB/HR, and we can expect nothing different in 2019.  I would expect Gallo to continue to put up a lot of home runs this year and provide a feared presence in the middle of the Rangers’ order.

Nomar Mazara is a player that has not quite lived up to the expectations set on him when he rose through the Rangers system as a top prospect. Despite not reaching his potential yet, Mazara is still 23 years old and has plenty of time to improve and become a star. Last season, Mazara hit too many ground balls, with a 55.1% ground ball rate. Despite his struggles putting the ball in the air, Mazara has produced three straight 20 home run seasons. If Mazara can reach his potential at the plate, he can be a really strong middle of the order bat, and even if he doesn’t make the jump to become an all-star caliber hitter, Mazara will be a cheap, league average hitter.

Behind the plate, the Rangers will deploy a tandem of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jeff Mathis.  Kiner-Falefa is a former infielder that the Rangers transitioned to become a catcher. Last year, Kiner-Falefa played 35 games at catcher and was effective at throwing base stealers, catching eight of the 25 runners. While Kiner-Falefa had a solid arm behind the plate, the rest of his defensive game made him a below average catcher. That’s why the Rangers brought in Jeff Mathis to be a platoon player this year. Mathis will be an average player but will provide the clubhouse with veteran leadership. Overall, the Rangers’ catcher situation is a weakness, but because the team is rebuilding it is not the biggest deal.

In general, the Rangers lineup has some pretty solid players and could be an above average offense. If the Rangers are to make a push for the postseason, their offense will be the ones to carry them there. The pitchers that the Rangers plan on running out there are not the most exciting for the fans. Of those, Lance Lynn is the pitcher Rangers fans should be excited about after he signed with them for 30 million over 3 years. Last season Lynn had 9.25 strikeouts per nine innings, and in his 11 games with the Yankees, he posted a 2.1 fWAR in 54.1 innings. If Lynn can perform similarly to how he did with the Yankees, the Rangers will have a bargain on their hands.

Mike Minor was the best starter on the Rangers last season, leading the team in innings pitched with 157.0. With his performance, Minor was the only starter the Rangers retained from last years rotation of him, Bartolo Colon, Yovani Gallardo, Doug Fister, and Martin Perez. The reason that Minor was kept by the Rangers is that he was actually very effective last season. Minor had a 4.18 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, and he was even better in 2017 with the Royals, where he had an ERA+ of 176. Reaching either his 2017 or 2018 performance level will provide the Rangers with a very good pitcher that could lead them to a contending season or provide them with a very attractive trade option.

Edinson Volquez, Drew Smyly, and Shelby Miller all are in a similar boat, coming off injuries causing them to miss most of or all of 2018. Honestly, this trio isn’t the most exciting for fans, with Miller being the youngest at 28 years old. Volquez is a 35-year-old who didn’t pitch in 2018 due to injury, so Rangers fans can’t expect a great performance. Smyly hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2016, so we have to question if he can perform at the same level he previously had, and even that wasn’t elite. Shelby Miller made 5 starts last year and was not good in those starts. Miller did have a good stretch at the beginning of his career with the Cardinals, so if he can reach is 2014 form the Rangers have a good pitcher on their hands.

The Rangers best pitcher can be found at the back end of their bullpen in closer Jose Leclerc. The 25-year-old became the team’s closer after the Rangers traded Keone Kela to the Pirates, and he pitched great. Leclerc pitched in 59 games last season and had a 1.56 ERA. Leclerc struck out 38.1% of the batters he faced and had an fWAR of 2.5 out of the pen. Because he is so young, Leclerc should continue to be one of the best relievers in baseball, allowing the Rangers to feel comfortable with a lead in the ninth.

Overall, the Rangers have a decent team, but they lack the depth to be a team that closes in on the postseason. In large part, due to their pitching staff, the Rangers will likely fall out of the Wild Card hunt by July, allowing them to trade away pieces to further their rebuild. I think if the Rangers can continue to build their farm system and develop some good pitchers, the can be back in the playoffs in the next few years.

Record Prediction: 76-86

Player to Watch #1: OF Nomar Mazara

A look at Nomar Mazara would make you think he would be an excellent power hitter. With his 6’4” frame, Mazara looks like he should be able to send balls into orbit, similar to Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. But in each of his three major league seasons, Mazara has hit exactly 20 home runs and has been a below average hitter by wRC+. What Mazara does have is his prospect pedigree and time on his side. Mazara was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball when he made his major league debut in 2016. Scouts saw a very strong hit tool in Mazara, and at the time in his major league career, he has been able to display it. If Mazara can consistently hit up to his potential, the Rangers will have a feared bat for many years to come, as Mazara is only 23 years old. Most projections place Mazara as a .265/.330/.450 hitter with around 25 home runs, which is respectable. But if Mazara is to make big strides toward reaching potential in 2019, I would like to see a line around .280/.350/.500 with around 30 homers. If Mazara could reach those numbers, the Rangers and their fans would be thrilled.

