PREDICTING 2019 WIN-LOSS RECORD FOR EVERY MLB TEAM

I do this every year, and every year people get very mad online over what is truly an exercise in entertainment. I didn't build a sophisticated model to come up with these predicted standings; I wrote the whole thing on a flight home from Arizona, in fact, with spotty internet access from my chair in the sky. Please direct all flames to /dev/null. Otherwise, enjoy my predictions for the standings, postseason results and award winners for the 2019 MLB season.

AL EAST

The Red Sox didn't do anything to get better this offseason, but they didn't have to, between the strength of their returning roster and the youth of their lineup, with a few players likely to get a little bit or, in the case of Rafael Devers, a lot better. I worry about their rotation's health, with Chris Sale and David Price both dealing with arm trouble in 2018, and Eduardo Rodriguez, long a favorite of mine, always struggling to stay healthy.

AL EAST FORECAST

Boston Red Sox	93	69
Tampa Bay Rays	90	72
New York Yankees	89	73
Toronto Blue Jays	76	86
Baltimore Orioles	56	106

Tampa Bay had one of the quietest 90-win seasons I can remember in 2018, since it didn't even get the Rays within five games of a playoff spot and left them 18 games out of first place. But they've brought the whole core back, added Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino and Yandy Diaz, and they'll get full seasons from midyear acquisitions Tommy Pham, Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow. Blake Snell isn't going to repeat his Cy Young-winning performance, but the Rays have reinforcements coming, including Brent Honeywell by midyear and perhaps Brendan McKay soon after.

The Yankees probably had the best team on paper coming into spring training, but their pitching staff already carried quite a bit of injury risk, and we've seen that begin to affect them already with injuries to Luis Severino and Dellin Betances. They're likely to score more than enough runs to get to the playoffs, but run prevention could be a weak spot at least in the first half of the year. Toronto's first real rebuilding year will have some high points when Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette arrive, and they have a little upside potential if Marcus Stroman and/or Aaron Sanchez come back healthy and effective, although in that case those pitchers might end up on the trade market. Baltimore will be nigh unwatchable this year, with a pitching staff that will probably be the worst in baseball, compounded by a tough schedule in a deep division.

AL CENTRAL

Cleveland is still the favorite to win the AL Central despite the Indians' choice to do little to improve the team this winter, a bit of coasting because only one team in the division is even a moderate threat to their run of titles. This is not a championship-caliber outfield, the bullpen is the weakest it has been in at least four years, and the Indians don't have much depth in their rotation, so there are ways this could go wrong.

AL CENTRAL FORECAST

Cleveland Indians	94	68
Minnesota Twins	87	75
Chicago White Sox	74	88
Kansas City Royals	69	93
Detroit Tigers	64	98

That would open the door for a sneaky-good Twins team, boosted by a series of incremental improvements this winter that were low-dollar enough to limit the risk of any single move. There is no team likely to benefit more from signing Dallas Keuchel, as a good Keuchel year would probably boost their odds of winning this division from 20 percent to 40 percent or more. The White Sox will be better this year and should see improvements from at least some of their returning young players, as well as a big splash from Eloy Jimenez, but I don't see the run prevention here to get them to 82 (or more) wins unless Reynaldo Lopez, Lucas Giolito and Carlos Rodon all take steps forward.

The Royals put two players on my list of breakout candidates, but the team as a whole will be the worst it has fielded in six years or so, with problems with both run prevention and even more with getting enough guys on base to score runs. The Tigers' rebuild also continues, and just got uglier with the loss of Michael Fulmer for the season, leaving them with the second-worst rotation in the AL, and little chance they see significant impact from the farm system until later this year.

AL WEST

The Astros might be the best team in baseball, but of the candidates for that honor they have the softest intradivision schedule, and they also have two top prospects ready to step in and help at some point this spring in Forrest Whitley (No. 4 overall in my top 100 prospects) and Kyle Tucker (No. 17). They don't really have a weakness on the roster.

