At the midpoint of the NHL season, teams are beginning to
assess their chances at making the postseason and preparing to make decisions
about whether to buy, sell or stand pat at the trade deadline.
While every team that is on the outside of the playoff race
has some sort of shot at a comeback, certain clubs are a lot closer than others
at making a push. Let's have a look at which teams have the best shot at
unseating a current playoff team, and how they might make a push during the
second half of the campaign.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
NEW YORK
ISLANDERS (22-13-4)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Goaltending
After years of talk about Robin Lehner's
potential, it appears he is turning a corner. The former Senator and Sabre has
an outstanding .938 even-strength save percentage in 19 games. Combined with
quality play from veteran backup Thomas Greiss and
vastly improved defense under coach Barry Trotz, the Islanders are allowing the
second fewest even-strength goals per 60 minutes. Behind another strong start
from Mathew Barzal,
they are also ninth in even-strength scoring.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: High
Sitting just one point out of a wild-card spot with games in
hand on both the Buffalo
Sabres and Montreal
Canadiens, the Isles have a strong chance at getting into the
playoffs if they are able to add some secondary scoring at the trade deadline.
The question, however, is whether Lehner's play is sustainable. His previous
high for even-strength save percentage in a full season is .926.
The Lightning stay on top, while the Golden Knights and
Penguins move up. Plus, what each team should be working on in 2019.
NEW YORK
RANGERS (17-15-7)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Young talent getting a
chance
With the team in transition, up-and-coming players like
defenseman Neal Pionk,
23, forward Pavel
Buchnevich, 23, and rookie Filip Chytil,
19, are playing significant roles with the Rangers. Pionk leads all Rangers
defensemen in scoring with 19 points while Buchnevich and Chytil are bottom-six
forwards. If the youngsters get more opportunity as the season goes along, they
will have an opportunity to blossom and give New York a deeper attack than
anticipated.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Low
While there is some potential in the Rangers' youth, the
Blueshirts' underlying numbers hardly suggest they will be in the race. They
rank second to last in Corsi for percentage, 24th in even-strength scoring rate
and 20th in even-strength goals against per 60 minutes. Unless the youngsters
take a huge step forward and Henrik
Lundqvist gets blazing hot in the second half, it will be a
very tough road to make the playoffs.
FLORIDA PANTHERS (17-16-6)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: The Panthers have
been unlucky
It's surprising to see a team in the top 10 in shot
differential at 5-on-5 sitting nine points out of a wild-card spot, but things
simply have not bounced the Cats' way this season. They rank fifth lowest in
even-strength shooting percentage and third worst in even-strength save
percentage.
If Florida can get any semblance of steady goaltending
from James Reimer and Roberto
Luongo, and combine that with some better 5-on-5 shooting luck to
bolster their third-ranked power play, the Panthers can be dangerous down the
stretch.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Medium
high
Florida has the high-end talent to make things very
interesting if they can get a save here or there. Stars Jonathan
Huberdeau and Aleksander
Barkov are pulling their weight, producing more than a point
per game, and Mike Hoffman's
18 goals have provided the scoring boost the Cats hoped he would when acquiring
him in the offseason. A few breaks for the depth scorers would help the
Panthers could get hot.
CAROLINA HURRICANES (17-17-5)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Improving defense
and the return of Jordan Staal
Carolina has been searching for quality goaltending for a
long time. It's not clear that they have found it in journeyman Curtis
McElhinney, but he's certainly been an improvement over Scott Darling and Petr Mrazek.
McElhinney has a .924 all-situations save percentage, and has bumped Carolina's
goals against per 60 minutes at even strength up to 10th place. They also allow
the fourth fewest shots. Overall, the defensive play should be solidified by
Jordan Staal coming back from a concussion. He's posted a positive relative
Corsi percentage every season of his career.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Medium
low
For years, the Hurricanes have dominated the shot counter,
but not the scoreboard. This season is no different, as they rank No. 1 in
Corsi for percentage and scoring chance percentage, but are third worst in the
NHL in goals per 60. They do have a leg up on some of the competition: The
Canes have more regulation wins than the Panthers and Rangers, and only three
fewer than the Sabres, who hold one of the wild-card positions. If McElhinney's
stellar play in net continues, they are a team that could play quality defense
and suddenly start finding the back of the net with a handful of all those
shots.