Player to Watch #2: OF Willie Calhoun

Willie Calhoun is another player the Rangers have that was highly rated as a prospect but has lacked production in the bigs. Calhoun has played 48 games in the majors in 2017 and 2018 and has hit .233 with an on-base percentage of .283. The reason Calhoun is so important for the Rangers in 2019 is that they can’t afford another former top prospect to struggle. One thing Calhoun has done very well in the minors has been avoiding strikeouts. For example, Calhoun only struck out 47 times in 432 AAA at bats last season. In his short amount of time in the majors, Calhoun has seen his strikeout rate double to 21.4%. Calhoun needs to get back to not striking out as he is not the type of player to rely on walks. Because they are not contending this season, all the Rangers need to see out of Calhoun is progress to him becoming an everyday player. If Calhoun can show the tool he displayed in the minors, baseball fans will be in for a treat.

Player to Watch #3: SP Drew Smyly

Drew Smyly has not pitched in the major leagues since 2016. Missing two straight years makes Smyly a wild card for the Rangers rotation. Smyly in his career has been a solid pitcher with both the Detroit Tigers and the Tampa Bay Rays, with a career ERA of 3.77. If Smyly can pitch as he did before his injury, the Rangers would have a bargain paying him only 5 million dollars for the season. The risk for the Rangers is if Smyly is not the same pitcher as he was before the injury and isn’t able to effectively eat innings for them. I hope that Smyly can pitch as he did in 2013 through 2015 for the Tigers and Rays, where he had an ERA below three in around 300 innings. If Smyly can return to this level, the Rangers have a starter that can pitch well above his contract or be flipped for a pretty good prospect.

SEATTLE MARINERS

2018 Record: 89-73 (3^rd in AL West)

2018 Payroll: $160,993,827 (10^th)

Projected Lineup

1. CF Mallex Smith, .262 AVG/.331 OBP/.366 SLG, 2.3 WAR
2. RF Mitch Haniger, .260 AVG/.339 OBP/.445 SLG, 2.9 WAR
3. DH Jay Bruce, .234 AVG/.307 OBP/.429 SLG, 0.5 WAR
4. 1B Edwin Encarnación, .238 AVG/.337 OBP/.463 SLG, 1.5 WAR
5. 3B Kyle Seager, .241 AVG/.310 OBP/.429 SLG, 2.6 WAR
6. LF Domingo Santana, .237 AVG/.328 OBP/.405 SLG, 1.3 WAR
7. C Omar Narváez, .249 AVG/.332 OBP/.358 SLG, 1.6 WAR
8. SS Tim Beckham, .233 AVG/.289 OBP/.380 SLG, 0.4 WAR
9. 2B Dee Gordon, .275 AVG/.307 OBP/.357 SLG, 1.5 WAR

Projected Rotation

1. LHP Yusei Kikuchi, 143 IP/4.51 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
2. LHP Marco Gonzales, 180 IP/4.09 ERA/1.28 WHIP, 2.2 WAR
3. RHP Mike Leake, 196 IP/4.62 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WAR
4. RHP Félix Hernández, 81 IP/4.81 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 0.5 WAR
5. LHP Wade LeBlanc, 136 IP/4.73 ERA/1.36 WHIP, 0.7 WAR

OFFSEASON RECAP

Being a Mariners fan may not be the most enjoyable thing in the world, but nobody can call it the most boring. Last year, I remarked that Mariners’ GM Jerry Dipoto made a flurry of trades, the frequency of which rivaled that of the New York Stock Exchange. Well, if last year was a flurry of trades, this year was a full-blown Polar Vortex. Seriously. If it snowed an inch in Seattle every time a player was dealt to or from the Mariners this offseason, the newly-renamed T-Mobile Park would have to rebrand itself as a snowmobile arena. James Paxton, who last year led M’s starters in FIP, ERA, fWAR, no-hitters, and times used as an eagle perch, was traded to the Yankees for a trio of prospects. Joining him on the other side of town is the perennial All-Star Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz, who was named the best reliever in the AL last year. Jean Segura is also gone, sent to Philadelphia alongside relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos for JP Crawford and Carlos Santana. Santana himself was in Seattle for only a week and a half until he was flipped to Cleveland for Edwin Encarnación.

