PITTSBURGH PIRATES

LINING UP TRADE VALUE WITH THE SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

The Pittsburgh Pirates have holes the team needs to fill for the 2019 season, and the San Francisco Giants have a player that could help the club for the next few seasons.

After an offseason in which the San Francisco Giants brought in Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, Bobby Evans lost his job as General Manager and Farhan Zaidi has been named the President of Baseball Operations.  The 2017 Giants won 64 games and despite the additions of two former faces of small market franchises, the club won just 73 in 2018 and are projected just 76 in 2019, or last place.  With Zaidi in place and plenty of money to spend, the Giants will have to get younger and more flexible, similar to when his Athletics acquired Khris Davis.

Not only is the Giants roster older (second highest age among hitters and above the average for pitchers), their farm system is weak, ranking 24th and being worth just $95 million in value.  They do still have a solid core; STEAMER projects three positional players (rounding error) at three wins, with one of them being worth four.  Their top pitcher, Madison Bumgarner, only projects around two wins because of the diminishing swing and miss rates and diminishing velocity.

The Pirates have the 11th best farm system in baseball, having $202 million in value, $6 million less than the 10th best system in the Dodgers and $10 million less value than the Astros at number nine.  In contrast, the Angels have the 12th best farm, being worth $177 million, $25 million less than the Pirates.

That benefits the Pirates, being able to absorb some hits in terms of prospect depth to help the team now, and the club does have four of the first 75 draft picks in the 2019 draft.  Using Baseball Prospectus’ draft surplus calculator and $8.5 million for a win, the Pirates would have a total of $28.5 million in expected surplus from their four picks (18, 37, 57, and 73).  There’s room for the club to make a move for their current and future clubs while still maintaining some depth in the farm system.

The club’s biggest need is a shortstop, which the Giants have an excellent one in Brandon Crawford, a projected 2.8 win player (essentially a three win player).  While Crawford hasn’t been an above average hitter outside of a three-year period from 2014-16, his bat projects near average with a 96 wRC+, but he plays a consistent plus defense.  He was a four win player per Baseball Prospectus, two win player per Fangraphs, and a 2.6 win player per Baseball-Reference.

For 2019, STEAMER projects Crawford for 2.8 wins, or 1.7 more wins than Kevin Newman and would be the second most valuable Pirates player.  Crawford would certainly give the Pirates a more desirable outcome, given his high level projection and the seemingly limited risk.  With a simple aging curve, Crawford projects to be worth 6.9 wins over the next three seasons.

The cost of a 25-man payroll has risen over the years, and the average yearly percent change since 2010 has been 4.79 percent, which will be the growth rate to the league per dollar.  Based on this information and Crawford’s contract details, his value in a trade is:

Brandon Crawford
Year	Age	fWAR	$/WAR	Salary	Surplus
2019	32	2.8	$8,500,000	$15,200,000	$8,600,000
2020	33	2.3	$8,906,745	$15,200,000	$5,285,513
2021	34	1.8	$9,332,953	$15,200,000	$1,599,316
					$15,484,829

Crawford being worth only $16 million should be enticing to the Pirates, as it would still give the Pirates the 11th best farm system with the acquisition cost being minimal.  But the Pirates won’t take on the $15.2 million straight up; Zaidi and the Giants would have to kick back some money, with the incentive being that they’d get a better prospect in the deal.  If the Giants kick in $3 million each, the value of Crawford increases to $25 million (and the net present value of the deal is $35 million).

Based on this assumption the Giants would kick in money, the Giants would be looking at either (these assume $9 million per win) a 50 grade position player or a 50 grade pitcher, or multiple players at 45 or 40 grades, which would spread out the risk for a franchise in major need of rebuilding up the farm.

Looking at the Giants current structure, the club would certainly need a shortstop with a trade of Crawford, and the current backup is Abiatal Avelino, a 23-year-old with no bat or upside.  Their top middle infield prospect is a 16 year-old July 2nd period signee in Marco Luciano, so the club really could use help the middle.

The Pirates have some depth in the upper levels in terms of middle infielders, as Cole Tucker being a 50 grade prospect is worth around $28 million and throw in a player currently on the 40-man to clear space (in all likelihood a reliever or Nick Kingham) and there’s a match.  But given Crawford’s age and Tucker’s timeline, perhaps the Pirates balk at that price.

Oneil Cruz would make sense for the Pirates, given the risk involved and the distance away from being Major League ready, a large discount has to be taken.  But that risk would certainly scare a team off who has a weak system in a prospect + reliever deal.  In that case, starting with Kevin Newman ($8 million, 45 FV) brings the value of Crawford down to $17 million.  Calvin Mitchell, an outfielder with a 45 grade, would also make sense despite his timeline (2017 draft pick, turns 20 in March).  The left-handed bat projects to a corner (40 current and future grades on the speed) and he hit .280/.344/.427 in A-ball this past season.

With the deal template currently $9 million short, Luis Escobar, a 22 year-old pitcher with a 45 FV grade, could be in play.  The right-hander struggles with control, but he does throw hard, though perhaps the spin rates scare off Zaidi, as his time in Los Angeles showed an interest in such a measurement for evaluations.  Escobar’s $6 million in value would only put the Pirates $3 million short, again a reliever or Kingham would make sense to round out the deal.

Adding $25 million in prospect value would move the Giants up to $120 in value with Brandon Belt being a likelihood of a trade candidate with a value of about $15 million, but again the Giants could eat money of his $51.6 million over three years to improve the return (again eating $3 million each year would make Belt’s trade value around $25 million).  Eating a total of $18 million over three years would result in the Giants adding around $50 million in prospect value, pushing them towards the 20th ranked system before deals of Will Smith and Bumgarner.

The first step for the Giants is Zaidi actually starting the turnover, and the Pirates would be a perfect match for Brandon Crawford given their need at shortstop and their ability to absorb some hit to their farm and still be in the upper half in value plus their four picks in the top 75 next season.  Add in the Giants need to improve their farm and their ability to eat some money in a deal, the two clubs should be willing to discuss the soon to be 32-year-old.