How do we see the 2019 season unfolding? Hint: expect chaos
Bryce Harper has switched sides, but not divisions. Manny
Machado has a home, but not yet a fully formed core around him in San Diego.
With that, USA TODAY’s projected win totals for the 2019
Major League Baseball season have arrived. If our projections are on the nose,
it should be a crazy final week of the season.
Our six-person panel’s projections landed on total chaos: A
three-way tie in the NL Central, a two-way tie atop the NL East — and all five
teams landing on the same record, creating a dizzying set of tiebreakers.
Just because there could be a decent dose of parity doesn’t
mean tanking has been eradicated.
A solid eight to 10 teams project to throw in the towel by mid-June;
many of them, like the White Sox, found that pulling out of a non-competitive
spiral takes far more than one offseason.
Others are trying more earnestly to compete but find
themselves in divisions where more teams are “all-in” than elsewhere — and
somebody has to finish fifth.
With that, here’s how we see 2019 unfolding:
AL EAST
It’s just a light World Series hangover for the Red Sox
(9567), but it’s sufficient enough that the reloaded and terribly deep Yankees
(98-64) ease past them for the division title. Will it be an all-East
wild-card game? Quite possibly, if the Rays (86-76) and their
revamped lineup platoons its way to enough runs in support of Blake Snell and
The Openers. The Blue Jays (74-88) might delay Vladimir
Guerrero Jr.’s arrival, but an ugly retooling year is almost inevitable. Can
the Orioles (56-106) avoid becoming the first team to lose 110
games in consecutive years? We say yes, barely.
AL CENTRAL
The year is 2050, and Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and
Trevor Bauer are still taking the ball for a 90-plus win Indians
(93-69) team. Or at least it seems that way. No team might be more
volatile than the Twins (83-79), who could push 90 wins and
the Indians or recede toward .500. The White Sox (75-87) are
the best of the worst, buying some stability with veterans like Ervin Santana,
Yonder Alonso and Jon Jay and signing elite outfield prospect Eloy Jimenez to a
six year, $43 million deal — but no Machado. The Royals (64-98) and
their unique gambit, corner the market on speed, are fun and intriguing.
The tactic might pay off, once there’s pitching to support it. The Tigers
(64-98) haven’t lost 100 since their epic 119-loss 2003 season. That might
change.
AL WEST
The Astros (98-64) kept it interesting last
year, waiting until the third week of September to put away the division. Has
anyone in the West closed the gap further? Probably not. The Athletics
(86-76) got frugally creative in piecing together a reputable pitching
staff last season and winning 97 games. It’s a tough move to repeat — good
luck, Marco Estrada — and our panel has them at anywhere from 82 to 90 wins.
The Angels (82-80) will be a chic sleeper pick and a legit
threat if their pitching can, for once, stay healthy. The Mariners
(75-87) and Rangers (70-92) are in various stages of
retreat but might win more games than anticipated given the amount of veteran
talent on both squads.
NL EAST
Not only will this be a four team fight but every squad has
a significant emotional investment The Nationals (89-73) eager to
prove they can win without Harper; the Phillies (88-74) to
justify their $330 million investment, along with other win-now moves; the Braves
(89-73) to prove they’re not a fluke; and the Mets (83-79) to
show that their rock-star GM can flourish even under the shackles of the Wilpon
regime. For now, grab your popcorn and dream on a Max Scherzer-Aaron Nola
one-game playoff for the division. (And then there’s the Marlins
(62-100).
NL CENTRAL
Baseball’s other high-stakes division, where someone is
going to finish fourth and be very upset about it. For now, we see it as you
probably do: A three-way shootout between the Cubs (89-73), Cardinals
(89-73) and Brewers (89-73). The margin figures to be so
thin that the losers should experience significant regret they didn’t do more
this offseason. Regret doesn’t seem to exist in Pittsburgh, where the Pirates
(76-86) continued their 20-year streak of not committing so much as $60
million to one player. The Reds (75-87) should break a string
of four 90-loss seasons; starting pitchers Alex Wood (on the disabled list) and
Tanner Roark make them better and Yasiel Puig makes them fun, but it’s a tough
year to climb uphill in this division.
NL WEST
This division nearly nailed the Machado-Harper exacta. Alas,
the Dodgers (94-68) should easily run their streak of division
titles to seven even without a new superstar. A rotation 10-deep in useful arms
— keep an eye on Julio Urias this year — should have them coasting to the
postseason. They’ll get a decent fight from the Rockies (87-75),
who could probably use another bullpen arm after the defection of Adam
Ottavino. The Diamondbacks (78-84) haven’t yet traded Zack Greinke
and thus should have a passable product even in the post-Paul Goldschmidt era.
Machado’s Padres (74-88) will be mere spoilers this season, but if
Chris Paddack and other young pitchers seize the day, they could come quicker
than we imagine. Amid a rocky spring training that’s included a high-profile
Harper chase and an ugly domestic incident involving CEO Larry Baer, here’s
hoping the Giants (69-93) can produce a placid farewell season
for manager Bruce Bochy.
No comments:
Post a Comment