NCAA TOURNAMENT 2019

PREDICTING THE SWEET 16 GAMES

The first weekend of the 2019 NCAA Tournament is over with the Sweet 16 is set, and we have predictions for who will survive and advance.

College basketball fans salivate all season long about the NCAA Tournament and the calamity of March Madness. The upsets, the buzzer beaters and all of the thrilling moments all make this time of year truly special. But while there have been several wild and heart-stopping instances (looking at you, Duke and UCF) through the first two rounds, the tournament has been quite chalky leading to the Sweet 16 — even if only one perfect bracket exists after 48 games.

Yes, only 16 teams remain alive in the 2019 NCAA Tournament and only two of those teams — No. 12 Oregon in the South Region and No. 5 Auburn in the Midwest Region — are not “supposed” to be there in regards to being the highest possible seed to reach this point. In fact, both the East and West Regions have the top four seeds that have advanced to the Sweet 16.

On one hand, hoops fans that love to see the Cinderella reel off upset after upset are left wanting after these first two rounds. The Oregon Ducks might be a 12-seed coming into the second weekend of the tournament, but they’re also a power conference program making it this far and are hitting their stride right now. So it feels less like they’re wearing a glass slipper and more like they’re just playing to their potential.

However, the other side of the coin is that the Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament should be phenomenally fun to watch. While there haven’t been many upsets, the end result is that we get the top seeds, the de-facto best teams in March Madness, starting to face off with one another. As fans, you have to get excited about that.

As these teams match up, though, will it continue to be chalk all the way to the Final Four? Or will we start to see some upsets in this NCAA Tournament? We’ll try and figure that out as we predict every game in the Sweet 16.

4 FLORIDA STATE VS. 1 GONZAGA (WEST REGION) – THURSDAY, MARCH 28

Despite the fact that things have been chalky in the NCAA Tournament to this point, there has been some excitement and worry for most teams. However, that hasn’t truly been the case for the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The top seed in the West Region may have watched Baylor try to make a run in the Second Round, but Mark Few’s team has largely been going about business in a dominant fashion to this point.

In the Sweet 16, the Zags will go up against a Florida State Seminoles team that has been intriguing to this point. Leonard Hamilton’s team struggled a bit in the First Round as they got past Vermont, but they rebounded tremendously in their following game. Despite Ja Morant doing everything in his power, Florida State thrashed Murray State to advance to this game.

Florida State has been a fascinating team all season, playing terrific defense that’s bolstered by their length and depth as a whole. Moreover, ACC Sixth Man of the Year Mfiondu Kabengele has been a force off the bench, averaging 21.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and two blocks in the tournament to this point.

While Kabengele has been fantastic, the guards for Florida State to this point have left a bit to be desired as a group. When you take that and put it against a Gonzaga team that is not only great defensively overall, but has the size inside with Rui Hachimura and Branond Clarke to either stifle or match Kabengele, in addition to having guards that can lock down defensively, the Zags should continue to remain comfortable and pick up a win.

Prediction: Gonzaga wins

3 PURDUE VS. 2 TENNESSEE (SOUTH REGION) – THURSDAY, MARCH 28

One of the most impressive performances of the Second Round came via the Purdue Boilermakers. After a tough win over Old Dominion, they matched up with the defending national champion Villanova Wildcats. They didn’t look like the title-winners against the Boilermakers, however, as Carsen Edwards lit up the Wildcats and pushed Purdue to the Sweet 16 with a 26-point victory.

The opposite can be said of the Tennessee Volunteers, however. While Admiral Schofield and the Vols beat the Iowa Hawkeyes to a pulp in the first half, leading by 25 points at one point, they choked away the lead in a major way, actually seeing the game go to overtime. Grant Williams starred in the extra frame to pull out the win for Tennessee, but it was hard to watch them in that one and in a win over Colgate that was quite close and be too confident.

Having said that, when you look at the Purdue game, what we saw from Edwards truly looks like a bit of an anomaly more than anything else with how their star guard has been playing. He went off for 42 points on 57.1 percent shooting, but entered the contest with four-straight games of shooting 33.3 percent or worse from the field.

