WHAT YOU NEED TO
KNOW ABOUT THE TOURNEY
The end to the NFC's regular season on Sunday provided
flashbacks to the end of the NFC playoffs back in January. The Minnesota
Vikings were lifeless, while Nick Foles gave
the entire city of Philadelphia life once again.
The surprising presence of the defending champions in the
playoffs adds juice to a wide-open tournament. All six AFC participants won
between 10 and 12 games. The teams earning byes in the NFC -- New Orleans and
Los Angeles -- were far from dominant down the stretch. There are just 11 games
left in the 2018 NFL season, and it's hard to imagine many featuring a heavy
favorite. There isn't a team playing in the Wild Card Round that doesn't have a
realistic chance to make the Super Bowl,
and that's not usually the case.
Let's take a quick first look at each wild-card matchup
before checking in with the teams earning a bye.
THE BEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILD-CARD MATCHUP IN MEMORY
Let's be real. The NFL usually puts the ugliest game of the
playoffs in the Saturday afternoon time slot, before much of America is ready
to sit down for three straight hours. This is the time slot that brought
you Connor Cook vs. Brock
Osweiler, Brian Hoyer's Texans getting
shut out 30-0, Ryan Lindley throwing for 82 yards and two Texans-Bengals matchups
few fans outside of Houston and Cincinnati remember.
The Texans are
involved yet again this year, but Indianapolis-Houston is a different sort of
Saturday afternoon matchup. The return of Andrew Luck to
the playoffs after a three-year absence is nothing short of a relief. Deshaun
Watson has quietly played as well as any quarterback in the
month of December, and no wideout is more valuable to his team than DeAndre
Hopkins. With J.J. Watt and Jadeveon
Clowney rolling into the playoffs, Houston is perhaps the most
top-heavy, star-driven squad still left standing.
The Colts finished
the season winning nine of 10 games, including a crucial
Week 14 victory in Houston. Practically every aspect of the Colts,
from the offensive line to their secondary to their rag-tag receiver group, is
greater than the sum of its parts. Another win by the Colts in
Houston would pit Luck against Andy Reid in a rematch of the Colts' 45-44 victory after
the 2013 season, the first of Reid's playoff losses with the Chiefs.
That was a Saturday afternoon game, too, so they certainly haven't all been
bad.
THE GAME MOST
LIKELY TO COME DOWN TO THE FINAL PLAY
The Cowboys' one-point
victory over the Giants was typical of their season. Only one
of their 10 wins in 2018 came by more than one score (Week 6
against the Jags). Dallas' playmaking defense combined with a
stagnant passing game and a conservative head coach invites close games,
something very likely to happen next Saturday night against the Seahawks.
Seattle's
24-13 victory over Dallas in Week 3 was one of three games
the Cowboys lost
by more than one score. These teams are mirror images of each other: They have
power rushing attacks and coaches who can be too hesitant to throw on early
downs.
Seahawks coach
Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer also invite close
games. In their final three games, the Seahawks lost, beat the 12-4
Chiefs by seven and narrowly escaped overtime Sunday with a
late fourth-quarter field goal to down the
3-13 Cardinals. It's hard to imagine either the Seahawks or
the Cowboys consistently
grinding out yards in a matchup that will feature one of the best veteran
linebacker tandems, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright,
and the best upstart linebacker tandem, Jaylon Smith and Leighton
Vander Esch.
In the playoffs, the teams with the better quarterbacks and
head coaches usually win. I'll take Carroll over Jason Garrett anytime,
and Russell
Wilson is playing at a far higher level than Dak Prescott,
who has been erratic throughout the year. Amari Cooper,
who energized a struggling Cowboys offense
when he arrived in late October, has just 83 yards on 23 targets over the last
three weeks. This game will probably come down to one play at the end, and no
one is more likely to make it than Wilson.
THE CHARGERS'
WORST NIGHTMARE
Did the Chargers'
season peak in the Week 15
win over the Chiefs on "Thursday Night Football"?
That has to be the concern of the Los Angeles coaching staff after the Bolts
struggled on offense again during a win over
the Broncos before drawing the Ravens in
the first round of the playoffs.
Playing the Ravens twice
in three weeks could be viewed through a few different prisms. On one hand, the
combination of Baltimore's running game and blitz-heavy defense could be the
toughest one-week preparation assignment in football. At least Chargers Coach
Anthony Lynn and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley have a head start and can
try to learn from their first meeting, a 22-10 home
loss.
The more logical way to view the rematch: The Chargers can't
protect Philip Rivers lately,
and no AFC team has a better pass rush than the Ravens.
Rivers was held to 176 yards with two interceptions in Denver on Sunday after
throwing for 181 yards with two picks against Baltimore. Pro Football Focus'
offensive line grades for Sunday's game were a sea of red once again,
indicating that Los Angeles' front continued its late-season struggles. Chargers running
back Melvin Gordon also
left the win over Denver with an ankle injury, although he said he'd be ready to go next week.
This is not mission
impossible for Los Angeles. The Ravens were
a few plays away from getting knocked out of the playoffs entirely Sunday
against the Browns, a team with some of the big-play capability
the Chargers possess
at their best. But a road game against the AFC's best defense isn't much of a
reward for a 12-4 season. If Rivers is going to author a sentimental playoff
run, he'll have to do it the hard way.