The common thread among this pile of moves was that they were done to sacrifice short-term success in the name of building a stronger contender in the 2020s. All of these moves except the Encarnación deal—and he himself is a candidate to be shipped off before the deadline—returned either prospects or young, cost-effective, and controllable players who have the potential to contribute more in the long-term than they do the short term.

Dipoto took the same strategy when signing free agents. Yusei Kikuchi, formerly of the NPB’s Seibu Lions, was signed in an attempt to fill the James Paxton-sized hole in the rotation left by James Paxton. He has a curious contract that can go from anywhere from three to seven years, which would carry him into his mid-thirties. The de facto closer is now Hunter Strickland, who is owed $1.3 million and under team control through 2021. 2018 key contributors Nelson Cruz and Denard Span are neither young nor cost-effective, and so they were not offered contract extensions.

I wasn’t the biggest fan of the roster’s so-called reimagining, but I’ve started to come around. After all, the Astros aren’t going anywhere for the near future, the Athletics seem to have put together the hot core of young players the Mariners never could, and the Angels have a roster with Mike Trout on it. Painful as it is to admit, looking forward to a few years in the future makes sense.

But this isn’t the 2021 Mariners Season Preview. It’s the 2019 Mariners Season Preview, doggone it, and I’m here to write about the 2019 Mariners. Well, here goes:

2019 SEASON PREVIEW

The Mariners are projected to return four of five of their top starters in 2018, the lone departure being the aforementioned Paxton trade. Replacing him is the team’s marquee signing of the offseason: Yusei Kikuchi. Scouts predict that though Kikuchi has the talent to pitch like a No. 2 starter down the road, he’ll likely figure to be a mid-rotation type as he adjusts to Major League hitting. Kikuchi’s presence also means that the Mariners will employ an opener strategy for a few starts this year: in an effort to lessen his workload as he adjusts to an MLB schedule, the lefty will only pitch one inning every fifth start or so.

Pop quiz: which qualified Mariner starter led the team in ERA last year? Okay, pencils down. If you guessed Félix Hernández, you haven’t paid attention to Mariners Baseball since 2014. If you guessed Paxton, you’d be disappointed to learn that he fell 1 1/3 innings short of qualifying for that mark. If you guessed journeyman long reliever turned spot starter turned #5 starter Wade LeBlanc, I’d laugh at you but for the fact that you’re right: over exactly 162 innings, he posted a 3.72 ERA that bested rotation-mates Marco Gonzales and Mike Leake. LeBlanc got by last year with a crafty and effective combination of mixing his pitches well and painting the edges of the plate; this was perhaps best shown when he held the eventual World Champion Boston Red Sox to two hits in 7 2/3 shutout innings on national television. He wasn’t the Mariners’ best starter in 2018, and he probably won’t be their best starter in 2019, but LeBlanc proved last year that he was serviceable, even if his Jamie Moyer-esque strategy of “throw 87 and hope they don’t crush it” will give fans heart attacks.

Leake and Gonzales also return for their second full years in Seattle. Similar to LeBlanc, Marco Gonzales is a southpaw who relies not on velocity but pinpoint command and a versatile arsenal of pitches that he uses at any time, to any batter, and on any count. By now, he should have made a full recovery from his 2016 Tommy John surgery and will be able to improve on a 2018 that saw him earn 3.6 fWAR, buoyed by a solid 3.43 FIP. After changing his number to #7 in the offseason, Gonzales joins Leake (#8) to form what I believe to be the only rotation in baseball history to have two pitchers with single-digit numbers. That’s just about the only interesting Mike Leake fact I know. Leake returns to provide another year of stability in the middle of the rotation, and barring something unforeseen we should see another low-4 ERA for 180 more innings from the steady veteran.

Filling out the rotation is the King-in-exile Félix Hernández. Félix had a 2018 that was in many ways similar to his 2017. Though he showed flashes of his former ace pedigree, inconsistency and plummeting velocity and command sent him to the bullpen late last season. Though a comeback isn’t completely out of the cards (how long ago was it when we were writing Justin Verlander off?), Hernández will likely never return to his old electrifying self.

Ultimately, the Mariners’ starters won’t blow anyone away with the firepower of a James Paxton or 2014 Hernández. They will, however, minimize mistakes and provide a stability that has been noticeably absent from its incarnations in 2017 and 2018. With enough run support, one could overlook the lack of a real ace pitcher and be comfortable running out at least the trio of Gonzales, Kikuchi, and Leake for 180 innings each.

