REVIEWING PRESEASON PREDICTIONS
Before the season began, we all made predictions about how the NHL
season would go, and in which directions teams would trend. Let’s see how I did
in my NHL Power Rankings.
In my pre-season NHL Power Rankings prediction post,
I tried to foretell how the season would go for all 31 teams. As I had
mentioned, I was bound to be wrong. And oh boy was I wrong.
Well, I’m well past the All-Star break, and the Stanley Cup
Playoffs are just a couple of weeks away. It’s time to dig up that old
prediction sheet and see just how right or wrong I was about each team and in
what direction they are going in right now.
At the end, I’ll count up all the things I got right, all
the things I got wrong, and all the things that are yet to be determined (yes,
those exist).
In our original post, I arranged teams into five tiers.
- The
Elite Tier – The really good teams that’ll contend for the Cup.
- The
Bubble In Tier – Playoff bound likely, but usually won’t stand in
the way of the elite.
- The
Bubble Out Tier – Not quite good enough, still have work to do to
get back in the playoffs.
- The
Charlie Kelly Tier – Your wild card teams, as in we had no idea
what they could be, too many volatile factors.
- Tier
of the Tank – Jack Hughes, here we come.
I’ll keep the teams in the tier they originally appeared in,
just to show how off I really was. Once you’re done reading, you may take a
minute or two to laugh at me and make internet jokes in the comments, I’ll take
it on the chin.
The Elite Tier
This tier was going to be pretty easy. The good teams were
easily identifiable, and have proven such with winning many games. So I was
mostly right here.
BOSTON BRUINS
Original Prediction – Elite, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes
The Bruins were always going to be a playoff team this year,
and sure enough, they are. As we predicted, their core remained potent
offensively. However, their offense is still top heavy, and they are going
through a myriad of injuries to key players, really testing their depth.
David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, Patrice Bergeron, Torey
Krug, and even Zdeno Chara missed time. Even a player they acquired at the
trade deadline barely lasted a week before getting hurt (Marcus Johansson).
Despite all that, they are a lock to play the Maple Leafs in a first-round
series come playoff time that’ll get the playoff hockey nerves tingling early.
They’ll be fine.
NASHVILLE
PREDATORS
Original Prediction – Elite, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes
Coming into the season, everyone thought the Central
Division would be the controlling power in the Western Conference, with the
Predators as one of the main contenders. However, the Preds also have suffered
through injuries to key players, such as Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, and
PK Subban.
As a result, their offense isn’t as good as it could be, and
their “elite” status can come into question. However, they’re still very solid
defensively, and their goaltending is still very above average, both of which
are key come playoff time.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Original Prediction – Elite, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes
This seems to happen on a yearly basis. The Penguins start
off slowly, and everyone thinks the era of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin is
finally reaching its endpoint. Then the Pens go on a crazy streak of some kind,
win lots of games, and secure a playoff spot and play against the Capitals at
some point.
Looking past the conspiracy theory of NBC ratings, this is
happening yet again, and the Penguins are just where we expected them to be,
only this time from a Wild Card spot. This is possibly due to other teams
becoming better than them, but either way, you’ll see the Pens in the playoffs,
for sure.
SAN JOSE SHARKS
Original Prediction – Elite, Up
Were we right? Yes and Unclear
Things were looking very rosy when the Sharks traded for
Erik Karlsson over the summer. With a monster of a defense corps between
Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic, a fantastic offense, and solid
goaltending from Martin Jones, the Sharks became an instant favorite to win the
Cup. What happened? Karlsson kept getting hurt, and Jones has had a bumpy year.
The offense is fantastic, with the breakout campaigns of
Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier, which has carried the Sharks to the elite tier. But
looking beyond this year, things get murky. Expiring contracts galore, not a
lot of draft picks or prospects in the pipes, the Sharks have work to do if
they don’t win this year.
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNING
Original Prediction – Elite, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes (Mostly)
I’ll qualify us being right on the Lightning by virtue of us
predicting they’d be near the top of the league. We just didn’t know how
ridiculously good they’d actually be. It’s nigh impossible to predict a team to
just flat out dominate the league like the mid-90’s Red Wings did.