NEW JERSEY
DEVILS (15-17-7)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Mackenzie
Blackwood can save the day
With Taylor Hall leading
the way, the Devils have a strong primary scoring attack. They are 15th in
goals per 60 minutes at even strength and 13th overall, but saw an incredibly
poor start to the season from goaltenders Cory
Schneider (.852 save percentage) and Keith Kinkaid (.901
save percentage). Top goalie prospect Blackwood, a second-round pick in 2015,
has immediately shown why he was so highly regarded, stopping 190 of 201 shots
in a seven-game stretch. He has the talent to quickly turn the fortunes of the
Devils around.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Medium
high
Of course, it's a lot to ask a 22-year-old goalie to lead
the way. It's not possible for him to sustain a .945 save percentage, and New
Jersey still lacks the depth scoring past Hall, Nico Hischier and Kyle Palmieri to
compete. Only one other forward has more than 20 points this season. But, it
would make a great story if Blackwood did lead them to the playoffs.
DETROIT RED
WINGS (15-20-7)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Dylan Larkin is
playing like a superstar
After a down 2016-17, the 2014 first-round pick bounced back
with a solid 63-point campaign last season. Now it appears he's taking the next
step, with 39 points in 42 games while playing a career-high 21:46 per game. He
ranks in the top 30 in shots per 60 minutes, just behind Filip
Forsberg and Taylor Hall.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Low
Aside from Larkin, there's very little to write home about
on the Red Wings' roster. They have the fourth worst Corsi for percentage,
22nd-ranked goal scoring rate and 19th-ranked goals against rate. It's more
likely that they will be selling off parts soon than fighting for position.
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERS (15-20-5)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: The power play has
to turn around soon
At some point a team with this much talent has to break
through on the power play. The Flyers' leader in power-play goals has just
three, and stars Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek have
combined for just two man-advantage tallies. They are likely to start producing
on more than their current 12.4 percent of chances.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Very low
Dead last in the Metropolitan Division, it would be stunning
to see the Flyers find a way to get back in the race after being 14 points
behind. It isn't just their special teams; the Flyers are also allowing 3.6
goals per game and despite some brief heroics from Carter Hart
don't seem to have any goaltending answer in sight this season.
OTTAWA
SENATORS (15-21-5)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: The Sens are scoring
goals
Following the exits of Hoffman and Erik Karlsson,
you wouldn't have expected Ottawa to rank in the top 10 in even-strength goals
per 60 minutes, but Mark Stone and Matt Duchene's
play, combined with the rise of Thomas Chabot has
resulted in Ottawa playing high-flying hockey. They have also received strong
secondary scoring from 2018 fourth overall pick Brady Tkachuk,
who has 10 goals and 10 assists in 30 games.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Almost
zero
While Ottawa's scorers have done their job, the Sens aren't
providing any help for their goaltenders. They are allowing more shot attempts
against than anyone in the NHL and the fourth most high-danger chances. Without
an elite goaltender and with Duchene possibly the next player traded out of
Ottawa, we can expect them to move into the next stage of their full rebuild.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
VANCOUVER
CANUCKS (20-20-4)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: The next wave is now
Just months after the Sedin Twins called it a career, a trio
of young players has emerged as the core of a Vancouver team that isn't going
away. Elias
Pettersson-- the No. 5 pick from 2017 and a shoo-in for the Calder
Trophy -- along with Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser have
combined for 53 goals. At 23, Horvat is leading the team in ice time and Boeser
has 28 points despite missing 13 games. When Boeser and Pettersson have been on
the ice together, the Canucks have outscored opponents 18-6.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: High
In the Pacific Division, teams don't have to be great to be
competitive. The Canucks may rank 26th in Corsi for percentage and 21st in
even-strength scoring rate, but the three young stars give the Canucks a chance
to compete for a wild-card spot that is currently held by the struggling Anaheim Ducks.
The Canucks have three more regulation wins than the Ducks.
