Monday, March 25, 2019

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST 2019 SEASON PREVIEW


BOSTON RED SOX

2018 Record: 108-54 (1st in AL East, World Series Champions)

2018 Payroll: $227,398,860 (1st)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
All player projections from Steamer
  1. LF Andrew Benintendi, .286 AVG/.366 OBP/.464 SLG, 3.7 WAR
  2. RF Mookie Betts, .302 AVG/.385 OBP/.535 SLG, 7.1 WAR
  3. DH J.D. Martinez, .297 AVG/.372 OBP/.568 SLG, 3.6 WAR
  4. SS Xander Bogaerts, .286 AVG/.355 OBP/.465 SLG, 4.1 WAR
  5. 1B Mitch Moreland, .251 AVG/.325 OBP/.442 SLG, 0.7 WAR
  6. 3B Rafael Devers, .271 AVG/.328 OBP/.477 SLG, 2.5 WAR
  7. 2B Dustin Pedroia, .272 AVG/.344 OBP/.390 SLG, 1.6 WAR
  8. C Christian Vazquez, .256 AVG/.305 OBP/.367 SLG, 0.9 WAR
  9. CF Jackie Bradley Jr, .248 AVG/.329 OBP/.421 SLG, 2.6 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
  1. LHP Chris Sale, 202.0 IP/2.77 ERA/0.97 WHIP, 6.5 WAR
  2. LHP David Price, 194.0 IP/3.95 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 3.1 WAR
  3. RHP Rick Porcello, 191.0 IP/4.25 ERA/1.24 WHIP, 2.5 WAR
  4. RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 152.0 IP/3.92 ERA/1.25 WHIP, 2.7 WAR
  5. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, 136.0 IP/4.03 ERA/1.27 WHIP, 1.8 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
The Red Sox had a quiet offseason and will mostly bring back the same team that won them a World Series Championship in 2018. Their biggest move was re-signing Nathan Eovaldi to a 4-year, $68 million contract. The Sox initially acquired Eovaldi from the Rays in late-July in a move that proved to be critical for their World Series run. He posted a 3.33 ERA in 54 regular season innings, but earned his hefty contract by dominating in the postseason to the tune of a 1.61 ERA in over 20 innings of work. Similarly, Steve Pearce was acquired mid-season to platoon with Mitch Moreland at first and hit for an OPS over .900 in 50 regular season games with the team. He then went on to win World Series MVP after 3 home runs, 8 RBIs, and an OBP of .500 in the series. Pearce re-signed with the Sox on a 1-year, $6.25 deal, and he will play a similar role platooning at first in his upcoming age-36 season.
The most notable subtractions to the team came in the bullpen. As of the writing of this article, Craig Kimbrel still has not signed with a team, but it is very unlikely he will come back to the Red Sox. He regressed from his phenomenal 2017 campaign when he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting, but still managed to remain one of the best closers in the game with a 2.74 ERA and 42 saves. Joe Kelly signed with the Dodgers, whom he dominated in the World Series, and while he was inconsistent at times, his loss will be felt in the back of the bullpen. The other two veteran subtractions were Drew Pomeranz and Ian Kinsler, both of whom will not be missed much by Red Sox faithful to say the least.
Lastly, the Red Sox added a slew of names to compete for bullpen jobs in 2019. They traded for 26-year-old Colton Brewer from the Padres and signed Domingo Tapia, Erasmo Ramirez, Zach Putnam, Ryan Weber, Carson Smith, and Jenrry Mejia all too minor-league deals. Brewer was subpar in his first brief major league stint last season, but has plenty of upside and could make his way into the Sox pen with an injury or two. Another guy to look out for is Putnam, who was a solid reliever for the White Sox a few years ago, but missed all of 2018 due to injury. However, it seems like the Red Sox did not do enough to address their bullpen concerns. With plenty of solid relievers on the market earlier in the offseason like Adam Ottavino, Andrew Miller, and the much cheaper Brad Brach, it is surprising Dave Dombrowski did not pull the trigger on even one free-agent reliever.
SEASON PREVIEW
Well, there’s not much the Red Sox could have done better in 2018. They are coming off arguably the best season any team has had since the turn of the century, winning 108 games and going 11-3 in postseason play. They bring back almost exactly the same team with a young core that shows no signs of slowing down.
The starting pitching might be the strongest aspect of this team with bonafide ace Chris Sale at the helm, former Cy Young winners David Price and Rick Porcello behind him, and Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez providing solid depth at the #4 and #5. Sale has finished top-6 in Cy Young voting every year since the White Sox converted him to a starter, and most likely would have won it last year if not for his shoulder injury. He did only throw 158 innings last year, his lowest total as a starter, but he also put together a career-best 2.11 ERA. He also still managed to strike out 237 batters, sixth in the majors, while walking just 34. Even if some of his rate numbers decrease, I’m sure the Red Sox will be happy if he gets back to his regular 200 innings mark.
David Price’s tenure in Boston has left much to be desired at times, but he has been a fairly above-average major league pitcher, with flashes of brilliance at times. It definitely speaks to his lofty expectations when a 3.74 ERA in his three years in Boston is considered bad by many fans. Price struggled in the beginning of last season with a 4.42 ERA in his first 19 starts, but post-all-star game, he put together a 2.25 ERA in his remaining 11 starts. He also settled many of his postseason woes by throwing gems in the ALCS and World Series clinchers. Look for him to carry his late season momentum into 2019 and try to prove why he is worth the massive contract the Sox gave him.
After a rough 2017, Rick Porcello bounced back to post a 4.28 ERA in 191 innings last year. He won’t return to the Cy Young winner he was back in 2016, but 200 innings of a low-4.00 ERA is more than enough from a #3 starter. Nathan Eovaldi and Eduardo Rodriguez round out the back of the rotation as two guys with high upside, but also little consistency. Injury concerns are always present for Eovaldi, who has thrown fewer than 250 the past three years combined. However, as previously mentioned, Eovaldi was great on the Sox for the short time he was there in 2018 and looks to build on his success in his first full season in Boston. Eduardo Rodriguez has still never reached the 150 innings mark in a season yet, but luckily his injury problems have seemed to be freak accidents that he will be able to leave in his past. If he finally lives up to his potential this season, the Red Sox will boast one of, if not the best rotations in baseball.
While the starting rotation is a bright spot for this team, the bullpen is a different story heading into the year. The losses of Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly not only hurt because of their talents, but the Sox bullpen also now has very little depth. Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier will compete for the vacant closer role, while guys like Tyler Thornburg, Heath Hembree, Brian Johnson, and Brandon Workman are all most likely locks to make the pen out of spring training. Steven Wright, once healthy, and Hector Velazquez will serve as long relievers over the course of the year, while a slew of minor leaguers including Chandler Shepherd, Bobby Poyner, Marcus Walden, and Carson Smith, as well as newcomers Erasmo Ramirez, Colten Brewer, and Zach Putnam all have a decent chance at making the majors at some point during the season.