Nikita Kucherov by himself scores more than many team’s top
two, sometimes three players combined. He, along with Steven Stamkos, Brayden
Point, and pretty much everyone else, have been scoring at will, and the
defense isn’t half bad either. Oh, throw on top Andrei Vasilevskiy, who could
get Vezina votes. We were right they’d be really good but we weren’t thinking
legendarily good.
TORONTO MAPLE
LEAFS
Original Prediction – Elite, Up
Were we right? Yes and Unclear
Toronto landed their homecoming king, John Tavares, and in
an instant, the media predicted that this would be the year for the Leafs to
finally win the Cup again. It actually started looking that way for half the
season, but for some reason, they’ve cooled off for a while and haven’t really
regained their stride.
Yes, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are still potting
goals. However, one might think that the whole William Nylander debacle may
have put the Leafs back a step, as they haven’t been as dominant since he
returned from his holdout.
This year will be very tough for them to make it far in the
playoffs, as they’ll likely have the Bruins and Lightning to get through to
even sniff the finals, and after that, they’ll have to pay Marner. Who knows
what would result of that?
WASHINGTON
CAPITALS
Original Prediction – Elite, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes
The defending champion Washington Capitals are in almost the
same position as they were last year. Regular season not as dominant as it used
to be in the earlier half of this decade, but they’ll be ready come playoffs
again.
Alex Ovechkin is still scoring all the goals, Braden Holtby
is looking just fine, and the addition of Nick Jensen and Carl Hagelin are both
excellent reinforcing acquisitions to their depth. The Capitals will have one
of the easier paths to the promised land this year, so look for them to make a
deep run again.
WINNIPEG JETS
Original Prediction – Elite, Up
Were we right? Yes and Yes
Though they haven’t shown us pure dominance yet this year,
there’s every indication that the Jets are indeed that good. Connor Hellebuyck
isn’t as great as he was last year, but the Jets are still scoring in front of
him.
Patrik Laine has been pretty cold since scoring five against
the Blues a few months ago, but there’s enough support that his struggles are
muted somewhat. Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler are both having strong years
again, and the team is still very young and has more coming through the pipes.
This year isn’t a must-win year for the Jets, but it’s
looking like they could still win it all anyway. We thought they would at the
start the year, after all.
THE BUBBLE-IN TIER
Here’s where things get messy. We had some sleeper picks
here that didn’t pan out, and some teams that are way better than just barely
getting into the dance.
CALGARY FLAMES
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Slightly Up
Were we right? No and Yes
Going into this year, our main concern with the Flames has
been their goaltending. Mike Smith is well past his prime, and has even shown
cracks this year in his main strength, puck handling. The offense we knew would
be deep, but without a good goaltender, you’ll have trouble winning games.
Enter David Rittich, and the Flames are now an elite team.
Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin both proved to be excellent acquisitions that
meshed perfectly with the roster the Flames already had. The Flames are now
battling for title of best in the West. Much better than barely getting in from
the West.
COLORADO AVALANCHE
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Up
Were we right? No and Yes
Hockey can be a hard game to predict sometimes, and seeing
how the Avalanche struggled after a strong start to the year can prove how
weird a game this is. The issues found in Colorado can be whittled down to two
categories: secondary scoring, and goaltending.
Despite the Avs being in the middle of the pack now in terms
of team save percentage, this can be credited with the good numbers being
banked at the beginning of the year. Additionally, the offense is simply too
top-heavy, relying on Nathan Mackinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and the now-injured
Gabriel Landeskog. This team could have rolled into the playoffs like we
thought they would. Turns out they just couldn’t overcome those two issues.
FLORIDA PANTHERS
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Up
Were we right? No and Unclear
The last few years, the Panthers had been doomed by slow
starts. They have just one playoff appearance in the current playoff format.
Last year, they made a mad dash for the playoffs and fell just one point short.
We thought this year they’d improve and make the playoffs with more breathing
room.