With the speed and length that Tennessee has defensively, in addition to their size, you can’t expect Edwards to replicate the type of performance that he had against Villanova. And while the Volunteers are certainly troublesome at this point, they have enough talent to once again do just enough to get the win and move on to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Tennessee wins

3 TEXAS TECH VS. 2 MICHIGAN (WEST REGION) – THURSDAY, MARCH 28

Both the Michigan Wolverines and Texas Tech Red Raiders are teams that simply went about their business and executed their gameplans to perfection to get to the Sweet 16. For John Beilein’s team, they handled Montana easily in the First Round with a 74-55 win and then continued to show their defensive prowess as they held the Florida Gators to just 49 points in their Second Round victory to get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

As for the Red Raiders, they got a slight push from Northern Kentucky in the First Round, but ultimately only allowed 57 points in the victory. Their master-class effort came on Sunday evening in the Round of 32 as Texas Tech faced a high-octane Buffalo Bulls offense that seemed poised to make a run. Instead, the Red Raiders vaunted defensive effort put the clamps on them, leading to an impressive 20-point victory.

If you’re expecting a ton of scoring when Texas Tech and Michigan face off on Thursday night in the West Region semifinals, you need to go ahead and change those expectations. The Red Raiders allow just 57.5 points per game on the season and the Wolverines are even better, conceding just 52 points per contest. This is going to be a defensive battle.

Having said that, there is reason to have more faith in the Texas Tech offense for this game. Michigan’s offense has been suspect at times this season, and that’s against lesser defensive teams than the Red Raiders. Plus, Jarrett Culver is an unsung star in this tournament that can take over and push his team to the Elite Eight in the big moments.

Prediction: Texas Tech wins

12 OREGON VS. 1 VIRGINIA (SOUTH REGION) – THURSDAY, MARCH 28

In the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, it appeared like disaster might strike for Tony Bennett and the Virginia Cavaliers once again as the No. 1 seed in the South Region faced the Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs. They were down by 14 points in the first half and trailed at halftime as well. Lucky for them, they bounced back to get the gigantic monkey of losing to UMBC off their back, which carried over to a solid win over Oklahoma.

Meanwhile, there were questions about whether or not the Oregon Ducks could continue a hot streak that led to winning the Pac-12 Tournament into March Madness, but they’ve clearly answered that. Not only did Payton Pritchard and the Ducks dominate in upsetting Wisconsin in the Round of 64, but they then withstood a bit second-half run from UC Irvine on Sunday night to pull back ahead and move on to the Sweet 16.

This is another matchup where you can expect defense to be the defining trait of the game as Oregon has allowed just 54 points per game, bettered only slightly by UVA at 53.5 points allowed per night. In that type of matchup, though, you have to favor the team with more weapons.

Though Kyle Guy has been downright bad for the Cavaliers to this point, they have multiple guys who can step up with De’Andre Hunter, Ty Jerome and even tournament breakout star Mamadi Diakite. Though Oregon won’t make it easy, Virginia is too talented for them and should advance to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Virginia wins

3 LSU VS. 2 MICHIGAN STATE (EAST REGION) – FRIDAY, MARCH 29

Amidst the largely drama-less first two rounds of March Madness was the first game in the Second Round on Saturday between the LSU Tigers and Maryland Terrapins. Despite holding a big lead early on, LSU faltered down the stretch and let the Terps climb back and have a chance to win — this after struggling to put away Yale in the First Round. Tremont Waters, however, came up huge with a game-winning lay-up right before the buzzer to get the Tigers into the Sweet 16.

The Michigan State Spartans looked like they might be on the wrong end of some drama in the First Round as they had a time with the Bradley Braves, but they pulled together down the stretch to get an 11-point win. More importantly, Tom Izzo’s team bounced back from that against Minnesota and blew out their Big Ten foes.

As explosive and as talented as LSU is, what the Maryland game very much showed was that they are both inexperienced and feeling the effects of not having Will Wade on the sidelines as he remains suspended. When trying to stave off a comeback or another high-quality team, coaching matters, and they don’t have the head man out there for them.

That’s going to be a problem against Izzo and an experienced Michigan State team. Moreover, a suspect LSU defense is going to have a time against a versatile Spartans offensive attack, especially if Cassius Winston continues to play at the level that he has to this point. This could be the most one-sided game of the Sweet 16 as Sparty moves on.