Brasier is the guy who will largely determine the success of the bullpen is 2019. Barnes has already solidified himself as a solid, consistent reliever, but Brasier has a much different story. Five years after his brief and only major league stint, he bounced around team-to-team until he was called up by the Red Sox in July. From there, he went on to pitch 33 innings with a mere 1.60 ERA and upped himself by making nine postseason appearances, allowing just one run. If he continues pitching the way he did last season, he will find himself as the closer and a fine one at that. Brandon Workman will probably be the other setup man with Barnes, as he is coming off a solid year with a 3.27 ERA in just over 40 innings.
Now to the really exciting part of the Red Sox: the lineup. In 2018, the Sox finished with the highest batting average in baseball, the highest on-base percentage in baseball, the highest slugging percentage in baseball, and not surprisingly, the most number of runs in baseball. Reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts leads the way, with the monster bat of J.D. Martinez behind him. Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi look to follow up great years. Young phenom Rafael Devers hopes to rise to the level many people were predicting from him, as he was #4 on MLB.com’s prospect ranking just over a year-and-a-half ago. Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce will platoon at first and provide power from both sides of the plate, while Jackie Bradley Jr. will provide his usual elite defense in center field, with offense from his bat being a plus. Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon will split the role of catcher and serve as the only hole in this deep lineup. Dustin Pedroia hopes to bounce back from an injury-filled 2018 in which he only played in 3 games; if not, Brock Holt will serve as a dependable replacement at second.
What an exciting year from Mookie Betts. He hit a ridiculous .346 and slugged .640 while joining the 30-30 club and playing arguably the best defense in baseball. Yeah, he’s a superstar. He posted a 10.9 WAR which, according to baseball-reference, is good for the 21st best season of all-time. That’s right, all-time. Not to mention the fact that Betts missed over 20 games due to injury. Now, the question is where does he go from here? It seems silly to think he can reproduce his numbers from last year, but Mookie might just be knocking on Mike Trout’s door as the best player in baseball if he puts up similar stats in 2019.
After signing with the team last offseason, J.D. Martinez flirted with the Triple Crown in 2018, completing the best lineup in baseball. He hit .330 and slugged 43 home runs and 130 RBIs, with the third-highest wRC+ in baseball at 170 behind just Trout and Betts. This led to him winning two Silver Sluggers, which, yes, is somehow possible and no, don’t ask me how. His plate discipline, work ethic, and IQ of the game are unparalleled, and Martinez is seemingly aging like fine wine. Nothing American League pitchers did seemed to work and he should keep mashing in 2019 like he has before.
Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. fill the other two outfield spots alongside Betts, making for one of the top outfields in baseball, especially defensively. Bradley had another poor offensive year, although he still gets on base almost at a league average rate. However, it is obviously the defense that sets Bradley apart and secures his role as the Red Sox starting center fielder. He finished 9th in the new Statcast statistic, Outs Above Average (OAA), with 11 (Mookie Betts had 12, but I’ve talked enough about him already.) However, Bradley recently claimed 2018 was his worst defensive season and although the metrics don’t necessarily back that up, if he wants to improve in center field, I don’t think any Red Sox fan will complain about that. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi is coming off an improved sophomore campaign, albeit one where he fell off a bit in the second half of the season. He may have been experiencing the classic “sophomore slump,” but expect a player of his caliber to return to the near all-star level he was previously.
Xander Bogaerts put everything together in 2018 for the best season of his career. After an ugly 2017, Bogaerts raised his OPS by well over 100 points to .883 in 2018, while more than doubling his home run total to 23 and driving in over 100 runs. Rafael Devers will try to solidify the left side of the infield in his age-22 season. After serving as a spark plug during his rookie season, Devers tailed off last year, but expectations remain high among the Red Sox organization. Devers still hit 21 homers last year and has some of the best raw opposite-field power in baseball, which plays great for a lefty at Fenway Park. He still has his ways to go defensively, but offensively, watch out for his breakout year. Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce will platoon at first, with Moreland hitting against righties and Pearce against lefties. However, last season, Pearce was just as good as Moreland against righties, so he may get the chance to steal the job outright, albeit Moreland is the better defender. Lastly, at second base, we have Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia was essentially out for the entire 2018 season and it seems like he has not played in forever, yet he is just a few years out of a 2016 campaign with an OPS of .825 and his usual, spectacular defense. If he can heal up, he’ll be able to play some solid baseball for the Sox while providing his veteran leadership.
The weakest position for the Red Sox will be at catcher, with one of Christian Vazquez or Sandy Leon looking to step up offensively to go along with solid defense. Vazquez was so bad offensively in 2018 that he recorded a negative WAR, which is really difficult for a plus-defense catcher. His wRC+ fell from 92 to 42 from 2017 to 2018 and to get back to even a below-average bat would be a benefit for the Sox. Sandy Leon was actually a really good hitter for the Red Sox in 2016, but has cut his wRC+ in half two years in a row. He managed to hit worse than Vazquez last year with a 33 wRC+, so anything the Red Sox can get at the catching position that’s not horribly bad would be a relief. That may come in Blake Swihart, but it does not seem like he has the same handle defensively as Vazquez or Leon, which appears to be the priority for the Sox.
I’m nitpicking here and there, but overall the Red Sox are a really solid team with very few holes who have already won a championship together and will look to repeat in 2019. It doesn’t seem like much will go worse than last year, especially with many players seeking an improved 2019 season. However, it will be difficult to repeat a 108-win campaign even with everything going right. Plus, the new core of the bullpen is bound to blow a few games here and there as they adjust to the loss of Kimbrel in the 9th.
Predicted Record: 99-63
Player to Watch: Mookie Betts
Mookie Betts isn’t just a player whose stats you should watch. You NEED to watch Mookie play as much everyday baseball as possible. He is an absolute electric factory who will show you something new every single day. Whether it’s one of his four three-homer games (which is tied with Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds among others for seventh-most ever and just two away from the lead), or hitting for the cycle, or making jaw-dropping plays in right field, or doing things on the basepaths that will make you stand out of your seat, Mookie Betts will entertain you. Another season similar to 2018 and the best player in baseball argument may not be so clear cut anymore. Not to mention the fact that he is an amazing human being and delivered food to the homeless at 2 a.m. after Game 2 of the World Series.
Player to Watch: Michael Chavis
Chavis may not be competing for a spot early in 2019, but by the end of the season it may be impossible to keep him in the minors because all he does is rake. He hit 31 homers over A+ and AA in 2017 and was in a good position to continue his success and compete for a spot on the Sox by the end of 2018, but a PED suspension halted that plan. He still managed to play 46 games last season, most of which in AA, and hit 9 homers with an OPS of .919. With Rafael Devers as an obvious roadblock at third base, Chavis has been moved around to all positions in the infield, with second base as a likely landing spot with Dustin Pedroia’s injury concerns. Chavis hit a home run to the opposite field in his first Spring Training game, which shows the type of raw power he possess that can be dangerous for major league pitching if he gets the chance this season.
Player to Watch: Eduardo Rodriguez
When you mention Eduardo Rodriguez to Sox fans, you may get a variety of reactions, some rolling their eyes because of his injury-prone past, some praising his potential, some just shrugging their shoulders and the last one may be the most accurate. E-Rod, as he is known, pitched the best he had as a Red Sox the first half of last season with a 3.44 ERA in 19 starts. However, an ankle injury due to a collision sidelined him for a month-and-a-half and once he returned, he managed just a 5.40 ERA in 25 innings. He is supposedly healthy in Spring Training, so this may be the year Rodriguez finally puts it all together and gives the Sox 25 or more starts, which he has been unable to do in his first four seasons with the club.
