MY 2019 MLB SEASON PREVIEW

LOOKING AT POTENTIAL PLAYOFF SLEEPERS

Which teams could surprise during the 2019 mlb season? Let’s take a look at a few sleeper playoff teams.

How do we define a sleeper? It comes from the idea of “sleeping on”  a team, but who is generally doing the sleeping? Is it the media? Is it the fans? Is it the other teams? None of this is particularly clear, but even if we can’t necessarily define a sleeper, it can be described through examples in the past. Coming into the 2018 season, the Oakland A’s were seen by media and fans alike as mediocre, at best. But the A’s rode some unexpected performances to 97 wins and a Wild Card berth.

While there is a place in the discussion for projection systems like Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA, they miss by a lot on a few teams every year, as there are aspects of baseball that are inherently unpredictable. There are many players every season who are projected to be no more than roster-filler that end up becoming above-average performers. Conversely, there are teams with players who massively underperform or get injured that finish with a far worse record than their projection.

This is what makes baseball fun to watch over the course of a season. If the projection systems were perfect, there would be no point to watch. Every season, there are individuals and teams that create storylines that nobody expects going into the season. Each year, there are hundreds of intersecting narratives that create a fascinating story over the season.

On that note, let’s take a look at the sleeper teams that could make a surprise run at the postseason in the 2019 MLB season.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The National League has a very different outlook for the 2019 season. PECOTA projects the Los Angeles Dodgers to be the only NL team to win more than 90 games, and 12 teams project to be between 79 and 89 wins. The playoff picture is wide open, and it’s reasonable to think any team besides the Miami Marlins could make a run at the postseason.

With the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers winning more than 90 games in 2018, and the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals making significant moves in the offseason, the Pittsburgh Pirates are the one team in the NL Central that has largely been forgotten. The Pirates won 82 games in 2018, and at one point, they looked primed to make a run at a playoff spot. The surprisingly won one of the biggest sweepstakes of the trade deadline by acquiring Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays. However, the Pirates flatlined after the deadline and weren’t able to make the run in 2018 that many were expecting.

But for 2019, the Pirates have a formidable top of the rotation in Archer and Jameson Taillon, and they have some really solid position players including Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. If they’re going to contend, they will need players like Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell to finally live up to their former prospect hype.

The NL Central is extremely competitive, and many players will have to play above their projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates to make the playoffs. But people certainly are sleeping on them, and it’s possible they could make a run.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Barring a huge surprise, there are four teams in the American League that are slotted into playoff spots: the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees, the Cleveland Indians, and the Houston Astros. That leaves just one Wild Card spot for the other 11 teams in the league, and there’s no real consensus as to who is the favorite to win that final spot.

I project the Tampa Bay Rays to be the fifth-best team in the AL with 85 wins, with multiple teams slotting in just a few games behind. There’s always a chance that a team like the 2018 A’s emerges and wins 95 or more games, but as of now, it seems like there’s a real chance that a team could have a mid-80s number of wins and sneak into the playoffs.

That brings us to the Chicago White Sox. Going into the offseason, the White Sox looked poised to sign one of the marquee free agents in Manny Machado or Bryce Harper. While they made a valiant effort for each player, they were ultimately outbid. There are still a few good players left on the market, but as of now, the White Sox have had a disappointing offseason.

Nevertheless, the White Sox still have a lot of good young players that could take a step forward in 2019. Yoan Moncada struggled to make contact in his first full MLB season in 2018, but he still was about an average player. At just 23, Moncada could take a big step forward in 2019 and become the star that prospect rankers anticipated. Eloy Jimenez, acquired from the Chicago Cubs for Jose Quintana, ranks near the top of prospect lists, and his incredible performance at AAA suggests he could make an impact in the big leagues right now. Undoubtedly, the White Sox will manipulate his service time and he won’t make the Opening Day roster, but when he gets called up, he could make a big difference for this ballclub.

I project this team to win 70 games, and there are certainly questions about their rotation, especially with phenom Michael Kopech likely missing the whole season with Tommy John surgery. But it’s not too hard to see this team sneaking into the playoffs with some of their players taking a big step forward.

MINNESOTA TWINS

The Minnesota Twins have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last few years. After four last-place finishes in five years, the 2015 Twins surprised the baseball world by contending for the last Wild Card spot until the very end of the season. Pundits predicted them to build on that success in 2016, but they once again defied expectations by losing a horrific 103 games. But in 2017, the Twins had a historic turnaround by winning 85 games and securing the second Wild Card spot. But even after making some shrewd free agent moves in the offseason, the 2018 Twins won just 78 games in a historically bad AL Central.

Could the Twins continue this path of competing every other year? It’s certainly possible but not a real reason why the Twins might make the playoffs. Instead, the Twins have a pretty good team on paper. This offseason, they’ve signed impact players like Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, Blake Parker, and Jonathan Schoop.

However, for the Minnesota Twins to make the playoffs in 2019, they need some players to take a step forward. There’s hope that Miguel Sano can return to his All-Star form and this could finally be the year that Byron Buxton lives up to his billing. Outside of Jose Berrios, there are lots of question marks in the rotation, like what kind of impact Michael Pineda will have after returning from Tommy John surgery.

Nevertheless, the Twins still play in a weak division and the last spot in the American League playoffs is wide open. Compared to other teams, fewer things will have to break the Twins’ way for them to make the playoffs. But at the same time, what’s the point if they’re just going to get destroyed by the Yankees in the Wild Card Game?

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

The Arizona Diamondbacks had a heartbreaking season in 2018. After leading the NL West for most of the season, the D-Backs went 8-19 in September and finished outside of the playoffs with a mediocre 82-80 record.

In the offseason, the Diamondbacks traded their best player in Paul Goldschmidt and let Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock walk in free agency. The consensus around the league was that the Diamondbacks would take a big step back in 2019, but that might not be the case.

I project the Diamondbacks to finish with the exact same record of 82-80 in 2019, which may seem odd for a team that has lost some of their best players. But they haven’t truly torn it down like many expected them to do. They still have two potential stars in the rotation in Zack Greinke and Robbie Ray, and even beyond those two, they still have a lot of average players that can make this team competitive.