WHICH MLB CLUB COULD BE THIS YEAR'S SURPRISE CONTENDER?

A year ago, the Houston Astros were favored to win the American League West, and they did. After the Astros, the Los Angeles Angels looked like the second-best club with a good shot to win a wild card. The Oakland Athletics looked like they might finish anywhere from third to last in the division. FanGraphs projected Oakland for 78 wins in 2018 before the season began. The A's defied the projections and took the league's second wild-card spot with 97 wins, getting great seasons from Matt Chapman and Jed Lowrie as well as a great bullpen performance led by Blake Treinen.

In the world of prognostications, Oakland surprised us all a year ago. Naturally, we're all wondering who could be this year's unexpected contender. Here are the candidates to be this year's A's.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The Pirates have largely been forgotten this winter. The Cubs and Brewers return most of their talent that produced 95-win seasons, the Cardinals added All-Star Paul Goldschmidt, and the Reds made multiple trades to get them closer to contention. The Pirates made no moves of note to add to a team that won 82 games a year ago, and FanGraphs has the team projected for 77 wins and a last-place finish.

If the Pirates are going to surprise people, they are going to need big seasons from Starling Marte, Jameson Taillon and Chris Archer and a lights-out year from their bullpen. Marte is now 30 years old, and he has been a roughly 4-WAR player his entire career. He posted the highest slugging percentage of his career in 2018, and if he can keep that up or maybe improve it, he might be one of the best players in the league.

On the pitching side, Taillon took a huge step forward last season, with a 3.46 FIP and 3.21 ERA, including even better numbers in the second half. Archer struggled after his trade to the Pirates, but he has shown the potential to be much better. Right there, the Pirates could have two of the top 20 pitchers in baseball if Taillon repeats his second half and Archer rediscovers his form from his Rays days. With Felipe Vazquez, the Pirates have a dominant closer, with Keone Kela providing excellent setup work. Richard Rodriguez is an underrated reliever as well.

In a very competitive National League, a mid-80s win total could earn a team a playoff spot, and the Pirates are in position to get there and upset expectations.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Unlike the Pirates, the Padres have made some noise this offseason by signing Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300 million contract in an effort to move their window of contention forward. The Padres are probably still a year away. Top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. was hurt last season, which robbed him of a little developmental time, Luis Urias hasn't yet been successful in the majors, and Chris Paddack might be the team's best pitcher, despite no innings above Double-A. San Diego looks like it needs one more year, but.

With Manny Machado, the team acquired one of the best players in baseball and probably the best player in the NL West. Eric Hosmer struggled last season, but he has some weird odd-year voodoo, so a rebound isn't out of the question. Franmil Reyes looks ready to break out; the 23-year-old outfielder is a massive human being with a decent walk rate, and he hit 16 homers in half a season of playing time a year ago. The Padres will get solid production from Austin Hedges and Francisco Mejia at catcher, and if Urias and Tatis can contribute, the team could surprise.

The rotation is likely to be a weak spot after Joey Lucchesi and Paddack, but the bullpen looks to be in decent shape with Kirby Yates closing games and Craig Stammen capable near the end of any contest. The Padres' staff doesn't have to be strong all season. With their deep minor league system, the club just has to get off to a good start. If the team is in the hunt in June, a few more big moves could have the Padres playing in October.

TEXAS RANGERS

It was a bit of a struggle to find an American League team that might rise up this season. The Yankees, Red Sox, Indians and Astros all return enough to get them to the playoffs, the Rays won 90 games last season, the Twins are projected to win 85 games, the Angels have Mike Trout, and the A's surprised us all last year. As a result, we veer a little off the radar to end up with Texas.

Last season, the Rangers had one of the worst offenses in the majors after adjusting for league and park, and they haven't done much to make the team better in that regard. If the team is going to make a surprise run, it is going to need to focus on run prevention. The Rangers already have Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor up the middle. Moving Joey Gallo to outfield and bringing in Asdrubal Cabrera for third base might upgrade two positions. Getting a full season out of Delino DeShields will help as well, and the team signed pitch-framing extraordinaire Jeff Mathis in the offseason to help steal strikes behind the plate.

The rotation is filled with questions, but the Rangers could throw enough at the wall that it just might stick. Lance Lynn's peripherals were better than his ERA would indicate, and he gets the benefit of going through spring training after signing late a year ago. Mike Minor was solid last season, and with another year under his belt post-surgery, he might improve a tick. Drew Smyly, Shelby Millerand Edinson Volquez all have complicated injury histories, but they've been solid starters in the not-too-distant past. If they can keep the game close, Jose Leclerc is probably the sport's most underrated reliever, with help from Jesse Chavez and Chris Martin. The team would need to have everything go right to get into the AL's wild-card picture, but it's not impossible.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Arizona lost its best pitcher to free agency in Patrick Corbin and its best position player in trading Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis, and A.J. Pollock departed to Los Angeles via free agency as well. That's generally not a good route to contention, but we shouldn't write off Arizona completely. While the lineup lacks star power, every position has a player with at least average production. If David Peralta and Eduardo Escobar repeat their solid 2018 seasons and Jake Lamb recovers from shoulder problems in a lost year, the Diamondbacks should have a well-rounded lineup.

On the mound, Zack Greinke should provide another good year. Robbie Ray struck out 31 percent of opposing batters last season and continues to show the stuff of an ace. Zack Godley was solid last season and could be again. If Luke Weaver can develop a solid third pitch, he has a ton of promise as well. Merrill Kelly is a wild card after pitching in Korea the past three seasons. The rotation could keep this team in contention in the National League, in which no team stands out and nearly everybody has a chance.

In the pen, Greg Holland pitched well for the Nationals after the Cardinals moved on, and Archie Bradley should provide a ton of key outs. Yoshihisa Hirano and Andrew Chafin could help in late innings, and Taijuan Walker could come back at some point and help in the rotation or in relief.

The odds are against all four of these teams, but each has the potential to make a move forward with the right kind of luck. One of the keys for Oakland last season was its great bullpen, and if one of the teams above ends up being this year's A's, look for the bullpen to play a key role.