THE ULTIMATE TEST
OF ST. NICK'S POWER
The Eagles heading
to Chicago to wrap up Wild Card Weekend is the matchup I never knew I needed.
It's a clash between the league's best defense and the league's most improbable
phenomenon: Nick Foles'
late-season magic. While Foles left Sunday's win
over the Redskins with a rib injury, it's hard to imagine the injury
keeping Foles out of the lineup in Chicago.
It's not just Foles who has improved in Philadelphia.
The Eagles'
front four has played better in December than it has all year, near the form
that brought the team a title. Darren
Sproles adds a different element to the offense, and the team
has settled on two-tight end sets with Dallas
Goedert as its most effective formation. Philadelphia's
depleted secondary has settled down, with improved play by cornerbacks Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox.
After being left for dead at 6-7, the Eagles have
played their best three games of the season in succession, not unlike the last
magical Foles run.
This is the most intriguing matchup in a weekend without any
weak links, partly because the Bears are
so rock solid. No high seed was more consistent down the stretch, and Chicago's
takedown of the Vikings was the most impressive Week 17
performance by any team. The Bears didn't have to beat Mike Zimmer on
Sunday in Minnesota while using Zimmer's Platonic ideal for a game plan. They
did it because they could.
A win by Foles and the Eagles in
Chicago would be even more surprising than any one game the Eagles pulled
off last year, but betting against Foles has been a fool's errand. It won't
quite feel like last season is over until Foles and friends lose again.
SEE YOU IN THE
DIVISIONAL ROUND
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (NFC NO. 1): It will be
tempting for the Saints and
their fans to pretend Sunday's loss
to the Panthers never happened. New Orleans sat a number of key
offensive starters, such as Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara.
Then again, New Orleans' starting defense played the entire first half,
when Panthers third-string
quarterback Kyle Allen put
up 23 points in a 33-14 rout. You try telling Marshon
Lattimore and Cameron
Jordan they weren't competing Sunday.
I don't have serious concerns about the Saints because
of this result, but it didn't come out of nowhere. New Orleans' offense wasn't
the same throughout December as it was the first three months of the season.
Sean Payton's team needed a lot of breaks -- including a phantom PI call
-- to beat the
Steelers in the Superdome in Week 16. The Saints are
the best NFC team on paper and earned the No. 1 seed, but they haven't played
like a dominant powerhouse for a while.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (NFC NO. 2): The Rams got
their mojo back over the last two weeks, with easy wins in the division to give
them a clean sweep of the NFC West. The best sign for Sean McVay's crew has
been the increased playmaking by the defense, with Cory
Littleton intercepting two passes (taking one
for a touchdown), Mark Barron
forcing a fumble and Dante Fowler
creating another turnover in Sunday's 48-32 win
over the 49ers.
Todd Gurley will
have enjoyed three weeks off to get ready for the Divisional Round. Also worth
noting: Left tackle Andrew
Whitworth -- who, according to Next Gen Stats, had played in
98.4 percent of the team's offensive snaps leading into Week 17 -- left
Sunday's game with a knee injury.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (AFC NO. 1): The Chiefs did
what they were supposed to against
Oakland, clinching the AFC's No. 1 seed while Patrick
Mahomes put up a final argument for MVP consideration. Crucial
slot cornerback Kendall
Fuller returned to the lineup and undrafted rookie
cornerback Charvarius
Ward took advantage of his second straight start, getting
valuable snaps before the playoffs. Eric Berry,
who was inactive for the game with heel and calf injuries, now has another week
to get healthy. With six straight home playoff losses, no team has more
pressure in the Divisional Round than Kansas City.
Chiefs fans
should be rooting for a matchup with the sixth-seeded Colts.
If Indianapolis doesn't win in Houston, then Kansas City gets a rematch with
either the Chargers or Ravens.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (AFC NO. 2): Throttling the Bills and Jets by
a combined score of 62-15 over the last two weeks didn't solve all of the Patriots'
problems. But the results helped ensure New England's ninth straight playoff
bye, perhaps the most ridiculous stat from a franchise full of them. That said
the Pats have never needed the week off more.
The bye allows some of the team's elder statesmen -- Tom Brady, Rob
Gronkowski, Julian
Edelman and safety Devin
McCourty, who left Sunday's game with a head injury -- to get some
rest. The Patriots were
the only undefeated team at home this year and could avoid traveling on the
road in the AFC playoffs if the Chiefs slip
up in the Divisional Round. After two down weeks, Brady finished his
season in style with four touchdowns.
The Patriots were
fortunate to get a bye and the AFC's No. 2 seed with "only" 11 wins
this season. Circumstances around this team aren't unlike the 2001 squad, when
Brady first came on to the scene. Brady is not a top-five quarterback now, but
no one viewed him that way from 2001 to '04, when the Patriots won
three Super Bowls. While Bill
Belichick doesn't have nearly the same defense he had back then, it would be
folly to completely discount the greatest coach of his era from coming up with
a few choice game plans to get his team back to another unlikely Super Bowl.
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