NEW YORK YANKEES


2018 Record: 100-62 (2nd in AL East)
2018 Payroll: $180,098,151 (6th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
1. LF Brett Gardner, .245 AVG/.331 OBP/.385 SLG, 1.2 WAR   
2. RF Aaron Judge, .251 AVG/.368 OBP/.501 SLG, 4.6 WAR
3. DH Giancarlo Stanton, .267 AVG/.354 OBP/.569 SLG, 4.4 WAR
4. CF Aaron Hicks, .247 AVG/.348 OBP/.430 SLG, 3.3 WAR
5. C Gary Sanchez, .245 AVG/.322 OBP/.483 SLG, 3.2 WAR
6. 3B Miguel Andujar, .279 AVG/.321 OBP/.481 SLG, 2.0 WAR
7. 2B Gleyber Torres, .257 AVG/.329 OBP/.438 SLG, 2.2 WAR
8. SS DJ LeMahieu, .269 AVG/.333 OBP/.388 SLG, 2.0 WAR
9. 1B Luke Voit, .262 AVG/.336 OBP/.458 SLG, 1.4 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
1. Luis Severino, 196.0 IP/3.45 ERA/1.14 WHIP, 4.5 WAR
2. James Paxton, 172.0 IP/3.46 ERA/1.15 WHIP, 4.0 WAR
3. Masahiro Tanaka 153.0 IP/ 3.93 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 2.6 WAR
4. JA Happ 168.0 IP/4.10 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 2.8 WAR
5. CC Sabathia 117.0 IP/4.55 ERA/1.37 WHIP, 1.3 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
In an offseason where the Yankees were expected to sign a major free agent deal, they stayed relatively quiet and still improved. The first move was to re-sign veterans Brett Gardner and CC Sabathia to one-year deals. Both bring a veteran presence to a team full of young players, are relatively inexpensive, and fill a needed role. Later in November, the Yankees made their biggest move of the offseason, trading for Mariners ace James Paxton. In exchange for Paxton, the Yankees sent elite prospect Justus Sheffield and two other lower prospects. The Yankees rotation was their biggest weakness in 2018 and this trade helped improve that. If the injury-prone Paxton can stay healthy, the Yankees seem to have improved significantly.
In early November, it was announced the shortstop Didi Gregorius would need Tommy John Surgery and miss the first couple months of the season. With a void in the middle infield and no real backup, the Yankees needed to sign someone to play shortstop. In January the Yankees signed SS Troy Tulowitzki and 2B DJ LeMahieu. It is currently not clear as to what the exact setup of the Yankees infield will be, but a lot of this will be cleared up through Spring Training.
The Yankees filled the rest of their pitching depth by signing RP Adam Ottavino, RP Zack Britton, and SP JA Happ, and allowing RP David Robertson to sign with Philadelphia. The final move the Yankees made was trading the extremely disappointing Sonny Gray to the Reds in exchange for a prospect, opening a much-needed spot on the roster. Though the Yankees did not sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, they were still able to significantly improve for 2019.
2019 SEASON PREVIEW
The Yankees have a lot to look forward to in 2019, but at the same time, a lot is still uncertain. Most predictions have the Yankees finishing with a top-three record in the league, which I think is fair seeing their offseason improvements. Coming into the season, there are still a lot of unknowns regarding certain position player and pitcher roles.
The biggest question coming into the season is how Aaron Boone will manage the infield situation. Shortstop Didi Gregorius injured his elbow at the end of 2018 and is not expected to return until July. The Yankees signed aging shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and second baseman DJ LeMahieu to help fill the space, but the exact way Boone will set up the infield is not clear at this point.
One certainty is Miguel Andujar will be the starting third baseman. Though his defense last year was abysmal, the Yankees still seem to believe in his dedication to improving. Another infield starter will be former top prospect Gleyber Torres. While Torres did not have a stand-out year like teammates Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar, he finished with a 121 DRC+ which was tied with Hicks and one point above Andujar. Torres will be coming into his sophomore year and is poised to have a great season.
Moving on, Troy Tulowitzki will try to stay healthy in 2019 and hopefully get some play time. The former superstar shortstop did not play at all in 2018 due to multiple injuries. Reports are that he is coming into Spring Training lighter than he used to be and in better shape. If Tulowitzki can stay healthy, he could be an important asset for the Yankees while Gregorius is not available. The final player competing for a spot in the infield is former Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu has not seen much success outside of Colorado in the past, triple-slashing .229/.277/.422 in away games in 2018. He has experience playing all four infield positions and could be a reliable and experienced backup.
The first base starter is another question that is still up in the air. Luke Voit finished last year on an absolute tear hitting for a 194 wRC+ over the last two months of the season. Voit won the starting spot at first and is currently slated to start in 2019. His competition will be the continually disappointing Greg Bird. Bird reportedly showed up to training camp weeks early to get into shape, but his career lackluster triple slash of .214/.302/.434 shows that his chance at a starting spot might already be gone. Voit will most likely regress in 2019, but unless he significantly underperforms, the spot seems to be his.
To round out the infield, the starting catcher will again be Gary Sanchez with Austin Romine as his backup. Sanchez had an underwhelming 2018, but much of his poor performance could be due to bad luck. BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) is a statistic that measures a hitter’s batting average on balls in play. Typically, a players BABIP is pretty consistent from year to year; however, Sanchez’s BABIP fell from .304 in 2017 to .197 in 2018. Sanchez’s average exit velocity decreased by an insignificant .4 mph from 2017 to 2018. From watching many Yankees games, it seemed like Sanchez regularly hit balls right at fielders. Sanchez will bounce back in 2019 and be a major contributor this year.
The Yankees designated hitter will obviously be Giancarlo Stanton. Not a lot more has to be said about the former NL MVP. He is coming into his second year as a Yankee and will be more accustomed to the stadium and New York atmosphere than he was last year.
The outfield is a much simpler situation than the infield. Aaron Judge will be in right field, Aaron Hicks will be in center, and Brett Gardner will start in left field. Clint Frazier will seek to place himself into the outfield as the season goes on. Frazier sat out most of 2018 because of persisting concussion symptoms. The former top prospect, Frazier is a young, electric player with a lot of love for the game. He will most likely contend with Gardner for the left field spot.
As typical, the Bronx Bombers will rely mostly on their stacked lineup in 2019. While the pitching is good, many of the pitchers are aging and injury prone. Staying healthy will be of utmost importance for the Yankees rotation in 2019. Going through the rotation, Severino and Tanaka seem like the best bet for consistency. Severino is an established top 10 starter in baseball after putting up back to back seasons over 5.5 fWAR. For Masahiro Tanaka, 2019 will be his sixth season in the MLB. He has pitched an average of 165 innings a year with a career ERA of 3.59. He is extremely streaky. At times his splitter is straight unhittable and sometimes he serves up meatballs like an Italian chef. Tanaka will be a good second or third pitcher who can come through in big games.