Prediction: Michigan State wins

5 AUBURN VS. 1 NORTH CAROLINA (MIDWEST REGION) – FRIDAY, MARCH 29

To say that the Auburn Tigers did everything in their power to give away their First Round game against New Mexico State would be an understatement. In fact, if the Aggies had hit their free throws late in the game or drawn up a better final play, the Tigers wouldn’t even be here. But they survived and then the streaky-shooting team got hot against Kansas in the Second Round to blow out the Jayhawks.

Now they come up against a North Carolina Tar Heels team that, aside from the first half against Iona, has played quite well in this tournament. Yes, they trailed at halftime to the Gaels, but in the three halves of basketball since then, they have outscored their opponents (played Washington in the Round of 32) 136-94.

What Auburn showed in the blowout victory against Kansas is that, when they are getting out running and hitting 3-point attempts, they are quite tough to beat. However, that style of play is also exactly the way that Roy Williams’ Tar Heels want to play. And, more importantly, North Carolina is simply better and more versatile in that style of play.

If the Tigers stay hot shooting from long range, the Tar Heels could be pushed in this game. Having said that, they have such a balanced group that can attack in so many ways that it’s hard to see Auburn coming up with enough answers in an up-and-down affair to win. Thus, North Carolina should be able to pull ahead and advance.

Prediction: North Carolina wins

4 VIRGINIA TECH VS. 1 DUKE (EAST REGION) – FRIDAY, MARCH 29

The Zion Williamson train almost came to an abrupt halt in the Second Round against the UCF Knights. While the Duke Blue Devils’ star freshman had a monster game statistically, he was pushed perhaps more than he has been in any other game this season. Moreover, the rest of the Blue Devils were pedestrian against a tough UCF defense and ultimately were inches away from the Knights’ game-winning attempt at the end of the game from falling through the cylinder.

To that point, though, the Virginia Tech Hokies weren’t overly impressive in either of their first two games in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, even if they did eventually secure victories over Saint Louis and Liberty. They have continued to be stifling defensively, allowing just 55 points per game to this point, but haven’t been great on the offensive end of the floor.

This matchup is highly intriguing considering that the Hokies beat the Blue Devils in the regular season. Of course, Williamson was not in the lineup for Duke in that matchup, but Virginia Tech guard Justin Robinson also missed that game. Thus, this is the first meeting with both teams at full strength.

What no one seems to want to mention right now, though, is that Duke really doesn’t look great outside of Zion. RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish are talented, but just not a great team as a whole. When you take that into a game against a great defensive team in Virginia Tech, after UCF pushed them as well, we’re looking at another close game and our first No. 1 seed falling out of the tournament.

Prediction: Virginia Tech wins

3 HOUSTON VS. 2 KENTUCKY (MIDWEST REGION) – FRIDAY, MARCH 29

After the Kentucky Wildcats put a hurting on Abilene Christian in the First Round, they went into an upset special against the Wofford Terriers and were pushed to the limit, despite the fact that Wofford star guard Fletcher Magee was silenced and had an awful shooting night. Kentucky pulled out the win, but only by six points as they look worrisome without P.J. Washington in the floor due to injury.

Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars are a team demanding that they be taken seriously. Kelvin Sampson’s team went 31-3 in the regular season and then dominated Georgia State in the First Round before really owning Ohio State in the Round of 32 as well. They’ve quietly been one of the most impressive teams in the NCAA Tournament to this point, even if no one has noticed just yet.

If there’s one advantage that Kentucky has on paper against Houston, it’s having size to attack a relatively small Houston lineup. Having said that, the Cougars just rendered Ohio State big man Kaleb Wesson largely ineffective in the Second Round, showing that they can combat size even if they can’t match up with it pound-for-pound.

On top of that, Kentucky’s offense simply looks hard to trust without Washington on the floor. While his status is currently up in the air for the Sweet 16, it does look like he could miss this game. We’re going to operate under the assumption that he won’t be in the lineup for the Wildcats and, if that’s indeed the case, Houston will again put college basketball on notice by moving on to the Elite Eight.

Prediction: Houston wins