AL WEST FORECAST

Houston Astros	100	62
Los Angeles Angels	85	77
Oakland Athletics	82	80
Texas Rangers	73	89
Seattle Mariners	70	92

The Angels really need to invest in a little outside starting pitching at some point -- they're also an obvious landing spot for Keuchel -- but despite the lack of famous names, their rotation is probably league average if not a tick better. Just a 4.00 ERA from Matt Harvey would boost their playoff chances a bit more, although I can't figure out what to expect from him in either workload or effectiveness. I can't project a repeat for the A's this year, given their pitching staff's reliance last year on some out-of-nowhere turns from guys plucked off the scrap heap and the presence of some questionable starters in their rotation as it stands right now. Jesus Luzardo's shoulder injury doesn't help matters, as he was probably going to spend part of the year in the A's rotation, but there's at least some chance now that we don't see him at all.

The Rangers' rotation looks highly volatile to me -- it could be awful, but I'd say three of their five projected starters are guys who could or even should be better in 2019. That said if two of their starters go down because of injuries, they don't have good internal options to replace them. The Mariners traded away a lot of talent this winter and didn't get much major league talent in return, although by year's end they should have a few pieces from their deals on the big league roster. Their season should be salvaged by adequate run prevention even though they probably won't have an above-average starter this year and they're not going to score many runs.

Postseason predictions

AL wild card: Tampa Bay over New York

ALDS: Houston over Tampa Bay; Boston over Cleveland

ALCS: Houston over Boston

NL EAST

The Nationals lost one of their best players, but they spread the money that might have gone to Bryce Harper across upgrades at multiple positions, and also get to plug in rookie Victor Robles to at least fill some of the gap left in their outfield.

NL East Forecast

Washington Nationals	92	70
Philadelphia Phillies	90	72
Atlanta Braves	84	78
New York Mets	83	79
Miami Marlins	65	97

The Phillies were a legitimate contender for the division through the end of August last year, but everything went wrong for them in September and they needed to make a few major moves this winter ... which they did, adding Harper, David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. If they fail to win the division or miss the playoffs entirely, it'll probably be a function of their rotation, which is clearly their weak spot and has two starters in it who might be better cast as relievers in Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez. The Braves did almost nothing this winter, which is a bit understandable since their farm system is so full of players close to major league ready and they had few below-average spots on the field or on their pitching staff. But with the three other contenders in the division improving, I'm sure it's disappointing to Atlanta fans to see their team largely stand pat. The Braves have starter depth for days, though, and that will probably keep them competitive all year.

The Mets made a lot of moves that were definitely moves. Some of those moves even made New York a better team. Their roster is weirdly unbalanced in a lot of ways, yet they're strong at multiple positions and in their rotation, with a couple of prospects or young ex-prospects who could break out this year. On the other hand, their fifth starter is Jason Vargas, who is not good; their fourth starter is Steven Matz, who keeps getting hurt; and they really lack depth if anything goes wrong with those two guys. The Marlins are a long way from contending, as their system is just barely starting to recover from years of weak drafts and some ill-advised trades -- Chris Paddack for a few arrows out of Fernando Rodney's quiver looks particularly bad at the moment -- and most of what came back in their big trades is either years away or not looking good so far.

NL CENTRAL

The NL Central might be the wildest and most entertaining division this season, since no team is really bad, while there's also no team clearly above the rest. The Brewers, Cardinals and Cubs all look like flawed contenders, and health or deployment of their personnel might make the difference, as I don't think there's a significant gap among those teams in talent.

NL CENTRAL FORECAST

St. Louis Cardinals	88	74
Pittsburgh Pirates	87	75
Chicago Cubs	84	78
Milwaukee Brewers	78	84
Cincinnati Reds	75	87

I feel best about how Milwaukee will use its player assets this year, given how well the Brewers did it last year, and their difficult but smart decision to let their best young arms fill open rotation spots. I probably feel the least confident in the Cubs' ability to do the same, especially with the decisions to send Ian Happ to Triple-A despite a .353 OBP last year, and their refusal to jettison Addison Russell this winter after his domestic violence suspension and year-plus of poor performance. Their bullpen also looks like a serious problem, although that could change fairly quickly.