The other three projected starters are James Paxton, JA Happ, and CC Sabathia. The former ace of the now-tanking Mariners, Paxton will look to stay healthy in 2019. Paxton has accrued about 12 fWAR over the last three seasons even though he has never pitched more than 161 innings in a season. If he can stay healthy, Paxton will make a very formidable number two in the Yankees rotation. Paxton also has no postseason experience so we will see how effective he is late into the season and in October. On the other hand, Happ and Sabathia will be 36 and 38 respectively in 2019. Though Happ and CC have experienced late-career renaissances, they are both still aging will likely not play as well as last year. These three pitchers will complete the pitching rotation for the Yankees.
As it was in 2018, the bullpen is again loaded with talent. The Yankees said goodbye to David Robertson this offseason, but signed relievers Zack (Zach) Britton and Adam Ottavino. The roles in the bullpen will likely be similar as they were last September with Ottavino replacing Robertson. Aroldis Chapman will still close games; He will be set up by Dellin Betances, Ottavino, or Britton. Chad Green and Jonathan Holder will pitch in the lower leverage situations.
In his second year as manager, Aaron Boone will have much higher expectations. He will again have access to a deep bullpen and now has experience using it. Boone will also have a lot of choices for every place in the lineup. For example, Rotochamp.com predicts Brett Gardner batting first, but Boone could try putting Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks, or even Aaron Judge there.
Overall, expectations are very high for the Yankees in 2019. The team has improved from 2018, especially if they stay healthy. The AL East division race between the Yankees, Red Sox, and dark horse Rays will be thrilling throughout the whole season. Given all this, the Yankees should make the playoffs and have a very good chance of winning it all in 2019.
Record Prediction: 98-64
Player to Watch #1: C Gary Sanchez
Gary Sanchez had a nightmare year in 2018 and will look to wake up and bounce back in 2019. After putting up 4.4 WAR in his first full season, Sanchez was hyped to have another elite season in 2018. However, Sanchez was troubled with injuries and serious bad luck as I mentioned above. If Sanchez can stay healthy and perform as he is expected, he will be a serious candidate for Comeback Player of the Year.
Player to Watch #2: OF Clint Frazier
A lesser known player to watch this year is Clint Frazier. Another player who struggled with injuries in 2018, Clint Frazier will compete with Brett Gardner for the starting spot in left field. Frazier has been MLB ready for over a year now, but because of reoccurring concussions and no room in the outfield, has not gotten many chances to play. A former top prospect, Frazier has performed well in the minor leagues, hitting a .832 OPS. “Red Thunder” will try to prove himself this season and hopefully find a new nickname after his outspoken displeasure with it.
Player to Watch #3: SP CC Sabathia
The future Hall of Famer, CC Sabathia, recently announced his plan to retire following the 2019 season. While Sabathia is no longer on the level of dominance as he used to be, he will look to reach two impressive milestones in his final year. Though wins are no longer held up to the same standard as they used to be, CC is currently at 246 wins. He is four away from the 250 milestone and one away from cracking the top 50 in all-time wins. The second milestone CC will look to reach is strikeouts. Coming into the season, CC will need fourteen strikeouts to reach 3,000 becoming the seventeenth pitcher to reach that milestone.
TAMPA BAY RAYS


2018 Record: 90-72 (3rd AL East)
2018 Payroll: $51,129,166 (30th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
All player projections for 2019 from Steamer
1. CF Kevin Kiermaier, .238 AVG/.306 OBP/.395 SLG, 2.6 WAR
2. LF Tommy Pham, .256 AVG/.352 OBP/.430 SLG, 3.3 WAR
3. 2B Joey Wendle,  .255 AVG/.303 OBP/.374 SLG, 1.0 WAR
4. DH Avisail Garcia, .255 AVG/.311 OBP/.423 SLG, 0.2 WAR
5. 1B Ji-Man Choi, .241 AVG/.334 OBP/.418 SLG, 0.8 WAR
6. RF Austin Meadows, .265 AVG/.315 OBP/.436 SLG, 1.3 WAR
7. SS Willy Adames, .248 AVG/.323 OBP/.381 SLG, 2.0 WAR
8. C Mike Zunino, .210 AVG/.283 OBP/.410 SLG, 1.5 WAR
9. 3B Yandy Diaz,  .271 AVG/.363 OBP/.371 SLG, 1.0 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
1. Blake Snell, 189 IP/3.24 ERA/1.20 WHIP, 4.0 WAR
2. Charlie Morton, 152 IP/3.50 ERA/1.23 WHIP, 3.0 WAR
3. Ryan Yarbrough, 105 IP/4.48 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.7 WAR
4. Tyler Glasnow, 135 IP/3.92 ERA/1.34 WHIP, 2.0 WAR
5. Yonny Chirinos, 100 IP/4.27 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
Baseball is not a game of pity, but when a team wins 90 games and misses the playoffs, it’s an inevitable feeling. The Rays responded to this disappointment with one of the better offseasons in franchise history. This began on December 12th, when the Rays signed Charlie Morton to a two-year, $30 million-dollar deal (the largest free agent contract in franchise history). Coming off his first career All-Star appearance and three straight seasons with a K/9 higher than 9.4, Morton slots well into the second spot in a rotation that needed a veteran presence.
The Rays quickly followed that up with one of the more underrated moves of the offseason, one which may have gone unnoticed to many fans. In a three-team swap with the Indians and Mariners, the Rays sent longtime heralded prospect Jake Bauers to the Indians for versatile infielder Yandy Diaz. Bauers’ rookie season failed to live up to expectations despite a 95 wRC+, a testament to just how rapidly the prospect glitter and shine can fade away. While trading away Bauers left a temporary opening at first base, Yandy Diaz has the potential to become a true talent for the Rays. Ranking 24th in exit velocity (92.1 MPH) among batters with at least 100 at-bats last season, Diaz only managed to hit ONE home run all season long. His extreme groundball tendencies are trending in the right direction, and his hard contact rate increased from 32.8% in 2017 to 44.4% in 2018. Diaz may never become a player who hits more than ten home runs, but factor in his versatility and ability to consistently make contact and the Rays have a truly valuable player on their hands whom one figures they can help continue improving.
Earlier in the offseason, Mike Zunino and Guillermo Heredia were acquired from the Mariners in exchange for Mallex Smith (who had quite a significant impact on the team last season). While Heredia serves as insurance for another inevitable Kevin Kiermaier injury, it will be Zunino whose impact will be felt throughout the organization. He remains a below-average offensive contributor (84 wRC+ in 2018), but his true value lies in his ability to maneuver a pitching staff. Consistently ranking as one of the better defensive catchers in the game, Zunino may be key in the development of Tyler Glasnow and Brent Honeywell later on in the season. A young starting pitcher is only as good as his battery-mate, and Zunino’s defensive impact is key to the continued development of this young but highly promising pitching staff.
The final key move of the offseason was to bring in Avisail Garcia on a one-year, $3.5 million deal. Essentially serving as the replacement of Carlos Gomez, who disappointed in his own one-year deal with the Rays, Garcia will split time between DH and right field. Over his career, Garcia has been a roughly league-average player, but the potential for a breakout season (137 wRC+ in 2017) will always be present in a player with his skillset.