However, their goalies fell apart, to the tune of one of the
worst team save percentages in the league. To overcome the shortcomings of
James Reimer, the aging of Roberto Luongo, and inexperience of Sam
Montembeault, the team needed more offense out of Alex Barkov and Mike Hoffman
and crew. They didn’t get enough and are missing the playoffs again. What
happens next? Who knows at this point.
LOS ANGELES KINGS
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Down
Were we right? No and Yes
We knew the Kings window was closing, but I’m not sure how
many people saw that window slamming shut so fast. The offense completely dried
up, the goaltending hasn’t been good, and their star players are all passing
the peak of their career arc, or worse.
After an MVP nominating season, Anze Kopitar’s offensive
numbers fell off a cliff, and Ilya Kovalchuk isn’t nearly as potent as he was
when he left the Devils years ago. Jonathan Quick is being left out to dry, and
can’t keep up like he used to.
On top of that, the Kings still have some gnarly contracts
that will be difficult to get rid of. The glory days were indeed glorious in
Los Angeles, but it’ll take time to get back there, as things sit right now.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Up
Were we right? No and Unclear
Perhaps the team that surprised the most for making a
playoff appearance last year was New Jersey. With such a young roster, the
thought was that they can build off the success they had last year, and reach
new heights.
The faults in the team, being reliant on MVP Taylor Hall and
hot goaltending, were quickly exposed this year. Hall has missed over half the
season, and the combination of Keith Kinkaid and Cory Schneider was getting
shelled night after night.
This resulted in Mackenzie Blackwood’s emergence, which
looks good for the Devils future. On the flip side, almost their entire opening
night forward group has been either injured or traded away, which isn’t great.
The Devils will be in the lottery next month, and this summer will tell if they
can rebound.
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERS
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Up
Were we right? No and Yes
The classic Flyers problem is in goal. We thought that the
team’s issues in net would be muted by the emergence of some highly touted
prospects, as well as their current young core, and that would lead
Philadelphia to a playoff berth.
However, the Flyers’ offense didn’t perform well at all to
start the year, and their goaltending was so bad that they have broken the
record for most goalies used to start a game in a season in NHL history.
Though, one of those goalies is Carter Hart, who’s come in
and stole the show on some nights for the Flyers. His emergence is a boon to
the Flyers, who hope to ride him next year to a much improved effort. This
could lead to Gritty in the playoffs next year. The NHL might explode.
ST. LOUIS BLUES
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes (almost No to both)
The Blues had a terrible start to the year, to the point
where trading franchise cornerstones Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Pietrangelo
weren’t impossibilities. Along comes Jordan Binnington, and the Blues suddenly
become a juggernaut. They’ve returned to earth lately, but the hot streak was
enough to propel them into playoff certainty.
It’s really amazing how close most people were to counting
the Blues out in mid-January, and how close the Blues were to just blowing up
the roster and starting from scratch. They’re probably very happy they didn’t,
and are looking good for a potential playoff run. It’ll take them through the
guts of the Central division, but it’s possible that these Blues are better
than what we think.
VEGAS GOLDEN
KNIGHTS
Original Prediction – Bubble In, Steady
Were we right? Yes and Yes (before the trade deadline, anyway)
It was very difficult to repeat the magic that Vegas showed
us during last year’s campaign. This season looked like the magic wasn’t there,
and their players came back down to earth. Not that they were bad, they’ve been
locked into third in the Pacific all season long. But they didn’t have the same
gusto as last year.
Once they traded for Mark Stone, however, the team evolved
into a monster. Now, it’s looking like whoever doesn’t win the Pacific division
will have a really tough matchup with Vegas in the first round (good for us
fans!). It may be that the magic is back in Vegas, and we’ll be treated to a
bunch of elaborate pre-game ceremonies during the playoffs.
THE BUBBLE-OUT
TIER
These teams we thought would be close, but for various
reasons, on the outside looking in. Well, half of them are in the dance, and
the other half…well, one of them is the…
BUFFALO SABRES
Original Prediction – Bubble Out, Up
Were we right? Yes and Yes
I’ll give the Sabres this: the Atlantic division is a
buzzsaw. But at one point this year, after a double-digit win streak, the
Sabres not only led the Atlantic, but led the entire NHL in the standings. This
provoked people to think that the Sabres were finally for real, and their time
has come to be contenders. We now know better that you can’t judge a hockey
team by its hottest streak, and the Sabres have plummeted back down to earth.
Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Eichel, and Casey Mittelstadt all have shown signs of a
bright future in Buffalo, and the additions of Jeff Skinner and Brandon Montour
are both good signs for things to come (provided Skinner signs a contract with
Buffalo this summer). Just not this year.
CAROLINA
HURRICANES
Original Prediction – Bubble Out, Who knows?
Were we right? No and No
The first entry here that we completely missed on. The
Hurricanes went through a ton of changes over last summer, between new owner
Tom Dundon, new coach Rod “the Bod” Brind’Amour, to new players such as Dougie
Hamilton and Michael Ferland.
Carolina addressed their goalie issues with Petr Mrazek,
which shown to actually work, but only because the Hurricanes (according to
advanced stats) push the play so far against the opponents that their own
goalies have less work to do.
This, along with the finishing ability of Sebastian Aho and
new acquisition Nino Niederreiter, has gotten the Hurricanes within reach of
their first playoff appearance in a very long time. We didn’t think they’d be
here, and we had no idea where they were going. Turns out, up. Those jerks, proving
us wrong.
DALLAS STARS
Original Prediction – Bubble Out, Steady
Were we right? No and Yes
One thing we got right about the Stars was the top-heavy
offense. Outside of Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, and Alex Radulov, the Stars’ top
three scorers are all defensemen. There’s only one other forward with
double-digit scoring (as of March 22), that being Radek Faksa.
Dallas made a move to acquire Mats Zuccarello from the
Rangers to address that issue, and Zuccarello so far has averaged three points
per game in his time with Dallas (he only played two periods before breaking
his arm).
What has been carrying the Stars? Goaltending. Ben Bishop
and Anton Khudobin both have been having superb seasons, and the Stars are
enjoying one of the top save percentages in the NHL this year. If not for them,
we’d have been correct.
MINNESOTA WILD
Original Prediction – Bubble Out, Down
Were we right? Yes and Yes
The Wild have been aging for a while, but still competitive
in the Central division. But after so many early playoff exits, and the core
getting older and creakier, changes needed to happen. We knew it’d have to
happen eventually, and new GM Paul Fenton has begun getting rid of pieces. Not
sure that Nino Niederreiter trade was a good enough return, and Kevin Fiala and
Ryan Donato are shots at young up-and-comers.
But it’s not enough for Minnesota to become relevant again.
The team spent most of the season hanging around near the Wild Card before
Mikko Koivu went down with injury for the season, and are now on the outside looking
in with a couple of teams to hop over. The Wild need a rebuild soon.
THE CHARLIE KELLY
TIER
This tier was named for Charlie Day’s character from “It’s
Always Sunny in Philadelphia”, mainly because of the episode “The Gang Solves
the Gas Crisis”, with Charlie doing wacky things and yelling “Wild Card!”.
These teams were just as unpredictable due to various reasons. Well, can we
really be wrong about them? It comes down to the finer details.
ANAHEIM DUCKS
Original Prediction – ??? and Down
Were we right? Kinda and Yes
We originally thought the Ducks’ season would come down to
their health, and we were kinda right. There are only a couple of players who
stayed reasonably healthy the entire year, being Adam Henrique, Hampus
Lindholm, and Josh Manson.
Everyone else has spent time injured or traded. John Gibson
was standing on his head for most of the year, but eventually, the dam broke
and the team started to freefall. Between December 18 and February 9, the Ducks
played 21 games, won three, and were outscored 82-34 in those 21 games. Now,
the aging core will only continue to get older and more fragile, and the
paychecks will remain just as high. The Ducks are due for a reset, sooner than
later.
ARIZONA COYOTES
Original Prediction – ??? and Up
Were we right? Yes and Yes
We predicted that the Coyotes could sneak up on us with a
great full season from Antti Raanta, and decent scoring from their underrated
forward group. That mostly was correct, except Antti Raanta last played a game
on November 27. Darcy Kuemper became the starting goalie, and became a monster
in net at the turn of the calendar to 2019.