The Cardinals are somewhere in the middle of all this, boosted a little by the addition of Paul Goldschmidt, and perhaps a good chance that they get more out of Dexter Fowler this year, and they have a bit more rotation depth than most contenders. The Reds made a few big moves to improve, and they'll be better, but they'll need a few miracles to get to the playoffs, and they're a bit worse off in the long run for this effort. The news that top prospect Nick Senzel, who should have been on the major league roster at either second base or center field, is hurt yet again is another negative, as I certainly thought he'd get at least 400 at-bats in the majors this year (and be very good). The Pirates aren't that bad either, and I have written already that I think their lineup will be better this year, but I could also see them looking to trade pieces in July because the division was too strong for them to compete.

NL WEST

The Dodgers have the second-easiest path to the playoffs, after Cleveland, even with the probability that Clayton Kershaw is just not going to be Clayton Kershaw anymore. It's nice when Walker Buehler walks through that door at the precise moment that they need him most, though. They'll see a little regression on offense this year, but I don't think any team in the division is close enough to challenge them.

NL WEST FORECAST

Los Angeles Dodgers	95	67
Colorado Rockies	82	80
San Diego Padres	82	80
Arizona Diamondbacks	75	87
San Francisco Giants	68	94

The only other team I'd give any chance to win the division is the Rockies, but they seem set to make some counterproductive lineup decisions, like playing Ian Desmond or Daniel Murphy, in a race where they don't have a huge margin for error. Their pitching looks as if it will once again be a strength, and better than the casual fan realizes because of the environment.

The Padres are sort of my sleeper team this year, not that I think they'll get to the playoffs, but that their aggressive moves this winter and in setting their Opening Day roster, which apparently will include Fernando Tatis Jr., will help them win a few extra games -- and the arrivals of other top prospects later this spring will boost them further. The Diamondbacks started their rebuild and could continue it this summer, which is why I've gone on the pessimistic side for their win total, and the Giants are already down far enough that I can't see them anywhere but last place, especially given their rotation and the likelihood that their lineup will post the worst OBP in the NL this year.

Postseason predictions

NL wild card: Philadelphia over St. Louis

NLDS: Los Angeles over Philadelphia; Washington over St. Louis Cardinals

NLCS: Washington over Los Angeles

World Series: Houston over Washington

AWARDS

AL MVP (non-Trout division): Francisco Lindor. Mike Trout will probably lead the league in WAR again, as he does, but the voters seem bored by his greatness and I think the award will go to one of the other half-dozen greats in the American League.

NL MVP: Anthony Rendon. Dark-horse nod to Manny Machado, although I'm afraid Petco will convert a few of his homers into doubles and that will hurt his standing with voters.

AL Cy Young Award: Gerrit Cole. Soft spot here for Carlos Carrasco, the least famous of the Cleveland troika, but the one I'd most want on my team for 30 starts this year.

NL Cy Young Award: Aaron Nola. I do love Jacob deGrom, but seasons like his seldom repeat.

AL Rookie of the Year: Vlad Guerrero Jr. Eloy Jimenez is the runner-up/alternative if Guerrero's injury keeps him out longer than the 20 days required to push off his free agency, but I do think Guerrero will produce well enough when he arrives that he'll win the award with his bat.

NL Rookie of the Year: Fernando Tatis Jr. I would have taken Victor Robles here, but Tatis was my No. 1 prospect this winter and he's going to make the Padres' Opening Day roster. San Diego's Chris Paddack also made a push here by making the roster, and I think he's going to be very good, but at some point they'll probably slow down his workload, and the history of the ROY award tends to favor position players over pitchers.