All told, the Rays added approximately 10 wins (including the departures of Smith, Gomez, and CJ Cron) with financially flexible, short-term contracts that allow the team to remain competitive in 2019 without damaging the franchise’s long-term payroll outlook. As franchise owner Stuart Sternberg continues to wheedle the city of Tampa for a new stadium, these offseason moves address the improvements that needed to be made on the field while providing ownership the financial flexibility to explore new stadium sites and avoid the possibility of relocation, which has unfortunately been a cloud this franchise for the past half-decade.
2019 SEASON PREVIEW
The road to building off their surprise 90-win season will be a bit more interesting. Expecting AL Cy Young Blake Snell to replicate his 2018 is a tall ask, and there may be regression coming his way. This doesn’t mean he’ll become a bad pitcher, but an ERA closer to 2018 xFIP of 3.18 is more likely than another sub-two ERA. Tyler Glasnow (who is further analyzed later in this piece) is the x-factor for this rotation. If he can replicate his short bursts of success from 2018, he can very well become the pitcher many expected him to become as he rose through the Pirates minor league ranks. Overall, the rotation is well-rounded but not very deep. This is of little to no concern for the Rays, who will continue to use their “Opener” strategy to give starting pitchers an extra day or two of rest between starts on occasion.
The strength of this team, as hinted by the presence of the Opener, is the bullpen. Jose Alvarado and his 3.15 xFIP head a bullpen which was in the top 10 in nearly all statistical leaderboards. Ryne Stanek excelled in his role as opener, with an ERA of 3.38 in the role with well over 11 strikeouts per nine innings. The hidden gem in the Rays bullpen remains Chaz Roe, Tampa Bay’s own version of Adam Ottavino. He throws an elite, wicked slider with one of the best spin rates in the game. This past season, the Rays helped his harness this untapped weapon to post a BB/9 lower than 4.0 for the first time in his career.
Here’s the bold prediction for 2019. The Rays middle infield (Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Daniel Robertson) will combine to produce 10 bWAR for the Rays in 2019. Adames’ 2018 was a tale of two stories, with .604 OPS in the first half and .818 OPS in the second half. Growing pains should always be expected with any young player, and Adames’ strong second half may be a sign of what is to come in 2019. Joey Wendle had an absolutely outstanding rookie season and is firmly entrenched as the team’s second baseman, and Daniel Robertson’s positional versatility will bring back memories of the ultimate jack-of-all-trades Ben Zobrist’s time in a Rays uniform.
The outfield is the one area in which the Rays may simply hit or miss. While the upside of an outfield with Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, Avisail Garcia, and Austin Meadows is tremendous, there is also considerable risk with each of these players. With Garcia and Kiermaier, the concern lies within their inability to stay healthy over the course of a full season, and running on artificial turf for 81 games a season (90 if you add Toronto) isn’t necessarily welcoming to an athlete’s knees. Tommy Pham’s second half resurgence after being traded from the St. Louis Cardinals paved the way to a 1.071 OPS and 194 OPS+. One of the few full five-tool talents in the game of baseball, Pham may very well be the best offensive asset in Tampa Bay, and if he can keep his vision issues in check during 2019 he should have no problem producing another well above-average season patrolling left field. Austin Meadows really concerns me. He burst onto the scene batting .409 with the Pirates in May, but fell off considerably since then, hitting .230 from June to the end of the season. Once a consensus Top 50 prospect in baseball, Meadows’ stock had dropped considerably as a result of injuries and relatively uninspiring performances in the minor leagues, and it seems quite plausible that his May performance helped the Pirates salvage some trade value rather than paint a picture of the player he may be.
Record Prediction: 91-71
Prove me wrong, Tampa Bay. I genuinely hope you do. It’s tough to ask a team to improve on 90 wins, and it’s even harder when that team is in the same division as two teams that are likely to win 100 games this coming season. The beauty of the American League is that even if the Yankees and Red Sox win 100 games each, a path to the playoffs exists for Tampa Bay as the second wild-card. They will face steep competition from the Athletics, Angels, and Twins, but this team is well positioned to compete and secure the second wild-card.
Player to Watch: Kevin Kiermaier 
In what sounds like a broken record regarding numerous promising major leaguers, injuries have simply had no mercy with Kiermaier. Despite playing in only 88 games last season, he still managed to muster 2.5 bWAR. Look deeper into the numbers though, and there’s legitimate reason for concern. While defense has always been his calling card, he has made consistent offensive improvements until last year, where he only posted an 80 OPS+ (after a 113 OPS+ in 2017). As a centerfielder heading into his age 29 season, there’s not much reason to remain optimistic about his health considering he’s only played in 291 games in his last 3 seasons combined. It also doesn’t help his cause that he ranked 305th out of 332 major leaguers in exit velocity last season (84.5 MPH), leading to further skepticism of a potential bounce-back offensive season. His ability to stay on the field will determine his success this coming season, as his defense has shown no signs of deteriorating to this point. It’s highly unlikely Kiermaier hits .217 again this coming season, so a 3-4 win season is very well within reach. Remember that the Rays were comfortable trading away Mallex Smith and his 3.4 bWAR, so the franchise is clearly confident in Kiermaier’s ability to regain his form this coming season.
Player to Watch: Tyler Glasnow
The headliner of the Chris Archer trade, Glasnow finally showed glimpses of the potential that made him one of the most tantalizing prospects in baseball before injuries and ineffectiveness withered away that promise of greatness. In only his second game with the Rays, Glasnow struck out 9 batters in just 4 innings, albeit against a weak Orioles lineup. Looking forward to 2019, it will be interesting see if Glasnow continues to increase his slider usage (non-existent prior to 2018, 8.9% with the Pirates and 14.2% with the Rays). He remains an interesting player to observe, because there is no guarantee that the success he experienced as a starter with the Rays will repeat itself in 2019. Given the Rays’ propensity to use the Opener, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Glasnow transition and truly blossom in this role were he to face adversity as a starter in 2019. Unsurprisingly, his 4.24 ERA as a reliever compared to a 5.93 ERA as a starter makes the possibility of Glasnow transitioning into a dynamic bullpen role a lucrative one for both himself and for the Rays. Glasnow may very well become a right-handed version of Josh Hader if he does eventually transition into a regular role in the bullpen.