In a recent Schmooze of the Week, we discussed out
the Coyotes were getting dragged into relevance by Kuemper because the run of
play has been significantly against them at times, even when they’re winning.
But as we’ve mentioned here with other teams, if you’re
having goalie issues, things can unravel really quickly. The Coyotes have some
good young talent coming up soon, so they could make more noise next year too.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
Original Prediction – ??? and Down
Were we right? Yes and Unclear
The old guard from the early decade dynasty are still
around. Patrick Kane scored over 100 points this year, and Jonathan Toews is
just as serious. On top of that, Alex DeBrincat and newcomer Dylan Strome are
both having excellent seasons with Chicago.
However, the defense has been mostly leaky all year, and
Corey Crawford got concussed again and missed over half the season. Thus, the
Hawks have been swaying between the Western cellar and scratching at the Wild
Card all season.
Every win streak they’ve had, we all thought they could pull
it off. Then they hit a cold spell and all that goes up in smoke. The midseason
trade for Strome and Brendan Perlini can only be classified as a win, and more
moves like that could actually keep Chicago relevant longer.
COLUMBUS BLUE
JACKETS
Original Prediction – ??? and Steady
Were we right? Yes and Unclear
The X factor with the Blue Jackets this year was entirely
contingent upon the decision to either keep or trade Artemi Panarin and Sergei
Bobrovsky. Not only did the Jackets keep them, they brought in more
reinforcements with Matt Duchene and Ryan Dzingel.
This makes the future unclear, because they have just two
draft picks this coming draft, and all four players above are pending
unrestricted free agents. The Jackets are also teetering on missing the
playoffs entirely despite all that, going back and forth with Montreal and
Carolina for one of the two Eastern Wild Card spots.
They are pretty much 50/50 in the playoffs at this point,
and probably wouldn’t stand a chance in a first-round matchup with Tampa, so we
honestly have no idea what will happen to Columbus this summer.
EDMONTON OILERS
Original Prediction – ??? and Oilers
Were we right? Yes and Resounding Yes
The Oilers have been finding new ways to waste the single
most talented player the league has seen in decades, and we had a feeling this
season would continue that trend. Coach Todd McLell and was fired, Ken
Hitchcock came in and led the Oilers to a hot streak, only to see the team
retreat to the lottery section.
Now-ex GM Peter Chiarelli made questionable trades to
nitpick around a roster that wasn’t great to begin with, and got fired for it.
The interim GM is Keith Gretzky, who made no moves to sell at the trade
deadline.
On top of that, the team committed to Mikko Koskinen to be
their starting goalie, which is working out not so well. This is why we made a
special trending remark for the Oilers. Now you understand why.
TIER OF THE TANK
There were six teams in this tier at the start of the year.
A couple of these teams were obviously going to be here, so that was hard to
get wrong. A couple of other teams here we thought would be here, and totally
weren’t. If you hadn’t seen them above, you know who we’re talking about.
DETROIT RED WINGS
Original Prediction – Tank and Down
Were we right? Yes and Yes
Finally, the cleansing has begun in Detroit. The Red Wings
managed to sell a couple of good pieces at the trade deadline in Nick Jensen
and Gustav Nyquist. This summer will see a continuation of that tear-down,
which has been a long time coming. We will keep this blurb short because there
isn’t much else to talk about. The teams in the tank, we knew they’d be, so we
were right.
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Original Prediction – Tank and ???
Were we right? No and No
In our prediction, we mentioned how the team last year was
bad without a healthy Carey Price or Shea Weber, and probably would be if that
trend continues. However, we did say that if Price and Weber were healthy, and
some of the young talent comes around, the Habs could make some noise.
Max Domi, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Phillip Danault are all
having great seasons, and sure enough, Price and Weber are playing well enough
to launch the Canadiens into the playoff conversation. For the first time in a
while, no one is yelling at GM Marc Bergevin for making bad moves, so all could
actually be well in Montreal. Not quite what we thought would happen.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
Original Prediction – Tank and Down
Were we right? Absolutely not on both counts
We, along with most of the hockey world, counted out the
Islanders on July 1 for losing John Tavares to the Maple Leafs via free agency.