MINNESOTA
WILD (19-17-3)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Special teams are
special
Bruce Boudreau's squad took a huge hit when defenseman Matt Dumba
suffered an injury that will keep him out long term, but the Wild can hang
around based on their power play and penalty kill. They are 10th in
man-advantage scoring and third on the penalty kill. A resurgent Zach Parise has
six power-play goals this season, matching his total from 2016-17, and 17 goals
overall. Veteran center Eric Fehr has
helped Minnesota improve its shorthanded play, while goalie Devan Dubnyk has
a terrific .922 shorthanded save percentage.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Medium
high
The quality of competition certainly opens the door for a
team with as much talent as the Wild, but it won't be easy for them to sustain
the loss of Dumba over a long period of time. They currently sit 18th in even-strength
goals for percentage. It's also probable that Dubnyk's shorthanded save
percentage will dip as the season goes along. But Minnesota could end up being
a buyer at the deadline if they continue to be a fringe team. It appears they'd
rather take shots at the playoffs rather than rebuild as long as Parise
and Ryan Suter are
still in uniform.
EDMONTON
OILERS (19-18-3)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Connor
McDavid
There have been few performances over the last two decades
that rival what McDavid has done to start this season. He's produced an
incredible 61 points in just 39 games while playing over 22 minutes per game.
When McDavid has been on the ice at even strength, the Oilers have outscored
opponents 38-27.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Medium
low
When McDavid has not been on the ice at even strength, the
Oilers have been outscored 34-51. Even a Hart Trophy-caliber performance from
the young superstar might not get the Oilers a sniff at the playoffs. With an
extreme shortage in secondary scoring, Edmonton has only four double-digit goal
scorers and ranks 26th in goal-scoring rate at even strength.
CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKS (15-21-7)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: The top two lines
The Blackhawks no longer have a top-to-bottom lineup with
quality role players potting important goals. Instead, they are as top-heavy as
any team in the league. Undersized winger Alex
DeBrincat continues to prove he's the real deal, as he
and Jonathan
Toews have dominated the puck to the tune of a 54.4 Corsi for
percentage when playing together, and Patrick Kane has
50 points in 41 games. Chicago's top talents give them a chance against all but
the deepest teams.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Low
With goaltender Corey
Crawford still out, there doesn't seem to be much hope in
Chicago for a postseason berth. Cam Ward has
a .888 save percentage and the Blackhawks are just 18th in even-strength
scoring despite quality top-end talent. They desperately need to start
rebuilding in earnest.
ST. LOUIS
BLUES (16-18-4)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: The stars haven't
gotten rolling yet
Normally Vladimir
Tarasenko is pushing for 40 goals, but in a season in which top
scorers across the league are putting up crazy numbers, he has only 11 tallies
and 11 assists in 37 games. After a 70-point season, Brayden
Schenn has just 22 in 33 games, and Jaden
Schwartz had three goals in 24 games before suffering an
injury. There's too much talent on the Blues' roster to continue to rank 26th
in goals per game.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Medium
low
Not only has production from top players been an issue, but
St. Louis's woeful goaltending has them fourth worst in the NHL in
even-strength save percentage. But the West is giving out opportunities to make
the playoffs this season. The Blues have the same goal differential as
wild-card holders Anaheim, and have won six of their last 10. Any improvement
in goaltending could put them right into the mix.
ARIZONA
COYOTES (17-21-2)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: They have to find
offense eventually
Brad
Richardson is the Coyotes' leading goal scorer on a team that
has Derek Stepan, Alex
Galchenyuk, Clayton
Keller and Michael
Grabner. How is that possible? Arizona might be able to take baby
steps forward if their top players begin to produce at all.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Almost
zero
Even with the NHL's best penalty kill, the Coyotes' forwards
would have to take such massive leaps forward to make up for poor goaltending
(20th in even-strength save percentage) in order to get anywhere close to the
race. Another rebuilding year in the desert.
LOS ANGELES
KINGS (16-23-3)
WHY THEY COULD SURPRISE US: Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty
For a decade, the Kings' two superstars have been at the
forefront of Stanley Cup champs ... and other versions that have barely made
the playoffs riding their backs. Neither is performing up to the level of the
past this season, as Kopitar has only nine goals in 40 games and Doughty has a
48.8 Corsi for percentage -- an unusually low number for him. If both got
outrageously hot in the second half, it would at least make the Kings a
challenge for top teams to face.
CHANCES THEY GET INTO THE PLAYOFF RACE: Almost
zero
The Kings rank fourth in even-strength save percentage and
still sit dead last in the West. That tells us how few offensive weapons they
have. Without a massive overhaul, Los Angeles might not be in contention for a
long time.
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