Player to Watch: Nate Lowe
For a team that is extremely deep on the field at both the major and minor league levels, first base remains a bit of mystery for the Rays. Enter Nate Lowe: another mid to late round draft pick on which the Rays have struck gold. Across three levels in 2018, Lowe slashed .330/.416/.568 with 27 homeruns. Over his minor league career, he has walked at a 12% clip while striking out in 18% of his plate appearances. While his defense won’t win him any gold gloves, former GM Jim Bowden describes Lowe as a prospect “who can swing it and has loud, lofting line-drive power”. The Rays will likely start their 2018 organizational player of the year at AAA Durham, but a promotion to the big leagues in June seems plausible given the lack of depth at the position for the Rays.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS


2018 Record: 73-89 (4th in AL East)
2018 Payroll: $150,946,147 (11th)
Projected 2019 Lineup: 
1. LF Billy McKinney, .252 AVG/.318 OBP/.462 SLG, 0.9 WAR
2. SS Lourdes Gurriel Jr, .281 AVG/.309 AVG/.446 OBP, 0.4 WAR
3. 1B Justin Smoak, .242 AVG/.350 OBP/.457 SLG, 1.7 WAR
4. DH Kendrys Morales, .249 AVG/.331 OBP/.438 SLG, 0.2 WAR
5. CF Kevin Pillar, .252 AVG/.282 OBP/.426 SLG, 2.0 WAR
6. RF Randal Grichuk, .245 AVG/.301 OBP/.502 SLG, 2.1 WAR
7. 3B Brandon Drury, .169 AVG/.256 OBP/.260 SLG, -0.5 WAR
8. 2B Devon Travis, .232 AVG/.275 OBP/.381 SLG, -0.5 WAR
9. C Danny Jansen, .247 AVG/.347 OBP/.432 SLG, 0.7 WAR
Projected Rotation:
1. RHP Marcus Stroman, 102.1 IP/5.54 ERA/1.48 WHIP, 1.5 WAR
2. RHP Matt Shoemaker, 131 IP/4.94 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 0.6 WAR
3. RHP Clayton Richard, 158.2 IP/5.33 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.7 WAR
4. RHP Aaron Sanchez, 105 IP/4.89 ERA/1.56 WHIP, 0.7 WAR
5. LHP Ryan Borucki, 97.2 IP/3.87 ERA/1.32 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
This offseason for the Blue Jays was quiet. With no big-name signings, the Jays are more focused on veterans that can try to perform here and be traded at the deadline for potential prospects that could have a future in this organization. The most notable transaction was the release of Troy Tulowitzki, especially given that he had two more years on his contract and was owed $38 million. Tulowitzki had his moments with the Blue Jays, but for the most part, he found himself on the disabled list, including missing all of last season after having surgery on both heels. The team felt it was time to move on even with the remaining salary left on his contract.
Recent pickups such as Clayton Richard and Matt Shoemaker will compete for a spot in the rotation, while Freddy Galvis enters the mix for playing time in the infield. David Phelps will compete for a bullpen spot, as well as John Axford, who signed a minor league deal. These are all unexciting signings, but the Blue Jays look to try and get the most value out of these players. Richard, who finished with a 5.33 ERA in 158.2 innings, should be an innings eater for the team in 2019; however, Blue Jays fans certainly hope the young pitchers such as Sean Reid-Foley and Thomas Pannone can pitch well enough to edge out Richard and take their place in the rotation long term. Matt Shoemaker has dealt with his fair share of injuries the past two seasons, and he will attempt to rebuild his value with the Blue Jays. While his 4.94 ERA this past season was not impressive, his 3.35 FIP offers some optimism for Blue Jays fans.
On the offensive side, the most notable addition is Freddy Galvis. He gives the Jays depth in the middle infield position, which is much needed given the injury history of Devon Travis and the loss of Tulowitzki. Possessing a strong glove, he should provide some competition for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and offer the Blue Jays some flexibility and a veteran presence.
SEASON PREVIEW
The Blue Jays are squarely in the middle of their rebuild. This team is filled with developing young players, and there is almost a 0 percent chance that they compete for a playoff spot. What makes this an interesting season to the more hardcore fans, however, is the position battles that will occur throughout the year between older veterans and young guns. I would say there are generally three types of players for the Jays this year.
The first group is the veterans, a list of players including Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Brandon Drury and Randal Grichuk. The position these players are in is very interesting. Smoak will most likely be dealt, as Rowdy Tellez attempts to show that he is the future at first base. He is a solid switch hitter that would be a good fit for any contender looking for a bat. Stroman and Sanchez are both trying to rebuild their value after injury filled seasons. If they both bounce back, they could be potential trade chips or extension candidates.
Grichuk and Pillar are in similar situations. Both outfielders have solid defense, but have had some question marks with their bats. They key difference between them is how hard they hit the ball. While the 30 year old Pillar is likely who he is at this point of his career, the 27 year old Grichuk has shown the power potential (with a .502 SLG in 2018) to be a force in the Jays lineup for years to come.
Brandon Drury is in a curious situation for the Blue Jays. His stronghold on third base will likely be temporary, as top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is expected to reach the majors in mid-April. Acquired as part of last season’s J.A. Happ deal, Drury has supposedly fixed the migraine issue that plagued him throughout his whole career. If that helps fix his vision, he could revert back to his 2016 form, when he had a wRC+ of 102. If he improves his hitting, he could be traded for a position of need or move over to the middle infield.
Second, there are the recently acquired veterans who are trying to rebuild their value and the Jays will be looking to trade for potential pieces at the deadline. Freddy Galvis, Clayton Richard, Matt Shoemaker and David Phelps fall into this category. Each of them is trying to improve their value, so when the trade deadline comes around, they could be dealt to a potential contender looking for reinforcements to help out.
The last group is the most intriguing — the young prospects who are looking to prove that they belong in the long-term plan. These players include Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley, Thomas Pannone, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Billy McKinney and Danny Jansen.
Borucki is projected to have a starting spot in the rotation, especially after posting a 3.80 FIP during his rookie season. Pannone, meanwhile, is not expected to start the year in the rotation, but he will have a chance to claim a spot as the year progresses. Both made starts for the Blue Jays in 2018 and had an uneven performance. Reid-Foley has more upside and with better control has a real opportunity to cement his standing in the rotation. Pannone is more on the outside. A lefty with sits around 88 MPH, he relies on deception, movement and command to succeed. While he has proven that it can be effective in the past, he has also gotten hit hard.
Hernandez will look to keep up his hitting; however, he must improve on a his -11 UZR in the outfield. Gurriel, the younger brother of Astros infielder Yuli Gurriel, had a 103 WRC+, and showed at times he could be the future shortstop. However, he also showed he can kick the ball around and not make plays. This year is about him improving his defense while building off a solid offensive year. McKinney was the second player to come over in the Happ trade and he has a solid 2018 offensive season posting a 112 WRC+. If he can continue hitting well, he could be another player forcing his way into the Jays future plans. Jansen was one of the Jays top prospects last year and when called up he showed his offensive upside with a 115 WRC+. While is DRS was -2, he is still young enough to try and improve. If he can build off an impressive offensive showing last year and get his defense to an average level, he could be the Jays future catcher and possibly one of the best catchers in the MLB.
If each of these players can improve off last year, the Blue Jays have found a good young core to build around, especially when superstar talents Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette arrive in the Major Leagues. If not, the team might have to look elsewhere as they prepare for their top prospects to arrive. This season will be about battles for the future, who gets traded and who is good enough to lead this team to contention in a few years. Blue Jays fans hope that many of those questions can be solved with good years from both young players and veterans. It is an interesting time to be a Blue Jays fan, and how this season shapes up will impact how quickly they can contend. 
Record Prediction: 75-87 
Player to Watch: SP Marcus Stroman
Marcus Stroman is the closest thing the Blue Jays have to a star at the moment. After experiencing arm issues early last spring, he never truly regained form. In 102.1 IP, he had an unsightly 5.54 ERA and 1.476 WHIP. However, he is only two seasons removed from his breakout year, where he posted 3.09 ERA in 201 IP and led the MLB in highest ground ball rate.