Unfortunately, this team is unlikely to provide that run support. The lineup has been gutted: instead of seeing Robinson Canó and Nelson Cruz slugging in the middle of the order, they have been replaced with infielder-turned-outfielder-turned-infielder Dee Gordon and a probable platoon of Jay Bruce and Dan Vogelbach. Bruce is trying to rebound from an atrocious and injury-plagued season that saw his power numbers crater. He did post career highs in BB% and K% though, so he may be able to bounce back somewhat. If Bruce does rebound, then he—like Encarnación—is likely to be traded for a few more prospects. Vogelbach continues to rake in Triple-A Tacoma, but his vaunted plate discipline there (20.4 BB% in 2018) continues to be absent in the majors, where he’s posted a 12.9 BB% and 24.0 K% in three late-season callups. If you find yourself asking “could this be the year a player has a breakout season?” for the fourth season in a row, the answer’s probably going to disappoint you.

After one disappointing half-season in center field, the Dee Gordon Experiment is officially over. He will return to second base, where he should continue to play at a Gold Glove-caliber. A broken toe hampered his effectiveness at the plate and on the basepaths last season, and he finished the season with a .288 OBP and only 30 stolen bases. He had a career low BABIP of .304 in 2018, likely a product of his injury, so Gordon is a strong candidate to recover now that he’s back at full health. Joining him in the middle infield is former top prospect JP Crawford, the team’s lone return in a trade that sent Jean Segura and James Pazos to Philadelphia and, ultimately, Carlos Santana to Cleveland. Crawford rode his incredible plate discipline to 225 plate appearances in the majors across the past two years. Though that element of his game remains strong, he needs to prove that he can actually hit major league pitching and play defense, neither of which he has managed to do yet. In the likely event that he doesn’t start at shortstop Opening Day, Tim Beckham is here on a one-year deal to avoid rushing Crawford’s development (and keep his service time down: if Crawford isn’t on the major league roster come May, the Mariners control him until 2025).

The rest of the infield is Kyle Seager and Edwin Encarnación. Seager had been in a steady offensive decline since 2016, but 2018 was when it became noticeable. His walk rate dropped to a career low of 6.0%, while his strikeout rate ballooned five full points to 21.9 %, resulting in an atrocious .273 OBP. He’s been swinging and missing a whole lot more often as well, up to 9.9% after hovering around 7.5% for the majority of his career. Though he remains a defensive asset, Seager is unlikely to be moved in the case that he does rebound thanks to a contract that converts a club option before his age 35 season in 2022 to a $15 million player option. Encarnación, only under contract for 2019 with a team option for 2020 and coming off his seventh straight 30+ HR season, is much more likely to be moved. If he is indeed not around long for Seattle, Ryon Healy will take over manning first. Though he looked impressive in his 2016 rookie campaign, Healy has trended downward ever since, with the nadir coming in 2018. Part of the problem may have been an unnaturally low .257 BABIP, but high strikeout rates and an abject refusal to walk will limit his effectiveness even if that normalizes in 2019.

At catcher, Omar Narváez will take over from fan favorite Mike Zunino, now a Tampa Bay Ray. Narváez is in many ways the Anti-Zunino: a bat-first catcher who can take a walk; his OBP is a full 107(!) points higher than the defensively talented but offensively maddening Zunino. His defense, however, particularly his pitch-framing skills, need work. As of the writing of this article, Martín Maldonado is a free agent. He would not only be an upgrade over current backstop backup David Freitas, his strong defensive skills behind the dish would help him contribute greatly to Narváez’s development.

The outfield is where the 2019 Mariners’ strength lies. In Mallex Smith, they once again have an actual center fielder. One of the fastest players in the Major Leagues, Smith is the rare player for whom a .366 BABIP is not as troubling. He may yet be due for regression (.366 is still incredibly high), but Smith is still capable of getting on base and with his speed, he’s a candidate to steal 40 bases. Joining him in right field is third-year man Mitch Haniger, the most talented offensive player on the team. Left field is a bigger question mark. Domingo Santana figures to be the everyday left fielder after being unable to establish himself in a crowded Milwaukee outfield. Ichiro also returns as a non-roster invitee, and he should at least make the team for the opening Japan Series. At 45, Ichiro is more folk hero than valuable contributor to the team, but if he plays well in Spring Training and the first couple games I’d expect him to stick around. And why not? He says he wants to play until he’s 50, and the man joins Edgar Martínez, Randy Johnson, and Ken Griffey on the Mount Rushmore of all-time Mariners. Having Ichiro around is good for baseball, period.