On top of that, they replaced serviceable goalie Jaroslav Halak with Robin
Lehner, who was coming off a tough year in Buffalo.
What happens? The defense tightens up, both Lehner and
Thomas Greiss clean their games up, and the Islanders become the stingiest team
in the league, leading to parts of the year as leaders in the Metropolitan
division.
Lately, the team has started to trend down a bit, with their
offense starting to struggle and defense starting to break, leading us to
wonder if those fancy stats that point to the Islanders being luckier than good
mean anything. But they’re playoff bound, which no one thought was possible
this year.
NEW YORK RANGERS
Original Prediction – Tank and Down
Were we right? Yes and Yes
The Rangers handed out letters to their fans saying that the
team was rebuilding, so this was a pretty easy call. Henrik Lundqvist is still
around to steal games from time to time, and that’ll be a constant for the
Rangers as long as he’s still playing. Aside from him, the team was just about
as bad as we expected, and continued selling off parts such as Mats Zuccarello
and Kevin Hayes. Now there’s room for young farmhands like Filip Chytil to come
up and get some action in. Next year, the Rangers expect to have some money
freed up to make a run at big free agents should they want to, but whether
that’s true or not matters not for this post. The Rangers were about as bad as
we thought they’d be, so we were correct.
OTTAWA SENATORS
Original Prediction – Tank and Down
Were we right? Yes and Yes
The deconstruction of their roster continued this year, and
the construction of their new arena was discontinued in an opposite trend. The
Senators traded away almost anything that wasn’t tied down, and rebuilt a farm
system that badly needed restocking. They don’t have their first round pick,
which delays the roster rebuild, but at least they have Brady Tkachuk and
Thomas Chabot to market until their new crop of players comes around over the
next few seasons. The state of this franchise is obviously in shambles right
now, but you have to imagine at some point things would bottom out, and the
only way to go would be up.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Original Prediction – Tank and Up
Were we right? Yes and Yes
We had a feeling Elias Pettersson would be good, but we
didn’t know he’d be as good as he is, to the point where the Calder Trophy is
his to lose. The Canucks are still not quite there yet, despite having some
sniffs at potential Wild Card contention this year. Though, there is a future
in Vancouver and one that’s constantly getting brighter with the farm system
churning out players who are just objectively fun to watch. Now with Quinn
Hughes into the fold for next year, the Canucks are poised to open eyes and return
to the playoffs for a change. If you want a sexy pick for next year’s surprise
team, look no further than the Vancouver Canucks.
HOW’D WE DO?
Let’s look first at how we did with our tiers and their
results:
CORRECT: 21 teams
INCORRECT: 10 teams (Calgary, Colorado, Florida, Los Angeles, New
Jersey, Philadelphia, Carolina, Dallas, Montreal, New York Islanders)
Most of these teams we overrated. In the case of Florida,
New Jersey, and Philadelphia, we thought they had it, and were just a few pieces
away. They are all nowhere near the playoffs, for various reasons. In the case
of Carolina, Dallas, Montreal, and the Islanders, we thought they wouldn’t be
good enough, yet all are right there in the thick of the race. Shows what we
know.
In terms of the trends, here’s how we did:
CORRECT: 22 teams
INCORRECT: Three teams (Carolina, Montreal, New York Islanders)
UNCLEAR: Six teams (San Jose, Toronto, Florida, New Jersey, Chicago,
Columbus)
In terms of the incorrect predictions, it was more of a factor
of everything coming together correctly at the right time for those three
teams, which we couldn’t predict would actually happen. For example, who would
have thought the Islanders’ defense and goaltending would actually be this good
this year?
In terms of the unclear decisions, we can’t determine
correctness just yet. For example, Columbus threw away their draft, and their
immediate future depends on free agency. For New Jersey, they got derailed by
injuries and bad goaltending, but those two issues could be solved for next
season, so we don’t know how good this team really is going forward once Taylor
Hall and crew are back in action.
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