Interestingly enough his FIP was only .01 off from last year. While this a slightly above average FIP it shows that he was not as bad as last year suggests, but also, he was not as good as 2017 really suggested. Going into his age 28 season, I would expect a season closer to 2017; however, he will be hard-pressed to have a complete replication due to his low K/9 rate. Look for Stroman to have a bounce back year if he can remain healthy.
Player to Watch: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guerrero is the most hyped Blue Jays prospect and the consensus #1 prospect in all of baseball right now. No one has ever gotten a scouting grade of 80/80 on hitting before Vlad. He has proven that he can handle every league he plays in, posting .381/.437/.636 with 20 home runs in 408 plate appearances between AA and AAA this year. What also makes this so impressive is he only struck out 38 times. In an age where players strike out more than ever before the ability to make contact, this only increases his value. While he did miss time with a knee injury, it was not severe and when he returned, he continued to rake. His hitting ability is electric and watching him will be a treat to any baseball fan, especially for Jays fans in a season that will most likely be forgettable. 
The only thing keeping Vlad in the minors is the service clock. If the Blue Jays wait until mid-April to call him up, they get an additional year of team control. GM Ross Atkins has already made comments that would suggest Vlad will not get the call until after this deadline. The Blue Jays have stressed they want Vlad to be completely ready both offensively and defensively for his call up. While offensively he looks completely ready, his defense is a little less solid and there are already suggestions that he will end up at designated hitter. 
Player to Watch: Elvis Luciano
In a season where the Jays won’t be contending for a playoff run, I find the most interesting storyline of the spring to be Elvis Luciano. Luciano is a Rule 5 pick by the Blue Jays this past offseason. He is currently 19 and has never played above rookie ball. What makes this such an interesting pick is how risky it is for the Jays. While he has electric stuff, for the Blue Jays to keep him in the organization he must finish the 2019 season on the 25-man roster. This could potentially be a very important piece to the Blue Jays future, but they must find a way to keep him on their roster. With a fastball that gets into the mid 90s and a curveball that can generate swings and misses he is an intriguing piece. 
It is hard to bring statistics into this conversation, as rookie ball and the MLB are about as far apart in professional baseball. While he was injured for much of the season, his stats were quite impressive when he was on the mound, with a 2.88 FIP and a 11.45 K/9 in 11 IP. The Blue Jays are gambling with a high-risk high-reward player in the draft, and they will do as much as they possibly can to ensure they can keep this young player. This will be an intriguing storyline throughout spring as he tries to make the team, and throughout the season as he and the Blue Jays attempt to keep him around. If he makes the team out of Spring Training, he will be the Blue Jays youngest pitcher in franchise history, a milestone currently held by former closer Roberto Osuna. 
BALTIMORE ORIOLES


2018 Record: 47-115 (5th in AL East)
2018 Payroll: $61,693,782 (28th)
Projected 2019 Lineup:
1. CF Cedric Mullins, .258 AVG/.313 OBP/.410 SLG, 1.4 WAR
2. 2B Jonathan Villar, .250 AVG/.319 OBP/.389 SLG, 1.0 WAR
3. LF Trey Mancini, .261 AVG/.318 OBP/.444 SLG, 0.9 WAR
4. DH Mark Trumbo, .247 AVG/.306 OBP/.454 SLG, 0.5 WAR
5. 1B Chris Davis, .203 AVG/.297 OBP/.399 SLG, 0.0 WAR
6. 3B Renato Nunez, .239 AVG/.299 OBP/.421 SLG 1.8 WAR
7. RF DJ Stewart, .240 AVG/.320 OBP/.402 SLG, 0.6 WAR
8. SS Richie Martin, .237 AVG/.296 OBP/.338 SLG, 0.2 WAR
9. C Chance Sisco, .236 AVG/.313 OBP/.355 SLG, 0.9 WAR
Projected 2019 Rotation:
1. Dylan Bundy, 183.0 IP/4.86 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 1.5 WAR
2. Alex Cobb, 181.0 IP/4.88 ERA/1.42 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
3. Andrew Cashner, 166.0 IP/5.56 ERA/1.56 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
4. David Hess, 108.0 IP/5.92 ERA/1.53 WHIP, -0.2 WAR
5. Nate Karns, 92.0 IP/4.73 ERA/1.38 WHIP, 0.9 WAR
OFFSEASON RECAP
The Orioles offseason was defined by their decision to overhaul the front office and coaching staff. Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter did not have their contracts renewed after the tumultuous 2018 season that saw the Orioles hit rock bottom. Mike Elias was hired away from the Houston Astros replace Duquette, and has already impressed Orioles fans by showing a commitment to analytics, international scouting, and developing a farm system – all of which were mediocre to non-existent during the previous regime. Additionally, the Orioles replaced veteran manager Buck Showalter with Brandon Hyde, who served as the Chicago Cubs bench coach under Joe Maddon for the past couple of years. Hyde has been praised by many for his communication and leadership abilities, which will be critical as the Orioles launch their rebuild.  
In terms of player acquisitions, the Orioles did not do much. The only major league free agent they have signed so far is pitcher Nate Karns, who missed all of last year after having elbow surgery. His career 4.37 ERA and experience as both a starter and reliever will be useful for the rebuilding Orioles squad, and he can be controlled through arbitration in 2020 if the team likes what they see. The team also signed veteran shortstop Alcides Escobar on a minor league contract, and he is expected to compete with Rule 5 additions Richie Martin and Drew Jackson for the starting shortstop and utility roles. (It also means that the Orioles now possess the two worst hitters in terms of wRC+ but let’s pretend that’s not the case).
Meanwhile, the Orioles continued to say good-bye to a number of their veteran pieces. Infielder Tim Beckham and catcher Caleb Joseph signed 1-year deals with the Mariners and Diamondbacks, respectively. Long-time center fielder Adam Jones is still a free agent, and could eventually find his way back to Baltimore to serve as a veteran leader if his market does not change soon.
2019 SEASON PREVIEW
The Baltimore Orioles are entering the season with a lot of question marks. Gone are the days of Jones, Machado, Schoop, Britton, O’Day, Brach, Tillman, and Gausman populating the clubhouse and giving the Orioles a reasonable expectation at a playoff push. Instead, the new regime is starting from scratch and trying to develop a new core to compete in a few years.
The starting rotation will be headlined by veteran holdovers Alex Cobb, Andrew Cashner, and Dylan Bundy. After posting a 4.24 ERA in his first season as a full-time starter in 2017, many Orioles fans expected Bundy to break out in 2018. While he silenced any questions about his health by making 31 starts and throwing 171 2/3 innings, he threw for an unsightly 5.45 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, and became the first starter in MLB history to give up four home runs without recording an out in a May 8thstart against the Kansas City Royals. Alex Cobb, who the Orioles signed to a 4 year/$57 million contract very late into last year’s Spring Training, looked like Ubaldo Jimenez 2.0 in the first half of the season, posting a ghastly 6.41 ERA in 17 starts. He quickly turned it around in the second half, posting a sparkling 2.56 ERA in 11 starts, and the Orioles are hoping his 2019 numbers will be closer to that output with a full Spring Training to build up his arm strength. Cashner had the worst numbers of the trio, giving up nearly 2 more runs a game in 2018 (5.29) than his fantastic 2017 season with the Rangers (3.40). The Orioles are banking on bounce back seasons from this group, with the expectation that they will either stick around to serve as a veteran presence on a young team or be shipped out for prospects.
Beyond Cobb, Cashner, and Bundy, the Orioles have many options to fill out the back half of their rotation. If he proves to be healthy, Nate Karns appears to have the inside track at the #4 spot. However, he will face stiff competition from second-year starters David Hess and Yefry Ramirez, who showed some flashes last season, as well as deadline acquisitions Luis Ortiz and Cody Carroll. It would behoove the Orioles to give these young arms a chance to sink or swim in 2019, and see whether or not they will be part of the next winning Orioles team.
The bullpen, the backbone of the Orioles since 2012, was finally dismantled at the trade deadline, as Zach Britton, Darren O’Day, and Brad Brach were all traded away. Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier are the only two locks for the 2019 bullpen. Givens struggled at times last season, but finished strong, posting a 3.99 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP and taking over the closer job following the trade deadline. Givens is expected to resume his role as the closer to start the season, but he could also be moved at the trade deadline. Meanwhile, Bleier was in the midst of a breakout season in 2018, posting a 1.93 ERA before his season ended prematurely due to a lat strain. Health permitting, he is expected to pitch critical innings for the 2019 bullpen. 
The team has no shortage of options to fill out the rest of the staff. Miguel Castro, Tanner Scott, Paul Fry, Jimmy Yacabonis, and Evan Phillips were among the many relievers the Orioles auditioned last season, and all of them figure to receive more opportunities in 2019. Mike Wright has been tantalized the Orioles with his talent for years, but struggled to a 5.55 ERA in 2018. Although he possesses one of the more intriguing arms in the organization, he will need a strong Spring Training to stick with the team.
In addition to the pitching staff, the Orioles will not be lacking for competition for their starting lineup. I’ll start with the bad to get it over with – Chris Davis is expected to be in the Orioles starting lineup. I have harped upon in too many articles just how bad his 2018 season was, so I won’t do it again here. Given the fact that owner Peter Angelos, who was the driving force behind this mess, has ceded control of the team over to his sons, there is a chance that the Orioles simply cut their losses with Davis if he continues to perform poorly. Let’s pray that is the case.
The rest of the infield will feature players that are getting paid a lot less than Davis. Jonathan Villar, who the Orioles acquired as part of the Jonathan Schoop trade, was fantastic down the stretch in 2018, and has cemented a spot in the middle infield and atop the Orioles lineup. The other middle infield is expected to be filled by some combination of veteran Alcides Escobar or Rule 5 draft picks Richie Martin and Drew Jackson. Renato Nunez is the current frontrunner to be the Opening Day starter at the hot corner. His defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially for a fanbase that was accustomed to seeing Manny Machado make dazzling plays at third base, but the team is intrigued by his bat.
In the outfield, the team has a number of intriguing, young options. Trey Mancini took a step back after his strong rookie season. Despite hitting 24 home runs, his wRC+ dropped 25 points from 118 to 93. As a converted first baseman, Mancini’s defense has still left a lot to be desired, and while he is expected to start the season as the Orioles’ left fielder, he could easily move to first base or the designated hitter spot if/when the team moves on from Davis and Mark Trumbo. Cedric Mullins replaced long-time Orioles starter Adam Jones in center field during the second half, and responded by posting a .235/.312/.359 line in 45 games. He brings a speed dimension to the Orioles that has been lacking in previous seasons, with a combined 23 stolen bases between three levels 2018, and is expected to continue to bat atop the lineup and receive an extended audition in center field in 2019. 
Austin Hays rose up the prospect rankings after a dominant 2017 season that earned him a September call-up to the Major League squad; however, his 2018 season was nothing short of a disappointment. He posted an 89 wRC+ in 66 games in Double-A Bowie, and missed most of the season with an ankle injury. Despite his rough season, he is still very much in the Orioles plans and he is expected to get an opportunity to hold down a corner outfield spot for the team. DJ Stewart, the Orioles 2015 first round pick, made his major league debut this past September after a strong showing in Triple-A Norfolk. 
Mark Trumbo rebounded a bit from his dismal 2017 season, as his wRC+ improved from 81 to 107, and he slugged 17 home runs in 90 games. Knee injuries shelved Trumbo on multiple occasions in 2018, however, and he is essentially only a designated hitter at this stage of his career. Entering the last year of his contract, the Orioles are hoping he swings a hot bat to start off 2019 so they can make room for younger players.
Last but not least, the most interesting position battle for the 2019 Orioles will come at catcher. Chance Sisco was expected to lock down the starting job in 2018; however, he struggled badly in 63 games in the Major Leagues and ceded playing time to veteran Caleb Joseph and fellow rookie Austin Wynns. Joseph is no longer with the organization, but Sisco and Wynns will battle with veteran catcher Andrew Susac for two spots on the Opening Day roster in 2019.
Record Prediction: 57-105
Last season, I predicted the Orioles would finish 78-84. I think my prediction is much more accurate this time.
Player to Watch #1: OF Yusniel Diaz
After being acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado deal, Yusniel Diaz quickly shot to the top of the Orioles prospect list, and for good reason. While he does not possess elite power, he is a very capable all-fields line-drive hitter and possesses a strong batting eye. He averaged more walks than strikeouts with Double-A Tulsa before being traded to the Orioles. Although he slumped a bit upon joining the Orioles organization, he still possesses all the tools necessary to become a solid big league contributor. He is expected to spend most of the season in the minor leagues, but if he can continue to wield a strong bat, it is possible he could get a September call-up in 2019 and an extended audition in the majors in 2020.
Player to Watch #2: OF Ryan Mountcastle
Ryan Mountcastle possesses one of the most exciting bats currently in the Orioles farm system. He had a fantastic showing in Double-A in 2018, posting a .297/.341/.464 line in 428 plate appearances. He slugged 13 home runs on the season, but he could easily hit for 20 or more home runs as he matures. Mountcastle should find his way to the Major Leagues in 2019, although there are questions as to what position he will play. After being drafted as a shortstop, he moved to third base in 2018 and is now working out at first base in Spring Training. Regardless of the position, Mountcastle has already exhibited many of the tools to be a force in the major leagues, and the team hopes he will pair with Diaz to form a formidable offensive core for years to come.
Player to Watch #3: SP DL Hall
The Orioles first-round pick in the 2017 draft, DL Hall dazzled in his first full season in the minor leagues, posting a 2.10 ERA with a 9.5 K/9 in 20 starts and shooting up many prospect lists. Scouts are very high on his fastball and curveball; however, he needs to work more on developing his changeup to be able to effectively deploy it in the major leagues. He finished the season on a tear, giving up no more than one run in an outing in his last 13 starts in Single-A Delmarva, despite the fact that he was nearly three years younger than the average player in the South Atlantic League. He is likely to move up to High-A Carolina League to begin the 2019 season. While Hall still has a ways to go before reaching the majors, the Orioles and their fans are certainly happy with the early returns.


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