Finally, we arrive at the Mariners’ barren bullpen. Long gone are the days of Álex Colomé and Edwin Díaz dominating in one-run situations, as the two of them have been traded to Chicago and New York, respectively. Last year, Díaz tied for the second-highest single-season saves total in MLB history. The amount of games he saved in the 2018 season—57—nearly doubles the career saves total of every Mariner pitcher on the team’s current active roster. Saves are a fairly silly stat, of course, but the consistency at the back of the bullpen last year was a huge part of why they could win 89 games with a negative differential. Now that Díaz, Colomé, and dependable lefty James Pazos are all gone, the best high-leverage reliever on the team may well be a man more focused on punching out Bryce Harper than he is striking out Bryce Harper.

After Strickland, there’s a whole lot of nothing. After leveraging a solid 2017 into an expensive contract with the Mets, Anthony Swarzak is looking to recover from a dismal 2018 that saw him post a 5.48 FIP, give up over 2 home runs per nine innings, and be included in the Díaz/Canó deal as salary relief. If Swarzak does recover, he’ll be offloaded at the deadline to a team that has better use for him. Joining Swarzak and Strickland in the bullpen are a bouquet of relievers with minimal major-league experience; with 338 major-league innings under his belt, 30-year-old swingman Roenis Elías is the elder statesman of the bunch. Will this bullpen be good? Probably not. Will this bullpen be capable of doing what their 2018 counterpart did and turn a 75-win team into a 90-win team? Definitely not.

Record Prediction: 73-89

Don’t be fooled by their 89 wins last year. The 2018 Mariners would have been a 77-win team if not for their constant late-inning heroics. After they dealt away their staff ace, all-star setup man, all-world closer, and a double play combo that combined to produce 6.7 fWAR, it’s very unlikely that we’ll see the same lightning in a bottle in 2019 that the 2018 squad managed to capture. Then again, the goal of the 2019 Mariners isn’t to win games, it’s to develop a core of young talent so that in a few years they can win games. In other words, this team is the Iron Man 2 to the 2021 squad’s Avengers: the product right now isn’t going to be the best, but it’s going to put itself in the position to be something much better in a couple of years.

Player to Watch: RF Mitch Haniger

This time last year, I was throwing Mitch Haniger’s name around as a potential star. This year, I get to do away with the “potential” part. After injuries shortened his rookie campaign to only 96 games, the Mariners right fielder enjoyed a breakout 2018 where he posted a .366 OBP and a 138 wRC+ that barely missed being top 10 in the majors. He continued to improve his plate discipline, cutting his strikeout rate while improving his walk rate to a cool 10.7 percent. He did all of this while providing above-average defense while patrolling right field, cutting down several careless baserunners on his way to a league-leading 12 outfield assists. It’s easy to say that Haniger is the most complete baseball player on this team, and he should have no problems building on his explosive 2018 season.

Player to Watch: LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Just as longtime staff ace Félix Hernández’s effectiveness started to drop, the eyes of Seattle’s faithful turned to a man whom many felt would take Félix’s mantle to lead their rotation for years to come. Unfortunately, that man was James Paxton, who’s now a New York Yankee. Enter Yusei Kikuchi, hoping to follow the footsteps of Kazuhiro Sasaki, Hisashi Iwakuma, and Ichiro as Japanese baseball players who found success with the Mariners. His arrival to the MLB was met with substantially less fanfare than last year’s Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, but Kikuchi has both his UCLs and also demonstrated himself to be a proven talent in Japan. In his eight seasons with the Seibu Lions, Kikuchi posted a 2.77 ERA, peaking in 2017 when he led the NPB with a 1.97 ERA and struck out 10.4 batters per nine innings.

2019 figures to be an adjustment year for the lefthanded rookie as he acclimates himself to another continent, another league, and a heavier workload. The rotation-fronting potential is still there, though: After facing Kikuchi for the first time in Spring Training in an at-bat that resulted in an ugly swinging K, Joey Votto compared the portsider’s looping curve to Clayton Kershaw’s. I’m obviously not about to hype Kikuchi up to be the next Kershaw, but the potential of his pure stuff should tantalize Mariners fans. At 27 years old, and under contract for as long as seven years, he should be a major contributor to this team for years to come.

Player to Watch: RHP Dan Altavilla

If Strickland doesn’t pan out as the M’s closer, keep an eye on Altavilla. Similar to the dearly departed Díaz, Altavilla was initially developed as a starter before transitioning into a high octane, K-intensive relief ace. Only Altavilla doesn’t really qualify as an ace yet. A fifth round draft pick in 2014, Altavilla has pitched fewer than 80 innings in the majors. However, he has been impressive in his limited time, showing off an upper-90s fastball and slider that has literally generated swinging strikes while going through a batter’s legs: