GO DEEP FOR THESE LONG-SHOT LEADERS

Mike Trout for MVP? Max Scherzer for the Cy Young award? Sure, they might have a better chance than anyone else, but those predictions are no fun, and they’re certainly not useful for your fantasy teams.

At BaseballHQ.com we dig deeper, taking a look at longshot category leaders who, even if they don’t quite lead the league by year’s end, should at least be growth stocks for the 2019 season. “Long shot” is a loose term, so we’ll keep this list to any player with an average draft position (ADP) outside the top 150 picks entering the season.

BATTING CHAMPIONS

American League: Simply put, Willians Astudillo of the Minnesota Twins rarely strikes out. He did so just 81 times in 2,265 career minor league at bats, which translated well to the majors with just three K’s in 97 plate appearances in 2018.

Astudillo’s biggest obstacle to the batting title might just be qualifying for it — he’s projected for only 40 percent playing time at Baseball HQ — but he can play anywhere, even appearing at center field in a game last year. The 5-9, 225-pound backstop holds plenty of value in two-catcher leagues if he can crack the lineup on a semi-regular basis. His extreme bat-on ball plate approach has .300 written all over it.

National League: Corey Dickerson of the Pittsburgh Pirates became a line-drive machine last season while reducing his strikeout rate from 24 percent in 2017 to 15 percent in 2018. (League average: 22 percent.) The result? His third season with at least a .300 batting average in the last five years.

Dickerson’s contact-centric approach cost him some power, but he’s averaged 20-plus home runs over the last three seasons and even stole eight bases last year. Dickerson is an elite batting average source who won’t cost you in other categories; his line-drive stroke should net yet another .300 campaign.

STOLEN BASE LEADERS

AL: Just one year ago, Texas Rangers outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. was a trendy top 150 pick, as he’d stolen 29 bags in just 376 at-bats the season before. Now, DeShields is barely cracking the top 400 thanks to a disastrous 2018 season: he hit .218, was demoted to the minors and suffered through hand and head injuries late in the year.

DeShields should get a shot at redemption as Texas’ everyday center fielder and could even bat leadoff should 36-yearold Shin-Soo Choo get hurt or traded. DeShields has the ingredients — excellent raw speed, plus plate patience, and a lower strikeout rate in 2018 — for a shot at 40-plus steals if he can stay in the lineup. He’s a fine recency bias rebound target.

NL: Infielder Garrett Hampson of the Colorado Rockies is in the midst of a battle with Ryan McMahon for the starting second- base job, which should have major fantasy implications. Hampson can also play shortstop and outfield if the keystone doesn’t work out; giving him multiple paths to let his game-changing speed flourish.

Hampson went 36-for-41 on the basepaths last year at Class AA and AAA and has the plate skills (career .389 on-base percentage in the minors) to get on base regularly. Coors Field is batting-average heaven and Colorado’s lineup is strong; all Hampson needs is an everyday gig and to post monster batting average and stolen base numbers.

HOME RUN LEADERS

AL: Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk struggled in April and missed all of May (knee), then proceeded to smash 23 home runs over 2018’s final four months. Grichuk gets plenty of air (47 percent fly-ball rate in 2018), which allows his elite raw power to thrive. His 9.5 percent barrel rate (per Major League Baseball Statcast data) ranked seventh best among all hitters in 2018.

Grichuk might cost you in batting average despite his mildly improving strikeout rate, but there’s 40-plus home run power lurking with a full season of at-bats.

NL: Hunter Renfroe of the San Diego Padres showed why he was once considered a top prospect with a monster second half (22 home runs in 246 at bats). The 27-year-old paired noticeably more loft (46 percent fly-ball rate) with excellent raw power skills down the stretch, and the power was well-balanced against left- and righthanded pitching. A simple continuation of Renfroe’s skill-supported second half could place him among the NL’s top mashers.

STRIKEOUT LEADERS

AL: Baltimore Orioles starter Dylan Bundy has been an afterthought this draft season — a 7.61 ERA in the second half will certainly do that — but he can miss a ton of bats thanks to a devastating slider (27 percent swinging-strike rate; MLB slider average: 17 percent) that he throws one-fourth of the time.

Bundy has home run issues and pitches for a Baltimore team that will struggle for wins. But with 170 or more innings pitched in each of the last two seasons, Bundy has the volume and raw stuff to make a run at 200 strikeouts.

NL: This one’s a real long shot since he pitched just 77 innings last year, but on a per-inning basis, Caleb Smith of the Miami Marlins can rack up strikeouts with the best of them. He generated whiffs with all three of his primary pitches last year — a fastball (11 percent swinging-strike rate), changeup (17 percent), and slider (16 percent) — ending up with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Smith should have enough leash to stick in Miami’s rotation for most of the season, which makes him one of the better sources for strikeouts in the endgame.

ERA LEADERS

AL: Tyler Glasnow has always had the talent; maybe he just needed a change of scenery? Now with the Tampa Bay Rays, his skills flourished after a midseason trade; he put up a strong 64-to-19 strikeout-to walk ratio in 11 starts with his new team.

With an upper-90s fastball and excellent curveball, Glasnow has been tabbed as a premium speculative target by BaseballHQ.com throughout draft season. A full season in his new digs with a shrewd front office could translate to major gains for this former top prospect.

NL: Kenta Maeda ’s versatile pitch mix features a devastating one-two punch; he had a swinging- strike rate of at least 26 percent on both his change-up (15 percent usage in 2018) and slider (23 percent) last year despite a 3.81 ERA. We’re hedging that he stays in the Los Angeles Dodgers rotation for most of the year. With enough innings, Maeda misses enough bats and avoids enough walks to make a speculative run at an ERA title.